Career Averages - Curtis Blaydes
Career Averages - Jailton Almeida
Curtis Blaydes
Jailton Almeida
Curtis Blaydes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 174 of 302 | 57% | 214 of 345 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Josh Hokit | 0 | 177 of 293 | 60% | 181 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 58 of 108 | 53% | 77 of 128 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Josh Hokit | 0 | 41 of 80 | 51% | 41 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 56 of 91 | 61% | 69 of 106 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Hokit | 0 | 54 of 86 | 62% | 55 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 60 of 103 | 58% | 68 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Hokit | 0 | 82 of 127 | 64% | 85 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 174 of 302 | 57% | 151 of 276 | 17 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 112 of 226 | 60 of 73 | 2 of 3 |
| Josh Hokit | 177 of 293 | 60% | 164 of 278 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 146 of 252 | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 58 of 108 | 53% | 54 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 76 | 25 of 29 | 2 of 3 |
| Josh Hokit | 41 of 80 | 51% | 41 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 73 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 56 of 91 | 61% | 42 of 77 | 12 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 62 | 25 of 29 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Hokit | 54 of 86 | 62% | 49 of 80 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 60 of 103 | 58% | 55 of 95 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 50 of 88 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Hokit | 82 of 127 | 64% | 74 of 118 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 63 of 104 | 19 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-142), Hokit (+120)
Round 1
After alternating wins and losses the last few years, the UFC heavyweight takedown leader Blaydes (19-5, 1 NC; 14-5, 1 NC UFC) is at a real crossroads at the age of 35. While he still has plenty of time left on the clock, his five knockout losses paint a picture of a beard that is more than willing to crack. Rather than face another top-five-level adversary, he goes way down the lineup to welcome the brash, outspoken Hokit (8-0, 2-0 UFC) to the elite of the division. It’s sink or swim for “The Incredible Hok,” who put his name in headlines this week not for his credentials but because of his antics at media day and the weigh-ins. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for this heavyweight affair. With all the strange bad blood brewing between them, largely because of what Hokit had to say recently, there is no touch of gloves.
Hokit practically sprints out of his corner hurling a big right hand, and Blaydes ducks the first but takes the second right on the chin. Blaydes responds with a single-leg takedown attempt, and Hokit stuffs it and flicks him the middle finger. Hokit gets caught when going wild, and he wobbles and swings his way forward and staggers Blaydes and busts his nose to the side. Hokit is swinging with reckless abandon, hurting Blaydes a few times and gashing Blaydes open. Blaydes drops to his hands and posts off to stand up, and Hokit runs at him with his hands down punching him as hard as he can. Blaydes ties him up and drags him to the floor from behind, and he shells Hokit on the sides of the head until Hoki wall-walks by pulling his fingers in the fencing. Dean admonishes him for the foul, and Blaydes pulls him away from it to throw him down. Blaydes keeps hold of him and wears on him, and on his second effort, he drags Hokit to the floor. Hokit is breathing hard and still holding the fence and top of the cage, and Blaydes works him over from under the armpits and the backs of the thighs.
Blaydes transitions to a single, but he cannot get the leg to drag him down. Blaydes boxes Hokit up, who wanders away and flips Blaydes off again. Blaydes jabs and staggers Hokit, who is starting to fade and runs away. Hokit may be playing possum, but Blaydes lets him have it with a frenetic flurry of fists that rivals some of the craziest heavyweight action one could ever see. Blaydes jackhammers Hokit with uppercut after unanswered uppercut, batting Hokit’s head around like a piñata. Hokit hangs on for dear life while Blaydes slows himself down to not gas himself, and both men are sucking serious wind four minutes in. Blaydes punches Hokit in the stomach a few times until they separate, and Hokit once more displays his middle finger. Blaydes walks him down and knocks his mouthpiece out, shelling him with an uppercut and a vicious elbow. Hokit flips one more bird as the round ends, and he raises his arm in the air to drink in the cheers from the crowd. What a ludicrous round that was.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes
Round 2
Who has more left in the tank after a ridiculous five-minute sprint? Blaydes starts off landing first with a stiff right hand, and Hokit walks him down and busts him in the jaw with his own overhand right. Hokit has his hands low and just wants to brawl, drawing Blaydes into exchanges and stifling the first takedown shot from Blaydes. When he stands up, he flips Blaydes off. Blaydes sticks out his jab and follows one or two, while Hokit lumbers at him and cracks him with an uppercut. Hokit hurls back with a right hand that staggers Blaydes, who is bloodied and bruised but still in this fight. Hokit backs him to the fence and starts delivering fierce uppercuts until he is forced to tie up. Blaydes punches to break out of the clinch, and Hokit gets him back to the body with a right hand and a knee. Blaydes stuns him with a right, Hokit’s head wobbling around like a children’s play toy. Hokit still comes forward and is willing to trade, so Blaydes welcomes this and uppercuts him repeatedly to the chin and midsection.
