Career Averages - Mario Bautista
Career Averages - Vinicius Oliveira
Mario Bautista - Fight History
AJ thinks Sandhagen most likely wins by decision, noting that Sandhagen decision at +190 makes sense. He acknowledges the possibility of a submission again but leans toward a decision win. He mentions the fight is expected to go over 2.5 rounds and that the distance is likely.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen by decision, highlighting his elite long-range striking, footwork, and improved wrestling. He believes Sandhagen's precision and ability to create space will neutralize Bautista's pressure and clinch game. He expects a hard-fought three-round fight with Sandhagen doing more damage and avoiding takedowns.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision, citing his crafty striking, dynamic weapons, and superior submission grappling. He believes Sandhagen's footwork and distance management will give Bautista trouble, and that Bautista's volume-based style won't be enough to outwork Sandhagen. AJ also notes that Sandhagen has fought better competition and has a clear edge in the grappling exchanges.
AJ picks Sandhagen by decision in a competitive three-round affair, noting Bautista is tough but Sandhagen is too much. He wishes it were five rounds.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision in a competitive fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Sandhagen by decision at plus 180 as a prop, indicating he sees it as a likely outcome but not a finish.
AJ leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing his getup game is superior and that he won't be on his back long. He thinks Sandhagen will mix it up striking and take two out of three rounds. AJ also mentions the fight going over 2.5 rounds.
Angelo picks Mario Bautista because he believes Bautista is the better overall wrestler with incredible scrambles, and has leveled up significantly since their first fight. He notes that Sandhagen's losses are to wrestlers and Bautista is the better wrestler. He thinks Bautista will wrestle and control the fight, and that Sandhagen's striking advantage may not be enough.
Angelo thinks Mario has improved more than Cory over the years, becoming the cleaner boxer and better wrestler. He notes Cory's awkwardness could trouble Mario but believes Mario's scrambles and overall evolution give him the edge. He placed a quarter unit on Mario at +125.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by split decision. He acknowledges Sandhagen's striking advantage but notes Bautista's improved grappling and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense. He thinks Bautista can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He calls it an extremely close fight and doesn't have a strong read.
Big Brady passes on this fight entirely. He acknowledges Bautista as a live dog but lacks confidence to bet, expecting a close decision that could go to the judges. He does not make a pick.
Big Brady does not have a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a close, high-level bantamweight fight that he doesn't plan to bet on. He notes Sandhagen has better volume and tools on the feet, while Bautista has more power and can win minutes in the clinch and on the mat. He expects a split decision and sees value on Bautista at plus money, but is not committing.
Cody picks Cory Sandhagen, highlighting his superior striking, scrambling ability, and takedown defense. He notes Sandhagen's success against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Moraes, and believes Bautista's wrestling is not at that level. He expects Sandhagen to edge out a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen, citing Sandhagen's tendency to choke in big fights and his recent title fight loss. He notes that Bautista is hungry, coming off a career-best performance, and has a competitive history with Sandhagen. Levi expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans toward the underdog.
Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he believes the fight will be mostly striking and Sandhagen rarely loses striking matches. He notes that Sandhagen is more active and lands more strikes, and that Bautista's wrestling may not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's movement and volume. He thinks Sandhagen will outpoint Bautista to a decision win.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's improved boxing, cage control, and career trajectory. He sees it as a 50/50 fight but favors Bautista as the underdog due to Sandhagen's recent chin issues and Bautista's superior training environment at MMA Lab. He notes Sandhagen's slight edge in kicks and submissions but believes Bautista's advantages in close rounds will be decisive.
The host acknowledges Sandhagen won the first meeting via first-round armbar in 2019, but expects Bautista's improvements and physical confidence to help him muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, and edge out a decision.
The host believes Bautista's improvements in physicality, defensive grappling, and clinch work will allow him to make the fight ugly and grind out a decision win. He thinks Bautista can replicate the style he used against Aldo to neutralize Sandhagen's unorthodox striking.
Paul picks Sandhagen but is torn, acknowledging both fighters have improved. He sees Sandhagen's volume as the key but respects Bautista's growth. He prefers to watch live and possibly bet in-play.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista to win. He is frustrated with Cory Sandhagen, calling him a nerd and stating he is done with him. He believes Bautista will mix in grappling and be the aggressor, which will sway judges. He notes that Sandhagen often lets fights get away from him when the opponent is the lead.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)
Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 81 of 105 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 32 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 32 of 54 | 59% | 24 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mario Bautista | 20 of 54 | 37% | 6 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 9 of 28 | 32% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Mario Bautista | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-535), Bautista (+400)
Round 1
Fresh off his first career loss—a decision to champ Merab Dvalishvili—Nurmagomedov (18-1, 6-1 UFC) may not have the unbeaten shine of his brother Usman or cousin Khabib any longer, but at 29 years of age he still should have plenty left to give. He looks for a bounce-back performance against Bautista (16-2, 10-2 UFC), a tricky MMA Lab export that has already played spoiler to two recent high-profile adversaries in Jose Aldo and Patrick Mix. Can the wiry bantamweight pull off yet another upset? Referee Jason Herzog will be there for it every step of the way, including the initial fist bump.
Bautista bounces in and out, and he delivers an introductory body kick that lands with a concussive thud. Nurmagomedov snatches the limb out of the air and wrangles the MMA Lab fighter to the mat. Bautista scrambles to work his way up, and Nurmagomedov violently mat returns him. Bautista flips over to grip hold of the Russian’s left ankle, and he uses it as a possible toe hold-slash-ankle lock to crank it as hard as he can. Nurmagomedov toughs out the submission and keeps moving, preventing his foot from getting locked up or ripped off, and he establishes himself in side control. Nurmagomedov settles himself down and works on Bautista with short left hands, and Bautista’s scramble is active as can be. Nurmagomedov wraps his arm around the back of the head to keep Bautista on the floor, bowling him back over with his shoulder.
Bautista stays busy moving, bucking and shifting, and Nurmagomedov deftly stifles it all and imposes his will. The massive betting favorite shimmies over to get to the side, and he racks Bautista up with an elbow that forces an immediate change of position. Bautista bucks all the way to get to his knees and stand, and Nurmagomedov clings to him from behind with the body triangle affixed to fully control the Arizona native. Nurmagomedov works with his free right hand to soften Bautista up on the side of his melon, and he hand-fights to get his right arm free to set something up. Nurmagomedov readjusts his body lock around the waist, and Bautista turns his trunk towards the fence so he takes away the choking leverage of his adversary. Nurmagomedov happily maintains control and bops Bautista any time he can until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up and start kicking at one another. Bautista times a picture-perfect knee while Nurmagomedov is ducking, and he sends the Russian crashing to the canvas. Nurmagomedov blinks it out and goes after a takedown. Bautista backs him off and times a body shot, but Nurmagomedov is a man possessed and secures the takedown he was seeking before. The once-beaten fighter positions himself in half guard while wrapping his arms around the side of his opponent’s head, and Bautista willingly gives up his back so he can try to escape. Like before, Nurmagomedov snatches up back control and the body triangle. Bautista fights to one side and makes Nurmagomedov adjust to the other with his legs, so the MMA Lab product quickly twists to the other to roll to his knees. Nurmagomedov follows him, arms still wrapped around Bautista from behind, and Bautista scrambles and hits a brilliant switch to put Nurmagomedov on his seat.
