Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
Career Averages - C.J. Vergara
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-250); Johnson (+200)
Round 1
The UFC Baku main card is about to get a jolt of caffeine, as there’s nothing quite like a men’s flyweight scrap to break up the grind. Almabayev and Johnson are ready to go. The third man in the Octagon is Herb Dean. The fourth man in the Octagon is Johnson’s hair. Both men are in orthodox stance, and immediately trade fast kicks, Johnson to the legs, Almabayev to the body. Johnson is switching stances frequently in the early going. Almabayev stalks forward, stance-agnostic: he’s simply kicking the front leg, whichever it happens to be. Almabayev nails Johnson with a left hook, then another. That one draws an acknowledging nod from the American. Almabayev steps into the pocket and, with Johnson perhaps expecting the left hand again, instead grabs a single-leg and treetops him for an easy takedown. Almabayev parks in Johnson’s spidery guard, and Johnson does not let him get comfortable, using his arms and butterfly hooks to keep him off balance. Almabayev stands up out of Johnson’s guard, and when Johnson sits up, he slaps on a guillotine choke. Johnson fights the hands diligently, and Almabayev gives up on the submission. Almabayev lets Johnson up, and takes him right back down, this time into side control. Johnson regains guard just before the 30-second mark. The horn sounds with Almabayev dropping punches from full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle of the cage and unleash a flurry of punches on each other, with both men landing. Almabayev stalks forward behind a pawing lead hand, then spins and digs a heel kick into Johnson’s midsection. Almabayev lands a right hand. Johnson is still in possession of his faculties and defending himself, but he’s getting lit up right now. Almabayev tags Johnson with a punch that knocks him down, mostly off-balance, and Johnson springs back up. Almabayev throws another spinning back kick, and this one lands squarely on Johnson’s johnson with a “clock” that can be heard halfway to Samarkand. Joe Rogan, in his compound outside of Austin, Texas, screams about Thai steel cups. Dean gives Johnson a respite and Almabayev a warning, and they go back to work. Almabayev secures a glass-smooth takedown and is all over Johnson, staying snug in top position as Johnson scrambles and looks for a knee shield to get some separation. Almabayev drops a couple of hard punches, then looks to take Johnson’s back. Johnson defends well, getting back to full guard, but Almabayev is relentless, and he makes his way to Johnson’s back as Johnson kneels in the center of the cage. At the 10-second clapper, Almabayev tries for a rear-naked choke, but can’t get anything going before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
Johnson’s corner tells the former Olympic steeplechaser between rounds that this is a sprint, not a marathon, and he comes right out with a couple of long punches and a front kick before giving up yet another easy takedown. Almabayev blunders into a reverse triangle choke and it looks uncomfortable, but not immediately threatening. Johnson gives up the choke and Almabayev settles into his half guard, heavy and low on top. Johnson is active on bottom, scrambling and offering a dozen different looks, and Almabayev just floats brilliantly, staying a step ahead of everything. Johnson turns his back and Almabayev sinks in a body triangle, taking back mount in the middle of the cage with half the round left.
Almabayev is riding a bit high but switches from a body triangle to conventional hooks, then grabs Johnson’s leg, wraps the body triangle back up and hits a Suloev stretch!
Are you kidding me? After such a wrestling and grappling masterclass, what a perfect valedictory by Asu Almabayev.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Charles Johnson R3 3:33 via Submission (Suloev Stretch)
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, citing his consistent wrestling and cardio. He thinks Johnson is unreliable and that Almabayev's takedown threat will win rounds. AJ notes Johnson's getup game but believes Almabayev's accuracy and mixing of strikes will secure a decision.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting him to outwrestle Johnson. He thinks Almabayev is craftier and has better wrestling than Johnson's previous opponents. He notes Johnson tends to struggle against fellow veterans and that the fight likely goes the distance.
Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.
Angelo picks Almabayev, noting that Johnson stays on the outside and lacks forward pressure, which Almabayev needs to be effective. He thinks Almabayev can do what he wants without pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Angelo considers Charles Johnson plus 3.5 at even money, thinking Johnson can win a round and that the fight likely goes to decision. He notes that plus 3.5 covers a win, split decision loss, or clean 29-28 loss, making it a good bet at even money.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.
Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.
Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.
Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.
The host expects this fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He believes Almabaev's ability to mix in grappling at key moments and land big shots on the feet will keep Johnson on the back foot, leading to a decision win for Almabaev.
Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.
