UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 246 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 6"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rodrigo Nascimento
3.71 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.34 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Don'Tale Mayes
3.22 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.61 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Rodrigo Nascimento
Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetWay +240
Decision
BetRivers +275
Don'Tale Mayes
Moneyline
BetMGM +175
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +400
Rodrigo Nascimento - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 45 of 92 48% 87 of 135 6 of 10 60% 1 0 7:33
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 31 of 91 34% 48 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 36 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:47
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 1 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 28 60% 26 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:46
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 34 29% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 26 of 59 44% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 45 of 92 48% 37 of 82 3 of 5 5 of 5 39 of 79 4 of 8 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 31 of 91 34% 19 of 77 7 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 28 60% 14 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 34 29% 7 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 26 of 59 44% 21 of 54 1 of 1 4 of 4 24 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 56 35% 12 of 47 3 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.

bet on Romanov at +115
"I did bet on him at plus 115 I just saw the underdog money I believe in them I am a simp for wrestlers just a FYI so you know love it hate it tail it fade it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.

submission in round 2
"I got to go naso here just based out the fact that he is a BJJ black belt... I'll take naso second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.

"I think Romanov can just strictly win a striking fight and I think he can mix in a few takedowns along the way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.

"I'm GNA pick uh Nasim Mena"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.

finish late
"I believe Nascimento will be able to stay out of too much danger allowing him to pull away in the second and third rounds and probably getting a finish late."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.

"I'll side with Romanov and the fact that he should be able to dictate range of this fight if he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.

TKO early, maybe first round finish, good odds
"I'm going to go with Alexander Romanov here to get it done over Rodrigo and asento maybe by TKO early or maybe a finish in the first round might be some good odds here"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R3 0:49 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 41 of 75 54% 47 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:23
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 27 of 41 65% 72 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 9 of 17 52% 15 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:40
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 23 65% 48 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
2 Derrick Lewis 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:35
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 12 of 15 80% 24 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
3 Derrick Lewis 1 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 41 of 75 54% 33 of 65 8 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 41 13 of 16 13 of 18
Rodrigo Nascimento 27 of 41 65% 16 of 30 7 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 20 6 of 6 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 9 of 17 52% 5 of 11 4 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 2
Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 23 65% 8 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 10 4 of 4 7 of 9
2 Derrick Lewis 17 of 35 48% 14 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 24 8 of 11 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 6
3 Derrick Lewis 15 of 23 65% 14 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 16
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lewis (-148), Nascimento (+124)

Round 1
The UFC heard the constant cries of fans calling for more heavyweight and middleweight main events and made sure to deliver. Despite one victory in his last five go-rounds, Lewis (27-12, 1 NC; 18-10 UFC) is entering into his 12th UFC headliner. He hunts for a concussive victory to extend his knockout record with the promotion, and he has been matched up against Brazilian up-and-comer Nascimento (11-1, 1 NC; 4-1, 1 NC UFC). With seven combined decision wins in their 38 victories, referee Jason Herzog will likely be more than in-cage decoration before the heavyweight headliner is all said and done. With no bad blood between them, the two large gentlemen totaling 529 pounds are summoned to the middle of the cage to bump their extra-large gloves. It’s on with the show. Lewis says hello with a head kick, and when Nascimento comes in towards him, Lewis threatens with an inside trip takedown. Nascimento keeps to his feet as he absorbs a right hand to the side of the head, and he turns Lewis around to the floor. Lewis hits a trip and slams “Yogi Bear” to the ground. Nascimento gets right back up, and Lewis greets him with a knee to the belly. Nascimento tries to take him down in response, but Lewis chucks him to the wall and knees him a few more times for good measure. Nascimento gives him a few knees back to think about, and Lewis elbows him. Nascimento hangs his hands over the fence until Lewis breaks away, and he sneaks in a left hand on the break. Lewis takes a step back to avoid a low kick, and he fires off a jumping switch kick and a swarm of four huge punches. Nascimento ties him up, and Lewis uppercuts and elbows him. Nascimento trips Lewis up and puts him down to the ground, where he looks to get some strikes going on top. Nascimento works the body and head, and he hacks down with a pair of powerful elbows. The Brazilian hammers Lewis with a few more elbows before stepping over to half guard on the other side. Nascimento slashes with elbows until he steps over to full mount, and Lewis explodes at the right time to turn Nascimento over and put the Brazilian on his back. Nascimento clings to his man, holding on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the middle, and Lewis walks through a low kick to sling two hooks. Nascimento gets off a leg kick, and he walks face-first into a huge right hook from “The Black Beast.” Lewis slugs away until the two end up against the wall, and Nascimento holds on to prevent further offense. Lewis thinks about another takedown as they knee one another in the tie-up, and they jockey for position on the fence. Lewis tries to throw his foe down, but Nascimento keeps his balance and stays upright. Nascimento touches Lewis four times, and Lewis drills him with one far more powerful uppercut. Lewis flirts with another trip, and he lets go of the clinch to unleash a series of hammers. Lewis blasts Nascimento with six punches, and Nascimento desperately clings to him to stop him from landing more. Lewis gets enough space to slash an elbow up top, and he leans on Nascimento. Lewis elbows Nascimento and clobbers the Brazilian with some more heavy punches, and he tries a trip but falls over and gives up his back. Nascimento circles around to take his back, and he gets a hook in. Lewis hand-fights to prevent a submission from coming together, and they turn at the same time so that Lewis is on his back while Nascimento is in half guard. Nascimento grinds down with his elbow immediately, and he sits up and slams it down on Lewis’ face a few times. Nascimento remains on top until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis

Round 3
The heavyweights lumber towards one another, and Lewis tosses out a slow low kick and a one-two that all comes up short. A jumping switch kick from “The Black Beast” slaps into the side, and he measures himself and jumps with a knee. This time, Nascimento is ready for this and counters.
Lewis gathers himself and unleashes hell with a monstrous one-two that separates Nascimento from his senses. Nascimento, barely still conscious, clings to Lewis’ leg in an attempt to show signs of life to Herzog. Lewis hammerfists Nascimento, turning a bit so that he can get a better angle and pound the fight out with vicious power punches.
After around a dozen punctuating blows, Herzog has seen enough, and the UFC’s all-time knockout leader has just gained one more on his mighty ledger. Lewis drops down to his celebratory predator position, and takes his shorts off and fans Nascimento with them. Lewis flops to his back, and he takes his cup out of his undergarments and throws it at the media row—an undisclosed media member catches the groin cup, and he will now have to wash his hands thoroughly. Lewis is not done yet, as he motions to the crowd that he wants to take off his last remaining garb of clothing. After tossing his gloves into the audience, he pulls his shorts down to moon the fans. In his triumphant post-fight interview, Lewis says he’s “getting too old for this s--t” and that commentator Michael Bisping promised him a drink six years ago. Bisping tells Lewis that drinks on him tonight. Next week, the UFC takes back to the Apex, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Rodrigo Nascimento R3 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento as an underdog, expecting him to grapple heavily and win a boring decision. He notes Nascimento's path to victory is closing distance, holding Lewis against the cage, and taking him down. He acknowledges Lewis's power and durability but believes Nascimento can fight a perfect 25 minutes. He is surprised Lewis is the favorite given his 1-4 record in his last five.

"I think that Rodrigo naso is going to win an insanely boring fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Big Brady picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Rodrigo Nascimento in the first round. He notes that Lewis typically picks against Lewis but believes Nascimento is unimpressive, having gone life-and-death with Dontale Mayes and taken Alexey Oleinik to a split decision. He thinks Lewis just needs one big shot and that Nascimento is hittable. He questions if Nascimento will wrestle, as he didn't against Mayes, but expects Lewis to land a knockout.

"give me Derrick Lewis by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Derrick Lewis, citing Lewis's insane power and ability to get up from takedowns despite a wonky get-up game. He notes that Lewis has a history of losing early rounds but finishing late, as seen against Volkov and Pesta. He believes Nascimento is slow, not durable, and lacks the wrestling to keep Lewis down. Cody suggests Lewis by KO is the most likely outcome but recommends the moneyline for safety.

Lewis by KO is the official prediction; moneyline is safer; live betting opportunity if Lewis loses early rounds
"I think Lewis chalk here is probably yeah is definitely the play like I think it's uh Lewis for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Vreeland picks Derrick Lewis, citing his status as the all-time KO leader in the UFC and his ability to explode up from bad positions. He notes that Lewis has to win by knockout, but he leads the UFC in that category. He also mentions that Nascimento has shown heart but that Lewis doesn't often give second chances.

by KO
"I think there's a very good chance he gets it done here by knockout as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Nascimento to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lewis is knockout-or-bust and that Nascimento's takedown game and top control should be decisive. He expects Nascimento to get the fight to the ground and find a finish. He advises against betting Lewis as a favorite and suggests waiting for a better number on Nascimento.

Nascimento by submission; waiting for better odds
"I'm going to go naso naso by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Derrick Lewis. He emphasizes that Lewis can lose early rounds but still knock out opponents late, referencing the Volkov and Pesta fights. He notes that Nascimento has poor takedown accuracy (33%) and has struggled against lesser competition. Paul suggests that if Lewis gets taken down early, the live betting line could offer value. He recommends the moneyline over prop bets due to the uncertainty of round.

Live betting opportunity if Lewis loses early rounds; moneyline is safer
"I got Derrick Lewis for much of the same reasons you do thing is is I think you might be able to get a much better live betting price on this Lewis"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis over Rodrigo Nascimento, arguing that Nascimento has never succeeded in grappling against any opponent and that his only win is against Alan Baudot (overturned). He notes that Lewis has been in big spots while this is Nascimento's first main event. He dismisses Nascimento's chances on the feet, saying if you think he'll succeed there, you're guessing.

"I'm going to go with Derrick Lewis beating Rodrigo ascento."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 70 of 154 45% 91 of 180 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:21
Don'Tale Mayes 0 79 of 159 49% 105 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 33 of 69 47% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 60 46% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 40 50% 30 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 23 of 50 46% 36 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 17 of 45 37% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 49 57% 34 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 70 of 154 45% 51 of 132 9 of 11 10 of 11 58 of 134 12 of 20 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 79 of 159 49% 39 of 103 30 of 44 10 of 12 55 of 128 24 of 31 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 33 of 69 47% 28 of 64 2 of 2 3 of 3 30 of 61 3 of 8 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 60 46% 14 of 36 10 of 18 4 of 6 21 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 40 50% 13 of 33 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 23 of 50 46% 13 of 36 9 of 13 1 of 1 12 of 37 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 17 of 45 37% 10 of 35 4 of 6 3 of 4 13 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 49 57% 12 of 31 11 of 13 5 of 5 22 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

would bet over 1.5 rounds if line is offered
"Rodrigo is going to be the pick I trust him to come forward I trust him to wrestle I trust him to do all those things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

"give me an awesome minute to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

"I'm gonna go Rodrigo Nascimento here... I still think Rodrigo Nascimento is better than this man and for that reason I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

"I think d ma is I think the line's a little bit wide but I'm not massively passionate about this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Rodrigo naso FAA... I think the grapp is going to be the difference here... 2928 decision"
WIN vs Ilir Latifi
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 49 of 77 63% 76 of 105 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:50
Ilir Latifi 0 68 of 152 44% 76 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ilir Latifi 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 11 of 17 64% 38 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
Ilir Latifi 0 15 of 36 41% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:38
Ilir Latifi 0 19 of 43 44% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 49 of 77 63% 20 of 42 18 of 22 11 of 13 46 of 72 1 of 3 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 68 of 152 44% 51 of 122 10 of 21 7 of 9 61 of 145 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 28 of 44 63% 8 of 20 13 of 16 7 of 8 27 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 34 of 73 46% 26 of 60 7 of 12 1 of 1 29 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 11 of 17 64% 5 of 10 3 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 1 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 15 of 36 41% 10 of 28 1 of 2 4 of 6 14 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 16 62% 7 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 19 of 43 44% 15 of 34 2 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento because he believes Latifi is not fully committed, having retired in his last fight and now returning for a paycheck. He thinks Nascimento is younger, hungrier, bigger, and more athletic, and should be able to defend takedowns and get his own. He has a 1-unit moneyline bet on Nascimento at -155 but expresses some buyer's remorse, acknowledging Latifi could be boring and lay on top.

