UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
3.24 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.71 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.6 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Modestas Bukauskas
3.24 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.05 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.26 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Vitor Petrino
Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
BetWay +220
Submission
BetMGM +450
Decision
BetWay +275
Modestas Bukauskas
Moneyline
Caesars +220
KO/TKO
BetRivers +540
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
BetRivers +500
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
KO R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 2 31 of 54 57% 33 of 61 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:03
Thomas Petersen 0 16 of 35 45% 41 of 62 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 1 13 of 20 65% 15 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:42
Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 5 20% 22 of 27 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
2 Vitor Petrino 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Thomas Petersen 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
3 Vitor Petrino 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Thomas Petersen 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 31 of 54 57% 25 of 46 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 29 9 of 12 9 of 13
Thomas Petersen 16 of 35 45% 7 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 13 of 20 65% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 10
Thomas Petersen 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 14 of 28 50% 8 of 21 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 19 6 of 8 0 of 1
Thomas Petersen 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thomas Petersen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

"I do think Vitor is better everywhere except just pure American grit and toughness. I think he gets Thomas Petersen out of there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

knockout
"I'm leaning knockout for VTO Petrino. I'll say he does touch the chin of Thomas Peterson. We'll say second round knockout for Vtorrino here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm going Pison as well, but because it's in Brazil and I know Thomas Patterson really isn't a world beater by any stretch, it likely is the PRP pick this week all the way at the bottom."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Vitor Petrino by KO (+140), Thomas Petersen by decision (+600)
"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via KO, but I don't love the pick and I'm definitely not in love with the price tag at minus 310."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Petersen round three TKO (+1500); Petersen by decision (+550)
"I'd rather lean on that prop rather than taking the money line on Petrino, but at the end of the day, I'm going to lean Peterson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"For me, it's Dogger Pass. Thomas Peterson, where are you at with this fight?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino. TKO finish in the first round over Thomas Peterson."
WIN vs Austen Lane
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Modestas Bukauskas - Fight History
CANCEL vs Rodolfo Bellato
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his gut despite an uneasy feeling. He notes Bukauskas can stop some takedowns and have success striking, leading to a decision win. He recalls Bellato losing similar fights where he had takedowns but was behind on striking. He has seen Bellato quit before.

"Modescus is the pick. ... I've seen Bolato quit. I've seen him pretend to be hurt. I've seen him lose fights where he had takedowns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Lucrative James tentatively picks Modestas Bukauskas via decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes Bukauskas's superior footwork and range management, but also highlights concerns about his training camp disruption and lack of finishing ability. He suggests the fight could go either way and may bet on Bellato if the odds are favorable.

"My prediction is Modestas Picowskus via decision. But I'm going to tell you right now that this prediction is a very tentative prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host thinks Bukauskas is technically superior and should outwork Bellato, but he is hesitant due to Bellato's knockout power and aggression. He predicts Bukauskas wins by decision but would only bet if the line becomes a pick'em or Bukauskas becomes the underdog.

"I think if Bukowskis is able to get into a groove, get his combinations off, he can counter Bellatto effectively. I think he can hurt him a few times if he's able to find the chin as well."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 36 of 80 45% 52 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Christian Edwards 0 36 of 71 50% 51 of 89 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 10 of 29 34% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Edwards 0 11 of 30 36% 20 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:47
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 16 of 28 57% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Christian Edwards 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 10 of 23 43% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Edwards 0 14 of 19 73% 20 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 36 of 80 45% 21 of 64 10 of 11 5 of 5 30 of 74 6 of 6 0 of 0
Christian Edwards 36 of 71 50% 13 of 41 17 of 20 6 of 10 27 of 61 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 10 of 29 34% 4 of 22 4 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
Christian Edwards 11 of 30 36% 2 of 16 6 of 8 3 of 6 9 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 28 57% 14 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Edwards 11 of 22 50% 3 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 10 of 23 43% 3 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Edwards 14 of 19 73% 8 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody reluctantly picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting that Christian Edwards has shown poor durability, heart, and grappling. He acknowledges that Bukauskas is not a high-level fighter but has fought better competition. However, he is not confident at -280 and considers it a dog-or-pass fight. He suggests Bukauskas by decision or an over 2.5 rounds prop.

