UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 26
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jean Matsumoto
5.37 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
5.41 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
3.0 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Farid Basharat
4.25 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.89 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
3.34 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Jean Matsumoto - Fight History
SCHED vs Bekzat Almakhan
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-160); Almakhan (+135)

Round 1
Maybe the best fight on the whole UFC Baku card despite being stuck in the early prelims, bantamweight up-and-comers Almakhan and Nascimento go to work under the watchful eye of referee Rich Mitchell. They touch gloves and go to work In matching orthodox stances. Almakhan steps forward and lands a jab. Matsumoto feints with the rear leg a few times, but doesn’t pull the trigger. Matsumoto goes upstairs with a kick that comes up short. Almakhan steps into the pocket and throws a flurry of punches that come up short. Matsumoto flicks out another high kick. Almakhan bursts forward with another glancing volley of punches. Two minutes in, Almakhan catches Matsumoto with a hard left hand that is the cleanest shot of the fight by either man so far. Matsumoto connects with a hard calf kick, then another, a few moments later. Almakhan checks the next one, and nails Matsumoto with a counter that takes him off his feet. Matsumoto springs back up but is hurt. He shoots for a takedown, which Almakhan defends, but gets a few crucial seconds to recover. Matsumoto is still hurt and recovering, but with a minute to go in the round, he steps forward, lands a pair of hooks and clinches, then drives Almakhan to the fence and works for a takedown. Almakhan defends well, but Matsumoto picks up and slams him right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan

Round 2
Matsumoto lands first with a right hook. They separate, reengage and Matsumoto connects again. Matsumoto changes levels for a double-leg takedown, and looks close to getting it, but Almakhan sprawls and keeps his feet. They disengage and go back to work at distance. Matsumoto goes to work with kicks to the lead left leg of Almakhan. Almakhan counters with his right cross. Matsumoto lands a two-piece upstairs. Almakhan sidesteps a Matsumoto advance and clocks him with a clean left. Matsumoto shakes it off, but it looks like it hurt. Matsumoto drives Almakhan to the fence, where he grabs a single-leg. Almakhan defends the takedown well and they disengage. Matsumoto touches with a body kick, then another, then a front kick to the midsection. Almakhan is largely wearing the kicks, looking to counter rather than evade. Matsumoto runs Almakhan to the fence but can’t get a takedown going. They collide in the pocket, with both men landing several punches. Matsumoto lands a spinning back elbow at the clapper, then a glancing flying knee before the horn. Close round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
Matsumoto has a cut over the left eye that has been capably addressed by the cutman between rounds, and he’s on the front foot to kick off Round 3. There are a few tentative exchanges in the pocket, and Matsumoto waves his arms to the crowd. Ninety seconds into the round, Matsumoto is the aggressor, but neither man has truly put a stamp on the round. Referee Mitchell halts the action, as Matsumoto drags his extended fingers across the eye of Almakhan. With a warning and a few seconds to recover, they go back to work. Almakhan gives ground, but lands his left hook, then lands it again. Matsumoto comes up short with a left head kick, then throws a right high kick that glances off the guard of the Kazakhstani. Matsumoto shoots for a takedown near the fence and succeeds in dragging Almakhan to his seat at the base of the cage, but Almakhan bounces back up. They return to the center of the cage, but Matsumoto quickly walks Almakhan back to the cage. Almakhan punches his way off the fence. Almakhan throws a high kick that lands solidly on the forearm of Matsumoto. They meet in the center of the Octagon at the 10-second clapper, but neither man lands anything of consequence before the horn, and they walk off with arms raised.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan (29-28 Almakhan)

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ believes Almakhan has the boxing advantage over Matsumoto's Muay Thai, with better speed, power, and wrestling. He thinks Matsumoto's boxing is mediocre and that Almakhan can outbox him and mix in takedowns. AJ is surprised Almakhan is the underdog and thinks the line is wrong.

Knockout +325, Decision +350
"I think Beexad Amakan is more than a live underdog. I think you're looking at a guy that should be the favorite."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ likes Almakhan's boxing advantage, elusiveness, and power, while Matsumoto's Muay Thai is heavy-footed with limited punching power. He believes Almakhan's takedown threat and superior hands will outwork Matsumoto over three rounds, possibly earning a decision or late finish.

Almakhan by KO prop might be +800. Over 2.5 rounds -190. AJ surprised Matsumoto is -160 favorite; thinks Almakhan should be favored.
"I like the side of Becksat Al-Makan to get the win here. I really like his boxing advantage."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ DeVito likes Bekzat Almakhan as an underdog at +125, believing his hands are sharper and his wrestling is superior to Jean Matsumoto's Muay Thai style. He thinks Almakhan should be the favorite and expects a decision win, though he acknowledges knockout power. He includes Almakhan in a doggy style parlay.

Almakhan by decision (mentioned in parlay); included in parlay with Torres and Oleksiejczuk at +703.
"I like Beexat's chances a lot here. I think that his hands are a lot sharper than Gene Matsumoto... I'm surprised he's the underdog."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ believes Almakhan has superior boxing, speed, and wrestling compared to Matsumoto, despite Matsumoto's slight edge in kicks. He is surprised Almakhan is a +140 underdog and thinks the odds could be flipped. He predicts a competitive three-round fight with Almakhan doing more over 15 minutes, likely winning by decision.

Almakhan by decision at +350; over 2.5 rounds -220; Almakhan wins over 1.5 rounds +200; Matsumoto by decision +130; Almakhan +3.5 -175.
"Beexat as a dog here is kind of madness to me."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Matsumoto, believing his aggression will neutralize Almakhan's offense. He notes that Matsumoto is tough and durable, while Almakhan is dangerous but lacks takedown defense and work rate. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds because both fighters are tough.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I like Gene to win this fight. He's going to be the pick. The over two and a half to me makes a ton of sense as well because they're both really tough."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo thinks Jean Matsumoto wins but wasn't confident enough to bet the winner. He notes Matsumoto is insanely tough and not very dangerous, while Bekzat is dangerous but also tough. He expects a decision because Matsumoto doesn't have finishing ability and won't get finished.

over 2.5 rounds (in parlay)
"I think Jean Matsumoto wins, but I wasn't going to draw a line on the winner. Matsumoto is insanely tough and not very dangerous."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, believing his forward pressure and aggression will neutralize Bekzat's speed and mobility. He thinks Jean has been unlucky in recent decisions and should have won his last two fights. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting a close decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think Jean Matsumoto's forward pressure, his aggression, I think it'll work well for him. ... I like Jean getting in his face, I like him mixing things up. He's going to be the pick. I also love over two …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto over Bekzat Almakhan. He notes that Almakhan has power but very low volume, questionable takedown defense, and poor ground game. Matsumoto is the higher-volume striker with superior wrestling, having taken down Rob Font and Fareed Baserat multiple times. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, possibly by submission late if Almakhan makes mistakes.

"I like Matsumoto here. Um and I like him to win. And I'll say by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Cody picks Matsumoto, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Matsumoto's durability and experience against better competition, and Almakhan's low volume. He expects Matsumoto to win a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I prefer the over two and a half here. I'm going to trust uh that chin of Matsimo like the over two and a half is like minus 185."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Daniel Levi picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his durability, forward pressure, and weaponized cardio. He notes that Almakhan is dangerous early but fades if he doesn't finish, as seen against Alexandre Tapora. Matsumoto's ability to survive Almakhan's power and then push a pace should break him late. Levi also highlights Matsumoto's competitive performance against Fared Basharat as a sign of his caliber.

"I think that as long as Matsumoto doesn't get caught here, I think he's going to push a serious pace on Alma and I think he's going to break him late."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Jacob picks Matsumoto, citing his work rate and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks Almakhan's only path is a KO, but Matsumoto is too tough to finish. He also likes Matsumoto to get takedowns and suggests a prop on that.

Jean Matsumoto to get 1+ takedowns
"The work rate of Gene Matsumoto is probably going to be too much. He does like to mix in some takedowns here. So, the props and things that I would like in this fight is Gene Matsumoto to get takedowns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Lucrative James picks Jean Matsumoto because he believes Matsumoto has superior cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes that Almakhan is a good boxer but limited elsewhere, and tends to shut down when things go south. He expects Almakhan to start well, but Matsumoto's pace, leg kicks, and grappling will take over in rounds two and three, leading to a decision win.

"Gatsimo wins this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Matsumoto has shown he can work back to his feet quickly after takedowns and has a striking advantage. He will wear Almakhan down with leg kicks and combinations, eventually pulling away. Almakhan relies on grappling but Matsumoto's defensive wrestling and ability to get up will neutralize that.

"I believe Matsumoto will get taken down, but I believe he'll be able to get back to his feet in relatively quick fashion and then from there, I think he'll be able to show off his striking advantage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host picks Jean Matsumoto to thwart the grappling approach of Bekzat Almakhan and out-strike him on the feet. He believes Matsumoto will land better damage and possibly get to some grappling of his own, ultimately winning on the scorecards.

Matsumoto wins by decision
"I like me some Matsumoto here to thwart the grappling approach of Almakayev Almakhan, sorry, and eventually out-strike him landing better damage on the feet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Paul picks Matsumoto, citing his durability, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Almakhan's power but low volume, and believes Matsumoto will outwork him. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and a split decision prop.

Over 2.5 rounds at -185; split decision prop
"I got the over. I got Masumoto. I got Masamoto by decision, but uh it's a Alma fight, man."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The Guru picks Matsumoto via decision, citing his durability, pressure, clinch work, and ability to survive early danger from Almakhan's power. He expects Almakhan to fade after a round and a half, allowing Matsumoto to take over with cumulative damage and conditioning. He notes Matsumoto's experience against a similar fighter in Farid Basharat.

"I'm going to go with Jean Matsumoto via decision."
LOSS vs Farid Basharat
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 76 of 220 34% 111 of 263 7 of 11 63% 0 0 4:40
Farid Basharat 0 80 of 152 52% 95 of 172 2 of 7 28% 0 1 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 19 of 52 36% 29 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Farid Basharat 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 20 of 66 30% 30 of 77 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:59
Farid Basharat 0 31 of 52 59% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
3 Jean Matsumoto 0 37 of 102 36% 52 of 118 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:22
Farid Basharat 0 29 of 64 45% 38 of 75 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 76 of 220 34% 40 of 162 20 of 29 16 of 29 62 of 197 14 of 23 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 80 of 152 52% 63 of 132 14 of 16 3 of 4 66 of 136 14 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 19 of 52 36% 11 of 40 0 of 1 8 of 11 16 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 20 of 36 55% 13 of 28 5 of 5 2 of 3 15 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 20 of 66 30% 8 of 44 8 of 11 4 of 11 14 of 56 6 of 10 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 31 of 52 59% 25 of 46 5 of 5 1 of 1 26 of 46 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Jean Matsumoto 37 of 102 36% 21 of 78 12 of 17 4 of 7 32 of 93 5 of 9 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 29 of 64 45% 25 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-280); Matsumoto (+230)

