Career Averages - Uroš Medić
Career Averages - Daniel Rodriguez
Uroš Medić - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Medic takes the center of the cage to start. Neal probes with a double jab. Neal moves in and lands another jab. Meanwhile, Medic uses front kicks to try to control distance. Neal kicks the body. After a little bit of a feeling out process, the welterweights decide to plant their feet and trade. Both Medic and Uros are swinging with bad intentions, but the most devastating blow by far comes from “The Doctor,”
who clips his opponent with a left hook to the temple. Neal is unconscious as he collapses to the canvas.
This one is a wrap, and Medic has his third consecutive first-round finish in the Octagon.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Geoff Neal via KO (Punch) R1 1:19
Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.
Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.
Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.
The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.
James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.
Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.
Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.
Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Medic (-180); Salikhov (+150)
Round 1
If rankings and relevant pairings do not litter the lineup, at least the matchmakers have lined up a few bangers. At 41, Salikhov (22-5, 9-4 UFC) may be looking as good as ever, with three wins in a row including two knockouts making his twilight years quite something. He will have to contend with brick-fisted Serb Medic (11-3, 5-3 UFC), who has come from Alaska to train down in California at Kings MMA. The two welterweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Kerry Hatley, who has already donned his proverbial hard hat, fully cognizant that this one could be a doozey. There is a touch of gloves to open things up.
Medic tries early to swat away Salikhov’s staging left hand, stomping his way forward to threaten with strikes to the lead knee. Both men lash out with blows at the same time, and they need some time before re-engaging. They kick simultaneously, with Medic putting a scare in the Dagestan native by going upstairs. Medic tosses one out with his other leg, wrapping it around the back of the Russian’s melon.
Salikhov has to back off, and Medic rifles off a straight left hand that puts Salikhov on his seat. Salikhov tries to scoot around to grab hold of the leg of “The Doctor,” but Medic slams him in the side of the head with his angry Alaskan fist a few times until Salikhov shells up.
Hatley sees that Salikhov has physically surrendered at that point and steps in to save the Russian from any further harm. That is two knockouts in a row for Medic right around one minute, as he iced Gilbert Urbina in August in 63 seconds. The 100% finish rate remains intact as well, as Medic calls for bigger opportunities in the future.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Muslim Salikhov R1 1:03 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Uros Medic because he is younger, faster, and more technical, but he is not confident. He notes that Muslim Salikhov hits extremely hard and has wrestling, making him a phenomenal underdog. He acknowledges that Medic was almost finished by Gilbert Urbina, which raises concerns about his chin.
Big Brady has a hot take predicting Salikhov wins by spinning wheel kick knockout in the first round. He highlights Salikhov's patented spinning wheel kick, which he has used to knock out multiple opponents, including Carlos Leia. He questions Medić's durability, noting he got knocked down by Gilbert Urbina, which is a bad sign. He expects an early knockout.
Cody picks Salikhov, noting his power and counter-striking ability. He thinks Medić's aggressive, forward-moving style plays into Salikhov's hands, and that Salikhov will land a knockout early.
Lucrative James picks Muslim Salikhov despite acknowledging the volatility of the matchup. He notes Salikhov's higher level of competition and experience, as well as his recent training camp improvements. However, he admits both fighters have poor chins and heavy hands, making it a coin flip. He predicts Salikhov wins by knockout in round one, but also considers betting on the under or 'doesn't go to decision'.
The host expects a firecracker fight and loves the under 1.5 rounds. He believes Medic will snipe Salikhov from distance and win by knockout within five minutes.
Paul also picks Salikhov, calling the fight a 'car crash' and expecting a knockout. He likes the plus money on the older fighter and thinks Medić's durability issues will be exposed.
The Guru picks Muslim Salikhov to win by first-round KO. He believes Uroš Medić is too easily hit and erratic, lunging in with punches, while Salikhov has powerful spinning attacks and counters. He expects Salikhov to catch Medić coming in and finish him early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gilbert Urbina | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 1 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gilbert Urbina | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Urbina | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Urbina | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Medic (-400); Urbina (+300)
Round 1
Anchorage, Alaska, native Medic (10-3, 4-3 UFC) has not quite put things together yet in the UFC, even if all four of his wins thus far are by knockout. To try to bounce back from his first knockout loss, “The Doctor” draws BMF Ranch trainee Urbina (7-3, 1-2 UFC). The third man in the Octagon for this welterweight clash is referee Mark Smith, who stands back to allow the competitors to meet in the middle without bumping fists.
Urbina introduces himself with a huge right hand that sends Medic flying, and the Alaskan jumps back up and gathers his thoughts. Urbina does not try to finish the fight, instead allowing Medic to kick at him so he can respond with a hard body kick.
Medic splits the guard with a heavy left, and he drives a knee into the chin. Medic sits down on a piston-like left hand, and the mulleted Urbina ducks directly into the blow and is completely knocked out.
Medic gets off one more big hammerfist before Smith rushes in to call it. “The Doctor” is in as actual doctors rush into the cage to tend to the unconscious Urbina, who is sprawled out on the mat like a starfish. Urbina manages to come to after some time, and he needs to be helped up but otherwise appears ok beyond needing to be checked for concussion protocols. Meanwhile, that is five knockouts for Medic’s five wins in the UFC thus far, and his 100% finish rate remains sparkling.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Gilbert Urbina R1 1:03 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Uroš Medić but hates the odds at -350. He notes Medić is a technical striker with 100% finish rate and killer instinct, but his takedown defense is low. Gilbert Urbina is a grappler with high output but poor striking defense. Angelo thinks Medić will win because strikers are having more success, but the odds are too wide for his liking.
Big Brady is confident in Uroš Medić, citing his 100% finish rate and legitimate striking power. He criticizes Gilbert Urbina's chin, noting he was dropped multiple times by Tawn Gore and knocked out by Charles Raki. Brady believes Medić is a much better striker than Raki and will knock out Urbina early. He predicts a first-round knockout for Medić.
Connor picks Urbina because he thinks Medić's game has been figured out after getting wrecked a few times, and Urbina might not give him respect. He notes Urbina's cage wrestling and good riding skills from his win over Cosce.
Despite not being a big fan of Medic, the host sees this as a winnable fight and expects it to be violent. He thinks Medic will consistently crash the pocket and produce car crashes that could result in a finish, leading him to pick Medic by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić over Gilbert Urbina, noting that Urbina's height is likely misreported and he lacks presence. He believes Medić has better offensive skills and finishing potential, and that his losses are to higher-level opponents. He predicts a TKO win for Medić.