The Guru picks Almabayev via decision, but admits he doesn't have a strong read. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and conditioning will be key, but acknowledges Johnson's knockout power. He is not confident and spends little time on the breakdown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-175), Nicolau (+145)
Round 1
A ranked flyweight encounter will wrap up the prelims, as Nicolau (19-4-1, 7-3 UFC) wishes to save his place among the top 10 while on a skid. To do so, he will have to break the 16-fight win streak for the aggressive Kazakhstan native Almabaev (20-2, 3-0 UFC). Referee Keith Peterson will have hands full to keep up with these speedy competitors, although they show plenty of respect for another and not a lick of nonsense as they clap hands before engaging. Almabaev moves to the center of the cage, pawing out his jab, while Nicolau is more jittery on the outside feinting and faking. It takes 30 seconds for the first strike to land, a low kick from Almabaev. When Almabaev tries a second, Nicolau whizzes a right hand over the top just past Almabaev’s head. Almabaev kicks low and then chains another to the body, and Nicolau cannot make him pay for the blows. Almabaev darts in, missing the mark with a booming uppercut. Almabaev jabs the body, and Nicolau is singularly focused on counters. Almabaev spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the Brazilian’s noggin, and Nicolau is still stuck without any ideas. When Nicolau lashes out, Almabaev is there to catch him with a check left hook. Almabaev lands a spinning back kick to the ribs, and Nicolau backs off and eventually aims a left up top and a jab to the body. Almabaev lands another jab to the ribs and gets off a low kick before having to block a counter. Almabaev slams his shin in the midsection of his opponent, and he attempts a Superman punch that is just shy of the mark. Nicolau jabs out with a front kick, misses with a high kick and the tepid round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is a clap of hands to get things going, and Almabaev is quick to crowd his opponent with a right hook and a head kick on the other side. Nicolau delivers a clean calf kick, but it is one-and-done. Almabaev steps in with a knee to the body, and Nicolau catches it and thinks of taking the fight down. They land in 50-50 position and get out of it to reset, where Almabaev scores a spinning back kick to the sternum. Almabaev overswings and gets countered, and he prods out a front kick that brushes past the cheek of his adversary. They time short hooks at the same time, neither man willing to give much grown or commit to a great deal of offense. Nicolau watches an overhand right soar past him, pushing Almabaev away without landing his own. Almabaev shoots in for a single, and Nicolau hops back to the wall, grabs the fence and is dragged to a knee briefly. Nicolau pulls out of the attempt and catches Almabaev with a left hand, and when Almabaev dives after a single, Nicolau hammers him with elbows to the side of the head. Almabaev drags him down, and Nicolau pops up and threatens with a guillotine choke. Almabaev lifts his opponent’s leg up, and Nicolau snatches hold of a guillotine choke and has it locked down. Nicolau rolls to the side and nearly into mount, and Almabaev toughs it out and turns enough to survive. Nicolau gets to his feet, and Almabaev stands too, his shorts nearly down by his waist. Nicolau allows his opponent to pull his shorts back up before engaging, and he surges into action with a few lunging strikes. The round ends with Almabaev tossing out a left hand and a high kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
The last round kicks off with a glove touch, and Almabaev wants to get things going by tossing out a number of low kicks. Nicolau hand-fights and parries punches from up top, and Almabaev sits down on an uppercut that splits the guard at the same time as Nicolau fires. Nicolau stumbles, and Almabaev tackles him over and claims full mount. Under fire, the Brazilian takes further punishment as Almabaev tries to drum him out, and Nicolau pushes his feet off the fence and grabs hold of a leglock. Almabaev turns through what becomes a heel hook to reestablish himself on top, and he sits down heavily in half guard. Nicolau attempts another leglock, and once more Almabaev easily spins through it to never find himself in danger. Nicolau scrambles, turning to his knees, and Almabaev bowls him over to his back again. Almabaev in half guard smothers the Brazilian, nullifying his offense other than the occasional submission setup. Nicolau uses butterfly hooks on the hips to push Almabaev off of him, and he hacks at the Kazakhstani fighter with elbows from his back but is taking heavier strikes from the man on top of him. Nicolau scoots his way towards the fence but Almabaev turns him the right direction to stifle him from wall-walking. Almabaev remains busy while on top, landing punches and elbows without fear of reprisal. Nicolau gets up with seconds to spare, frustrated at himself for being shut down and likely on the losing end of a decision. Time expires, and Nicolau punches the cage wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Matheus Nicolau via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 77 of 109 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 11:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 3:52 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 29 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jose Johnson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Johnson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-470), Johnson (+360)
Round 1
There will be a fairly radical size discrepancy in this next flyweight tilt. At 5-foot-4, the not-undersized Almabaev (19-2, 2-0 UFC) aims to keep his mighty 15-fight win streak intact. As for his opponent, “No Way Jose” Johnson (16-8, 1-1 UFC) heard the critics saying “No Way” to his cut down to 125 pounds. At an even six feet, Johnson will become the tallest fighter in UFC flyweight history when he steps in the cage. Referee Herb Dean checks the two in as they bump fists, and they both try to find their range early. After about 20 seconds, Almabaev aims a leg kick, and when he is a few inches short, Johnson stands back and watches it zoom by as he showboats. Johnson uses his distance to jab with the ball of his foot and his fists, and he plants a heavy low kick on the lead wheel. When Johnson strikes with another kick, Almabaev decides he is sick of playing on the outside and grabs the kick out of mid-air and slings Johnson down to the mat with gravitas. Almabaev moves into the guard of his opponent, and Johnson is busy off his back slugging away with anything he can find. Johnson tries to kick off the hips in search of a sweep or escape, and when that fails, he lifts his legs up high for a possible triangle choke. Almabaev shrugs it off and stays as tight as he can on the six-footer, landing short shots to the body and the occasional right hand to the head. Johnson hacks with elbows off his back before hitting a sweep that allows him to stand back up. Almabaev clings to him from behind before dragging the taller man down, and when Johnson stands once more, Almabaev leaps to take his back. Almabaev gets one hook in and isolates the neck, and he slithers his right arm under the chin. Johnson hand-fights to break up the submission, and he claws Almabaev off of him. Almabaev drags him down to the floor for a second, and he hits a quick mat return and then one more. Johnson pops up every time he is grounded from this position, and Almabaev looks for a trip or some knees to the thigh to stay busy. Almabaev pulls Johnson down from behind, and Johnson spins around and works his way up. The positional exchange in the clinch is where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is no glove