Round 1
It takes a lot to get ranked in the jam-packed bantamweight division, and the winner between Matsumoto (17-1, 3-1 UFC) and Basharat (14-0, 5-0 UFC) may still be another victory away from getting a number next to their name come Monday. They both still have time, clocking in at 26 and 28 years of age, respectively. Former professional fighter and current ref Herb Dean will have the age disadvantage in this affair, but he can still keep up just fine. The fighters touch gloves.
The commentary booth notes that when both Basharat brothers fight on the same card together, they always win. We will see if that trend continues. Matsumoto does not want that to happen, and he gets right in front of Basharat and slugs it out with him. When Basharat responds, Matsumoto fires off a jump knee that skims his intended target. Matsumoto slowly advances, and he takes a spinning back fist on the side of the dome. Matsumoto gathers himself and chucks a low kick, and he absorbs a step-in elbow that slashes open his cheek. Basharat continues pressuring his opponent to the wall, grabbing the fence to hold him there with both hands, and Dean finally sees it and tells him to stop. Matsumoto turns him about when Basharat is not illegally grabbing the cage wall, and they split apart. Matsumoto works his way forward, taking a jab and a low kick that forces a stance switch. He swarms Basharat with his fists, and Basharat slides to the side and bounces off the wall. They toss out left hooks, and Basharat connects with another elbow. He follows the strike with a bullying takedown attempt, pushing Matsumoto back but hitting the wire and springing around.
Basharat spins with a back elbow that partially connects, and he flashes out a jab that knocks Matsumoto’s head back each time. Matsumoto turns the tables and shoots in for a double, and he transitions to a single as Basharat hops around. Matsumoto elevates and dumps him, and Basharat gets right to his knees no worse for wear. Matsumoto grinds and works short punches on the inside until Basharat explodes back upright again in the clinch. Basharat drops down for a single, and an up-elbow from Matsumoto makes Basharat rethink his choice to hang in tight. Matsumoto walks Basharat down, swinging hard but largely whiffing, while Basharat cleanly counters him. Matsumoto whiffs on a spinning back kick and a takedown effort, and Basharat clips him with a right on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Matsumoto charges out of his corner but into the waiting arms of Basharat, who grabs him and turns him around in the clinch. The two jockey for position until Matsumoto splits off, and Basharat thanks him for this with a spin kick that grazes the side. Basharat clips Matsumoto with a short burst of punches, backing up the Brazilian but not taking full advantage of the damage. Matsumoto comes back after him, and Basharat intercepts him, drives a knee into his chest and chucks him carefree to the floor. Matsumoto scampers back up and is met with knees from Basharat, who further bloodies Matsumoto up with his strikes. Matsumoto knees him back, but the impact is substantially different. Basharat voluntarily drops to a knee so that he is a grounded fighter and will not be kneed in the face, so Matsumoto lifts him off the floor and slams him back down. Basharat stands, and Matsumoto takes his back while upright. Basharat grabs the fence again to nearly stop a takedown, but Dean’s admonishment forces him to release it.
Basharat gets pulled to the floor after clinging to the cage, and Matsumoto mat returns him and briefly takes control of his back. Basharat quickly, calmly reverses the position to wind up on top, where he slices through the guard but cannot keep Matsumoto down. Basharat dings him with a knee on the way out, and he throws out another as Matsumoto comes at him. Matsumoto lines up a one-two down the pipe, and he takes a punch while shooting. Basharat considers jumping guard for a guillotine, but he lets it go so he can return to a knee. Matsumoto works Basharat on the side of the head, taking his back again and even briefly hopping on it. He lets go and knees Basharat in the face and clubs him with a left, and is met with quick punches coming back at him. Matsumoto wildly flails to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
Matsumoto swarms his man as soon as the round kicks off, backing Basharat to the fence with big swings and catching him with some. Matsumoto’s sheer pressure result in a brief clinch, and Basharat separates and shoots for a double. Matsumoto stonewalls him and knees him in the stomach before giving him and elbow to think about, and his head kick is barely blocked in the nick of time. Matsumoto lands at the end of a left, and he knocks Basharat’s head around with a subsequent stream of punches. Basharat times a perfect takedown to sweep Matsumoto off his feet and deposit him gingerly to the floor. Matsumoto scoots his way to the fence and wall-walks to stand after a few seconds, and Basharat grabs the cage again as the rules mean nothing when all you have is Herb Dean yelling at you. Matsumoto ducks and dips when Basharat engages, as both men trade hands in flurries. Matsumoto goes for a double, and Basharat takes a knee to defend it.
The Brit stands once more, putting his back to the wall, and he spins out quickly to escape the tie-up. Basharat dings the increasingly bloody Matsumoto with a one-two, and he beats Matsumoto to the punch with faster strikes. Matsumoto is starting to swing with more labored, arcing strikes, but he manages to tag Basharat with one and stun him. Basharat settles down to use straight punches to keep Matsumoto at bay, and he shoots for a double and puts Matsumoto down. Matsumoto rolls through to partially reverse the position, and both men stand back up and start duking it out. Matsumoto keeps his foot on the gas, backing up Basharat with heavy punches as Basharat tries to parry and keep his head on a swivel. Matsumoto chains a takedown into his attack, dragging Basharat to the mat and considering a back take. Basharat stands up before that can happen, which leads Matsumoto to throwing caution to the wind. Basharat absorbs serious punishment and goes for a desperate takedown, dragging the Brazilian to the floor in the waning seconds of the fight. Basharat drops down an elbow and illegally knees Matsumoto in the head with Matsumoto’s knee down on the floor. Matsumoto stands back up and throws leather, ignoring the many fouls inflicted upon him this match, and the close tilt comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Jean Matsumoto via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat, noting he is the better of the Basharat brothers and a well-rounded wrestler with solid striking. He thinks Farid will work on the outside, touch and go, and get takedowns. He warns that Vegas doesn't care about wrestling, so if Farid doesn't do anything with takedowns, it may not matter. He acknowledges Jean Matsumoto's potential but thinks his lack of defense is a problem.

"I think Fared wins this fight. I think Fared's just going to work on the outside, touch and go a little bit, get the takedowns, and I think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady picks Farid Basharat, calling him the better prospect. He notes that Matsumoto has poor takedown defense (53%) and has been taken down multiple times in past fights. Basharat is a good wrestler and grappler, and Brady expects him to take the fight to the ground and win a decision.

by decision
"I'm going Bosch here. I'm going to take Bosch to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody also picks Basharat, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Matsumoto's tendency to be taken down. He notes both fighters are decision-oriented, making the over a strong play. Cody expects Basharat to control the fight with takedowns and win a clear decision.

over 2.5 rounds, Farid Basharat by decision
"I'll be taking Basher up by decision at plus money before that is gone."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, praising Basharat's ability to solve problems and his technical wrestling. He notes that Matsumoto is a tough, indefatigable bully, but Basharat has the tools to handle him. He thinks Basharat's wrestling and fight IQ will be the difference, though Matsumoto's durability could make it a tough fight.

Same odds discussion.
"I have to pick Bashirat."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Lucrative James picks Farid Basharat to win by decision. He expects Basharat to employ a grappling-heavy game plan, using his elite cardio and takedown volume to control the fight. James notes that Matsumoto has been taken down multiple times in past fights and that Basharat's wrestling will be the key to victory.

"I think Fared extends his winning streak to 15. I think he goes 15 and0 with a decision win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Basharat, believing his overall game and grappling will be the difference. He notes Basharat's reach and height advantage, and his ability to mix in takedowns after striking. He expects Basharat to snipe Matsumoto from distance, then use control time and top damage to win on the scorecards. He acknowledges Matsumoto's striking could make it competitive but thinks Basharat's grappling edge is decisive.

"Official prediction here will be Basharat, just a better overall game. His grappling will be the difference maker, and I think that leads to Basharat winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Farid Basharat, citing his high ring IQ and ability to stick to game plans. He notes Matsumoto's poor takedown defense and defensive striking. Paul expects Basharat to mix takedowns with striking and win a decision, recommending a prop on Basharat by decision.

Farid Basharat by decision
"Bosat sticks to the game plan like doesn't deter from it which is why he's 14-0."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto. He notes Matsumoto's recent performances have been lackluster, while Basharat has size and physicality. He thinks Basharat's mix of striking and grappling will be too much, and he can bully Matsumoto against the cage and in scrambles.

"I'm going to go Farid Basharat. I like his mixing up of the striking and the grappling."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because of his impressive game planning and technical wrestling. He notes that Basharat has shown he can adapt to any opponent, using pressure boxing against Gutierrez, counter wrestling against Hugo, and wrestling against Lapelis. He thinks Basharat's technical wrestling will be too much for Matsumoto, who relies on scrambling and physicality.

Basharat opened at -400, currently -265; Matsumoto opened at +330, currently +225.
"I got to pick him."
WIN vs Miles Johns
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 83 of 184 45% 89 of 191 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:12
Jean Matsumoto 0 95 of 233 40% 109 of 249 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Jean Matsumoto 0 16 of 49 32% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:22
2 Miles Johns 0 34 of 67 50% 35 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 35 of 84 41% 39 of 89 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
3 Miles Johns 0 27 of 75 36% 31 of 80 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:04
Jean Matsumoto 0 44 of 100 44% 50 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 83 of 184 45% 70 of 170 12 of 13 1 of 1 78 of 175 5 of 8 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 95 of 233 40% 49 of 160 27 of 38 19 of 35 87 of 224 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 16 of 49 32% 8 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 11 15 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 34 of 67 50% 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 35 of 84 41% 15 of 55 14 of 19 6 of 10 33 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 27 of 75 36% 22 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 44 of 100 44% 26 of 76 8 of 10 10 of 14 39 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-310); Johns (+250)

Round 1
A pair of bantamweights trying to bounce back from tough decision losses will come to blows next, with one of the two falling to the first losing streak of their career barring something bizarre. Johns (15-3, 1 NC; 6-3, 1 NC UFC) has not been the poster boy for high activity since coming to the organization in 2019, as this will be his first trip to the cage this year. His foe Matsumoto (16-1, 2-1 UFC) came up short to Rob Font in a “separate the wheat from the chaff” pairing, although some scoring it gave it to the 25-year-old Brazilian. Referee Herb Dean takes charge of the cage, paying close attention as the fighters decide against touching gloves.
They stay a safe distance from one another, with Matsumoto watching out for Johns’ anticipated blitzes. Johns rushes out behind a few punches, but they are out of range. When Matsumoto commits to a low kick, Johns wings a right hand over the top. He follows it with a few more up the middle, and keeps Matsumoto on his back foot with his surges. Johns dips and wings an overhand right, and his guard is raised well in time to defend against the counter. “Chapo” beats the once-beaten athlete to the punch literally and figuratively, clubbing him with his fists before crashing the pocket to shoot for a double. Lifting Matsumoto up in the air, Johns gingerly deposits his man down much kinder than a previous bantamweight tonight. Matsumoto hangs on with his right arm draped around Johns’ neck for a guillotine choke, and Johns is suddenly trapped as his head turns red and veins bulge. Johns does not appear overly concerned, and he slides his neck out before long.
Matsumoto is able to fight back to his feet, and he immediately faces cracking right and left hands from the Marathon MMA fighter. Matsumoto evades and tries to counter, but Johns is faster and putting his punches together. Matsumoto lets loose a body kick that does land, and Johns strikes him back immediately. Matsumoto zings a left hand that grazes the top of his foe’s head, and Johns appears to have to gather himself before winging responses. Matsumoto leaps forward with a flying knee, and Johns grabs him midair and slings him to the mat like a back of groceries. Matsumoto jumps back up to his feet with the fence behind him, and he frames off with an elbow. They both let their hands go, hooking their arms at the crook of the elbow. Matsumoto turns the tables on the American by shooting for a single, and Johns pushes—and not grabs—the fence to rebound. Matsumoto lets him have it with one last elbow before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Matsumoto is the immediate aggressor to start the round, letting fly a head kick before Johns can shift into gear. Matsumoto chops the front leg of Johns and uses it to set punches up upstairs. Johns throws back, while avoiding the looping counters of his foe. Matsumoto works the body with both legs, trying to stay away from the counters that Johns commits to regularly. Nearly each time Matsumoto goes to a kick, Johns is ready with a right or left hook. This has decent effect, but he falls in love with his big power that he overswings with. Matsumoto strings together short but effective combinations, usually ending with a body shot.
Johns clubs his man behind the ear, sending Matsumoto staggering back, but Matsumoto is able to gain a full head of steam as he jumps at Johns with a flying knee. Once more, Johns times the jump to tackle Matsumoto to the floor. Matsumoto defends with a guillotine choke, using it to sit up and push Johns to the fence. Johns stands, and Matsumoto tags him with a few strikes before the reset. Matsumoto snaps out a left hand that gets Johns’ attention, and Johns bites down on his gumshield and hurls three hooks back at him. Johns tags his opponent with right hands, and a left hook scores just before Matsumoto goes for a body kick. Johns hurls his looping punches, snapping the head back when he lands, while Matsumoto is more than willing to stand in the pocket. A jump knee from Matsumoto drills Johns in the chest, and Johns grips hold of him and turns him to the wall. Matsumoto breaks free and tosses out a kick, and Johns responds with looping punches. Johns fakes a takedown shot that makes Matsumoto hit the deck, and he evades the follow-up strikes when the younger fighter gets up and chases after him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
The fight could be up for grabs in this last round, and Matsumoto knows this well by going back to attacking Johns’ lead leg. A low kick from Matsumoto trips Johns up, and Johns explodes back to his feet and drills Matsumoto in the face with a right hand. Johns connects with a calf kick that forces a stance switch, and Matsumoto backs off and rolls with a huge overhand right. Matsumoto’s jab pierces through the guard, and Johns’ hands are up to defend the worst of the additional blows. Johns leans on his own jab to rifle off a few one-twos, using straight strikes instead of the booming hooks from downtown. Meanwhile, Matsumoto does not waver from his approach of breaking down his opponent with body work to set up head shots. Johns sees this approach coming and tags him with two hooks, and he catches a body kick and sets it down before something can come of it. Johns puts fists on Matsumoto, and Matsumoto drives him back with a crisp uppercut.
Matsumoto intercepts his foe with a slapping low kick, and “Chapo” is struggling to put all of his weight on it. Matsumoto dances back and slips in a few more low kicks and a body kick, and now Johns briefly changes stances after absorbing the damage. Matsumoto circles all the way around, a 360-degree revolution, to settle again and kick at Johns’ legs. Johns fires off huge punches that knock Matsumoto back, including a power right hand as Matsumoto kicks at him. Johns swings for the bleachers, and Matsumoto is tough as nails but is forced to deal with a takedown shot after taking blows to the head. Matsumoto briefly clings to a guillotine, and Johns steps over to the side to get out of it. Matsumoto works his way back up with Johns behind him, and Johns trips him back out. This cycle nearly continues when Johns jams knees to the back of the younger fighter’s thigh, and all Matsumoto can offer is a handful of no-look back elbows. Matsumoto puts his back to the fence as he stands, his cheek leaking from absorbed strikes, and he pushes off with 15 seconds to spare. Johns opens up with two punches that miss, and Matsumoto pursues his own double as time expires. It could go either way here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (29-28 Johns)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Miles Johns via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns as a dog, noting he is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and explosive speed. He thinks Matsumoto gets hit a lot and cuts easily, and in Las Vegas damage matters. Angelo likes the plus money on Johns and may bet the spread (+3.5) instead of the moneyline.

Considering betting Miles Johns +3.5 spread.
"I like the dog here. I'm going to pick Miles John's at two to one almost three to one for Gene Matsimoto."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, criticizing Miles Johns for not using his wrestling and having low volume. He believes Matsumoto's higher volume and ability to mix in takedowns will be key. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, though he notes the fight is not exciting.