Zane picks Medić because he is dynamic on the front foot and fast, and Urbina is not a pressure fighter. He notes Medić's tendency to put himself in bad positions but thinks Urbina will give him early opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Six bouts constitute the main card of this Fight Night in the Apex, and the first of those six comes at 170 pounds. Former middleweight brawler Soriano (10-4, 4-4 UFC) has picked up a few new tricks in the form of wrestling, but he will have his hands full with former Anchorage BJJ student Medic (10-2, 4-2 UFC). Fists are sure to fly, and they are bumped first under the watchful eye of referee Mike Beltran. Medic leads the dance with a short left hand, and Soriano gives him one back to think about almost immediately. Soriano kicks the front leg, and Medic blasts him back to the liver.
“Story Time” steels himself and charges like a bull, and a right hand sends Medic flying. With Medic crumpled in a heap on his side, Soriano jackhammers him with additional punches until Medic goes out and Beltran has seen enough.
Soriano rushes away to celebrate, where he drops to his hands and rattles off over a dozen pushups.
The Official Result
Punahele Soriano def. Uros Medic R1 0:31 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.
Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.
Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.
Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.
Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.
Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.
The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.
Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Tim Means | 1 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 7 of 17 | 41% | 1 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Means | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Means immediately changes levels and gets a body lock. Medic is defending well but eats some knees to the legs. They separate as Medic lands a sharp elbow. Means looks for another takedown. Medic counters well with a throw. They separate back to striking range.
Means comes in and eats an explosive left uppercut that sits him down. Referee Herb Dean stops the fight after a follow-up punch puts Means out.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Tim Means via TKO (Punches); R1, 2:09.
Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.
Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.
Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.
Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.
The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 16 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 7:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myktybek Orolbai | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Uroš Medić | 8 of 20 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Myktybek Orolbai | 14 of 25 | 56% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Uroš Medić | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | |
| 2 | Myktybek Orolbai | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Orolbai (-140), Medic (+130)
Round 1
The main card begins with an action fight that may not last too long. With nine finishes in his nine pro wins, Medic (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will try to make Kyrgyzstani newcomer Orolbai (11-1-1, 0-0 UFC) have to see a medic after their welterweight clash. In his own right, Orolbai posts 10 stoppages across his 11 victories. Referee Mike Beltran is ready for what happens when the two do not touch gloves. Medic greets the debutant with a pair of body kicks, and Orolbai swats at him with a left hook. Medic attacks the midsection with a third kick, and Orolbai lunges at him in an effort to reach the longer fighter. Medic bounces a pair of kicks off the guard, and he keeps a wide berth until stepping in with a one-two. Orolbai lowers himself down, and Medic drills him in the face with a knee. Orolbai is stunned, and he tries to level change and lift up Medic. The man from Kyrgyzstan succeeds in tripping Medic’s rear leg out to set him down, and Medic is quick to walk up with the fence behind him. Orolbai lands a mat return and steps over to take Medic’s back, and Medic tugs on the fence to stand back up. Beltran warns him, and Orolbai enforces this by slamming Medic back down. Medic shrugs at the control that is being imposed on him, and he stands back up once more and tries to frame off by pushing his leg off of Orolbai’s chest. Orolbai drops down and hits a double, planting Medic on his seat. “The Doctor” climbs upright with Orolbai hanging on from behind him, and Orolbai ragdolls him with another takedown. Orolbai laces his legs around Medic’s to trap him on his back, and he drags Medic away from the fence and stacks him up. Medic lets fly a few upkicks, but Orolbai is able to lower himself back down and step over to get a hook around Medic’s leg. Orolbai slugs Medic in the face with a left hand, and some swelling starts to grow around Medic’s left eye. Orolbai hacks down with a few punches and elbows until the round wraps up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Round 2
The second round opens up with Medic kicking at a safe distance, but Orolbai is quick to crowd him again. Orolbai slings a right hand over the top to close in, and Medic skirts to the side so he does not put his back up against the wall. Orolbai swings another right hand that allows him to get up close, and he secures a double and deposits Medic to the floor. Medic gets stuck with his back against the wall and his legs on the floor, as Orolbai tries to drag him into an uncomfortable position and start to work him over. Orolbai elbows as he gets pulled back to the guard, and he keeps control of Medic’s wrist to stifle him from getting up. Orolbai lets Medic turn over so he can take the back, and both of his hooks comes around as he grips his right arm on the chin of his opponent. Orolbai locks up the body triangle and softens Medic up with right hands around the back, until Medic scrambles to get to his feet. Orolbai drags him back down to a knee and then to his backside, and Medic sharply exhales in frustration. Orolbai clings to him and makes Medic’s life miserable with control and sporadic ground-and-pound. Orolbai fastens his arm under the chin, but Medic turns out of it.
Orolbai readjusts his grip and elects to squeeze on Medic’s face while wrenching the neck in a nasty direction. As Orolbai continues to torque the neck, Medic hangs tough until he cannot take it anymore, and he taps out.
Coming in on short notice, Orolbai puts on a show and manhandles a tough out to introduce himself to the promotion.
The Official Result
Myktybek Orolbai def. Uros Medic R2 4:12 via Submission (Neck Crank)
Angelo picks Uroš Medić, expecting his technical striking and patience to light up the brawler Johnny Parsons. He notes Medić has speed, footwork, and a killer instinct. He warns that Parsons is always live for a knockout but does not think he will find it here.
Big Brady was impressed with Orolbai's skills but notes he's coming in on short notice, which affects his cardio for a wrestling-heavy game plan. He thinks Medić is dangerous, has shown three-round cardio, and can finish fights late. He picks Medić by third-round knockout, but says on a full camp he would pick Orolbai. He doesn't see himself betting this fight.
Cody does not make a clear pick due to lack of information on Orolbai. He notes the fight was added late and he hasn't studied it. He mentions Orolbai looks like a 'bad man' but is on short notice. He leans towards passing or taking the favorite but is uncertain.
Orolbai has relentless grappling and crushing top pressure, with improved striking leading to knockouts. Medić is a striker with questionable ground game. Orolbai will dictate the pace with wrestling, land big shots, and find a finish in the second round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a favorite prop.