Bautista stands back, lets Nurmagomedov stand up and wings a big right hand. Nurmagomedov counters with his own right hook, so Bautista walks him down and shoots for a takedown. They clack heads together when Bautista was aiming for a shoulder strike, and Nurmagomedov follows through and puts the underdog flat on his back. Nurmagomedov easily climbs over to side control, using his shoulder to press on Bautista’s face. Nurmagomedov follows a turning Bautista to secure his back, but Bautista still manages to get all the way around and back to his feet. With 35 seconds to go in the round, Nurmagomedov boots his man in the stomach. Bautista sticks out a jab and is countered, but he fires back and stuns the Russian for a moment. Nurmagomedov kicks him upside the head, and Bautista responds with a pair of body kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The touch of gloves is a swift one, as Bautista senses the scores could be tied or he could be down on the scorecards, and he answers the bell accordingly. Racing right at the Russian with punches, he sets up a head kick that just misses. Nurmagomedov races a left hand at him, but it is his follow-up head kick that gets Bautista’s attention even though it only partially connects. Bautista delivers a body kick, and Nurmagomedov fires back with two low kicks and a couple punches up top. The bantamweights bang their heads together again when advancing, and Nurmagomedov recovers just the quicker and pursues a level change. Bautista defends until he gets taken down, and he muscles his way back up with the wall at his side. Nurmagomedov goes for the takedown from behind, allowing Bautista to turn so he can knee him in the stomach. Nurmagomedov isolates a single and puts the MMA Lab fighter on the canvas, but only for a second before Bautista is upright once more.
The midpoint of the round is reached, and Bautista scores a pair of punches and is met with a brisk takedown that sweeps him off his feet. Nurmagomedov cannot control him on the mat, so he settles for pushing the Arizonan against the wall. Bautista rolls all the way through to escape, only for Nurmagomedov to smother him on the canvas and keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov knees his man in the side and steps over to three-quarter mount, so Bautista twists himself about. Nurmagomedov chains submissions and mat returns when able, and Bautista fights valiantly and nobly but is still being controlled with the grappling game of the Russian. Nurmagomedov goes for a single, and he runs Bautista from one end of the wall to the other to drive him back down. Official takedown numbers may be high even if control time is not nearly as substantial as it was in the previous match involving the heavyweights, and Bautista is fighting with all his might to free himself. With 13 seconds to go, he does, and he proceeds to bang it out with the Russian with swinging fists and looping high kicks. Nurmagomedov walks off and raises his arms before time expires, and the two reach the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.
Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.
The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.
Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 173 of 302 | 57% | 173 of 302 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 122 of 304 | 40% | 122 of 304 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 65 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 108 | 60% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 27 of 119 | 22% | 27 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 173 of 302 | 57% | 96 of 216 | 58 of 66 | 19 of 20 | 172 of 301 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 122 of 304 | 40% | 92 of 265 | 14 of 22 | 16 of 17 | 118 of 299 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 43 of 91 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 18 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 36 of 74 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 103 | 63% | 42 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 59 of 111 | 53% | 49 of 96 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 56 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 108 | 60% | 36 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 27 of 119 | 22% | 21 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mix (-180), Bautista (+150)
Round 1
Keith Peterson will officiate "Patchy" Mix's UFC debut. They touch gloves. Bautista wastes no time and starts punching to the body and throwing leg kicks. Bautista is throwing out jabs and straight rights at Mix. Nice right hand to the body by Bautista. Mix eats a 1-2 and hasn't been able to get anything off. Mix is starting to throw his jab, but is eating leg kicks from Bautista. Mix is backed up by a right hand from Bautista. Mix is starting to throw his own kicks and slowly getting more comfortable inside the Octagon. Nice right straight for Bautista that stings Mix. Bautista is repeatedly throwing 1-2 combinations and having success. Two minutes left. Mix throwing some half-hearted leg kicks that aren't landing. Bautista is having success going to the body. Nice body kick by Bautista. Mix is standing still and getting hit without showing much defense or doing anything offensively. Very poor first impression on the big stage. The round ends with Bautista stinging Mix with a combination.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Mix comes out throwing calf kicks. Nice body kick scores for Bautista. Bautista jabbing to both the body and head. Mix lands a solid right hand, but Bautista connects with a looping left in response. Bautista is much busier and has a far greater output so far. Mix is reacting better than in the first round, connecting with some right hooks and catching Bautista as he comes in. Mix's corner is calling for takedown attempts, but he hasn't tried to grapple at all. Bautista landing some nice jabs. Nice head kick lands by Mix. Bautista is now backing up, allowing Mix to throw a 1-2. This is a much better round for Mix. Bautista and Mix are going tit for tat, both hitting each other with stiff jabs. A big left hand lands for Bautista. Mix tries a jumping knee that is way off the mark. Bautista is bloodied below his right eye from the jabs of Mix. Bautista is coming on late and is pouring on punches, allowing him to cement this round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The final round opens with Mix being more aggressive as he knows he needs a finish. Mix goes for a desperate takedown and eats punches from Bautista as a result. Bautista is repeatedly finding a home for his right hand. Mix is now cut above his right eye. Bautista is in full control, jabbing away and outclassing Mix. Bautista eats a 1-2 but answers back with a low kick of his own. Mix lands a slapping body kick. Mix is chasing after Bautista but is unable to land much. Bautista's footwork is making a huge difference as Mix can't keep up with his movement. Mix lands a nice left straight but eats a jab. Bautista throws out a head kick that misses its mark. Nice 1-2 from Bautista. More leg kicks from Bautista. Mix lands a nice left hand and a knee with 30 seconds left to go, but it winds up being far too little. Bautista throws a jumping knee as the round ends. A deflating debut for Mix.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Patrick Mix via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.
Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.
Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.
Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.
Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.
