UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 7"
Reach 84.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Robelis Despaigne
2.11 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
2.54 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
4.55 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Robelis Despaigne
Moneyline
FanDuel -375
KO/TKO
BetWay -250
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetWay +1800
Josh Parisian
Moneyline
Caesars +320
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Robelis Despaigne - Fight History
LOSS vs Austen Lane
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 23 of 38 60% 78 of 110 3 of 8 37% 0 0 8:58
Robelis Despaigne 0 31 of 46 67% 48 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 21 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:19
Robelis Despaigne 0 4 of 4 100% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Austen Lane 0 12 of 22 54% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:53
Robelis Despaigne 0 16 of 29 55% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Austen Lane 0 5 of 8 62% 46 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 13 84% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 23 of 38 60% 7 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 17 of 28 0 of 0 6 of 10
Robelis Despaigne 31 of 46 67% 23 of 38 2 of 2 6 of 6 21 of 36 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5
Robelis Despaigne 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Austen Lane 12 of 22 54% 3 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 7 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robelis Despaigne 16 of 29 55% 12 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Austen Lane 5 of 8 62% 3 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 6 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo believes the UFC is setting up Robelis Despaigne to become a superstar by giving him a favorable matchup against Austen Lane, who has a weak chin and was recently knocked out. He notes Despaigne's Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and athleticism, but acknowledges his cardio issues and takedown defense problems from his last fight. Angelo thinks Despaigne will knock out Lane early, as Lane's chin is suspect and Despaigne's power is overwhelming. He calls the -400 line a discount and expects Despaigne to win easily.

Despaigne by KO
"rebellis wins this fight he's minus 400 I I'm going to say it feels like a discount"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne by first-round knockout. He notes Despaigne's incredible power, with multiple knockouts under 20 seconds, and points out that Lane has five knockout losses, four in the first round. He doubts Lane can get the fight to the mat or keep it there past seven and a half minutes, so he sees a clear path for Despaigne.

first round knockout
"I got to go to Spain here I don't really see much of a path here for Lane outside of the wrestling but I doubt he can keep it up past seven and a half minutes I'm going to Spain …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Connor agrees, picking Despaigne. He notes that Lane is an NFL player who doesn't like fighting and has no heart, while Despaigne has a plan and confidence. He points out that Lane got knocked out by Greg Hardy in a minute, showing he's not cut out for MMA.

"Hard to argue with that. Yeah."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Despaigne is a bad matchup for Lane, who has been knocked out in several fights. Despaigne can utilize his quick finishing approach to find Lane's chin. However, at the chalky price, Despaigne is not worth a shot; leaning on his round one prop is the best way to get bang for your buck.

round one knockout
"I believe this is a bad matchup for Lane who has been knocked out in several fights and I do believe that despain can utilize his quick finishing approach to find that chin of Lane but at the chalky price …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The Guru picks Despaigne despite his last loss, noting that he wasn't finished and that his opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a proven heavyweight. He highlights Despaigne's size and power advantage, and points out Austen Lane's history of getting knocked out by big hitters. He believes Despaigne has been working on takedown defense and will get a first-round TKO.

TKO in the first round
"rebellis to Spain is going to get this one done by TKO in the first round that's my prediction"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Zane picks Despaigne because he sees Lane as a fighter who doesn't like fighting and has no game. He notes that in their last fights, Despaigne was taken down but came back strong in round two, while Lane was dead after round one. Zane believes Despaigne's confidence and plan will prevail over Lane's lack of heart.

Despaigne opened at -446, now -370; Lane opened at +353, now +303.
"I gotta pick Despaigne."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 52 of 101 51% 130 of 204 3 of 4 75% 1 0 9:49
Robelis Despaigne 0 26 of 52 50% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 6 of 10 60% 34 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:32
Robelis Despaigne 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 54 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Robelis Despaigne 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 37 56% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:33
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 52 of 101 51% 44 of 92 0 of 0 8 of 9 15 of 24 0 of 1 37 of 76
Robelis Despaigne 26 of 52 50% 11 of 36 2 of 3 13 of 13 26 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6
Robelis Despaigne 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 54 46% 22 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 17 of 41
Robelis Despaigne 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 29
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 17 64% 2 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 9 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Despaigne (-192), Cortes-Acosta (+160)

