Career Averages - Caio Borralho
Career Averages - Abusupiyan Magomedov
Caio Borralho
Abusupiyan Magomedov
Caio Borralho - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 57 of 98 | 58% | 71 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 55 of 141 | 39% | 111 of 199 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 30 of 62 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 23 of 50 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 25 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 58 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 57 of 98 | 58% | 32 of 65 | 9 of 16 | 16 of 17 | 55 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 55 of 141 | 39% | 37 of 117 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 53 of 139 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 24 of 42 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 19 of 51 | 37% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 14 of 25 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 31 | 61% | 12 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo points out that Caio is a slick grappler with improving striking, while RDR is a known quitter who quit on the stool in his last fight. He acknowledges RDR's size and grappling ability but believes Caio is too smart and mobile to be brute forced. He also notes the fight is 15 minutes, which might favor RDR, but ultimately cannot pick a two-time quitter.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. He notes de Ridder had severe health issues and gassed badly in his last fight against Brendan Allen, unable to get up between rounds. Borralho is the better striker and has solid wrestling and takedown defense. Brady expects de Ridder to win the first round but fade, allowing Borralho to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Cody also picks Borralho, highlighting his excellent jab, durability, and cardio. He criticizes de Ridder's weight cut, age, and reliance on a step-in knee that works best against orthodox fighters. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly via a straight left down the middle.
Connor picks Borralho but with hesitation. He notes that Borralho's low output and choosy striking could be exploited by de Ridder's relentless pressure, but de Ridder lacks the combination striking to punish Borralho's flaws. Connor worries about Borralho's positional complacency in the clinch and on the ground, and de Ridder's ability to take him down and control him, as seen in the Brendan Allen fight. However, he ultimately trusts Borralho's defensive instincts.
Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Borralho but is hesitant due to the steep odds (-275). He believes Borralho's Damen Mia black belt jiu-jitsu can neutralize de Ridder's grappling, and he favors Borralho's technical striking. However, he notes that Borralho doesn't dominate opponents and that de Ridder could surprise after a poor performance. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and would not lay the juice.
The host acknowledges Borralho is better everywhere technically, with superior striking defense and takedown defense (77%), and expects him to win. However, he sees no value at the current odds (1.35 / -285) as Borralho's implied probability of 74% is too high to justify a bet. He also dislikes de Ridder, calling him sloppy and low-level, but passes on the fight entirely.
James favors Caio Borralho due to his superior striking, better cardio, and ability to hang with de Ridder in grappling. He points out de Ridder's questionable cardio and quitting in his last fight, while Borralho is more energy-efficient. James believes Borralho can hurt de Ridder on the feet and potentially get a finish, especially as de Ridder tires. He also notes Borralho's grappling success against Brendan Allen in a karate combat match, suggesting he can reverse or neutralize de Ridder's takedowns.
Borralho is well-rounded and can stop de Ridder's grappling. He is a better striker and should outpoint de Ridder over five rounds. De Ridder has a history of quitting when pressured. Borralho by decision is likely, and he's a solid parlay piece.
Paul picks Borralho, citing his durability, improved striking, and poor matchup for de Ridder. He notes de Ridder's body shutdown in the Allen fight and his awkward style. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly hitting the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, believing his grappling will overwhelm Borralho. He notes de Ridder's success against Brendan Allen and his relentless chain wrestling. He expects de Ridder to win a decision, possibly losing the third round due to cardio.
Zane also picks Borralho but with reservations. He notes that de Ridder's pressure could overwhelm Borralho if he hasn't prepared properly, and that Borralho's out-fighting style may not hold up against relentless pressure. Zane points out that de Ridder's game is to crash into opponents and take them down, which could exploit Borralho's tendency to get complacent in the clinch. He sticks with his pick but acknowledges the uncertainty.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 81 of 162 | 50% | 89 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 89 of 190 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 7 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 81 of 162 | 50% | 53 of 118 | 14 of 26 | 14 of 18 | 79 of 160 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 109 | 14 of 38 | 13 of 19 | 59 of 159 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 10 of 18 | 55% | 3 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 10 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 7 of 30 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 13 of 31 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 17 of 38 | 44% | 8 of 22 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 24 of 44 | 54% | 17 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 12 of 32 | 37% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Nassourdine Imavov | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Borralho | 24 of 44 | 54% | 17 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Nassourdine Imavov, citing his superior striking, footwork, and gas tank. He acknowledges Borralho's improvements and toughness but believes Imavov has more ways to win. He trusts Imavov's takedown defense over five rounds and notes that Borralho might be distracted by his world tour. He calls it a razor-thin 50-50 fight.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho, citing his grappling upside and the 'Fighting Nerds' aura. He expects a close fight going 25 minutes, with Borralho winning minutes in the clinch and with takedowns. He notes both have good cardio but favors Borralho slightly.
Connor also picks Borralho, citing that Imavov's game may struggle against a southpaw and that Borralho's low kicks and body work will pay dividends. He notes that Imavov still tends to gas, especially if he wrestles, and that Borralho's conditioning is superior. However, he admits that Borralho's one good performance against Cannonier may be stylistic and that Imavov could have a definitive round.
The host views Borralho as the far superior fighter in fight IQ and overall MMA approach. He acknowledges Imavov can be competitive in striking but expects Borralho to mix it up well, get his grappling going, and win at least four out of five rounds on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov as an underdog, arguing the odds are incorrect and Imavov should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He praises Imavov's striking, footwork, and speed, while noting Borralho's grappling advantage may not materialize. He predicts a TKO finish in round three or four, citing Imavov's moments of excellence and Borralho's inactivity.
Zane leans toward Borralho because he believes Borralho has shown improved striking and pace, particularly in the Jared Cannonier fight, and can push a better pace for more rounds. He notes that Imavov tends to gas and relies on wrestling, which may not be effective against Borralho's conditioning. However, he acknowledges that Imavov could have a definitive round or land a damaging shot, making it a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 83 of 254 | 32% | 83 of 254 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 153 of 255 | 60% | 156 of 258 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 50 of 69 | 72% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 83 of 254 | 32% | 57 of 206 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 24 | 82 of 252 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 255 | 60% | 106 of 197 | 26 of 37 | 21 of 21 | 129 of 224 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 12 of 34 | 35% | 4 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 15 of 32 | 46% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 26 of 70 | 37% | 18 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 58 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 37 of 58 | 63% | 24 of 44 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 50 | 38% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 50 of 69 | 72% | 42 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 28 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.
Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.
Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.
JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.
Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 36 of 50 | 72% | 43 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 22 of 48 | 45% | 4 of 19 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 36 of 50 | 72% | 29 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 29 | 51% | 3 of 9 | 8 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 20 of 30 | 66% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Borralho, calling Paul Craig overrated and noting he can be finished. He expects Borralho to dominate and possibly finish Craig. He suggests waiting for prop bets.
Big Brady sees Borralho as the much better striker and believes he will knock out Craig. He notes Craig's poor chin and recent damage taken. He predicts Borralho will take his time and finish Craig in the second round.
Cody picks Borralho, citing his superior wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Craig relies on submission magic but is poor defensively and has been neutralized by good grapplers. Cody expects Borralho to control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Caio Borralho. He emphasizes that Borralho is a great striker, noting his Contender Series wins over Aaron Jeffery and Jesse Murray were striking performances. Vreeland thinks people forget Borralho's striking because he is Brazilian and assumed to be a jiu-jitsu specialist. He believes Borralho can finish Paul Craig on the feet or on the ground, as Craig is a BJJ specialist but Borralho has the skills to avoid submissions and wear him down. Vreeland also mentions Craig's cardio concerns at middleweight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Borralho by decision, citing his superior jiu-jitsu (Damaian Maya black belt) and well-rounded game. He notes that Craig's only path is submission, but Borralho's grappling defense should neutralize that. He highlights Borralho's decision-heavy record and suggests the decision prop at +200 as a better value than the -600 moneyline.