This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)
Round 1
Once dumped unceremoniously on the prelims, cooler heads have prevailed as “The King of Rio” Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC) is now positioned firmly on the main card of UFC 307. While the beloved former featherweight king was previously ready to say farewell to the sport, he appears reinvigorated and in as great of condition as ever. The promotion opted to match him against fellow striker Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC), in what may turn out to be a battle of leg kicks. Referee Mike Beltran will preside over the bantamweights, and he watches on as they tap their fists together to say hello. Bautista is the first to land a leg kick, and he punches his way into close range. Aldo blocks a head kick and kicks the lead leg back, and he allows Bautista to buzz past him and lets go with another one of his patented low kicks. Bautista splits the guard with a right hand, and he strings a few punches together to the body before shooting in for a takedown. Aldo places his back against the cage, stifling any hopes of a takedown, and they trade knees on the inside. Bautista irritates Aldo with a number of shoulder strikes, dirty boxing his opponent and kneeing him anywhere he can find a target. Beltran asks for more activity than short strikes, and Bautista changes levels but is stuffed again. A third effort similarly falls short. Aldo looks to his corner for ideas on how to escape, and Beltran is almost ready to get involved. Bautista slashes with an elbow and scores several more knees until Aldo has had enough and he escapes. Bautista scores a knee but is met with a low kick, and he jumps forward to strike and gets Aldo’s attention. Aldo springs away, and he has a left hand brush past his face and steels himself to stop a takedown. Bautista gets back into the clinch, where he stomps on Aldo’s toes and makes it grindy. Beltran tells them to work to finish, and Aldo shoves him away. Aldo walks him down and misses with a left hook, but he snaps out two jabs and a short punch combo. Aldo blocks the counters and reaches out with a left hand, and he gets knocked back when committing to a low kick. Aldo nails Bautista with an overhand right hand, and Bautista tries to pay him back with one immediately. Bautista kicks the former champ in the ribs and dances away from a one-two to peck at Aldo. “The King of Rio” knocks Bautista back a few steps with a combination of punches, and he ducks a whizzing foot to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Fists are bumped to open the second stanza, and Aldo is ready for an advancing Bautista and lifts a knee preemptively. Bautista reaches him with a few distance strikes, and he dips down with a left and a right. A few snapping jabs shred a cut open on Bautista’s right eye, and Bautista’s head gets snapped back. Aldo tags him with a few left hands and a powerful knee, the latter landing when Bautista shot for a takedown. Aldo scores a left, and Bautista gets back going again and lines up long punches down the pipe. Aldo comes up short with another intercepting elbow, and he catches Bautista with a left and a right. Bautista walks him down and into a few more blows, and they land punches at the same time. Aldo drops his hands, and Bautista shoots for a takedown. Aldo keeps himself upright and absorbs several shoulder strikes and short blows from his opponent with his back to the cage. Beltran calls for Bautista to do more, and Bautista answers with a thumping shoulder strike and a level change. Aldo stops the second from succeeding, and he is met with a few more shoulder shots before splitting. Aldo tags Bautista with a knee, and when Bautista pays him back, Aldo gets angry. Unleashing massive power, Aldo lets his hands go, and he knocks Bautista around but cannot stun him. Bautista gets behind a jab, stabbing out his strikes until diving after a single. Aldo’s takedown defense is immaculate thus far, but he gets leaned on by the younger, more energetic fighter. Bautista lifts a leg up to try to ground him, and Aldo hops around to keep his balance before shoving Bautista away. Aldo unleashes a fury of four punches, and when going for more, Bautista surprises him with a jump knee. Aldo swings hard and misses, allowing Bautista to try and fail with one more takedown before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
Reaching the final frame, the bantamweights meet in the middle for a glove touch and a brief embrace. Aldo is still throwing heat, however, and he winds up with a right hand that comes up short. He pops out his jab a few times to follow, snapping Bautista’s head back when entering. Bautista jabs him back, and his high kick slides off the shoulder. Bautista scores a one-two, and Aldo peppers him with jabs and an overhand right. Bautista pokes out with jabs and a low kick, and Aldo’s strikes are far more impactful as Bautista reacts nearly every time he absorbs a blow. Bautista pressures forward and walks into a left hook, and he wings a right hand over the top to reply. Aldo digs a left to the body and is met with a charging takedown that pushes Aldo to the fence but no further. The Brazilian does not budge, fighting off a subsequent trip and otherwise being shoved against the fence. Bautista nearly disrupts Aldo’s balance and drags him to a knee, but Aldo pops back up as if his seat was on fire. Bautista doggedly pursues the takedown as Beltran calls for activity, and before long, there is a separation. Bautista immediately charges in for a double, and the crowd is not thrilled. Beltran does not wait long before telling Bautista to improve their position, and he nearly breaks them up but Aldo manages to do it for him. Aldo bursts into action, swinging with bad intentions and knocking Bautista back. Bautista tries to tie him up, and he drops low for a single to take the wind out of Aldo’s sails. Aldo lands two punches, catches Bautista mid-air with another and then knees his man in the gut as the final horn blares. It could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-175), Bautista (+145)
Round 1
A spot in the top 15 at bantamweight is on the line for this “featured fight of the night.” Simon (20-4, 8-3 UFC) lost in his last fight in a main event, and Bautista (13-2, 7-2 UFC) has rattled off five straight in the Octagon. The two speedy fighters will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, and they race towards one another without a glove touch in sight. As Bautista starts off with leg kicks, Simon opts to jump over one. Bautista continues spamming kicks, and one glances off the cup. Simon shakes it and signals to Smith he does not need a break. Bautista changes his trajectory and aims a kick at the head, and Simon cannot find his distance with Bautista kicking again and again. Simon times one advancing movement of his foe with a big left hand, and he clips Bautista with a right hand when Bautista does not get away in time. Bautista lances the guard with two punches, and he connects with a flying knee as well but he is the one that hits the ground. Bautista jumps back to his feet before Simon can climb on top of him, and he leaps at Simon with a knee. Simon catches him in the air and tackles him to the canvas, where he lands on top of his man and quickly gets to half guard. Simon skitters over to the side, and he threatens with a guillotine choke before Bautista scrambles back to his feet. Bautista escapes the choke and scores two big punches on the way up and out. Simon chambers and fires a pair of heavier low kicks, and he walks through a step-in knee so he can take Bautista down. Bautista fights off one attempt, and he gets away and prepares a knee when Simon comes at him. Simon takes it like a champ and keeps plowing forward, and he succeeds in pushing Bautista against the wall. Bautista fights his way out of the tie-up and chases Simon down, working on the lead leg of his opponent and sticking out a few jabs. Bautista unloads with a right hand after a jab, and he falls forward to his face. Simon lets him up so he can slug it out with him, and Bautista responds with two jabs and a body shot. Bautista aims a kick to the ribs, and he follows it with two more. Bautista rushes after his foe with a jump knee, and he gets cracked with a left hand and falls over. Bautista scrambles wildly and fights off a back take to get back upright, and Simon gives chase until the wild round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
The round kicks off with several kicks for Bautista, who spins his way into a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches. Both fighters swing with major power and do not find their home, and Simon opens up with a combination only to get countered and driven back. Simon kicks low and gets checked, and Bautista strings together five punches and keeps the pace up. Simon chambers but does not release his strikes until unloading with a left to the body, and Bautista’s volume triples him up. Bautista swings so hard with a right and a left hook that he almost goes down, and he catches himself in the process. Simon scores a right and shoots in for a double, pushing Bautista back to the wire but halted from lifting Bautista up in the air. Bautista escapes the position and chains a number of punches together before Simon can get him back. Bautista connects with a crisp elbow, and Simon gets stunned and winds up to throw back but learns that Bautista is out of the way. Bautista rips a few shots to the body that land with thumps, and Simon looks for a straight right hand. Bautista retaliates with his own straight right, and Simon sneaks forward and catches him with a knee. Simon pushes out a right hand, and Bautista belts him in the body with a powerful liver kick. Bautista drives a knee to the solar plexus and takes a left hand that bloodies his nose, and he looks for an uppercut. Simon jabs and digs a right to the body, and Bautista counters him with multiple powerful blows. Simon shakes off the cobwebs and shoots for a double, and Bautista shuts him down and pushes off. Bautista lands at the end of a right hand, and Simon gets backed off by subsequent jabs and a knee that bounces off his guard. Bautista reaches out with a right, and Simon responds with a takedown. Bautista stops it, dodges a right hand and sticks out a front kick that smacks Simon in the face right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The bantamweights are ready and rearing to go to start off the final frame, and they proceed