Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
Career Averages - Navajo Stirling
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-135), Guskov (+114)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both men opening cautiously. Balchowicz is working leg kicks early, but Guskov is answering in kind. Guskov sticks a jab then avoids his opponent’s response. Guskov looks hesitant to engage, respecting Blachowicz’s power. The Pole continues to chip away with periodic low kicks. Blachowicz misses a double jab and Guskov briefly rattles him with a counter offering. A heavy jab from Blachowicz connects. They trade leg kicks. Another low kick from the Pole lands. Guskov responds with an inside leg kick. For the majority of the round, it’s been jabs and leg kicks from both men. Balchowicz pressures and lands a two-punch combination, then goes back to the leg kick. Guskov flurries with a combination late in the period. Balchowicz kicks the body before time expires in a slow-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz comes out pumping his jab before going back to the low kick. Guskov misses a high kick. Another jab-low kick combination lands for Blachowicz, but that’s when Guskov drops him as the Pole is moving backwards. Guskov dives into top position, where he tees off with ground-and-pound. Blachowicz seems to have recovered, as he attempts a heel hook. Blachowicz eats some more ground-and-pound as a trade-off for the leg lock. Guskov frees himself and looks to punish his foe from above. Guskov grinds his forearm into Blachowicz’s face and then drops some heavy elbows. Blachowicz is covering up, but he’s been split open by the onslaught. A methodical Guskov drops more elbows as he moves into half guard. Another elbow draws a visible grimace from the Pole. Blachowicz is just trying to survive the round by holding Guskov close to him. Another series of elbows land for Guskov as the round draws to a close. Blachowicz will survive, but it was one-way traffic.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Guskov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Round 3
The combatants hug at the start of the round. Guskov lands a right hand. Blachowicz targets the legs again, but a quick right hand connects for Guskov in response. Guskov’s left calf is reddened from Blachowicz’s attacks throughout the fight. Blachowicz leaps in and partially lands a left hook. Guskov tags Blachowicz with a couple laser rights, and he’s taking advantage of his speed. Blachowicz plods forward and lands a jab. Another heavy leg kick for the former champ. Another hard right connects for Guskov. Blachowicz is increasing his aggression and he lands some heavy hooks in close. Blachowicz goes back to the leg kick. Guskov seems to have slowed down somewhat in this round. He counters Blachowicz well nonetheless in an exchange. Blachowicz kicks the body. Blachowicz keeps the pressure on and just misses a heavy right hand .The Pole sticks a crisp jab. Guskov’s output is waning down the stretch. Blachowicz lunges in and lands a left hook. Blachowicz is in pursuit and he manages to drop Guskov near the fence in the waning seconds. Guskov gets to his feet and Blachowicz continues to unload until the horn. A great sense of urgency down the stretch from Blachowicz.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (28-28)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov is Declared a Majority Draw (29-28, 28-28, 28-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-265), Blachowicz (+215)
Round 1
Marc Goddard will officiate this light heavyweight showdown. Ulberg lands a low kick and a jab as he circles on the outside. Blachowicz lands a leg kick of his own, but Ulberg snaps off a jab. It’s an extended feeling-out process so far. Ulberg with a leg kick followed by a lead left hand. Blachowicz connects with a heavy leg kick. Ulberg lands a front kick down the middle. A low kick from the Pole has an impact on Ulberg. Blachowicz partially lands a high kick. The ex champ continues to chop away at Ulberg’s legs. Blachowicz moves in with a jab and Ulberg circles out. Ulberg is also staying busy with low kicks. Blachowicz’s appear to have more impact. Ulberg sticks a jab just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz goes right back to work with the low kicks. Ulberg steps in with a punching combination. Ulberg lands a kick to the body and a low kick, then ducks under a power punch from his Polish opponent. Ulberg with a jab and Blachowicz punches the body. Ulberg with more leg kicks. Blachowicz pressures with a couple of power shots, but Ulberg counters effectively and the Pole stumbles away. They trade again and both land. The action is picking up, and Ulberg lands a knee. More low kicks by Ulberg. Blachowicz responds with a heavy outside leg kick. Ulberg lands a lead hook. Ulberg stays busy chipping away at the legs. Blachowicz with another low kick. A solid jab lands for the Pole. Ulberg ends the round probing at the legs.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Round 3
