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Age 28
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dennis Buzukja
4.21 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.82 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.63 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bogdan Grad
4.06 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
5.06 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
4.22 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Dennis Buzukja

No odds available

Bogdan Grad

No odds available

Dennis Buzukja - Fight History
SCHED vs Bogdan Grad
LOSS vs Márcio Barbosa
KO R1 1:20 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dennis Buzukja 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Márcio Barbosa 1 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dennis Buzukja 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Márcio Barbosa 1 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dennis Buzukja 5 of 13 38% 0 of 6 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Márcio Barbosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dennis Buzukja 5 of 13 38% 0 of 6 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Márcio Barbosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcio Barbosa vs. Dennis Buzukja
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-450); Buzukja (+350)

Round 1
The prelims wrap up with a featherweight affair pitting a struggling New Yorker in Buzukja (12-5, 1-3 UFC) against brick-fisted Brazilian Barbosa (17-2, 0-0 UFC) getting his sea legs on the largest stage possible. Before the fists fly, the featherweights are checked in by referee Herb Dean. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action.
Buzukja moves directly to the center of the cage to apply light pressure, pawing out with a front kick and a jab. Buzukja smacks the front leg with a kick as he pushes forward, rifling off a one-two after it. Barbosa responds when taking a hard body kick with an overhand right. Buzukja no-sells it and jabs the head and body back. Buzukja chips at the front leg when it is available to him, doubling up on his jab to keep Barbosa on the back foot.
As if Barbosa was just charging up the entire time without telling us, he walks forward confidently. Buzukja slings two punches at him, and he slips them and unloads with a consciousness-destroying left hand. Buzukja is out before his head clatters lifelessly off the canvas
, and Barbosa walks off raising his arms in the air knowing his work here is done. Dean races in just in case Buzukja needs to be protected, but Barbosa is not about to do any unnecessary damage. Bukuja eventually comes to, and he has to be told what happened because his short-term memory and parts of his third-grade education have just been forcefully ejected from his skull. With 15 career knockouts to his credit, “Ticoto” has authored all 15 of them in the first round. He may only know one speed, but it is borderline ludicrous.

The Official Result
Marcio Barbosa def. Dennis Buzukja R1 1:20 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Angelo picks Márcio Barbosa in his UFC debut, impressed by his power, pressure, and striking. He notes that Dennis Buzukja is a credentialed wrestler but doesn't wrestle enough, and if Barbosa has decent takedown defense, he should win. He thinks Barbosa could even find a finish.

"I love him in this spot. I think he could even find a finish. So I'm loving Marcio Barbosa in his UFC debut."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Big Brady is confident in Márcio Barbosa, praising his power and finishing ability. He notes Barbosa has 16 first-round KOs and compares him to Lerone Murphy. He criticizes Dennis Buzukja's hittability and sub-50% striking defense, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Barbosa to win this fight and win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Cody picks Dennis Buzukja as a live betting underdog. He notes that Barbosa is a one-round fighter with cardio issues and that Buzukja has improved during his time off. He suggests betting Buzukja live if he survives the first round.

"I'm going to take Bizookia as the PRP pick because it's super low confidence. But what I will leave you with is that just this is a live betting fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Barbosa is a good pickup for the UFC with a fun style. He adds that Barbosa is not completely reckless and comes in defensively responsible. Buzukja is a solid fighter who manages his pace well, but if Barbosa can't finish early, it could be a difficult test. Connor also notes that Barbosa only has one win outside the first round.

Same odds as Zane.
"Barbosa's a good pickup for the UFC, though."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Daniel is high on Barbosa's knockout power and believes Buzukja is hittable and lacks top-15 potential. He thinks Barbosa will finish Buzukja early, likely in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and a performance bonus.

"My official pick is Mario Barbosza to come out here, wing an overhand to a left hook, and get a first round knockout and a performance bonus in his UFC debut."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Dennis Buzukja

Buzukja is a value underdog due to his cardio, toughness, and ability to survive early rounds. Barbosa relies on first-round power against lower-level opponents and may fade. Buzukja has faced tougher UFC competition and shown he can go the distance. Even though Barbosa is more likely to win, Buzukja has at least a 35-40% chance, making the odds favorable.

Buzukja plus 3.5 at 3.80; over 1.5 rounds at 2.40
"I think Denis Buzukja is a really good bet in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

James picks Barbosa to win via round one knockout. He notes Barbosa's aggressive style and power, and that if he doesn't finish early, he tends to gas out. He expects Barbosa to overwhelm Buzukja quickly.