Suggests Modestas Bukauskas by decision or over 2.5 rounds.
"For me, the PRP pick I I I h Well, as of right now, I am going to put Modesus Picowskus."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Modestas Bukauskas

Bukauskas is better everywhere and Edwards is on short notice. Bukauskas should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet. No interest in fight spread or over/under.

"I would be amazed if Edwards were to win this on less than a week's notice."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul struggles to pick a side, finding it hard to back Modestas Bukauskas at -280 and also not confident in Christian Edwards. He notes that Edwards has been knocked out by Ben Parish and lost to Rake Cleveland, but is still young and training at a good gym. He decides to pass from a betting perspective.

"I would really struggle to click Modest at minus 280. So I suppose it's dog or pass, but I'm probably going to be a coward and pass from an actual betting perspective here."
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
KO R3 4:57 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 1 72 of 137 52% 94 of 164 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:37
Modestas Bukauskas 0 40 of 108 37% 43 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:58
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nikita Krylov 0 23 of 40 57% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 32 34% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Nikita Krylov 1 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 55 32% 18 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 72 of 137 52% 25 of 76 22 of 34 25 of 27 64 of 128 5 of 6 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 40 of 108 37% 35 of 101 2 of 4 3 of 3 40 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 10 of 28 35% 3 of 17 1 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nikita Krylov 23 of 40 57% 8 of 20 8 of 13 7 of 7 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 32 34% 8 of 28 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nikita Krylov 39 of 69 56% 14 of 39 13 of 16 12 of 14 35 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 55 32% 16 of 52 0 of 1 2 of 2 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Nikita Krylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)

Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov

Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.

This is just a fun fight. You don't need to bet on everything. Just sit back, relax, enjoy.
"I'm going to take the more powerful striker over the guy with the failing chin. So Modesus is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.

Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2
"I'm taking the guy who's not completely washed and that's Modest Bukowskis. I'm going to take Bukowskis to knock out Krill."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.

"I'm going to edge him out with Krylov. It's very much a question of is he done? And he's 33 years old. It's not really done by the numbers, but you know, Paul mentioned it two-year layoff and he's come …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.

"I got to take bakaskis. I hate to see it because when he was in his prime he was out there with like a high volume kicking game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.

"I think Bukasquez comes out here, gets the biggest win of his career, and for the first time becomes a ranked UFC light heavyweight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.

"I kind of feel like Kryle wins skill set for skill set here. And if he comes in with a good game plan with his chin not being completely paper or dust, then he has a good shot of winning …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.

Bukauskas by knockout
"I love this line on Bukowskis. You know, he's made some bonehead mistakes in the past to make fights a little bit closer than they should be. So that kind of gives me a little bit of pause in terms …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.

"I do tend to to lean towards Picowskis, but I'm a little bit hesitant because I think his wrestling is still there to be exploited."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Modi by KO in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.

"He seems like he's starting the fight panicked. Which is bad. And just imagine how he's going to feel when he looks into medestus bakowskis's empty eyes."
WIN vs Paul Craig
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.

"Modesus is going to be the pick. I think he kind of runs through Paul Craig to be honest with you."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.

Bukauskas by decision
"Bukowskis for me, Bukowskis by decision. I think this fight's probably going to suck to be honest."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.

"Paul Craig's fragility is always going to be there. Craig is always going to be the more likely guy to get extremely badly hurt in any exchange."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a fight where Bukowskis can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance and may not overextend too much here in hopes of not getting taken down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Modestus Picowskus and I'm going to say that he finishes this in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.

"Got to pick Modestus Bukauskis and this fight just didn't, doesn't need to be, it doesn't need to exist."
WIN vs Ion Cuțelaba
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 44 of 92 47% 52 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Ion Cuțelaba 0 58 of 130 44% 121 of 194 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ion Cuțelaba 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 16 of 32 50% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Ion Cuțelaba 0 25 of 49 51% 50 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Ion Cuțelaba 0 16 of 35 45% 54 of 74 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 44 of 92 47% 37 of 85 3 of 3 4 of 4 42 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ion Cuțelaba 58 of 130 44% 18 of 74 16 of 19 24 of 37 47 of 117 11 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 12 of 34 35% 7 of 29 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ion Cuțelaba 17 of 46 36% 4 of 26 3 of 4 10 of 16 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 32 50% 15 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ion Cuțelaba 25 of 49 51% 11 of 30 5 of 6 9 of 13 20 of 42 5 of 7 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 26 61% 15 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ion Cuțelaba 16 of 35 45% 3 of 18 8 of 9 5 of 8 10 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-112), Cutelaba (-108)