touch to start the round, as Almabaev instead wants to measure a perfect wheel kick that smashes into the side of the American’s head. Johnson takes it like a champ and does not so much as wobble, although he takes time to reset. This allows Almabaev to spin for a kick to the ribs, and he plants his feet and shoots for a double. Johnson bowls him over and lands in full mount, but Almabaev keeps moving and turns the taller man over. Johnson locks his legs around the head of his opponent with a triangle choke, but his left leg is beneath the armpit so Almabaev is not overly concerned. Johnson tries to move the submission around and regather his leg grip, and the Kazakh fighter stacks Johnson up until he breaks out of it. Johnson is a little lax when they split, allowing Almabaev to circle around, get both hooks in and start hunting for a rear-naked choke. Almabaev moves over to full mount rather than going for the choke, and this lets Johnson recover his butterfly hooks to push Almabaev back a smidge. Almabaev sits up and elbows him in the chops a few times, and Johnson closes his guard but is still getting worked. Almabaev keeps control from above, stifling the lanky striker and getting off ground-and-pound. Almabaev steps over to half guard while raining down right hands, and he disallows Johnson from any escape attempt. Johnson turns over to give his back up, and Almabaev welcomes this and takes it while getting a hook in from behind. Almabaev softens his man up with strikes until he latches on with a rear-naked choke, and the grip is not right so he lets it go. A few more punches get around the guard before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Gloves get touched to begin the last round, and Almabaev introduces himself with a thudding leg kick and a spinning kick to the ribs. As he plants his feet after the second, Almabaev races forward and tackles Johnson to the floor. Johnson wall-walks to get upright, but Almabaev has his grip around the waist and ragdolls the taller man around the cage wall. Johnson remains on his feet, and he rides out the takedown try of the man from Kazakhstan to wind up in the top position. Almabaev scrambles and inadvertently gives his back up, and Johnson sneaks one hook in. Almabaev is warned for grabbing the inside of the gloves to turn himself about, and Johnson clings to him with a body triangle and keep the back. Almabaev keeps turning until he manages to get enough space in the body lock to spin and move into the guard. Johnson spams short, meaningless punches to the ear, and he slides his leg up for a high guard setup. Almabaev tosses the limb to the side and smacks him in the face with his right hand twice before jamming an elbow into Johnson’s mug. Almabaev steps over to half guard and thinks about setting up an arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to whack Johnson with wide-arcing hammerfists. Johnson appears irritated but in no danger, and Almabaev traps his right arm beneath his body. Almabaev releases it so he can line up a heavy right hand, and he shifts over to half guard on the other side. Johnson turns to get away, and Almabaev secures his back and locks down a body triangle. Almabaev sneaks in a few right hands around the guard to give Johnson something to think about, and he slides one arm around the chin and does not secure it on the other side. Johnson turns to try to break up the choke again, and Almabaev squeezes with every bit of his remaining energy on what looks to be a face crank. The forearm again slips beneath the jaw, and it is tight. Almabaev eats a surprisingly fierce elbow from Johnson, and he continues to crush with his submission arm. The choke does not succeed, and Johnson reaches the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Jose Johnson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.
Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.
Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.
Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.
Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.
Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-535), Vergara (+400)
Round 1
For the third time in his last six fights, Vergara (12-4-1, 3-2 UFC) failed to make weight. He surrenders 30% of his purse Almabaev (18-2, 1-0 UFC), who has not engaged in a Zhekpe Zhek match unlike fellow flyweight countryman Bekzat Almakhan. While Vergara will be putting his two-fight win streak on the line, the 30-year-old from Kazakhstan has won his last 14 outings dating back to 2017. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson, who starts the nonsense-free fight as the two men touch gloves. Almabaev says hello with a vicious calf kick, dropping Vergara to his knees immediately. The American climbs back up, and he is met with a body kick and a right hand. Vergara keeps his hands extremely low, perhaps to prepare for a takedown entry, and Almabaev circles on the outside before spinning to kick him in the chest with a back kick. Vergara finally strikes at the one-minute mark, landing a single leg kick, and Almabaev answers with one to the ribs before shooting for a takedown. Vergara sprawls to defend it, and Almabaev re-enters in pursuit of a single-leg takedown. This time, the Kazakhstani fighter gets it, but only for a moment. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev stays pinned to him and manages to get a hook around the side while Vergara leans on the fencing. Vergara hand-fights to prevent another entry, and Almabaev turns the corner and drags Vergara to his knee. Almabaev hammers the thigh with a few knees before lifting Vergara up and slinging him to the mat. Vergara springs back up, and he stops a second high-amplitude attempt from his opponent. Almabaev lets Vergara turn, so that he can lift him up and slam him down once more. Vergara is able to return to his feet before long, and Almabaev remains tight goes to change levels. Vergara spins him around briefly, only to get warned for grabbing the fence. Vergara lands a knee to force a break, and Almabaev chases after him and drills him in the midsection with a spin kick. Vergara opens up with a big uppercut that gets Almabaev’s attention, and Almabaev responds with a shot in the open cage and succeeds in using a double-leg takedown to ground him. Almabaev moves to side control, and as Vergara turns, Almabaev jumps into full mount. Almabaev floats over to maintain top position as Vergara scrambles, and he ends the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
Almabaev advances out of his corner to move to the middle of the Octagon, and Vergara stays on the outer edge picking away with low kicks. Almabaev spins with a kick that lands in the chest, and he dances back before Vergara can reach him. Vergara lands a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand. Vergara leaves his hands by his side, and he raises one every so often to strike with. Almabaev takes a right hand, and he grabs hold of a single, runs the pipe and drags Vergara to the mat. Almabaev lands in guard and starts smacking Vergara with hammerfists, staying busy with ground-and-pound while working on a guard pass. Vergara slaps Almabaev in the side of the head with a palm, and Almabaev grinds on him and lands occasional strikes. Vergara looks for elbows off his back, and he keeps the Kazakhstani fighter in his guard. Almabaev slides to half guard and presses Vergara down to pursue an arm-triangle choke. Vergara sits up, and he gets his arm controlled like a seat belt and slugged in the face. Vergara turns to his side and stands, and Almabaev lifts him up and slams him to the canvas, where he lands in immediate back control. Vergara twists, and Almabaev flows and follows him to continue connecting with some offense. Vergara explodes but is unable to get off of his back, and he tries to scoot towards the wall. Almabaev lays into him with several