Jeff Fox picks Caio Borralho despite the steep -550 line. He notes that Borralho has the striking ability to keep the fight standing and potentially knock out Paul Craig, as Borralho stated in an interview. Fox also believes Borralho can replicate what Brendan Allen did on the ground, as he has the pressure and submission defense to avoid Craig's submissions early and wear him down. He questions Craig's cardio at middleweight, noting he appeared to quit in the Allen fight. Fox also highlights Borralho's underrated striking, pointing to his Contender Series performances where he beat Aaron Jeffery on the feet and knocked out Jesse Murray.
Borralho is superior everywhere and is one of the hottest Brazilian prospects. He will use grappling defensively early, chip away at Craig, and possibly find a knockout. If Craig slows down, Borralho will take him down and smash from top position. Borralho finishes within two or three rounds.
Paul picks Borralho, emphasizing his superior grappling, wrestling, and durability. He believes Craig's only path is a submission, but Borralho's BJJ black belt and top control will neutralize that. Paul expects Borralho to stuff takedowns and ground-and-pound.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho, predicting a first-round knockout via a stiff jab. He believes Borralho is a well-rounded, big middleweight with enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing, where Craig is less dangerous. He notes Borralho's recent wins over Abus Magomedov and Maxime Gremont, and expects him to chin Craig early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 1 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 70 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 38 of 107 | 35% | 39 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 33 of 73 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 15 | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 38 of 107 | 35% | 19 of 74 | 14 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 38 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 33 | 21% | 5 of 24 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 21 of 42 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 20 of 49 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 25 | 44% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Borralho (-265), Magomedov (+215)
Round 1
On the outside of the top 15 at middleweight looking in, surging Brazilian grappler Borralho (14-1, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) may be one win away from getting a number next to his name. Coming off a loss to future champ Sean Strickland, Magomedov (25-5-1, 1-1 UFC) could surprise many if he pulls off the upset and ends Borralho’s 14-fight unbeaten streak. The third man in the cage is referee Marc Goddard, and the fighters bump fists and nod to one another before engaging. Magomedov switches stances and fakes numerous kicks initially, and Borralho leaps into action with an unorthodox stomp kick to the rear leg. Magomedov swipes out with a leg kick, and Borralho counters with one up high. Borralho darts forward with a jab, and he ducks when Magomedov is about to catch him with a right hand. Borralho pokes out another jab, and the crowd loudly starts chanting “Borralho.” He does not change his approach despite the deafening cheering, instead firing off a head kick and not finding the mark. Both men go for leg kicks, and jabs are traded as well, with neither committing to much of merit. Magomedov tries to corner his foe, and Borralho circles and bounces off the wall to escape a hefty right hand aimed at his mug. Magomedov checks a leg kick and reaches a right hand to the body, and he escapes before absorbing a counterattack. Borralho pushes off with a front kick, and he goes wide with a whipping kick. Borralho shoots in for a double, and Magomedov shuts it down and launches a kick that just misses the top of Borralho’s head. Some damage has appeared on the right side of Borralho’s face, with rapid reddening from the select few strikes that have landed cleanly. Borralho lunges with a one-two, and Magomedov pushes off with his fingers outstretched and jams his pointer finger into the eye socket. Goddard recognizes the foul immediately and pauses the action, and he brings the physician in to check on Borralho’s vision. The Brazilian wipes at his eye, and after a minute of recovery time and a little towel to wipe it out, Borralho is good to go. The two share an embrace to signal that there are no hard feelings, and they get back to it. Magomedov reintroduces himself with a sharp one-two, and Borralho slides out of the way of anything that could follow. The horn sounds to end this less-than-stellar round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
Fists are bumped to start off Round 2, and Borralho strikes first with a kick to the ribs. Borralho jumps with a knee out, but Magomedov is well out of harm’s way. Magomedov crowds his man and slams his fists into Borralho’s midsection, and when Borralho looks to fire back, Magomedov hand-fights and a finger nearly sticks into the eye. Borralho powers out a solid jab, and he gets backed up to the wall and tries to spin to keep Magomedov honest. Borralho sees an opening when Magomedov is advancing, and he cracks the Russian with a right hand behind the ear. Magomedov signals that it was no big deal, and Borralho lands another. Magomedov gets away with another eye poke, despite Borralho’s protests, and Goddard tells Magomedov to keep his hands closed. They both fire off body kicks, and Magomedov adds a leg kick to his effort. Magomedov prods out a right hand, and Borralho misses with a counter. Magomedov steps in with a heavier right, and Borralho aims and fires multiple kicks in response that are largely blocked. Magomedov gets in a single front kick down the middle, and he dodges when Borralho jumps in the air. The power strikes are missing from both fighters, but a jab from Borralho gets Magomedov’s attention. Magomedov offers a high-five after getting tagged with a straight jab, and Borralho lets him crowd him so he can mark him up with a jump knee. Borralho picks up his volume a little after opening a cut beneath Magomedov’s left eye, but time expires before he can do much.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 3
The middleweights hug it out with five minutes to go, and then decide to be more violent than before. The two alternate kicks to the body and power hooks, and Borralho looks for his stiff jab. The jab has caused some damage on the nose and eye, and he aims that right hand at the red areas. Borralho follows a jab with a left hand down the middle, and his jab snaps the head back when he flicks it out again. Magomedov walks into the jab, and Borralho slaps him upside the head with an open hand. Magomedov comes up short with a one-two, and the two are largely relegated to potshotting one another. Another open-handed strike from Borralho lands behind the ear, and he lashes out with an elbow that hurts Magomedov. The Russian acknowledges he is hurt and takes a deep breath, and Borralho charges after him and spins with an elbow. Borralho pours on the pressure and takes Magomedov out of his game, targeting the body with strikes and connecting with a solid knee that buckles Magomedov’s legs. Magomedov slowly sits to his seat against the fence, and Borralho looks to finish the fight and complete the mighty comeback, but Magomedov is tough and surviving despite his fatigue and discomfort. Borralho lowers himself down to pursue a potential submission like an arm-triangle, and after multiple scrambles, Borralho takes the back and gets both hooks in. With one minute to spare, Borralho starts fishing for a rear-naked choke, and he simultaneously fastens the body triangle. The two start talking to one another, and they strangely clap hands while Borralho hangs on from behind. Borralho cannot muster a stoppage, and it remains to be seen if his third-round scorecard is enough to sway things in his favor or towards an even tally, depending on how the first two were scored. The lackluster encounter comes to a close, and the two are happy to be done with fighting one another.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borralho (29-28 Magomedov)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-8 Borralho (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borralho (29-28 Magomedov)
The Official Result
Caio Borralho def. Abusupiyan Magomedov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.
Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.