"Barbosa, round one knockout. My official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

The host expects Barbosa to win by knockout in the first round, sticking to his trend of finishing guys early. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds instead of the chalk on Barbosa, as it covers the possibility of Buzukja countering and putting Barbosa out. He notes that Buzukja is a Muay Thai specialist who won't be intimidated, but Barbosa's power should prevail.

under 1.5 rounds
"I expect Barbosa, if he is to win, to stick to his usual trend of finishing guys early. And I think and I will predict him to win in round one. But if you take that under one and a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Paul leans towards Barbosa but prefers the round 1 knockout prop. He acknowledges Barbosa's power but also his cardio issues. He suggests avoiding the moneyline and instead betting Barbosa by KO in round 1.

Barbosa round 1 knockout
"Um I feel like if you're going to bet this fight, you probably take a Mario Barbosa round one. I mean, his his knockout prop is minus 200, but I guess that gets you off of the minus 500."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Márcio Barbosa

Zane picks Barbosa because he is a powerful slugger who hits like a truck and comes in with his guard up. Buzukja is a choosy slugger who rarely knocks people out and has been knocked out or nearly knocked out when put on the back foot. Zane notes that Barbosa likes to get to the pocket and throw hard, and Buzukja has been vulnerable to that style, as seen against Jamal Emmers and Francis Marshall.

Barbosa opened at -250, now -500; Buzukja opened at +210, now +375. Zane notes Buzukja is a good survivor if Barbosa can't finish early.
"I just have to pick Barbosa"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Marshall 0 66 of 145 45% 76 of 156 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Dennis Buzukja 1 57 of 150 38% 82 of 175 1 of 6 16% 0 0 5:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Marshall 0 6 of 16 37% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dennis Buzukja 0 6 of 19 31% 25 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:56
2 Francis Marshall 0 30 of 52 57% 33 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dennis Buzukja 1 23 of 56 41% 28 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Francis Marshall 0 30 of 77 38% 32 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Dennis Buzukja 0 28 of 75 37% 29 of 76 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Marshall 66 of 145 45% 46 of 110 14 of 27 6 of 8 65 of 143 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 57 of 150 38% 53 of 144 2 of 4 2 of 2 53 of 144 3 of 4 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Marshall 6 of 16 37% 2 of 10 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Francis Marshall 30 of 52 57% 22 of 37 4 of 11 4 of 4 30 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 23 of 56 41% 21 of 53 1 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 52 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Francis Marshall 30 of 77 38% 22 of 63 7 of 12 1 of 2 29 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 28 of 75 37% 26 of 72 1 of 2 1 of 1 26 of 73 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buzukja (+116), Marshall (-136)