1 unit moneyline bet at -155
"I like the much larger NASA Mento to defend takedowns touch latifi get him flustered and then get his own takedowns I do have a one unit moneyline bet on NASA mental at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by decision. He cites Nascimento's youth, size, reach advantage, and better striking volume. He expects Nascimento to stuff most of Latifi's takedowns and outwork him on the feet. He notes Latifi is undersized for heavyweight and does little offensively. However, he calls it a low-level heavyweight fight and doesn't want much action on it.

decision
"give me an awesome Mentor I'll take him to win by like a greasy greasy decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento but is wary of the price. He notes Latifi's takedown-and-hold style could be effective, but Nascimento's size and reach should allow him to win the striking exchanges. He calls it a greasy heavyweight fight and would take Latifi at +200 in a prop bet.

would take Latifi at +200 in a two-to-one prop
"I will take NASA menu but if someone was to offer me a two to one chewy bet."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Connor picks Latifi, agreeing that he won't get out-wrestled and that Nascimento is not very good. He notes that Latifi has beaten similar opponents and that Nascimento's boxing is okay but he is slow and hittable. Connor is confident in Latifi's wrestling and ability to make fights ugly.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi leans toward Rodrigo Nascimento due to youth, size, and volume advantage. He notes Nascimento has better volume and is 10 years younger, but questions his chin and takedown defense, which hasn't been tested. He recalls Nascimento struggling against Alan Baudot. He thinks Latifi is on his way out but acknowledges Latifi's better defense and takedown threat. He picks Nascimento but is not confident.

"I'm a lean nasimento just because of the youth and the upside"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing his greater motivation and intention to advance his career. He expects Nascimento to use leg kicks and striking to stay away from Latifi's power, then wear him down in the clinch and eventually control him on the ground. He predicts a decision win, noting the over might be a good play.

"I'm gonna go with the guy that has more intentions on trying to take his career to the next level and that's Rodrigo nacimento"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, expecting him to pick Latifi apart at range. He notes Latifi's low striking volume and age, and thinks Nascimento's reach and size will be decisive. He is not betting but picks Nascimento.

"NASA Mento is going to be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru finds this fight difficult to predict but sides with Rodrigo Nascimento. He notes Ilir Latifi has teased retirement and is often injured, which makes him unreliable. He believes Nascimento is the better grappler and has decent stand-up, and expects Latifi to expend energy early trying to take him down. He predicts a third-round exhaustion-based TKO where Nascimento stuffs takedowns and batters Latifi against the cage.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go Rodrigo nascarmento for here ... getting a third round exhaustion-based TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Zane picks Latifi, noting that he is hard to out-wrestle and has beaten technically superior boxers. He believes Latifi can out-wrestle Nascimento and that Nascimento's success comes from out-wrestling others, which won't work against Latifi. Zane acknowledges Latifi is 40 but says he is a great athlete for heavyweight and has a long tail.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
WIN vs Tanner Boser
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 62 of 115 53% 163 of 220 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:58
Tanner Boser 0 36 of 86 41% 91 of 149 3 of 7 42% 1 0 8:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 23 65% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:58
Tanner Boser 0 9 of 21 42% 37 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 32 of 57 56% 42 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tanner Boser 0 15 of 37 40% 18 of 41 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:48
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 35 42% 90 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tanner Boser 0 12 of 28 42% 36 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 62 of 115 53% 40 of 87 13 of 16 9 of 12 59 of 112 1 of 1 2 of 2
Tanner Boser 36 of 86 41% 32 of 81 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 80 4 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 23 65% 10 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 12 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2
Tanner Boser 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 32 of 57 56% 20 of 42 6 of 7 6 of 8 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 15 of 37 40% 15 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 35 42% 10 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 12 of 28 42% 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tanner Boser vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Boser (-165), Nascimento (+140)