Both men open by attacking the legs, as has been the strategy throughout. Ulberg is first to shoot and he presses his foe into the cage. Blachowicz is too strong and he shrugs it off. Ulberg lands a jab and just misses the mark on a straight right. Another leg kick for Blachowicz. Ulberg answers with a pair of inside low kicks. Blachowicz with a knee and a jab, and Ulberg fires back. Blachowicz charges forward but can’t connect. Blachowicz backs his man up with a jab. But Ulberg returns fire and lands a jab. He follows up with a right hand. Ulberg lands a counter left hook and Blachowicz answers with a body kick. Neither man has been able to separate himself in this fight. Ulberg finds the range on a jab. The Kiwi works the inside and outside of his foe’s leg with kicks. Blachowicz applies pressure down the stretch, but Ulberg might have clipped the Pole with a counter during a final exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Jan Blachowicz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)
Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)
Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 53 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 71 of 93 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 51 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 39 | 58% | 17 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, the main event of UFC 267 is here. A Cinderella story himself, Blachowicz (28-8, 11-5 UFC) will look to keep an iron grip on his throne thanks to his renowned Polish power against fellow Cinderellian fighter Teixeira (32-7, 15-5 UFC). It is feel-good story on both counts between the 38-year-old Blachowicz and the 42-year-old former challenger Teixeira, but one will have to lose when it’s all said and done. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for wherever the fight takes him, and the light heavyweights show each other the utmost of respect, touching gloves before throwing down. Blachowicz leads the dance with a thumping leg kick, and Teixeira ducks down after a right hand to fake an ankle pick. Blachowicz does not bite, and instead kicks the lead calf again. Teixeira swarms with a few punches, and he charges in for a double and lifts the champion off the ground before slamming him to the mat. Teixeira, in the center of the cage, is tightly grasped by Blachowicz’ closed guard. Blachowicz holds on to not allow Teixeira to get off much in the way of ground-and-pound, and he sneaks up a short but effective elbow in a defensive blow. Teixeira calmly starts to work some strikes from on top, not forcing anything or allowing Blachowicz to gain any space to kick off or otherwise fight his way back up to his feet. Teixeira utilizes the can opener, grabbing Blachowicz on the back of his neck and wrenching his head up, in an effort to open the guard up. Blachowicz does not appear to appreciate this, but he does not loosen up his guard posture. The challenger hacks down with a few elbows, each of them landing loudly. Blachowicz stays on his back, riding out this position for most of the round without taking a great deal of damage. Teixeira latches on to the can opener one last time, and Blachowicz wriggles his neck free as the horn blares. When they stand up, Blachowicz acknowledges to Teixeira that the Brazilian won that round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Round 2
The second frame begins as Blachowicz is tentative, jabbing out from a distance while not committing to follow-up strikes. Teixeira charges with strikes, and Blachowicz backs away and trips on the outskirts of the cage. When Teixeira ducks into a takedown after eating a body shot, Blachowicz pulls his leg out with all his might to get away. The Polish fighter scores a solid combination to make Teixeira pay for the try, and he dings him with a sharp uppercut. The Brazilian pursues a takedown, but Blachowicz is ready for this one this time, and he turns his foe around on the fence while starting to land some knees. Blachowicz pushes off and aims an uppercut, and he tries to time another when Teixeira shoots. The shots are more telegraphed, and as Blachowicz tries to counter with another uppercut, a looping left hand catches Blachowicz on the side of the head, hurting the champion. Instead of following up with the strikes, he pursues a single, and he manages to wrestle the champ to his back. Unlike the last round, Teixeira does not stay in guard for long, instead passing to mount like a hot knife through butter. Blachowicz eats shots from on top, and he turns over to surrender his back. Teixeira flattens him out instantly, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke and is ready to set the hook. Crushing the forearm grip with all his might, the choke does not even go under Blachowicz’ chin, squeezing the jaw like a vice. Knowing his time is up, Blachowicz surrenders and lives to fight another day. Unbelievable! At the age of 42, Teixeira is now a UFC champion, and he is the second-oldest champ in UFC history trailing only to Randy Couture at 45. As he says in his post-fight interview, promises done, and he comes home with the belt. He invites likely challenger Jiri Prochazka to the cage to face off with him, and he hopes to meet him in May. Prochazka does not join him in the Octagon, but he does pose in the crowd, excited for the opportunity. In a final moment of pure inspiration, the new champion tells people to never give up on their dreams. Next week, another pair of belts will be on the line at UFC 268 in New York, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Glover Teixeira def. Jan Blachowicz R2 3:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.
Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.
Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.
Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.
Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.
The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.