Round 1
Originally expecting to throw down with Danny Silva, Buzukja (12-4, 1-2 UFC) instead whips out his fire extinguisher to try to quell the flames of “Fire” Marshall (7-2, 1-2 UFC). With both men typically competing at featherweight, this shift to lightweight allowed them a chance to cut less weight, and it remains to be seen who that will benefit more. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to follow the competitors every step of the way, while putting up with no nonsense. The match opens with a fist bump. Marshall practically sprints forward, swinging his way to a takedown effort. Buzukja tries to counter him on the way in, but Marshall ducks and clasps his hands. Buzukja turns to the side to keep himself upright, sprawling his hips and hand-fighting to not let Marshall leverage him down. Marshall hangs on and laces his leg around Buzukja’s in an effort to trip him up, and Buzukja keeps his balance and kicks his leg free. Marshall lowers his man to a knee for a moment while staying on his back, and he forces Buzukja down again while imposing his weight as much as he can. Buzukja smacks him once as he posts off the floor, but Marshall clubs him with a few more powerful right hands from around the back. Marshall succeeds in tripping Buzukja up again, and his control time is high while his offense is largely limited. Buzukja spins out with about a minute left in the round, and he lands a low kick and a body kick while getting jabbed away. Marshall sticks him with a jab and a right hand, intercepting a kicking Buzukja. Buzukja does go for a calf kick, and they give off alternating jabs. Marshall flicks out a left, a right, and he pushes Buzukja to the fence once more. Buzukja spins out and is knocked to his seat with a right hand, and he climbs back up to absorb a one-two on the chin before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 2
Gloves are clapped together before they are traded, with Marshall leading off the round with swinging fists. Marshall decides against going for a takedown, instead loading up on shots concluding with a booming right that knocks Buzukja off his feet. Marshall climbs into top position, hooking his legs around Buzukja until Buzukja explodes to his feet. Marshall backs off, and he measures his way in and has his lead leg kicked. Marshall swings for the bleachers and misses the mark, and he counters a right hand to knock Buzukja down when Buzukja kicks. Marshall finds the home of his right hand again, stinging Buzukja, and he uses the moment to shove Buzukja to the fencing. Before they split, Marshall sneaks in a knee. Buzukja jabs the body with a push kick, and they trade punches. Marshall reaches the mark with a right and a scooping left, and he gets countered with a left up top and right to the body. Marshall is drawn into a slugfest, and a few Buzukja strikes get Marshall’s attention but he gets tagged with a power right hand. Marshall shoots for a takedown that is rebuffed, and Buzukja resets and kicks the front leg hard. Marshall darts forward with a heavy right hand, and Buzukja knocks him back with a power hook that busts open Marshall’s nose. Buzukja connects and gets countered with a right hand, allowing Marshall to tie him up and bully him to the wall. The right hand rips open a cut on the eyebrow of Buzukja, but he is able to muscle his way out of the clinch. Marshall lands a right and ducks away from a zooming lead left hook, and Buzukja fires a bazooka of a right hand back his way. Marshall takes three clean punches on the chin, and the round ends with his head getting snapped back courtesy of a mean left from Buzukja.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 3
The two lightweights clap hands together before engaging. Buzukja moves to the center of the cage, and he strikes out with a left hook. Marshall answers him with a flailing left and a big right, and Buzukja sees a subsequent punch and connects cleanly with a right hand. Buzukja lands a low kick to chain a left behind it, and Marshall pops him in the chops with a short but effective left hook. They clash together with simultaneous strikes, and Buzukja rings his bell with two punches. Marshall gives him right back with a power hook, and both men are busted up again and leaking. Marshall slams a shin on the front leg of his opponent, and they stand in the pocket and slug it out. Buzukja gets the better of one exchange, and Marshall meets him in the middle to make sure he gives it right back. They both nail one another with all power, and Buzukja’s lunging left leads to a takedown shot. Marshall turns him around and gets off a single knee before splitting. Buzukja walks forward behind his jab, and he ducks a right hand and wipes his eye. Buzukja scores a one-two and a follow-up left to snap the head back, and he counters a lunging strike with a right hand around the guard. Buzukja times a right hand as Marshall advances, and he loads up with big, winging punches that Marshall dodges. Marshall steps in with a right hand, and he dances away from the counters. Three punches from Marshall find the target, and they both clip one another with power. Buzukja goes to the liver and Marshall makes him pay with a right hand, and the latter shoots for a single and lifts Buzukja in the air while taking him from one side of the cage to the other. Marshall drags a leg out but does not ground him, hanging on until the bloody battle concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja (29-28 Marshall)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)

The Official Result
Francis Marshall def. Dennis Buzukja via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Angelo picks Danny Silva (note: transcript says Danny Silva but fight card says Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja; likely a mix-up, but he refers to Dennis Buzukja as the opponent). He calls Silva a 'very low confidence pick' because Buzukja doesn't wrestle as much as he should. He notes that Silva is a solid striker with clean technique and movement, but gets hit a lot. He mentions that the AI on the website has a knack for picking underdogs and suggests checking it.

"Danny is going to be a very low confidence pick but this is a fight where I will tell you to check out the artificial intelligence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody picks Silva because of his high volume and wrestling ability. He notes that Buzukja is a generalist who isn't particularly good at anything and has poor cardio. He thinks Silva can outwork Buzukja on the feet or take him down. He also mentions that Silva's performance on Contender Series showed he can throw 200 significant strikes and mix in takedowns.

Danny Silva by decision
"I think that Danny Silva should be able to take him down... I'm going to go with Danny Silva by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Daniel Vreeland picks Dennis Buzukja for the upset, citing Marshall taking the fight on short notice and Buzukja's better competition and volume. He admits both fighters are average and not confident, but thinks Buzukja can edge a decision if he keeps it standing.

"I'm gonna go bazooka for the upset you know I'm not confident at all"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Brevin picks Buzukja, citing his resilience after overcoming illness, his confidence after his last win, and his experience against tough competition like Sean Woodson. He believes Buzukja is back to his true form. JP disagrees, picking Silva by KO, noting Buzukja's two UFC losses to good competition and Silva's better striking. JP fades Brevin on this one.

"I like that confidence I think it it's very telling on when guys have tough training camps versus when they're back to their normal selves I think he's going to get this one done give me Dennis bazooka on Saturday"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Paul agrees with Cody, liking Silva's volume and ability to mix in wrestling. He thinks Silva is fairly priced at -240 and should win. He notes that Buzukja has looked poor in the UFC and doesn't have a clear path to victory.

