Career Averages - Aleksandar Rakić
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
Aleksandar Rakić - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 1 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 1 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Murzakanov (-118), Rakic (-102)
Round 1
The main card of one of the presumably final pay-per-views for the organization kicks off with a light heavyweight eliminator, although the elimination could be one’s job depending on the result. Having lost his last three, “Rocket” Rakic (14-5, 6-4 UFC) needs to record his first triumph since 2021. On a slow-moving rocket blasting towards him is Russia’s Murzakanov (15-0, 5-0 UFC), three years the elder but never having lost as a professional. This tale of two tides will be overseen by referee Rich Mitchell, quite aware of the implications this outing may have on the light heavyweight division.
Rakic quickly lets loose a range-finding low kick, and he skims the side of his opponent when lifting his leg higher. Rakic hammers the upper chest with a kick, and he ducks away from two looping hooks. Rakic prods at the front leg with his shin, and he scores another heavy body kick that Murzakanov partially leaned into. Rakic kicks up the middle and then hits the front leg, and he changes things up for a double-leg entry and bullies the Russian to the fencing. Murzakanov defends the first effort with his back to the wall, and he starts taking knees to the thigh while he looks off at the clock that reads three minutes remaining. Murzakanov pushes off and separates, and he lances a trio of punches down the middle at his foe. Rakic replies with a right hand to the waist, and Murzakanov gives him one back to think about. Rakic kicks the body, then the lead leg, and those two open up a single-leg entry.
Murzakanov times a counter to roll Rakic over, but this results in an uncomfortable position for both men so they abandon it and start back over on the feet. Murzakanov sits down on a short right hand, and it catches Rakic’s chin perfectly and separates him from his senses right as Rakic was rushing forward to engage. The Austrian hits the floor and turns over to his side to shell up, seemingly totally out of it and done for the day. Murzakanov seems almost surprised, and he rains down a few punches to punctuate the performance and keep his undefeated record that way. Mitchell waves the fight off, and in the blink of an eye the two went from trading blows to lights out. The Russian has landed his fifth knockout as a UFC light heavyweight, and less than a dozen men hold more in promotional history—Chuck Liddell’s nine in the modern era still leads the pack.
The Official Result
Azamat Murzakanov def. Aleksandar Rakic R1 3:11 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo leans toward Azamat Murzakanov despite acknowledging Rakic's reach and technical striking. He notes Murzakanov has knockdowns in all six UFC fights and is powerful, but also small for the division. Angelo thinks Rakic is too low-volume and used to losing, and he might sprinkle a small bet on Murzakanov if the odds widen.
Big Brady leans toward Aleksandar Rakić, despite Murzakanov's undefeated record. He notes Rakić has faced elite competition (former champions) and has a significant size advantage (4-inch height, 7.5-inch reach). Brady expects Rakić's superior cardio and leg kicks to be decisive as Murzakanov slows down in fights. He predicts a close decision win for Rakić, though he hates picking against Murzakanov.
Cody picks Azamat Murzakanov despite the size disadvantage, citing his undefeated record and knockout power. He notes that Rakić is on a three-fight losing streak and may have confidence issues, while Murzakanov finds a way to win. Cody acknowledges that Rakić is world-class and will have moments, but believes Murzakanov's power and finishing ability will prevail, though he expects a close fight.
Connor picks Rakić, arguing that Murzakanov's level of competition has been low and his size disadvantage will be too much. He believes Rakić's reach and kicking game will keep Murzakanov at bay, and that Murzakanov's low output will cost him rounds. Connor thinks this is a step too far for Murzakanov.
Daniel Vreeland questions Rakić's confidence and durability, noting his tendency to fade and his recent losses. He believes Murzakanov's pressure, southpaw power, and ability to close distance will overwhelm Rakić. He predicts Murzakanov will walk Rakić down, get into punching range, and knock him out. He acknowledges Murzakanov's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early.
Lucrative James picks Aleksandar Rakić, but hesitantly. He cites Rakić's experience against top competition (Jan Błachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev) and his size advantage, which could make his head kicks effective. He notes Murzakanov's power and explosiveness but questions his cardio and level of competition. He believes Rakić can win the minutes and land kicks from the outside, but acknowledges Murzakanov's danger.
The host believes Rakić can stay away from Murzakanov's power, chip away with calf kicks, and mix in grappling. He thinks Rakić's size and strength will lead to a knockout.
Paul also picks Murzakanov but is hesitant, noting the size difference and Rakić's speed. He plans to wait for weigh-ins to get a better price, as Murzakanov may drift to plus money. Paul acknowledges that Murzakanov's cardio is a concern, but believes his power and the Abu Dhabi crowd support give him an edge.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić by decision, but admits he is hesitant. He notes that Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated and has KO power, but Rakić has a significant reach advantage and has trained with Jon Jones. He believes Rakić's low kicks and range management will be key, and that Murzakanov's shorter frame may struggle to land. He references Rakić's close fight with Magomed Ankalaev and his performance against Jiri Prochazka before getting injured. He expects a 29-28 decision, possibly with a scare in the third round.
