Career Averages - Jailton Almeida
Career Averages - Derrick Lewis
Jailton Almeida
Derrick Lewis
Jailton Almeida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 50 of 92 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 43 of 93 | 46% | 102 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 6:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 33 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 31 of 67 | 46% | 17 of 50 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 57 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 43 of 93 | 46% | 31 of 77 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 65 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 15 of 35 | 42% | 12 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 18 of 34 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 16 of 34 | 47% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, calling him one of the best wrestling heavyweights ever. He notes Almeida's spectacular takedown execution and believes he will dominate Kuniev on the ground. He mentions that Almeida was robbed in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, where he had 7 takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. He advises jumping on the -220 line before it moves.
Big Brady picks Rizvan Kuniev as a dog, noting that Kuniev stuffed takedowns well against Curtis Blades, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. He believes Almeida has poor cardio and doesn't handle adversity well, and if Kuniev can stuff early takedowns, he will break and finish Almeida. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody also picks Kuniev, highlighting Almeida's lack of size and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's control time doesn't score well with judges, and Kuniev's striking and clinch work should earn him rounds. Cody expects a decision win for Kuniev, with the over being a strong play.
Connor picks Kuniev, citing his solid takedown defense and steady, measured aggression. He believes Kuniev's simple, mistake-free style could be the recipe to handle Almeida, especially if Almeida can't get takedowns. He notes that Almeida's striking is poor and Kuniev could pressure him. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Kuniev's lack of UFC experience.
Lucrative James picks Jailton Almeida to win by submission in round one. He believes Almeida's grappling will be too much for Kuniev, who showed poor takedown defense against Curtis Blades. James notes that Almeida is excellent at taking the back and finishing, while Kuniev is primarily a striker.
The host picks Kuniev by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Kuniev can stop Almeida's takedowns and work back to his feet quickly, then outbox Almeida and take over as Almeida gasses. He notes Kuniev's striking and wrestling are underrated, and that Almeida struggles when he can't get takedowns.
Paul picks Rizvan Kuniev, citing Almeida's struggles with modern judging that favors damage over control time. He notes Kuniev's better boxing and durability, and Almeida's inability to finish or hold down bigger opponents. Paul expects Kuniev to land the more impactful strikes and edge a decision.
The host picks Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. He thinks Almeida's grappling will be too much, and he will out-scramble Kuniev. He notes Kuniev's conditioning may be an issue later in the fight. He expects Almeida to win, possibly boringly, and hopes he gets cut afterwards.
Zane picks Almeida but acknowledges Kuniev's solid defensive wrestling and measured aggression. He notes that Kuniev's performance against Curtis Blades was impressive, but Blades has been disconnected from his wrestling. He thinks Almeida's relentless takedown attempts could overwhelm Kuniev, but if Kuniev stuffs them, Almeida could be in trouble.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 24 of 27 | 88% | 123 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 27 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 10:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 38 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:14 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 77 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 24 of 27 | 88% | 19 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 17 |
| Jailton Almeida | 9 of 10 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 15 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 15 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jailton Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 7 of 8 | 87% | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 5 of 5 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.
Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.
Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.
Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.
The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.
Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.
Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.
The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.
Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.
Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.
Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.
Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.
The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.
Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 9 of 11 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 8 of 8 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 25 | 64% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.
Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.
Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.
Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.
Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 120 of 153 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 1 | 21:10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 27 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 8 | 30 of 41 |
| Derrick Lewis | 20 of 39 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 19 of 29 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 16 of 21 |
| Derrick Lewis | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.
Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.
James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.
Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.
Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.
Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 45 of 57 | 78% | 89 of 110 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 31 of 40 | 77% | 64 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 45 of 57 | 78% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 14 of 17 | 82% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 31 of 40 | 77% | 30 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 37 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.
Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.
Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.
The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.
Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.