Round 1
Heavyweights take center stage for the only time tonight, with two mid-range competitors in the division that are a couple wins away from a number next to their name. Boser (20-8-1, 4-3 UFC) recently ended a skid by punching out Ovince St. Preux, while Nascimento (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1, 1 NC UFC) thought he was going to do the same against Alan Baudot, only to get flagged for Ritalin. Octagon ranger Mark Smith may get a workout trying to dodge the punches and kicks from these fighters, who have no plan in touching gloves. Nascimento works his way in, and he walks right into a right hand from the Canadian. Nascimento fires back with a clubbing left hand, and he follows it with another that knocks his opponent back. “Yogi Bear” shoots for a takedown, and he elects to lift Boser up in the air and deposit him to the mat not-so-gingerly. Nascimento lands in half guard, and he isolates the left wrist with a two-on-one wrist control in an attempt to pass. Boser does not fall for it, and he recovers his guard, so Nascimento thanks him with several heavy punches on the side. Boser smacks Nascimento a few times from his back to keep him honest, and he is hanging on tight in hopes of a referee standup. Boser has his hands clasped around the waist, and this prohibits Nascimento from getting any significant leverage to drop down noteworthy ground-and-pound. Boser explodes in hopes of bucking the larger man off his hips, but when that does not succeed, he sucks Nascimento back into his guard. Smith asks the Brazilian to keep working or he will lose the position, and Boser attempts multiple times to scramble. The Canadian works his way towards the wall, and he spins through a back take attempt to drill Nascimento with a few left hands. Nascimento stands up with his back to the wire, and he gets uppercutted before Boser pushes off. Boser sticks and moves with jabs and a leg kick, but one overhand right from Nascimento shakes Boser up. Boser decides to clinch up again to stop these strikes from landing, and he presses forward with his shoulder on the chest to keep Nascimento pinned. Boser sneaks an elbow up to break, and he kicks the body when they separate. Nascimento fires off a high kick that misses the mark, and he counters a leg kick with a pair of swatting hooks. Boser rings Nascimento’s bell with a right hand, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
Nascimento is the immediate aggressor as he marches forward to engage, and it is Boser who lands first with two looping punches. Boser fires off a leg kick, Nascimento does the same, and the power of Nascimento is giving Boser some issues. Boser is the sharper striker, with jabs and straighter punches, but the looping strikes from Nascimento are knocking the Canadian back even when guarded. Boser sticks the jab and wings a hook, and Nascimento answers him with the same blow. Boser snaps out several more jabs, and he has a kick checked. Boser punches the body and remains mobile, and he staggers Nascimento with a left hand. Boser loads up on several more punches that careen off the guard, and he backs Nascimento up with his barrage. Boser does not burn himself up or empty the gas tank searching for a finish, and he goes back to his rhythm that includes stance switches and active movement. “Yogi Bear” lumbers forward, lobbing picnic baskets that are his massive fists, and Boser takes a few on the chin but avoids the others. The forward momentum from Nascimento allows him to dump Boser down to the ground, and he falls forward and into a back take opportunity. Boser defends his neck, but he sits up and punches behind his head. As he does this, Nascimento snakes the arm around and ties up the rear-naked choke. Boser signals to Smith that he is fine, and he spins around to his back to escape the choke. Nascimento attempts to move from half guard to the mount position, and Boser stops him from doing so and spams short punches. Nascimento lands a pair of blows as he rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Boser

Round 3
The Brazilian starts out in an effort to stalk Boser down and possibly close the distance for a takedown, but Boser is on his bike. Nascimento is slower but still lands a few punches, while Boser slips and jabs him. Boser gets caught with a short hook as he tries to get in his groove, and Nascimento changes levels to secure a tackling takedown. Boser hooks his arm over the fence and is not called on it, but it does not prevent him from getting put on his back. Nascimento smothers from on top, with Boser’s guard closed, and Nascimento occasionally gets some strikes going from on top. The Brazilian shifts to half guard, and Smith tells him to start working. Nascimento hangs out on top and scores a few punches before grabbing Boser’s left leg and holding it up strangely. Boser tries to burst out of the posture, but he does not have the energy or power to get the man 30-something pounds heavier off of him. Nascimento lands a single right hand in hopes of staving Smith off, and Boser recovers his guard. The Brazilian stays pinned to Boser like a cheap suit, occasionally smacking him with a closed fist, but doing little in the way of damaging ground strikes. Smith is watching closely, and he intervenes to stand them up with 35 seconds left in the fight. Boser climbs to his feet and starts throwing bombs, and he drills Nascimento with an uppercut when Nascimento shoots for a takedown. Boser hurts the Brazilian with a combination, and he tries to follow it with a head kick. Nascimento responds with a knee to the body, and Boser chases him down and swings everything he has with several punches until the grueling matchup comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Rodrigo Nascimento def. Tanner Boser via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Angelo picks Boser, citing his athleticism and striking, but acknowledges Nascimento's size and grappling edge. He notes that Boser has been bullied by bigger wrestlers before, but Nascimento's layoff may help Boser. Angelo is hesitant and does not recommend betting on this fight.

No bet recommended.
"i like tanner boser here to get the win uh this is a tough tough fight to pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady leans with Rodrigo Nascimento to win by first-round submission. He views this as a striker vs. grappler matchup: Boser has the clear striking advantage, while Nascimento is a BJJ black belt with slick submissions. Brady notes that Boser has struggled when taken down (e.g., against Ilir Latifi) and may not have a good get-up game. He also mentions that Nascimento is the younger fighter (29) and trains at American Top Team. However, Brady acknowledges that if Nascimento cannot get the takedown, Boser could knock him out. He calls the line 50/50.

first round submission
"i'll say nascimento wins by first round submission against tanner boza"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Cody thinks Boser is faster, more mobile, and has better cardio. He notes Nascimento's poor performances against Chris Daukaus and Alan Baudot, and that Boser can out-volume him. However, he cautions that heavyweight fights are volatile and Boser has been off for 15 months.

"i'm expecting to see a lot just more improvements over tanner poser overall"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Daniel Levi leans Tanner Boser but is not confident. He notes Boser's volume striking and durability, but worries about Nascimento's jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. He thinks Boser can piece him up on the feet, but Nascimento has a reach advantage and a questionable chin. He does not bet due to the uncertainty.

"I'm a lean bozer but i'm not sure man i really don't know"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Jacob picks Boser, believing his speed and footwork will keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He notes that Nascimento needs takedowns but may not be quick enough to close the distance. Jacob warns against betting on heavyweights but thinks Boser wins a striking battle.

Advises not to bet on heavyweights.
"i think this is quite simply tanner keeps his distance in and out is able to outstrike rodrigo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Nascimento is the bigger man and has a clear grappling advantage. Boser is a technical striker but struggles to get back to his feet when taken down, as seen in the Latifi fight. Nascimento should drag Boser to the ground and control him for 15 minutes. Boser's recent knockout power is a threat, but Nascimento's size and pressure should be enough to grind out a decision.