Navajo Stirling - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-320); Cutelaba (+250)
Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Cutelaba wings an overhand before tying up with Stirling. The Kiswi turns Cutelaba into the fence. Cutelaba is threatening with a guillotine already. The Moldovoan applies squeeze. The combatants go to the mat and Cutelaba tries to roll into mount. Stirling defends and eventually escapes. They’re back up, but Cutelaba tosses his foe to the mat. Cutelaba moves to the back as they stand. Stirling escapes and dodges a high kick. Striling with a jab. A right hand partially lands for Stirling, and Cutelaba pressures forward. Stirling lands a knee and Cutelaba plays possum, feigning injury before swinging heavy leather. Stirling doesn’t overcommit, and he pushes Cutelaba into the fence. Cutelaba gets off the wire and tosses Stirling to the mat. Stirling gets a leg and stands. Cutelaba briefly threatens the neck and then misses a spinning backfist as they separate. Stirling rips the body with a left. Stirling lands a knee as his foe moves forward. Cutelaba clips Stirling with a left hook and then forces a tie-up. Cutelaba lands some moderate knees before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 2
Cutelaba comes out throwing a variety of kicks. They both land to the legs. Stirling lands a right. Cutelaba pressurs and lands a right. Stirling times an elbow. Stirling rips the body and then lands a right hand over the top. Stirling secures a body lock and then drags Cutelaba to the mat. Cutelaba is right back to his feet and he threatens with a kimura. He dups Stirling on the mat and remains committed to the hold. Eventually Stirling frees himself, but he eats a series of punches as he builds back to his feet. Cutelaba executes a mat return, then quickly loses the position. Back at range, Stirling lands a right and a knee before being taken down. Stirling quickly reverses and then stands over a seated Cutelaba, unloading punches and elbows against the fence.
Cutelaba just covers up, absorbing a barrage of unanswered strikes. Hatley lets it go as long as he can before finally stepping in to stop the carnage.
Stirling is now 5-0 in the Octagon.
The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Ion Cutelaba via TKO (Punches and Elbow) R2 3:32
AJ likes Stirling's sharp standup, movement, and takedown defense, expecting him to outpoint Cuțelaba with counters and precision. He thinks Stirling's patient striking and defensive grappling will hold up, leading to a decision win.
AJ sees Navajo Stirling as a bad matchup for Ion Cutelaba due to his technical striking, calm demeanor, and improved takedown defense. He believes Stirling will counter-strike effectively, fend off Cutelaba's power and takedowns, and win decisively. AJ notes that Cutelaba's chaotic style won't bully Stirling, and that Stirling's careful development by the UFC has prepared him well.
AJ picks Navajo Stirling to win, citing his technical striking and defensive soundness. He expects Stirling to pick Cuțelaba apart and win over 1.5 rounds, possibly by decision. He views Stirling as a good prospect at 205.
AJ picks Navajo Stirling, praising his technical striking, takedown defense, and well-rounded game. He notes Cuțelaba is clumsy and inaccurate, while Stirling is accurate and crafty. He expects Stirling to win by decision, possibly with a late finish, and calls him the matador to Cuțelaba's bull.
Angelo picks Navajo Stirling but is hesitant, calling himself a 'hater' of Stirling. He acknowledges Stirling's technical footwork and range management but doubts his danger and finishing ability. He expects Stirling to win by keeping it technical with long strikes, but doesn't think he'll score well in DFS. He also notes Cutelaba's brawling style and finish upside, suggesting Cutelaba is a better underdog than given credit for.
Angelo picks Navajo Stirling but is hesitant, acknowledging that Ion Cuțelaba is a dangerous underdog with power and grappling. He relies on Stirling's footwork and range management to potshot. He is shocked that 84% of Tapology picks Stirling, thinking it should be closer to 50/50.
Angelo believes Stirling will win by decision, noting that Stirling is not the killer advertised and has more decisions than finishes in the UFC. He thinks Cuțelaba has developed durability and the fight will go the distance. He also bets over 1.5 rounds as part of a parlay.
Cody picks Navajo Sterling but is hesitant due to the high price. He acknowledges Cuțelaba's submission threat and inconsistency, but believes Sterling's tactical striking, range management, and cardio will prevail if he survives the first round. He suggests live betting on Sterling if he gets through round one.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Cuțelaba has only beaten the worst level of fighters and falls apart against any elevation above terrible. He points out that Stirling has shown resilience and the ability to fight back, while Cuțelaba finds ways to self-destruct.
Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling to win, acknowledging that Cuțelaba's unorthodox judo-based takedowns could pose problems but ultimately believes Stirling's superior striking, cardio, and ability to defend will prevail. He expects Stirling to win via decision, as Cuțelaba tends to gas out and Stirling hasn't shown finishing ability in the UFC.
Sterling is too disciplined and composed to get caught by Cutelaba's power. He will touch Cutelaba up, stay safe in grappling, and win on the scorecards.
Stirling is technically superior, especially in striking, and has good takedown defense. He should pick apart Cuțelaba, who may become reckless. A decision win is likely, but a late finish is possible.
Paul took a small shot on Cuțelaba by submission at 12-to-1, noting Cuțelaba's early submission wins and the uncertainty around Sterling's grappling. He struggles to back Sterling at -330 and sees value in the prop.
The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling to win via decision. He believes Stirling is a technical long boxer who will use his jab and reach to chip away at Cuțelaba. He notes Cuțelaba comes on hard early but fades, while Stirling's length and conditioning will allow him to take over in later rounds.