Zane picks Murzakanov, comparing him to a wolverine who will not accept losing. He believes Murzakanov will absorb early damage from Rakić's kicks but then storm forward and steal rounds with crushing offense. Zane notes Rakić's tendency to fall apart under pressure and thinks Murzakanov's aggression will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 55 of 114 | 48% | 75 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 53 of 117 | 45% | 59 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 55 of 114 | 48% | 20 of 72 | 22 of 29 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 105 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 53 of 117 | 45% | 10 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 34 of 40 | 50 of 111 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 45 | 48% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 17 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 23 of 50 | 46% | 8 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 30 | 43% | 5 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 29 | 41% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-345), Rakic (+275)
Round 1
Austria has dual representation on the lineup, a rarity among UFC cards let alone ones that take place in the Middle East and not Europe. Russian title challenger Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1 NC; 10-1-1, 1 NC UFC) will try to grind, smash and press towards another crack at gold, but standing in his way is a recovered Rakic (14-4, 6-3 UFC). While Rakic is riding the first losing streak of his career, and has not won in over three years, he still serves as a solid test that Ankalaev has not already passed at the depleted light heavyweight ranks. Joining them in the cage will be referee “Shaolin” Vitor Ribeiro, who gets things started as the combatants decide against touching gloves. Ankalaev opens up wildly, hurling a huge left hand, only to slow down when Rakic fires a head kick at him. Ankalaev responds with a body kick, and they trade kicks to varied targets. Rakic comes up short with a right hand, and they hand-fight in alternating stances. Body kicks land with thumps on one another, and Rakic doubles up on it and tries to catch a low kick. Ankalaev digs another kick to the ribs, and Ribeiro asks for the fighters to close their fists. They don’t. Rakic chains a right hand into a head kick, and he scoots away when Ankalaev bears down on him. Ankalaev reaches his target with a straight left hand, and Rakic sits down on an inside low kick to retaliate. Ankalaev put a few fists on the midsection, keeping his guard up to block the inevitable head kick. Rakic scores a low kick and is punched in the face for his effort, and he times a head kick that nearly splits the guard. Ankalaev goes after a body kick after he leans back to dodge a punch, and Rakic chips away at the lead leg effectively. Ankalaev stalks him down, protecting his face when Rakic punches and kicks his way. Rakic kicks the front leg on the inside and outside, and Ribeiro keeps telling the fighters to close their hands to no avail. Ankalaev gets countered with a right hand over the top, and he eats a jab after landing his own left. Rakic beats on the guard with his shin, and he whiffs on a haymaker as Ankalaev comes up close. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 2
Rakic picks up right where he left off, feeding Ankalaev a steady diet of leg kicks. Ankalaev crashes the pocket and turns to smack Rakic in the face with a clever up-elbow, and Rakic wears it well. Both men whiff punches, and Ankalaev’s head kick grazes the beard. Rakic reaches out with a right hand, and he jabs the body with the ball of his foot. Rakic splits the guard with a solid right, and he leans back to bash Ankalaev in the face with an intercepting left. Ankalaev reaches his target with punches to the head and body, and he ends as labored combination with a body kick. Ankalaev jabs his way in, but a left to the body is his best blow, as Rakic keeps a solid poker face but might be hurt. Rakic backs off and measures with distant strikes, and the crowd works into a lather in support of the Russian, who is landing cleaner. Ankalaev digs a left to the body and fires off a head kick that is blocked just in time, and he strings a few punches together to get Rakic’s attention. Rakic snaps out several more low kicks, reddening and welting his opponent’s front leg, but not seemingly compromising him. Ankalaev’s forward movement results in a clinch, and he pushes the Austrian to the wall and holds on. They both swing fists at the break but miss the mark, and Ankalaev rushes after him and tags his foe with a straight left. Ankalaev stabs the torso with a left hand, and he has a left hook brush past the top of Rakic’s dome. Rakic kicks high to get blocked, and he looks for a right hand on the inside as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 3
The fighters get going immediately, trading hands and feet without fear of reprisal. Ankalaev lunges with a left hand, snapping the head back and whiffing on a follow-up right. High kicks from both men bounce off the other’s guard, and Rakic backs off and spins with a back fist as Ankalaev is after him. Ankalaev slams his foot in the liver of his opponent, and Rakic comes up hitting air on the counter. As Rakic lands a right hand, sweat flies, and Ankalaev responds with a left that makes more fly off his opponent. Rakic digs for a body shot and leans back to avoid a huge hook, and Ankalaev walks him down and busts him in the chops with a scooping left hook. Rakic backs off and absorbs a second cleanly, and he gets on his bike and strafes to the side. Rakic suddenly shoots for a single, and Ankalaev hops back to the wall to keep his balance and set his limb down. Rakic transitions to a single on the other side, and he succeeds in leaning against Ankalaev but can do little else with his wrestling. Ankalaev turns his man about in the clinch, working the body with punches and knees until Rakic surges into action and spins him about. Ankalaev plants a solid knee on the torso, and he measures another as Rakic leans over. Ankalaev puts knees on the body as Rakic gains enough space to dirty box, and the Russian holds him tight until the slow-paced contest comes to a merciful conclusion—with neither looking like a strong threat to claim the throne of Alex Pereira.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev def. Aleksandar Rakic via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.
Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.
Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.
Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.
Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.
Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.
The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.
Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.
Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 69 of 118 | 58% | 69 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 58 of 109 | 53% | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 36 of 69 | 52% | 36 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 53 of 80 | 66% | 53 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 69 of 118 | 58% | 56 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 45 of 87 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 24 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 58 of 109 | 53% | 34 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 30 | 56 of 107 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 16 of 38 | 42% | 10 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 36 of 69 | 52% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 23 | 35 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 53 of 80 | 66% | 46 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 24 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 40 | 55% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-120), Prochazka (+100)
Round 1
In any other UFC event, this sure-fire light heavyweight collision would draw main card status or potentially serve as the headliner. Due to just how stacked UFC 300 is—along with the decision to throw a 5-0 hot prospect above this bout—it will instead serve as the final prelim. Former champ Prochazka (29-4-1, 3-1 UFC) gets back in the saddle in a classic matchup of Czech Republic vs. Austria when he faces Rakic (14-3, 6-2 UFC). High finish rates for both men mean that referee Herb Dean will likely be involved before time expires, while the judges might be able to sit back and just enjoy the carnage waiting to unfold. Ever the sportsmen, they try to bump fists and miss, before all hell breaks loose. They both reach long strikes at one another, with Rakic landing a few jabs and low kicks. Prochazka darts in with an uppercut, and Rakic tries to keep him backed off with jabs and right hands. Rakic comes up short with a heavy right, and Prochazka nods to Dean that he is fine after finger scraped his eye. Prochazka dances around with his hands down, absorbing a right hand and several more low kicks. Prochazka scores one punch, and Rakic stands him up with two punches and dings him with a calf kick. Welting has already began to develop just 90 seconds in on Prochazka’s lead leg, and he pays it no mind and switches stances back and forth to attack. Rakic times a stance switch to chop down the calf, and Prochazka shrugs them off as he powers forward. Rakic hammers the lead leg with a kick, and Prochazka’s balance nearly gives way. Rakic scores a left hand when Prochazka recklessly attacks to open up a cut on the corner of the eye, as Prochazka struggles to put weight on his lead leg. Rakic does not slow his methodical breakdown with his leg kick, and he shifts out of the way when Prochazka advances. Prochazka eats two more low kicks, and he tries to give two more back. When he throws out a body kick, Rakic beans him with a right hand over the top. Rakic opens up with an overhand right, getting the former champ’s attention but not making him back away one moment. Prochazka crashes forward and misses, and Rakic slides to the side. Rakic slips in a right hand, and Prochazka dips and ducks forward to plant a front kick on the abdomen and a right hand up top. Prochazka drives a knee to the jaw, and Rakic unloads with a counter right. Prochazka powers through with a huge right hand, hurting “Rocket,” but Rakic stings him back before Prochazka can pour it on. Rakic lines up a one-two down the pipe, and Prochazka walks through it and clinches up until they reach the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 2
The light heavyweights bump fists, and Rakic immediately picks up where he left off by chewing up the former champ’s lead leg. The kicks force a stance switch, and Prochazka absorbs the kicks on both sides to fluster him. Rakic connects with right hands after jab, and he stands Prochazka up with a right hand. Prochazka fights through it and launches a head kick that bounces off the raised guard, and he takes a calf kick that disrupts him again. Prochazka kicks up high again, and he grazes the top of the head and follows it with power punches. Prochazka connects with his heavy strikes, and Rakic scampers away to reset and launch his own head kick that lands under Prochazka’s arm. Prochazka measures and blasts Rakic in the face with his shin, and the two strikes proceed to bang it out with no regard for their defenses. Prochazka unloads with another head kick, and he slugs it out until he gets two punches through. Rakic stumbles from one side of the cage to the other, and Prochazka knees him hard in the head. Rakic fires back with everything he has, and Prochazka bites down on his mouthpiece and batters Rakic with anything he has to strike with.
Prochazka pushes Rakic over and clobbers him with elbows, and Rakic turns over to his stomach and turtles up. “BJP” unleashes a fury of punches, and Dean watches closely until Rakic is stuck and just taking unnecessary damage at that point.
Dean calls a halt to the fight, capping off a furious comeback from the former champion. The two immediately squash any beef they carried into their meeting, and they hug it out.
The Official Result
Jiri Prochazka def. Aleksandar Rakic R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Jiri Prochazka as the underdog, citing his relentless pressure and chaos. He notes Rakic is the more technical striker but has been out for two years and doesn't like brawls. He likes the +110 odds as juicy but may not bet due to conservatism.
Cody is confused why Rakić is a slight favorite. He lists many red flags for Rakić: a near 2-year layoff, coming off a leg injury, low volume, and unimpressive performances even before the injury. In contrast, Procházka is a former champion with dynamic striking, power, and a samurai mentality. Cody notes Procházka has a fifth-round submission win over Glover Teixeira and can wrestle if needed. He believes Procházka's pressure and power will overwhelm Rakić, who tends to avoid fighting. Cody picks Procházka as the underdog.
Connor picks Procházka because his willingness to create chaos and take risks is valuable at light heavyweight. He contrasts Procházka's creative, reckless style with Rakić's neurotically technical, restrained approach. Connor argues that Procházka's ability to scramble and make fights uncontrollable will overcome Rakić's grinding, as Rakić has not faced someone with Procházka's level of unpredictability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jiří Procházka as a slight underdog, citing his chaotic, unpredictable style and ability to force opponents into brawls. He acknowledges Rakić's athleticism and leg kicks but believes Procházka's offensive juggernaut approach and durability will lead to a finish. Vreeland notes that Procházka has been knocked out but expects him to make it wild and catch Rakić.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says he is excited to see how Jiří Procházka bounces back from his loss. He does not provide a prediction.
Rakić will drag the fight to the ground where he can have success from top position. Procházka has struggled with opponents on top. Rakić will chain wrestling attempts and keep Procházka on his back, grinding out a decision win.
Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Procházka. He notes that if it turns into an absolute fight, Procházka's pace and volume will be too much for Rakić, as seen in Procházka's fight with Dominick Reyes where he landed 77 significant strikes before a early third-round finish. Paul acknowledges both fighters have red flags (layoffs, injuries), but Rakić has been on the shelf longer and has bigger question marks. He emphasizes Procházka's samurai mentality and believes he will bring the fight to Rakić.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić to defeat Jiří Procházka by targeting his lead leg with low kicks. He notes Procházka's weakness against leg kicks and that Rakić is comfortable backpedaling. He also mentions Rakić may mix in takedowns and predicts a finish or decision.