Nascimento by decision at +700 is live
"I think that nasamento can get a hold of him drag him to the ground and from there I think he's going to be too heavy and too difficult to get up from under so give me nasamento"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Paul agrees, noting Boser's high volume and that Nascimento has looked poor. He likes Boser's prize picks line of 35.5 significant strikes, thinking it's too low. He also mentions Boser's speed and cardio advantages.

Boser over 35.5 significant strikes
"bozer's a pretty high volume guy as long as he's not getting taken down held on his back"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by KO in the first round. He thinks Boser has good hands for heavyweight, is young, and is underrated. He notes Boser held his own against Ciryl Gane and arguably beat Ilir Latifi. He believes Nascimento is slow and sloppy on the feet, as seen against Chris Daukaus, and that Boser's quick hands in the pocket will lead to a multiple-punch combination finish late in the first round.

KO in the first round
"i'm going with tanebosa by ko in the first round here"
LOSS vs Alan Baudot
No Contest (overturned) R2 1:29 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 60 of 91 65% 73 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 49 of 83 59% 51 of 85 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 50 of 66 75% 63 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:36
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alan Baudot 0 31 of 52 59% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 60 of 91 65% 45 of 73 10 of 13 5 of 5 36 of 64 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 49 of 83 59% 41 of 75 6 of 6 2 of 2 45 of 75 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 50 of 66 75% 40 of 56 6 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 39 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 18 of 31 58% 13 of 26 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 25 40% 5 of 17 4 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alan Baudot 31 of 52 59% 28 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0 29 of 47 2 of 5 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, but he prefers the submission prop. He believes Nascimento's BJJ will be too much for Alan Baudot, who has shown poor takedown defense and grappling. He expects Nascimento to take Baudot down and submit him, likely in the first round. He is looking for plus money on the submission prop.

Nascimento by sub (looking for plus money)
"I think the play here if any is not cemento by sub what about you."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, calling Alan Baudot one of the worst heavyweights in UFC history. He notes Baudot's poor grappling and questionable chin, and expects Nascimento to take him down and submit him. He thinks Nascimento is a safer play than other heavy favorites on the card.

"Nasty men should buzz saw right through him as far as the three to one favorites on this card like he's heavyweight he just got knocked in 45 seconds but he feels a lot safer than some of the other …"
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
KO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Nascimento by second round submission; Daukaus first round at +500
"i'm gonna take nacimento to win a buy i'm gonna say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daniel mentions that Daukaus has been losing weight and taking fighting more seriously. He also notes that Nascimento's debut was against a hand-picked opponent.
"Man i might actually take him for the upset i just think the line's off"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

"i'm actually leaning chris doug is here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

first or second round submission (rear-naked choke)
"first or second round nascamento feyer eventually cracks him wobbles him a little bit then goes for the takedown and gets a rear naked choke finish in the first or second round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:05 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 32 of 52 61% 45 of 65 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:23
Don'Tale Mayes 0 27 of 48 56% 42 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 21 of 39 53% 33 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Don'Tale Mayes 0 16 of 33 48% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:20
Don'Tale Mayes 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 32 of 52 61% 14 of 33 6 of 7 12 of 12 26 of 45 3 of 3 3 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 27 of 48 56% 10 of 30 7 of 8 10 of 10 21 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 21 of 39 53% 8 of 25 4 of 5 9 of 9 18 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2
Don'Tale Mayes 16 of 33 48% 6 of 22 2 of 3 8 of 8 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 11 of 13 84% 6 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2
Don'Tale Mayes 11 of 15 73% 4 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento (Rogério) to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Mayes has been taken down and submitted before, and Nascimento is very good on the ground. He acknowledges that on the feet it could be dicey due to Mayes' size and power, but believes Nascimento will get the takedown and finish quickly.

submission, first round, fight ends inside distance
"I like Rajee Rio here I think he's going to be able to get mates down... I think an get may's down and when he does I think it's gonna be over shortly after so I like argyria to get …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi leans with Rodrigo Nascimento due to his advantage on the mat. He notes that Mayes has an unorthodox striking style but suspect ground game and cardio. He acknowledges limited footage on Nascimento but believes his jiu-jitsu brown belt and training at ATT give him the edge. He has no confidence in this pick.

"I'll lean with Rodrigo Nascimento but you know no confidence in this pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Rodrigo Nascimento, praising his submission skills and undefeated record. He believes Mayes lacks the grappling fundamentals to avoid submissions, and that Nascimento will get a submission in the first or second round. He notes Mayes' only chance is a knockout on the feet.

Rodrigo Nascimento by submission in the first or second round
"rod Rio Nascimento fan here who prides himself on going for the submissions is gonna have a much easier time in doing so and I think that rod Rio Nascimento fair is gonna be a good addition to the heavyweight …"
Don'Tale Mayes - Fight History
LOSS vs Thomas Petersen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thomas Petersen 0 28 of 51 54% 105 of 166 9 of 9 100% 1 0 13:49
Don'Tale Mayes 0 3 of 11 27% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 3 33% 12 of 19 3 of 3 100% 1 0 4:34
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 5 20% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thomas Petersen 0 5 of 19 26% 36 of 69 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:27
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thomas Petersen 0 22 of 29 75% 57 of 78 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thomas Petersen 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 26 of 45
Don'Tale Mayes 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thomas Petersen 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thomas Petersen 5 of 19 26% 5 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Thomas Petersen 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 21 of 28
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

"I like Peterson here, but another weird fight with crazy odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.

Round 2 TKO
"I think Thomas train Peterson has his best performance to date. Takes Dantel Maize down to the ground and either pounds him out or or finds a potential submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.