"I like basically all the exact same thoughts... I think he's very very fair at least at his current price tag of minus 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

The MMA Guru picks Dennis Buzukja with low confidence. He notes Buzukja trains at a good gym with Aljamain Sterling and has a win over Connor Matthews. He criticizes Francis Marshall's losses and gym, suggesting Marshall's camp is built around him while Buzukja gets better training partners. He seems unsure but leans toward Buzukja.

"I'll go with bazooka maybe trust he's from a bit of a better gym"
TKO (punches) R3 0:22 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dennis Buzukja 1 83 of 201 41% 84 of 202 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Connor Matthews 0 60 of 138 43% 62 of 140 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dennis Buzukja 0 38 of 85 44% 38 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Connor Matthews 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dennis Buzukja 0 37 of 98 37% 38 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Connor Matthews 0 36 of 76 47% 38 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
3 Dennis Buzukja 1 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Connor Matthews 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dennis Buzukja 83 of 201 41% 44 of 145 18 of 34 21 of 22 77 of 186 2 of 3 4 of 12
Connor Matthews 60 of 138 43% 37 of 101 14 of 27 9 of 10 57 of 134 1 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dennis Buzukja 38 of 85 44% 17 of 56 10 of 17 11 of 12 37 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
Connor Matthews 24 of 58 41% 13 of 38 5 of 14 6 of 6 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dennis Buzukja 37 of 98 37% 21 of 73 7 of 16 9 of 9 36 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Connor Matthews 36 of 76 47% 24 of 59 9 of 13 3 of 4 33 of 72 1 of 1 2 of 3
3 Dennis Buzukja 8 of 18 44% 6 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12
Connor Matthews 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dennis Buzukja vs. Connor Matthews
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buzukja (-115), Matthews (-115)

Round 1
Buzukja is in orthodox, Matthews in southpaw as they engage under the supervision of referee Keith Peterson. Both men freely switch between stances, however, as they reach out with long kicks and one-twos. Matthews catches Buzukja coming in with a left hand. Buzukja lands a hard calf kick to the left leg of Matthews, then another. Matthews has switched to orthodox stance. Buzukja catches him with a nice left jab. Buzukja backs Matthews up with a hand one-two. A Matthews kick lands on the cup of Buzukja, and Peterson calls time. Buzukja proclaims himself ready to go after just a few seconds, and they go back to work. Under a minute to go in the round and Buzukja’s jab is dictating the pace of the fight. Buzukja goes upstairs with a right high kick that bounces off the guard of Matthews. Buzukja lands a low kick and a one-two at the clapper, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja

Round 2
Buzukja scores first with a jab, then a counter left hook. Matthews backs his man up to the fence, but Buzukja slides out the side and they return to the center of the Octagon. Matthews is game, coming forward, but Buzukja’s combination punching is really giving him trouble. Buzukja punctuates his punches with a series of calf kicks. Matthews continues to work to back Buzukja to the cage. Buzukja gives ground willingly, but is catching Matthews with almost everything he throws. Buzukja steps in with a big overhand right that lands cleanly, then a kick and another trio of punches. Buzukja steps in but Matthews slides behind, takes his back standing and hauls him to the canvas. With under a minute to work, Matthews lands a series of blows from the back, before Buzukja escapes to his feet. They flurry at close range and Matthews shoots a double-leg right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buzukja

Round 3
Buzukja clips Matthews with a right cross and left hook, dropping him. Matthews covers up as Buzukja swarms with hammer fists.
With Matthews not offering any real defense, referee Peterson steps in for the stoppage.

The Official Result
Dennis Buzukja def. Connor Matthews R3 0:22 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Angelo leans Dennis Buzukja, praising his wrestling and striking. He notes Connor Matthews is durable and can snatch submissions in scrambles. He is hesitant because Buzukja has back-to-back UFC losses and hasn't proven himself yet. He holds off on betting.

"Dennis is going to be the pick but until we see an actual UFC win out of him I'm going to be holding on to my money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Connor Matthews

Cody picks Matthews due to Buzukja's low confidence, poor recent performances, and lack of power. He thinks Matthews' wrestling and volume will be enough, though he acknowledges the fight is close and the crowd could influence judges.

"I'm gonna take Matthews"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Connor Matthews

Daniel Vreeland picks Connor Matthews, citing his better output and stats in the UFC. He notes Buzukja has low output and hasn't impressed, while Matthews has shown more volume and takedowns. He admits low confidence but thinks the dog has value.