James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 52 of 74 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 30 of 65 | 46% | 30 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 22 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 34 of 55 | 61% | 19 of 37 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 30 of 65 | 46% | 13 of 44 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 25 of 45 | 55% | 12 of 29 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 26 of 55 | 47% | 12 of 38 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 9 of 10 | 90% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Michał Oleksiejczuk | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Borralho (-360), Oleksiejczuk (+295)
Round 1
Borralho has compiled three straight UFC victories after needing two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series to earn a contract with the promotion. He’s the biggest betting favorite on the card against Oleksiejczuk, who is coming off back-to-back first-round KO/TKO victories. Jason Herzog is the referee for the co-main event. Oleksiejczuk moves in and partially lands a big left. The Pole jabs the body but Borralho answers with a hard leg kick. Oleksiejczuk attacks the body again. The Pole ducks under a punch and lands a stiff counter. Borralho just misses on a jumping knee. Oleksiejczuk digs to the body and then tags Borralho with a two punch combination. Oleksiejczuk counters with a left after absorbing a leg kick. Borralho shoots for a single leg but Oleksiejczuk keeps his feet. They separate from the clinch and Oleksiejczuk wings an overhand that misses the mark. A right hook by Borralho stuns Oleksiejczuk for a moment. Borralho lands a knee and uppercut in the clinch. Oleksiejczuk sits down on an overhand left but Borralho takes it. The Pole with a right hook to the body before clinching. He throws a knee and Herzog calls time, determining that it landed low. Action resumes in short order. A jumping knee from Borralho but Oleksiejczuk is undeterred. A straight left from Oleksiejczuk tags the Brazilian . Oleksiejczuk stuffs a takedown but eats a knee in close. Borralho lands a left hand followed by an uppercut to the body. Borralho gets a takedown from the rear waistlock and he works his way around to the back near the fence. Oleksiejczuk is on all fours trying to survive the final seconds. Borralho lands a few knees to the body before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Borralho
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Borralho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borralho
Round 2
Oleksiejczuk pressures early and he jabs the body. Borralho lands a right hook to the head in response. Oleksiejczuk steps in with a straight left and Borralho answers with a pair of low kicks. Borralho times a double leg takedown perfectly but Oleksiejczuk returns to his feet immediately. Borralho peels the Pole off the fence and settles into half guard. The Brazilian passes to mount and drops a big elbow. Borralho controls one hand and peppers Oleksiejczuk with short lefts. Oleksiejczuk gives up his back and Borralho secures a body triangle. Borralho punches under the armpit and then the side of the head.
The Brazilian then swiftly slides his left arm under the chin of his foe and locks in the rear-naked choke. Oleksiejczuk taps in a matter of seconds.
Borralho has won four straight in the Octagon and has his first finish in UFC competition.
The Official Result
Caio Borralho def. Michal Oleksiejczuk via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 2:49
Cody picks Borralho despite the high price, citing Borralho's superior grappling, wrestling, and cardio advantages. He notes that Borralho is a smart fighter with high ring IQ who will use his grappling to control the fight, even if it's not exciting. He acknowledges Oleksiejczuk's power and chance early, but believes Borralho's path to victory is clear through takedowns and control.
Connor is unimpressed with Borralho's striking, calling it a 'paper tiger' with low activity and poor defense. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's chaotic pressure and durability will overwhelm Borralho, and that Borralho's takedown game won't be enough to control Oleksiejczuk for three rounds. He notes Oleksiejczuk's tendency to gas but believes Borralho lacks the discipline to exploit it.
Paul is intrigued by Oleksiejczuk as a live underdog, noting his power and that he is a superior striker who can keep the fight standing. He points out that Oleksiejczuk has a history of first-round finishes and that Borralho has struggled to finish fights. Paul took a small bet on Oleksiejczuk by KO at +650, acknowledging the risk but seeing value.
Zane agrees with Connor, citing Borralho's poor striking and decision-making. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's pressure and scrambling will cause Borralho problems, and that Borralho's takedowns won't be enough to secure a win. He notes the odds are wide but sticks with his feeling that Oleksiejczuk can do real damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 76 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:44 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 57 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 29 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:45 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 22 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 28 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 3:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 14 of 35 | 40% | 10 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 19 of 32 | 59% | 13 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 7 of 20 | 35% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 13 of 18 | 72% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Makhmud Muradov | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho, noting his slick grappling, well-timed takedowns, and solid submissions. He references that Gerald Meerschaert took down and submitted Muradov, and believes Borralho can do the same. He calls Borralho a contender at 185 and likes the -200 price.
Big Brady picks Borralho to win by decision. He praises Borralho's fight IQ and game plan, expecting him to take Muradov down repeatedly as he did against Petrosian. Muradov has been submitted four times and gassed early in his last fight. Borralho has the cardio and grappling to control the fight, though a submission is possible.
Cody is high on Borralho, calling him a solid prospect with high ring IQ. He notes Borralho's effective grappling and ability to take down and control opponents. Cody thinks Muradov has cardio issues and is not a mega prospect. He expects Borralho to win by decision or submission.
Daniel Levi picks Makhmud Muradov as an underdog, citing recency bias from Muradov's loss to Gerald Meerschaert. He thinks Muradov's volume, technique, and takedown defense (stuffed two D1 wrestlers) will be too much for Caio Borralho. Levi notes Borralho fights with his hands down and may get jabbed up, and that Borralho has not faced someone with Muradov's striking. He bet 2 units at +190.
Borralho has a karate-style stance and blitzing movement that can keep him safe from Muradov's power. He can pressure Muradov, drain his gas tank, and grind in the clinch. Muradov is the better technical striker but has a sketchy gas tank. Borralho by decision is the pick, but the line at -200 is not sexy enough to bet heavily.
Paul is confident in Borralho, citing his slick ground game and ability to take down and submit opponents. He notes Muradov's poor takedown defense and cardio. Paul expects Borralho to get a rear-naked choke finish in round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Makhmud Muradov, citing Muradov's weakness against grapplers. He expects Borralho to tease stand-up early then blast a double leg and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes Borralho's training with Khamzat Chimaev and Darren Till as positives.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 49 of 83 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:09 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 72 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 31 of 61 | 50% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 26 of 33 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 12 of 29 | 41% | 1 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 14 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 18 of 30 | 60% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho but with low confidence, noting the fight is closer than the 2-1 odds suggest. He highlights Borralho's slick grappling and takedowns, while Petrosyan is a high-volume kickboxer with questionable takedown defense. He acknowledges Petrosyan can win if he makes Borralho pay on grappling entries, as seen in his win over Gregory Rodrigues. He may switch his pick by fight week.
Big Brady confidently picks Caio Borralho, highlighting his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is non-existent and that he gives up his back frequently. Brady believes Borralho will take the fight to the mat, take Petrosyan's back, and finish via ground-and-pound or submission. He predicts a first-round finish, though he acknowledges Petrosyan has power and could win if the fight stays standing.
Cody likes Borralho's well-rounded skills and high fight IQ, but acknowledges Petrosyan's toughness and cardio. He thinks Borralho can bait Petrosyan in and get takedowns, where his grappling is superior. However, he's not highly confident because Petrosyan is a live underdog with a solid skill set.
The host bets 1 unit on Armen Petrosyan at +196. He believes Petrosyan is a solid prospect who can deal with Borralho's game. He thinks the line has moved too far in Borralho's favor due to recency bias, and that Petrosyan's defensive grappling is excellent, allowing him to get back to his feet and work on the feet. He sees a potential knockout for Petrosyan. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is not great but his defensive grappling is amazing.
Paul agrees with Cody that Borralho is the pick, but he's not supremely confident. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Borralho's path to victory is through takedowns and grappling. He mentions the over 1.5 takedowns prop on PrizePicks.
The Guru picks Caio Borralho (referred to as Carballo/Kaubour), praising his grappling and size advantage. He notes Borralho out-grappled Gadzhi Omargadzhiev easily and believes he can take down Petrosyan. He predicts a decision win, with Borralho using his reach and transitions to control the fight.