Round 1
A heavyweight appetizer kicks off the main card before the main course between big men. Fastball-throwing Dominican Cortes-Acosta (11-1, 4-1 UFC) will ply his trade against skyscraping power puncher Despaigne (5-0, 1-0 UFC) in a pairing that may not go more than a minute or two. Referee Josh Stewart knows that danger is looming, but he is prepped and ready for what’s about to befall these two fighters. The large fists are not bumped before they get down to business. Despaigne keeps his hands low, and he walks through a leg kick and smashes Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand. Despaigne connects with a few more thunderous punches, and Cortes-Acosta answers his offense by shooting in and securing an easy takedown. Cortes-Acosta lands in half guard, where he holds down the taekwondo star and takes a few elbows on the side of the head. Cortes-Acosta is unable to maintain chest-to-chest pressure, but his sitting on the left leg of his foe prevents “The Bad Boy” from going anywhere. Cortes-Acosta starts softening up the body, and Despaigne flails off his back. Cortes-Acosta wrenches on Despaigne’s right arm to set up a keylock, and he begins to torque it on his second effort. Despaigne wriggles his arm free, turning to his side to prevent from being stuck flat on his back. This position allows him to also defend from the few strikes that come at him. Cortes-Acosta grinds his elbow on him and tries to present a forearm choke, but there is nothing to it. Cortes-Acosta rides out the round on top, dragging Despaigne to uncharted territory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
Despaigne starts the round off with a long front kick, and he backs Cortes-Acosta off with long punches. Despaigne kicks low twice, and Cortes-Acosta responds with one of his own. Despaigne lunges forward with a single punch, and he gets caught backing off with a couple of long strikes from the former baseball player. The two trade leg kicks, and Despaigne unloads a head kick that gets blocked and fires one from the other side as well. Cortes-Acosta shoots for a takedown, and this time, the 6-foot-7 fighter stonewalls him. Despaigne breaks free, and the two big men start trading. Cortes-Acosta lands with heavy hands, and he pushes Despaigne back. Despaigne plods forward and whiffs on an overhand right, and the two are sucking wind two minutes into the second round. Despaigne kicks the ribcage, and wings two punches, and Cortes-Acosta signals to him that he has no sting on his punches. Cortes-Acosta nails his man with an uppercut, and Despaigne decides to tie them up. Cortes-Acosta uses the position to secure a body lock and toss Despaigne to the mat, and he climbs directly into full mount. Cortes-Acosta works the body a few times and lands some to the head, and he postures up and starts battering Despaigne with heavy fists. Despaigne twists and turns, only for Cortes-Acosta to sit heavily on top of his abdomen. Cortes-Acosta slams down a couple elbows and opens up with hammerfists and punches, but they are more for dramatic effect than actual stopping power. Cortes-Acosta drives home a few body shots and then goes to the head with punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights have unexpectedly reached the third round, and their energy reserves are running low. Cortes-Acosta tosses out a half-hearted low kick, and he misses with another as Despaigne loads up on two of his own. Despaigne sticks out a jab that dislodges the mouthpiece of his opponent, and he reaches with a second. Cortes-Acosta checks a kick and mocks his undefeated adversary, and he easily blocks a jumping switch kick. Despaigne kicks his lead leg a few times, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him. Cortes-Acosta gives him one low kick back, and he surges into action with a right hook. Cortes-Acosta slaps a low kick on the front leg, and Despaigne counters him with a front kick that snaps the head back. As the crowd gasps, Cortes-Acosta waves in the air to signal he is fine. Despaigne’s mouth is wide open as his hands are down by his waist, and he walks forward without concern. Cortes-Acosta ties him up and turns him around to push him to the fence, and he scoops the taller man up and deposits him gingerly to the floor. Cortes-Acosta shifts to side control before deciding to move himself back to half guard for control purposes, and he smacks Despaigne a few times and starts talking to someone outside of the cage. Cortes-Acosta bops Despaigne with feeble hammerfists and some light punches, more to stay busy than try to conclude the pairing. Cortes-Acosta is shouting at Despaigne, who is totally defeated and has nothing left to offer. Cortes-Acosta sits up and rains down punches, and Despaigne turns all the way over to grab one leg and defend his mug from ground strikes. Cortes-Acosta keeps hold of Despaigne’s right arm and slams him in the face with his own right until the horrible heavyweight match concludes. Barring something horrendous, Despaigne will be leaving the ranks of the unbeaten, and any confidence of him going far at heavyweight has been shattered to pieces.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Robelis Despaigne via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne due to his Olympic taekwondo background, size (6'7"), and insane power. He notes Despaigne's last four fights totaled 37 seconds, but admits there is no data on his chin or cardio. He acknowledges Waldo Cortes Acosta's toughness and durability but believes Despaigne's physical advantages are too much.

"I got to go rob Bellis he's athletic he's tremendous he hits insanely hard"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to knock out Waldo Cortes Acosta in the first round, likely in the first minute. He is impressed by Despaigne's size (6'7", 87" reach) and his 'death touch,' having knocked out opponents in seconds. He notes that Acosta is not a wrestler, so Despaigne won't have to worry about takedowns. He believes Despaigne is the real deal and passes this step-up in competition.