unanswered right hands, until Vergara flattens himself out. Almabaev falls off the back when Vergara stands, and Vergara ducks a spinning back fist and blocks a head kick before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Almabaev moves right to the center of the cage to initiate his offense in the final round, and Vergara stands before him and is ready to trade. Almabaev spins with a strike, and Vergara ducks it and counters with a big right hand. Almabaev shoots down low for a takedown, and Vergara answers with a knee that connects cleanly. Almabaev bounces back up, chases after Vergara and kicks him in the side. Vergara squares up and looks to unload with power punches, and that is when Almabaev shoots for a takedown and wrenches the Texan down to the mat. Almabaev circles around to take the back, and he gets both hooks in almost instantly. Vergara times a spin to escape the position, and the two get back to striking range. Almabaev whiffs on a spin, and Vergara sits down on a body kick. Almabaev aims a right up top, spins with a wheel kick that bangs into the side of the head, and he shoots. Vergara stuffs it, and he gets beaned with a right hand that wobbles him. Almabaev follows him and knees him in the head, and Vergara fires back to make Almabaev change his approach. Almabaev goes for another takedown when Vergara kicks high, and he succeeds in grounding Vergara temporarily. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev doggedly pursues a single. Vergara attempts a standing submission to threaten or force a break, and Almabaev steps back and spins with a back kick that does not land cleanly. Vergara loads up on heavy punches, and Almabaev retreats and resets. Vergara lands with a strike or two, but he throws so hard that Almabaev takes him down as the commentary booth groans in frustration as they sound like they are rooting for one fighter over the other rather than calling the action objectively. Vergara gets back up, and Almabaev moves around to take the back and drag Vergara from behind. Almabaev sets up a rear-naked choke, and Vergara hand-fights and keeps his neck free from danger to ride out the position and end the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. C.J. Vergara via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-185), Osbourne (+154)
Round 1
Gary Copeland will be the third man in the cage for this flyweight affair. They touch gloves and Almabaev opens with a low kick right away. Almabaev stays on the outside and attacks with an inside leg kick. Almabaev steps in and connects with an overhand right. Osborne shakes it off and looks for openings to attack. Almavaev loads up for another overhand right and shoots for a single leg takedown, planting Osbourne on his seat in the center of the cage. Almabaev pushes Osbourne to his back and settles into his opponent’s full guard. Almabaev works to create space for ground-and-pound, landing the occasional punch or elbow. Osbourne works his legs up and briefly threatens with a triangle before absorbing a solid left hand. Almabaev is content to work inside guard while methodically landing punches with either hand. Osbourne brings his leg up again, but Almabaev clears the legs and passes to side control. Almabaev lands an elbow that Osbourne doesn’t like, and he transitions to a modified guillotine choke. Osbourne survives until the horn. It's noteworthy that Almabaev is bleeding, presumably from an elbow Osbourne landed from his back.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
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Round 2
Almabaev throws a head kick before shooting for a takedown. Osbourne does a good job using the fence to remain upright before separating from the clinch. Almabaev is throwing big strikes: a head kick, an overhand right and then a spinning kick, which is followed by a failed double leg. Almabaev goes for a couple low kicks, then gets deep on a body lock and trips Osbourne to the canvas. Almabaev works his way to Osbourne’s back. Osbourne gets to a knee before his foe jumps on his back and pulls him down with a body triangle in place. Almabaev lands some punches while hunting for the rear-naked choke. Osbourne briefly has wrist control before
Almabaev deftly slides his right arm around his opponent’s jaw. The choke isn’t completely under Osbourne’s neck, but the squeeze is tight.
Osbourne has no choice but to tap after a few seconds of resistance.
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Ode Osbourne via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 3:11
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
C.J. Vergara - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édgar Cháirez | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| C.J. Vergara | 6 of 13 | 46% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Édgar Cháirez | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| C.J. Vergara | 6 of 13 | 46% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-278), Vergara (+225)
Round 1
It is unfortunate that in the year 2025, the UFC is still depositing a match between two fighters with losing records in the promotion this high on its billing. It originally was a bit lower, but when Pyfer vs. Gastelum fell off, this flyweight encounter shifted up to this slot. If there is a silver lining, it is that one of these two will hold the coveted .500 mark in the Octagon at night’s end. Whether that is Chairez (11-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) or Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. A respectful glove touch starts things off, and Vergara comes out firing with a one-two that is off the mark. Chairez gets behind his jab, take full advantage of his long reach, and they trade low kicks. Chairez just misses with an uppercut, but his jab is already reddening the face of Vergara. Vergara comes up short on his own offense, and Chairez is able to pick at him from his preferred distance. Jabs continue popping Vergara in the face until calf kicks fly his direction, reddening and welting it in a hurry. Chairez lines up a jab and loops a left hook behind it, flooring Vergara for a moment. Vergara gets back up and tries to escape, but Chairez is on him and backs him to the wall with swinging fists. Vergara drops to his knees, and rather than punch his man out,
the Mexican leaps on Vergara’s back and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The submission is almost instantly tight, but it does not slide underneath the American’s chin and is settled firmly on his jaw. Chairez, destined on keeping his 100% finish rate intact, crushes the face crank with all his might. The sheer horsepower from the squeeze is enough for Vergara to surrender
, and Goddard recognizes the tap and gets between them. The victor, completely overcome with emotion, goes to his corner and then drops to his knees in tears, just now processing what he accomplished in front of thousands of screaming fans. Chairez has the building in the palm of his hands, yet he cannot stop weeping.
The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. C.J. Vergara R1 2:30 via Submission (Face Crank)
Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.
Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 3 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 3 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramazan Temirov | 4 of 16 | 25% | 1 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramazan Temirov | 4 of 16 | 25% | 1 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Ramazan Temirov, noting his lightning-fast striking and power. He acknowledges that UFC debuts are tricky, but Temirov seems different with confidence and experience pushing through adversity. Angelo believes Temirov's speed and power will be too much for Vergara, especially if he connects like Daniel Lacerda did. He plans to wait for prop bets before wagering.