Zane picks Stirling because Cuțelaba self-destructs against any fighter who doesn't crumble easily. He notes Stirling fights back well even in bad positions and has never been easy to put away. Zane acknowledges Stirling is raw but believes Cuțelaba's inconsistency will be his downfall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 1 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 90 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Bruno Lopes | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 36 of 71 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bruno Lopes | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 1 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 67 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bruno Lopes | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 63 of 119 | 52% | 30 of 74 | 21 of 27 | 12 of 18 | 43 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 20 |
| Bruno Lopes | 28 of 63 | 44% | 15 of 42 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 12 | 23 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 22 of 54 | 40% | 5 of 28 | 13 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 21 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Lopes | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 41 of 65 | 63% | 25 of 46 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 20 |
| Bruno Lopes | 12 of 27 | 44% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500); Lopes (+375)
Round 1
While the two light heavyweights about to hit the stage came into the promotion with high finish rates, neither man can seem to buy a stoppage since getting here. Stirling (8-0, 3-0 UFC) has earned three straight victories under the UFC banner, but they all came after 15 minutes of combat apiece. Standing across the cage from him will be Lopes (14-2, 1-1 UFC), who had only before gone to a decision twice prior to beating Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his promotional debut last year—Dustin Jacoby punched him out a few months later. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Keith Peterson, who will keep nonsense to a minimum.
They do not touch gloves, as Stirling wants to start off with long, reaching kicks. Lopes chambers his own leg kick that lands with an audible thud, and he tries to offer another but does not put his hips into it. Stirling cannot say the same, slamming his shin into the Brazilian’s calf and welting it up already. They trade these kicks until Stirling mixes up one upstairs, and Lopes is wise to it and parries a jab that follows. They clash together with big swings, with Lopes landing a right hand on the outside. Lopes keeps working the lead leg, and he allows Stirling to come at him so he can lob a counter. Stirling pops Lopes in the chops with a clean left hand, and he pushes out a front kick that gets caught. When he retrieves his leg, he boots Lopes in the face with the other. Lopes catches that one too, and he tries to take the fight down. Stirling retains his balance, so Lopes elbows him in the face.
Lopes chooses to disengage, and he shoots for a double that Stirling sees coming. Stirling elbows him in the face to break off, and he slings a right hand that is ducked in the nick of time. Stirling bullies Lopes to the cage, finding him with his hard swings including a powerful one-two. Lopes ties him up to stop from getting punched in the face for a moment, and Stirling separates and resets. Lopes tries a spinning back elbow when Stirling advances, and he gets kicked in the guts and catches the kick. Stirling springs away to not get taken down, and he lobs a pair of right hands to the head and body. Lopes takes a left hand on the chin before circling, and he catches another kick but lets it go because he cannot do anything with it. Lopes tries to pursue a double, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow and gets kicked in the face. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 2
Lopes strikes first to start off the round, and this results in both men smacking one another around with calf kicks. Stirling breaks the chain with one to the body, and he leans back as the Brazilian loops a left hand at him. Lopes is out of range, slugging at air while he takes body shots. Lopes counters a right hand up top when Stirling goes for a step-in knee, and he attempts a single-leg entry but lets the leg go and resets. Stirling advances, and he walks face-first into a right hand. Stirling chews up the front leg with his calf kicks, and he defends a single and leans against the cage. Lopes wraps an elbow over the top, and he goes for another and is kneed when they break up. As Lopes kicks the leg, Stirling jabs the body, and they clash together. Lopes goes to the well with a spin, but the elbow is out of range. Stirling drives him back with body shots, and he rifles a right hand up top that stings Lopes.
Lopes has to gather his thoughts as a left hand sets him down, and when he gets to his knees, Stirling punishes him with elbows to bowl him back over. Lopes sits up, and Stirling snatches up a guillotine choke, but this only allows Lopes to stand. Stirling knocks Lopes back down, and Lopes survives but is taking serious punishment. Stirling unleashes a flurry of punches but cannot put Lopes away, with Peterson watching on closely. Stirling holds on to the back of Lopes’ right ankle while busting Lopes in the face with his left hand, and he does not punch himself out but is slowly while Lopes’ face is increasingly bloody.
Stirling falls into a high mount, and he beats on the Brazilian with a nasty elbow and a prolonged barrage of punches and hammerfists. An elbow from the Kiwi further slashes Lopes’ face open, and blood sprays from the gash as Stirling drums the wounded man out with a few more punches. Peterson has no choice but to step in
, with Lopes’ visage quickly transforming into that of a horror movie. Not the artsy type either, but rather an 80s slasher where there is more blood than sense. Stirling walks off and shrugs to the camera as if he knew this was going to happen the whole time, and he is now a perfect 9-0 while registering his first stoppage as a UFC athlete.