"I like Matsumoto here. I'll take Matsumoto to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor picks Matsumoto, describing him as a brute who sits down on his punches and forces opponents to prove they can handle his power. He notes that Johns struggles when opponents stay in his face and keep up the pace, as seen against Felipe Lima. Connor believes Matsumoto's pressure, boxing, and ability to cut off the cage will overwhelm Johns, though he acknowledges Johns hits hard and could land a big shot.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think that Matsumoto was just a little bit more on that Felipe Lima side of things."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host is a big fan of Matsumoto and thinks he can replicate what Philippe Lima did to Miles Johns. He expects Matsumoto to use a Muay Thai heavy approach, mix in takedowns, and chip away at Johns' lead leg, eventually winning on the scorecards.

"I think he can replicate what Philippe Lima was able to do to Miles John's last time around. utilize his Muay Thai heavy approach, maybe mix in some takedowns, but I think for the most part, Matsumoto will chip away …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The MMA Guru picks Jean Matsumoto, noting he arguably beat Rob Font and has multiple paths to victory. He criticizes Miles Johns as flat-footed and coiled up, which will allow Matsumoto to mix in grappling and striking. He predicts a decision win for Matsumoto, possibly 30-27.

"I've got to go with Gene Matsamuto. He arguably beat Rob Font."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto, highlighting his fast hands, good mobility, and technical boxing. He notes that Johns is a wrestle-boxer who needs to get takedowns to succeed, but Matsumoto's pressure and power will make that difficult. Zane compares Matsumoto to a bantamweight Danny Yay or Josh Emmett, a reliable gatekeeper who is always dangerous.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think it'll be dangerous. Johns hits like a tank, but Matsumoto is the kind of fighter the UFC desperately needs right now."
LOSS vs Rob Font
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 95 of 171 55% 113 of 191 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Jean Matsumoto 0 77 of 181 42% 113 of 225 7 of 10 70% 0 0 6:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 21 of 34 61% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
2 Rob Font 0 34 of 56 60% 36 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jean Matsumoto 0 29 of 61 47% 35 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:05
3 Rob Font 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Jean Matsumoto 0 41 of 101 40% 46 of 107 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 95 of 171 55% 82 of 157 13 of 14 0 of 0 85 of 157 10 of 14 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 77 of 181 42% 43 of 135 9 of 13 25 of 33 69 of 169 8 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 7 of 19 36% 1 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 4 3 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rob Font 34 of 56 60% 28 of 50 6 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 29 of 61 47% 16 of 43 3 of 4 10 of 14 29 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rob Font 40 of 81 49% 34 of 74 6 of 7 0 of 0 32 of 69 8 of 12 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 41 of 101 40% 26 of 80 3 of 6 12 of 15 37 of 93 4 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto

Round 1
His back no longer totally against the wall, Font (21-8, 11-7 UFC) ended a losing streak last year by outworking Kyler Phillips. It is up to the Boston native to play spoiler once more, as he battles undefeated youngster Matsumoto (16-0, 2-0 UFC) at 140 pounds. With Font initially expecting to fight Dominick Cruz, Matsumoto stepping in late forced the weight shift. The assignment goes to referee Keith Peterson, who steps back to let the fighters get to nonsense-free business. They touch gloves, and Font walks straight forward hurling serious leather with a questionable tactic. Matsumoto is caught off-guard, and he fights for a takedown to slow things down and get his bearings. Font turns him against the fencing, and he staves off a single a few times as his seat hits the canvas for less than a second. Font gets up and breaks free, and he promptly puts a one-two on the chin. Matsumoto stumbles and rebounds off the fencing, and he narrowly escapes a huge uppercut soaring his way. Font fearlessly marches his foe down, whose one-twos are clean as can be. Font’s aggression gets the better of him, as the Brazilian tags him with a right hand to surprise him. Matsumoto rushes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and Font allows this so he can fall to his back and implement an offensive guard. Font goes for a triangle choke and transitions to an omoplata shoulder lock, and when both of those do not materialize, he hunts for a kimura to sweep. Matsumoto breaks out of it and shifts from one side to the other, not settling down or establishing himself in a guard. Matsumoto keeps moving, and he moves to half guard so he can keep Font pinned to the mat without any chance of throwing up a submission. Font still explodes to his feet, and Matsumoto sees this coming and wraps up a guillotine choke. Font, on his side, keeps his neck safe from danger, and he pops his head out. Matsumoto moves to a partial side control for a moment to land strikes, only for Font to get back to his feet. Matsumoto slams him back down with emphasis, dropping down a pair of punches to punctuate the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 2
Font charges out of his corner, and Matsumoto learned his lesson about accepting the touch of gloves this time. Matsumoto slows him down with his own jab, but Font is still right in his face. Matsumoto slaps a kick off the side and one to the lead leg, and Font flashes his own jab. Matsumoto turns his hips into a hard low kick, and Font snaps his head back a few times with speedy fists. Matsumoto fires right back to open up a takedown, and he finds himself in a guillotine choke. The Brazilian easily climbs out of it, and Font works his way to one knee and then upright. Matsumoto awkwardly hangs on the back ankle, using the leverage to wrench the veteran back to the mat. Font thinks about grabbing the fence to stand, and ultimately works his way up to break free. Font walks his man down and completely no-sells a few low kicks so he can fire off a massive uppercut that buzzes past the youngster. Font goes to the body and head in a combination, while Matsumoto is active with his feet. Font digs a few more to the body, and he defends a head kick. Matsumoto mixes up his kicks high and low, not giving Font a pattern to follow. Font ignores these all so he can punch the youngster square in the face, with sharp one-twos that are fast and effective while keeping him out of counter danger. Matsumoto runs at him and trips him up by the ankle to set him down, and Font egregiously grabs the cage to keep himself upright. Peterson slaps his hand out of the fencing, and Matsumoto again wraps up Font’s back ankle to get a mat return. Instead of tripping Font up like that, he elects to lift Font up the air and drive him down into the mat. Font wraps up a kimura to sweep, and it allows him to get back to his feet. Font is right back to walking his man down, with Matsumoto on his bike trying to not get hit with the worst thrown at him. Font attacks the body and gets stung up top, but he is willing to fire and take damage. Matsumoto boots his man upside the head, and he absorbs a stern right hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Font
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
Scores could be all over the map in this one, and the final frame starts as aggressively as the first two. Font is a man on a mission, leading into combinations and not seeming to flinch any time the Brazilian slugs him back. Matsumoto keeps him honest with counters, and his leg kicks are beginning to add up. Font clubs his man in the side of the head and just misses with a head kick, and he keeps chasing forward. Matsumoto rips a mean left to the liver, and it is as if nothing happened as Font is in his grill slinging furious leather. The strikes from Font rip open a cut on his foe’s forehead, and he targets it with a knee when Matsumoto clinches him up. Matsumoto slips with a low kick and throws back a right hand up top, only to be met with a jab and a right. The blood quickly flows down the youngster’s face, transforming his visage into something out of a horror movie. Matsumoto tries to take the fight down with Font on him so doggedly, and Font stonewalls him and blasts him with an uppercut. Matsumoto chews up Font’s lead leg with kicks, and he doubles or triples up on them to open up takedowns. Font breaks out of a clinch to wrap his right hand around the guard of his foe, and he protects himself with a head kick and knees his man in the stomach. Font attacks with an elbow, a knee and several clinch strikes to put the 25-year-old through the wood chipper. Matsumoto fires back as well, but Font’s is putting volume and heavy pressure on him. Matsumoto sells out for a takedown, and Font pushes it aside and gets some space. They stand in the pocket throwing hands, and Font swings hard. Matsumoto goes wild with a flurry of punches, kicks, spinning strikes and anything else he can muster. One flying knee from Matsumoto is met with a huge right hand, and the two go ballistic with an onslaught of offense with shades of Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas minus the pointing to the floor. Both men hit, get hit, hurt the other and get hurt as the torrid exchange only ends when the final horn blares. Judges will have their hands full with this one, but what a fight these two turned in.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Matsumoto)

The Official Result
Rob Font def. Jean Matsumoto via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, aggression, power, and multiple ways to win. He notes Rob Font is 37 and aging, and while Font's boxing is clean, he can't defend takedowns. He draws a parallel to Calvin Kattar being out-struck by a younger fighter. He is surprised the line moved toward Font.

"Jean Matsumoto is going to be too much, too aggressive, too good of a chin, too much power, too many ways to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, noting that Rob Font's takedown defense and ground game have looked awful recently, citing the Cory Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips fights. He believes Matsumoto, though not the best wrestler, is a good grappler who can take Font down and keep him there. He expects Matsumoto to win by decision, as Font has good submission defense but is content to stay on his back and lose minutes.

by decision
"I got to go Matsumoto here on the feet you know Rob fond is is is absolutely game on the feet this should be a very fun and competitive to fight I'd like the durability a little bit more at …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Connor picks Font, agreeing that Matsumoto is uncreative and predictable, while Font is a skilled boxer with good durability. He notes that Matsumoto fights in bursts and leaves gaps, which Font can exploit. Connor also points out that Font has a reach advantage and is a good puncher himself, as seen in the Yadong fight.

"Font should win this as long as he crosses his eyes and dots his teas"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host notes Matsumoto is a short-notice replacement but expects his damaging style and effective striking in the pocket to be too much for Font. He thinks Matsumoto's damage-based approach will win on the scorecards as long as Font doesn't get too far ahead in volume.

"look for matsumoto's damaging style Landing more effective strikes inside the pocket and clearly showcasing that he's being more damaging that should be enough for him to go out there and win this final on the scor cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

The Guru strongly picks Font as an underdog, calling it a no-brainer. He criticizes Matsumoto's undefeated record, noting close fights with Brad Katona and Dan Arreta where he was outgrappled. He highlights Font's experience against top competition, durability (never finished by strikes), and striking menace. He believes Matsumoto lacks KO power and won't submit or outgrapple Font.

great value on Rob font as an underdog
"I think this is a no-brainer Underdog and people are just looking at 16 and0 and thinking he's a monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rob Font

Zane picks Font because Matsumoto is a limited fighter who fights in bursts and is predictable, while Font has a clear winning formula of jabbing and boxing. He notes that Font is durable, mentally tough, and has a reach advantage. Zane believes Matsumoto would need to hurt Font badly every round to win, which is unlikely given Font's durability.

"Rob font should be able to do to matsamoto what kevin holland did to walking buckly"
WIN vs Brad Katona
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 89 of 141 63% 117 of 171 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:35
Brad Katona 0 89 of 201 44% 109 of 223 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 30 of 44 68% 39 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Brad Katona 0 20 of 53 37% 24 of 57 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 37 of 61 60% 46 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:26
Brad Katona 0 45 of 100 45% 50 of 105 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
3 Jean Matsumoto 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 48 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:29
Brad Katona 0 24 of 48 50% 35 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 89 of 141 63% 68 of 118 12 of 13 9 of 10 73 of 124 15 of 15 1 of 2
Brad Katona 89 of 201 44% 62 of 164 6 of 10 21 of 27 85 of 196 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 30 of 44 68% 21 of 35 4 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 33 10 of 10 1 of 1
Brad Katona 20 of 53 37% 14 of 42 1 of 3 5 of 8 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 37 of 61 60% 28 of 52 5 of 5 4 of 4 34 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Brad Katona 45 of 100 45% 33 of 87 2 of 2 10 of 11 43 of 98 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jean Matsumoto 22 of 36 61% 19 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 1 20 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brad Katona 24 of 48 50% 15 of 35 3 of 5 6 of 8 23 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-265), Katona (+215)