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magomedov (-130); Oleksiejczuk (+110)
Round 1
The main card of UFC Baku kicks off with middleweights Magomedov and Oleksiejczuk, who operate under the auspices of referee Jim Perdios. Oleksiejczuk is southpaw, Magomedov orthodox, and Perdios strikes first with a warning to Magomedov for advancing with his fingers extended. Magomedov kicks the calf. Oleksiejczuk lands an uppercut to the body. Perdios warns Magomedov about the fingers again. Magomedov is active with the low kicks early, and Oleksiejczuk is thus far choosing to eat them and answer with punches. Magomedov clinches and runs Oleksiejczuk to the fence. They pummel for underhooks, and Magomedov hits the Pole with a big knee to the body. Oleksiejczuk shucks him off and they return to space. Magomedov blasts the oncoming Oleksiejczuk with a beautiful elbow that hurts him badly.
Oleksiejczuk stumbles backwards and Magomedov gives chase, dropping a few more punches, then wrapping his foe’s neck in a tight guillotine. Magomedov gets a leg up over the back and the choke is lethal. Oleksiejczuk taps, but goes out before Perdios can get there to stop the fight.
Very impressive work from Abus Magomedov.
The Official Result
Abus Magomedov def. Michal Oleksiejczuk R1 3:25 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AJ picks Oleksiejczuk by knockout, citing Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. Oleksiejczuk has improved grappling defense and power, and should survive the first round to take over and finish Magomedov in the second or third.
AJ DeVito is confident that Michał Oleksiejczuk will defeat Abusupiyan Magomedov, who he believes is declining and has a weak will to win. He expects Oleksiejczuk to win by KO in round two or three, citing Magomedov's tendency to gas and melt under pressure. He likes the moneyline at -115 and also mentions the KO prop at +175.
AJ picks Oleksiejczuk as an underdog, believing he has improved his takedown defense with Fighting Nerds and has the cardio advantage. He notes Magomedov fades after the first round and that Oleksiejczuk can put him away with big shots in the later rounds. AJ expects a knockout in round 2 or 3.
AJ picks Oleksiejczuk by knockout, believing Magomedov is fragile and has suspect cardio. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's hands are dangerous and that he will come on strong in rounds 2 and 3, while Magomedov fades. He likes Oleksiejczuk by KO in round 2 or 3.
Angelo picks Magomedov, citing his multiple paths to victory: he can outstrike Oleksiejczuk, outgrapple him, or weather the early storm and win as Oleksiejczuk fades. He notes both have bad cardio, but Magomedov's is slightly better.
Angelo picks Abus because he has multiple paths to victory (striking and grappling) while Michał only has striking. He notes that both fighters have cardio issues, but Abus can fall back on wrestling. He expects a fun start but a boring finish once Abus starts shooting takedowns.
Angelo is surprised Abus Magomedov has flipped to underdog and thinks he wins the fight. He notes that Michał Oleksiejczuk has dangerous hands but poor cardio and grappling, and has been knocking out bums. Abus is more technical and can wrestle, so if he weathers the early storm and gets grappling going, he should run away with it.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by submission. He highlights Magomedov's grappling credentials, having taken down and submitted black belts like Bruno Ferreira. Oleksiejczuk has terrible grappling, submitted multiple times. Brady expects Magomedov to take him down early and submit him in round one, though he notes Magomedov's questionable cardio and durability could lead to a second-round knockout loss if he gasses.
Cody picks Magomedov, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's defensive wrestling issues and Magomedov's wrestling pedigree. He thinks Magomedov can take him down and control the fight, though he acknowledges Oleksiejczuk's power and finishing ability.
Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to upset Abusupiyan Magomedov, citing his improved confidence and training at Fighting Nerds after moving from a garage gym. He notes Oleksiejczuk's marauding pressure, body shots, and recent win streak, while Magomedov has a history of fading in fights. Levi believes Oleksiejczuk's level-up and aggression will be key, though he acknowledges Magomedov's grappling threat.
Jacob picks Magomedov, calling him one of the better plays on the card. He thinks Magomedov is bigger and can bully Oleksiejczuk, who fades hard after round one. He dismisses Oleksiejczuk's win streak as beating cans and notes his grappling holes.
Lucrative James picks Michał Oleksiejczuk (Michelle Alex) because he believes Alex has better cardio, heart, will to win, and power. He notes that Abus Magomedov is more skilled technically but tends to crumble when pressured and has poor cardio. He expects Abus to start well and possibly get takedowns, but predicts the momentum will shift and Alex will finish him in round two. He also mentions that if Abus is a big underdog, he might be worth a bet, but his pick is Alex via KO.
Oleksiejczuk has elite durability and has improved his striking and cardio with the Fighting Nerds. Magomedov has cardio issues and tends to fade. Oleksiejczuk will deal with early adversity and then walk him down for a knockout.
The host acknowledges Magomedov's early danger with explosivity and power, but believes in Oleksiejczuk's improvements to avoid an early finish. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's pressure striking style will catch up to Magomedov, leading to a knockout win.
Paul picks Magomedov, citing his wrestling edge and Oleksiejczuk's poor takedown defense. He notes Oleksiejczuk's cardio issues and tendency to fade, and believes Magomedov can win early rounds and possibly coast. He prefers Magomedov pre-fight but suggests live betting Oleksiejczuk if he survives the first.
The Guru picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his pressure, boxing, and takedown defense. He believes Oleksiejczuk will mitigate Magomedov's kicks by moving forward and land in exchanges. He expects a finish, possibly in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Joe Pyfer | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pyfer (-238), Magomedov (+195)
Round 1
The prelims ended with a middleweight striker’s delight, and it will begin with one as well. Sporting an even finish rate of 75%, Magomedov (28-6-1, 4-2 UFC) can threaten on the feet but is not a slouch on the ground. On the other hand, “Bodybagz” Pyfer (14-3, 5-1 UFC) wants to put him in a body bag. Referee Chris Tognoni—and not Cobra Kai teammate Tommy—will be officiating this contest, so sweeping the leg will be optional. Gloves are touched.
The chants for “U.S.A.” are out early, although Pyfer would prefer to fight at a safe distance. Nothing is thrown for over 30 seconds, and Pyfer suddenly springs into action by shooting for a single. He succeeds in bullying the German to the wall, holding him there until he hunts for a trip. Magomedov uses the momentum against him and drags Pyfer to the mat, where he unloads with a pair of explosive elbows. Magomedov embraces smothers Pyfer while Pyfer holds onto him to prevent much offense coming, and Pyfer sets up a triangle choke that Magomedov walks through. Magomedov dings Pyfer with a power punch, and he climbs on Pyfer’s back when Pyfer stands.
Pyfer tries to use the wall to scrape his foe off, but Magomedov lifts him and slams him down with sheer power. In a north-south position, Magomedov wrangles his foe’s left arm for a kimura while simultaneously isolating the neck with a leg-scissor choke. Pyfer’s face turns a shade of red, but Magomedov abandons it so he can get back to controlling Pyfer. Pyfer looks to kick off with butterfly hooks, and Magomedov lets him reverse-somersault so he can defend a single. Pyfer tries and fails to drag the fight down, and he rips body shots from up close when clinched. Magomedov shoves him aside and splits, and he plants a front kick on the chest. Magomedov reaches with a sharp left hand, and Pyfer unloads a power right that Magomedov shakes his head at. Pyfer walks Magomedov down and slugs him with one more punch before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
Pyfer starts off his corner aggressive as can be, and he slings two big punches at his opponent. “Bodybagz” takes Magomedov off his feet with his rampaging two-hook offense, and he willingly follows the fight down after landing so he can get on top and do some damage. When Pyfer relocates to full mount, he lashes out with a vicious elbow that slashes open a cut on Magomedov’s forehead, and then shifts to the side while wrapping up an arm-triangle choke. Magomedov sits up to get out of the choke, and Pyfer follows him and sets up the body triangle. Pyfer wraps up the rear-naked choke grip on top of Magomedov’s chin, and he squeezes with all his might. Rather than trying to slip the forearm under the jaw, he just keeps crushing the face. Magomedov tries to tough it out until he cannot withstand the pain any longer, and the face crank submission has once again succeeded in the Octagon.