Blaydes digs a few more to the body before they split up, and he gets knocked back with a one-two. Hokit follows with two more, and Blaydes is on baby deer legs slipping and stumbling across the Octagon. Hokit unleashes a fury and hurts Blaydes for the umpteenth time, and Blaydes is impossibly tough as he takes undefended shots. Blaydes rushes into action and connects with a long stretch of surprisingly powerful punches, and Hokit does not react well when receiving them but still has the wherewithal to keep trading. Hokit goes for a clinch, and Blaydes thanks him for this by elbowing him and driving him a number of uppercuts to the chest and stomach. Hokit hangs on while Blaydes keeps busting him in the chops with uppercuts, and it is Hokit who forces the separation and knees Blaydes flush in the face. Hokit gets off another knee to the belly, and he misses with an uppercut that would fell lesser men. Blaydes keeps to the clinch so he can offer uppercuts, and Hokit bashes him in the chin with a one-two and is met with an equally powerful one. Hokit dances back to his corner at the bell, middle finger waving, and this heavyweight slobberknocker is almost beyond description.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hokit
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hokit
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hokit
Round 3
Hokit raises his arm in the air to pump up the crowd, and when the last round begins, he strides forward to engage. He catches Blaydes a few times, only for Blaydes to rattle his bones with a right hand and a low kick. Blaydes dives after a takedown and falls to the side, so he fights his way back up and proceeds to bash Hokit with punches until they clinch up again. Blaydes uppercuts the torso, while Hokit uses his knees and an elbow once. Blaydes is inspired to us the same for his “Razor” elbows, and he beats Hokit to the punch with a quick one-two. The fighters go punch-for-punch, with Hokit causing further damage as his jab has completely transformed Blaydes into a bloody mess. Blaydes lumbers forward behind two hooks, only one landing, and Hokit gathers a head of steam and connects with a clean uppercut. Hokit keeps his jab going, only stopping when Blaydes racks him up with a right hand. Hokit closes in to land elbows, and Blaydes does the same when in range.
Hokit eats one to land one, and he strings to more together and a knee after it. Elbows are exchanged on the inside, and Hokit breaks off and puts three fists on Blaydes’ face in rapid succession. Blaydes stings Hokit and backs him off, but he does not have the gas tank to hurt him badly. Hokit lands twice, Blaydes closes in to strike him back, and uppercuts come flying from both sides. Blaydes darts out behind a right hand, and he is greeted by a trio of punches. Defense is at a premium while strike totals are off the charts for heavyweights, and Blaydes takes a hard look at the clock that now reads 45 seconds. Hokit does the advancing, hurling punches until Blaydes hits him back. Hokit gets in an elbow when they are up close, and he knees and tees off on Blaydes against the fencing. Blaydes swings back with every thing he has left, and incredibly, these two heavyweights have reached the final bell in what only be described as one of the craziest fights in the history of the division—rivaling the likes of Frye-Takayama and Hunt-Silva. Everyone can now breathe a sigh of relief after that torrid sprint of a battle is over, and these two men can use some oxygen after a sure-fire “Fight of the Year” frontrunner. No matter the victor, Hokit proved that at just nine fights into his professional career, he can hang with the best heavyweights in the world right now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)
The Official Result
Josh Hokit def. Curtis Blaydes via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his experience and wrestling, though he notes Blaydes' poor chin and recent struggles. He is skeptical of Josh Hokit's level of competition and thinks Blaydes can survive early chaos and take over late. He stays away from betting due to the fight's unpredictability.
Big Brady is intrigued by Josh Barnett (Hokit) despite the massive step up in competition. He notes Blaydes has been knocked out five times and has stopped wrestling, while Barnett has shown pressure and power. He thinks Barnett could knock out Blaydes or get takedowns and ground-and-pound. He finds the line weird, expecting Blaydes to be a bigger favorite.
Cody also picks Hokit, emphasizing his athleticism, pace, and wrestling. He thinks Hokit's speed and pressure will overwhelm Blaydes, who has a history of knockout losses and is coming off a knee injury.
Connor picks Blaydes but is hesitant, noting that Blaydes has unlearned MMA by becoming overly technical and anxious. He points out that Hokit is a raw fighter with speed and power takedowns, but his striking is just bravado. Connor believes Blaydes should win by using his wrestling and pressure, but he worries that Blaydes' anxiety and tendency to overthink could lead to a loss. He says he won't be shocked if Blaydes loses, which is stupid for a fight like this.
Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Hokit as an underdog, citing Hokit's superior wrestling credentials, athleticism, and speed. He believes Blaydes' chin is compromised after multiple knockouts and that Hokit can catch him. However, he acknowledges the risk due to Blaydes' experience and reach, and is not as confident as his co-hosts.
Daniel is high on Hokit, comparing his style to a young Cain Velasquez. He thinks Blaydes is on the decline, chinny, and coming off a poor performance, while Hokit has better wrestling and faster hands.