Round 1
Moving things along on the prelims, Katona (14-3, 4-3 UFC) has a new lease on life in his second stint with the organization. It will be up to him to try to defuse surging Brazilian Matsumoto (15-0, 1-0 UFC), who comes in with a full head of steam having throttled Dan Argueta a few months ago in his successful promotional debut. What could be a high-paced affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who checks the bantamweights in as they opt not to share a glove touch. Katona wants to start out guns blazing, and he strings off several quick three-strike combinations to get going. Katona lunges in, lands two punches and a kick before darting away, and he gets out of the way of any notable counters. Matsumoto looks for a short left hook, but Katona slides to the side and dings him with an overhand right. Katona connects with two heavy punches and gets cracked with a right hand, and Matsumoto finds another right hand and staggers veteran of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Matsumoto’s right hand continues to connect when Katona throws low kicks, and he chases after the Canadian and clips him with a left hand. Katona ties him up and knees him once, and Matsumoto gets shoved to the wall. Katona grabs the fence to remain in place, receiving a warning, and he tries to change levels but is stonewalled. Katona strikes on the break, and Matsumoto walks him down fearlessly. Matsumoto flashes out two punches and a thumping leg kick, and he walks directly into a vicious standing elbow. Katona nails him with an overhand right, further doing some damage, and Matsumoto bites down on his mouthpiece and starts trading. They sit down on massive hooks, and Katona checks a kick that follows. Matsumoto slows things down on his own decision to clinch Katona, leaning all the way down to snatch the Canadian’s ankle. Katona defends with elbows to the side of the noggin, and he gets dragged to his knees. Matsumoto eats a few more elbows before standing, and he bangs the back of his head on Katona’s chin. Katona frowns, and the two fighters break apart with Matsumoto giving chase. Matsumoto strikes with a kick first and then a few punches, and he considers a takedown but is easily stuffed. Matsumoto tries to scoop Katona up, and the SBG Ireland fighter is well-schooled and stops the effort in its tracks. Katona stands Matsumoto up with a hacking elbow, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 2
The fighters pick up where they left off, blasting one another with power strikes. Neither man is willing to take a backward step while they sling it out, and Matsumoto appears to land the cleaner of the two even as he has a slight cut on the right eyebrow developing. Matsumoto takes one punch to throw two back, and Katona gets his bell rung even when he fires heavy punches. Katona’s chin holds up well from the power strikes of the Brazilian, and he gets backed to the fence where he knees up the middle before getting pushed to the wire. Blood leaks from the cut on Matsumoto’s eye, and Katona targets it with two more elbows before breaking off. They meet in the middle of the cage and throw bombs, with the kind of sheer power and intensity not often seen at 135 pounds. Katona checks a few kicks when they trade leather, and Matsumoto lands as often as he gets hit. They throw caution to the wind slinging wild shots, and Matsumoto blocks a high kick to knock Katona back. Katona recovers and punches his way into a takedown effort, and the Brazilian turns him about and shoves him to the fence. As they continue battering one another, Katona’s eyebrow gets ripped open from oncoming fire. Matsumoto further bloodies his opponent up as both men are showing damage above their right eye, and it has not slowed the momentum or ferocity one iota. Matsumoto dives after an opportunistic takedown, and Katona manages to stuff it and strike back with a few knees. Katona groans as one might have landed on the groin, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke. The wild round ends before Katona can do anything with it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
It takes a matter of seconds for the bantamweights to stand and bang. Matsumoto absorbs a few kicks to split the guard with a right hand that sends Katona staggering back. Katona gathers a full head of steam, absorbs a few punches and kicks the side. Matsumoto sits down on a pounding body kick, and he walks Katona down and is met with a diving double. Matsumoto backs himself up against the wall to stay upright, and Katona transitions to a single that also comes up short. Matsumoto grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and his hand is slapped away but he otherwise gets away with it. Katona is wise to a guillotine choke setup and shifts to a body lock before the unbeaten fighter pushes him away. Katona races at him for a double, and Matsumoto advertises the price of admission by blasting a bloody Katona in the face with a number of punches. Katona slips away from a high kick and throws one to the body, and Matsumoto belts the legs with kicks and follows those kicks with straight, piston-like punches. Katona snaps the head back successfully during an exchange, but he eats shots right back as Matsumoto does not back down. Katona shoots, and Matsumoto bounces him off and lands cleanly until Katona pursues another level change. Matsumoto wrestles Katona to a knee as they trade short but clean strikes on the inside, and Matsumoto lifts up a knee and sells out for a single. Katona hits his seat for no more than a second before exploding up, and he succeeds in turning the corner to drag Matsumoto down. Matsumoto eats a few strikes before bursting up to his feet to attempt a final takedown, and the final bell rings to wrap up what is an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate. The scores could range anywhere from 3-0 Matsumoto to 2-1 Katona, so the judges will have their hands full.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (30-27 Matsumoto)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Matsumoto)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Matsumoto)

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Brad Katona via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto but is hesitant, acknowledging that Brad Katona is a tough, durable fighter who could spoil the plans. He notes Matsumoto's well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and Muay Thai, but also points out that he was taken down nine times by Dan Argueta and nearly lost. He thinks Matsumoto's volume and willingness to let his hands go will be key, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He is considering a plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or the over 1.5 rounds.

plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or over 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Jean here because I do think if he lets his hands go he's going to look great"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto by decision. He acknowledges Katona's high fight IQ and ability to win minutes, but believes Matsumoto will be the more active striker and do more damage. He compares it to Katona's loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was out-struck. He expects a competitive fight but Matsumoto's damage will win the decision.

"it's a pretty easy pick here it's Matsumoto it's mimoto by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor also picks Matsumoto, citing Katona's tendency to have a bad start and not dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a strong athlete who will come forward, but acknowledges that Katona is tough and often comes on strong late. Connor sees it as a mirror match and a split decision possibility, but leans Matsumoto due to his physical advantages.

"I think so too, even though like I really can see this fight devolving into one where Matsumoto's not looking very good."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Katona is a high-IQ fighter, but Matsumoto has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona en route to a decision victory. The line is a bit wide, so there could be some Katona value on his underdog line, but Matsumoto is more dangerous in the striking realm.

"I think that Gene matoto has the good enough uh defensive grappling to keep this fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona on route to a decision Victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The Guru is impressed by Matsumoto's debut win over Dan Argueta, noting he looked amazing and showed talent. He criticizes Brad Katona's wins as being over low-level opponents and points out Katona's short reach. He believes Matsumoto, an undefeated 25-year-old prospect with a full training camp, will get the win.

"I am going to go Matt zuto here over Brad Katona I just don't see any talent in Brad katona's game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto mainly because he expects Katona to have a slow start, as Katona often lets physically imposing fighters dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a powerful athlete who will blitz with power, but acknowledges that Katona has a good jab and could jab Matsumoto up. Zane sees it as a real 50-50 toss-up and doesn't feel great about the pick.

Matsumoto opened at -261, now -244; Katona opened at +222, now +210. Zane thinks the odds should be much closer.
"I kind of think I'm going to pick Matsumoto to win."
WIN vs Dan Argueta
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 14 of 39 35% 39 of 69 9 of 19 47% 0 0 6:01
Dan Argueta 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 47 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 6 of 16 37% 26 of 41 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:45
Dan Argueta 0 6 of 12 50% 8 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 8 of 23 34% 13 of 28 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:16
Dan Argueta 0 13 of 23 56% 21 of 32 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 14 of 39 35% 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1 10 of 31 0 of 3 4 of 5
Dan Argueta 19 of 35 54% 10 of 24 1 of 3 8 of 8 13 of 26 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 2 4 of 4
Dan Argueta 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 8 of 23 34% 7 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 1
Dan Argueta 13 of 23 56% 9 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 20 1 of 2 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-185), Argueta (+154)

Round 1
Bantamweights take the stage next as Argueta (9-1, 2 NC; 1-1, 2 NC UFC) tries to get back in the win column after two unusual events resulting in no contests. Against him will be the debuting undefeated Matsumoto (14-0, 0-0 UFC), who will likely welcome any grappling that Argueta brings to the table. Joining them in the Octagon will be referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in as they decide against touching gloves. Argueta circles around on the outside while Matsumoto holds the center of the cage, and he swings his way in with a clubbing left hand so he can shoot in on the hips. Argueta manages to drag the unbeaten fighter down, and Matsumoto leans up against the wall and starts getting hammered with elbows and punches. Matsumoto looks to work his way up, and Argueta drags him down and continues smacking him around with his free right hand. Matsumoto gets back to his feet, and Argueta quickly trips him out down to a knee. When Matsumoto stands once more, Argueta hits a trip and lands right in full mount. Argueta opens up with elbows and punches, and Matsumoto uses every bit of his energy to explode and reverse the position to stand back up and grab Argueta from behind. Matsumoto looks to wrest Argueta down, and he even lifts the American up, but Argueta does not go down. On a third effort, Matsumoto succeeds in putting Argueta on his back, but only for a moment before Argueta gets back up and turns the tables to toss Matsumoto down. Matsumoto regathers himself and pursues a deep single, and Argueta defends with a kimura in an attempt to sweep. Matsumoto still lands on top, but Argueta turns him over and they get back to their feet. Argueta chases his man down, walking him from one side of the cage to the other before shooting in on a double. Matsumoto sprawls and puts the wall behind him, but Argueta still manages to cinch up Matsumoto’s leg to ground him. Matsumoto fights his way back up and takes a flush knee. Matsumoto gathers himself and lands a leg kick that flusters Argueta, and he rushes after Argueta and kicks him in the face to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Argueta

Round 2
Argueta rushes out of his corner to start off the second round, where he charges for a double and evades a knee by a whisker. Argueta succeeds in stripping Matsumoto’s base and putting him on the mat, but briefly. When Matsumoto climbs up, Argueta lands a mat return. Matsumoto bounces off the floor as if he had springs in his trunks, and Argueta stays tightly pressed against him as he continues to pursue his grappling. Matsumoto gets his hand slapped for grabbing the fence, and Argueta works his way around to take the back. Matsumoto turns around and splits his hips to preemptively prevent a takedown, only for Argueta to still take him down. Argueta’s landed takedown quantity may be high, but his ground control time is limited. Matsumoto counters an advancing Argueta with a right hand, disrupting the takedown as Argueta did not like taking that strike flush. Matsumoto slips and scores a low kick, and he cracks “The Determined” with a right hand that stands him up. Argueta gathers his thoughts and runs face-first into the hips to secure a takedown. Lacing Matsumoto’s legs beneath his own, Argueta keeps Matsumoto down until Matsumoto turns things around and somehow stands and lowers himself to get a single. Argueta stands up and Matsumoto slides out the back door, and he goes after a double but is stood up by the undefeated fighter. Argueta hits his knees for a different approach, and he lets go and stands up to throw hands. Landing a few and getting caught with a right hand, Argueta then decides to stop trading and go after another takedown. Matsumoto stops it in its tracks and pushes him back, and he checks a leg kick and dings Argueta with a right hand when Argueta lands after a missed flying knee.
Argueta dives after a single, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke with seconds to go. Argueta punches the hip as Matsumoto rolls to lock up the guillotine in mount. Argueta taps out and goes out, and he wakes up on top surprised as Herzog tends to him.
This is the first time that Argueta has been finished as a pro, and Matsumoto does it in a big way as he might have been down two rounds had they reached the third. In his successful promotional debut, Matsumoto’s record now reaches 15-0 with one more guillotine added on his ledger.

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Dan Argueta R2 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.

Angelo is watching line movement; Argueta opened at -140 now +175; may bet if line moves further
"I think Dan Argueta is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.

"I'm going to take Dan areda to go out there get takedowns stay safe on top and ultimately win a grinding base decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.

"I'm with you I'm going to side with the uh the contender series graduate in John mats Moto as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.

"I'm a slightly lean with Matsumoto I think he's got more upside."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.

Matsumoto by decision
"I'm going to take Matsumoto to win by decision um but yeah I I think people are overlooking the true skill set and potential of Matsumoto here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.

"I'm gonna go matumoto... Jean masimoto will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.

"Gan matuto 14 and0 undefeated Prospect Wicked striking Wicked low kicks and something that I've noticed in his game is that he's got a very strong bottom half"
Farid Basharat - Fight History
SCHED vs Ethyn Ewing
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

AJ thinks Farid Basharat is the obvious pick, though he has been a decision merchant. He feels Basharat can win by finish, with the finish line at +110. He notes that Basharat's opponent is a pressure fighter but Basharat is crafty and should win. He also mentions Basharat by KO at +1000 as a long shot.

Basharat by finish +110; Basharat by KO +1000; Basharat by submission +140; Basharat by decision +145; Basharat over 1.5 -175
"The pick is obvious here. It's Farad Basharat. Basharat has been a bit of a decision merchant, but I feel like this is a fight that he wins by finish. Farad Bosro to win by finish. The line for it …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

AJ picks Ethan Ewing by decision in a close fight. He believes Ewing's pressure boxing and combination striking will outwork Basharat's distance kickboxing and wrestling. He notes Basharat's craftiness but thinks Ewing's boxing and takedown defense will be the difference. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Ewing.

"I'm gonna go with Ethan Ewing, but Farad Basherat is the biggest test of Euing's career by far."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)

AJ discusses the fight being canceled due to Ewing's injury. He does not make a pick as the fight is off.

"Ethan Ewing's out."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

AJ picks Basharat to win inside the distance, citing his experience, well-rounded game, and the short-notice debut of his opponent. He believes Basharat's submission grappling is a key advantage and that he will finish Garza via submission or TKO. AJ notes that Garza has cardio issues and that Basharat is a lock.

Basharat inside distance; Basharat by submission
"I think that we're going to see Farad Basharat thrive. And I'll go farid by submission finish."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat confidently, noting he is a technical striker with good wrestling who likes to stay at distance. He believes John Garza is a short notice opponent who is mostly a boxer and fades, and that Farid will not play into Garza's game. He expects Farid to win easily and recommends parlaying him.

"Fared's going to win this fight. He's the pick. His only chance to lose this fight if he starts playing around in the pocket. That's not going to happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady passes on this fight, calling it a coin flip between Basharat decision or submission. He does not bet.

"Straight up pass here. It's Boserat, but you got to flip a coin."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Big Brady picks Ethyn Ewing to win by decision. He highlights Ewing's forward pressure, cardio, volume, and power, noting that Ewing has a huge head and is hard to knock out. He acknowledges Farid Basharat's well-rounded skills and wrestling but believes Ewing can stuff takedowns and keep the fight on the feet. He expects a close fight but sees Ewing's momentum as a prospect killer continuing.

"I'm going to say Ewing wins this fight. ... Ewing to win by decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)

This fight was removed from the card due to Ewing pulling out. Big Brady mentions it was one of the best fights on the prelims and expresses disappointment. No pick is made.

"We unfortunately lost Ethan Ewing versus Fared Boserat, which was like the best fight on the prelim. So that that stunk."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody picks Farid Basharat, citing his high ring IQ and ability to win close fights. He notes Garza's lack of UFC experience and durability concerns. He expects Basharat to win by decision but acknowledges the risk of a finish if the UFC pressures him.

Basharat by decision
"I still am going with Boserat. ... decision seems like the most logical choice."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Jacob picks Farid Basharat but notes that John Garza has clean boxing and could make it interesting if he stuffs takedowns. He thinks Farid is a bit overrated but his wrestling and grappling should give him the advantage. He warns that if Farid tries to stand and trade, he could get clipped.