to open up with flurries of punches. The heavy shots from Simon continue to bloody the nose of his opponent, but Bautista is accurate and putting up decent numbers. Bautista ducks under a big punch and goes after his own takedown, but Simon turns the tables and lifts him up in the air. In true Matt Hughes fashion, Simon carries Bautista from one side of the cage to the other, and he slams Bautista down on his elbow. Simon lowers himself down in half guard to squeeze with an arm-triangle choke, but Bautista’s leg fighting drags him back to guard. The two scramble madly until Bautista escapes well enough to wall-walk, and he is back up in the blink of an eye. Simon slips a punch and scores a left, and Bautista steps in with a knee that is just short. Bautista does not allow Simon to take a break, but Simon is ready and willing to trade furious. Simon continues to pursue takedowns, and Bautista fights them off and backs Simon up against the cage. Bautista dings Simon with straight punches, more content to touch than load up on anything of merit. Bautista boots Simon in the guts with a kick, and he chains punches together with cardio not an issue at all. Bautista plinks Simon with accurate punches, and Simon desperately goes for a takedown as his gas tank appears to be fading. Bautista stands him up and busts him up with a continuously flood of fists. Simon is tough and still looking for takedowns, but Bautista is a stone wall at this point and ready to throw hands. Simon gets stood up again and tries for a jump knee, and Bautista pursues a takedown to conclude the fight. He does not get it before the bell, ending one heck of a scrap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 90 of 174 | 51% | 108 of 192 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 79 of 137 | 57% | 102 of 161 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 38 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 41 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 90 of 174 | 51% | 48 of 123 | 22 of 30 | 20 of 21 | 52 of 129 | 37 of 42 | 1 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 79 of 137 | 57% | 48 of 103 | 21 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 51 of 101 | 24 of 30 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 29 of 48 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 15 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 19 of 25 | 76% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 32 of 67 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 52 | 40% | 12 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 28 of 45 | 62% | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)
Round 1
While the aforementioned Munhoz stepped up last month to save that fight, Blackshear (14-5-1, 2-1-1 UFC) could make history by becoming the first UFC fighter in the modern era to win two fights within seven days – obviously excluding tournament fights from the days of old. Just a week ago, Blackshear hit a twister submission on Jose Johnson, so Bautista (12-2, 4-2 UFC) will have to be on his toes as he goes from expecting to fight striker Cody Garbrandt to someone in Blackshear that holds most of his wins by submission. Keeping this bantamweight scrap on the up-and-up will be referee Bryan Miner, and it starts with a sporting glove touch. Blackshear is the one to push the pace immediately, and he parries a few jabs and strikes back with a leg kick. Bautista responds with his own leg kick that he turns his hips into, and Blackshear strides forward through a second. Blackshear kicks the side, and they come together throwing haymakers. Neither lands with anything cleanly, and Blackshear rolls when Bautista launches a huge right hand. Blackshear crashes the pocket and ties Bautista up in order to go after a trip takedown from behind, and Bautista keeps his balance and works his way to the fence. Blackshear peppers his man with knees while maintaining the body lock, and he succeeds in slinging the MMA Lab product down to the canvas. Bautista’s guard is active the moment he hits the floor, and he works his way to his seat and the cage wall. Blackshear lifts one leg all the way up in the air for a complete split, and Bautista wrenches his leg free and stands back up. Punching his way out of the clinch, Bautista engages another from a different angle so that he can measure “Da Monster” with a knee on the chin. Blackshear connects with a calf kick that nearly trips Bautista up, and Bautista recovers and belts Blackshear in the side of the head with a right hand. Blackshear kicks the body and shoots in for a takedown, and he drops Bautista to one knee but cannot keep him there for more than a couple seconds. As Blackshear circles around, he takes the back and kicks Bautista’s legs out from beneath him to pull off a mat return. Bautista scrambles brilliantly to turn himself around and press himself on top of Blackshear, who is going after another takedown. Bautista snatches this up to secure a guillotine choke, and Blackshear is not remotely concerned as he motions a thumbs-up before pulling his neck out. Both men fight back to their feet, and Blackshear misses with a short elbow as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Round 2
The 135ers touch gloves at the last second, and Blackshear starts off the round with a chopping leg kick. Bautista swings hard back at him, with punches that come extremely close but do not connect. Bautista loads up on punches, and Blackshear crowds him and considers a body lock before eating an elbow on the mug. Bautista turns the tables on him by shooting in for a double, and he clasps his hands but is unable to ground the taller Blackshear. Blackshear cracks Bautista with several short but powerful elbows on the inside, and Bautista gives him one back to break apart. Bautista lashes out with a kick on the calf, and he springs forward with a one-two that is intercepted with a leg kick coming his way. Blackshear ties his opponent up and jams him against the fencing, and he plants an elbow on the ear. Both men wildly jockey for position before releasing their pummels, and Bautista comes out firing with a head kick that brushes past Blackshear’s hair. Blackshear doubles up on three low inside leg kicks, and he chambers and fires one to the body to keep Bautista guessing. Bautista replies with body shots that set up a takedown entry, and Blackshear shuts it down and turns him around in the clinch. The two both connect with short elbows before splitting up, and Blackshear hunts for a takedown in the open cage but shuts it down when Bautista stops him. Bautista gets off a right hand, and Blackshear appears to be slowing and is less elusive than the previous frame. Blackshear shoots in for a double, and he takes Bautista off his feet. Bautista immediately explodes back to his feet, and the two get back to striking range. Blackshear splits the guard with a right hand, and Bautista returns fire with a left hook. Blackshear catches a kick, and Bautista pulls it back and strikes to the lead leg. The two clinch up, and Bautista pursues a single. When Blackshear stops it, Bautista wings an elbow, and Blackshear ducks it and strafes to the side. The round ends with Bautista giving chase.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Round 3
There is a final glove touch to commence the final frame. Bautista pushes the pace, and he racks a right hand on the temple. Blackshear wears it well but is putting his back to the cage. Blackshear uses his range to keep Bautista at bay, but Bautista reaches him with several flush right hands. Blackshear is slowing down considerably, while Bautista is finding his home with his big right hand more and more. Bautista pursues a takedown, and Blackshear puts his back flat against the fence to stifle it. Bautista gets off a single elbow before backing off, but he meanders right back to tie his adversary up and go for another level change. Blackshear shuts this down, and he pushes out a few jabs before Bautista shoots again. This time, Blackshear is unable to halt it, and Bautista quickly slides around to take his foe’s back. Bautista gets one hook in as Blackshear pushes his foot off the cage, and Blackshear uses his leverage to turn himself over to his knees. Bautista is a 135-pound weight on his back, keeping Blackshear from standing up for more than a second. Bautista attacks the body with a knee, and he drags Blackshear back down to secure partial back control. Bautista finds himself somehow in a twister setup position, but instead of attempting it, he lands ground-and-pound. Both men fight back to their feet as Blackshear scrambles with all his might, Blackshear appears fresher now and rails Bautista with a straight right hand. Bautista crumbles to the mat, but he is able to recover and open his guard up when Blackshear climbs into it. This allows Bautista to hit a sweep, and he puts Blackshear on his back with seconds left in the fight. A few strikes from the MMA Lab export conclude the match, and it is entirely possible that Blackshear will be the first fighter in modern UFC history to notch two wins within a week.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Da’Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.
Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.
Vinicius Oliveira - Fight History
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira (Lock Dog) over Andre Fili, citing Oliveira's relentless pace and work rate. He notes Oliveira is always moving forward, throwing strikes, and mixing in takedowns, which leads to high DFS scores. He worries about Fili's low fight IQ and tendency to abandon game plans, but acknowledges Fili's wrestling experience. He believes Oliveira's busy style will overwhelm Fili.
AJ sees Andre Fili as a live underdog at +200, believing Fili can catch Oliveira with straight punches. He notes Oliveira's awkwardness and potential quit after a broken arm, and thinks Fili's recent performance against Delgado shows he's sharp. AJ doubts Oliveira's move up to 145 and thinks Fili deserves respect.
AJ picks Andre Fili as an underdog, doubting Oliveira's move to 145 after a broken arm and loss. He believes Fili can outbox him, being taller and longer, and that Oliveira's size bullying won't work at featherweight. He calls the -285 line on Oliveira crazy.
AJ picks Fili as an underdog, citing Oliveira's poor defense, recent broken arm, and move up in weight. He thinks Fili's veteran savvy, reach, and clean punching will be key, and expects a competitive decision win or possibly a knockout.