Derrick Lewis - Fight History
AJ does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Hokit will likely wrestle Derrick Lewis, but does not state a winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 44 of 62 | 70% | 46 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 32 of 46 | 69% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 44 of 62 | 70% | 35 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 16 |
| Derrick Lewis | 8 of 43 | 18% | 6 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 32 of 46 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 15 |
| Derrick Lewis | 4 of 21 | 19% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)
Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.
Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.
Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.
Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.
James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.
The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.
Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.
The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
| Tallison Teixeira | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-270); Lewis (+225)
Round 1
So far this year, Brazilians in UFC headliners are 0-8 against foreign adversaries—and for the sake of this math, Mackenzie Dern, born in Arizona once sporting a Valley Girl accent, is considered an American. We won’t get into the muddiness of “but Merab Dvalishvili has his American citizenship so technically he’s an American male champ” because ain't nobody got time for that. These two heavyweights sure don’t. If this goes the distance, a lot of parlay anchors will bust. Lewis (28-12, 1 NC; 19-10 UFC) is hanging on to his all-time UFC knockout lead, and he can register one more at the expense of skyscraping Brazilian slugger Teixeira (8-0, 1-0 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog will receive the final assignment of the evening, and he brings the big fellas together to bump their equally big fists together. It’s on with the show.
Teixeira moves himself to the center of the cage, and he blocks a head kick. Teixeira catches him with a left hand directly on the eye socket, and Lewis clutches at it and appears compromised. He might be playing possum, as Lewis unleashes fury in the form of a swarm of looping punches.
Backing Teixeira off with a right, it is his nuclear left hand that sends the 6-foot-7 Brazilian flying down to the floor. “The Black Beast” pounces, delivering a punishing barrage of ground-and-pound that knocks Teixeira’s head around.
Teixeira manages to stand up under fire, although he places every finger in the fence to pull on it as hard as he can to do so. Herzog waves the fight off, and Teixeira pushes on Herzog’s face and is upset about the possibly early stoppage.
The victorious Houstonian takes his shorts off, as has become his trademark, and he throws them out into the crowd. He walks over to Teixeira’s empty corner and mimes himself marking his territory like a beast. He proceeds to remove his groin cup as well, pitching it deep into the audience as there is some fan that goes home with a sweaty, stinky souvenir. Ever the classy gentlemen, he drops trou and moons the crowd. He pulls them back up to march over to UFC chief Dana White, who hands him his cell phone—it is President Donald Trump on the other end. Lewis does not share which words were exchanged, but he does remark, “USA up in this hoe.” When commentator Daniel Cormier asks him what he wants next, Lewis deftly replies “my wife” and says she will be soon subjected to some heavy ground-and-pound. What a guy. When Lewis fights next, you best believe we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Tallison Teixeira R1 0:35 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira based on size and skill, but is very hesitant due to Teixeira's lack of experience (8 fights) and first main event. He thinks Teixeira is faster and can beat Lewis to the punch, but acknowledges Lewis has one-punch power and could freeze Teixeira. He will not bet on the fight.
Big Brady acknowledges Derrick Lewis's power but thinks Tallison Teixeira is much more skilled and durable at this stage. He notes Teixeira is a BJJ black belt with great volume and power, and Lewis is hittable and has been finished often. He expects Teixeira to finish Lewis early, picking a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Teixeira based on the 'vibe' that he is a young, athletic heavyweight with basic boxing fundamentals and a powerful frame. He acknowledges that Teixeira is untested, with no fight lasting more than three minutes, and that heavyweight prospects often flame out. He compares the matchup to a coin flip, noting that Derrick Lewis can still beat anyone he doesn't respect, but Teixeira's size and aggression give him a good chance to put Lewis away early.