"Yeah, it's probably going to be a Fared play, but we're going to learn a lot about this John Garza guy because as you mentioned, his bo I mean he's got really [ __ ] clean boxing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The host considers Basharat too experienced, well-rounded, and skilled for the UFC newcomer Garza, who is still green. He expects Basharat to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Bachratz to win this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Farid Basharat, noting his undefeated record and ability to win. He is a fan of John Garza but believes the step up in competition is too much. He plans to take a small shot on Garza but expects Basharat to win.

"I understand it's a herculean effort ... but at least this kid was getting ready for a card a couple weeks ago."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat to win by competitive decision. He notes that Basharat often scrapes by against mid-level opponents and that John Gaza (Ethyn Ewing) is stepping in on six days' notice. He is not confident in Basharat's ability to dominate, but thinks Gaza is not ready for this jump.

decision win; Gaza on short notice
"I'm going to pick against him and I'm going to go for Farad Basher at getting this one done by a competitive decision where he wins the final two rounds."
CANCEL vs Ethyn Ewing
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 76 of 220 34% 111 of 263 7 of 11 63% 0 0 4:40
Farid Basharat 0 80 of 152 52% 95 of 172 2 of 7 28% 0 1 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 19 of 52 36% 29 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Farid Basharat 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 20 of 66 30% 30 of 77 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:59
Farid Basharat 0 31 of 52 59% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
3 Jean Matsumoto 0 37 of 102 36% 52 of 118 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:22
Farid Basharat 0 29 of 64 45% 38 of 75 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 76 of 220 34% 40 of 162 20 of 29 16 of 29 62 of 197 14 of 23 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 80 of 152 52% 63 of 132 14 of 16 3 of 4 66 of 136 14 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 19 of 52 36% 11 of 40 0 of 1 8 of 11 16 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 20 of 36 55% 13 of 28 5 of 5 2 of 3 15 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 20 of 66 30% 8 of 44 8 of 11 4 of 11 14 of 56 6 of 10 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 31 of 52 59% 25 of 46 5 of 5 1 of 1 26 of 46 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Jean Matsumoto 37 of 102 36% 21 of 78 12 of 17 4 of 7 32 of 93 5 of 9 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 29 of 64 45% 25 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-280); Matsumoto (+230)

Round 1
It takes a lot to get ranked in the jam-packed bantamweight division, and the winner between Matsumoto (17-1, 3-1 UFC) and Basharat (14-0, 5-0 UFC) may still be another victory away from getting a number next to their name come Monday. They both still have time, clocking in at 26 and 28 years of age, respectively. Former professional fighter and current ref Herb Dean will have the age disadvantage in this affair, but he can still keep up just fine. The fighters touch gloves.
The commentary booth notes that when both Basharat brothers fight on the same card together, they always win. We will see if that trend continues. Matsumoto does not want that to happen, and he gets right in front of Basharat and slugs it out with him. When Basharat responds, Matsumoto fires off a jump knee that skims his intended target. Matsumoto slowly advances, and he takes a spinning back fist on the side of the dome. Matsumoto gathers himself and chucks a low kick, and he absorbs a step-in elbow that slashes open his cheek. Basharat continues pressuring his opponent to the wall, grabbing the fence to hold him there with both hands, and Dean finally sees it and tells him to stop. Matsumoto turns him about when Basharat is not illegally grabbing the cage wall, and they split apart. Matsumoto works his way forward, taking a jab and a low kick that forces a stance switch. He swarms Basharat with his fists, and Basharat slides to the side and bounces off the wall. They toss out left hooks, and Basharat connects with another elbow. He follows the strike with a bullying takedown attempt, pushing Matsumoto back but hitting the wire and springing around.
Basharat spins with a back elbow that partially connects, and he flashes out a jab that knocks Matsumoto’s head back each time. Matsumoto turns the tables and shoots in for a double, and he transitions to a single as Basharat hops around. Matsumoto elevates and dumps him, and Basharat gets right to his knees no worse for wear. Matsumoto grinds and works short punches on the inside until Basharat explodes back upright again in the clinch. Basharat drops down for a single, and an up-elbow from Matsumoto makes Basharat rethink his choice to hang in tight. Matsumoto walks Basharat down, swinging hard but largely whiffing, while Basharat cleanly counters him. Matsumoto whiffs on a spinning back kick and a takedown effort, and Basharat clips him with a right on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Matsumoto charges out of his corner but into the waiting arms of Basharat, who grabs him and turns him around in the clinch. The two jockey for position until Matsumoto splits off, and Basharat thanks him for this with a spin kick that grazes the side. Basharat clips Matsumoto with a short burst of punches, backing up the Brazilian but not taking full advantage of the damage. Matsumoto comes back after him, and Basharat intercepts him, drives a knee into his chest and chucks him carefree to the floor. Matsumoto scampers back up and is met with knees from Basharat, who further bloodies Matsumoto up with his strikes. Matsumoto knees him back, but the impact is substantially different. Basharat voluntarily drops to a knee so that he is a grounded fighter and will not be kneed in the face, so Matsumoto lifts him off the floor and slams him back down. Basharat stands, and Matsumoto takes his back while upright. Basharat grabs the fence again to nearly stop a takedown, but Dean’s admonishment forces him to release it.
Basharat gets pulled to the floor after clinging to the cage, and Matsumoto mat returns him and briefly takes control of his back. Basharat quickly, calmly reverses the position to wind up on top, where he slices through the guard but cannot keep Matsumoto down. Basharat dings him with a knee on the way out, and he throws out another as Matsumoto comes at him. Matsumoto lines up a one-two down the pipe, and he takes a punch while shooting. Basharat considers jumping guard for a guillotine, but he lets it go so he can return to a knee. Matsumoto works Basharat on the side of the head, taking his back again and even briefly hopping on it. He lets go and knees Basharat in the face and clubs him with a left, and is met with quick punches coming back at him. Matsumoto wildly flails to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
Matsumoto swarms his man as soon as the round kicks off, backing Basharat to the fence with big swings and catching him with some. Matsumoto’s sheer pressure result in a brief clinch, and Basharat separates and shoots for a double. Matsumoto stonewalls him and knees him in the stomach before giving him and elbow to think about, and his head kick is barely blocked in the nick of time. Matsumoto lands at the end of a left, and he knocks Basharat’s head around with a subsequent stream of punches. Basharat times a perfect takedown to sweep Matsumoto off his feet and deposit him gingerly to the floor. Matsumoto scoots his way to the fence and wall-walks to stand after a few seconds, and Basharat grabs the cage again as the rules mean nothing when all you have is Herb Dean yelling at you. Matsumoto ducks and dips when Basharat engages, as both men trade hands in flurries. Matsumoto goes for a double, and Basharat takes a knee to defend it.
The Brit stands once more, putting his back to the wall, and he spins out quickly to escape the tie-up. Basharat dings the increasingly bloody Matsumoto with a one-two, and he beats Matsumoto to the punch with faster strikes. Matsumoto is starting to swing with more labored, arcing strikes, but he manages to tag Basharat with one and stun him. Basharat settles down to use straight punches to keep Matsumoto at bay, and he shoots for a double and puts Matsumoto down. Matsumoto rolls through to partially reverse the position, and both men stand back up and start duking it out. Matsumoto keeps his foot on the gas, backing up Basharat with heavy punches as Basharat tries to parry and keep his head on a swivel. Matsumoto chains a takedown into his attack, dragging Basharat to the mat and considering a back take. Basharat stands up before that can happen, which leads Matsumoto to throwing caution to the wind. Basharat absorbs serious punishment and goes for a desperate takedown, dragging the Brazilian to the floor in the waning seconds of the fight. Basharat drops down an elbow and illegally knees Matsumoto in the head with Matsumoto’s knee down on the floor. Matsumoto stands back up and throws leather, ignoring the many fouls inflicted upon him this match, and the close tilt comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Jean Matsumoto via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat, noting he is the better of the Basharat brothers and a well-rounded wrestler with solid striking. He thinks Farid will work on the outside, touch and go, and get takedowns. He warns that Vegas doesn't care about wrestling, so if Farid doesn't do anything with takedowns, it may not matter. He acknowledges Jean Matsumoto's potential but thinks his lack of defense is a problem.

"I think Fared wins this fight. I think Fared's just going to work on the outside, touch and go a little bit, get the takedowns, and I think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady picks Farid Basharat, calling him the better prospect. He notes that Matsumoto has poor takedown defense (53%) and has been taken down multiple times in past fights. Basharat is a good wrestler and grappler, and Brady expects him to take the fight to the ground and win a decision.

by decision
"I'm going Bosch here. I'm going to take Bosch to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody also picks Basharat, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Matsumoto's tendency to be taken down. He notes both fighters are decision-oriented, making the over a strong play. Cody expects Basharat to control the fight with takedowns and win a clear decision.

over 2.5 rounds, Farid Basharat by decision
"I'll be taking Basher up by decision at plus money before that is gone."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, praising Basharat's ability to solve problems and his technical wrestling. He notes that Matsumoto is a tough, indefatigable bully, but Basharat has the tools to handle him. He thinks Basharat's wrestling and fight IQ will be the difference, though Matsumoto's durability could make it a tough fight.

Same odds discussion.
"I have to pick Bashirat."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Lucrative James picks Farid Basharat to win by decision. He expects Basharat to employ a grappling-heavy game plan, using his elite cardio and takedown volume to control the fight. James notes that Matsumoto has been taken down multiple times in past fights and that Basharat's wrestling will be the key to victory.

"I think Fared extends his winning streak to 15. I think he goes 15 and0 with a decision win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Basharat, believing his overall game and grappling will be the difference. He notes Basharat's reach and height advantage, and his ability to mix in takedowns after striking. He expects Basharat to snipe Matsumoto from distance, then use control time and top damage to win on the scorecards. He acknowledges Matsumoto's striking could make it competitive but thinks Basharat's grappling edge is decisive.

"Official prediction here will be Basharat, just a better overall game. His grappling will be the difference maker, and I think that leads to Basharat winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Farid Basharat, citing his high ring IQ and ability to stick to game plans. He notes Matsumoto's poor takedown defense and defensive striking. Paul expects Basharat to mix takedowns with striking and win a decision, recommending a prop on Basharat by decision.

Farid Basharat by decision
"Bosat sticks to the game plan like doesn't deter from it which is why he's 14-0."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto. He notes Matsumoto's recent performances have been lackluster, while Basharat has size and physicality. He thinks Basharat's mix of striking and grappling will be too much, and he can bully Matsumoto against the cage and in scrambles.

"I'm going to go Farid Basharat. I like his mixing up of the striking and the grappling."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because of his impressive game planning and technical wrestling. He notes that Basharat has shown he can adapt to any opponent, using pressure boxing against Gutierrez, counter wrestling against Hugo, and wrestling against Lapelis. He thinks Basharat's technical wrestling will be too much for Matsumoto, who relies on scrambling and physicality.

Basharat opened at -400, currently -265; Matsumoto opened at +330, currently +225.
"I got to pick him."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Gutierrez 0 31 of 86 36% 61 of 119 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:42
Farid Basharat 0 41 of 110 37% 56 of 126 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Gutierrez 0 3 of 7 42% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Farid Basharat 0 9 of 24 37% 23 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
2 Chris Gutierrez 0 9 of 33 27% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Farid Basharat 0 20 of 48 41% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
3 Chris Gutierrez 0 19 of 46 41% 23 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:42
Farid Basharat 0 12 of 38 31% 12 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Gutierrez 31 of 86 36% 18 of 63 0 of 3 13 of 20 30 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1
Farid Basharat 41 of 110 37% 19 of 75 5 of 11 17 of 24 39 of 104 0 of 0 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Gutierrez 3 of 7 42% 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 9 of 24 37% 2 of 9 0 of 3 7 of 12 7 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Chris Gutierrez 9 of 33 27% 2 of 20 0 of 2 7 of 11 9 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Farid Basharat 20 of 48 41% 11 of 36 3 of 4 6 of 8 20 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Gutierrez 19 of 46 41% 15 of 41 0 of 0 4 of 5 18 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Farid Basharat 12 of 38 31% 6 of 30 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Chris Gutierrez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-440), Gutierrez (+340)