AJ picks Andre Fili as an underdog, arguing that Oliveira's bullying style won't work at 145 where he loses size advantage. He notes Fili is a technical striker with good footwork and has looked sharp against tough opponents. He expects Fili to outpoint Oliveira, possibly by split decision, and calls Fili his underdog lock.
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira (Lock Dog) over Andre Fili, citing Oliveira's relentless pace and work rate. He notes Oliveira is always moving forward, throwing strikes, and mixing in takedowns, which leads to high DFS scores. He worries about Fili's low fight IQ and tendency to abandon game plans, but acknowledges Fili's wrestling experience. He believes Oliveira's busy style will overwhelm Fili.
Angelo picks Oliveira but is hesitant, worried that Fili might finally live up to his potential. He thinks Oliveira will outwork Fili with pressure, takedowns, and volume, and expects the fight to go the distance. He has a small bet on Oliveira and notes that Oliveira's last loss was to a top contender.
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, citing his pressure and pace as key in a three-round fight. He has concerns about Oliveira's takedown defense against Andre Fili's wrestling, but still believes Oliveira's chaos and aggression will be too much. He notes he was more confident when Oliveira was fighting Giga Chikadze.
Cody picks Andre Fili as a dog, citing his reach advantage, veteran savvy, and improved wrestling. He believes Fili can implement a game plan of jabbing, matadoring, and scoring takedowns, exploiting Oliveira's wild, loopy punches and poor takedown defense. He notes Oliveira's first fight at featherweight and potential cardio issues.
Connor picks Fili, noting that Oliveira's style of marching forward with his face exposed is a liability against a technical veteran like Fili. He points out Fili has a fantastic shot and underrated head kick, and can replicate what Mario Bautista did to Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Fili's inconsistency but believes he can suck Oliveira into mistakes.
Lucrative James picks Vinicius Oliveira to win, highlighting Oliveira's unpredictable striking, explosive power, and speed advantage moving up to featherweight. He notes that Andre Fili, while tricky and durable, gets dropped often and has a questionable chin. James predicts Oliveira will land a knockout, as Fili's reaction time may not handle Oliveira's unorthodox angles.
Oliveira is a violent, aggressive striker who can finish. Fili struggles against aggressive fighters and is not a finishing threat. Oliveira should dictate the pace and land big shots, likely winning by knockout.
Oliveira will create chaos and find a finish over Fili within two rounds, as Fili doesn't react well to aggressive fighters like Oliveira.
Paul leans toward Oliveira, thinking he might clip Fili with a knockout, but is not confident. He notes Oliveira's power and size but acknowledges his recent submission loss and Fili's wrestling improvements. He seems to prefer Fili as a value play but doesn't fully commit.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili to win, possibly by decision or knockout. He believes Fili is better everywhere technically, with superior stand-up, wrestling, and conditioning. He notes Oliveira relies on early KO and will fade, while Fili has experience at higher weight and a good chin. He thinks Fili can counter Oliveira's wild offense and mix in takedowns.
Zane picks Oliveira because he is much more used to facing adversity and can walk through Fili's shots. He notes Fili has a tendency to leave himself open when countering and can be caught. Zane acknowledges Fili has a clean path to win but doubts he'll stick to it. He also mentions Oliveira's power and durability as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)
Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 49 of 151 | 32% | 54 of 156 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 1 | 96 of 232 | 41% | 102 of 238 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 29 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 22 of 69 | 31% | 22 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 4 of 26 | 15% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 1 | 41 of 81 | 50% | 47 of 87 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 16 of 58 | 27% | 16 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 33 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 49 of 151 | 32% | 33 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 49 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 96 of 232 | 41% | 52 of 161 | 26 of 50 | 18 of 21 | 79 of 207 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 29 of 67 | 43% | 18 of 52 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 22 of 69 | 31% | 12 of 47 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 4 of 26 | 15% | 2 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 41 of 81 | 50% | 27 of 65 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 18 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 16 of 58 | 27% | 13 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 33 of 82 | 40% | 13 of 49 | 12 of 24 | 8 of 9 | 30 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-175), Phillips (+145)
Round 1
Wrapping up the unpaid portion of the event, two speedy bantamweights collide. While they are both ranked in the UFC’s top 15 at 135 pounds, the losing party may fall off on Monday or Tuesday. Phillips (12-3, 6-2 UFC) needs to get back in the win column, but to do so he has to outhustle heavy-handed Brazilian “LokDog” Oliveira (22-3, 3-0 UFC). The two will be joined in the Octagon by referee Chris Hill, and they opt against touching gloves while he watches on.
Oliveira says hello with a head kick rather than bumping gloves, and this fires up Phillips. Phillips strikes back with his own high kick and flurry of punches, hurting the Brazilian and keeping his defenses ready to stop the incoming takedown. Phillips hurts “LokDog” with another right hand, springing round side to side and pecking his foe with sharp jab and a body shot. Oliveira whiffs on a big left hook, and Phillips fires off a wheel kick that is too high and misses the target. Phillips’ right hands stagger Oliveira twice, and Oliveira has to shake it off but has his hands low. Oliveira walks Phillips down, absorbing single targeted strikes while not connecting on much power. “LokDog” gets off a front kick, and he takes a right hand on the temple. When Phillips misses on a punch, Oliveira tries to chase him down, but “The Matrix” is elusive as ever.
Oliveira drives a front kick that sounds like it ricocheted off the cup, but Phillips does not express concern and shoots in for a takedown. Oliveira staves it off and absorbs a few kicks to the midsection. Phillips is on his bouncing bike, avoiding the worst of the Brazilian’s right hands while not letting the kicks reach him either. Phillips goes toto the body and head, and Oliveira lines up a kick to the ribs. Phillips slips punches, lands his own and drives a knee to the chin that stuns Oliveira for a second. Oliveira shrugs and goes back to chasing Phillips with his hands low. Oliveira tosses out kicks from both legs, and he lowers himself down to hurl bungalows. Phillips takes the power cleanly and tries to keep him at bay with kicks, but Oliveira is starting to time and catch them. Oliveira kicks low, and Phillips jumps over it and springs away from a spinning back kick. Phillips scores a knee and falls over, and he gets back up and finds Oliveira chasing him with attacks. Phillips defends with his back to the wall as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 2
Phillips starts off the round with is own head kick to mirror what Oliveira did in the previous round, and he gets away from the wild kicks of his opponent that are feet away from his intended target. The elusive Phillips stays light on his heels, only for Oliveira to wind up a right hand that sends him flying. “The Matrix” gets back up, takes another huge right hand and then turns away and gets kicked in the face. Oliveira continues to bombard Phillips with attacks, bowling him over and finding himself lording over Phillips with standing-to-ground punches. Oliveira lowers himself in the guard, and he positions himself flat on his adversary. Oliveira briefly flirts with an arm-triangle choke until sitting up to adjust his position, and Phillips kicks him off in the chest and stands back up. Oliveira tries to hold him down or wrap up a sub, but Phillips is free and out of danger.