Big Brady picks Ramazan Temirov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Temirov is a knockout artist with power, but Vergara is durable and has never been knocked out. However, Vergara was almost knocked out by Daniel da Silva, so Brady thinks Temirov can hurt him. He worries about Temirov's cardio if the fight goes long, but expects early big shots to get the finish. He suggests this could be a good live bet spot if Temirov doesn't finish in the first.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Vergara is a very tough test but Temirov's athleticism and ability to land shocking shots give him the edge. He points out that Vergara is slow and not dynamic, and Temirov's scrambling ability makes him hard to hold down. Connor thinks the odds are too wide in Temirov's favor.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Daniel is very high on Temirov's aggressive, spinning attack style and killer instinct, but he worries about a potential debut stun. He notes that Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not exceptional. Daniel believes if Temirov fights with his usual confidence, he will win impressively, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Vergara in the UFC.
Temirov is a much better version of Vergara, both leaning on striking. Temirov is more explosive, faster, and better with footwork, cutting angles to crash the pocket. He should land big strikes and find a knockout within the first two rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Temirov, praising his finishing potential, explosiveness, and activity. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as 'dog [__]' and notes Vergara's losses and lack of talent. He expects Temirov to win by decision, as Vergara may put up a fight and take a round, but Temirov's youth and experience edge prevail.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Zane thinks Temirov can win if he pushes for the finish, as he is an athletic freak with fast, accurate strikes. However, he notes Temirov has a poor understanding of pace and often wastes time circling. Zane acknowledges Vergara is a tough, persistent pressure fighter who could shut Temirov out if he's lackadaisical.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-535), Vergara (+400)
Round 1
For the third time in his last six fights, Vergara (12-4-1, 3-2 UFC) failed to make weight. He surrenders 30% of his purse Almabaev (18-2, 1-0 UFC), who has not engaged in a Zhekpe Zhek match unlike fellow flyweight countryman Bekzat Almakhan. While Vergara will be putting his two-fight win streak on the line, the 30-year-old from Kazakhstan has won his last 14 outings dating back to 2017. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson, who starts the nonsense-free fight as the two men touch gloves. Almabaev says hello with a vicious calf kick, dropping Vergara to his knees immediately. The American climbs back up, and he is met with a body kick and a right hand. Vergara keeps his hands extremely low, perhaps to prepare for a takedown entry, and Almabaev circles on the outside before spinning to kick him in the chest with a back kick. Vergara finally strikes at the one-minute mark, landing a single leg kick, and Almabaev answers with one to the ribs before shooting for a takedown. Vergara sprawls to defend it, and Almabaev re-enters in pursuit of a single-leg takedown. This time, the Kazakhstani fighter gets it, but only for a moment. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev stays pinned to him and manages to get a hook around the side while Vergara leans on the fencing. Vergara hand-fights to prevent another entry, and Almabaev turns the corner and drags Vergara to his knee. Almabaev hammers the thigh with a few knees before lifting Vergara up and slinging him to the mat. Vergara springs back up, and he stops a second high-amplitude attempt from his opponent. Almabaev lets Vergara turn, so that he can lift him up and slam him down once more. Vergara is able to return to his feet before long, and Almabaev remains tight goes to change levels. Vergara spins him around briefly, only to get warned for grabbing the fence. Vergara lands a knee to force a break, and Almabaev chases after him and drills him in the midsection with a spin kick. Vergara opens up with a big uppercut that gets Almabaev’s attention, and Almabaev responds with a shot in the open cage and succeeds in using a double-leg takedown to ground him. Almabaev moves to side control, and as Vergara turns, Almabaev jumps into full mount. Almabaev floats over to maintain top position as Vergara scrambles, and he ends the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
Almabaev advances out of his corner to move to the middle of the Octagon, and Vergara stays on the outer edge picking away with low kicks. Almabaev spins with a kick that lands in the chest, and he dances back before Vergara can reach him. Vergara lands a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand. Vergara leaves his hands by his side, and he raises one every so often to strike with. Almabaev takes a right hand, and he grabs hold of a single, runs the pipe and drags Vergara to the mat. Almabaev lands in guard and starts smacking Vergara with hammerfists, staying busy with ground-and-pound while working on a guard pass. Vergara slaps Almabaev in the side of the head with a palm, and Almabaev grinds on him and lands occasional strikes. Vergara looks for elbows off his back, and he keeps the Kazakhstani fighter in his guard. Almabaev slides to half guard and presses Vergara down to pursue an arm-triangle choke. Vergara sits up, and he gets his arm controlled like a seat belt and slugged in the face. Vergara turns to his side and stands, and Almabaev lifts him up and slams him to the canvas, where he lands in immediate back control. Vergara twists, and Almabaev flows and follows him to continue connecting with some offense. Vergara explodes but is unable to get off of his back, and he tries to scoot towards the wall. Almabaev lays into him with several unanswered right hands, until Vergara flattens himself out. Almabaev falls off the back when Vergara stands, and Vergara ducks a spinning back fist and blocks a head kick before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Almabaev moves right to the center of the cage to initiate his offense in the final round, and Vergara stands before him and is ready to trade. Almabaev spins with a strike, and Vergara ducks it and counters with a big right hand. Almabaev shoots down low for a takedown, and Vergara answers with a knee that connects cleanly. Almabaev bounces back up, chases after Vergara and kicks him in the side. Vergara squares up and looks to unload with power punches, and that is when Almabaev shoots for a takedown and wrenches the Texan down to the mat. Almabaev circles around to take the back, and he gets both hooks in almost instantly. Vergara times a spin to escape the position, and the two get back to striking range. Almabaev whiffs on a spin, and Vergara sits down on a body kick. Almabaev aims a right up top, spins with a wheel kick that bangs into the side of the head, and he shoots. Vergara stuffs it, and he gets beaned with a right hand that wobbles him. Almabaev follows him and knees him in the head, and Vergara fires back to make Almabaev change his approach. Almabaev goes for another takedown when Vergara kicks high, and he succeeds in grounding Vergara temporarily. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev doggedly pursues a single. Vergara attempts a standing submission to threaten or force a break, and Almabaev steps back and spins with a back kick that does not land cleanly. Vergara loads up on heavy punches, and Almabaev retreats and resets. Vergara lands with a strike or two, but he throws so hard that Almabaev takes him down as the commentary booth groans in frustration as they sound like they are rooting for one fighter over the other rather than calling the action objectively. Vergara gets back up, and Almabaev moves around to take the back and drag Vergara from behind. Almabaev sets up a rear-naked choke, and Vergara hand-fights and keeps his neck free from danger to ride out the position and end the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. C.J. Vergara via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 109 of 181 | 60% | 109 of 181 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 0 | 88 of 195 | 45% | 89 of 196 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 45 of 71 | 63% | 45 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 44 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 0 | 38 of 91 | 41% | 38 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 109 of 181 | 60% | 43 of 102 | 45 of 57 | 21 of 22 | 104 of 176 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 88 of 195 | 45% | 54 of 154 | 19 of 25 | 15 of 16 | 87 of 194 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 20 of 33 | 60% | 4 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 20 of 40 | 50% | 8 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 45 of 71 | 63% | 14 of 34 | 21 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 41 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 30 of 64 | 46% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 25 of 54 | 14 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 43 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Salvador | 38 of 91 | 41% | 27 of 78 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in C.J. Vergara, calling him as close to a lock as you can get. He highlights Vergara's incredible chin, pressure, power, and solid takedown defense. He plans to bet on him but is monitoring the line movement for the best value.
Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara to win by late third-round knockout. He questions Salvador's legitimacy after a terrible debut, citing poor striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ. He believes Vergara has durability and cardio advantages, especially at elevation, and expects Vergara to weather an early storm and finish a fading Salvador late.
Cody likes Vergara's significant strikes over 57.5 on PrizePicks, expecting a striking match that goes into the third round. He notes Vergara's volume in previous fights (71 against Rodriguez) and believes he can reach that number. He doesn't have a strong side on the moneyline but leans Vergara for the prop.
James sides with Salvador as a dog, believing he has cleaner hands and more power than Vergara. He notes Vergara is durable but gets hit often and has been hurt in multiple fights. He thinks Salvador can have big moments and possibly knock Vergara down, and that the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Salvador is a crafty striker who will have an easier time hitting Vergara than he did against Altamirano. Vergara's grappling isn't good enough to ground Salvador effectively. Salvador's output and damage will earn him a decision. I'm taking Salvador by decision.
Paul picks Salvador at plus money, citing his power and size advantage. He notes Vergara's lack of takedown threat and tendency to stay in the pocket, which plays into Salvador's hands. He worries about Salvador's cardio at altitude but believes his power can get the job done early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' but leans Salvador.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 83 of 144 | 57% | 98 of 164 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 | 48 of 117 | 41% | 51 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 | 44 of 103 | 42% | 46 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 63 of 106 | 59% | 74 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 83 of 144 | 57% | 57 of 103 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 49 of 77 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 48 of 117 | 41% | 32 of 94 | 11 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 42 of 106 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 20 of 38 | 52% | 8 of 21 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 44 of 103 | 42% | 30 of 84 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 92 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 63 of 106 | 59% | 49 of 82 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 49 of 77 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.
Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.
Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.
Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.
The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 31 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 6:19 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 29 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 15 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:49 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 22 of 36 | 61% | 14 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| C.J. Vergara | 19 of 30 | 63% | 13 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 13 of 22 | 59% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 |
| C.J. Vergara | 8 of 13 | 61% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 11 of 17 | 64% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-240), Vergara (+200)
Round 1
For the second time in three UFC appearances, Vergara (10-3-1, 1-1 UFC) has come in well over the flyweight limit. Ahead of his pairing with the undefeated Taira (11-0, 1-0 UFC), Vergara clocked in at 129 ready pounds. While collecting 30% of Vergara’s paycheck, Japan’s Taira will try to keep his spotless record intact against a heavier foe. The Octagon ranger for this now-129-pound catchweight contest will be referee Kerry Hatley, and the two fighters slowly move towards one another with no intention of a glove touch. Vergara looks to close the distance early, sticking out a few jabs, and Taira stays light on his feet to respond with a quick high kick. Vergara lumbers towards the longer man, and he walks right into a left hook. As Vergara keeps plodding forward, Taira grabs hold of him, lifts him in the air and slams him down while letting out a yelp. The Japanese fighter lands in side control, and he grips tightly to squeeze his shoulder down on Vergara’s head. Vergara bucks a few times, but he only ends up getting elbowed for his work. Taira attempts to move to mount, and as he does, Vergara times a kick-off to stop the guard pass. Taira keeps moving, and he works his way to north-south position while Vergara traps his foe’s head between his legs with an inverted scissor choke of sorts. Taira shrugs it off and shifts to side control, and he glides into mount. The American times this perfectly to spin Taira around, and he finds himself on top. Taira does not accept this, kicking Vergara off of him and returning them to the feet. They trade kicks, and Taira shoots for a takedown as Vergara is backed up to the wall. Taira jumps immediately to full mount, but this is a short-lived positional maneuver as Vergara pulls him back and threatens with a guillotine choke. This is not the best plan for him, as Taira uses that against him and crushes down with a Von Preux choke. Vergara grimaces and manages to release his grip, and Taira slides to the side and prepares to move to mount again. Vergara skillfully turns Taira over, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to keep Taira honest. The unbeaten fighter grits out of the choke and stands up, where he promptly tees off on his man with punches and a knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 2
Vergara darts out of his corner, but he cannot find his target to start off the round. Taira drifts out of harm’s way and plans a leg kick so heavily that Vergara falls over to the mat. Taira allows him to stand so that he can lay into him with another nasty calf kick. Taira lets his hands go with a one-two, and he surprises Vergara with his left shin. Vergara attempts to respond with a looping left hand, and Taira changes levels and nearly walks into a knee. The American keeps his balance and backs off to score a few punches, and Taira responds with a knee strike and a takedown effort. Vergara backs off to the cage in an effort to keep himself upright, but Taira brilliantly snakes around the side to trip out Vergara from behind, where he lands on his back while claiming back control. Vergara fights off a body triangle from one side, and as soon as he moves to break it, Taira shifts his lefts to the other side. While Vergara attempts to escape, Taira latches on to a rear-naked choke, but it is on the chin. Taira nevertheless squeezes with all his might, hoping for a face crank if he cannot sneak the forearm beneath the chin. The Japanese fighter releases the submission so as to not burn his arms out from attempting an unsecured choke, and he switches to his other side with another rear-naked choke. Vergara keeps his chin down, surviving another choke, and he prepares to escape.