Paul also does not make a clear pick, stating he hasn't looked into Orolbai enough. He mentions Medić's toughness and power but cannot confidently pick a side. He suggests the fight will be violent but passes on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić to finish Myktybek Orolbai with a body kick. He notes Medić's size at welterweight and his win over Matthew Semelsberger, where he survived a knockdown and finished him in the third round at altitude. He criticizes Orolbai for making Danny Roberts look competitive and believes Medić's reach and height advantage will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 52 of 120 | 43% | 53 of 121 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 69 of 128 | 53% | 76 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 1 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Uroš Medić | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 1 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uroš Medić | 52 of 120 | 43% | 31 of 91 | 8 of 14 | 13 of 15 | 42 of 106 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 69 of 128 | 53% | 49 of 98 | 17 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 50 of 104 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uroš Medić | 17 of 36 | 47% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 18 of 31 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Uroš Medić | 24 of 58 | 41% | 12 of 40 | 3 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 25 of 55 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Uroš Medić | 11 of 26 | 42% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Semelsberger | 26 of 42 | 61% | 21 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Semelsberger (-205), Medic (+175)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, as two action fighters prepare to only leave one man standing. “Semi the Jedi” Semelsberger (11-5, 5-3 UFC) has his full array of Jedi mind tricks at his disposal, while “The Doctor” Medic (8-1, 2-1 UFC) wants to show on short notice that mind tricks do not work on him – only money, and punches. This potential thriller draws oversight from referee Tyler Tomlinson, and it kicks off as the two men bump fists. Semelsberger is the initial aggressor, launching an early head kick that bounces off the raised guard. Medic kicks, and the two clash together as Medic topples to the mat. In a furious exchange, Medic gets off some upkicks, but Semelsberger circles around to take the back. Medic defends with a possible leglock as they continue to roll, and this forces them to lean up against the cage and walk up it. Medic breaks off and scores a short right hand, and the two reset. Medic leaves a lazy right hook out too long, and Semelsberger snaps the head back with a straight right hand. Semelsberger paws out a one-two, and Medic replies with a similar pair of punches that split the guard. Medic kicks low, and Semelsberger slowly crowds him but does not let go. They both get off single strikes, with Semelsberger’s right hand a big one. Medic winds up with a heft left hook, causing the mullet of Semelsberger to wave behind him. Medic backs up against the fence, bounces off it, and tosses a high kick that makes Semelsberger nod at him. Semelsberger counters a kick with an overhand left that lands loudly, and a straight right hand knocks Medic clean off his feet. Semelsberger lowers himself down into the guard, as his corner desperately cries for him to not play in the guard. Semelsberger stands up, and Medic blasts him in the chops with an upkick. Medic trips Semelsberger up, and Semelsberger stumbles to his back. Medic jumps up and chases after him, and he drills Semelsberger with a few punches. Semelsberger comes back firing with a right hand, dropping Medic down to his face. Medic tries to recover with a takedown attempt, and Semelsberger swirls around to take his back. The two break up and take breaths after the ferocious exchange. Semelsberger plants two solid right hands on the chin, and he measures Medic and bobs up and down as he works his way in. Semelsberger sneaks up a high kick as Medic misses a hook, and Semelsberger busts open a cut on the bridge of the nose with a right hand. Medic strikes the body with a kick, and Semelsberger whiffs with a counter as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 2
The welterweights are fired up to get back after it, as they clap their hands together. Medic leads off with a solid one-two, and Semelsberger responds with a missile of a right hand back at him. Medic kicks the body with body legs, and he disrupts an advancing Semelsberger with a few punches. They both fire off kicks to the midsection, and Semelsberger tries to follow one with an overhand right that misses the mark by a wide margin. Medic paws out with a few left hands, and Semelsberger crowds him with a trio of punches. Medic counters his man on the inside, and Semelsberger hammers his lead leg three times in a row. Medic follows a left hand with a low kick, and Semelsberger is right in front of him to fire out a one-two. Semelsberger doubles up on a jab, and a left hand shakes Medic up. The Alaskan by way of Serbia grits his teeth and gets back into the pocket, only to dance out of the way when Semelsberger is throwing hands. They trade right hands, but Semelsberger lands flusher. Medic delivers a kick to the body, and Semelsberger does the exact same thing and then kicks Medic’s lead wheel for good measure. Semelsberger rashes the pocket and tags Medic a few times, only to get backed off when Medic tries to initiate a brawl. Semelsberger hooks a right hand on the ear, and Medic backs off and aims a kick at the dome. Semelsberger mimics him with his own high kick, after nodding at Medic for the effective strike. Semelsberger keeps his guard up high as Medic strings punches together, but a few manage to get through. Semelsberger eats a left hand on the end of an exchange, and this results in heavy counters from both men. Semelsberger use head movement to evade a few strikes, and he takes a front kick to the chest. Semelsberger blocks a head kick, and he powers forward to miss with a right hand. Semelsberger steps in with a knee that misses, and a right hand that does not. Medic scores a right hand and follows with a blocked head kick, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Medic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger
Round 3
Semelsberger is the one fired up coming out of his corner, swinging with big punches and kicks. Medic stands in the pocket to counter, and he eats a right hand as he powers forward. Medic rips a shin to the liver, and Semelsberger might be compromised but he sticks his tongue out to keep a poker face. Semelsberger pushes forward, blocking the punches that soar towards him so that he can clinch up. Semelsberger presses Medic against the wire, but Medic turns the corner and stuns him with a right hand on the break. Semelsberger digs a shin to the calf, and Medic swings right back. Semelsberger gets off a crisp right hand, and Medic has to hop back a few steps to get his balance. Medic targets the body, and he leans back from a big right hand and swings a high kick up. Semelsberger is able to block it, and he pushes out a one-two that gets parried. Semelsberger lands a right, and Medic jabs him back. Semelsberger whiffs on a leg kick, and the two start trading with bad intentions. Semelsberger unloads with a right hand, and Medic returns fire with a thudding right hand on the temple that rocks “Semi the Jedi.” Semelsberger laughs it off, but he is hurt badly.
Medic tactically comes forward, spinning with a back fist that ends connects with the forearm and sends Semelsberger careening to the canvas. Medic stands over him and hammers the nail with several standing-to-ground punches, and Tomlinson steps in to wave the fight off.
Semelsberger immediately protests, claiming he was not out, but when he stands up, he is still very wobbly. The victorious Medic retains his 100% finish rate by informing fight fans that “The Doctor” is in.
The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Matthew Semelsberger R3 2:36 via TKO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches)
Angelo picks Semelsberger because he believes Semelsberger has enough chin to weather Medić's striking and can then work in his grappling advantage. He notes that Semelsberger has solid leg kicks, body work, and power, but can be sloppy. He trusts Semelsberger to close the gap and drag the fight into later rounds, where his grappling should take over. He already placed a half-unit bet at -150.
Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Semelsberger has more paths to victory: better durability, cardio, wrestling, and grappling, plus massive power (nine knockdowns in eight fights). He expects Medić, coming up in weight on short notice at elevation, to fade after an early onslaught, and Semelsberger's chin will hold up to finish him.
Cody picks Semelsberger but is hesitant at -200. He notes Medić's power and early finishing ability but questions his cardio. Semelsberger has good volume and takedown defense issues but can survive early onslaughts. He suggests a live bet on Semelsberger if he survives the first round.
James believes Medić is a cleaner striker with better timing and technique, while Semelsberger has more power but an elite chin that may eventually crack. He notes the line has moved heavily toward Semelsberger, creating value on Medić as an underdog. He thinks the fight is fairly even and that Medić's striking prowess gives him the edge.
Semelsberger has more knockdowns than fights and his forward pressure and power punching will be too much for Medić. Medić is a glass cannon with a hand injury history and doesn't have the grappling to exploit Semelsberger's weakness. Semelsberger will land a big punch and knock him out. Fight doesn't go to decision is a great play.
Paul also picks Semelsberger, citing his superior cardio and volume. He notes Medić's limited cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. Semelsberger has faced wrestlers and power punchers but has shown durability. He advises a live bet if Medić doesn't finish early.
Daniel Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 82 of 173 | 47% | 111 of 207 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 111 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 82 of 173 | 47% | 53 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 25 | 60 of 137 | 17 of 27 | 5 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 77 of 149 | 51% | 49 of 106 | 13 of 26 | 15 of 17 | 54 of 107 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 40 of 83 | 48% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 39 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 29 of 60 | 48% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 31 of 55 | 56% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 27 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 25 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)
Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.
Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.
Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.
The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-122), Rodriguez (+102)
Round 1
A couple of welterweight action merchants draw feature bout duty at UFC Des Moines, as “The Argentine Dagger” and “D-Rod” prepare to slug it out. The third man in the Octagon, charged with possibly protecting one or both of these battle-hardened 38-year-olds from their own toughness, is Kevin Macdonald. Ponzinibbio sets up in orthodox, Rodriguez southpaw, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches as they nearly collide in the first seconds. A minute in, neither man has landed anything solid, but Rodriguez plants his feet and catches the advancing Ponzinibbio with a nice jab to the body. Scattered “whoos” can be heard as the two remain deliberate and tactical through the first half of Round 1. Ponzinibbio connects with a hard body kick that has “D-Rod” reacting visibly. Rodriguez stalks forward again and Ponzinibbio meets him with another body kick, this one a front kick to the midsection. Ponzinibbio steps forward and tries another kick, but slips on the attempt and Rodriguez pounces, clocking him with a left hand to the jaw that staggers him. Ponzinibbio retreats, trying to regain his wits, as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez lands a couple more good punches, but Ponzinibbio recovers before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Ponzinibbio appears to be back in possession of his faculties as they engage to open Round 2, but Rodriguez is clearly loading up his left hand, hoping to go back to that well at some point. Ponzinibbio lands a solid right to the chin, which Rodriguez eats, returning fire with a left cross. Whether because of the Round 1 slip or for some other reason, Ponzinibbio is not nearly as aggressive with his kicks through the first two minutes of the round. Left to relying on his boxing, he is getting the worse of most of the exchanges. Ponzinibbio steps in and misses just short with a big right hand, then comes back with another one that glances off the chin. Rodriguez’s movements are looking a bit labored halfway through the round. Ponzinibbio closes the distance and shoots for a takedown. Rodriguez ends up with his back against the fence, where Ponzinibbio cannot complete the takedown. They move off the fence and Ponzinibbio shoots again, this time bringing “D-Rod” to the canvas. The 10-second clapper sounds as they hit the floor, and the horn sounds before either man can put in any significant work.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Given the close nature of Round 2, it might be anyone’s fight for the taking on the judges’ scorecards, and Ponzinibbio strikes first with an overhand right. Rodriguez continues to breathe with his mouth open, but he is far from done, wading into the pocket and connecting with a left cross.
Rodriguez hits Ponzinibbio with a body kick, then a few seconds later, crushes him with a four-punch combination, finishing with a left hook that puts his foe down. Referee Macdonald, in perfect position to see Ponzinibbio’s eyes, recognizes that “The Argentine Dagger” is done and jumps in for the save as Rodriguez pounces to put in the coffin nails.
Ponzinibbio gets up and protests the stoppage, but his case is undermined by the fact that he goes stumbling across the cage and runs chest-first into the fence. Fantastic finish by Daniel Rodriguez, just at the point that the momentum of the fight appeared to be turning.
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 1:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 123 of 257 | 47% | 126 of 260 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 74 of 257 | 28% | 91 of 276 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 44 of 99 | 44% | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 23 of 91 | 25% | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 54 of 102 | 52% | 57 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 20 of 85 | 23% | 37 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 123 of 257 | 47% | 44 of 153 | 56 of 80 | 23 of 24 | 117 of 251 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 74 of 257 | 28% | 58 of 228 | 9 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 74 of 256 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 25 of 56 | 44% | 7 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 31 of 81 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 44 of 99 | 44% | 19 of 65 | 18 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 23 of 91 | 25% | 20 of 83 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 54 of 102 | 52% | 18 of 56 | 27 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 20 of 85 | 23% | 18 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-198), Morono (+164)
Round 1
Action is on the menu with this welterweight main card opener. Recent middleweight Rodriguez (17-5, 7-4 UFC) realized after his last outing that he is better suited for 170 pounds, and Morono (24-10, 1 NC; 13-7, 1 NC UFC) will serve as a more-than-willing dance partner. Referee Herb Dean will have his hands full as long as this one goes, and the fighters elect not to touch ‘em up. Morono stays on the outside chipping with low kicks, and Rodriguez marches forward looking for left hands. Morono loads up with a right, and he gets Rodriguez’ attention and is forced to parry a response. Morono reaches out with two punches, and he catches Rodriguez ducking in to score a right. The Texan keeps moving, absorbing a low kick and firing off a right over the top. Rodriguez eats a pair of punches when coming forward, and he shines up Morono’s right eye with a counter. Morono pursues a high kick, and he chambers and fires a right hand on the counter. Morono backs Rodriguez up with another right, and they trade kicks. Morono’s head kick comes up short, and Rodriguez tries and fail to land his own. Morono bounces his way in and out to attack, not absorbing much back from “D-Rod.” Morono lets off a right hand, and he gets clipped on the way turning himself around after spinning for a back fist. Morono sits down on a thudding right hand that forces Rodriguez to blink it out, and Rodriguez escapes and pushes out a jab to the belly. Morono absorbs a flush body kick and throws back with three punches up top. Morono jabs, flicks out a low kick and releases a trio of fists high. Rodriguez snaps the head back with a sharp jab, and he gets knocked back a few steps from a winging right hand. Morono keeps him guessing with a wide variety of strikes, but his short right hands do as well as anything he puts out. Morono whiffs on another high kick, and he slips a punch to fire off a haymaker that misses by a whisker. Morono kicks low and is met with a pair of heavy punches, and Rodriguez smiles. They trade low kicks, and Morono connects with three big overhand rights. Rodriguez wears them well, blocks a spin and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Round 2