The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Bruno Lopes R2 4:05 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Navajo Stirling despite previously being a vocal hater. He acknowledges Stirling's kickboxing skills, mobility, and takedown defense, and believes he is the better striker. He expects Stirling to avoid takedowns and win a straightforward decision, though he is not confident in a finish.
Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Bruno Lopes is very hittable and has a poor chin, having been knocked out by Heber and Dustin Jacoby. Stirling is a good kickboxer with elite volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute. Brady believes Stirling will touch Lopes up and finally get his first UFC knockout.
Cody sees Stirling as a rising prospect with improving skills, while Lopes has been knocked out recently. He expects Stirling to win, possibly by KO.
Connor also picks Stirling, agreeing that Lopes is a front runner and that Stirling's wrestling and size will be enough. He notes that Stirling is still raw but has the tools to win.
Daniel expects Stirling to use his speed and length to outpoint Lopes, though he doubts a knockout. He notes Lopes's chin issues and confidence questions after a KO loss.
The host sees massive value on Lopes as a +471 underdog, giving him a 35-40% chance to win. He believes Lopes' relentless grappling and cardio can wear down Sterling, who has shown vulnerability to wrestling and fades in later rounds. Footage shows Sterling getting taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, while Lopes commits fully to takedowns and has excellent chain wrestling. The host acknowledges Lopes is likely to lose but insists the odds are far too wide.
The host is high on Stirling's well-rounded game, noting his kickboxing background and improving grappling. He believes Stirling's defensive grappling will force Lopes to strike, where Stirling will pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. He references Lopes' recent knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby as evidence that Stirling can replicate that success.
Paul agrees, noting Stirling's development and Lopes' chin issues. He thinks Stirling will get the job done.
The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting his size, reach, and undefeated record. He believes Stirling's striking combinations and takedown defense will be key. He mentions that Bruno Lopes has some grappling ability but thinks Stirling's athleticism and system will keep the fight standing. He predicts a finish in the second or third round by TKO.
Zane picks Stirling because Lopes is a front runner who gets run over when not in front, and Stirling has shown good defensive wrestling and ability to get up. He notes that Stirling is still developing but this is a good step-back fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 0 | 81 of 158 | 51% | 101 of 193 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 62 of 111 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 37 of 62 | 59% | 41 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 31 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 23 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 81 of 158 | 51% | 44 of 102 | 35 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 70 of 145 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 43 of 89 | 48% | 21 of 60 | 12 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 39 of 81 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 37 of 62 | 59% | 21 of 37 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 32 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 15 of 33 | 45% | 4 of 17 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 16 of 39 | 41% | 11 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 28 of 57 | 49% | 12 of 36 | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 22 of 37 | 59% | 12 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-240); Bellato (+200)
Round 1
Two light heavyweights who prefer the knockout will square off in the preliminary headliner. Stirling (7-0, 0-0 UFC) out of City Kickboxing has never tasted defeat, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1 NC; 1-0-1, 1 NC UFC) is unbeaten in the Octagon with a fairly unusual three-fight stretch in it. Referee Mike Beltran dons his proverbial hard hat ahead of what should be a striker’s delight, one that commences with no sight of a glove touch.
With Bellato coming at him, Stirling is prepped and ready with long push kicks and straight punches. Bellato swipes at him with a left hook, using it to close the distance between them and tie them up. Bellato stalls out the position in the clinch, getting off a knee or two but finding himself taking some solid elbows up close. The elbows from Stirling allow him to turn the tables and put Bellato’s back to the wall, where he starts beating on his foe with right hands. Stirling tries for a spinning elbow on the break, but it bounces off the shoulder. They trade heavy leg kicks, and it is Bellato who follows with a front kick. Stirling wings a right hand that skims the top of the head, and he plants a one-two down the pipe right after. The City Kickboxing prospect rips the body a few times with his fists, and then aims his kicks to the same spot.
Bellato unloads with power strikes, one of his winging kicks brushing the cup, and nothing happens other than Bellato getting close enough to clinch again. Stirling breaks out of it and resets, reaching a right hand behind the ear. Bellato checks a kick, but a liver kick that follows lands flush. Stirling stays committed to body work even with Bellato headhunting him, and his own offense reminds Bellato that he too can attack the midsection. A few punches to the torso from Bellato lead into a clinch, and like the previous times, Stirling frees himself. Two body shots lead to a pair upstairs, and Stirling opens up with power punches to all targets. Bellato counters with a powerful knee on the jaw, and Stirling reels and then comes back firing with more blows. Before punching himself out, Stirling calms himself down and engages a clinch on his own accord. Bellato sees an opening and spins with a back fist that just misses, and they both flail at one another until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 2
Bellato practically sprints out of his corner to engage, but it is Stirling who has the offense locked and loaded. In rapid succession, the Kiwi fires off a pair of head kicks, and he works the body and ducks when Bellato hurls a counter right hand his way. In a brief clinch, Stirling strings a knee into several power punches up top, and his forward pressure results in him considering a takedown. When Stirling goes for it, he wrenches the Brazilian off his feet and plops him down on the canvas. Landing in half guard, Stirling starts landing strikes, and Bellato complains about a foul he feels he sustained. Beltran tells him to fight on. Stirling slowly but effectively drops down a number of left hands, and Bellato defends himself by gripping hold of Stirling’s wrist.