As his opponent takes a breath, Taira transitions right into an armbar, and Vergara stands up. The arm of the heavier fighter is still very much trapped in the armbar, and he considers lifting Taira up to slam him out but he does not have the horsepower to do so. The elbow hyperextends as Taira straightens the arm out and then some, and Vergara promptly taps out to escape permanent damage
. That’s one more win for the still-unbeaten Taira, who now celebrates exactly half of his pro wins by submission.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. C.J. Vergara R2 4:19 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks C.J. Vergara as an underdog, noting that he has takedown defense, pressure, and is a dangerous striker. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds favoring Taira, as Vergara only has one close loss in the UFC. Angelo likes Vergara's chances and placed a half-unit bet at +205 (now +200). He acknowledges some nervousness about backing an underdog at these odds but is confident in his pick.
Big Brady leans toward Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He praises Taira's elite grappling and back-takes, but has concerns about his low striking volume and wrestling. He notes that Vergara throws high volume and could win if the fight stays on the feet. Brady says he's not touching the -240 price but picks Taira to get a takedown and finish with his ground game.
Cody picks Taira by submission, noting his slick grappling and ability to take the back. He points out Vergara exposes his back when getting up and makes mistakes. He likes the submission prop at +350 and thinks Taira will find a finish.
Taira has a similar striking style to Odie Osborne, using length and kicks, but mixes in solid jiu-jitsu and back takes. Vergara is tough and has pressure, but Taira should control the distance and find takedowns. The host is not fully sold on Taira's potential at -230 but expects him to win by decision. He likes Taira but not enough to bet the moneyline.
Paul picks Taira, expecting him to take Vergara's back and control him. He compares Taira's grappling to Ryan Hall or Aljamain Sterling, noting his ability to body triangle and neutralize opponents. He thinks Taira will dominate but is unsure if he will submit or just control.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, believing he has overcome debut jitters and will make significant improvements as a 22-year-old. He notes that CJ Vergara is underrated but gives up positional control and leaves openings in scrambles. He predicts Taira will find the back and choke out Vergara in the second round via rear-naked choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 81 of 143 | 56% | 93 of 156 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 3:14 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 71 of 127 | 55% | 155 of 221 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 48 of 88 | 54% | 52 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 54 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 65 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 | |
| 3 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 2:11 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 36 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 81 of 143 | 56% | 39 of 91 | 32 of 40 | 10 of 12 | 70 of 131 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 71 of 127 | 55% | 42 of 89 | 18 of 25 | 11 of 13 | 45 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 19 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 48 of 88 | 54% | 20 of 52 | 18 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 44 of 84 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 27 of 51 | 52% | 12 of 31 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 13 of 17 | 76% | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 26 of 39 | 66% | 21 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | |
| 3 | C.J. Vergara | 20 of 38 | 52% | 11 of 28 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues | 18 of 37 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.
Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.
Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.
The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.
Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.
The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 93 of 165 | 56% | 122 of 197 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 79 of 194 | 40% | 89 of 208 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 31 of 78 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 70 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 93 of 165 | 56% | 35 of 99 | 51 of 59 | 7 of 7 | 68 of 129 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 79 of 194 | 40% | 61 of 168 | 15 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 77 of 191 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 24 of 52 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 34 of 75 | 45% | 23 of 62 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 28 of 48 | 58% | 11 of 30 | 14 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 26 of 71 | 36% | 21 of 63 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 41 of 65 | 63% | 14 of 34 | 27 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 34 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 19 of 48 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
For the second week in a row, the UFC is offering a pay-per-view-level card to its fans, but unlike last week, this one comes with a $70 price tag. Fourteen fights will stuff the bill in Madison Square Garden, with a pair of championship rematches on tap in New York City to end the night. We kick things off with what should be a fast-paced, violent affair that was once scheduled at flyweight, but Vergara (9-2-1, 0-0 UFC) missed weight by 1.4 pounds ahead of his debut against Osbourne (9-4, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC). The relative UFC vet pays it no mind as he elects to touch gloves while powerful referee Mike Beltran watches on, and let the festivities begin! Osbourne reaches out with a right hand to find his range, swatting a few times out as Vergara looks to close in on him. Both men keep very side stances and stand in front of one another swinging hands, until Osbourne jumps in the air with a flying knee. Vergara is able to get out of the way, and land an inside leg kick on the way back. Osbourne sets up a right hand counter as Vergara appears to need to jump forward to attack, and he preemptively counters Vergara on the way in. A big left hand from Osbourne pounds into the chin of his opponent, but the newcomer wears it well and defends a level change in the center of the cage. Osbourne flashes out a one-two as Vergara is struggling to get his bearings, not quite able to find the distance to land flush. Vergara does pop an advancing Osbourne with a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Osbourne is well out of the way in time for any additional strikes. They clash together as they are playing the range-finding game still, and a solid left hand from Vergara makes Osbourne nod at him. He paws with another to get Osbourne’s attention, and this makes “The Jamaican Sensation” bite down on his mouthpiece and throw hammers. Another big jump knee from Osbourne collides off the guard, and he stops with a kick to the knee after he lands. Vergara tries to defend against a low single, and he grabs the fence to get his balance, which draws loud admonishment from the mustached referee. He is able to remain upright and get separation, where he chips at the longer legs of Osbourne with a few calf kicks. Vergara pressures his opponent with forward movement, and they land single strikes to decent effect. Osbourne snaps Vergara’s head back, and Vergara comes back with a surprising head kick that is barely blocked in time. The close round ends after that exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 2
