Career Averages - Maycee Barber
Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
Maycee Barber
Katlyn Cerminara
Maycee Barber - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 1 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 1 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Maycee Barber | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Maycee Barber | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber, believing she has improved more than Alexa Grasso and that Grasso has lost confidence. He thinks Barber's wrestling and pressure will be key, but notes the odds are a touch wide given their history. He advises waiting for weigh-ins before betting due to Barber's weight cut issues.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win by decision. He notes that Barber has improved significantly since their first fight, now on a seven-fight winning streak. He expects the fight to be close on the feet but believes Barber's strength and physicality will be the difference, as she can push Grasso against the cage and take her down. He cautions that Barber must avoid getting reversed and submitted, as happened in the first fight, but if she stays on top and is smart, she should win.
Cody thinks the fight is close to 50-50 and sees value on Grasso as the underdog. He notes Grasso's regression but believes Barber's takedown defense is poor and Grasso can win the rematch. He's hesitant but picks Grasso due to the plus money.
Connor notes that Barber has tightened up her striking and evolved a ton as a clinch fighter, landing nasty short shots, elbows, knees, and hockey punches. He believes Barber can force the clinch again and has only gotten better at winning that kind of fight, while Grasso has stagnated and become aimless. He points out that Grasso's recent performances show no plan or goal.
Daniel notes Barber is on a career-best win streak and physically matured, while Grasso has declined since her title win. He expects Barber to bully Grasso and avenge her earlier loss, securing a title shot.
The host initially liked Barber at -149 but missed the odds as they steamed to -153. He still leans Barber due to her power, improved scrambling, and ability to hold her own on the feet. Grasso is more technical but lacks power and is weak off her back. However, the host passes because the current odds (-153) reflect fair value and he cannot give Barber more than a 65% chance.
The host leans towards Grasso as the slicker striker, expecting her to out-strike Barber and win a close decision. He acknowledges Barber's improvements in grappling and clinch but thinks Grasso's technical striking and control will be enough. He notes the odds are wide due to recent momentum and sees value in the underdog.
Paul doesn't make a firm pick, calling it a dog or pass situation. He acknowledges the value on Grasso but doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical density and toughness. He believes Barber's pressure and improved grappling will overcome Alexa Grasso, who he thinks has stagnated. He notes Grasso's recent losses and predictable striking. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28, and suggests the UFC may favor Barber as a fresh contender.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Barber has gotten better at making her fight happen and forcing it on the opponent. He notes that Grasso is aimless and will have whatever fight the opponent wants to dictate. He also mentions that Barber is tough to finish and has only lost by decision, one of which was to Grasso in a close fight where Barber won the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 55 of 85 | 64% | 89 of 130 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 6:20 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 57 of 87 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:21 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 14 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 21 of 25 | 84% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 37 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 55 of 85 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 32 |
| Karine Silva | 21 of 45 | 46% | 8 of 30 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Karine Silva | 8 of 18 | 44% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 21 of 25 | 84% | 18 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 16 |
| Karine Silva | 11 of 16 | 68% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 19 of 29 | 65% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Karine Silva | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barber (-192), Silva (+160)
Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Barber looks to get in range behind her jab, but Silva lands a hard low kick. A “USA” chant breaks out within 30 seconds. Barber is firing off her right hand, but hasn’t quite found the range yet. Silva is having success with low kicks early. Barber kicks the body and Silva answers with another low kick. Barber partially lands a high kick, but Silva takes the opportunity to close distance and take the American down. Silva is trying to take the back, but she’s falling off the side. The Brazilian adjusts the position and locks in a body triangle. Silva almost falls off the side again, but Barber can’t shake free. Silva recovers once again and they’re now seated against the fence. Silva creates openings for some short punches. Silva attacks the choke as they fall to the mat. The arm was only across the face, and Barber frees herself. Silva is still on Barber’s back. Barber is able to spin and take top position with about 20 seconds to go. Barber wastes no time, as she attacks with purposeful ground-and-pound while dodging upkicks until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Round 2