Round 1
Keeping to the light heavyweight division, there is a very realistic scenario that both men will hold .500 records in the Octagon if one man prevails. Bukauskas (17-6, 5-4 UFC) has done his absolute best to make up for an early rough stretch, while “The Hulk” Cutelaba (19-10-1, 1 NC; 8-9-1 UFC) is aiming to smash his way back to that midpoint range. Both men vastly prefer the knockout, but they have also sustained multiple stoppage losses of that type in the past as well. Referee Dan Miragliotta dons his proverbial hard hat as the 31-year-olds do not bother to touch gloves. Bukauskas leads off with a long, leaping jab. Cutelaba kicks him back in the front leg, doing so one more time when Bukauskas changes stances. Cutelaba keeps at it until Bukauskas fires one back at him, and it does not slow him for long. Cutelaba turns his hips into an especially heavy calf kick, and he leans back as a one-two comes up just short of his face. Bukauskas is unable to reach his foe with punches, while Cutelaba kicks him at will. Bukauskas steps in and catches Cutelaba with a left hand, and he follows with a right that “The Hulk” takes on the chin without batting an eye. Cutelaba fires back with an overhand right, and he offers a body kick and spins with a wheel kick that both bounce off the guard. Cutelaba catches Bukauskas at the end of a calf kick, and he parries a body kick and blocks a subsequent head kick. Bukauskas snaps out a jab, and he sways to avoid the worst of an overhand right. Cutelaba does not falter kicking the front leg time and time again, and they clash together with hooks that partially land. Cutelaba has a massive uppercut and right hand knock out the air around the Lithuanian, and he plants his legs and pounds on Bukauskas’ from leg. Bukauskas gets off a two-punch combo and rushes back knowing “The Hulk” is coming after him. Bukauskas chains together two one-twos that catch the Moldovan on the chin, and once more, he no-sells them and walks forward. They both miss with spinning back kicks to the body, and Cutelaba tries to corner Bukauskas with a low kick and times a left hand when Bukauskas advances. Cutelaba plants his heel on Bukauskas’ side with a spin kick, and Bukauskas tries to do something similar but cannot score it. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba

Round 2
The second round opens up with Cutelaba pressing forward, landing a few punches and mixing in kicks. The Moldovan follows the success with another blitz, backing his opponent up and drilling Bukauskas with a right hand. They crash together, and Cutelaba spins with an elbow that bangs into Bukauskas’ jaw. It is Cutelaba who goes flying after the blow lands, because he spun himself off-balance, and he recovers quickly. Cutelaba considers a level change, and he runs into a stone wall that he pushes against the fence. Cutelaba grinds his man against the fencing, offering a knee or two but otherwise stalling out. They jockey for position when in the clinch, and Miragliotta separates them. Cutelaba spins with a wheel kick out of nowhere, and both men trip and nearly go down without the strike connecting. They get back to their feet, and Cutelaba chases his man with an overhand right. When he pitches a naked leg kick, Bukauskas counters with two punches. Cutelaba sits down on a hard right hand, and Bukauskas has to blink it out but is otherwise unconcerned. Cutelaba keeps his guard up, and he rushes forward and lands a couple punches and a kick at the end. Cutelaba offers a leg kick and ducks down to fire off a right hand when he sees Bukauskas coming forward, and he throws a wheel kick so hard that he falls over when it is way out of range. Cutelaba stands, and he initiates a brawl. Bukauskas catches him and nearly gets blasted, having to circle around to regain his footing. One final brawl ensues, with Bukauskas getting the better of the final exchange before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba

Round 3
Cutelaba is energized to start off the final frame, pushing forward immediately but not able to catch Bukauskas standing still. He settles for a few chopping calf kicks, and he shoots in for a double from afar that Bukauskas is able to defend thanks to the wall behind him. The clinch position stalls the two 205ers out, who trade occasional knees but do little more to satisfy Miragliotta. They are separated, and Cutelaba is the aggressor again. Clipping Bukauskas with a left hand, Cutelaba keeps marching forward and lashes out with a low kick that scores, and a spinning back kick that bangs into his foe’s midsection. Cutelaba stomps out with a kick to the front knee, and Bukauskas is tired of waiting and lays into “The Hulk” with a massive right hand. Cutelaba does not so much as flinch, and eats another huge punch that he once more shrugs off. Cutelaba follows his foe around the cage, and he skims a spin kick off the body and reaches at the end of a right hand. Bukauskas goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he stings Cutelaba with a check hook and forces the Moldovan to shoot in on his hips. Bukauskas stops the takedown but is otherwise pushed to the wire, where they spin one another around. They give one another knees to the guts, and Cutelaba goes for a trip that is unable to get his man down. Bukauskas pushes off and lets his hands go, only for Cutelaba to tie him back up. Miragliotta calls for action as Bukauskas leans on his opponent, and he breaks and spins with an elbow. Cutelaba busts him in the chops with a right hand, and swings for the bleachers with a few more. The final strike of the fight is a spinning kick from the Lithuanian to the midsection, and a slightly bloodied Cutelaba raises his hands to signal he thinks he won the fight. Time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Ion Cutelaba via Split Decision (27-30, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas as the more technically sound and well-rounded fighter, but acknowledges Ion Cuțelaba is unpredictable and dangerous. He notes Cuțelaba has power and offensive takedowns but no takedown defense. Angelo mentions a potential bet on Cuțelaba inside the distance with decision no action, but his pick is Bukauskas. He emphasizes that picks are not bets and he wouldn't bet on Bukauskas.

Considering bet on Cuțelaba inside the distance decision no action
"I am actually gonna go the Modest side here because I think he's the more technically sound and well-rounded of the two, but we all know that Coutalaba is Coutalaba."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Big Brady thinks Cuțelaba has multiple paths to victory: he hits harder, is more durable, and can mix in wrestling. He notes Bukauskas is chinny, hittable, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Cuțelaba's losses have come against high-level or dangerous opponents, while Bukauskas is neither. He predicts Cuțelaba wins by decision, landing bigger shots and mixing in wrestling.

"I like Kudalaba here. ... I'm actually going to take him to win this fight uh by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes Bukauskas is in the best form of his career and will thwart Cuțelaba's power striking and grappling. He expects Bukauskas to use his cardio, technical striking, and improved grappling to win on the scorecards.

"I do think Bukowskis is in the best form in his career as of late and I think that'll showcase once again here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

The MMA Guru picks Cuțelaba as a slight underdog, citing Bukauskas' knee injury and susceptibility to pressure. He thinks Cuțelaba's wrestling and early aggression will exploit Bukauskas' compromised leg, leading to a finish in the first or second round by TKO or submission.

TKO or submission in the first or early second round
"I'm going to go with Coutalaba getting this one done by TKO or submission in the first or early second round."
KO R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 1 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raffael Cerqueira 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 1 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raffael Cerqueira 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 41 39% 11 of 36 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 1
Raffael Cerqueira 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 16 of 41 39% 11 of 36 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 1
Raffael Cerqueira 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Raffael Cerqueira