The fighters meet in the center of the cage, and Osbourne is there to fling up a head kick that does not land. He does, however, get off a right hand on the ear, and Vergara shakes it off. Vergara dips down with several punches to the chest, and a right hand from the three-fight UFC vet draws swelling on the left eye of Vergara. There is a clinch that leads nearly to a body lock, but it is pushed away before anything can come from it. Vergara goes back to targeting the lower half of his opponent’s torso, and Osbourne stands firm and clubs him with a stern right hand. Vergara is able to walk through it and come back with a left hook, only for him to be countered by the longer reach of his opponent. This frustrates Vergara enough to lead into a furious striking exchange, with defense out the window as they throw hammers. Both men absorb some shots and keep on trading until they take a minute to catch their breath. Osbourne lands with a few lefts from afar to open the nose up of the newcome, and blood trickles down Vergara’s chest. Although Osbourne hits a takedown, the scrambling of Vergara allows him to not be grounded for long. Osbourne walks through a body kick to land a few punches, and he gets Vergara to backpedal as he is aiming strikes. “The Jamaican Sensation” sticks and moves, eating a single punch every so often, but his volume is much higher. Two punches to the body from Vergara lead into an open-handed slap, and Vergara’s body shots are successfully connecting when he lets them go. Osbourne backs off and lines up a one-two, and busts Vergara up a little more as another such combination lands. Vergara lands a jab and chains it into a head kick, but Osbourne pushes through it to bowl Vergara over and take Vergara’s back. Osbourne lands a few punches in this quasi-back control until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 3
Meeting in the middle to start off the last round, Vergara throws first with a head kick that is narrowly blocked in the nick of time. Sensing he might be down on the scorecards, Vergara starts loading up on shots, with looping hooks and big power punches. Vergara looses a heavy body kick, and Osbourne clocks him with a right hand to back him away. Vergara does not let him off the hook, swarming him with punches and bullying Osbourne into a clinch to knee him repeatedly. Osbourne backs off as Vergara is pressing the action aggressively, and his hands drop as he shoots in for a takedown. Vergara staves it off, lands a few punches, and then stops another takedown try with ease. Vergara targets a kick to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the liver. The knees keep coming until Osbourne pushes him away, and Osbourne may be gassing but he is still throwing hands. The punches appear to be more arm punches, and Vergara is swinging for the fences. A knee from Vergara makes his opponent attempt a takedown possibly in desperation, and Vergara throws him to his back so that he can climb on top. In his opponent’s closed guard, Vergara starts landing some punches, but the tight guard of Osbourne is holding him from doing much damage. Vergara continues to land ground-and-pound, doing enough to stay in this position, and he keeps Beltran at bay by nailing Osbourne with elbows. Osbourne scoots his way back to the fence, and this is when Vergara steps over to half guard. Seconds tick off the clock as Vergara lands unanswered shots, and time expires while Vergara is smacking his opponent in the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vergara (29-28 Osbourne)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vergara (29-28 Osbourne)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vergara (29-28 Osbourne)
The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. C.J. Vergara via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power edge, versatility, and size advantage at 125 lbs. He believes Vergara's forward pressure and boxing-heavy style will play into Osbourne's counter-striking and range control. However, he notes concern about Osbourne's recent knockout just two months ago, which may affect his chin. He also mentions that Osbourne has switched camps to Syndicate MMA and seems more focused.
Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and wrestling potential, though Osbourne hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He believes if Osbourne implements a wrestling-heavy game plan, he can make it look easy, but if he stands and strikes, it could be risky. Brady sees Vergara as vulnerable on the ground and expects Osbourne to get him down and submit him early.
Cody picks Vergara as a dog, citing Osbourne's history of fading after the first round. He notes Vergara's finishing ability in later rounds and durability. He suggests live betting if Osbourne slows down.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his experience in big fights and reach advantage. He notes that Osbourne has fought on Conor McGregor cards and has been in there with tough competition. Levi acknowledges that C.J. Vergara is a talented dog with a bright future, but believes Osbourne's seasoning and the pressure of a Madison Square Garden debut favor him. He expects a close fight where Osbourne digs deep.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Osbourne's power at 125 lbs and his improved camp at Syndicate MMA. He worries about Vergara's takedowns, as Osbourne is a good grappler but not a wrestler, and could end up on his back. However, he believes Osbourne's striking advantage and the positive camp change will lead to a win.
The host leans Osbourne due to his striking from the outside and sneaky choke game. He expects Osbourne to ground Vergara and look for a submission, noting Vergara's recent submission loss. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Osbourne's submission prop at +285. He has Osbourne parlayed with something else on the card.
Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a pass. He notes Osbourne's talent but worries about his cardio. He suggests live betting Vergara if Osbourne slows down.
The Guru picks C.J. Vergara as the underdog, citing Osbourne's recent flying knee KO loss just three months prior, which he believes is too quick a turnaround. He notes Vergara's momentum from a KO win on the Contender Series and his aggressive style with powerful knees. The Guru also questions Osbourne's weight cut to flyweight and his durability, predicting Vergara will land big knees in the clinch and possibly finish with body shots.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
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