The host sees this as a close fight but likes the value on Lewis at +220. He believes Lewis will be the first to crack back with power against Teixeira, who hasn't faced such resistance. He expects Lewis to clip Teixeira's chin and knock him out. The pick is based on Lewis's power and the odds being favorable.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog, citing Teixeira's lack of quality opponents and Lewis's experience and power. He notes Lewis has knocked out top heavyweights like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, and went five rounds with Jailton Almeida. He expects Lewis to mix in grappling and finish Teixeira by TKO in the second or third round, as Teixeira has been hit by lesser fighters and may struggle with the step up in competition.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Teixeira as the young heavyweight on the rise who has the size, athleticism, and basic technical game to put Derrick Lewis away. He notes that Lewis is technically a shambles with poor footwork and looping strikes, making him vulnerable to a confident, aggressive prospect. However, Zane also acknowledges the uncertainty, stating that Teixeira might just be another flash in the pan like Chris Daukas or Tai Tuivasa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:23 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 72 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 48 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 41 of 75 | 54% | 33 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 18 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 27 of 41 | 65% | 16 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 15 of 23 | 65% | 8 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 35 | 48% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 3 | Derrick Lewis | 15 of 23 | 65% | 14 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lewis (-148), Nascimento (+124)
Round 1
The UFC heard the constant cries of fans calling for more heavyweight and middleweight main events and made sure to deliver. Despite one victory in his last five go-rounds, Lewis (27-12, 1 NC; 18-10 UFC) is entering into his 12th UFC headliner. He hunts for a concussive victory to extend his knockout record with the promotion, and he has been matched up against Brazilian up-and-comer Nascimento (11-1, 1 NC; 4-1, 1 NC UFC). With seven combined decision wins in their 38 victories, referee Jason Herzog will likely be more than in-cage decoration before the heavyweight headliner is all said and done. With no bad blood between them, the two large gentlemen totaling 529 pounds are summoned to the middle of the cage to bump their extra-large gloves. It’s on with the show. Lewis says hello with a head kick, and when Nascimento comes in towards him, Lewis threatens with an inside trip takedown. Nascimento keeps to his feet as he absorbs a right hand to the side of the head, and he turns Lewis around to the floor. Lewis hits a trip and slams “Yogi Bear” to the ground. Nascimento gets right back up, and Lewis greets him with a knee to the belly. Nascimento tries to take him down in response, but Lewis chucks him to the wall and knees him a few more times for good measure. Nascimento gives him a few knees back to think about, and Lewis elbows him. Nascimento hangs his hands over the fence until Lewis breaks away, and he sneaks in a left hand on the break. Lewis takes a step back to avoid a low kick, and he fires off a jumping switch kick and a swarm of four huge punches. Nascimento ties him up, and Lewis uppercuts and elbows him. Nascimento trips Lewis up and puts him down to the ground, where he looks to get some strikes going on top. Nascimento works the body and head, and he hacks down with a pair of powerful elbows. The Brazilian hammers Lewis with a few more elbows before stepping over to half guard on the other side. Nascimento slashes with elbows until he steps over to full mount, and Lewis explodes at the right time to turn Nascimento over and put the Brazilian on his back. Nascimento clings to his man, holding on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the middle, and Lewis walks through a low kick to sling two hooks. Nascimento gets off a leg kick, and he walks face-first into a huge right hook from “The Black Beast.” Lewis slugs away until the two end up against the wall, and Nascimento holds on to prevent further offense. Lewis thinks about another takedown as they knee one another in the tie-up, and they jockey for position on the fence. Lewis tries to throw his foe down, but Nascimento keeps his balance and stays upright. Nascimento touches Lewis four times, and Lewis drills him with one far more powerful uppercut. Lewis flirts with another trip, and he lets go of the clinch to unleash a series of hammers. Lewis blasts Nascimento with six punches, and Nascimento desperately clings to him to stop him from landing more. Lewis gets enough space to slash an elbow up top, and he leans on Nascimento. Lewis elbows Nascimento and clobbers the Brazilian with some more heavy punches, and he tries a trip but falls over and gives up his back. Nascimento circles around to take his back, and he gets a hook in. Lewis hand-fights to prevent a submission from coming together, and they turn at the same time so that Lewis is on his back while Nascimento is in half guard. Nascimento grinds down with his elbow immediately, and he sits up and slams it down on Lewis’ face a few times. Nascimento remains on top until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Round 3
The heavyweights lumber towards one another, and Lewis tosses out a slow low kick and a one-two that all comes up short. A jumping switch kick from “The Black Beast” slaps into the side, and he measures himself and jumps with a knee. This time, Nascimento is ready for this and counters.