"I'm expecting Peterson to grind this out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Dantel Mazize. He's been in the UFC for a long time. He's got a lot of experience."
LOSS vs Valter Walker
Submission R1 1:17 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valter Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 9 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valter Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 9 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valter Walker 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valter Walker 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo hesitantly picks Valter Walker, despite his hatred for Walker's embarrassing UFC debut. He reasons that Walker has good takedowns and Mayes is useless when taken down. However, he notes Walker's striking is awful and his cardio is suspect, so if Mayes can survive early, he could win. He says he cannot bet Walker at -165.

"I'm going to I'm going to pick wter Walker but my God the writing is on the wall Dantel May has good takedowns Dantel Mays is not a [ __ ] Dantel Mays has good striking those three things all …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Walker by decision, citing Mayes' poor takedown defense (58%) and inability to get up once taken down. He notes Mayes has a striking advantage but lacks power to hurt Walker. Walker should get takedowns easily and control Mayes on the ground, though he lacks finishing ability.

goes the distance
"should be volter Walker I'll give me wter Walker by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Valter Walker

Expecting a slow, grueling fight. Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions against the cage or on the ground, using his grappling-heavy approach to nullify Mayes' offense. Walker wins on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting nothing less from this matchup which to me means that Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions... and I believe Walker will win this matchup on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Don'Tale Mayes, reasoning that Mayes has a history of losing and his wins are against low-level heavyweights. He acknowledges Walker's poor UFC debut but attributes it to circumstances, and believes Walker's regional success and potential will prevail.

"I'm gonna go with Johnny wal's Brother valter Walker"
LOSS vs Shamil Gaziev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shamil Gaziev 0 31 of 46 67% 89 of 114 2 of 3 66% 0 0 11:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 27 of 58 46% 57 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 13 61% 24 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 17 70% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shamil Gaziev 0 21 of 28 75% 29 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:28
Don'Tale Mayes 0 10 of 25 40% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Shamil Gaziev 0 2 of 5 40% 36 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 5 of 16 31% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shamil Gaziev 31 of 46 67% 22 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 12 of 25 15 of 17 4 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 27 of 58 46% 18 of 45 5 of 9 4 of 4 25 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shamil Gaziev 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 17 70% 7 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shamil Gaziev 21 of 28 75% 13 of 20 7 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 12 15 of 16 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 10 of 25 40% 9 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shamil Gaziev 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 5 of 16 31% 2 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shamil Gaziev vs. Don'Tale Mayes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-238), Mayes (+195)

Round 1
The lone heavyweight contest on the fight card plays out on the prelims rather than slotted undeservedly on the main card. Fresh off a deflating headlining loss to suffer his first pro defeat, Gaziev (12-1, 1-1 UFC) is hungry to bounce back from that setback at the expense of Kentucky judoka Mayes (11-6, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC). The reputation of the fictitious Kentucky Judo Federation is at stake over the next 15 minutes, and referee Keith Peterson is ready to handle the nonsense. There is a clap of hands, and Mayes says hello with punches, a low kick and a looping left hand. Gaziev backs him off with a one-two, and Mayes fires back but is tagged with a right hand. Mayes backs up to the wall as he tries to get his mind right, and Gaziev shoots for a double and clasps his hands. Gaziev slams his man to the floor, and the entire Octagon shudders at the impact. The Bahraini by way of Russia moves to half guard with ease, where he frames off the face with his elbow and jams it down. Gaziev frees his hand from the grasp of his foe to slug him in the chops with two right hands, and he keeps “Lord Kong” flat on his back with no sign of getting back to his feet as there are over three minutes left in the round. Gaziev considers taking side control but prefers the half guard to maintain control, and he winds up with a hard right hand that bounces off the forehead. Gaziev lands right hands when he is able to wriggle his arm out of the grip of his adversary, landing enough to keep Peterson from standing them up. Gaziev presses down with his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to land more offense. Gaziev fights off Mayes trying to sit up and punches him in the face. Gaziev hooks his arm around the neck again to keep Mayes flat, lumping him up with short but powerful blows. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Gaziev punches his way into an arm-triangle choke from the other side, but the horn toots before it is completed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
The heavyweights meander towards one another as the second round opens, and Mayes keeps his man honest by busting him in the chops with several hooks. The blows are strong but largely one, and then another, rather than chained together. Mayes gets in an uppercut and shoots for his own takedown, and Gaziev grabs pursues a takedown. Mayes grabs the shorts of his foe, pulling them way up, and Peterson warns him for the grab and calls time to issue another warning instead of taking a point. They resume where they left off, and Mayes ducks, seeing an elbow whiz by his head. Mayes gets back to boxing range, slinging hooks, and Gaziev clashes forward and slams his head into the chin of his foe. Peterson observes it but does not call time, and Gaziev fights his way into a clinch as Mayes is not overly thrilled. Gaziev drives knees to the solar plexus, and he rings Mayes’ bell with an elbow. Mayes staggers back, away from the clinch, but Gaziev snags him again and starts peppering him again with knees. As the heavyweights slow to a crawl, the commentary booth remarks that the temperature feels like over 100 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity in the arena around 75%. The big men are pouring sweat and are totally wiped out, kneeing one another with short shots as Gaziev is warned by draping his hands over the fencing. Mayes sneaks in a left hand, and Gaziev pays him back with a thumping knee. Gaziev has no interest in letting go or deviating from his approach, clinging to the Kentucky native and spamming knees until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 3
Mayes starts out the final round with a fresh head of steam, racing in with punches that are telegraphed and largely miss the mark. Gaziev avoids some, eats others, and responds when caught. Mayes swings hard to the liver, and Gaziev runs at him and bowls him over, landing in half guard and returning to smothering top control form. Gaziev stays just busy enough to not have Peterson warn him for inactivity, smacking Mayes in the dome and otherwise making his life miserable. Gaziev holds on with his forearm, and Mayes complains about something. Mayes starts talking to Gaziev, and Peterson does call for more action. Gaziev answers with a few fists, and Mayes answers him with words that Gaziev may or may not understand. Gaziev postures up to drop down heavy left hands, and Mayes keeps chattering and softly lands punches to the side from his back. Mayes holds on and is trying to have a conversation, mentioning that the fans are booing Gaziev. Gaziev controls and grinds, sapping time away and ending the rough matchup disappointingly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)

The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Don’Tale Mayes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo is confident Gaziev bounces back from his first loss, believing he bit off more than he could chew in his last fight. He thinks Gaziev is the more powerful striker with good takedowns, and that this is a good rebound fight. He expects Gaziev to win but notes cardio concerns.