Zane picks Rakić despite hating his fighting style. He believes Rakić will land leg kicks, take Procházka down, and grind out a win over three rounds. He notes Procházka's wildness could turn the fight, but Rakić's durability and grinding approach should prevail. Zane is hedging because he wants Procházka to win but feels Rakić is the safer bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)
Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 49 of 97 | 50% | 61 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 36 of 89 | 40% | 50 of 103 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 49 of 97 | 50% | 10 of 41 | 23 of 33 | 16 of 23 | 35 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 36 of 89 | 40% | 8 of 47 | 13 of 16 | 15 of 26 | 29 of 82 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 15 of 27 | 55% | 1 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 14 of 30 | 46% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 35 | 42% | 3 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 23 of 39 | 58% | 6 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 24 | 29% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Officially the heaviest bout of the night at a solid 412 pounds, two light heavyweights who vastly prefer the knockout come to blows in the main card opener. Brazil’s Santos (21-8, 13-7 UFC) will be attempting to get back to title contention and defuse “Rocket” Rakic (13-2, 5-1 UFC) on the way back up. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Herb Dean, as fists and feet will soon be flying in all directions following the glove touch. Rakic slowly and patiently advances, sticking out his jab early and avoiding a counter right hook. Santos pushes out a front kick and lifts his leg to avoid a leg kick, and rushes in to attack. Rakic deflects the strikes and he takes a kick to the knee, but there is no major damage done. Both men score leg kicks, and Santos winds up on a big left hand. Rakic is able to avoid the bomb and throw a kick back, and Santos returns fire with one of his own. Rakic slings a head kick that the Brazilian is barely able to block in time. Santos delivers a big body kick and has one glance off his torso as he backs away. Santos once more scores a heavy body kick, and he takes a kick square on the knee that nearly makes it buckle. “Marreta” throws a hammer of a right hand that crashes into Rakic’s jaw, but the Austrian wears it well and kicks the leg on his way out. Rakic pressures forward and slaps a leg kick off the mark, and Santos replies with a kick. Santos swings with a massive left hand, and when it misses, he barely ducks a head kick that brushes past his cleanly shaven head. Santos whiffs on a massive punch to the body, but he does kick the body to make Rakic exhale sharply. Neither man is willing to pull the trigger on anything of note, and they trade leg kicks and body kicks. Santos jumps and misses with a flying knee, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Rakic resumes his pressure to make Santos back away to the fence. Rakic sticks Santos with a low kick and a jab, and the Brazilian tries and fails to counter effectively. Santos comes up short on a superman punch, and he looses a head kick that Rakic easily blocks. Rakic slowly advances and throws a long left jab and a leg kick that makes Santos turn about. Santos responds with his own leg kick, but the two are largely throwing single strikes and not engaging often. Rakic chops at the leg, and Santos charges at him but hits air as he has his lead leg hacked at once more. Santos pushes into a clinch, and Rakic easily reverses him and lands a few knees on the inside. The Brazilian gives him a few back, as they stall out against the cage wall. Santos breaks and scores on the end of a left hook, and when he backs off, he checks a kick to make Rakic recoil it sharply. Rakic kicks the chest, and Santos gives Rakic a heavy reply with a slapping kick to the knee. Santos charges but pulls back before throwing a strike, and Rakic plants his left hand on the chin to no effect. Santos jumps in with a switch kick, but it gets blocked and he is countered with a stiff left hand. Rakic nails Santos with a flying knee, and the two clinch up to end the slow round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
There is a final glove touch to open the last round, and Rakic starts things off with a head kick that is easily blocked. Santos punches the thigh, and “Rocket” starts rocketing out several stiff jabs to keep Santos at bay. The Brazilian walks through them to charge in for a takedown, and Rakic stuffs it without breaking a sweat and turns Santos around into the wire. Santos fights out of the clinch but cannot land any of merit on the break, and he takes a jab to score a leg kick. Both men kick at one another’s knee, and Santos kicks the leg once more to draw a smile from his opponent. When Rakic rushes in, Santos belts him with a spinning back kick to the body, and Rakic keeps a solid poker face by not showing that it hurt. Rakic pokes and prods at Santos with a few jabs, one-twos and low kicks. Santos loads up on a head kick, and Rakic sees it coming and pays it no mind. Santos narrowly misses a blazing fast left hook, and Rakic tries to fire one back but also comes up short. Santos slams his shin into the body, and Rakic stays patient on the outside with sporadic jabs. The jab does enough to slow an advancing Santos, and Rakic makes Santos bounce off the cage wall with a kick. Rakic ducks an overhand left to shoot in for a takedown, and Santos defends with several elbows to the side of the head. Rakic does not like these strikes, and he bails on the attempt to put himself in a better position away from those damaging shots. Rakic grinds on Santos against the fence, mashing his man into the chain-link as precious seconds tick off the clock. The Brazilian finally pushes off, and he takes a hard leg kick on the inside. Santos comes back with one, and the two swing and miss until the tepid fight mercifully comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)
The Official Result
Aleksandar Rakic def. Thiago Santos via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.
Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.
Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 40 of 53 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 44 of 57 | 77% | 141 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 12:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 39 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:22 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 61 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:31 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 41 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakić | 9 of 21 | 42% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 |
| Anthony Smith | 44 of 57 | 77% | 16 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 21 | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 17 of 21 | 80% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 11 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Aleksandar Rakić | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Anthony Smith | 9 of 12 | 75% | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Aleksandar Rakić | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 18 of 24 | 75% | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We have reached the headliner a little earlier than expected thanks to the coronavirus, and this late-notice marquee matchup is scheduled for just three rounds at the light heavyweight division. Former title challenger Smith (33-15, 8-5 UFC) tries to put “Rocket” Rakic (12-2, 4-1 UFC) on his first career losing streak, and referee Herb Dean will be holding on tight for what could be an all-action fight – these two have only gone the distance seven times in 62 combined fights. They touch gloves, and it’s on! Like so many fights earlier tonight, the first strike of the bout is a leg kick – from Rakic. Smith replies in kind. Rakic loads up with one that lands with a resounding slap. Rakic takes one back, but he delivers a body kick to Smith’s midsection. They keep trading leg kicks early, and both men are putting everything they have into these thudding kicks. Rakic goes up high with a kick this time, and the two start trading with punches now. They kick legs at the same time, and Rakic cracks the lead leg and makes Smith’s knee buckle. Two more take Smith’s legs out from beneath him, and Rakic climbs on top to start pounding on Smith’s body. Smith pushes his way up and tries to take take the Austrian down, but as Smith ties him up, Rakic stands up. Smith leaps on to his back to serve as a backpack, but Rakic shucks him off and uses a guillotine choke to frame up. He bowls Smith over and hops on top, where he gets off a couple of punches as Smith clings to him to tie him up. Smith uses a butterfly guard to try to kick Rakic off, but opts to use a rubber guard and flirts with an omoplata before Rakic stands up out of it. The Austrian comes back down as Smith keeps a high guard, and Smith lifts his left leg up but abandons it when there is nothing doing. Smith looks to Dean for a standup, but it does not come as Rakic shoulder checks him a couple times. Smith swings hard with a left hand while is trapped against the cage, and Rakic smiles and lands a few punches until the horn blares. Any concerns about Smith’s leg health are instantly abated as he strides back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 2
They touch gloves and Rakic instantly fires at that leg. Smith closes in and gets kneed in the face to back off. Rakic bestows to him a few body kicks, although Smith stings him back with a few punches. Smith crashes forward to pursue a body lock takedown, and Rakic reverses the position to throw Smith down and land on top in guard. “Rocket” stays busy on top with punches, and fights off a triangle choke attempt from Smith. Although the former title challenger attempts a few elbows while he has his back flat on the floor, Rakic’s strikes are more frequent and likely more impactful. Rakic keeps grinding him and is well out submission danger as precious seconds tick off the clock for Smith. “Lionheart” tries to push away with his toes in the fence, and Dean admonishes him for it, halting Smith from using the technique to turn around or attempt a submission. Smith manages to sit up as Rakic pounds on him, and there is no way up to his feet for Smith until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
Rakic re-introduces himself in the round with a devastating leg kick, and Smith is already compromised. Rakic cracks him with a head kick and a few punches, and Smith is wobbling around the cage on baby deer legs. “Rocket” blasts in and knees him in the face, battering Smith against the fence. Smith tries to tie him up and take him down, and Rakic muscles him over and plants Smith on his back again. Dean asks for Rakic to work, as Rakic is just occasionally landing left hands on top while Smith is trapped in an odd position against the wall and ground. Rakic lands a heavy punch when Smith gets to his knees, and he knees Smith in the body a couple times. The Austrian keeps his full body weight pressed on Smith as he traps the former title challenger in a grounded position. Dean reminds Rakic that he needs to work, so Rakic obliges with a slow but steady diet of knees to the thigh to keep from standing them up. Smith powers up to a crouch, but Rakic tosses him back down with minimal effort. For the umpteenth time, Dean recommends that Rakic keep working, and he lands a few short punches and knees to little effect. Smith kicks him off with 10 seconds to go, and Rakic walks away while the clock is still ticking left with his hands in the air; unfortunately for Smith, he is too fatigued to do anything about it. Rakic turns back to him, and shrugs him off as he knows Smith cannot reach him before the disappointing round – and fight – ends. If it's any consolation, there is another UFC card next week.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)
The Official Result
Aleksandar Rakic def. Anthony Smith via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Rakić but thinks the line should be closer. He notes Rakić's superior striking volume and takedown defense, and expects him to win the first round strongly. He is concerned about Smith coming back too soon after a brutal beating, but acknowledges Smith's toughness and ability to take a shot. He predicts a decision win for Rakić.
Daniel Levi leans with Rakić, citing that Rakić is fresher, has more room for improvement, and will likely hit Smith with hard shots to the body and chin. He acknowledges Smith's experience and ability to come back late if Rakić fades, but believes the timing is right for Rakić. He also notes that Rakić was dropped by Devin Clark twice, which raises durability concerns, but still favors him.
Rakić is a strong wrestler with a top game that can crush Smith. Smith is good but not great at anything; Rakić should mix striking and grappling to control the fight. I expect a cautious approach leading to a decision win for Rakić, though the -275 line is a bit steep.