Lewis gathers himself and unleashes hell with a monstrous one-two that separates Nascimento from his senses. Nascimento, barely still conscious, clings to Lewis’ leg in an attempt to show signs of life to Herzog. Lewis hammerfists Nascimento, turning a bit so that he can get a better angle and pound the fight out with vicious power punches.
After around a dozen punctuating blows, Herzog has seen enough, and the UFC’s all-time knockout leader has just gained one more on his mighty ledger. Lewis drops down to his celebratory predator position, and takes his shorts off and fans Nascimento with them. Lewis flops to his back, and he takes his cup out of his undergarments and throws it at the media row—an undisclosed media member catches the groin cup, and he will now have to wash his hands thoroughly. Lewis is not done yet, as he motions to the crowd that he wants to take off his last remaining garb of clothing. After tossing his gloves into the audience, he pulls his shorts down to moon the fans. In his triumphant post-fight interview, Lewis says he’s “getting too old for this s--t” and that commentator Michael Bisping promised him a drink six years ago. Bisping tells Lewis that drinks on him tonight. Next week, the UFC takes back to the Apex, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Rodrigo Nascimento R3 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento as an underdog, expecting him to grapple heavily and win a boring decision. He notes Nascimento's path to victory is closing distance, holding Lewis against the cage, and taking him down. He acknowledges Lewis's power and durability but believes Nascimento can fight a perfect 25 minutes. He is surprised Lewis is the favorite given his 1-4 record in his last five.
Big Brady picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Rodrigo Nascimento in the first round. He notes that Lewis typically picks against Lewis but believes Nascimento is unimpressive, having gone life-and-death with Dontale Mayes and taken Alexey Oleinik to a split decision. He thinks Lewis just needs one big shot and that Nascimento is hittable. He questions if Nascimento will wrestle, as he didn't against Mayes, but expects Lewis to land a knockout.
Cody picks Derrick Lewis, citing Lewis's insane power and ability to get up from takedowns despite a wonky get-up game. He notes that Lewis has a history of losing early rounds but finishing late, as seen against Volkov and Pesta. He believes Nascimento is slow, not durable, and lacks the wrestling to keep Lewis down. Cody suggests Lewis by KO is the most likely outcome but recommends the moneyline for safety.
Daniel Vreeland picks Derrick Lewis, citing his status as the all-time KO leader in the UFC and his ability to explode up from bad positions. He notes that Lewis has to win by knockout, but he leads the UFC in that category. He also mentions that Nascimento has shown heart but that Lewis doesn't often give second chances.
The host picks Nascimento to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lewis is knockout-or-bust and that Nascimento's takedown game and top control should be decisive. He expects Nascimento to get the fight to the ground and find a finish. He advises against betting Lewis as a favorite and suggests waiting for a better number on Nascimento.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Derrick Lewis. He emphasizes that Lewis can lose early rounds but still knock out opponents late, referencing the Volkov and Pesta fights. He notes that Nascimento has poor takedown accuracy (33%) and has struggled against lesser competition. Paul suggests that if Lewis gets taken down early, the live betting line could offer value. He recommends the moneyline over prop bets due to the uncertainty of round.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis over Rodrigo Nascimento, arguing that Nascimento has never succeeded in grappling against any opponent and that his only win is against Alan Baudot (overturned). He notes that Lewis has been in big spots while this is Nascimento's first main event. He dismisses Nascimento's chances on the feet, saying if you think he'll succeed there, you're guessing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 120 of 153 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 1 | 21:10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 27 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 8 | 30 of 41 |
| Derrick Lewis | 20 of 39 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 19 of 29 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 16 of 21 |
| Derrick Lewis | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Lewis | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Marcos Rogério de Lima | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)
Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.
The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.
Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.
Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.
James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.
De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.
Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)
Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.
The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.
Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.
Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-125), Lewis (+105)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when this featured heavyweight fight was booked. One man holds the promotion’s all-time knockout record, while the other is a sturdy Russian striker who has won his last three with his fists. Lewis (26-9, 1 NC; 17-7 UFC) who likely will end the night with the biggest pop from the crowd, will try to get back on track after a stunning knockout against the stoic Pavlovich (15-1, 3-1 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his wits about him at all times, lest he get clipped by an errant blow, as fighters sporting knockout rates of 80% or higher are about to clash in front of his eyes. Lewis trots out of his corner and offers a glove touch, and it is accepted as the “USA” chants rain down in support of him. Lewis starts with a leg kick, and Pavlovich strides forward and sticks out a jab. Lewis does not bite on any feints, and he scores with a big left hand. They proceed to start slugging it out, and Lewis gets rocked with a right hand on the jaw. The Russian, seeing that Lewis got tagged, cracks Lewis with an uppercut and a right hand that knocks Lewis face-first into the fencing. Lewis backpedals, and Pavlovich gives chase and bombards him with punches. Lewis bends over to avoid the blows, and Pavlovich slugs him with several punches to force Lewis to fall forward and bonk his head on the mat. Lewis springs right back up, and Miragliotta intervenes to stop the fight, clearly seeing something others did not see as Lewis protests the stoppage immediately. The fans are outraged by what they believe to be an early stoppage, and Lewis may have been in trouble but he appeared to have his wits about him given his incensed reaction. Regardless of the feelings on the finishing sequence, Pavlovich has just officially recorded the biggest win of his career in hostile territory. Big fights almost certainly loom for the man out of Eagles MMA.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Derrick Lewis R1 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout. He cites Pavlovich's youth, reach advantage, and high volume striking. He notes Lewis has been finished in most of his losses and Pavlovich has power. He acknowledges Lewis can never be counted out but leans toward Pavlovich landing first.
Cody leans Pavlovich, noting his physical attributes: 84-inch reach, power, and youth. He acknowledges the unknown of Pavlovich's cardio beyond the first round, as all his UFC wins are first-round finishes. He also notes that Pavlovich is a wrestler but chooses to stand and bang, which could be dangerous against Lewis. He thinks Pavlovich's speed and boxing combinations will allow him to hit Lewis before Lewis can counter. He also mentions that Lewis is on the downswing, older, and less motivated.
Daniel likes Pavlovich's youth, output, size, and momentum after three straight wins. He notes Pavlovich's 5-inch reach advantage and his ability to flow punches into kicks. He acknowledges the risk of Lewis' one-punch knockout power, calling Lewis the greatest knockout artist in heavyweight history. He mentions Lewis' age (37), back problems, and tendency to sometimes not show up. He also notes that Lewis has lost in Texas before. He bet Pavlovich at plus 100 and is riding with it, but only one unit due to the volatility.
Preet picks Lewis, believing he will land his hammer and knock out Pavlovich in the first round. He notes Lewis's nuclear power and desire to make up for his loss to Tai Tuivasa. He thinks the odds are influenced by recency bias and that Lewis's Texas pride will drive him. He calls the fight volatile and prefers plus money on either side.
Paul picks Pavlovich but calls it a coin flip. He notes that neither fighter has much appetite for grappling and they will stand in the center. He mentions that Pavlovich has taken less punishment over his career and that Lewis is open to leg kicks and body shots, but Pavlovich is a head hunter. He thinks Pavlovich's reach and power are advantages, but he wouldn't be shocked if Lewis knocks him out. He also notes that Lewis is fighting in Texas and has a history of losing at home.
The MMA Guru predicts Sergei Pavlovich by first-round KO. He expects Pavlovich to land big jabs, push Lewis against the cage with knees, and eventually land a right hand that stuns Lewis. Pavlovich will follow up with ground-and-pound for the TKO. The Guru emphasizes Pavlovich's power and pressure.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
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