Bellato recovers full guard, and his own few attacks off his back open up Stirling’s nose and start the blood flowing. Stirling stacks his opponent up to open the guard, and he winds up with a fierce elbow that slashes off the top of the dome. Bellato sits up and explodes to his feet, with Stirling still holding him tightly. Bellato knees the body to break free, and he aims a few more strikes to the midsection to give Stirling something to think about. Stirling, meanwhile, wipes his nose and unloads with massive power punches. Stirling backs off and jams the body with a few kicks, and Bellato loads up on a heavy right hand. Bellato rips a left to the body and a right to the head, and he dodges the Stirling offense and counters with a left up top. When Stirling sells out for a big strike, Bellato takes him to the floor. The tepid round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Round 3
The Brazilian wants to lead the dance, and he walks into a few long punches and ignores them to swing a left hand over the guard. Stirling goes to the body, and Bellato hurls a right hand at his melon. Stirling fakes a takedown, and Bellato does the same thing except he appears to want it after a brief odd clash. They both trade heavy punches, and Stirling gets the worst of it but is not compromised. Bellato takes a jabbing kick to the stomach, and jabs fly from both men. Stirling hunts for a takedown, and Bellato turns him about and rams him into the wall. The two separate, and Bellato keeps after his opponent with jabs and power punches to the ribs. A shot from Bellato follows the left to the body.
Bellato sells out for the takedown, trying several different means including a brief back take where he drags his man down using his own weight against him. “Trator” succeeds in getting Stirling down for a moment or two, but Stirling gets back up. Both men appear quite fatigued, so the action slows to little more than a prolonged, grueling clinch battle. Stirling spins to break, and Bellato awkwardly spins back and has his fist bump off the guard. Bellato shoots, and Stirling shuts it down and lets his hands go. Bellato spins again, eats a counter right hand and then takes a head kick. Stirling nails his foe with a right hand, and Bellato responds with jabs and a failed capoeira kick. The round comes to a close, and scores could be all over the map.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.
Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.
Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.
James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.
James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.
The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.
The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.
Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 1 | 110 of 225 | 48% | 124 of 243 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Ivan Erslan | 0 | 36 of 100 | 36% | 63 of 129 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 31 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ivan Erslan | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Ivan Erslan | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 1 | 60 of 109 | 55% | 66 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Ivan Erslan | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 110 of 225 | 48% | 54 of 147 | 26 of 40 | 30 of 38 | 84 of 181 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 40 |
| Ivan Erslan | 36 of 100 | 36% | 28 of 90 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 31 of 76 | 40% | 2 of 31 | 11 of 20 | 18 of 25 | 31 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ivan Erslan | 12 of 30 | 40% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 19 of 40 | 47% | 4 of 22 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ivan Erslan | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 60 of 109 | 55% | 48 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 34 of 66 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 40 |
| Ivan Erslan | 13 of 36 | 36% | 10 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-298), Erslan (+240)
Round 1
A pair of strikers at 205 pounds will lead off the ESPN portion of the prelims, when unbeaten Kiwi Stirling (6-0, 1-0 UFC) runs into Croatian demolition man Erslan (14-4, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC). The two celebrate 14 knockouts across their 20 combined victories, and referee Erick Philippeaux is well aware that this could end with one crushing blow. Before they try to lop one another’s head off—figuratively, of course—they bump their large fists together. Stirling strikes first with a half-hearted low kick to find his distance, and Erslan comes out firing with two swiping punches that miss the mark. Stirling pitches out a few more kicks to the leg and body, and he aims one high but is out of range. Erslan catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Croatian backs off and surges forward with another pair of punches. Stirling comes up short on a spinning wheel kick, and he settles down and chips away with kicks from both legs. Erslan walks him down calmly, parrying a few punches to get one over the top. Stirling kicks his man in the ribs, and he has a trio of punches not land flush. Stirling does score another body kick, and he jabs and reaches with a lead hook. The body kick is the best weapon for the unbeaten fighter, who keeps Erslan at bay with his longer legs. Erslan whiffs on a big right hand, and Stirling hammers his front leg a few times as Erslan stands awkwardly on it. Erslan swings for the fences with a monster right hand, but it is his more measured hooks that connect. Sterling again cannot find a home for his spin kick, with Erslan in too close range to let it hit him. Erslan’s left hand opens a cut on the inside corner of Stirling’s eyebrow. Stirling goes to the body, and Erslan responds in kind. Stirling keeps chipping away with kicks, and Erslan’s right bicep start to welt up. Stirling jabs from afar a few times, and his leg kick scores more. Erslan pushes him away and backs to the wall, looking for his left hook but not finding it. They both swing hard, and Erslan connects with it better and backs his man off. Stirling kicks his man in the ribcage and has a low kick checked, and Erslan goes to the body and head with counters. Stirling kicks and bangs into the arm that is turning red in a hurry, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Round 2