Round 1
Two bantamweights on the way up will meet in a bout shifted down to the early prelims for some reason, even though the victor may have a number next to their name on Monday. Gutierrez (22-6-2, 10-3-1 UFC) will likely be fighting behind his many kicks, while “Ferocious” Basharat (13-0, 4-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat in the cage. Referee Herb Dean will take care of business, and the fighters gladly bump fists before engaging.
What results early on is a whole lot of shadowboxing, feinting and faking to find their respective range. The first strike committed to is a spinning back kick from Basharat about 90 seconds in, and Gutierrez pays it no mind and keeps raising his leg up to serve as a shield. Basharat kicks his way into a takedown shot, and his double-leg entry succeeds in bringing Gutierrez to the floor.
Basharat gets busier than the few athletes from earlier tonight that have taken the fight down, but it does not take long for Gutierrez to shut him down from much more. Basharat postures up and drives down a right hand, and it is one-and-done as he gets swallowed up in the guard. Gutierrez maintains a high guard, it seemingly active enough to stave off much offense. Basharat scores another ground strike or two, but he is much more interested getting to half guard. The upkicks from Gutierrez allow him to push Basharat off of him, only for the man born in Afghanistan to climb back on top and ride out the slow round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Basharat runs out of his corner but stops right in the center of the cage, not willing to go much further ahead. This allows Gutierrez to lobby kicks at him, although Basharat’s punches that he sits down on are much more effective. Gutierrez fakes spins to draw Basharat off-guard, and he punches through the raised hands to scores a straight left. Gutierrez chips at the lead leg from his preferred range of distance kickboxing, and Basharat meets him with one or two back before swinging with a big left and a high kick on the other side to get the American’s attention. Gutierrez blocks a wide overhand right and kicks the lead wheel again, with Basharat offering back a hefty body kick.
Basharat splits the guard with a huge one-two that staggers Gutierrez, and he backs off to celebrate his success. Basharat hurls looping strikes, and a front kick surprises the kickfighter. Gutierrez replies with a spin kick to the ribs, and Basharat gathers his thoughts and sits down on a power right hand. Basharat ties them up against the fencing, and Gutierrez separates without much issue. Gutierrez fakes to spin a few times, and Basharat leaps at him with a jump knee that does not find the mark. A Rolling Thunder kick from Basharat punctuates the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Basharat strikes first with a calf kick. Gutierrez hammers him back with a low kick and a combo of punches, and he gets Basharat’s attention. The pressure from the American has surprised Basharat, who is on his heels and on the verge of being taken down. Gutierrez wrenches his man down to the floor, and holds him down from behind without tossing much. Basharat powers back to his feet and throws everything he has into a monster left and right, and Gutierrez dances out of the way without absorbing anything. Basharat pitches a left hand around the guard, and he just misses a spin kick. Basharat’s one-two skims off his intended target, and his spin without a kick just makes him twirl around aimlessly. Gutierrez scoops in a heavy left hook, but it is a single strike and what follows are feints.
Basharat drops to his knees and commits to a picture-perfect explosive double, scooping Gutierrez up and slamming him down to his back. Gutierrez gives his back up standing, and he shimmies Basharat off of him to put the Brit on his back now. Basharat scrambles to his knees and dives for a single-leg takedown, and Gutierrez lets him up and pushes off to fake spin weakly with a back fist. Basharat tries to keep him at bay with a push kick, and he takes a left hand and fires off a body kick that glances the cup. Gutierrez adjusts his athletic supporter and just manages to block a spinning wheel kick, and he crashes the pocket for two punches. Gutierrez reaches his foe with a spinning back fist, and his front kick after it appears much more effective. They both swing for big hooks and crash into one another, and a Gutierrez spin goes wide. Gutierrez knocks Basharat off his feet with a shovel right hand as seconds remain on the clock, and time expires before he can do anything with his opponent on his back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez (29-28 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo sees Farid Basharat as the better fighter everywhere, with underrated striking and very good wrestling. He notes Chris Gutierrez has wrestling holes, having been taken down seven times in his last four fights. He thinks Farid's takedown defense and movement will be key, and that Gutierrez's leg kicks might not be enough to slow him down. He considers the 4-to-1 odds appropriate.

"Fared is an underrated striker, a very good wrestler. I think he can beat Chris Gutierrez everywhere. I think he likely wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady is very confident in Farid Basharat, calling him a massive favorite at -450. He criticizes Chris Gutierrez as a boring fighter who relies on leg kicks and has poor takedown defense and get-up game. He notes that Gutierrez has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and Basharat has a massive advantage in wrestling and grappling. He predicts Basharat wins by decision.

"Give me Farid Bosat. I think he wins this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Basharat because Gutierrez has shown he cannot handle persistent pressure, as in the Pedro Munhoz fight. He notes that Basharat's real skill is taking openings given to him, using strikes to set up takedowns, and that Gutierrez's frustration will mount. However, he cautions that Basharat has never applied the relentless pressure of Munhoz and may need to adjust to Gutierrez's frustrating style.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Connor comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'
"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

Basharat's grinding game is expected to be effective against Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back. The host expects Basharat to be competitive in striking and mix in wrestling for a decision victory.

"I believe this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Basharat to go out there and get to his grinding game as most opponents have struggled to deal with it. Specifically, Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his offensive grappling and mixing of strikes. He notes Chris Gutierrez's vulnerability to takedowns and lack of finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Farid Basharat getting this one done by 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because he believes Basharat's pressure and wrestling will break Gutierrez, who has a history of emotional breakdowns when fights get difficult, as seen against Pedro Munhoz. He notes that Basharat's game allows for connective pressure, and even if Gutierrez frustrates him early, Basharat's versatility will eventually overwhelm Gutierrez's neutralization game.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Zane comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'
"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."
WIN vs Victor Hugo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farid Basharat 0 60 of 126 47% 89 of 168 4 of 7 57% 0 0 4:37
Victor Hugo 0 45 of 125 36% 48 of 128 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farid Basharat 0 22 of 38 57% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Victor Hugo 0 10 of 38 26% 11 of 39 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:04
2 Farid Basharat 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Victor Hugo 0 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
3 Farid Basharat 0 8 of 17 47% 32 of 47 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:53
Victor Hugo 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farid Basharat 60 of 126 47% 39 of 98 8 of 13 13 of 15 54 of 116 2 of 3 4 of 7
Victor Hugo 45 of 125 36% 23 of 82 14 of 28 8 of 15 43 of 122 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farid Basharat 22 of 38 57% 11 of 24 2 of 4 9 of 10 20 of 33 0 of 0 2 of 5
Victor Hugo 10 of 38 26% 4 of 24 3 of 8 3 of 6 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Farid Basharat 30 of 71 42% 22 of 59 5 of 8 3 of 4 29 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
Victor Hugo 25 of 66 37% 11 of 40 9 of 17 5 of 9 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Farid Basharat 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2
Victor Hugo 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-625), Hugo (+455)

Round 1
Once preparing for a bantamweight contest, Basharat (12-0, 3-0 UFC) learned on Friday morning that his opponent Hugo (25-4, 1-0 UFC) was about to come in 10 pounds over the 136-pound limit. Rather than the match falling apart, the Brit born in Afghanistan decided to allow Hugo to weigh in at that newly agreed range of featherweight. Basharat will officially clock in eight pounds lighter than his opponent as a result, and the bout may not have remained together if the event were running with commission oversight. This 145-pound tilt will be officiated by referee Kerry Hatley, and because of what would have been a nearly historic miss, there is no interest in a glove touch. The fight begins with Hugo diving after a takedown, missing so badly that Basharat stands firm and slugs him in the chops on the way up. Hugo walks his man down, and Basharat is lighter on his feet, sniping him from a safe distance. Hugo steps in with a solid right hand, and Basharat gathers himself, bounces off the fence and pays the Brazilian back with his own right hook. Hugo catches a front kick and trips his man up, and Basharat regains his balance and winds up with a right hand. Hugo keeps chasing, fighting behind a jab and a front kick, and Basharat connects with a leg kick on the outside. Basharat shoots for a single, and he bails on it when seeing it will not succeed. Leg kicks come on both sides, and Hugo whips a high kick at him that is blocked. Basharat slips and rips a right hand over the top, and walks face-first into a spinning back elbow. The man from Afghanistan wears it well and chops down the front leg a few times, and Hugo dives for a rolling heel hook and succeeds in dragging Basharat to the floor. Basharat turns to the side and gets out of danger, where he walks over to side control easily and opens up a cut on the corner of Hugo’s left eye with strikes. Hugo explodes back to his feet and leans back to dodge a spinning wheel kick, and he meanders forward to throw hands with his opponent. Basharat lines up a right hand and a left, beating the heavier man to the punch and getting off a quick kick before intercepting a spinning Hugo. Basharat wraps his hands around his foe’s waist and pushes off to reset, and he dodges a looping punch and drives a right hand over the top. Hugo leaps after another heel hook, and Basharat wags his finger at his opponent at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
The fight resumes with both men meeting in the middle measuring their strikes. Basharat pushes off a few punches, and Hugo fights behind kicks to the lead leg and body. Hugo crashes the pocket, and Basharat times a perfect jump knee that bashes his man in the face. Hugo keeps a stiff upper lip and rebounds off the fence, and he lets loose a number of unanswered calf kicks. Basharat lets fly a right hook, and he switches stances to work his way in and connect with another. Hugo spins with a back fist that makes him hit the deck, and he springs back up when Basharat does not want to deal with him on the mat. Basharat instead allows Hugo up so he can stick out a right hand, and Hugo spins with nothing and chains a kick into it. Basharat works the body a few times with long left hands, and Hugo drops his hands and lines up a low kick. Hugo clips Basharat with a left, and Basharat blinks it out and counters him cleanly a few times. Basharat’s footwork allows him to slip and rip strikes, rolling with counters if they land at all and giving him the proper distance to get in and get away. They trade jabs, and Basharat fakes a takedown to draw out a reaction. Hugo loads up on power strikes, and he raises his arms in the air after they nail one another with heavy blows. Hugo gets his foe’s attention with a sharp left hand, and he follows it with another to wobble Basharat’s legs briefly. Hugo’s momentum allows him to grip hold of the Afghan-born fighter, lifting him in the air to slam him on his seat. Basharat wall-walks to get up and free, and he lets Hugo swing at him wildly so he can counter slickly. Hugo spins with another elbow that dings his man in the chin, and Basharat wags his finger at him. The jabs from Basharat have reopened Hugo’s cut, and Hugo shrugs at him and tries to engage a brawl. Basharat stays light on his feet, pushing through to grab Hugo when Hugo spins. The horn sounds when they clash together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
Hugo is loaded for bear to begin the final frame, swinging wildly with punches and kicks. Basharat uses his footwork and head movement to stay safe until Hugo catches him with a right hand and knocks him across the cage with a spinning back kick to the ribcage. Basharat rebounds off the fence and back upright, and he circles away to get some space. Hugo’s momentum gets him tied up, and Basharat knees him in the chest, but Hugo is exploding to do anything and his punches have some serious heat on them. This forces him off-balance, and Basharat sees this and times a smart takedown to put the Brazilian on his back. Hugo throws his legs up to threaten off his back as soon as he hits the ground, and Basharat wriggles out of it and assumes side control. Hugo gets hold of an unorthodox triangle from the side, and Basharat forces his way out once more and rolls Hugo to his back. Hugo attempts a brief shoulder lock, and Basharat softens him up with some ground-and-pound. Hugo works to his feet, only to succumb to a mat return. Basharat climbs on the back, and he fastens a rear-naked choke that is on the jaw. Hugo does not show any concern, instead pulling on the fence to stand back up. Hatley sees this and swats his hand away, and Basharat remains focused on wrenching the newcomer to the floor and taking his power away. Hugo rolls for a leglock, and this forces Basharat to abandon ship. Hugo charges like a bull, swinging wildly and into another takedown from the unbeaten fighter. Basharat easily puts Hugo on his knees, where he slips a hook in and takes the back. Basharat wraps a body triangle around the waist, preventing the Brazilian from turning while smacking him upside the head with an elbow. Before Basharat can assume full mount, Hugo turns to his back, and Basharat rains down another sharp elbow. Hugo pursues one final leglock, and Basharat grabs the fence to break free. They both stand up, and Hugo races at him but cannot reach him before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Victor Hugo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat with medium confidence. He highlights Farid's well-rounded skills, especially his wrestling, and expects him to take Victor Hugo down and control him. He notes Victor is dangerous but wild, and Farid's wrestling should neutralize that. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds is probably safe.

Over 2.5 rounds probably safe.
"fared is going to be the pick here I'm medium confident in that because Victor Hugo is a dangerous guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Bigrady picks Basharat, believing he has Hugo covered everywhere. He notes that Hugo is a grappler who can be taken down and controlled, and that Basharat is the better striker and can easily get takedowns if needed. He thinks the price is a bit high but expects Basharat to cruise to a decision win.

"I'm going BOS rat to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody picks Farid Basharat, praising his high ring IQ and relentless grappling. He notes that Basharat's chain wrestling and control will neutralize Hugo, who has poor takedown defense. Cody believes Basharat will dominate with takedowns and control time, winning by decision or submission. He considers Basharat a top play.

"I got Fred bosra and to be honest with you I think I got him probably everywhere"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor picks Basharat, agreeing that he is a very simple call. He notes that Basharat is a really technical wrestler and grappler with a functional striking game, and he has handled tough opponents. Hugo's game is based on opportunistic grappling, but Basharat will shut that down easily.

"So. So great. Very simple call. Yes. And Bashirat, he is the biggest favorite on the card, which he well deserves to be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Daniel Vreeland picks Farid Basharat to win, citing his superior process and minute-winning ability. He acknowledges that Victor Hugo is a tough veteran with a long unbeaten streak but believes Basharat's volume and pressure will be the difference. Vreeland notes that Hugo's leg lock attacks could pose a threat if Basharat takes him down.

"I'm going to pick bosot here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Daniel Vreeland sees Basharat as clearly better on the feet and expects him to have multiple takedowns if needed. He notes that Hugo got out-wrestled in his Contender Series fight and only won via a kneebar, which won't work against Basharat. Vreeland predicts Basharat cruises to an easy win, though with low finishing upside.

"this is as simple as the fact that bat's cleaner on the feet bosot should have half a dozen takedowns if he needs them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, stating that Basharat is better at what Hugo likes to do and worse at what Hugo hates. He implies Basharat's wrestling and pace will be too much for Hugo, and expects a dominant performance.

"he's better that he Hugo what Hugo likes to do so yeah BOS rot is and what he hates to do"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Basharat is the better brother, mixing his grappling behind educated striking. He should grind out Victor Hugo and win on the scorecards. His overall game is superior.

"look for fared to go out there and grinding out Victor Hugo and getting the win on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Basharat, noting that Hugo is a step down in competition and that Basharat's grappling will be too much. He mentions that Hugo has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Basharat's wrestling is elite. Paul is confident Basharat wins, possibly by submission.