The host picks Aleksandar Rakić because the fight is only three rounds. He believes Rakić will outrange Smith with kicks and win the first two rounds comfortably, then survive the third. He notes Smith's wide stance leaves him open to leg kicks and body kicks, and that Smith has taken recent damage. He thinks if it were five rounds, Smith would win, but in three rounds Rakić's striking advantage prevails.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 63 of 144 | 43% | 118 of 199 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 75 of 147 | 51% | 87 of 162 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 19 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 24 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 30 of 65 | 46% | 57 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 35 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 63 of 144 | 43% | 28 of 105 | 14 of 18 | 21 of 21 | 47 of 122 | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 75 of 147 | 51% | 49 of 116 | 16 of 18 | 10 of 13 | 57 of 126 | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 12 of 39 | 30% | 4 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 23 of 47 | 48% | 12 of 35 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 21 of 40 | 52% | 6 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 39 | 56% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 18 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 30 of 65 | 46% | 18 of 52 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 55 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 30 of 61 | 49% | 25 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 52 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Rakic comes out with power punches immediately before transitioning to a guillotine. He puts on the squeeze for a few seconds before Oezdemir escapes. They continue to jockey for position against the fence. Both men swing wildly on the break. A hard body kick lands for Rakic, but Oezdemir pressures, swinging heavy leather. Nothing connects. A short left lands for Oezdemir. Oezdemir moves in but he is countered by Rakic. Rakic goes low for a single leg, dodges a punch and trips the Swiss fighter to the canvas. Rakic maintains a body lock as Oezdemir returns to his feet. Rakic presses Oezdmir into the fence and absorbs some elbows to the side of the head. Oezdemir lands a knee and they separate with heavy punches. Rakic lands an uppercut-left hook combination. The light heavyweights trade low kicks. A right from Rakic counters an Oezdemir flying knee and the round ends. 10-9 Rakic.
Round 2
Oezdemir with a hard low kick to begin. Rakic answers with one of his own. A right hand snaps Oezdemir’s head back. Rakic has some unusual swelling below the knee on his left leg as a result of the low kicks. Rakic throws a left high kick that lands on the chest of his opponent. Raick with a glancing right hand and then he tries for a single leg, attacking with punches as Oezdemir attempts to escape. Rakic presses Oezdemir into the fence and Oezdemir lands some elbows to the side of the head. Rakic lands a short right hook on the break. Rakic catches a low kick, but he can’t do anything with it as Oezdemir demonstrates good balance. Rakic jabs and avoids the follow-up offering from Oezdemir. Oezdemir kicks at the leg of Rakic again. Rakic with an inside leg kick. Oezdemir steps in with a punch to the body. Oezdemir taunts Rakic with hands open, but Rakic doesn’t engage in a brawl at the end of the frame. 10-9 Rakic.
Round 3
Rakic lands an uppercut in an exchange. Rakic counters with his back to the fence and then secures a body lock. The Austrian presses Oezdemir into the cage. The light heavyweights trade big punches on the break. Another low kick from Oezdemir. Rakic lands a left jab. A right uppercut momentarily backs up Oezdemir. Rakic tries for a takedown but Oezdemir shrugs him off. A short left hook is clean for Rakic. Rakic jabs to the body and then throws a right hand. Oezdemir ties up his foe and lands an uppercut and knee in close. Rakic lands a right and Oezdemir nods him on. Rakic blocks a high kick. Rakic changes levels but Oezdemir defends the takedown, landing elbows with his back to the fence. Rakic hangs on as time winds dow. Oezdemir lands some more short elbows and they separate before the horn. 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic).
The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Aleksandar Rakic via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 47 of 110 | 42% | 85 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 49 of 81 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 51 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 47 of 110 | 42% | 22 of 77 | 20 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 96 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 30 of 59 | 50% | 24 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 19 of 50 | 38% | 8 of 35 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 20 of 38 | 52% | 9 of 26 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fortune (-120); Tybura (+100)
Round 1
There is one heavyweight card on the billing, and it happens now. At the tender age of 40, Polish all-around fighter Tybura (27-10, 14-9 UFC) has slowed to a degree, but wins in two of three suggest he is still not out of it yet. He welcomes former Bellator big man Fortune (17-3, 2 NC; 0-0 UFC) to the organization, who will have one Lally brother of Arizona Combat Sports fame in his corner. Keeping tabs on the action and hoping it will not end up in the hands of the judges will be referee Herb Dean, who would prefer not to be paid by the hour in this affair. The late replacement Fortune offers a glove touch that is accepted by “Tybur,” and away they go.
Fortune bounces lightly around on his heels while Tybura slowly works his way towards him, and he parries a front kick. After offering little offense, Fortune springs into action with a textbook double-leg takedown that dumps Tybura on his back. The newcomer starts jackhammering Tybura with his free right hand, pounding on the veteran until Tybura turns to defend against the strikes. Tybura gets to a knee while Fortune keeps clubbing him, and Fortune leans on him to smother him and prevent him from standing.
“Tybur” stands back up with the wall behind him, and he thwarts the first mat return attempt. Fortune grinds on his opponent, with Tybura framing off his face with an elbow that sets up a knee on the chin of Fortune. The debutant ignores the boos to keep squeezing Tybura against the cage, and Tybura slides another elbow off his face and knees Fortune in the stomach twice. Tybura pushes off Fortune’s face to break off. He lumbers forward slowly to offer a labored one-two, and Fortune strikes him back with a right hand. Tybura tosses up a kick that collides with the arm, and he swarms forward with a trio of punches. Fortune’s right hand is countered with a right up top, and he ends the round with a front kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Round 2
Tybura introduces himself again with kicks, and he wings a right hand over the top as Fortune circles away. Fortune gathers a head of steam to hurl two punches up top, and Tybura bounds off them and keeps his push kick going. Tybura hits nothing but air with two offered punches, with volume exceptionally low between the two as they take turns slowly engaging. Tybura hurls a right hand and eats a right on the jaw on the way in, and they clinch up with Tybura scoring knees and a check hook to break off. Fortune scores another hard right hand when Tybura is about to engage, and he ignores a low kick but cannot avoid two front kicks. The second slides down into the cup, and Dean calls time as the boos rain down. Fortune only takes a couple seconds before saying he is good to go, and he re-engages with a power right hand. The newcomer is well out of way when Tybura strikes at him, and he beats “Tybur” to the punch with flying fists.