PrizePicks play: less than 4.75 minutes fight time
"I think rebellis hits Waldo Cortez a Costa so hard that he starts doing the salsa dance and eventually puts him out probably in in the first minute"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody picks Despaigne but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Despaigne has never been out of the first round and has massive power and reach. However, he is concerned about Despaigne's lack of grappling and cardio. Cody prefers the under 1.5 rounds prop, which he parlayed with other unders, as it covers both a Despaigne KO or a potential submission loss. He is not willing to bet Despaigne's moneyline due to the unknowns.

Under 1.5 rounds (-200) parlayed with other unders
"I feel like the under one and a half is probably robis is uh his money line is pretty much in tow with that like he either knocks Waldo out or he gets exposed in this spot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel Vreeland picks Robelis Despaigne, calling himself on the Despaigne hype train. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach (longest in UFC history), Olympic taekwondo background, and brutal knockouts. He acknowledges that Despaigne hasn't proven it against top competition but believes he will knock out Cortes-Acosta, who has been knocked out in a boxing match before.

by KO
"I'm on the Despaigne hype train now and again what does that truly mean I don't know what the ceiling is yet but I know that there's going to be a lot of brutal Knockouts along the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The host expects Despaigne to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive size, speed, and power advantage. He notes Cortes Acosta has never been KO'd in MMA but has been knocked out in boxing, and believes Despaigne's style will overwhelm him. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at even money rather than the moneyline at -200. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges Despaigne's one-dimensional style.

Round 1 KO prop at even money is the better play
"I think that this will be a bad match up for him as rebellis goes out there and finds The Knockout in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta as a confident underdog. He argues that Despaigne is a mystery with no proven grappling or cardio, while Cortes Acosta has multiple paths to victory: volume, cardio, takedowns, and durability. Paul notes that Cortes Acosta has never been knocked out in MMA and has fought tough competition. He believes Despaigne's lack of experience and training at a small gym will be exposed. Paul sees value at plus money and is willing to fade the hype.

"give me the plus money on Waldo aosta Cortez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru picks Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta, noting that Cortes Acosta nearly lost to Jared Vanderaa and has questionable wins. He believes Despaigne's reach and kicking background will be key, and that he can chew up Cortes Acosta's legs. He predicts a TKO win, though he acknowledges the odds are closer than expected.

TKO
"I'm going rebellious to Spain... I think he'll win this fight by TKO."
WIN vs Josh Parisian
TKO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"
Josh Parisian - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
LOSS vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamal Pogues 0 37 of 113 32% 51 of 137 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Josh Parisian 0 33 of 60 55% 49 of 79 5 of 11 45% 0 0 5:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 28 42% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
2 Jamal Pogues 0 13 of 39 33% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Josh Parisian 0 8 of 14 57% 17 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:20
3 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 46 26% 19 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Josh Parisian 0 18 of 28 64% 19 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamal Pogues 37 of 113 32% 19 of 85 14 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 110 2 of 3 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 47 9 of 9 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamal Pogues 12 of 28 42% 7 of 20 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Jamal Pogues 13 of 39 33% 6 of 26 5 of 10 2 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamal Pogues 12 of 46 26% 6 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 18 of 28 64% 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.

Angelo mentions Parisian plus 3.5 at -110 and Parisian by decision at plus money as potential bets.
"I like Josh Parisian this matchup... I think parisian's gonna win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.

Pogues by decision
"Jamal poke should win this fight I mean he has a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.

Cody mentions Pogues came in at 248 on Contender Series. He says he'll pick Pogues but won't lay -240.
"I don't like laying you know low level heavyweights I don't like Lane minus two four I probably won't lay minus 240 here I will be picking Pogues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.

"I'll take Parisian. I think that this is a fight where the fact, you know, we talked about pogues looking decent in on the Contender series... Parisian is bigger. He's just bigger."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.

"I'm gonna go with Jamal um just because I think he has a wrestling advantage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.

Pogues wins by decision
"I like Pogues here... I think he wins this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.

Paul mentions Parisian's takedown defense is poor. He says he won't lay -240 but will pick Pogues.
"I will be picking Pogues because really outside of yeah holding him up against the cage using a little bit of size Advantage... I cannot cannot get on board playing Josh Parisian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.

"I think I'm going to take him here his boxing looked somewhat crisp and he's young and he reminds me the type of guy where if you give him the opportunity in the UFC starts really taking his career seriously"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.