Oliveira tries to bring back the danger, clubbing Phillips with looping punches including a left hand that stings Phillips again. Phillips works his way back to his feet, and Oliveira stands in front of him, hands down, taking deep breaths. The Brazilian explodes back into his offense, tagging Phillips with punches that “The Matrix” would have evaded previously. He ducks a spinning wheel kick and tags Phillips with three punches down the forward bow. Oliveira kicks low and swings high, and when Phillips hits him back, he does not budge. “LokDog” tries to catch the kick, chest heaving, and he fights off a takedown and trips Philips up to put him on his back. Oliveira is pushed off when landing some ground strikes, but he hurls himself back into top position. The round ends with Oliveira riding out this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
Oliveira motions to the crowd to pump them up, and bows at his opponent. They resume with five minutes left to battle it out, and Oliveira starts by walking Phillips down. Phillips remains on his bike, kicking and probing with single strikes while trying to avoid the booming blows aimed at his face. Oliveira dodges a wheel kick and plods forward, slamming his shin on Phillips’ calf and drawing a short limp from him. Phillips keeps moving while Oliveira is going after him, with his head kick blocked before Oliveira gets to him and belts him in the face with three punches. “LokDog” hammers the front leg again, takes a body shot and misses on his counters. They both let go with big right hands, and Oliveira’s calf kick does further damage. Oliveira misses on a few punches and a high kick, while Phillips is jabbing aplenty. Phillips scores a body kick, and Oliveira punches him in the chest back. Once more, the Brazilian attacks the front leg, and movement from Phillips is starting to dwindle.
As Phillips tries to push his way forward, Oliveira drills him with a close-range spinning back kick to the chest. Oliveira races forward behind looping hooks, and his spinning wheel kick misses the mark. Phillips kicks him in the face, and Oliveira still keeps his hands down and shrugs off anything that catches him. Oliveira tries to connect with three big punches, and he ducks down and shoulder-checks his adversary. Phillips tries to back him off with hooks, and Oliveira ducks, moves and kicks him. The Brazilian dodges, weaves, connects and shoots for a takedown. Phillips shuts the latter down but eats a hard kick on the way out. Oliveira nods when he gets elbowed in the face, because he has a plan: punch Phillips in the face. The plan succeeds. Again and again. Phillips keeps backpedaling but is featuring his jab more than usual, and he mixes in a few side kicks to not let “LokDog” get to him. Oliveira bull-rushes him with punches, tackles Phillips to the mat and is bounced back to his feet. He proceeds to chase Phillips around the cage until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Kyler Phillips via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, calling him a dog who has beaten better competition than Kyler Phillips. He notes Oliveira's aggression, power, and takedown defense. He is surprised by the -180 line and considers it a gift, suggesting it could be parlayed.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Vinicius Oliveira due to Kyler Phillips' poor cardio. He believes Phillips wins the first round dominantly but fades, allowing Oliveira to take over in later rounds. He predicts a split decision for Oliveira, though he dislikes the pick.
Connor picks Vinicius Oliveira based on his relentless pressure, durability, and ability to bully opponents despite defensive flaws. He notes that Oliveira's aggressive style and strength make him difficult to wrestle, and Kyler Phillips tends to gas under pressure. Connor believes Oliveira's power and intimidation will overwhelm Phillips, who lacks knockout power and often fades late.
The host sees this as a perfect matchup for Oliveira to showcase dominance, citing his performances against Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov. He expects Oliveira to shut down Phillips's grappling and striking and produce a round three knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Vinicius Oliveira over Kyler Phillips, predicting a third-round finish. He criticizes Phillips' inability to adjust and his tendency to fade in later rounds, as seen against Rob Font and Howie PA. Oliveira is praised for his pace, durability, and pressure, having schooled Ricky Simon and broken Said Nurmagomedov. The Guru believes Oliveira will break Phillips down and finish him, comparing the matchup to Oliveira's win over Nurmagomedov.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oliveira due to his pressure and power. He notes that Oliveira's flat-footed style makes him hard to take down, and Phillips' tendency to gas under pressure is a key factor. Zane also mentions that Phillips is not a knockout puncher, which favors Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 69 of 111 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 43 of 94 | 45% | 68 of 125 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 7:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 38 of 79 | 48% | 18 of 54 | 13 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 37 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 43 of 94 | 45% | 24 of 63 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 13 | 31 of 74 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 13 of 38 | 34% | 3 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 21 of 45 | 46% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 40 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 13 of 20 | 65% | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 19 of 35 | 54% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
They move the line forward in the 135-pound weight class, as Nurmagomedov (18-3, 7-2 UFC) and Oliveira (21-3, 2-0 UFC) meet in a pivotal bantamweight attraction. Hatley officiates. Oliveira steps forward, eats a leg kick and uncorks a left hook. Nurmagomedov stays light on his feet and sends a kick glancing off the Brazilian’s forehead. A spinning back kick to the body sends Oliveira to the canvas. He gets to his feet, only to absorb a stout low kick. Nurmagomedov threatens a guillotine in a scramble, then separates. Another powerful low leg kick from the Russian. Oliveira ducks a spinning backfist. Nurmagomedov briefly secures a takedown, but Oliveira gets back to his feet and drives forward in the clinch. Midway through the round. Oliveira scores with knees to the legs. Inadvertent eye poke from the Brazilian results in a pause. Hatley restarts it. Slapping head kick lands from Nurmagomedov. Chopping overhand right from Nurmagomedov misses and an accidental head butt knocks Oliveira off-balance. He gets back to his feet, eats a flying knee and manages to score a takedown. Oliveira navigates the guard and scores with ground-and-pound. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet. The round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmegomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Round 2
Oliveira steps forward, and they trade body kicks. Nurmagomedov throw a kick high, only to get blocked. Leg kick from the Russian, who ducks in, shoot on the hips and hunts a takedown. Oliveira denies his efforts. A clinch battle ensues. Knee up the middle on the break from Nurmagomedov. Oliveira presses the issue behind punches and executes a takedown. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet without much issues and gets his kicks in gear in the center of the cage. Right hand over the top from the Russian draws a thumbs up from Oliveira. Nurmagomedov complains about an eye poke, leaves his guard down and eats a few punches for his troubles. He circles behind Oliveira, resets and secures a brief takedown. Output an issue for Nurmagomedov, who appears to be tiring. Oliveira moves forward behind punches from both hands and lands a glancing uppercut, then misses on a wild spinning backfist. Weary punches from both men to end the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
Anyone’s fight with five minutes to go. Oliveira presses forward behind a body kick and punches. Nurmagomedov slips throwing a kick. Oliveira dives in top position and works in full guard. He scores with short punches. Nurmagomedov scrambles from underneath. Oliveira draws a warning for grabbing the cage and another for strikes to the back of the head. He powers into half guard and briefly achieves full mount. Nurmagomedov escapes and snatches a single-leg. Oliveira sprawls and circles, then locks in a brabo choke. He bails and throws elbows instead. Ninety seconds left. Oliveira connects with a knee to the body on the kneeling Nurmagomedov. The momentum has certainly shifted. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet but looks gassed. His movements are woefully labored. Oliveira doubles up on right hooks and connects with a side kick to the body. Nurmagomedov scores with a spinning backfist, but his opponent appears unmoved. Oliveira sprawls on a takedown attempt from the Russian and wheels behind him with 30 seconds remaining. Nurmagomedov clings to a single-leg but has neither the energy nor wherewithal to do anything with it.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Said Nurmagomedov—Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, noting his length, durability, and creativity. He believes Oliveira's chaotic style and takedown defense (defended 9 takedowns against Ricky Simon) will trouble Said Nurmagomedov. He worries that Oliveira's recklessness could lead to a submission, but thinks his aggression and power will be enough.
Big Brady is impressed with Said Nurmagomedov's striking and submission game. He thinks Vinicius Oliveira is hitable and has been finished in all his losses. Brady predicts Nurmagomedov will catch Oliveira with a spinning attack or submit him, possibly via a club-and-sub. He calls Nurmagomedov a finisher and expects a second-round submission.