Fortune’s overhand right scores practically any time Tybura meanders forward to attack, as he appears to be giving a tell that Fortune has picked up on. Tybura intercepts an advancing Fortune with a chopping leg kick, and it takes the ACS fighter a moment to get back up. Tybura slings a right hand and avoids the counter he knows is coming. Fortune puts a right hand down the pipe when Tybura kicks his lead leg, and he dances away from slow punches but cannot evade the thumping calf kick. Fortune takes a flush body kick after landing a jab, and he splits the guard with a fierce two-punch flurry. Tybura keeps walking face-first into punches, and he does not bat an eye and has to chase the fleet of foot Fortune around until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Round 3
Fortune starts off the final round pushing for a takedown, and he bullies the UFC vet against the cage but cannot get him down. Tybura presses his hand of Fortune’s face to stop the attempt from going anywhere, and he manages to break free. Tybura boxes his way forward, but Fortune is too slick and does not absorb much. Tybura crashes into him, and the two clinch up. Fortune digs punches to the body until Tybura separates again, and it is the Polish fighter who strikes with a front kick. Tybura pops Fortune in the chops with a right hand, and he goes again to the body with a kick. Fortune whiffs on an overhand right, and Tybura presses him to the cage wall. Fortune turns him around with relative ease, and Tybura strikes with a knee but gets elbows hard. Tybura frames off with his elbow to get away.
The front kick of “Tybur” intercepts Fortune, who swings heavily at him. Fortune connects with a one-two and is promptly driven back with power punches back his direction. Tybura attacks aggressively, and Fortune tackles him to the floor. Tybura stands, and he is quickly mat returned. Tybura rushes to put his side to the cage wall, and Fortune clubs him with right hands as Tybura stands up. The two battle for underhooks, and Tybura thumps Fortune up with short punches and knees. Tybura elbows his man in the face from up close, and Fortune responds with knees to the stomach. Tybura punches his way back into the clinch, and he tags Fortune with a huge overhand right. Tybura goes headhunting, and Fortune strikes the body. Tybura, who appears to be the fresher of the two, clubs Fortune with a few punches, and Fortune gathers a head of steam and swings back as they reach the final horn, exhausted and drenched in sweat.
The initial scores are announced as 30-27, 29-28 and 29-28 all in favor of Tybura, and the crowd drowns out the building with boos. There is some confusion, and Fortune angrily departs the cage with his team as they believed he did enough. Bruce Buffer is called back to the Octagon, where he apologizes and re-announces the winner via unanimous decision as Fortune. Sometimes these things happen in MMA.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
The Official Result
Tyrell Fortune def. Marcin Tybura via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.
Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.
Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.
Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.
Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.
The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.
Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Delija (-115); Tybura (+100)
Round 1
It’s heavyweight morbin’ time. A rematch a decade in the making is here, as perennial contender Tybura (27-9, 14-8 UFC) meets former PFL tourney champ Delija (25-6, 0-0 UFC) for the second time. Their first encounter ended with Delija shattering his leg from after getting his kick checked, and revenge may be on his mind. The lone heavyweight contest today will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and with no bad blood between them, the large men bump their equally large fists together.
Delija wants to make an immediate statement, walking Tybura down and busting him in the chops. As he drives Tybura to the wall, he makes a mistake by getting too close, and Tybura wraps him up. The Polish fighter turns Delija around on the fencing and starts to grind on him, and it does not take long for the fans to turn on him. Tybura does not remotely care, as he drops down in pursuit of a double. Tybura goes to his knees to get the fight down, and Delija keeps his back to the cage and stays upright. Delija turns him around and breaks free. Tybura punches his way in to try to clinch, and he bails on it and puts a front kick on the chest. In a brief exchange, Delija catches Tybura at the end of a right hand, backing off the UFC vet. Delija gives chase, stringing three punches together and punctuating the combo with a vicious right hand that separates Tybura from his senses and puts him down on one knee against the wall.
Smelling blood in the water, “Walking Trouble” gives Tybura plenty of trouble as he clubs his man with three destructive right hands. Tybura may be out cold or is hanging on for dear life, and Goddard says enough is enough and gets between the heavy hitters.
Talk about a way to make your promotional debut, as he is now a top-10 heavyweight by crushing a ranked adversary in the opening frame. The victor drops to his knees and lets out an outpouring of emotion, while teammate Tom Aspinall proudly cheers for his new training partner getting the job done in a huge way.
The Official Result
Ante Delija def. Marcin Tybura R1 2:03 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.
Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.
Connor picks Tybura, emphasizing that Delija is a 'quadruple A' fighter who will win if the opponent is bad, but Tybura is not bad. He notes that Tybura's grappling and awkward striking will test Delija, who tends to back up and corner himself. Connor also points out that Delija's lack of intimidation factor means Tybura can impose his game.
The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.
The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.