The Official Result
Joe Pyfer def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 1:44 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.
Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.
Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.
Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 73 of 168 | 43% | 74 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 78 of 134 | 58% | 83 of 140 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 41 of 90 | 45% | 41 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 36 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 73 of 168 | 43% | 27 of 90 | 27 of 50 | 19 of 28 | 72 of 166 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 78 of 134 | 58% | 53 of 99 | 19 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 72 of 128 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 7 of 20 | 35% | 0 of 4 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 18 of 31 | 58% | 10 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 25 of 58 | 43% | 7 of 28 | 8 of 17 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 24 of 46 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 41 of 90 | 45% | 20 of 58 | 15 of 24 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 88 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 36 of 57 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-155), Magomedov (+130)
Round 1
This next middleweight affair could shape up to be a wild one before the dust settles. While he has scaled back on some of the antics that cost him wins in the past, Pereira (31-12, 2 NC; 9-3 UFC) is still unafraid to hit a back flip mid-fight even if landing on opponent with stomping feet is illegal. Who needs rules in a sport like this. Russian-born German knockout artist Magomedov (27-6-1, 3-2 UFC) is the much more composed of the two, but is no less dangerous. Referee Nick Berens will need to be on high alert until the conclusion of the bout, one that kicks off with a glove touch. Magomedov stabs out with a long kick to start things off, and Berens warns both fighters for outstretched fingers…and they don’t listen. Magomedov pitches out a front kick that goes wide, and Pereira swipes at his foe’s midsection only to be out of range. Pereira does get in with a left hand, and he is out of range before a counter finds him. Pereira jabs the body with a kick and has his guard raised to block an overhand right, and Magomedov puts on heavy pressure while leading with his front kick. Magomedov kicks the side with the same foot, and he lunges in behind two right hands that brush the Brazilian’s beard. Magomedov nails Pereira with a left hand, who stumbles and needs a second to gather his thoughts. Magomedov is not giving him that second, instead blasting “Demolidor” with a head kick. Pereira takes it somehow and rebounds to jab the body, but his legs might not be fully beneath him yet. Pereira gets backed to the fence, and he ducks an overhand right but falls to his back when Magomedov easily takes him down. Magomedov unloads with left hands and an elbow, and Pereira explodes to his feet. Magomedov hangs on from behind like an angry seatbelt, smacking Pereira upside the head until he climbs on the back and wraps his hooks around the waist. Magomedov releases the grip when he cannot locate the body triangle, and Pereira recognizes this is his moment to move and he moves with a spinning back elbow. Magomedov ignores it and loads up with two overhand rights, unconcerned about anything aimed his direction. Pereira stays on his bike, avoiding exchanges when he can while not committing to much on his own side. He gets off one front kick, and Magomedov strikes back with a right hand and a head kick to end the tepid round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to get going again, and Pereira does land first this time in the form of a low kick. He gets right back on his bike, entirely uncharacteristic for him as he typically presents far more aggressively. Pereira pulls back when thinking about throwing punches, and he is stuck in first gear while Magomedov can do anything. Magomedov jabs the body with his foot—it is not that Magomedov is putting a beating on Pereira, but he is nullifying the Brazilian to a surprising degree. Magomedov eats a knee coming in when shooting for a takedown, and Pereira tosses him aside and strikes with a single front kick. Magomedov gets back to chasing Pereira around, wrapping a right hand around the guard and ignoring a jab to the body coming his way. Pereira’s two punches land harmlessly on the chin, and he barely manages to avoid a booming uppercut and ties Magomedov up in a clinch. When Magomedov is going to use it against him, Pereira releases his grip and backs away. Pereira uses alternating front kicks to stay away, mixing in a few jabs. The crowd is not overly amused by the lack of engagement from the two, with Magomedov winning but not blowing him out of the water. The pace is slow and non-threatening, with Pereira fighting like someone afraid to run out of gas. Unfortunately for him, fighting while backing away is tiring as well. Pereira jabs a few times, and when he gets pushed back with a front kick, he meets Magomedov with the same strike. Pereira sticks out punches, and his front kick lands on the body. Even with volume now on his side, power is minimal and the lack of effective offense disappoints those in attendance and watching live. The less-than-stellar round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 3
The two men hug to start the last round, and the crowd showers them in boos. They answer the call with a simultaneous punch, and Magomedov recovers first and goes to the head and body with a few more punches. Pereira picks things up a little, swinging harder and actually putting some mustard in his fists. Pereira rips a left to the body, and Magomedov kicks his front leg in response. Pereira goes to the body again, and the long jab from Magomedov connects cleanly. Pereira tosses out a high kick that lightly bumps into the shoulder, and his left hooks are out of range. The fans, so frustrated with the match thus far, start taking out their phones and light up their screens while waving them around. Little changes inside the Octagon when they do this, other than a hard right hand and a knee to the body from Pereira. Magomedov drops down for a level change, and Pereira times a knee on the chin that is questionably legal as to whether a knee was down. It is ultimately immaterial, and the chanting made famous from Atlanta Braves fans and coopted by the Kansas City Chiefs faithful serenades everyone listening. Magomedov is irritated by the body work that Pereira has done this round, and he wings a pair of right hands that shake Pereira up. Pereira takes time to recover, and Magomedov allows him to do this as he appears to not have enough in the tank to do more. When Pereira jams a knee to his midsection, Magomedov suddenly looks totally out of steam. Magomedov’s kicks and punches are labored, with Pereira’s much heavier. Magomedov shoots from afar for a takedown with a minute to go, and Pereira pulls him back to his feet so he can score a knee. The Russian nails Pereira with a left hook, and Pereira wobbles but does not go down. Magomedov smacks Pereira upside the head with clean left hands, and Pereira is knocked around but throws back. With seconds to go, Pereira ramps things up, but it is far too late for anything to come from it. The huge bummer of a 15-minute slog is now in the books, and it is time to move on to the next fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Michel Pereira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.
Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.
Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.
The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.
Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 45 of 81 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 21 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 26 of 59 | 44% | 10 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 29 of 71 | 40% | 20 of 59 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magomedov (-142), Ferreira (+120)
Round 1
Batten down the hatches, because an all-offense middleweight clash is about to light up the Etihad Arena for the next few minutes or less. Referee Marc Goddard is prepped and ready for the oncoming insanity. Magomedov (26-6-1, 2-2 UFC), who has seen his fair share of ups and downs in the Octagon thus far, comes to blows with Brazilian slugger Ferreira (12-1, 3-1 UFC). The over/under of 1.5 rounds is currently an even betting line, which mean that prognosticators expect some violence here. Before they swing for the fences, they touch ‘em up first. Magomedov tosses out a jumping front kick, and the two keep their safe range from one another for some time. Magomedov remains in the center of the cage, walking Ferreira down and measuring out a jab that is not there. Magomedov swings a left hook that catches the Brazilian on the chin, and “The Hulk” wears it well. Magomedov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Ferreira changes stances and tosses out a front kick. When Ferreira charges, Magomedov uses his reach advantage to pop his foe with a left hand. Magomedov gets off another chopping kick that is partially checked, and he jabs the chest with the ball of his foot. Ferreira tries his own front kick, and is otherwise relatively offensively muted. Magomedov has a head kick blocked, and he parries a punch and narrowly evades two looping hooks. Magomedov skims the side of the head with a kick, and he jabs and prods with a leg kick. Ferreira’s responding teep kick comes up short, unable to find his distance. Magomedov snaps out a front kick and dodges a counter to walk his man down. Magomedov gets away with a naked leg kick as a right hand counter clips him, and he strings a few punches together to get the Brazilian back. Magomedov jabs the body and blocks a Ferreira blitz, and the disappointing round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start the second round. Magomedov gets on his bike, peppering with jabs, and Ferreira rushes after him preparing to check kicks and reaching out punches. Ferreira marches Magomedov down with two hooks, landing at least one. Magomedov walks the Brazilian down and pushes him back with a jab, and Ferreira darts at him with two winging strikes. Ferreira checks a kick and counters a jab with two punches, and two more come to catch Magomedov standing still. Ferreira pitches out a jumping switch kick as he surges forward, far different than the first round as he may have already matched last round’s strike attempt total just 90 seconds in. Ferreira blasts his man in the face with a right hand, and Magomedov ducks down directly into a head kick that shakes him down to his core. Magomedov desperately pursues a takedown, falling directly into a guillotine choke from the Brazilian. The Russian-born competitor shakes out the cobwebs and pulls his neck out of the choke, working his way around to gain top position, sneak around to take the back, and start fishing for things. Ferreira explodes out of it and walks Magomedov down, hurling heavy leather at him. Magomedov’s legs may not be fully beneath him, and Ferreira opens up with a vicious body kick and a jumping front kick. Ferreira splits the guard with a left hand, and he stops a takedown in its tracks. When Magomedov gets up, he just dodges a left hand in time, but Ferreira reaches him with a fierce left hand. “The Hulk” smashes his man in the face with power strikes, and he spins with an elbow that gives up his back. Magomedov uses the moment to tackle Ferreira to the mat from behind, and Ferreira stands back up despite Magomedov on his back. Magomedov rolls him back down to the floor, and he assumes top position to slow the Brazilian down. Magomedov shifts to half guard to maintain control, where he grinds out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to commence the final round, marking the first time that “The Hulk” has fought beyond the 10-minute mark. Ferreira appears fresh as a daisy, spearing his opponent with a power punch. Ferreira lunges forward to throw out two more, and he dips down to defend a faked takedown and eats a stunning left hand on the jaw. Ferreira raises his arms to ask Magomedov to bring it on, and Magomedov shrugs at him back. Ferreira plods forward, jabbing the body with a kick and pounding a few punches off the guard. Magomedov intercepts his advancing foe with an uppercut, and Ferreira lets his hands fly with two punches and a spinning strike. The spin works to his disadvantage, as “Abus” times an easy takedown that plants the Brazilian flat on his back. Magomedov moves into half guard, and Ferreira scrambles and gives his back up. Magomedov slips a hook in from behind, and he starts looking for a choke before getting the other in. This allows “The Hulk” to escape, and Magomedov looks at the clock and rushes at his opponent to tackle him down to the floor courtesy of a clean double. Ferreira hits his back and hacks with elbows to the back of the head, and he is warned loudly by Goddard.
Magomedov ignores the strikes and steps over to mount and then the side, simultaneously securing an arm-triangle choke. The Russian by way of Germany locks the submission down and imposes his full body weight, and it is just a matter of time with Ferreira trapped in a precarious position. “The Hulk” surrenders before his lights go out,
and Magomedov has now handed Ferreira his first career submission defeat.
The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Brunno Ferreira R3 3:14 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.
Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.
Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.
Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.
Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.
Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.
Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.
The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.
Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.
Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 98 of 168 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:56 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 30 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 48 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 22 of 44 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 |
| Warlley Alves | 16 of 38 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Warlley Alves | 8 of 24 | 33% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Warlley Alves | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Warlley Alves | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gatto (-340), Vidal (+270)
Round 1
Two middleweights with finish rates over 70% collide in this next showing. The momentum is not particularly great for these two fighters, as Magomedov (25-6-1, 1-2 UFC) has dropped two in a row albeit to elite competition, while Alves (14-7, 8-7 UFC) is on a three-fight skid with his last victory in 2021. One man’s fortunes will turn around, barring something unusual, and referee Dan Miragliotta will be the first to know. There is a quick glove touch, and Magomedov walks forward, chambering his rear leg. Magomedov leans in, and Alves lets his hands fly and knocks Magomedov from one side of the cage to the other. Alves gives chase, and Magomedov drags him down to the floor. Alves stands up, and then lowers himself to a knee to prevent from taking knees to the dome. Alves powers his way back upright again, and Magomedov knees him in the side. Alves fights his way out of the tie-up, and he escapes a looping left hand. Alves surges into action, leaping at the Russian with a knee. Magomedov bounces off the cage wall and pushes out a front kick, and the two get sucked into a vicious brawl where Magomedov lands flush with two left hands that rock Alves. Alves backs off, and a jab from Magomedov hurts him a bit more. Alves scoots away, hopping on one foot to the other to shake out any cobwebs, and he throws so hard that he spins around. Magomedov takes advantage of this by dragging Alves down from behind, and he allows Alves to spin so he can climb into half guard and drop down an elbow. Alves bucks and kicks, sitting up and turning to his side. Magomedov pushes Alves back over and elbows him in the face, and he thumps up the side a few times with his fist for good measure. Alves works his way back to the wall, and Magomedov steps into three-quarter mount to pin Alves down and do some damage. Alves still manages to sit up, and Magomedov is on top of him smacking him with his free right hand. Alves muscles his way back up to his feet and goes after Magomedov, firing off a body kick and a right hand to the same target. Magomedov shoots for a takedown, and Alves immediately defends with a guillotine choke. Magomedov tosses the submission aside and assumes top position, but the Brazilian explodes to get into a better position. A scramble results in a north-south take for Magomedov, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to engage, and Magomedov is once more the aggressor as he flirts with a front kick. Alves kicks out his front leg and swarms with flailing fists, and he closes the distance and bullies Magomedov to the wall with a clinch. Magomedov works his way into a takedown effort, dragging Alves to the floor and setting up an arm-triangle choke in a hurry. Alves turns to the proper side and back to defend it, and Magomedov does not mind as he resides in half guard landing punches. Magomedov claims full mount with ease, flattening Alves out and smacking him from both sides of the head. Magomedov tries for another arm-triangle choke, and Alves explodes to break up the setup. Alves sits up, and he looks for a sweep but cannot get the Russian off of him. Magomedov returns to full mount as Alves bucks and twists, and he slashes Alves with an elbow that rips his cheek wide open. Blood pools in Alves’ eyes as he quickly transforms into a 1980s horror movie and Magomedov intentionally moves back to half guard to keep the Brazilian pinned. Alves tries to time bursts of energy to escape, sitting up and shifting in a certain way, even going after a guillotine, but Magomedov laughs it off and holds him down, bludgeoning the veteran to the bell. Alves paws at his face to assess the damage, and appears deflated at how that last round transpired.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 3
The cutperson did great work between rounds, as the inch-wide cut on Alves’ cheek is not leaking as the last round begins. Alves offers a glove touch and decides to go after a hug instead, and Magomedov reluctantly obliges him. When they start fighting, Magomedov sends Alves flying with a front kick. Alves recovers and surges into action, swinging his way into action and blasting Magomedov in the body. Magomedov bends over, possibly hurt from the shin to the liver, and he shoots for a takedown that he lands with relative ease. Magomedov takes the back, and he transitions into an arm-triangle choke. Alves escapes at the right moment to get up, only for Magomedov to hit a clean mat return with a double to put Alves back on his seat. Alves swings down an elbow to the side of the head, and he keeps his gaze trained on the big screen to assess his position and observe how much time is on the clock—it reads about 2:45 as he lingers on it, despite Magomedov striking him every so often. Magomedov climbs into mount again, and Alves bucks and rolls over, only to give up his back. Magomedov wraps one arm around the jaw of his opponent for a possible rear-naked choke or arm-triangle setup, and when Alves turns, he finds himself having to fight off a rear-naked choke after all. Magomedov lets it go when Alves shifts his hips, and he follows a fatiguing Alves around to remain on top and in mount. Magomedov sits up and drills the Brazilian with a merciless elbow, and Alves sits there for a moment to get his bearings after the concussive blow. Alves sits up and snatches up a desperation guillotine choke, and Magomedov is not remotely concerned about the choke. The Russian pops his head out, and fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Warlley Alves via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.
Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.
Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.
Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 1 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 70 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 38 of 107 | 35% | 39 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 33 of 73 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 15 | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 38 of 107 | 35% | 19 of 74 | 14 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 38 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 33 | 21% | 5 of 24 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 21 of 42 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 20 of 49 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 25 | 44% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Borralho (-265), Magomedov (+215)
Round 1
On the outside of the top 15 at middleweight looking in, surging Brazilian grappler Borralho (14-1, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) may be one win away from getting a number next to his name. Coming off a loss to future champ Sean Strickland, Magomedov (25-5-1, 1-1 UFC) could surprise many if he pulls off the upset and ends Borralho’s 14-fight unbeaten streak. The third man in the cage is referee Marc Goddard, and the fighters bump fists and nod to one another before engaging. Magomedov switches stances and fakes numerous kicks initially, and Borralho leaps into action with an unorthodox stomp kick to the rear leg. Magomedov swipes out with a leg kick, and Borralho counters with one up high. Borralho darts forward with a jab, and he ducks when Magomedov is about to catch him with a right hand. Borralho pokes out another jab, and the crowd loudly starts chanting “Borralho.” He does not change his approach despite the deafening cheering, instead firing off a head kick and not finding the mark. Both men go for leg kicks, and jabs are traded as well, with neither committing to much of merit. Magomedov tries to corner his foe, and Borralho circles and bounces off the wall to escape a hefty right hand aimed at his mug. Magomedov checks a leg kick and reaches a right hand to the body, and he escapes before absorbing a counterattack. Borralho pushes off with a front kick, and he goes wide with a whipping kick. Borralho shoots in for a double, and Magomedov shuts it down and launches a kick that just misses the top of Borralho’s head. Some damage has appeared on the right side of Borralho’s face, with rapid reddening from the select few strikes that have landed cleanly. Borralho lunges with a one-two, and Magomedov pushes off with his fingers outstretched and jams his pointer finger into the eye socket. Goddard recognizes the foul immediately and pauses the action, and he brings the physician in to check on Borralho’s vision. The Brazilian wipes at his eye, and after a minute of recovery time and a little towel to wipe it out, Borralho is good to go. The two share an embrace to signal that there are no hard feelings, and they get back to it. Magomedov reintroduces himself with a sharp one-two, and Borralho slides out of the way of anything that could follow. The horn sounds to end this less-than-stellar round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
Fists are bumped to start off Round 2, and Borralho strikes first with a kick to the ribs. Borralho jumps with a knee out, but Magomedov is well out of harm’s way. Magomedov crowds his man and slams his fists into Borralho’s midsection, and when Borralho looks to fire back, Magomedov hand-fights and a finger nearly sticks into the eye. Borralho powers out a solid jab, and he gets backed up to the wall and tries to spin to keep Magomedov honest. Borralho sees an opening when Magomedov is advancing, and he cracks the Russian with a right hand behind the ear. Magomedov signals that it was no big deal, and Borralho lands another. Magomedov gets away with another eye poke, despite Borralho’s protests, and Goddard tells Magomedov to keep his hands closed. They both fire off body kicks, and Magomedov adds a leg kick to his effort. Magomedov prods out a right hand, and Borralho misses with a counter. Magomedov steps in with a heavier right, and Borralho aims and fires multiple kicks in response that are largely blocked. Magomedov gets in a single front kick down the middle, and he dodges when Borralho jumps in the air. The power strikes are missing from both fighters, but a jab from Borralho gets Magomedov’s attention. Magomedov offers a high-five after getting tagged with a straight jab, and Borralho lets him crowd him so he can mark him up with a jump knee. Borralho picks up his volume a little after opening a cut beneath Magomedov’s left eye, but time expires before he can do much.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 3
The middleweights hug it out with five minutes to go, and then decide to be more violent than before. The two alternate kicks to the body and power hooks, and Borralho looks for his stiff jab. The jab has caused some damage on the nose and eye, and he aims that right hand at the red areas. Borralho follows a jab with a left hand down the middle, and his jab snaps the head back when he flicks it out again. Magomedov walks into the jab, and Borralho slaps him upside the head with an open hand. Magomedov comes up short with a one-two, and the two are largely relegated to potshotting one another. Another open-handed strike from Borralho lands behind the ear, and he lashes out with an elbow that hurts Magomedov. The Russian acknowledges he is hurt and takes a deep breath, and Borralho charges after him and spins with an elbow. Borralho pours on the pressure and takes Magomedov out of his game, targeting the body with strikes and connecting with a solid knee that buckles Magomedov’s legs. Magomedov slowly sits to his seat against the fence, and Borralho looks to finish the fight and complete the mighty comeback, but Magomedov is tough and surviving despite his fatigue and discomfort. Borralho lowers himself down to pursue a potential submission like an arm-triangle, and after multiple scrambles, Borralho takes the back and gets both hooks in. With one minute to spare, Borralho starts fishing for a rear-naked choke, and he simultaneously fastens the body triangle. The two start talking to one another, and they strangely clap hands while Borralho hangs on from behind. Borralho cannot muster a stoppage, and it remains to be seen if his third-round scorecard is enough to sway things in his favor or towards an even tally, depending on how the first two were scored. The lackluster encounter comes to a close, and the two are happy to be done with fighting one another.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borralho (29-28 Magomedov)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-8 Borralho (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borralho (29-28 Magomedov)
The Official Result
Caio Borralho def. Abusupiyan Magomedov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.
Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.