"basharat was able to go against Alan boso who has pretty good Jiu-Jitsu"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his well-roundedness and UFC experience. He was unimpressed with Victor Hugo's last performance against Pedro Falcao, noting Hugo spent too much time being controlled. He believes Basharat's mixing of strikes and takedowns will outwork Hugo, who is more of a striker with takedown defense. The Guru also mentions Basharat's wins over Da'Mon Blackshear and Mario Bautista as solid.

"I think I'm going to go with Farid Basharat because I was very unimpressed with Victor Hugo's last performance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

Zane picked Basharat emphatically, using the fight to argue against the idea that missing weight is a huge advantage. He noted that Hugo missed weight by 10 pounds and looked massive, but Basharat fought way better, took good counters, and made the most of opportunities. Zane believes that if one pound is the difference between winning and losing, the fighter's game is too limited.

"farid basherat went out there and proved that absolutely correct because victor hugo looked massive he looked dangerous he went for he hit basherat really hard and basherat just fought way better than him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat confidently, noting that he is really good everywhere and has handled three completely different tricky opponents effortlessly. Hugo is an opportunistic grappler who can be backed up easily, and Basharat will shut down his grappling and control the fight anywhere.

"So now you've got Hugo who can be backed up really easily and tends to only kind of take single opportunities to strike and try to drive his opponent off of him and from pressuring him. ... I cannot for …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farid Basharat 0 42 of 100 42% 55 of 116 5 of 16 31% 1 0 6:58
Taylor Lapilus 0 40 of 93 43% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farid Basharat 0 14 of 35 40% 20 of 41 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:37
Taylor Lapilus 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Farid Basharat 0 15 of 33 45% 18 of 37 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:28
Taylor Lapilus 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Farid Basharat 0 13 of 32 40% 17 of 38 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:53
Taylor Lapilus 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farid Basharat 42 of 100 42% 14 of 53 7 of 19 21 of 28 39 of 92 2 of 5 1 of 3
Taylor Lapilus 40 of 93 43% 24 of 67 11 of 16 5 of 10 34 of 86 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farid Basharat 14 of 35 40% 2 of 16 1 of 7 11 of 12 14 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
Taylor Lapilus 14 of 29 48% 7 of 19 6 of 6 1 of 4 8 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4
2 Farid Basharat 15 of 33 45% 6 of 17 4 of 9 5 of 7 12 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 3
Taylor Lapilus 19 of 39 48% 11 of 28 5 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Farid Basharat 13 of 32 40% 6 of 20 2 of 3 5 of 9 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Taylor Lapilus 7 of 25 28% 6 of 20 0 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-278), Lapilus (+225)

Round 1
Treating fans next is a historic bantamweight clash pitting Afghanistan against France, as Basharat (11-0, 2-0 UFC)—who currently resides and trains in England—collides with MMA Factory’s Lapilus (19-3, 4-1 UFC). The former still has his zero intact, while the latter has earned six victories in a row, the most important of which was his last triumph that came over the highly touted Caolan Loughran. The third man in the cage will be referee Chris Tognoni, and he starts the clock as the fighters do not touch gloves. Basharat starts the fight off with two kicks up top, and Lapilus leans back to evade them. Basharat changes it up with a pair of calf kicks, and he gets in an axe kick to surprise his opponent. Lapilus aims several punches at his foe, but Basharat is able to avoid and continue scoring kicks. Basharat suddenly shoots in for a single, and he succeeds in setting the Frenchman on his seat for a second before Lapilus bounces right back up. Lapilus gets away with a fence grab as he keeps scrambling, and Basharat cannot keep his foe down for long. Lapilus defends a takedown effort by wrapping up a choke, and Basharat drops to his back in order to escape it. Lapilus gets back to striking range when both fighters get back up, and he absorbs or blocks a number of kicks from the distant man from Afghanistan. Both men land single punches, but it is Basharat who is following with kicks. When “Double Impact” attempts his own kick, Basharat snatches up his leg and dumps him to the ground. Lapilus pops back up, sneaks in a knee and pushes off. Basharat prods and pokes with low kicks, until Lapilus grabs hold of him to blast him in the chest with a knee. Basharat retreats and dodges a left hand, and he keeps his guard up to defend from a high kick. Basharat kicks the side twice and shoots for a double, and Lapilus falls to his knees and grabs the cage wall for a moment. Lapilus elbows his foe in the spine a few times to draw a pair of warnings, and Basharat pulls his legs out from beneath him to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
Lapilus turns up his volume slightly to start off the second round, and Basharat retaliates with his own kicks high and low. Lapilus slaps his foot off the side of his opponent’s head, and Basharat grabs his hand to try to keep him stuck on one position. When Basharat does this, Lapilus wraps his other foot around the top and smacks Basharat in the face. Basharat backs off and suddenly attacks with a takedown effort, but the Frenchman shuts it down much easier than before. Basharat goes to the body with a kick, and Lapilus responds with a punch and a high kick that glances off the shoulder. Lapilus is just out of his range with his fists, and he ducks away from a spinning back fist. Basharat drops down for a single, and on his second attempt, he succeeds in grounding his foe. Lapilus gets to a knee, and Basharat circles around to take his back. As this happens, Lapilus scrambles to get out of the bad position and right back to his feet. Lapilus prods out several jabs, as Basharat kicks him in the sternum. Lapilus lets his hands go as he walks Basharat down, and Basharat absorbs or blocks some of them before sprinting and tackling Lapilus to his seat. Basharat lowers himself down to trap Lapilus, sitting in half guard and shutting down any escape attempts from “Double Impact.” Lapilus tugs his toes on the fencing several times to try to improve position, and Basharat elbows him twice before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 3
The final round kicks off with both bantamweights meeting one another in the center of the cage. Basharat strikes first with a head kick attempt, and Lapilus responds with a kick that glances off the pectoral. Lapilus kicks low and punches high, and Basharat backs him off with a right hand. The two hand-fight, leading to Basharat trying to locate another head kick. Lapilus evades it and sticks out a big left hand, forcing Basharat to reset. Lapilus lands another solid left hand, and Basharat is there in his face with an overhand right. The two clash their shins together with kicks until Basharat shoots for a single. Lapilus defends and backs himself to the wall, but the London Shootfighters product is able to elevate him and dump him to his backside. Lapilus leans his back on the wall as he tries to sit up, and Basharat drags his legs down and pulls him away from the wire to stop him from wall-walking. Lapilus scoots himself towards the barrier and works his way up, and he thanks Basharat for his takedown by punching him in the face a few times. Lapilus sits down on a heavy left hand, and Basharat shakes it off. “Ferocious Farid” lashes out with a punch, a kick and a takedown try. The single allows Basharat to drag his foe to the floor, and he climbs into side control and maintains heavy chest pressure. Basharat considers moving into mount, but Lapilus defends his effort even as he is pinned to his back. Basharat grinds his elbow on the face and lands a few punches, and he looks to lock down one of Lapilus’ arms before shifting the other direction to north-south position. The space Basharat leaves allows Lapilus to turn to get out, but Basharat locks down a brabo choke that is suddenly quite tight. Lapilus manages to break the grip and explode back to his feet, and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (30-27 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Taylor Lapilus via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat confidently, citing his superior wrestling and solid striking. He notes that Taylor Lapilus is a good kickboxer with decent takedown defense but was taken down twice by C.J. LaRue, and Farid is a much better wrestler. He believes Farid will win on the feet and in grappling exchanges with forward pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds and has it in a parlay.

Over 2.5 rounds in a parlay
"fared is going to win just on the feet he's going to win the grappling exchanges he's going to win with forward pressure."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Big Brady thinks the line is too wide and that Taylor Lapilus is underrated. He believes Lapilus has good takedown defense and fast hands, and if he keeps the fight standing, he can out-strike Basharat. He sees a close fight possibly going to a split decision, and picks Lapilus as a live underdog.

split decision
"I'm going to pick lapas here as as a really big dog I'm going to take him to win by decision like a split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Cody picks Lapilus as a sizable underdog, citing his striking advantage, speed, footwork, and solid takedown defense. He believes Lapilus can stuff takedowns and outpoint Basharat on the feet. He notes that Basharat's wrestling may be overrated and that Lapilus has the experience to win a decision.

"I'm just going to plug my nose and take lapas"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Daniel Vreeland leans with Farid Basharat, praising his pace, stance switching, and relentless takedown attempts. He acknowledges Lapilus's technical striking and improved takedown defense, but thinks Basharat's pressure and ground game will be the difference. Vreeland notes that if Lapilus can keep it standing, he might have success, but Basharat's relentless style could make him hesitant.

"I'm gonna lean a little bit towards fared here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He discusses a fight between Fared Basherat and Chris Gutierrez, which is not on the card.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat is a talented 26-year-old with crisp striking and a strong grappling game, training at Extreme Couture under Jake Shields. He mixes takedowns well and has a smothering top game. Taylor Lapilus is an experienced striker with decent power but has shown vulnerability to grappling, as seen in the Colin Anglin fight. Basharat's wrestling and control should be the difference, allowing him to grind out a decision. The line at -245 is a bit wide, but Basharat's grappling advantage should secure the win.

Farid by decision, hoping for plus money on decision prop
"what I'd be looking to Target is possibly fared by decision as I think they will get at least a decent plus money spot there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Taylor Lapilus

Paul picks Lapilus, echoing Cody's sentiments. He notes that Lapilus has a massive advantage on the feet and that Basharat's grappling may not be as effective against a good takedown defender. He believes Lapilus will be making his card at +235.

"at plus 235 he will 100% be making my card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat after considering Taylor Lapilus as an underdog. He rewatched Lapilus's fight with Kyler Phillips and was unimpressed, noting Lapilus lacked versatility and didn't make reads. He believes Basharat is on a different level and will win, though he acknowledges Lapilus could stuff takedowns.

"I'm going to go fared basharat I think he's a lot better I just don't think Taylor lapus has what it takes"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farid Basharat 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 36 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:15
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 7 of 8 87% 25 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farid Basharat 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 36 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:15
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 7 of 8 87% 25 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farid Basharat 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kleydson Rodrigues 7 of 8 87% 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farid Basharat 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kleydson Rodrigues 7 of 8 87% 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-325), Rodrigues (+260)

Round 1
The action continues in the bantamweight division, when undefeated London Shootfighters product Basharat (10-0, 1-0 UFC) tries to keep his pro record unblemished against former flyweight Rodrigues (8-2, 1-1 UFC). A rarity for this fight card, neither competitor is fighting for French honor and glory in this matchup. With referee Loic Pora keeping a watchful eye on the action, the two men touch gloves ahead of their scheduled melee. Basharat moves right to the center of the cage and pushes Rodrigues back, and he ignores a low kick and absorbs one to the body in rapid succession. “K.R.” wraps his foot around the head of his opponent, and Basharat responds with a speedy takedown effort. Rodrigues stifles it and attempts to take the back standing, only to jump around and try to set up an unorthodox submission maneuver. Basharat stays composed and dumps Rodrigues to his back, and he does not waste much time before passing to half guard. Rodrigues responds with a few elbows to the thigh, and Basharat pays them no mind as he steps over to full mount with little effort. Basharat stays tightly pressed to his opponent instead of setting up some offense, and he takes some of the wind out of the explosive Brazilian’s sails with this pressure. Basharat gets off some short ground-and-pound, until Rodrigues bursts out of the bad position, reverses the position and is about to put Basharat on his back. Before he can, Basharat jumps back to his feet, and the two end up in the clinch. Rodrigues sneaks in several effective strikes on the inside, but he cannot stop Basharat from tripping up one leg and placing “K.R.” on his back. Basharat again methodically looks to pass the guard, and he frustrates Rodrigues with effective blows from above. Rodrigues fights back, only to take several elbows right on the jaw.
Basharat uses shoulder pressure and smoothly sets up a kata gatame, and he steps over to the side while Rodrigues is attempting to break the grip. Basharat presses his full body weight down as he completely secures the arm-triangle choke, and there is nothing more that Rodrigues can do at this point. After a few seconds of this dire position, Rodrigues surrenders
, and Basharat keeps his unbeaten record intact with a slick performance over a dangerous opponent.

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Kleydson Rodrigues R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat but with low confidence, noting the betting lines should be closer. He says Farid is the more technically sound fighter but didn't like pressure from Damon Blackshear, and Kleydson is all pressure. If Kleydson brawls, he can win. Angelo is staying away from the -300 line.

"low confidence pick for freed... he's gonna be the pick but three to one I'm staying away from that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady picks Basharat, emphasizing his size, striking volume, and wrestling advantage. He notes Rodrigues' past weight issues and tough debut at bantamweight. He expects Basharat to use takedowns and control to win a decision, calling it a tough matchup for Rodrigues.

"I think fari basharat is just going to probably be better you know everywhere this fight goes... I like him to take down clutson Rodriguez control him and ultimately win a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody is high on Basharat, calling him a real prospect at 26-0. He likes his movement, striking, and improving wrestling under Jake Shields. Basharat's win over Da'Mon Blackshear is a quality victory. Rodrigues has weight issues (missed weight twice) and is moving up to 135, which will affect his takedown defense. Cody expects Basharat to pick him apart on the feet and mix in takedowns.

Basharat by decision (pick'em); Basharat over 2.5 takedowns (prize picks)
"I really like this kid... sky's the limit for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Daniel Levi picks Farid Basharat with high confidence, having bet him at -245 earlier. He praises Basharat's footwork, jab, fight IQ, and heart, noting that he passed a tough test against Damon Blackshear. Levi believes Basharat's pace and pressure will be too much for Rodrigues, who is explosive but tends to fade and has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a second or third round finish, citing Basharat's ground and pound and submission defense.