Zane picks Tybura, noting that Delija is a 'quadruple A' heavyweight who wins against bad opponents but struggles against competent ones. He believes Tybura's awkward striking, wrestling, and durability will be too much for Delija, who is not a special athlete. Zane also mentions that Tybura has a history of beating run-of-the-mill heavyweights and that Delija's defensive style will not intimidate Tybura.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 61 of 155 | 39% | 64 of 158 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 60 of 145 | 41% | 102 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 41 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 33 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 37 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 61 of 155 | 39% | 28 of 110 | 29 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 60 of 151 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 60 of 145 | 41% | 47 of 130 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 49 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 21 of 56 | 37% | 4 of 34 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 23 of 45 | 51% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 33 of 79 | 41% | 20 of 61 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 22 of 62 | 35% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Parkin (-118), Tybura (-102)
Round 1
Marc Goddard gets his first assignment of the card for this heavyweight scrap. Parkin is working behind inside low kicks early. Tybura finds the range on a body kick. A left lands for Tybura. The Pole connects with a lead uppercut in an exchange. Parkin with another low kick, but Tybura answers with a combination and a front kick. Tybura backs his man up with an overhand left. A body kick for Tybura and Parkin responds with a leg kick. Parkin counters a low kick with a two-punch combo. Parkin lands a bodykick. Tybura ducks under a punch and secures a body lock, shoving Parkin into the cage. Parkin frees himself quickly. Tybura lands a left to the body. Parkin wades into the clinch and he pushes the Pole into the fence. Parkin backs off, alnding a lead hok. Tybura answers with a front kick down the middle. Tybura punches his way into the clinch and ends the round with a powerful takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Tybura charges forward, landing a left hook and a front kick. The Pole tries to initiate the clinch, but Parkin shoves him away and sticks a jab. A left gets through for Tybura. Parkin catches a kick and shoves Tybura to the mat. Parkin follows his foe to the mat and moves to side control. The Brit looks to trap Tybura in a crucifix, but Tybura escapes. Parkin is in half guard, working to create openings from above. Parkin maintains control and then begins with a barrage of right hands from top position. The crowd gets excited, sensing a finish, but Tybura is blocking a lot of these. Parkin maintains top position, but Tybura briefly threatens with a heel hook. Parkin shucks it off and dives back on top. Tybura scrambles up with about 1:45 to go in the round. A lead left hand gets through for Parkin, and he follows up with a straight right. Parkin forces the clinch against the fence and he drops down and dumps Tybura to the mat. Park is back in half guard. Tybura builds up to his knees and eventually stands. Tybura turns Parkin into the fence but isn’t able to do anything of note before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Round 3
An uppercut gets through right away for Tybura. Tybura throws a left to the body. Both men look labored to start the round. It’s Tybura who connects with a left hook. Tybura counters a leg kick with a two punch combination. Tybura ducks and lands an overhand right. Another solid left for the Pole. Tybura gets the better of an exchange and he pumps his jab immediately after. Parkin finds the range on a solid right. Tybura lunges forward, throwing offnese and keeping Parkin on his heels. Parkin with another clean right hand. Tybura goes body-head. Parkin with a slow leg kick and Tybura lands a left as the Brit moves straight back. They clinch with about 30 seconds left and Tybura is looking for a single leg. Parkin stands on one leg and pops Tybura in the face with a series of rights before the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Mick Parkin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.
Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.
Connor picks Parkin based on a gut feeling that Parkin's jab and technical boxing will make Tybura uncomfortable and lead to a knockout. He notes Parkin is patient and not overly aggressive, which might prevent Tybura from setting up takedowns. However, Connor admits he has no faith in Parkin's ground game and calls it a gut pick.
The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.
The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.
Zane picks Tybura as the smart pick, noting Tybura always gets hurt early but then finds a takedown and suffocates opponents with back control. He has no faith in Parkin's ground game. However, Zane acknowledges Parkin might sleep Tybura before grappling becomes a factor, calling it a gut pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 35 of 49 | 71% | 153 of 187 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 7:14 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 66 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 87 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 35 of 49 | 71% | 33 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 32 of 44 | 72% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 27 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)
Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.
Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.
Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.
Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.
Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.
The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.
Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.
Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)
Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.
Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.
Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.
Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.
The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.
Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.
The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-450), Tybura (+350)
Round 1
With this final upcoming matchup lifting it above or lowering the record below for U.K.-based fighters .500 tonight, the organization hands things over to the returning Aspinall (12-3, 5-1 UFC) in the featured attraction. Just one day removed from a full year since his blowout knee injury in this same building, the Liverpudlian optimistically seeks to get back on track of his path towards championship contention. Standing in his way will be Polish grappler and tough out Tybura (24-7, 11-6 UFC), who would like nothing more than to spoil the party at night’s end. When the dust settles, one of these heavyweights will be in the top five in the UFC, while the other may tumble down the rankings. Referee Marc Goddard draws the final assignment of the night, and the large gentlemen bump their large fists together to signal they are ready to get after it. Tybura swings hard to engage, and Aspinall dodges and weaves. The Brit fires off a big head kick, and Tybura blocks it and still stumbles back from the sheer force of the blow. Tybura lumbers forward to engage, and Aspinall is the quicker, looser man who is able to land better in the fierce exchange. Tybura comes up missing the mark on a pair of big punches, and
Aspinall steps forward, brimming with confidence, to deliver a crushing elbow on the chin. Tybura is stunned, frozen in time from the ferocious blow, and Aspinall revs up and plants a one-two on the chin. Tybura topples to his back, barely still conscious, and Aspinall is not about to let him off the hook as the crowd goes wild. Bulldozing the Polish fighter with a short barrage of ground-and-pound as he lords over the fallen Tybura, Aspinall finishes the job with hammerfists to draw intervention from Goddard.
The audience is elated at the victorious home country heavyweight, who will end the night for the UK at 6-5. This is a massive comeback for Aspinall, who knows exactly what his next move is: he plans on attending UFC Paris in September to challenge the victor of the Ciryl Gane-Sergey Spivak headliner, and then he has his sights set on champion Jon Jones. The crowd laps it up, and roars with approval as it imagines the belt wrapping around the waist of the triumphant Aspinall. When that showdown in September comes, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Marcin Tybura R1 1:13 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.
Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.
James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.
The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.
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