"I'm gonna go Conor Matthews but not with a lot of confidence"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Buzukja is more talented all-around with better experience. Matthews is physical but has a questionable gas tank and struggles if takedowns are stuffed. Buzukja can counter effectively and mix in wrestling to wear on Matthews. The minus 125-130 line is reasonable. Prediction: Buzukja by decision.

"give me bookia and I think he wins this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Connor Matthews

Paul tails Cody, citing Buzukja's struggles and Matthews' hunger. He notes Matthews' takedown numbers and believes he can outwork Buzukja, though he admits the fight is a toss-up.

"I'll tail you on the dogger pass there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Connor Matthews

The host picks Connor Matthews, believing he is better than Dennis Buzukja. He liked Matthews' performance on the Contender Series, where he grappled hard and established dominant positions. He criticizes Buzukja's previous losses, saying he looked out of his depth. He thinks Matthews' grappling will be a factor and that he is closer to his prime.

"I do think Conor Matthews is better than Dennis bazooka which is a great name by the way for fighting but um I do think he's better I think Conor Matthews is way better than him"
LOSS vs Jamall Emmers
TKO (punches) R1 0:49 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamall Emmers 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dennis Buzukja 1 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamall Emmers 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dennis Buzukja 1 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamall Emmers 3 of 7 42% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 14 of 20 70% 8 of 12 2 of 4 4 of 4 10 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamall Emmers 3 of 7 42% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 14 of 20 70% 8 of 12 2 of 4 4 of 4 10 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers (147: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Emmers (-258), Buzukja (+210)

Round 1
There’s not much like a live sporting event at Madison Square Garden. The UFC makes its annual pilgrimage to the world-famous arena with a show that took several huge hits but came back with a vengeance. The main card alone promises plenty of action, but before then, eight prelims play out on the various ESPN and streaming networks out there. The fights commence with a match scheduled at featherweight only to get a slight tweak on weigh-in day. Coming in one pound heavy, Emmers (19-7, 2-3 UFC) will hope that surrendering a percentage of purse is the only thing he loses today against New York’s own Buzukja (11-3, 0-1 UFC). Buzukja offers his hand outstretched, and the heavy fighter choose not to accept it under the nonsense-free gaze of referee Keith Peterson. It’s on with the show. Buzukja sticks out a few jabs early, and Emmers is on him with multiple low kicks. Emmers charges forward, getting in a right hand and slipping back from the counter. A second blitz from Emmers gets through the defense of his opponent, and Buzukja defends himself but gets cracked with a right hand in the midst of a flurry. “Pretty Boy” again dips back to evade the strikes coming back, and
he lines up a straight right hand down the pipe that smashes square into Buzukja’s chin. The New Yorker collapses in a heap, and Emmers pounces immediately. Emmers batters Buzukja with a number of mighty hammerfists, and as Buzukja turns to his side, Peterson steps in to call a halt to the action.
The victor immediately calls for “50Gs,” but due to his weight miss, a post-fight bonus is all but off the table. Nevertheless, Emmers earns his first finish in the Octagon while becoming the first fighter to ever stop “The Great” as a pro.
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The Official Result
Jamall Emmers def. Dennis Buzukja R1 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Angelo leans Emmers despite acknowledging Buzukja's potential. He cites Emmers' finishing ability and power, but worries about Emmers' bad luck with judges. He plans to avoid betting on the moneyline and may bet on Buzukja's takedown props.

Buzukja over 0.5 takedowns (if line is half a takedown)
"I'm going to slight lean Jamal emers... insanely low confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers by decision, but expresses low trust at the price. He believes Emmers is better everywhere except fight IQ and heart: better striker, better wrestler, better grappler. He notes Emmers has a history of losing fights he should win due to bad game plans. He thinks Buzukja's game plan of pushing opponents to the cage and attempting takedowns won't work against Emmers.

Emmers by decision
"Give me Emmers to win this fight, should be a pretty clean decision but you know Jamall Emmers is not really a trustworthy fighter at this price tag."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Cody picks Emmers, citing Buzukja's poor performances and lack of UFC-level skills. He notes Emmers' wrestling, size, and experience. He thinks Emmers will dominate wherever the fight goes and calls him a good parlay piece.

"I got emers here just basically strictly off of the fact it's like I don't really rate bookia at this level whatsoever"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Emmers has all the skill set advantages over Buzukja except fight IQ. If he utilizes his grappling, it will be the path of least resistance. Expects Emmers to outwork Buzukja over 15 minutes and win by decision, but cautions about fight IQ. Notes the line has moved from -275 to -250 and believes it's generous for Emmers.