Basharat wins in round 2 or 3; already bet at -245
"I like everything about Fareed and again when you beat a line by over a dollar like I already have"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

I like the chalk on Basharat. He has a slick boxing/kickboxing game and blends in takedowns well. Rodrigues is moving up in weight and has cardio issues. Basharat should establish range, get the fight to the clinch, and take advantage of Rodrigues' gas tank. I also like Basharat round three as a sprinkle. If the fight escapes the first round, Basharat should dominate later rounds.

Basharat round three
"I like the chalk on bash right if I'm being honest if you want to hedge anything here maybe Clayton round one but if this fight escapes that first round I won't have any worries on the free Bachelorette side …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Basharat by decision is basically a pick'em. He notes Rodrigues has never been finished, so a decision is likely. Paul likes Basharat over 2.5 takedowns on prize picks, expecting a takedown per round.

Basharat over 2.5 takedowns (prize picks)
"I'm with you with you through thick and thin there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his win over Damon Blackshear as having aged well, and noting that Kleydson Rodrigues has losses to CJ Vergara and a win over Shannon Ross. He believes Basharat is more well-rounded and will drown Rodrigues in the second and third rounds, though he acknowledges Rodrigues could land a spinning kick early. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Basharat.

"I'm going with farrid Basher out here this is one of the easier ones on the card to call"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farid Basharat 0 46 of 117 39% 91 of 164 1 of 6 16% 1 1 2:38
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 58 of 96 60% 76 of 115 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farid Basharat 0 9 of 36 25% 17 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 17 of 31 54% 20 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:41
2 Farid Basharat 0 15 of 36 41% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 21 of 30 70% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
3 Farid Basharat 0 22 of 45 48% 44 of 69 0 of 2 0% 1 1 0:57
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 20 of 35 57% 32 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farid Basharat 46 of 117 39% 23 of 79 12 of 16 11 of 22 36 of 106 7 of 8 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 58 of 96 60% 36 of 70 14 of 17 8 of 9 42 of 79 4 of 5 12 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farid Basharat 9 of 36 25% 1 of 19 2 of 4 6 of 13 9 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 17 of 31 54% 8 of 19 4 of 6 5 of 6 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Farid Basharat 15 of 36 41% 7 of 23 4 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 31 1 of 2 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 21 of 30 70% 13 of 21 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 23 0 of 0 7 of 7
3 Farid Basharat 22 of 45 48% 15 of 37 6 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 39 6 of 6 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 20 of 35 57% 15 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 26 3 of 4 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-410), Blackshear (+330)

Round 1
Keeping things trucking, bantamweights take center stage as Jackson-Wink product Blackshear (12-4-1, 0-0-1 UFC) looks for his first UFC win against the debuting London Shootfighters rep Basharat (9-0, 0-0 UFC). Both men sport a single knockout on their respective ledgers, as well as exactly three decision victories apiece, with the rest by submission. This potentially fun grappling contest will tolerate no nonsense because of the officiating from free referee Keith Peterson, and it begins not with a glove touch but a flying kick from Blackshear. Basharat slides to the side without concern, and he keeps his range from the reaching strikes that follow. Blackshear attempts a jumping switch kick, and Basharat parries it and chops the lead leg. “Da Monster” crashes forward with a jump knee, and he collides into Basharat without landing it. Basharat scores a right hand through the guard, and he kicks the side. Blackshear catches his leg and pushes him back to the wall, smacking him upside the head with a left hand as he did. Blackshear sets it down and gets pushed around when his takedown does not succeed, and Basharat rips the body a few times and lands a left up high. The two fighters trade jabs, and Basharat shoots in for a single-leg takedown and lifts Blackshear’s leg up. When Blackshear balances against the fence, Basharat drags him out and sets him on his seat in the open cage. Blackshear maintains a butterfly guard and looks to sweep, but Basharat remains on top and passes to half guard. Basharat springs over the body to take side control, and he presses his shoulder on Blackshear’s face and drops it on him a few times for good measure. Blackshear explodes in the bad position, and he bucks his hips and escapes to get back to his feet. When on two legs again, Blackshear jumps with a kick, and Basharat fires off a left hand that just misses the mark. Basharat slings a quick head kick that is blocked, and Blackshear paws out push kicks to the knee. The English fighter spins with a back fist, and he parries a jump kick right at the bell to conclude the razor-close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
The bantamweights meet in the middle without a flying strike this time around, and Blackshear uses his lead leg to keep Basharat at bay until Basharat steps in with a solid right hand. Blackshear darts forward throwing punches from unorthodox angles, ignoring jabs that come his way until he pushes ahead to snag a body lock. “Da Monster” uses the momentum to drive Basharat down to the floor, and he keeps him there for barely a second before Basharat climbs back up. Basharat eats a few strikes and grins at his opponent, and Blackshear loads up with a few head kicks that all collide off the guard. Basharat answers with one of his own that is up close and personal, and this gets blocked as well. Blackshear jumps forward with a knee to the body, and he tries to chain it with a tackling takedown. Blackshear bails on the attempt as they move up against the fence, and he circles around to drag Basharat down from behind. Blackshear stifles a Basharat spin and pushes his foe down to his stomach, and he threatens with a choke at an odd angle. Basharat does not appear concerned, turning about and kicking off the fight to his feet. Before Blackshear can get going with his rangy kicks, Basharat closes the distance to hit a double and land straight in side control. Blackshear recovers to a closed guard despite getting punched in the face, and when he does, “Ferocious Farid” lands some ferocious elbows and punches. The unbeaten fighter rides out the round in this position, landing strikes from close proximity.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 3
Blackshear leads off the last round kicking, targeting the legs, body and head indiscriminately. As he moves forward, Basharat greets him with sharp boxing, and the Brit gets stung with a quick counter combination. Blackshear pressures his man with punches in bunches, forcing Basharat to fight off his back foot while throwing knees or heavy strikes. A failed Blackshear takedown try allows Basharat to latch on and push him back to the wall, slowing the wild Blackshear momentarily. Basharat succeeds with an inside trip to drag his foe to the canvas, and in half guard, he comfortably lets go with right hands. Blackshear grips that one wrist with both hands to sit up against the wire, but Basharat does not let him any higher before squeezing him back down flat on his back. Blackshear looks for his butterfly guard to sweep, and he succeeds in doing so by flipping Basharat over. Basharat does not settle here, exploding back to his feet instead, and Blackshear is quick to follow. Blackshear gives chase with a solid left hand, and he wings punches while Basharat sticks him with jabs. Blackshear releases a heavy low kick that buckles Basharat’s knee for a moment, and he considers a takedown that gets stuffed. Basharat gets caught with a knee and pushes forward to bowl Blackshear over, where he lands in the guard and looks to rack up more control time. “Ferocious Farid” lets go with powerful elbows until he extends too far, and Blackshear throws his legs up and locks a triangle choke up with an extended arm in a hurry. Basharat is in the danger zone immediately, but time is Blackshear’s enemy, as the brit is able to survive the awful position and hear the final bell ring before anything comes of it. Like the last fight, this one is ultra-close, and both men have an argument to get their respective hands raised.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (29-28 Basharat)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear (29-28 Basharat)
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Basharat (29-28 Basharat)

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Da'Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo is confident in Farid Basharat, praising his impressive striking, foot movement, and wrestling. He notes that Basharat times his takedowns perfectly and can keep the fight standing if needed. The only concern is that Basharat was dropped in a previous fight, but he recovered quickly. Angelo believes Basharat can win on the feet or with wrestling.

"I think Fareed's striking is stupid impressive and I think he's gonna win this fight I think it's pretty much that simple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady is confident in Farid Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills, good striking with head kicks and body kicks, and strong takedown defense. He believes Blackshear's path to victory is through grappling, but Basharat can dictate where the fight takes place and is the better striker. He predicts a decision win for Basharat.

"it's gonna be boss rap for me it's gonna be bossed her out to win this fight I'll say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody is high on Basharat, praising his well-rounded game and training with top guys. He thinks Blackshear's only path is takedowns, but Basharat's grappling defense and cardio will neutralize him. He expects a decision win or late TKO.

Farid Basharat by decision
"bashra I get it 450 no more meat on the bone but because we're parlaying stuff together it's like you know you'll get some value"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor picks Da'Mon Blackshear, believing his superior wrestling and scrambling will be the difference. He notes that Basharat is a willowy striker who often ends up on the ground, and Blackshear is a tough grappler who can outwork him there. Connor points out that Basharat's takedown defense and physicality are questionable, while Blackshear has proven durable against good grapplers.

"I'm gonna pick black sure."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Jacob is very high on Farid Basharat, believing he should keep the fight standing because Blackshear is most dangerous on the ground. He notes that Basharat has good top control and can avoid submissions. Jacob thinks this is a bad matchup for Blackshear and that Basharat will win.

"I'm very high and free this week no no no no disrespect to Blackshear I think he's very talented it's just this is a bad matchup for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Basharat is the better technical striker with good distance management and a jab. However, Blackshear is a seasoned veteran with experience against tough competition, and the line is too wide. Basharat should win by decision but it will be closer than the odds suggest.

"I think the line is a little bit wide here... I still think basharat wins I think he Jabs his way to a decision Victory here but I would not right off Damon Blackshear as quickly as the odds are …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Basharat, noting his volume and skill advantage. He thinks Blackshear has never been finished but Basharat's output should win a clear decision. He won't bet the -450 but likes Basharat by decision prop.

Farid Basharat by decision (around -115)
"Fareed basharat by decision in the prop market right now is minus 115 plus 100 plus 110 is like the best on market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, trusting his talent and crisp technique. He notes Blackshear is dangerous but has losses to lesser competition, and believes Basharat's skills will lead to a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 29-28.

"I'm gonna go with Fareed basharat here... I think he's gonna win this fight by 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane also picks Blackshear, though he is less confident. He agrees that Basharat's striking is not enough to keep the fight standing and that Blackshear's wrestling will be a problem. Zane notes that Basharat has shown some clever striking but tends to get taken down, and Blackshear is a strong scrambler. He thinks the odds are too wide and Blackshear has a good chance.

"I'll side with you. I I do think I mean Bachelorette... I'm willing to be tricked."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat, noting he is the better of the Basharat brothers and a well-rounded wrestler with solid striking. He thinks Farid will work on the outside, touch and go, and get takedowns. He warns that Vegas doesn't care about wrestling, so if Farid doesn't do anything with takedowns, it may not matter. He acknowledges Jean Matsumoto's potential but thinks his lack of defense is a problem.

"I think Fared wins this fight. I think Fared's just going to work on the outside, touch and go a little bit, get the takedowns, and I think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady picks Farid Basharat, calling him the better prospect. He notes that Matsumoto has poor takedown defense (53%) and has been taken down multiple times in past fights. Basharat is a good wrestler and grappler, and Brady expects him to take the fight to the ground and win a decision.

by decision
"I'm going Bosch here. I'm going to take Bosch to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody also picks Basharat, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Matsumoto's tendency to be taken down. He notes both fighters are decision-oriented, making the over a strong play. Cody expects Basharat to control the fight with takedowns and win a clear decision.

over 2.5 rounds, Farid Basharat by decision
"I'll be taking Basher up by decision at plus money before that is gone."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, praising Basharat's ability to solve problems and his technical wrestling. He notes that Matsumoto is a tough, indefatigable bully, but Basharat has the tools to handle him. He thinks Basharat's wrestling and fight IQ will be the difference, though Matsumoto's durability could make it a tough fight.

Same odds discussion.
"I have to pick Bashirat."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Lucrative James picks Farid Basharat to win by decision. He expects Basharat to employ a grappling-heavy game plan, using his elite cardio and takedown volume to control the fight. James notes that Matsumoto has been taken down multiple times in past fights and that Basharat's wrestling will be the key to victory.

"I think Fared extends his winning streak to 15. I think he goes 15 and0 with a decision win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Basharat, believing his overall game and grappling will be the difference. He notes Basharat's reach and height advantage, and his ability to mix in takedowns after striking. He expects Basharat to snipe Matsumoto from distance, then use control time and top damage to win on the scorecards. He acknowledges Matsumoto's striking could make it competitive but thinks Basharat's grappling edge is decisive.

"Official prediction here will be Basharat, just a better overall game. His grappling will be the difference maker, and I think that leads to Basharat winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul picks Farid Basharat, citing his high ring IQ and ability to stick to game plans. He notes Matsumoto's poor takedown defense and defensive striking. Paul expects Basharat to mix takedowns with striking and win a decision, recommending a prop on Basharat by decision.

Farid Basharat by decision
"Bosat sticks to the game plan like doesn't deter from it which is why he's 14-0."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

The host picks Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto. He notes Matsumoto's recent performances have been lackluster, while Basharat has size and physicality. He thinks Basharat's mix of striking and grappling will be too much, and he can bully Matsumoto against the cage and in scrambles.

"I'm going to go Farid Basharat. I like his mixing up of the striking and the grappling."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because of his impressive game planning and technical wrestling. He notes that Basharat has shown he can adapt to any opponent, using pressure boxing against Gutierrez, counter wrestling against Hugo, and wrestling against Lapelis. He thinks Basharat's technical wrestling will be too much for Matsumoto, who relies on scrambling and physicality.

Basharat opened at -400, currently -265; Matsumoto opened at +330, currently +225.
"I got to pick him."