The welterweight strikers pick up where they left off, trading blows without fear. Rodriguez fight behind his jab, and Morono looks for counters. One heavy right sends Rodriguez careening back, and Rodriguez gathers his thoughts and wades forward to re-engage. Morono takes a right hook on the chin and reloads to slug it out with Rodriguez. A right from Morono glides off the shiny head of his opponent, and Rodriguez keeps jabbing away. Morono’s face is marked up from the jabs, and he jumps forward with a Superman punch that misses the mark. Rodriguez jabs the body with his foot, and Morono meets him with a step-in right hand. Morono puts a jab on Rodriguez’s face when Rodriguez resets, and he scores a right over the top. Rodriguez fires off a high kick, and Morono comes up short on another Superman punch. Morono jabs his way into a right hand, and his subsequent haymaker bounces off the guard. When Morono slings another, it gets through. Rodriguez barely flinches when taking it flush, and he retaliates with counters on counters. Rodriguez lines up a body kick and swats his way into action, only to walk face-first into a home run punch. Rodriguez again does not waver as he takes the power strike cleanly, and Morono strings three more together over the top before getting out. Morono ducks a jab and releases a right hand, and Rodriguez’ jaw hangs open slightly as if it sustained some damage. Rodriguez’ job stays busy, and he uses it to cut off the looping striker. Morono still gets off a thudding right hand, and he goes to the body with a kick and follows with a right hook. Rodriguez scores to back Morono off, and Morono rushes back at him throwing fire. Rodriguez goes after a one-two to the body, and the two trade furiously until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The two men are ready and willing to get after it as soon as Dean calls for them to begin. Morono cracks Rodriguez with an effective right hand at the end of a flurry, and Rodriguez calms himself down and pushes out with a front kick and one to the lead leg. Morono chambers and fires a big right hand that partially connects, and he gets knocked back from a short left. Rodriguez follows with a hard left, and Morono staggers back to get his bearings. Instead of shelling up, Morono steels himself and comes out swinging even harder than before. The wild attacks of “The Great White” catch Rodriguez a few times, and Rodriguez’ speed is making a difference as he tends to land first. Morono catches a kick and pushes his man back, but he lets it go instead of pursuing a takedown. Morono jabs his way into an overhand right, and as Rodriguez responds, Morono bombs back. Rodriguez pokes out a leg kick and slides back from a salvo of fists, and he kicks the lead leg again and leans back from the massive counter. Rodriguez sticks Morono a few times with his piston-like left, giving Morono something to think about each time. Morono loads up with his right hand from down by his hip, and Rodriguez absorbs it cleanly and pecks at his foe with a clean right. Morono spins his way in with a back fist, and Rodriguez ducks it and tags him with a left. Rodriguez pushes the Texan against the fence, kneeing him a few times in the midsection while stifling Morono’s trip attempts. Rodriguez digs a few punches to the body on the break, and he sits down on counters with Morono bearing down on him. Rodriguez snipes him with a short right, and he slips back when Morono sells out on fastballs. Morono walks his foe down but cannot corner him or land cleanly, with Rodriguez playing defense until he ducks a spinning back fist and hurls Morono to the floor. Morono explodes back upright, and the horn blares to call an end to what should be a close one, depending on how the second round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Morono)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Alex Morono via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.
Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.
Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.
Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.
Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 112 of 238 | 47% | 123 of 250 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 127 of 265 | 47% | 132 of 273 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 44 of 93 | 47% | 45 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 46 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 39 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 39 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 112 of 238 | 47% | 77 of 193 | 14 of 20 | 21 of 25 | 105 of 226 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 127 of 265 | 47% | 82 of 214 | 36 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 127 of 265 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 44 of 93 | 47% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 46 of 91 | 50% | 25 of 67 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 46 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 86 | 43% | 27 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 53 of 113 | 46% | 38 of 97 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 31 of 59 | 52% | 23 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 28 of 61 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)
Round 1
What was scheduled to be a welterweight feature now takes place at 185 pounds, thanks to the reliably unreliable Gastelum reminding us all why the UFC forced him up a weight class in the first place. Rich Mitchell is the third man in the cage. They set up in orthodox stance and immediately get to work boxing. Gastelum comes forward, with Rodriguez throwing his jab and giving ground. Neither man lands solidly in the frenetic opening moments, but Gastelum gets his hands on Rodriguez and shoves him to the cage, with a possible clash of noggins taking place along the way. Rodriguez breaks the clinch quickly and they return to the middle of the cage. Gastelum bounces into range with overhands and right crosses that come up just short of Rodriguez’s chin, while “D-Rod” returns fire with his own jab. Rodriguez goes southpaw, and a moment later Gastelum clocks him with an overhand left, his best shot of the round so far. Half the round is gone, and Rodriguez is still working to keep Gastelum on the end of his punches. Gastelum crashes the pocket and tags Rodriguez with a left-right combo before Rodriguez can slip out the side. Rodriguez spins Gastelum’s head with a left hook-right cross combination, but Gastelum shakes it off and keeps moving forward. Gastelum reaches out and hits the body. Gastelum backs Rodriguez into the fence and nails him with several more punches right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Round 2
Gastelum surges forward again, throwing punches in pairs, and just barely slips a murderous counter from Rodriguez. They exchange combinations in the center of the cage, some of which glance, but plenty connect for both men. Rodriguez stops Gastelum’s forward movement with a jab to the body. Gastelum walks Rodriguez into the fence, but “D-Rod” circles away before he can do any work there. Gastelum changes levels and plows Rodriguez to the canvas with ease. Gastelum sets up shop at the base of the fence from top position, but Rodriguez stands quickly and they separate. Both men are in southpaw stance now, boxing at close range. Rodriguez catches Gastelum cleanly with a three-piece, but Gastelum shakes it off and returns fire. Gastelum lands a calf kick that makes Rodriguez stumble. Rodriguez tags Gastelum with a long righty jab, and Gastelum punishes him with another low kick. Rodriguez catches Gastelum with a clean one-two at the 10-second clapper. Gastelum secures a takedown right at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Gastelum once again comes out as if shot from a cannon, throwing his jab and one-two. Rodriguez is ready for them, but Gastelum’s first calf kick of the round stumbles him. Rodriguez seems to have no answer for those kicks, limited only by Gastelum’s sparing use of them. Gastelum changes levels for a possible takedown, but gives up on it almost immediately. They’re back to boxing at middle-to-close range, both men getting their licks in. Gastelum breaks things up by shooting for a double-leg near the fence, hoisting and depositing Rodriguez on the canvas. Gastelum moves quickly to side control and starts grinding his elbow into Rodriguez’s face, keeping his weight squarely on Rodriguez’s chest. “D-Rod” regains one-quarter guard, slipping one butterfly hook in between them. He gets half guard, and Gastelum stands out of his guard, raining down a couple of punches before letting Rodriguez return to his feet. Gastelum promptly drops for another takedown, which he gets with ease. He is on top, throwing short strikes from top position, when the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Rodriguez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
The Official Result
Kelvin Gastelum def. Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.
Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.
Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.
JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.
Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-285), Rodriguez (+240)
Round 1
A place in the top 10 at 170 pounds may loom for the victor of this “featured fight of the night.” After suffering his first career stoppage loss from the hands of Neil Magny, Rodriguez (17-3, 7-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to smash up unbeaten Garry (11-0, 4-0 UFC) and his shiny undefeated record. A thrilling clash is sure to play out for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Dan Miragliotta may have his hands full with these two strikers. They do opt to touch gloves before getting after it, and Rodriguez pushes the pace and walks right into a body kick. Rodriguez pushes out a solid jab, and he springs back and forth, energetic with active movement. Garry gets off his own jab, and Rodriguez gives chase and throws a big overhand right. Garry slides out of the way and scores a high leg kick. Garry lands a left, and Rodriguez stands firm and clubs him with a counter. The two trade vicious leather, and Rodriguez reels and backs off to find a better way in. When Rodriguez advances, Garry kicks him in the ribs, and he eats a pair of jabs when looking to close the distance. Rodriguez kicks low and ties him up, but he breaks off as he would prefer to trade hands. Garry scores at the end of a three-punch salvo, and Rodriguez bounces forward and shucks off a body kick while missing a hook. Garry slaps him in the face with the instep of his foot, and he knocks Rodriguez back to the wall while chants of “Ole Ole Ole” rain down in the building. Rodriguez swings and misses with a pair of big punches, and he connects with a chopping inside calf kick.
Garry boots Rodriguez upside the head, and as Rodriguez backpedals, Garry chases after him and bowls him over. “The Future” reintroduces himself to the downed Rodriguez with several huge punches, and Rodriguez turns to his knees and appears to be out of it. Garry strategically finishes the job with one final onslaught of punches, as Rodriguez rolls to his side with nothing left to offer. Miragliotta intervenes when he determines that Rodriguez is no longer intelligently defending himself
, and Garry has just passed a massive test with flying colors. The Irishman becomes the first fighter to ever finish the durable, dangerous “D-Rod,” doing so in the first round without taking much damage. Garry climbs to the top of the cage and encourages the crowd to roar, having likely claimed a spot in the top 15 with his dynamite performance.
The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Daniel Rodriguez R1 2:57 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez with low confidence, calling him a great striker especially when not worried about takedowns. He notes Ian Garry is hittable and keeps his head straight up. He says Rodriguez will be the best striker Garry has faced and that Garry may not recover from being tagged like he did against Kanaan. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady thinks this fight is closer than the odds suggest. He notes Garry's striking defense is a liability, citing past fights where he got hit clean. Brady believes Rodriguez has the durability and volume to make it competitive, and expects a 15-minute striking fight that goes to decision. He picks the dog Rodriguez to pull off the upset, but acknowledges the UFC likely wants Garry to win and corrupt judges may favor him. He calls laying -300 on Garry 'whack'.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a value underdog, despite low confidence. He notes Rodriguez's experience and volume, but acknowledges Garry's speed and potential. He thinks Rodriguez could expose Garry's defensive flaws, but is not confident enough to bet heavily. He calls it a 'value pick' and places it at the bottom of his confidence list.
Connor picks Garry, emphasizing his fast start and ability to build momentum. He notes that Garry's low kicks will be a problem for Rodriguez, who hasn't faced good kickers. He thinks Rodriguez will have moments and may hurt Garry, but Garry's consistency and movement will earn him the win. He also mentions Garry's jab and straight punches as key tools.
Daniel Levi picks Ian Machado Garry, praising his confidence, striking volume, and well-rounded game. He notes that Garry has landed over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights and has knockdowns in three of his four UFC bouts. Levi believes Garry's speed and reach will be key, as Rodriguez does not have a reach or height advantage. He acknowledges Garry was dropped in his last fight but attributes that to facing a heavy hitter in Song Kenan, and notes that Rodriguez has also been dropped. Levi sees Garry winning a competitive fight, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Rodriguez.
Garry is the better striker, using distance, kicks, and a one-two down the pipe to pick apart Rodriguez. He is 11 years younger and trains at Kill Cliff FC. He may also look to take the fight to the ground to avoid Rodriguez's power. The fight will resemble Garry's win over Gabe Green, with Garry landing more consistently and winning by decision. Rodriguez is a tough test but Garry's youth and skill should prevail.