"I am not ready to give up on Shamil... I think he does get on the right track"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Big Brady thinks Gaziev should be able to destroy Mayes if he is anywhere near the real deal, comparing Mayes to Martin Budai whom Gaziev finished impressively. He notes Mayes does not like getting hit and has been finished on the mat multiple times. He worries about Gaziev's gas tank if the fight extends past 1.5 rounds but predicts an early finish by first-round knockout.

"I think gaze can maybe pressure in this fight like he did against Martin budai if he does that I think he can knock out dant ma"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling and clinch to neutralize Mayes's range striking. Cody acknowledges Gaziev's cardio issues but believes in a three-round fight he can win the first two rounds. He also mentions that Mayes is flat-footed and struggles to get up when taken down.

"I'm gonna Edge towards gazio."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Daniel picks Gaziev, believing he should be able to pin Mayes against the fence and dirty box him. He notes Mayes is inconsistent and has lost to lower-level competition, while Gaziev's only loss is to a top-10 guy. He expects a similar performance to Gaziev's win over Bud.

"I think Shamil is just better than dant May so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev is coming off a main event loss and will be pissed off. He should steamroll Mayes, finishing him in the first or second round.

finishes in round 1 or 2
"I think we're going to see a very pissed off gadv coming into the cage this weekend and I think he steamrolls down tell me finishing him in the first or second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has been taken down by many opponents and has poor get-up game. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling to control the fight. Paul acknowledges that both fighters are low-level heavyweights and that Mayes could win if he stuffs takedowns, but he leans toward Gaziev. He also mentions that the fight could be slow and the over might be a play.

over 1.5 rounds
"Maybe hit an over because it's one of those slow paced bog of a heavyweight fights."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Don'Tale Mayes, despite calling Gaziev 'awful'. He thinks Mayes is 'a bit dumb' and that Gaziev's grappling will be the difference. He expects Gaziev to take Mayes down and wear him out, possibly catching a spinning attack from Mayes. He predicts a fourth-round TKO, though the fight is three rounds.

TKO
"I'm GNA go with Shamil gazer over Dantel may I just think Dantel May is a bit dumb"
WIN vs Caio Machado
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 1 67 of 183 36% 73 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 76 of 159 47% 77 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 1 20 of 55 36% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 21 of 67 31% 21 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 32 of 66 48% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 67 of 183 36% 42 of 140 18 of 29 7 of 14 67 of 181 0 of 1 0 of 1
Caio Machado 76 of 159 47% 33 of 103 25 of 33 18 of 23 75 of 158 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 20 of 55 36% 12 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 4 20 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Caio Machado 19 of 40 47% 6 of 23 6 of 8 7 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 26 of 61 42% 18 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 5 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 25 of 53 47% 13 of 38 7 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 21 of 67 31% 12 of 51 7 of 11 2 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Machado 32 of 66 48% 14 of 42 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.

"I am going the dog here in Kyo Machado"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.

"I'm taking it might be the return of D1 dant"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.

"I'm going Kyle Machado here Dantel May is a bum"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see masado get back to his feet if he is taken down and I think we'll see him get back to the pressure style and really put some big punches on Maize and possibly even finish him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.

"I'll flip the script and I'll I'll take Mado here wins slightly slightly on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog. He notes that Caio Machado is used to being the taller fighter and keeps his hands down, which could be exploited by Mayes' height and reach. He criticizes Machado's headbutts and believes Mayes' athleticism and one-shot finishing power give him an edge. He also mentions that Machado's win over Mick Parkin was aided by head clashes and that Mayes' KO of Andre Arlovski shows his potential.

"I'm gonna go with Dantel Mays over Machado"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 70 of 154 45% 91 of 180 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:21
Don'Tale Mayes 0 79 of 159 49% 105 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 33 of 69 47% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 60 46% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 40 50% 30 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 23 of 50 46% 36 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 17 of 45 37% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 49 57% 34 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 70 of 154 45% 51 of 132 9 of 11 10 of 11 58 of 134 12 of 20 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 79 of 159 49% 39 of 103 30 of 44 10 of 12 55 of 128 24 of 31 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 33 of 69 47% 28 of 64 2 of 2 3 of 3 30 of 61 3 of 8 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 60 46% 14 of 36 10 of 18 4 of 6 21 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 40 50% 13 of 33 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 23 of 50 46% 13 of 36 9 of 13 1 of 1 12 of 37 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 17 of 45 37% 10 of 35 4 of 6 3 of 4 13 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 49 57% 12 of 31 11 of 13 5 of 5 22 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

would bet over 1.5 rounds if line is offered
"Rodrigo is going to be the pick I trust him to come forward I trust him to wrestle I trust him to do all those things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

"give me an awesome minute to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

"I'm gonna go Rodrigo Nascimento here... I still think Rodrigo Nascimento is better than this man and for that reason I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

"I think d ma is I think the line's a little bit wide but I'm not massively passionate about this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Rodrigo naso FAA... I think the grapp is going to be the difference here... 2928 decision"
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 24 of 56 42% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 25 of 87 28% 28 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 47 17% 11 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 24 of 56 42% 10 of 36 9 of 10 5 of 10 24 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 25 of 87 28% 14 of 58 4 of 14 7 of 15 22 of 82 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 14 of 25 56% 5 of 12 5 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 47 17% 5 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 7 7 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Don'Tale Mayes 10 of 31 32% 5 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 3 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 40 42% 9 of 25 3 of 7 5 of 8 15 of 37 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