"I believe that's pretty generous here for a guy like Jamal EMZ who I believe has all the skill set advantages over bookia with the exception of fight IQ"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Paul picks Emmers, detailing Buzukja's struggles and management's careful matchmaking. He notes Emmers' wrestling and submission game, and thinks Buzukja's poor takedown defense and cardio will be exploited. He expects Emmers to win comfortably.

"emers to me is like I like he because it's the first fight on the card... I think he's very talented"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The MMA Guru picks Jamall Emmers, calling him underrated. He notes that Emmers took Giga Chikadze to a split decision and had a close fight with Jack Jenkins. He thinks Emmers has matured as a veteran and will beat Buzukja if he stays composed, predicting a win 8 times out of 10.

"I'm going with Jamal emers I think he's very underrated Jamal emers and I think he always has been throughout his entire career"
LOSS vs Sean Woodson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Woodson 0 71 of 126 56% 163 of 229 4 of 5 80% 0 0 5:52
Dennis Buzukja 0 42 of 116 36% 46 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Woodson 0 35 of 63 55% 72 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Dennis Buzukja 0 15 of 49 30% 16 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
2 Sean Woodson 0 13 of 26 50% 55 of 69 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:14
Dennis Buzukja 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
3 Sean Woodson 0 23 of 37 62% 36 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Dennis Buzukja 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Woodson 71 of 126 56% 36 of 77 18 of 32 17 of 17 61 of 113 8 of 11 2 of 2
Dennis Buzukja 42 of 116 36% 24 of 85 11 of 17 7 of 14 32 of 96 5 of 8 5 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Woodson 35 of 63 55% 15 of 37 5 of 11 15 of 15 32 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 15 of 49 30% 8 of 34 3 of 7 4 of 8 15 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sean Woodson 13 of 26 50% 4 of 14 8 of 11 1 of 1 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dennis Buzukja 10 of 30 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 12
3 Sean Woodson 23 of 37 62% 17 of 26 5 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 31 2 of 4 2 of 2
Dennis Buzukja 17 of 37 45% 8 of 25 7 of 9 2 of 3 12 of 30 5 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dennis Buzukja (146.5: Missed Weight) vs. Sean Woodson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Woodson (-175), Buzukja (+145)

Round 1
Justin Brown will officiate this matchup. Buzukja is the fourth proposed opponent for Woodson. Buzukja jabs forward agains the lanky Woodson. Woodson probes with a front kick and leg kick. Another leg kick spins Buzukja around. Buzukja lands a big right and follows with a combination. He pressures Woodson against the fence and ties his man up. Woodson spins him around and breaks free. They trade punches before Woodson slides away. Woodson goes back to working the low kicks. Buzukja stalks his man, but Woodson uses his array of kicks and long punches well. Woodson kicks the body, then lands a jab. Woodson stops Buzukja with a stiff jab. Buzukja follows a body kick with a right hand and they clinch against the fence. Woodson turns his foe around and drops for a takedown. Buzukja denies the shot and reverses for a takedown attempt of his own. Buzukja brings a knee to the midsection before Woodson frees himself. Buzukja pressures with a low kick and a right to the body. Woodson responds with a rapid fire combination to the body. Now Woodson is finding a rhythm, and he lands another multi-punch combination near the fence before Buzukja shifts gears for a takedown try. Woodson breaks free. They trade before the horn, with a body shot from Buzukja being the most notable offense.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Woodson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Woodson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Woodson

Round 2
Buzukja pressures with punches but can’t find the range. Woodson with a front kick and a jab. Woodson lands a clean 1-2 moments later. Buzukja lands a right near the fence then changes levels. Woodson defends with his back to the cage, then spins the Longo-weidman product around. A pair of knees and a flurry of body shots hurts Buzukja, and Woodson stays on the assault before grounding his adversary. Woodson punches the ribs and hunts for a choke with Buzukja in a crouched position. Woodson switches from an anaconda to a guillotine choke, but thus far Buzukja is defending. Woodson continues to alternate chokes, but Buzukja is wise to it and works his way up. Woodson drags him back down immediately. Buzukja defends with a kimura, but Woodson spins around and hunts for a kimura of his own in north-south. Buzukja frees himself but he finds himself ensnared in a front headlock. Woodson transitions to the back, but he falls to his back, which allows Buzukja to tee off with a salvo of punches. Woodson returns to his feet and urges his opponent onward. Buzukja attacks again before the horn, but nothing substantial lands.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Woodson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Woodson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Woodson