Barber comes out slinging right hands at the outset of the round. Silva with a body kick. Barber lands a combination followed by a low kick. Barber catches a leg and takes Silva to the fence. Silva jumps a guillotine with her back to the fence. Silva adjusts to avoid winding up on the bottom. Barber pops her head free and eventually dumps Silva on the canvas. Silva creates a scramble but inadvertently lands an upkick on the downed Barber. Barber points it out and Smith calls time. The kick lands to Barber’s chin, but Smith tells her it’s only a glancing shot. A doctor comes in to examine Barber during the break. Barber says she’s a little dizzy but she’s ready to go. The action resumes with no point deduction. Barber wastes no time taking Silva down in the center of the cage. Barber lands some solid punches from top position. Silva is turtled, eating punches and fighting off Barber’s hands. Barber is now looking to take the back. In the meantime, she punishes Silva with several elbows to the side of the head. Barber continues to work, alternating between right hands and elbows to the head. Barber pulls her foe back to the mat with her. Rather than hunt for a submission, Barber transitions to top position. Silva looks to frame a triangle from her back and then she rolls into top position with the triangle in place. Fortunately for Barber, there were only a few seconds left in the period.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Round 3
Silva fires a front kick and Barber responds with a pair of leg kicks. Barber pumps her jab into Silva’s face. Barber partially lands a high kick. Silva marches forward, and Barber lands a front kick. The flyweights nearly clash heads during an exchange. Barber lands a front kick down the middle. A left gets through for Barber, and Silva shoots for a takedown against the fence. Silva lands the takedown and is in her foe’s full guard. Barber is active with her guard, and Silva falls back for a heel hook. Barber scoots away, but Silva switches focus to the other leg. Barber frees herself and scrambles into top position with 2:00 to go. Silva wants to set up a triangle from her back. Silva can’t quite complete the maneuver, and Barber stacks her up. Barber stands and kicks her foe’s legs. Barber eats an upkick and then shoves Silva into the fence as she stands. Silva is taken down one more time at the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber (29-28 Barber)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)
The Official Result
Maycee Barber def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Maycee Barber assuming she is healthy after recent medical issues including a seizure. He considers her the more well-rounded fighter with better striking and athleticism. He notes that if she can defend takedowns, she should win on the feet. However, he expresses uncertainty about her health and the risk of her being rushed back. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Karine Silva, citing Barber's long layoff, mental and physical question marks, and poor takedown defense. He notes Silva's finishing ability and ground game, and expects Silva to win by decision, though he mentions she could win by submission.
Cody leans toward Barber, citing her power and striking advantage. He notes that Barber has never been submitted and has bullied opponents. He acknowledges concerns about her mental state and layoff but believes she will keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He is not fully confident due to the narrative noise.
Connor picks Maycee Barber, citing her improved clinch game and physical strength. He notes that Silva is still the same fighter who relies on opponents' mistakes, while Barber has never been submitted and has shown durability. He believes Barber's physicality and persistence will be too much for Silva.
Lucrative James heavily factors in Maycee Barber's recent medical scare (passing out before a fight) and her history of being taken down. He believes Karine Silva's physicality and black belt jiu-jitsu will lead to a submission, especially early. He notes Barber's cardio advantage but thinks Silva can finish before it becomes a factor. He picks Silva as the underdog.
The host conditions his pick on Barber making weight and looking like her old self. He expects her to be physical enough to keep Silva standing and then use her superior striking to secure a knockout victory.
Paul leans toward Silva, citing Barber's takedown defense issues and Silva's submission threat. He notes that Barber has been taken down in her last six fights and Silva has good wrestling and submissions. He is concerned about Barber's mental state and long layoff. He thinks Silva can take Barber down and submit her.
The Guru picks Maycee Barber, despite concerns about her motivation. He believes Barber's takedown defense and clinch work will neutralize Silva's submission game. The Guru predicts a TKO finish in round two or three.
Zane picks Maycee Barber, noting that Barber has developed a sharp clinch game and is physically strong. He acknowledges Silva's submission threat but points out that Barber has never been submitted and has survived tough spots. Zane believes Barber's physicality and durability give her the edge.
Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield, expecting her to move forward, absorb strikes, and get the fight to the ground where she can dominate. He notes that Maycee Barber's takedown defense is midlevel (53%) and that Blanchfield is tough and relentless. He predicts a decision win for Blanchfield, though she may have close calls.
Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her superior grappling and Barber's poor takedown defense (50%). He notes that Barber has been taken down by lesser fighters like Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee. He believes Blanchfield will have no trouble taking Barber down and controlling her on the ground, leading to a decision win.
Connor picks Barber based on a gut feeling that Barber is the kind of fighter who does not wilt under pressure, unlike the opponents Blanchfield has thrived against. He argues that Blanchfield's entire style relies on breaking opponents' spirits, but Barber's confidence and aggression make her unlikely to fade. Connor also notes that Barber's improved striking and ability to adjust could allow her to win exchanges on the feet, and that Blanchfield's grappling opportunities may be limited if Barber can get back to her feet.
Matt picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield's wrestling and top pressure will be the difference, as Barber lacks the footwork and movement of Manon Fiorot to keep Blanchfield at bay. Blanchfield should get takedowns and grind out a decision, though submission props are also intriguing.
The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield by decision, citing her pressure and takedowns. He notes Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, and Blanchfield is better. He believes the Apex benefits Blanchfield and that Barber's movement won't be as effective. He predicts a competitive five-rounder with Blanchfield winning via grappling.
Zane picks Blanchfield because he believes Barber's clinch-heavy style will give Blanchfield too many opportunities to take the fight to the ground, where Blanchfield's exceptional top control is a major advantage. He notes that Barber has improved her striking and adjustments, but her tendency to explode into the clinch plays into Blanchfield's strengths. Zane also points out that Blanchfield's pressure and volume could overwhelm Barber, though he acknowledges Barber's durability and confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 66 of 152 | 43% | 99 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 84 of 150 | 56% | 122 of 189 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 29 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 66 of 152 | 43% | 44 of 122 | 21 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 43 of 124 | 23 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 84 of 150 | 56% | 59 of 121 | 18 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 107 | 36 of 39 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 22 of 32 | 68% | 9 of 18 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 48 | 64% | 26 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 24 of 56 | 42% | 20 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 22 of 48 | 45% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 20 of 64 | 31% | 15 of 54 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 54 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 41 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.
Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.
Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.
Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 43 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 81 of 124 | 65% | 93 of 139 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 41 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 35 of 74 | 47% | 21 of 52 | 7 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 81 of 124 | 65% | 70 of 108 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 43 of 55 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 35 of 62 | 56% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 29 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 13 of 32 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 62 | 74% | 42 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 26 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her better Jiu-Jitsu, higher level of competition, and solid takedown defense. He notes Maycee Barber has been taken down nine times in the UFC and two of her wins were questionable decisions. He expects Ribas to come forward, stay busy, use takedowns, and win an easy decision. He also calls it an over 2.5 rounds play.
Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ. He notes Barber's poor takedown defense (47%) and that she was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He believes Ribas will easily take Barber down and control her on the ground, unlike Andrea Lee who let Barber get up. He predicts a decision win but warns that judges favor Barber.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Ribas. He highlights Barber's takedown defense issues, especially against Andrea Lee, and believes Ribas's superior jiu-jitsu and top control will be decisive. He notes the minus 200 price is not a betting opportunity but for the show he picks Ribas.
Connor picks Ribas, agreeing with Zane that Ribas is the better fighter. He highlights Barber's awkwardness and physicality but notes that Ribas is a legitimate takedown artist and better grappler. Connor points out that Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, which bodes well for Ribas. He sees a small margin for error for Ribas due to Barber's power and toughness, but expects Ribas to win via superior technique.
Daniel Levi picks Amanda Ribas, citing her technical superiority everywhere the fight goes. He notes Barber's power but believes Ribas's grappling will be the difference, as Barber was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He thinks Ribas will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly finishing. He mentions he got in at -145 and considers -200 a dog-or-pass situation.