Pogues opened -170, now -246; Parisian opened +145, now +199. Zane says he doesn't understand the spread and thinks it should be a dead-even fight.
"I'll take pokes. He's got something resembling a prospects game. I mean, it's not good yet, but it's enough."
WIN vs Alan Baudot
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 68 61% 102 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:09
Alan Baudot 1 49 of 75 65% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 25 of 41 60% 38 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Alan Baudot 1 38 of 60 63% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Josh Parisian 0 17 of 27 62% 64 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
Alan Baudot 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 42 of 68 61% 27 of 53 11 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 39 2 of 4 18 of 25
Alan Baudot 49 of 75 65% 34 of 59 8 of 9 7 of 7 23 of 47 11 of 11 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 25 of 41 60% 13 of 29 8 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7
Alan Baudot 38 of 60 63% 27 of 48 5 of 6 6 of 6 17 of 37 6 of 6 15 of 17
2 Josh Parisian 17 of 27 62% 14 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 2 12 of 18
Alan Baudot 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
TKO (elbows) R3 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 25 of 41 60% 117 of 147 6 of 8 75% 0 0 11:32
Josh Parisian 0 10 of 16 62% 24 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 14 42% 40 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:05
Josh Parisian 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 15 86% 31 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:27
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 2 100% 5 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 12 50% 46 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
Josh Parisian 0 5 of 8 62% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 25 of 41 60% 15 of 31 8 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 25 3 of 3 9 of 13
Josh Parisian 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 15 86% 7 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 6 3 of 3 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Josh Parisian 5 of 8 62% 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

"I like josh to survive an early power pick up the pace and win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here in josh parisian to get the upset I like his volume the gas tank's not there but he's still able to fight through it and I think he's going to win a volume …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

"I gotta go with maze superior cardio cardio wins fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Mayes by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"Give me Don'Tale Mayes to come out here and win I'm not sure how but just give me Don'Tale as my pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

"if i have to pick in this fight i'm gonna pick josh parisian i agree that the odds should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

fight goes to decision (+105)
"I like the fight goes to decision here plus 105. and in terms of picking aside man i think maze is the side here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

"Plus 170 on josh briesen is it pretty no it's pretty ugly but uh that's that's the side that would take my money if I had to bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with dontel mays here over josh parisian"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 79 of 160 49% 100 of 186 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:23
Roque Martinez 0 64 of 114 56% 245 of 309 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 29 of 59 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roque Martinez 0 26 of 46 56% 84 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
2 Josh Parisian 0 28 of 44 63% 37 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:22
Roque Martinez 0 9 of 18 50% 82 of 99 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:08
3 Josh Parisian 0 22 of 57 38% 28 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Roque Martinez 0 29 of 50 58% 79 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 79 of 160 49% 43 of 118 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 120 30 of 40 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 64 of 114 56% 48 of 98 15 of 15 1 of 1 39 of 84 25 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 29 of 59 49% 12 of 42 13 of 13 4 of 4 20 of 49 9 of 10 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 26 of 46 56% 21 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 30 13 of 16 0 of 0
2 Josh Parisian 28 of 44 63% 17 of 29 9 of 12 2 of 3 10 of 18 18 of 26 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Josh Parisian 22 of 57 38% 14 of 47 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 29 of 50 58% 22 of 43 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.

goes to a decision (+145, 1 unit); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have josh parisian as my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.

win by decision
"I'll take josh parisian to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.

Parisian by decision +333; over 2.5 rounds +100; fight goes the distance +130
"i take prison by decision i really don't think he's putting away rogue martinez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Josh Parisian

Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.

"i'm gonna go parisian and get this one done my man"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.

"i think josh wins the fight i think this is a sloppy mess of a fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.

Martinez by decision at +350ish range; over 1.5 rounds at -185 (chalky but liked)
"i'm going rookie martinez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.

over 1.5 rounds -155
"give me rocky i guess if he had to put a gun to my head just i think you know i'll lean on durability toughness"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Josh Parisian

The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.

spinning back fist KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with josh parisian spinning back fist ko... first round tko for josh perisium"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 114 of 226 50% 123 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Josh Parisian 0 126 of 228 55% 164 of 275 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 56 of 115 48% 61 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 46 of 92 50% 57 of 104 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:10
2 Parker Porter 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 30 of 46 65% 54 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:12
3 Parker Porter 0 34 of 68 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Josh Parisian 0 50 of 90 55% 53 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 114 of 226 50% 71 of 173 35 of 44 8 of 9 89 of 190 25 of 36 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 126 of 228 55% 90 of 190 16 of 18 20 of 20 105 of 198 20 of 27 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 56 of 115 48% 38 of 92 18 of 22 0 of 1 38 of 89 18 of 26 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 46 of 92 50% 33 of 77 10 of 12 3 of 3 33 of 77 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 24 of 43 55% 11 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 37 5 of 6 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 30 of 46 65% 18 of 34 4 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 35 4 of 8 1 of 3
3 Parker Porter 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 8 of 13 4 of 4 32 of 64 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 50 of 90 55% 39 of 79 2 of 2 9 of 9 47 of 86 3 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to grind this fight out Up Against the Cage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"