Paul picks Garry, noting his reach, technique, and cardio. He expects a close decision win for Garry, as Rodriguez doesn't have the skill set to expose him. He mentions adding Garry to a parlay at -250 but not a big play. He doubts Rodriguez's wrestling and believes Garry's speed and lateral movement will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Machado Garry, highlighting his diverse striking and leg kicks. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a boxing-heavy fighter who stands heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He believes Garry will overwhelm Rodriguez with a variety of attacks and predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Garry, citing his speed, footwork, and exceptional low kicking. He notes that Rodriguez is slow and has poor leg defense, and Garry's ability to build offense over time will be key. He acknowledges Rodriguez's counter-punching and durability but thinks Garry's consistency and volume will win out. He also mentions Garry's jab and low kicks as major advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 57 of 109 | 52% | 106 of 169 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 71 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 38 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 57 of 109 | 52% | 38 of 85 | 16 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 108 | 61% | 36 of 76 | 15 of 17 | 15 of 15 | 63 of 103 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 22 of 39 | 56% | 14 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 27 of 52 | 51% | 18 of 41 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 53 | 66% | 25 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 50 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 8 of 18 | 44% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magny (-115), Rodriguez (-105)
Round 1
The first bout on the card featuring ranked fighters will come in the UFC’s welterweight division, as perennial contender Magny (26-9, 19-8 UFC) looks to show that he is too much for Rodriguez (17-2, 7-1 UFC). As it will likely be discussed before every one of his matches until he achieves the feat, Magny is one win away from his 20th at 170 pounds, which would break a tie with all-time great Georges St. Pierre. The two 35-year-olds will battle it out in front of referee Herb Dean, and they do not wish to touch gloves. Magny holds his left arm out to keep Rodriguez away, and he pushes out a front kick. Rodriguez sits down on a left hand that knocks Magny back to the wall, but Magny bounces off and replies with a high kick that gets blocked. The two fighters trade leg kicks, and Rodriguez leaps forward with a right hand and a left to the body. Rodriguez connects with a right to the head and left to the body again, and Magny grimaces and responds with a looping punch. Rodriguez continues striking the midsection, and Magny clinches him up to slow down the body work. Rodriguez breaks free and scores a low kick, but a Magny jab has busted up the nose of “D-Rod.” Magny ties his foe up again, and Rodriguez once more fights out of it. Magny checks a kick and barely blocks a left hand in time, but he does drive Magny back to the wall again with a left hand to the liver. Magny ignores a low kick to fire off one that glances off the shoulder, and he times a Rodriguez leg kick to connect with a one-two. Magny does this same exact approach again, and as he tries to slug it out with Rodriguez, Rodriguez catches him with a clean punch that dislodges Magny’s mouthpiece. He replaces his gumshield and gets back to it, and Rodriguez bullies him back to the cage and starts nailing him with punches. Magny lets him advance into a tie-up, and he threatens with a standing arm-triangle choke before dragging Rodriguez down to the mat. Rodriguez grabs the fence in order to stand back up to his feet, and Magny holds on from behind before tripping “D-Rod” out again. Magny softens Rodriguez up with a few punches before sneaking an arm around the chin, but he elects to step over and partially take the back. Rodriguez explodes back up, and Magny lifts him up and exerts heavy pressure before slamming an elbow on the side of the head. Rodriguez breaks free with seconds to spare, and he sprints at Magny and drills him with a few punches right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle for the second stanza, and Magny sticks out a front kick to the body to reintroduce himself. Rodriguez lines up a left hand down the pipe, and Magny replies with a head kick that slams into the guard and shakes up Rodriguez. “D-Rod” marches Magny down after gathering his thoughts, and he backs Magny to the wall and connects with a clean left hand. Magny uses his reach in the hands and feet to back Rodriguez off, but Rodriguez bullies his way in with a left to the body and another to the head. Rodriguez pressures “The Haitian Sensation” with effective and powerful blows, and Magny tries to keep enough space and strike at his preferred range. Magny bursts forward with three punches that get Rodriguez’ respect, but Rodriguez comes out swinging and makes Magny rush away. The body shots from Rodriguez, especially his left hand, are adding up, and Magny reacts visibly when they land on him. Magny returns fire with front kicks, and he tries to intercept Rodriguez with a knee, but Rodriguez sees it zooming at him and sways to the side. Magny pushes the pace briefly, and he ends a short combo with a push kick to the body. Magny chains a few punches together, and Rodriguez pushes off the fence and advances. Rodriguez gives his foe a powerful shove to make Magny trip over himself, and he closes in to get clinched up. Rodriguez breaks the grip with another push, and he splits the guard with a sharp jab. Magny looks for a Thai clinch to knee the body, and Rodriguez continuously marches forward and smashes Magny in the face with a left hand. Magny’s chin holds together despite the power coming his way, and he uses tie-ups to slow the downhill-rolling Rodriguez. Magny hunts for a standing rear-naked choke at the end of the round, but he cannot get past Rodriguez’ hands before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The third round begins, and Rodriguez tries to pick up where he left off with power punches. Magny responds with two front kicks, and Rodriguez is right back in his face with looping punches. Magny leaps at him with a jump knee, and Rodriguez ricochets off the wall and swings back with a vengeance. A huge left hand staggers Magny, and Rodriguez follows up with another to put “The Haitian Sensation” on baby deer legs. Magny ends up pulling guard just to stop the figurative bleeding, and Rodriguez is fine with this so that he can land a few punches from on top. Magny takes the time he needs to defend well enough and clear himself, and Rodriguez backs off and takes an upkick to the chest. Magny stands up, and he pressures forward to pursue a takedown and wrench “D-Rod” down to the floor. Magny gets one hook in as he slugs Rodriguez in the face, and he steps into mount while Rodriguez is seated against the wall. Magny wraps up the legs and scores a few punches, but he shines when Rodriguez stands and Magny slams him back down hard. Magny slithers both hooks in, but he falls off the top and Rodriguez slides out the back.
Magny lets Rodriguez stand up so that he can wrap up a guillotine choke, and as Rodriguez falls to his back, Magny transitions straight into an anaconda choke. Magny adjusts his grip and switches the arm position to latch on a brabo choke, and Rodriguez might not have enough in the tank to get out of it. Magny squeezes with all his might, and his iron grip coupled with his superior energy reserves force “D-Rod” to tap out for the first time in his career.
Magny has done it, digging deep to pull off the victory, and he registers his 20th as a welterweight to pass "GSP" as the winningest in divisional history.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Daniel Rodriguez R3 3:33 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Magny, citing his well-roundedness and the many factors against Rodriguez: a close fight many thought he lost, a quick turnaround, and a staph infection that prevented training. He notes Magny is more well-rounded overall and expects him to get it done.
Big Brady favors Rodriguez's striking speed and volume, expecting him to stuff Magny's takedowns and keep the fight at range. He notes concerns about Rodriguez's recent injury and weight cut but believes he will win a decision. He sees Magny's path to victory as a grinding fight, but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Daniel Rodriguez to edge a close competitive decision. He notes that Magny relies heavily on wrestling and controlling opponents against the cage, but at 35, his takedown success is declining, as seen against Max Griffin (1 for 8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has good takedown defense and pops back up quickly, as shown against Jingliang and Kevin Lee. Rodriguez also has superior volume, landing high significant strikes in his fights, while Magny's output is lower because he focuses on grappling. In the Apex, the acoustics favor the volume striker, so Rodriguez should win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez, noting he bet him at +100 for two units. He believes Rodriguez has crisper, more meaningful strikes and that Magny may be on the decline, citing the Max Griffin fight where Magny was dropped and the Shavkat fight where he had no success. He warns that Rodriguez must avoid being lulled into Magny's clinch-heavy game, but thinks Rodriguez's cardio and boxing give him the edge.