The host picks Amanda Ribas to win by decision. He believes Ribas is a far superior grappler and that she can take Barber down and control the fight from top position. He notes Barber's takedown defense issues and thinks Ribas's pressure and pace will be key. He acknowledges Barber's power and explosivity on the feet but expects Ribas to grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Ribas, emphasizing her wrestling and grappling to neutralize Barber. He notes Ribas's improvements and her ability to take down opponents, while Barber has plateaued and struggles with takedown defense. He thinks the plus money on Barber is tempting but can't get there.
The Guru initially leaned Maycee Barber but switched to Amanda Ribas after counter-arguing his own points. He notes Ribas has a better chin at flyweight, a big advantage on the ground, and outpoints at range with reach. He criticizes Barber's win over Miranda Maverick as a robbery and points out that Maverick was recently dominated by Jasudavicius, undermining Barber's credentials. He also mentions Ribas' wins over Araujo and Jandiroba, and her competitive fight with Chookagian.
Zane picks Ribas, comparing the matchup to Jaco vs Eric Anders. He notes Ribas is the better technical fighter with superior wrestling and grappling, and expects her to come out ahead in the chaotic exchanges. He acknowledges Barber's athleticism and toughness but believes Ribas's transitional grappling and ability to work on the ground will be decisive. Zane sees Barber's technical limitations and poor wrestling as key vulnerabilities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 57 of 125 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 48 of 127 | 37% | 66 of 158 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 20 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 39 of 103 | 37% | 10 of 57 | 15 of 27 | 14 of 19 | 34 of 97 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 48 of 127 | 37% | 31 of 97 | 9 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 38 of 113 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 35 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 45 | 37% | 11 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 15 of 38 | 39% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 43 | 39% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 30 | 40% | 1 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.
Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.
Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.
Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.
The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.
The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.
Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 76 of 106 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:09 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 63 of 97 | 64% | 83 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 34 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 21 of 26 | 80% | 35 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 19 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 35 of 62 | 56% | 23 of 48 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 41 | 16 of 19 | 2 of 2 |
| Jessica Eye | 63 of 97 | 64% | 45 of 78 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 51 | 35 of 41 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 16 | 75% | 8 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 21 of 26 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 21 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Jessica Eye | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 18 of 37 | 48% | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 35 of 56 | 62% | 25 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 38 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber, citing her technical striking and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Jessica Eye's toughness and granite chin but believes Barber's superior technique and ability to mix in takedowns will be enough. He notes a slight concern about Barber's mental fragility but still sees her getting the win.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide and recent women's fights have been close. He cites Barber's youth and power as advantages, but expects a close decision. He has no interest in betting this fight.
Cody thinks the line is too wide and women's MMA is unpredictable. He notes Barber takes rounds off and Eye has volume, but he's learned not to bet big favorites in this division. He passes.
Daniel Levi picks Maycee Barber, citing her youth, hunger, and physicality. He notes that Jessica Eye is inconsistent and has health issues, making her unreliable. However, he is not interested in betting at -300 due to lack of value and the risk of injury or poor performance. He believes Barber will likely win but passes on the bet.
The host expects Barber to win but is not confident at -285. He notes that heavy women's MMA favorites have been losing recently. He sees value in the fight going to decision at -250, as Barber is not a finisher and Eye can make it competitive. He does not pick a winner on the moneyline.
Paul says it's dog or pass. He notes Eye's volume and Barber's tendency to take rounds off, but doesn't have a strong lean. He might consider Eye by decision at +375.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical strength, clinch work, and recent win over Montana De La Rosa. He believes Jessica Eye is declining at 35 and that Barber will use her size and strength to push Eye against the cage and land elbows. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting the judges may favor Barber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 50 of 63 | 79% | 80 of 101 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 34 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:22 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 50 of 63 | 79% | 31 of 42 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 40 of 47 | 6 of 8 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 25 of 31 | 80% | 14 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.
Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.
The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.
Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 66 of 152 | 43% | 99 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 84 of 150 | 56% | 122 of 189 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 29 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 66 of 152 | 43% | 44 of 122 | 21 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 43 of 124 | 23 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 84 of 150 | 56% | 59 of 121 | 18 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 107 | 36 of 39 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 22 of 32 | 68% | 9 of 18 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 48 | 64% | 26 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 24 of 56 | 42% | 20 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 22 of 48 | 45% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 20 of 64 | 31% | 15 of 54 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 of 54 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 41 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.
Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.
Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.
Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 0 | 76 of 286 | 26% | 76 of 286 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 98 of 279 | 35% | 99 of 280 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 25 of 86 | 29% | 25 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 23 of 94 | 24% | 23 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 43 of 95 | 45% | 43 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 0 | 28 of 106 | 26% | 28 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 26 of 100 | 26% | 27 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | 76 of 286 | 26% | 35 of 223 | 21 of 40 | 20 of 23 | 72 of 278 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 98 of 279 | 35% | 58 of 225 | 16 of 28 | 24 of 26 | 96 of 273 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manon Fiorot | 25 of 86 | 29% | 13 of 65 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 25 of 84 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 29 of 84 | 34% | 15 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manon Fiorot | 23 of 94 | 24% | 12 of 74 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 91 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 43 of 95 | 45% | 29 of 76 | 7 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manon Fiorot | 28 of 106 | 26% | 10 of 84 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 103 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 26 of 100 | 26% | 14 of 85 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 24 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.
Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.
Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.
Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.
Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.
Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.
Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.
Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 63 of 222 | 28% | 71 of 230 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 55 of 169 | 32% | 84 of 204 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 62 | 32% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 15 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 28 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 19 of 99 | 19% | 19 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 33 of 89 | 37% | 41 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 63 of 222 | 28% | 42 of 175 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 56 of 210 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 55 of 169 | 32% | 28 of 124 | 8 of 23 | 19 of 22 | 49 of 156 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 62 | 32% | 13 of 46 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 24 of 61 | 39% | 17 of 48 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 15 of 46 | 32% | 7 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 19 of 99 | 19% | 12 of 81 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Ribas | 33 of 89 | 37% | 16 of 62 | 5 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 32 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.
Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 72 of 177 | 40% | 81 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 52 of 171 | 30% | 60 of 180 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 23 of 90 | 25% | 24 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 72 of 177 | 40% | 44 of 136 | 21 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 68 of 171 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 52 of 171 | 30% | 31 of 143 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 20 | 48 of 167 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 16 of 41 | 39% | 8 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 15 of 49 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 36 of 85 | 42% | 26 of 69 | 7 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 23 of 90 | 25% | 15 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.
Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.
Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.
Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.
The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.
Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 127 of 292 | 43% | 135 of 300 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 89 of 196 | 45% | 129 of 238 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 58 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 55 of 125 | 44% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 35 of 92 | 38% | 35 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 127 of 292 | 43% | 87 of 236 | 31 of 46 | 9 of 10 | 121 of 286 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 89 of 196 | 45% | 60 of 162 | 24 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 85 of 192 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 37 of 91 | 40% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 32 of 56 | 57% | 17 of 38 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 76 | 46% | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 55 of 125 | 44% | 42 of 107 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 35 of 92 | 38% | 24 of 79 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.
Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.
The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.
Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 69 of 230 | 30% | 69 of 230 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 60 of 197 | 30% | 60 of 197 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 27 of 72 | 37% | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 24 of 80 | 30% | 24 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 17 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 78 | 23% | 18 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 69 of 230 | 30% | 45 of 190 | 11 of 22 | 13 of 18 | 68 of 227 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 60 of 197 | 30% | 31 of 134 | 17 of 46 | 12 of 17 | 59 of 196 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 27 of 72 | 37% | 11 of 51 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 27 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 21 of 60 | 35% | 11 of 42 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 24 of 80 | 30% | 19 of 71 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 17 of 71 | 23% | 8 of 51 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 78 | 23% | 15 of 68 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 22 of 66 | 33% | 12 of 41 | 7 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.
Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.
The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.
The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 1 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 62 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 1 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 62 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 28 of 43 | 65% | 11 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 28 of 43 | 65% | 11 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 73 of 108 | 67% | 200 of 240 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 70 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 83 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 63 | 55% | 47 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 73 of 108 | 67% | 55 of 81 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 55 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 25 of 64 | 39% | 14 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 24 | 83% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 21 | 85% | 16 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 19 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 63 | 55% | 22 of 43 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 54 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.
Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.
Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.
Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.
Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.
The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.
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