James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 1 | 81 of 188 | 43% | 81 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 47 of 101 | 46% | 47 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 1 | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 81 of 188 | 43% | 80 of 186 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 168 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 47 of 101 | 46% | 21 of 68 | 16 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 47 of 101 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 11 of 48 | 22% | 10 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 32 of 60 | 53% | 10 of 34 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 56 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 15 of 41 | 36% | 11 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-145), Magomedov (+125)
Round 1
In the next 25 minutes or less, one of two outcomes could play out, barring something crazy. Either a top contender in Strickland (26-5, 13-5 UFC) holds the line against a surging up-and-comer, or the hard-charging Magomedov (25-4-1, 1-0 UFC) stamps his ticket towards the top echelon of the 185- pound division in a hurry. Referee Mark Smith will be on the final call of the night, and the potentially intriguing striking affair will begin with a glove touch. Magomedov pushes off early with two front kicks, and Strickland brushes his side and absorbs a low kick. Magomedov crashes forward with looping strikes, and as Strickland circles away and lines up a jab, Magomedov pushes off and a finger slides into his eye. Smith calls time, and after 30 seconds, he calls in the doctor. Strickland mentioned that he cannot see, and he takes the cloth from the physician and wipes out his eye. Strickland paces back and forth, trying to clear his vision, and he is struggling to see. After two minutes of attempted recover, Strickland mentions he has double vision. Strickland states the he is good to go at just under three minutes of time off, and the two clap hands on the reset. Magomedov is quick to loop at front kick at him, and several front kicks follow that in rapid succession. Magomedov digs a kick deep on the upper calf, and he takes a jab and aims a second leg kick to the same spot. Magomedov gives chase, throwing wide strikes, and Strickland’s partial Philly Shell guard is allowing him to block and parry the worst of the strikes. Magomedov slings a left hand that gets around the guard, and Strickland has to shake it out. Strickland prods out with a few jabs, and Magomedov’s volume and power is far higher. Strickland dodges and weaves the power punches, and he circles into a front kick to his midsection. Strickland peppers Magomedov with jabs, reddening the nose up, but Magomedov chambers and fires several harmful leg kicks. Magomedov connects with a straight left up top and one to the body, and he gets backed up with a stream of jabs. Strickland pressures his foe and leans when a right hand brushes past his hair, and he splits the guard with an increasingly steady diet of jabs. Strickland takes a head kick right on the jaw, and Magomedov shoots in for a double and manages to throw the defensively sound Strickland to his seat. As Magomedov attempts to take his back, Strickland scoots out and works back to his feet. Strickland follows one jab with a solid right hand, but he is generally relying on his jab. Strickland takes a clean left hand over the top, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start off the second frame, and Strickland lifts his leg up early to take the sting out of a leg kick. Magomedov swings for the fences with two hooks, and Strickland snipes Magomedov with a one-two. Strickland walks down Magomedov, who appears surprised by the blows, and he stumbles when he meets the cage behind him. Strickland drills Magomedov with another one-two, and he stalks after the Russian putting his punches together. Magomedov’s offense is limited to big counter punches, and Strickland senses his opening and lays into “Abus.” Strickland is in his groove, snapping out sharp jabs and follow-up punches, and Magomedov is reeling. Magomedov shells up, and Strickland accurately gets strikes around it and through it. Magomedov is fatiguing fast, his strikes telegraphed, while Strickland is not missing a beat as he lands with impunity. Strickland rattles Magomedov with a right hand, and he rolls through a counter that does not have nearly as much on it. Magomedov winces and gets backed up to the cage, and Strickland unleashes a vicious combination of punches to mess Magomedov up. Magomedov’s mouth wide open, he backs off while Strickland is comfortable to beat on him. Magomedov digs a pair of huge left hands to the body, but for every one he lands, Strickland gets off five or more.
Magomedov takes a long look at the clock, and he frowns as Strickland jabs his face off. Magomedov crumbles from the methodical bludgeoning, his knees giving way as he slumps his back to the cage. Strickland shoves him over to his side, and he force-feeds his fist into Magomedov’s face again and again without any signs of slowing. Magomedov is barely hanging on at this point, just taking damage, and Smith watches on cautiously until he decides that enough is enough and “Abus” is done.
After likely dropping the first round, Strickland came on strong, reminding the division that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and notching another win at the UFC Apex. A gracious Strickland thanks the fans and says he would not do what he does – or get paid – were it not for the fans. He then declares his love for the country, after calling for either a title shot or “meat” to fight. Whether Strickland ends up getting a crack at the belt after beating an unranked opponent in Magomedov, or he posts up at the Apex for another few headliners, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Result
Sean Strickland def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 4:20 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Abus Magomedov despite Strickland being the favorite. He notes Strickland's high volume and takedown defense but believes Abus's power and versatility will be key. He expects Abus to win early rounds but acknowledges Strickland's pressure could wear him down. He mentions a potential plus 5.5 point buy on the scorecard for Abus.
Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by decision. He notes Strickland has faced much better competition and has five-round experience, while Magomedov has only one UFC fight. He thinks Strickland is the better striker, especially as the fight goes on, and Magomedov's only path is a first-round knockout. He expects Strickland to survive the early rounds and take over later.
Cody is shocked the line moved from -175 to -145, as Strickland is coming off a dominant five-round performance on short notice. He emphasizes Strickland's proven cardio, durability, and volume against elite competition, while Magomedov has only one UFC win over Dustin Stoltzfus and was knocked out by Lewis Taylor in PFL. Cody sees Magomedov's level of competition as far below Strickland's and believes the line is a trap but is willing to bet Strickland anyway.
Daniel leans Strickland due to his proven volume and output over five rounds, citing his 200+ significant strikes against Imavov and 150+ against Cannonier. He acknowledges Magomedov's power and finishing ability, especially early, but sees Strickland's pace and durability as key. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation because Magomedov's decision record (5-1) and power make the outcome uncertain. He notes Strickland's output increases in later rounds, which favors him if the fight goes the distance.
James discusses the matchup at length but does not make a definitive pick. He notes that Abusupiyan has stylistic advantages in wrestling that Strickland hasn't faced recently, and that Strickland's pressure and experience in five-round fights are factors. He says he needs to do more tape before coming to a prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, surprised by the line movement. He highlights Strickland's ability to go five rounds at 185, his volume (182 significant strikes in his last fight), and his ranking as #4 in the division. He notes Magomedov is not ranked in the top 15 and has fought mostly low-level competition. Paul believes Strickland's experience and cardio are decisive.
The Guru picks Sean Strickland, reasoning that Abus Magomedov's only notable win is over Dustin Stoltzfus, which is not enough evidence. He notes Strickland's experience and pressure, and believes if Magomedov doesn't finish in round one, his finishing rate plummets. He predicts Strickland will wear him down and get a late-round TKO or decision, similar to his win over Nassourdine Imavov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magomedov (-265), Stoltzfus (+225)
Round 1
Wrapping up the prelims with a bow, highly touted debutant Magomedov (24-4-1, 0-0 UFC) will finally step into the Octagon for the first time after a number of unfortunate delays. He draws Stoltzfus (14-4, 1-3 UFC) in his first assignment, who will serve as the final U.S.-based fighter on the card. Out of the last 14 wins for “Abus,” he has procured stoppages in 13 of those, with his lone decision coming over PFL 2022 welterweight finalist Sadibou Sy back in 2018. The third man inside the cage for this one will be referee Loic Pora, who stands back while the two men bump fists. Stoltzfus punches his way into an exchange, blocking a kick with his knee on the way in. Magomedov is a man possessed after this brief feeling-out process,
splitting the guard with a Lyoto Machida-esque front kick that staggers the American. Magomedov senses he already has Stoltzfus in danger, and he meets Stoltzfus with an uppercut that knocks him back to the wall. “Abus” releases a left hook and a massive uppercut that wreck Stoltzfus, who crumbles to his back on the floor. Sealing the deal, the German-Russian newcomer drives two blistering right hands into the jaw, and Stoltzfus goes out and gets snapped back into consciousness with the thunderous punches.
Pora cannot get in fast enough to save Stoltzfus from any further damage, and Magomedov has just made a massive statement by destroying Stoltzfus in less than 20 seconds. The stoppage will likely clock in as one of the fastest knockouts in UFC middleweight history, depending on when it was officially called. Wow.
The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Dustin Stoltzfus R1 0:19 via TKO (Front Kick and Punches)
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.
Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.
James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.
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