Erslan rushes out of his corner to engage, and he stings his foe with a right hand but eats one back in response. Erslan suddenly shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and the fans in the building respond by booing loudly. Erslan manages to circle around to the back of his foe, but he cannot keep him there as Stirling turns him about. Stirling lifts Erslan’s leg up and drags him to the floor awkwardly, and it is Erslan who has to fight off the wrestling. Stirling hits a mat return, putting Erslan down lightly and smacking him with a free right hand. Erslan gets to a knee and hits a switch, and suddenly it is him again controlling the grappling. The Croatian fighter gets in a few knees to the side while holding on from the back, leaning heavily on Stirling against the cage. Stirling once more turns him around and this time breaks free, where Erslan quickly punches him square in the face. Stirling responds with body kicks, and he aims a few punches to the ribs for good measure. Erslan comes back over the top with a right hand, and then misses with two subsequent looping hooks. Erslan swings hard but is not able to find his target, and Stirling dances back and kicks him. Stirling shoots, and Erslan pushes him away and nails him with an overhand right. Erslan finds another on the same spot, and a third when Stirling tries to slide to the side. Erslan rips a few body shots and opens up a left hand to the chin, and he backs off when Stirling starts to kick at him. Stirling lunges but misses with a flurry, and he kicks the lead leg and backs off as the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 3
The fighters meet in the center of the cage, and Stirling leads off with slapping kicks to the front leg and side. Erslan looks to sway and avoid jabs, but Stirling still reaches him a few times. Erslan looks for an overhand right counter when the kick comes, and Stirling is wise to it and slides back in the nick of time. Erslan wraps a right hand around the guard as Stirling is ducking, and Stirling gathers himself and kicks a few more times to the lead leg. Erslan plods forward behind his overhand right, and he clips Stirling with one and does not care when Stirling hits him back. Erslan lands a right hand, and Stirling steps in with a knee to the body in a clinch. Stirling surprises Erslan with an uppercut, and he eats a counter but did far more damage with his own blow. Stirling fights behind his jab, and Erslan connects with an overhand right. Stirling crashes the pocket looking for a single, and he bullies the Croatian fighter to the fence. Stirling transitions to a double, and Erslan tosses him aside and catches him with a flush right hand. Stirling shakes it off and comes back at him, only to get tagged with another right up top. Stirling rails his opponent with a one-two that shakes Erslan to his core, who shoots in for a single out of desperation. Stirling stops the takedown attempt and smashes him in the face with an elbow. Erslan is loving this, and he raises his arms in to the air to call on more. Stirling obliges him with several more punches, and he knocks Erslan down to his face. Philippeaux allows things to play out even though Erslan face-planted, and Stirling punches his man in the back of the head and then leaps on top looking for the finish. He pushes Erslan to his back and starts bombarding him with punches, stepping into mount and trying to punch his man out. Time expires before Stirling gets the job done.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Ivan Erslan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
Angelo picks Navajo Sterling but with caution, noting his grappling is not good (taken down three times in last fight) and he was a -1000 favorite who went to decision. He thinks this should be a striking-only matchup where Sterling is the better striker, but warns about betting on him. He criticizes the hype around Sterling and the 'Kiwi bias'.
Big Brady is confident in Navajo Stirling, citing his City Kickboxing background and superior striking. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, as Erslan doesn't wrestle much and Stirling has good takedown defense. He thinks Erslan is hittable and has poor cardio, and predicts Stirling will land a knockout in the second round.
Connor picks Stirling, agreeing that he has a solid technical base and composure. He notes that Erslan is more dangerous than Tuktokos but still prone to being outworked. Connor trusts that Stirling's camp at City Kickboxing will continue to develop his game, and that he can handle Erslan's aggression by staying centered and finding openings.
The host sees this as a perfect matchup for Stirling, who he believes will be the more effective striker against the reckless Erslan. He expects Stirling to stuff Erslan's grappling attempts and land big shots for a knockout victory.
The MMA Guru picks Stirling, praising his composure, frame, and finishing potential. He thinks Erslan is dangerous but will be too aggressive, leaving openings for Stirling's counters. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Stirling's development and ability to handle deep waters.