Connor picks Nurmagomedov, believing his well-rounded game and wrestling will overcome Oliveira's wild aggression. He notes that Oliveira is a formless bully who cuts a lot of weight, but Nurmagomedov has the tools to neutralize him and find submissions. However, he acknowledges that Oliveira's chaotic style could make the fight uncomfortable and that Nurmagomedov has struggled with physical pressure in the past.
James picks Oliveira to win, citing Nurmagomedov's poor cardio and tendency to gas out, as seen in recent fights. He believes Oliveira's pressure, size, and strength will overwhelm Nurmagomedov in later rounds. He notes Nurmagomedov's submission threat (ninja choke) but thinks Oliveira can survive and win by decision or late knockout. He sees Oliveira's trajectory rising while Nurmagomedov's is declining.
Oliveira's output and volume will cause Nurmagomedov trouble, as Nurmagomedov is more reliant on finishes. If he can't get Oliveira out of there early, he will struggle with the volume coming back. Oliveira is expected to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov in a close fight. He notes Oliveira is rangy and well-rounded, but Nurmagomedov has finishing potential and experience. He worries about Nurmagomedov's performance against Jonathan Martinez but believes he can win the first two rounds and edge a decision. He mentions Oliveira's short-notice loss to Bernardo Sopaj as a factor.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, agreeing that his technical edge and wrestling should prevail. He notes that Oliveira's lack of defense and tendency to scramble hard will give Nurmagomedov opportunities. However, Zane warns that Oliveira's size and pace could cause problems, and that Nurmagomedov has a history of slowing down under physical pressure. He still sees Nurmagomedov as the rightful favorite.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)
Round 1
At long last, UFC 303 is upon us, but not how many would have hoped. In the weeks prior to the event, the final three bouts on the lineup transformed dramatically. Before we get to those, there will be 10 other matchups pleasing fight fans throughout the billing, with some fascinating stylistic clashes and others that promise immediate violence. We start off in the bantamweight division, where perennial contender Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) looks to get back in the win column after a rare skid. He faces high-flying Brazilian Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC), who has seen 19 of his 23 pro outings end by knockout, win or lose. Referee Mark Smith is on call for the first fight of the night, geared up for what could be something wild. There is no fist bump to get things going, perhaps in part to the fiery weigh-ins the night before. The two feint and fake at one another in the opening 20 seconds, and Oliveira lunges for a few strikes but misses the mark. Oliveira prods out a front kick to the midsection and skirts away, his hands low as he aims a low calf kick. Simon reaches him with two punches up top, and Oliveira slips away from the rest. The Brazilian misses the mark with a jumping front kick, but his leg kick that follows does connect. Simon rushes him to get off a few punches before evading the counter. Oliveira uses his front kick as a jab, and he follows one with a rifling one-two down the middle. Oliveira switches stances regularly, keeping Simon guessing and flicking out a sharp left and a heavy right. Simon keeps his guard up to defend the worst of the blows, and he slams a low kick on the rear shin before crashing the pocket to sling “Lok Dog” to the canvas. Oliveira jumps right back up and stabs out a right hand that gets Simon’s attention, and Simon tags him with a counter that makes Oliveira drop his hands and march forward like a Terminator. Oliveira lets Simon have it with a number of unanswered leg kicks, and he whiffs on a head kick. Simon gets off a right hand, and Oliveira jabs him back. Oliveira walks through jabs, taking one on the nose and shrugging his shoulders before loosing a head kick that pounds into the guard. Oliveira gets off another head kick that nails the guard, and Simon dips down and lands a body shot that skips off the cup. Oliveira signals to Smith that he is fine, and he gets back to a stalking mode where his hands are low and he is swinging hard. Simon rushes at him to tie him up, but Oliveira wants nothing to do with it. Simon times a right hand as Oliveira ducks, and Oliveira shakes it off and tosses out two kicks. Simon snaps the head back as a gob of saliva launches from the mouth of “Lok Dog,” and they trade hands until the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
Oliveira marches out of his corner, shouting something at Simon to get started. Oliveira’s hands low, he engages in a brief slugfest, and a left hand from Simon smashes into his ear and breaks open the cauliflower, resulting in a trickle of blood streaming down his neck. Oliveira laughs off anything Simon throws at him and lobs back hooks, and the two end up in the clinch until “Lok Dog” wants to push off and swing hands. Simon shoots through the hips with a solid double-leg takedown entry, and he lands on top comfortably. Oliveira keeps moving, and he scrambles back to his feet without issue. Simon ducks a punch and lifts Oliveira off the ground to slam him down to a knee, and when Oliveira tries to recover, Simon looks to take his back standing. Simon lets loose with a sharp elbow from a close proximity, and Oliveira pushes off and takes a deep breath. The punches from the Brazilian are labored less than two minutes into the second round, although his leg kicks do keep landing. Oliveira is frustrated about a warning to close his fingers, and he snaps out a jab that draws a frown from the Washington native. Simon looks for his own jab, all while trying to meander around the unorthodox looping punches from “Lok Dog.” Oliveira goes all power, and Simon blocks the strikes and drives him back with a few straight punches and a body shot. Simon attempts a takedown, and Oliveira stonewalls him and pursues a spinning wheel kick that Simon evades. Oliveira chains several strikes together including a few leg kicks, and he stumbles and returns to his feet to keep attacking. A few punches from Oliveira get through to shake up Simon, who escapes out the side and whips a head kick at the Brazilian’s melon. Oliveira takes it without issue and swings back with bad intentions, and he defends a takedown shot and uses rangy strikes to get to Simon. As Oliveira lazily tosses out calf kicks, Simon checks a few, and Oliveira staggers back, compromised from the defense. Simon rushes at him, letting his hands go. The two trade leather until the bell rings, and Simon barks at his opponent. Oliveira does not know what to do when hearing this, and he punches Simon in the face well after the round ended. Smith drags him to the corner while shouting at him, and cooler heads prevail to get to the third round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
Physicians come in to assess the damage of Oliveira’s leg, and he is cleared to continue. Oliveira rushes out of his corner once more, but this time, Simon meets him in the middle to trade with him. Simon ducks the punch and lets go with a kick, and he engages in a back-and-forth session of strikes with him coming out slightly better. Simon pushes Oliveira back, and he checks a kick as Oliveira shakes his head uncomfortably. Simon leads off with punches, and Oliveira pushes off and a finger jabs into Simon’s eye. Oliveira shakes his finger as if to say it was from a punch, and Smith does not call anything. Simon fails on one takedown attempt, and his second is much deeper but he is spun around on the fence. Oliveira breaks free and jabs out with a front kick, circling to the left and switching stances regularly. Oliveira sticks out several jabs in an effort to launch a big right hand to follow, and he jabs the body and starts showboating and raising his hands to signal for Simon to fight him. Oliveira blocks a head kick and gives him one back, and he motions to Simon that his was much more effective. Oliveira walks Simon down, backing off only to block the offense his way, and he loops a left hand over the top. When Oliveira lets go with two punches, Simon shoots in for a double, and “Lok Dog” shuts it down and strings a number of punches and a kick together. Simon cannot reach his man, and Oliveira tags him back and raises his arms in the air to celebrate. Oliveira lands a few shots and looks over to his corner in a Max Holloway-esque display, and he decides to change things up and take Simon down. Oliveira backs off to stand back up, and he uses several unusual strikes including a kick behind his other leg to mess with Simon. Oliveira lands a head kick right at the bell, and the two stop fighting and hug it out to squash any beef that may have developed between them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Oliveira | 1 | 67 of 144 | 46% | 88 of 170 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 45 of 86 | 52% | 92 of 146 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 7 of 31 | 22% | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 33 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 46 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Vinicius Oliveira | 1 | 43 of 82 | 52% | 43 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Oliveira | 67 of 144 | 46% | 39 of 91 | 11 of 20 | 17 of 33 | 49 of 112 | 3 of 13 | 15 of 19 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 45 of 86 | 52% | 42 of 81 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 24 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinicius Oliveira | 7 of 31 | 22% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 14 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 14 of 26 | 53% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | |
| 2 | Vinicius Oliveira | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 15 of 19 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 18 of 24 | 75% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 20 | |
| 3 | Vinicius Oliveira | 43 of 82 | 52% | 24 of 54 | 6 of 10 | 13 of 18 | 42 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Benardo Sopaj | 13 of 36 | 36% | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A
Round 1
It’s back-to-back 135-pound contests of Zahabi-Basharat and now Oliveira (19-3, 0-0 UFC) vs. Sopai (11-2, 0-0 UFC), with this pairing between UFC debutants. Both fighters do not like to involve the judges often, with “Lok Dog” posting a finish rate of 89%, and Albania’s Sopai countering with 91%. While the final bell might not play a factor, referee Keith Peterson almost certainly will before it is all said and done. Ahead of the action, there is a no-nonsense fist bump to commence this short-notice contest. Oliveira introduces himself with a rangy body kick, and he stalks forward with a sweeping leg kick. Sopai replies with a high kick that whizzes past his foe’s head, and Oliveira kicks him on the calf two more times. Oliveira aims a side kick to the knee, and keeps is guard up to defend from another head kick. The two crash together, and their excitement causes them to flail madly and miss wide on both sides. Oliveira goes to chase after his opponent, and Sopai chops him down with an inside low kick. Oliveira winds up with a power punch, and Sopai gets him back with another kick. Oliveira spins his man around with a leg kick, and Sopai tries and fails to wing a right hand when he spins about. Oliveira chips away with his calf kicks, keeping a safe range from the lunging Sopai. Oliveira spins for a wheel kick, and Sopai intercepts him and tackles him to the canvas. Sopai jumps to side control, and Oliveira counters with a heel hook attempt. Sopai lowers himself down to thwart the submission setup, and he settles down inside of the Brazilian’s guard. Oliveira throws up an armbar to threaten from his back, and Sopai backs off and lets them stand back up. Sopai chases after the Brazilian and lays into him with a huge right hand, and Oliveira responds with a head kick and a hard right hand to follow. Sopai winds up on power punches, blocks a head kick and scoots back to dodge a leg kick. Oliveira aims a kick that slaps into the guard, and Sopai chops his lead leg with a kick before charging to land a takedown. Sopai lands in full mount, but Oliveira bucks him back to the guard. Oliveira hacks with elbows from his back and kicks Sopai off of him, but Sopai lowers himself and smacks Oliveira in the face several times until the horn stops the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Round 2
The bantamweights clap hands to re-engage, and Oliveira starts off with a leg kick. Sopai aggressively hunts for a takedown, and when Oliveira counters with a trip, Sopai is able to bowl his man over and set him down. Oliveira turns to his side and then gives up his back, and Sopai wraps a hook around the waist and starts slamming the Brazilian in the side of the head with right hands. Sopai clobbers his fading opponent with punches and occasional elbows, and Peterson looks closely at the undefended strikes adding up. Oliveira keeps turning, and he gets flattened out briefly as Sopai hammers him with ground-and-pound. Sopai allows Oliveira to turn all the way around and follows him every step of the way, claiming Oliveira’s back once more and slamming down fierce right hands. Sopai sits up and rides Oliveira’s back like a professional bull rider, and he beats on Oliveira with several more right hands. Oliveira stands up with Sopai still on his back, and Sopai threatens with a rear-naked choke when he sees the opening. Oliveira grabs hold of one arm and slings Sopai over, and he chucks Sopai on his back. Oliveira unleashes a fury of power strikes, hurting Sopai and stepping into a partial mount until Sopai muscles his way back to his feet. Oliveira wrenches him away from the wall and climbs into top position with about a minute to go, and he drives down standing-to-ground punches and elbows that do some serious damage. Oliveira flattens himself down to grab hold of an arm-triangle choke, and he drives down punches and elbows until Sopai kicks him off. Sopai stands back up and walks into a head kick, and Oliveira races after him throwing hands. Sopai retaliates with a big punch, and he gets blasted with a head kick as he turns away before the round ends. When the round does conclude, Sopai puts his hands on his waist, and he appears totally exhausted.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to start the last round, and Oliveira walks Sopai down. When Sopai misses with a punch, Oliveira flails with several punches and a leg kick that does connect. Oliveira’s wild offense largely misses, and Sopai appears to still be catching his wind, as he only offers an occasional single strike. Oliveira charges forward with a right hand, and Sopai’s legs are barely beneath him as he partially absorbs a high kick. Oliveira drills him with two right hooks in rapid succession, and Sopai takes a sharp exhale in response. Oliveira meanders forward, no concern for his physical well-being, and he throws everything he has into every one of his strikes. Sopai allows most of them to soar past him, but the ones that do connect hurt him. Oliveira lands a few leg kicks as well, and he turns away to his corner and then lances Sopai with a few straight punches. Sopai is sucking wind as he tries to give something back, but Oliveira’s offense forces him to backpedal constantly. Oliveira winds up with a fierce right hand, and Sopai staggers back to the wall. Oliveira follows it with a leg kick, and he dings Sopai with another right. Oliveira loads up on power right hands and sweeping leg kicks, and Sopai is displaying his toughness but is getting knocked around the cage. Oliviera lands yet another big right hand, and Sopai bounces off the cage wall and offers back a single jab. Oliveira shoots down for a takedown, and when that fails, he swings inaccurately. Sopai reaches him with a swiping left hook, and Oliveira chops at his leg and belts him with a left hand that sends Sopai staggering back. Sopai turns away, his hands down, and the Brazilian sees his opening.
Oliveira sprints at his opponent, leaping in the air with and colliding in Sopai’s chin with about as clean of a flying knee as anyone will ever see. Sopai collapses lifelessly to the mat like a puppet whose strings have been cut, and Oliveira strides off, knowing there is nothing more he needs to do today but sign the check for his post-fight bonus.
Chalk this up as an immediate “Knockout of the Year” frontrunner, with the brutal flying knee to conclude the thrilling battle. Thankfully, Sopai eventually regains his senses, but he needs to be carried out of the Octagon from all the damage he sustained after nearly 15 minutes of ridiculous action and violence.
The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Bernardo Sopai R3 4:41 via KO (Flying Knee)
Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, expecting him to bring forward pressure and aggression. He notes that Oliveira is sloppy but dangerous, while Benardo Sopaj is a patient, boring striker. He thinks Oliveira will win and the fight will not go the distance.
Cody picks Oliveira but is hesitant, noting the fight was just announced. He mentions Oliveira's solid wins and finishing ability, but also his questionable durability. He notes Sopaj is undersized and on short notice. Cody says he would have bet Oliveira at -150 but now at even money it's more appealing, though he needs to see weigh-ins.
Paul tentatively picks Oliveira, noting he has no strong opinion due to the fight being added late. He mentions Oliveira's size advantage and leg kicks as key factors. He acknowledges Sopaj is a young prospect but undersized. Paul says he needs to do more research and let the line settle before feeling confident.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
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