Round 3
Back at range, Woodson sticks a jab and a stiff combination. Buzukja moves forward and eats a left hand. Woodson lands a combination to the body and briefly gets a takedown. Buzukja scrambles up and drives Woodson into the fence. Woodson deftly transitions to Buzukja’s back, but he can’t fully take back control. Woodson backs away from the clinch and throws a jab in the center of the Octagon. Buzukja lands a body shot but eats a hook in return. Buzukja misses on some punches and looks for a takedown enar the fence. Woodson reverses and drags his foe down. He laces up one leg and makes Buzukja carry his weight. Buzukja gets to a knee, then stands. Woodson snaps him back down with a front headlock. Buzukja defends against potential chokes on all fours, then stands. Woodson punishes him with a knee as they stand and then a clean right lands. Buzukja is still moving forward despite absorbing plenty of punishment. A front kick by Woodson lands clean on his foe’s chin. Woodson steps in and lands a nice knee to the chin, then dodges a Buzukja offering before the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Woodson (30-27 Woodson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Woodson (30-27 Woodson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Woodson (30-27 Woodson)

The Official Result
Sean Woodson def. Dennis Buzukja via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Cody picks Buzukja as an underdog, citing Woodson's poor takedown defense, questionable chin, and weight cut issues. He notes Buzukja's training at Longo/Weidman and his power. He believes Woodson is prime for an upset due to multiple opponent changes and potential fatigue.

"I'm gonna take down his bazuke"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

Daniel Levi picks Sean Woodson, citing his size (6'2", 80-inch reach) and striking advantages. He notes that Woodson is a matchup problem for most featherweights and has sneaky submissions. Levi is not fully confident because the matchup was announced last minute and he hasn't done deep research. He acknowledges Buzukja's solid all-around game and wrestling potential, but leans toward Woodson's physical attributes.

No specific prop bet. Notes that the line moved from -150 to -190.
"I'll go Sean Woodson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Sean Woodson

James acknowledges Buzukja is on short notice and facing a tough stylistic matchup against Woodson's length. However, he doesn't rate Woodson highly, citing limited offense and a chin issue. He thinks Woodson will probably win but wouldn't bet him due to Buzukja's takedown threat. He picks Woodson on the moneyline but is not confident.

"I am going to pick Sean Woodson on the money line... but it's not really a fight that I'm majorly interested in."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Woodson has durability questions after his last fight, and Buzukja's aggressive striking could give him problems. However, Buzukja had a tough weight cut, missing weight by half a pound, which is a big question mark. Despite that, I'm not a fan of Woodson anymore and think Buzukja can land big shots and win by decision.

"I am going to take bazookya and bizukia by decision but uh you know low confidence especially with that uh weight cut that he had"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dennis Buzukja

Paul also picks Buzukja, citing Woodson's vulnerabilities and the short-notice advantage for Buzukja. He notes Woodson's history of being taken down and his poor durability. However, he is not confident due to Buzukja's own short notice and low-level competition.

"I'll pick bazookya for the upset but I don't know if I'm going to be able to pull the trigger"
Bogdan Grad - Fight History
SCHED vs Dennis Buzukja
LOSS vs Luke Riley
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)

Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Muhammadjon Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Naimov (-230), Grad (+190)

Round 1
What was once a stadium-drawing attraction has become old hat for Tajikistan’s Naimov (12-3, 4-1 UFC), who is already taking his sixth walk to the Octagon since debuting in the middle of 2023. The man known as “Hillman” will take one of the few other Austrian talents on the roster in the form of Grad (15-2, 1-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this featherweight contest is referee Marc Goddard, who stands back to let the fighters come together and touch ‘em up. Grad is fired up and jittery, missing with a front kick and slapping the front leg with his shin. Naimov responds with his own low kick and sways out of the way of an overhand right. Grad reaches him with a rear low kick, and he lands a second as Naimov is changing stances. Grad drops his hands and engages, kicking his man in the side and getting tagged with a right hand over the top. Grad just misses a spinning wheel kick effort, and the crowd starts chanting for Naimov. Naimov says two can play that game and zings Grad with his own wheel kick, shaking Grad up badly. Grad musters up every bit of his willpower to rush forward, still wobbled, and tackle the Tajik fighter to the mat. Naimov gets back to his feet but eats an elbow in the process, and he breaks out. Naimov strings together a combination ending with an elbow, and Grad is tough as nails as he rushes forward. Naimov catches him on the way forward with a left hand, and he hops back to dodge a wheel kick. Naimov counters with a back fist, and as he rushes forward, Grad clips him with a punch that knocks his mouthguard out. With Grad pushing Naimov to the fence, Goddard replaces the fighter’s mouthpiece without needing to break the action up. The two fighters jockey for position, and Naimov drives a knee up the middle and eats an elbow right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov

Round 2
The fighters tap glove before getting after it, where they trade high kicks as Grad roars at his foe. Grad whiffs on a jumping kick, and he swipes a left hand behind the ear that appears to destabilize his adversary. Naimov backs off, avoiding a wheel kick and tripping himself up on the outer gate area. Grad marches him down, trying another spin but settling down with a body kick that pounds his man in the side. They kick at the same time, and Grad nods at him and rips unloads with a left hand around the guard. Naimov pays him back with interest in the form of a one-two, and he nearly bites on a faked takedown effort. Grad spins with a kick that misses, setting him up for a double-leg takedown try. Grad takes Naimov from behind as he leans him against the wall, slugging him in the side of the head once before Naimov turns himself around. Grad drops down low for a takedown, and he is shut down for it. Naimov elbows to break off, and he spins with a back kick that lands on Grad’s hip. Grad walks forward to deliver a kick on the inside of the lead leg, and he backs off to dodge the head kick but is not out of range from a one-two that tags him. Naimov circles around until settling down, as Grad looks for a rushing up-elbow and shoots for a takedown. Naimov latches onto the neck with a guillotine choke, only for Grad to switch to the other side and laugh off the submission. Grad goes after the double, and he lands it with five seconds left. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 3
Grad is fired up to start off the round, rifling off kicks from both legs. Naimov spins with a back elbow that clips the side of the head, and his spinning wheel kick stuns Grad but does not put him down. Grade gathers his thoughts and shoots for a double, ultimately putting Naimov down to the ground as he redoubles his effort. The Austrian gets both hooks in, and Naimov stands up even with Grad on his back. Naimov grabs hold of Grad’s foot to spin him around, and he lowers himself down to the mat to establish top position. Grad throws his legs up in pursuit of a triangle choke, and Naimov shoves the legs over to shut it down. Grad complains to Goddard about something, and Goddard asks them for more activity as Naimov is in a holding pattern. Grad sits up for a moment, and Goddard stands them up with 90 seconds to spare. Grad marches his man down, digs a left to the liver and shoots for a double. When stopped, Grad goes high with a clacking elbow. Grad hangs on tight and changes levels, kneeing Naimov in the gut but not able to keep him there. Naimov splits with 30 seconds left, and he says hello against with a spinning wheel kick. Grad greets him back with a head kick that brushes the beard, and he considers a spin but bails on it. Grad wants a brawl, and Naimov will not oblige as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)

The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Bogdan Grad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Alexander (148.5: Missed Weight) vs. Bogdan Grad

Round 1
Featherweights are next to the stage, as Alexander (8-4, 1-2 UFC) collides with Grad (14-2, 0-0 UFC) at 145 pounds. Kerry Hatley serves as the third man in the cage. Grad immediately pushes forward and walks into a few punches and leg kicks. He shoots on the hips, then settles into the clinch. Alexander turns him into the cage, and they jockey for position. They separate. Grad presses forward. Alexander narrowly misses on a flying knee. Overhand right from Grad, followed by a short left hook. He threatens with a single-leg and uses it to sneak behind Alexander. Grad feeds the Brazilian knees to the legs. Elbows from Alexander, who counters a takedown into top position. Ground-and-pound ensues. Alexander now hovering above his counterpart. Grad kicks at the knees from the butt-scoot position. He scrambles to his feet and secures a double-leg takedown. Alexander sweeps and again stands above his opponent, kicking at the legs. A minute to go. Grad stands. Multi-punch combos from Alexander. Alexander clips Grad with an elbow on the way in, shrugs off a takedown attempt and scrambles into a position from which he can strike.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alexander

Round 2
Grad charges forward, and they exchange leg kicks. Alexander circles off the cage. Powerful leg kick from Alexander sits down Grad. Sharp one-two from the Brazilian, then another. Alexander snaps back Grad’s head with an uppercut. Not going well for Grad. Alexander cutting loose with two-, three- and four-punch bursts. Grad counters a leg kick into a takedown and sets up in half guard, then progresses briefly to full mount. Alexander scrambles. Grad settles back in mount and gets his ground-and-pound in gear. Alexander reclaims half guard, but the tide seems to have turned, at least for now. Elbows and hammerfists from Grad.
Back to full mount. Alexander fading here. Crushing elbow from Grad and another. Punches fall in bunches, with Hatley hovering overhead. More unanswered punches from Grad, and the veteran referee intervenes
.

The Official Result
Bogdan Grad def. Lucas Alexander—TKO (Punches) 4:22 R2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"