Zane picks Stirling, citing his fundamentally sound striking and composure. He notes that Erslan is dangerous but self-destructive, and that Stirling's basic process should allow him to piece Erslan up with straight shots. Zane acknowledges that Erslan may have early success but trusts Stirling to adjust and find counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 0 | 78 of 155 | 50% | 99 of 181 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 34 of 93 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 24 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 12 of 37 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 0 | 35 of 63 | 55% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling | 78 of 155 | 50% | 33 of 94 | 37 of 50 | 8 of 11 | 70 of 142 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 32 of 90 | 35% | 18 of 70 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 28 of 80 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navajo Stirling | 21 of 57 | 36% | 8 of 35 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 10 of 24 | 41% | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Navajo Stirling | 22 of 35 | 62% | 8 of 19 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 10 of 35 | 28% | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Navajo Stirling | 35 of 63 | 55% | 17 of 40 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tuco Tokkos | 12 of 31 | 38% | 7 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500), Tokkos (+380)
Round 1
The first main card fight will be overseen by Dan Miragliotta. Stirling takes the center. Tokkos eats a leg kick and struggles to get into striking distance. The two exchange leg kicks. Stirling works his jab and catches a body kick. Both men are staying patient. Stirling is more active with jabs and leg kicks. Tokkos eats a right hand and tries to charge forward but misses. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a front kick to the gut. A nice knee lands for Stirling. Tokkos is hurt and backing up into the fence. A thudding uppercut lands for Stirling, and Tokkos goes to the floor. Stirling lets his opponent up. Tokkos survives the round, but it looks like he has nothing for his opponent.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 2
Tokkos is coming out aggressive to start the second round. Stirling working his jab well. Tokkos goes for a takedown attempt and grabs the back of his opponent while standing. Tokkos is able to ground Stirling but loses the position. Stirling lands a big knee that hurts Tokkos. Standing elbows land for Stirling, who is just leagues better on the feet than his opponent. Tokkos is eating body shots. Stirling gets pushed into the cage by Tokkos, who is looking for another takedown. Stirling is taken down but is able to get back up shortly afterward as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Round 3
Tokkos eats a big left hook. Stirling is the fresher fighter. Tokkos goes for another takedown attempt and pushes Stirling into the cage. Tokkos is deep on a double-leg attempt but loses it. Stirling is now in control as they are clinched. Tokkos reverses but is eating elbows as he attempts to get a takedown. Fans are booing as this has been a dull round. They separate, and Stirling throws a head kick. Stirling is letting his kicks go. Stirling eats two slow leg kicks from Tokkos. A nice head kick from Stirling hurts Tokkos. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a kick to the body. Tokkos looks totally uninterested in fighting and then goes for a takedown as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. George Tokkos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
Angelo picks Stirling because the striking gap is wider than the grappling gap, but he is very hesitant due to unknowns about Stirling's grappling. He notes Stirling is a former kickboxer with meaningful strikes and knees, while Tokkos is a grappler with no power. He strongly advises against betting on a 5-to-1 favorite with only five fights, calling it an unnecessary risk.
Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He is very confident, calling it a setup spot. He notes Stirling has a kickboxing background with great takedown defense, while Tokkos is hittable and chinny. He expects a vicious knockout.
Cody picks Navajo Stirling, citing Tokkos's history of losing as a favorite and his lack of durability. He notes Stirling's striking skills from City Kickboxing and believes he will knock out Tokkos. Cody warns that the line is too high to include in parlays but sees Stirling as a clear winner.
Connor agrees with Zane, predicting Stirling will be a ranked light heavyweight soon and potentially a title contender. He notes that Tokkos is not a threat and that Stirling's only potential issue is early jitters, but he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Navajo Stirling to win by knockout, noting his massive reach (82.7 inches) and kickboxing background. He believes Tokkos is not UFC caliber and will be overwhelmed. Vreeland acknowledges the -800 odds are steep but expects a finish.
Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling via knockout, citing his knowledge of Stirling's camp and belief that Stirling is a much better fighter. He admits he hasn't studied Tokkos much but is confident in Stirling's ability to win decisively.
Tokkos is not considered a UFC-worthy competitor, and Stirling is expected to make that clear by finding a knockout within the first round.
Paul picks Navajo Stirling but prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' under 2.5 rounds. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and expects an early finish. Paul is not keen on the money line due to the high price.
The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting that he has never rated Tuco Tokkos as a prospect. He points to Tokkos' losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mingyang Zhang, as well as unimpressive wins on the regional scene. He acknowledges Stirling is not a top contender but believes he is good enough to beat someone like Tokkos. He calls it a logical pick.
Zane is very confident in Stirling, calling him the best light heavyweight prospect and noting his size, athleticism, and functional City Kickboxing style. He dismisses Tokkos as a can who was melted by Ming-Yang Zhang and brought in to be a stepping stone. Zane expects an annihilation.
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