Round 1
The UFC treks to Seattle for the first time since 2013, when flyweight king Demetrious Johnson put his belt on the line against John Moraga. The sport never stops moving, and none of the 24 fighters on the lineup of that event will be competing tonight at UFC Fight Night 252. The matchmakers put together a show that even with a ton of injuries and changeups, it has the potential to be hot fire, just like Dylan. A pair of light heavyweight sluggers grace the cage first, and with 22 finishes across their 27 combined wins, referee Jeff Hoiby is already hyper-focused on what’s about to happen next. With a fresh look at the division after leaving the company for a pair of fights, Bukauskas (16-6, 4-4 UFC) has fared better his second time around. On the other hand, Cerqueira (11-1, 0-1 UFC) introduced himself to the masses in October and had his block knocked off by a man in Ibo Aslan who will be competing later. It’s likely knock out or be knocked out, but before they try for that, the fighters bump fists. Bukauskas introduces himself with an axe kick of all strikes, and the Brazilian is well away from him as he watches it go wide. Bukauskas walks his man down and busts him in the chops with a right hand and a left, and Cerqueira bounces off the cage wall and sets up a body kick. Bukauskas reaches with a long right hand, and he paws out with a front kick and a low kick. Cerqueira strikes back at the lead leg, but he leaves himself over for an overhand right that skims the forward bow. Bukauskas turns his hips into a low kick, and this time it is him who is wide-open for a one-two down the pipe. Bukauskas targets the pectoral with a right hand, only to get his chin checked with another clean one-two. Cerqueira loads up on a power punch and gets the attention of “The Baltic Gladiator,” but he also gets tagged on the way out. Bukauskas strides forward, fired up and ready to go, and he unleashes a flurry of fists that crash into the chin of “The Lion.” Cerqueira’s eyes go wide as he is surprised he got clipped, and he backs towards the wall in hopes of getting his balance.
This is the worst thing he can do, as he leans back and has his chin straight up in the air. Bukauskas does not let his man off the hook, blasting him in the face with powerful punches that shake the Brazilian up and separate him from his senses. Cerqueira crumbles to the floor, lights on but no one is home, and Hoiby rushes in to stop the fight.
The victorious Lithuanian walks off triumphantly and hits a picture-perfect back flip to further wow the masses. That is one heck of a way to start the night, as the crowd goes wild.
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The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Raffael Cerqueira R1 2:12 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Bukauskas but is hesitant because he sees Cerqueira as dangerous and unproven. He notes Bukauskas has been knocked out four times and had trouble with Marcin Prachnio, while Cerqueira has 10 stoppages in 11 wins but was knocked out in his UFC debut. He says there's no world where he bets on Bukauskas at -350 and will leave this fight alone.

"I'm going to pick Bukauskas here because Raphael's a bit unproven... but there's not a world where I'm betting on Bukauskas at minus 350."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Big Brady picks Raffael Cerqueira despite being a complete unknown with only two fights available to watch. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is low-volume, lacks power, and has never looked like a -310 favorite against anyone. He believes Cerqueira has a significant advantage on the ground as a BJJ black belt training with Guto Almeida, and that Bukauskas's technical striking advantage is negated by his low output. He calls this a '100% gambler fight' and picks Cerqueira by knockout, though he admits the fight is awful.

by knockout
"I'm actually going to pick sirera just due to the fact that like listen on the feet modestus the better technical Striker but he just doesn't throw anything and if this fight hits the ground in theory sirera is going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes the line is too wide but expects Bukauskas's striking style to shut down Cerqueira's BJJ and Muay Thai. He predicts Bukauskas will chip away and win on the scorecards.

"I expect the Striking style of Bukowski to shut down the BJJ black belt and mu tie of Sera and I think we'll see bowkus chip away at him and win this fight on the scor cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The Guru dismisses Raffael Cerqueira after his poor debut where he covered up and accepted defeat. He believes Bukauskas is more technical, matches in size and athleticism, and is a real fighter. He refuses to pick Cerqueira again, calling him a non-fighter who fought weak regional competition.

"I'll never pick him to win a fight he's about to get ruined out the UFC by modestus pus who is just as big an athletic as him but is a lot more technical"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:12 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 38 of 76 50% 56 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:31
Marcin Prachnio 0 70 of 139 50% 120 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Marcin Prachnio 0 26 of 61 42% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Marcin Prachnio 0 34 of 58 58% 67 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 2 of 6 33% 16 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:48
Marcin Prachnio 0 10 of 20 50% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 38 of 76 50% 28 of 64 7 of 9 3 of 3 29 of 62 3 of 7 6 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 70 of 139 50% 19 of 74 31 of 44 20 of 21 58 of 123 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 31 5 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 26 of 61 42% 2 of 29 10 of 17 14 of 15 25 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 5
Marcin Prachnio 34 of 58 58% 8 of 26 20 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 44 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Marcin Prachnio 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)

Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.

hoping for over 1.5 rounds line
"mcus should win he's going to be the pick here he's much younger he's more well-rounded"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.

"I'm just GNA ride up on prne out here can't make you can't have any real type of Faith but at some point you got to bite the bullet and take some people that your gut tells you to go …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.

"just give me the guy with the higher work rate and that's uh Marine prel so and he's the underdog so I'll pick him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.

"I guess Marine will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.

"I can't help but pick a Marchin prao Underdog you guys know how I feel about Marchin prao being an underdog which he normally is in every one of his fights um I'm going to pick him to win this …"
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 9 months ago

Boring enough, vitor got the takedown in rd1. Still jab in rd2, ref stopped the fight??