The host likes Magny's pace, pressure, and cardio, believing he can outwork Rodriguez. He notes Magny's win over Jeff Neal (a better striker) as a positive indicator. He expects Magny to use dirty clinch, kicks, and volume to win a decision, and sees value on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Magny's jabs are often not counted as significant strikes, so his total strikes may be misleading. He points out that judges are rewarding bigger, cleaner shots over volume of jabs, which favors Rodriguez. He also questions whether Magny can dominate the grappling, as he has struggled against better grapplers. Paul picks d-rod for the same reasons.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, believing Magny's prime is past due to injuries and recent performances. He notes Rodriguez has underrated takedown defense and will outbox Magny, who relies on straight punches. He predicts a KO in round two, citing Magny's loss to Max Griffin and Rodriguez's full camp advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 78 of 175 | 44% | 78 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 88 of 185 | 47% | 89 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 78 of 175 | 44% | 25 of 103 | 23 of 34 | 30 of 38 | 78 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 88 of 185 | 47% | 54 of 140 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 22 | 88 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 54 | 50% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 20 of 40 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 24 of 59 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 16 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 62 | 43% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 79 | 43% | 25 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On a little over a day’s notice, these next three fights will all feature fighters facing different opponents than they trained for. This mix-and-match round robin begins at 180 pounds, with welterweight Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) battling it out against a man that weighed in 10 pounds heavier than him. Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC) planned on fighting at 180 pounds, so on paper he should have a significant weight advantage. Keeping things on the up-and-up is referee Mark Smith, and the fighters gladly touch gloves to start things off. Rodriguez tries to reach his opponent with a lunging right jab, and Li looks for a check hook on the way in but cannot land it. Rodriguez ducks back when a low kick sweeps at him, and he charges with two punches that knock the Chinese fighter back to the wall. Li targets another body kick, and Rodriguez cracks him with a left hand. They measure one another with their alternating hands, and the pace wanes as they appear to be concerned with one another’s power. Li kicks the body, and he dodges a response of the same variety. Rodriguez peppers the jab and walks into a right hand, but he pays it no mind and resets on the outside. Li kicks with both legs to the inside and outside of the leg, and Rodriguez keeps flicking out his sharp jab. Li throws a punch that bounces off the top of the cup and follows with one to the head, and Rodriguez ignores it and takes a flush body kick. Li works the ribcage with several body, and Rodriguez responds with a head kick that lands about as cleanly as one can, but Li does not even budge. Li instead swarms him with punches, and Rodriguez retreats and attacks the calf with his shin. Li leaps forward with a pair of punches, and Rodriguez shoulder rolls both of them and finds himself evading a secondary burst of blows aimed his way. Two kicks go unanswered from Li, and they clash shins when kicking at the same time. When Li fires off a kick to the side and lazily brings his leg back, Rodriguez times the opportunity to belt him with a pair of stunning hooks. Li shakes out the cobwebs and catches a low kick. As holds one leg up, he kicks the other, sweeping Rodriguez out and chasing him to smack him in the face with a right hand. Li backs off before Rodriguez can unload on him, and he gives ground and starts moving his arms around strangely. One last kick from “The Leech” connects before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 2
Fists are bumped to begin the second stanza, and Rodriguez skips forward with a chopping calf kick. Li gives him one back, and he bull-rushes forward with punches and backpedals to start showboating. Rodriguez does not make him pay for the posturing, only scoring a few swiping right hands that do not land flush. Rodriguez sticks out a jab, and they trade leg kicks on the inside. When Li charges in recklessly, Rodriguez quickly intercepts him with a short left. The jab for Rodriguez is working effectively, and Li is getting more wild and throwing heavier with wider arcs. Rodriguez sees them coming and sticks the jab in Li’s face repeatedly. Li sits down on an inside leg kick, and he gets backed off from a punch to the chest. Rodriguez connects with a solid kick on the inner thigh, and he aims another to the same spot. Rodriguez checks a kick and sticks his hands out, but Li swats them away. They grade these tit-for-tat strikes one after the other, as if taking turns to compete. Rodriguez turns up the pace briefly with a series of jabs, and he pulls back when Li winds up with a big left hand. Rodriguez dodges several winging punches, and the crowd begins to boo the two fighters for their swings and misses. Both men get off heavy leg kicks, and they come up short with their fists. When Li attempts a Superman punch, Rodriguez catches him with a quick right hook in the way forward, and Li changes his mind about any subsequent shots. Rodriguez scores a left, and Li responds with a booming shot that knocks Rodriguez and appears to hurt him. “The Leech” grins and lets Rodriguez off the hook instead of giving chase, and Rodriguez backs him up to the wall with low kicks and jabs. The American batters the lead leg with kicks, and he goes up high with a kick. Li throws him to the mat, but before he can take advantage, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 3
The gloves are touched to lead off the final period, and Rodriguez advances but does not throw much. Li counters him with a straight right, and they go punch for punch and kick for kick in a slow but methodical pace. Li charges, swinging hammers, and Rodriguez backs him off with jabs and checks a leg kick. Li throws bombs, and Rodriguez slips them and comes forward. Li attempts to catch a kick, and he lets go before anything comes from it. Li peppers his man with leg kicks, and he scores a left hand on the ear. Li slaps Rodriguez as the crowd voices its disapproval, and this prompts a brief exchange of fists. Rodriguez takes anything on the chin and venomously retaliates, and Li ricochets off the fencing. Li ducks a hook and swings wide, with exciting near-misses from both men. Rodriguez splits the guard repeatedly with jabs, and he uses them to shut down the biggest blows from his opponent. The leg kicks come from both men, but it is only Rodriguez who checks them. Li ducks down and wings a huge right hand, and Rodriguez guards it just in the nick of time. Rodriguez slips and counters, and he keeps his jab in Li’s face one after the next. Li targets the body with a straight right, but it is one-and-done as Rodriguez marks him up with jabs. Rodriguez follows one jab with a left hand, and Li does not react well to it. Li backs off, his volume diminishing, but Rodriguez is unable to find his chin with anything of merit. Li sits down on a right hand, Rodriguez throws back with a vengeance. The slow-paced match comes to a merciful close after 15 minutes, but these two deserve all the props – and Li more than anyone else tonight – for taking this difficult opponent switch in stride.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Jingliang Li via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.
Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.
Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.
Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.
The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!