"in every single category other than Andre's old Andre lofsky's the better fighter every single category"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna take the pit bull to get one over"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

"I mean he almost accidentally won that fight with hamdi up del wahab"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

"I'll ask you ... Arlovski as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Bet $100 on Mayes moneyline at +120.
"my pick I gotta stick with my duel man Indiana Zone Downtown maze baby nap time 100 317"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with King Kong Dantel maze in this fight I think you'll be able to mix it up a lot better than Andre olowski"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

"it's our lovsky for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

"I think arlovsky just sort of frustrating him at range I can see him picking at him tapping at his legs"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Zane picks Arlovski based on his consistent ability to outwork opponents who lack a high-output striking game. He notes that Mayes is a talented but dysfunctional fighter with poor wrestling and no coherent game plan. Arlovski's jab, clinch work, and steady pace have proven too much for similar fighters like Felipe Lins and Tanner Boser. Zane believes Mayes' athleticism won't compensate for his lack of structure.

"I'm gonna take old man our law of ski once again"
LOSS vs Augusto Sakai
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 53 of 95 55% 107 of 173 1 of 2 50% 0 0 8:51
Don'Tale Mayes 0 29 of 62 46% 77 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 20 65% 29 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Augusto Sakai 0 16 of 27 59% 46 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:52
Don'Tale Mayes 0 4 of 15 26% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Augusto Sakai 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 53 of 95 55% 27 of 65 18 of 22 8 of 8 21 of 49 30 of 42 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 29 of 62 46% 15 of 46 10 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 38 50% 10 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 5 of 14 14 of 24 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 20 65% 4 of 11 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 7 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 18 of 30 60% 11 of 21 7 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 15 10 of 11 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 27 44% 9 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make me feel …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such a mess"
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 47 of 116 40% 54 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 1 58 of 110 52% 106 of 164 3 of 4 75% 0 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 1 21 of 40 52% 44 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 24 of 56 42% 27 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 19 of 41 46% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 12 of 20 60% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 18 of 29 62% 42 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hamdy Abdelwahab 47 of 116 40% 28 of 90 12 of 17 7 of 9 45 of 111 2 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 58 of 110 52% 51 of 102 5 of 6 2 of 2 30 of 74 2 of 3 26 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 11 of 40 27% 6 of 31 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 21 of 40 52% 19 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 30 2 of 2 6 of 8
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 24 of 56 42% 14 of 44 6 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 51 2 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 19 of 41 46% 14 of 36 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 9
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 12 of 20 60% 8 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 18 of 29 62% 18 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 1 14 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Big Brady picks Don'Tale Mayes to win by knockout in the second or third round. He is very critical of Abdelwahab's level of competition, cardio, and ground game, calling him not UFC caliber. He expects Mayes to use his size advantage and eventually finish Abdelwahab as he slows down.

"i like dantel mace here i like dantel mace to finish him d abdul wahab and i like him to do in that second or third round by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody picks Mayes, noting that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who didn't earn his way to the UFC. He describes Abdelwahab as an Egyptian wrestling champion but with a small wrestling program, and his striking is very rudimentary. Mayes has a huge size advantage (6'6" with 81" reach) and has been improving his grappling. He thinks Mayes will feast on Abdelwahab, staying on the outside and chopping away. He also mentions he got Mayes at -125 earlier.

"i think dante manages feasts on him there's going to be a huge size advantage... he's going to be able to just stay to the outside and chop away at this guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel picks Mayes on principle, citing his experience and dues paid. He notes Mayes has fought tougher competition, including Ciryl Gane, and has a two-fight win streak. He heavily criticizes Abdelwahab's resume, calling his opponents 'ice cream vendors' and noting he has only 3 pro fights, all mismatches. He also questions the level of Egyptian Greco-Roman wrestling, citing a friend who said it's not comparable to US or Russian wrestling. He acknowledges Mayes isn't elite but believes experience will prevail.

"I gotta go Don'Tale Mayes on principle."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

Preet bet Mayes at -132, noting Hamdi's sketchy competition and poor cardio. He expects Mayes to keep distance with his jab and footwork, survive the first round, and take over as Hamdi slows down. He references Mayes' wrestling-heavy win over Josh Parisian as evidence of his late-round finishing ability.

"i'm on the maze side too here i got it at -132"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Paul also picks Mayes, agreeing that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who is not a legitimate prospect. He notes that Mayes has been improving, with good wins over Josh Parisian and Roque Martinez. He thinks Mayes' size and reach advantage will be key, and that Abdelwahab's wrestling won't be enough. He also mentions that Mayes has been working on his grappling and shouldn't be mistaken for the same guy from a few fights back.

"i got to go maze for sure for sure for sure... he's taking the fun and short notice and he's probably going to get the ass beat pretty good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes by TKO in the second round. He expects Hamdy Abdelwahab to come out fast with takedowns and pressure, but will gas out in round two. Mayes will then take over with body work, jabs, and a counter shot that rocks Hamdy, leading to ground-and-pound elbows.

TKO in round 2
"dantel maze gets this one done by tko late in the second"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

would bet over 1.5 rounds if line is offered
"Rodrigo is going to be the pick I trust him to come forward I trust him to wrestle I trust him to do all those things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

"give me an awesome minute to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

"I'm gonna go Rodrigo Nascimento here... I still think Rodrigo Nascimento is better than this man and for that reason I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

"I think d ma is I think the line's a little bit wide but I'm not massively passionate about this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Rodrigo naso FAA... I think the grapp is going to be the difference here... 2928 decision"