The host believes Blaydes is a good bet because Hokit is an unknown who has never faced top competition, while Blaydes is arguably the best MMA grappler in the heavyweight division. He notes Hokit's striking looks flat and he lacks power, making it unlikely he can exploit Blaydes' weakness on the feet. Additionally, Hokit's cringey antics add pressure and performance anxiety, which historically few fighters handle well. He caps Blaydes at 60% chance of winning, providing value at the current odds.
James picks Blaydes due to his experience and ability to weather early pressure, expecting Hokit to fade after the first round. He acknowledges Hokit's potential but believes it's too soon for him.
Blaydes is a veteran with superior wrestling and experience. Hokit is a prospect but this is a massive step up in competition. Hokit's cardio is questionable after expending energy in previous fights. Blaydes can outwrestle and outpoint Hokit, and may even finish him in rounds 2 or 3. Hokit lacks the knockout power to threaten Blaydes, who only loses to elite power punchers.
Paul is very confident in Hokit, citing Blaydes' durability issues, knee injury, and Hokit's superior wrestling and pace. He believes Hokit will swarm Blaydes early and get a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Josh Hokit. He believes Blaydes is too composed and experienced, and Hokit's wins are over unranked heavyweights. He notes Blaydes moves well and has good grappling defense. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, possibly catching Hokit coming in.
Zane picks Blaydes but shares Connor's hesitation, emphasizing Blaydes' psychological decline and tendency to avoid his strengths. He notes that Hokit is a mess but has speed and power, and if Blaydes doesn't wrestle, he could walk into a shot. Zane thinks Blaydes should easily out-grapple Hokit, but his anxiety and poor fight IQ make this a dangerous fight. He hopes for a motivated Blaydes but isn't confident.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 56 of 95 | 58% | 101 of 143 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 58 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 21 of 33 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 28 of 33 | 84% | 61 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 56 of 95 | 58% | 34 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 20 | 44 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 45 of 108 | 41% | 38 of 100 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 93 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 12 of 23 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 39 | 41% | 14 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 24 of 52 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 28 of 33 | 84% | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 | 22 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 13 of 34 | 38% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo fades Curtis Blaydes, picking Rizvan Kuniev as a lean. He notes that Blaydes has abandoned wrestling and has a weak chin, while Kuniev is decent everywhere and has power. He thinks Kuniev could have success if he gets Blaydes against the cage and drags him down, but acknowledges Blaydes is the bigger favorite. He is not confident in Kuniev but prefers him due to Blaydes' declining career.
Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes but with the caveat that Blaydes could get knocked out, as all five of his losses are by KO. He is not sold on Kuniev, who tested positive for PEDs and looks different off them. Brady thinks Blaydes has better cardio and will drag the fight into deep waters, either getting a late finish or winning a decision. He predicts Blaydes by decision.
Connor picks Blaydes, agreeing that Kuniev's pressure-counter style will lead to clinch exchanges where Blaydes can dominate. He notes that Kuniev is not as dynamic as Almeida, whom Blaydes outwrestled, and that Kuniev's soft physique and lack of athleticism make him a poor matchup for Blaydes. He believes Blaydes should be a much heavier favorite, calling it a 'minus 500 situation.'
The host notes Blaydes was a -340 favorite in March and now is around -260, which he considers a gift. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will thwart Kuniev's, allowing him to land big shots and outdamage Kuniev, possibly getting a ground-and-pound finish, but official prediction is Blaydes by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes, criticizing Rizvan Kuniev as a known steroid cheat. He highlights Blaydes' experience, underrated striking, and excellent grappling defense. He predicts Blaydes will win by TKO via ground-and-pound in round two, noting Kuniev's inability to finish or outpoint Blaydes.
Zane picks Blaydes, arguing that Kuniev's style invites wrestling by pressuring and clinching, which plays into Blaydes' strengths. He notes that Kuniev's fight against Kunya showed he allows himself to be clinched and wrestled, and that Blaydes is a much better wrestler than Kuniev. He dismisses concerns about Blaydes' striking-first tendency, as Kuniev's pressure will give Blaydes easy takedown entries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.
Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.
Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.
Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.
Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by TKO in the first round. He believes Aspinall is better in every way—faster, more powerful, and with better grappling. He dismisses the first fight due to Aspinall's injury and notes that Blaydes didn't land a clean punch. The Guru points to Aspinall's quick submission of Sergei Pavlovich and his ability to finish fights. He also mentions that Jon Jones tossed Blaydes around, suggesting Aspinall can do the same. He expects Aspinall to land a one-two and finish on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 9 of 11 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 8 of 8 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 25 | 64% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.
Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.
Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.
Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.
Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 1 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 14 of 56 | 25% | 14 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 36 of 85 | 42% | 30 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Curtis Blaydes | 14 of 56 | 25% | 11 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-170), Pavlovich (+145)
Round 1
The main event is upon us, and it is a heavyweight clash that should not last too terribly long. In the one corner, Russian knockout artist Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC) plies his trade in search of his sixth straight stoppage victory due to strikes. In the other, Blaydes (17-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) seeks his long-awaited championship opportunity, and he answers with 71% of his own wins coming by some variation of knockout. In their combined 34 pro wins, neither man has performed a submission, and it is unlikely to come in this five-rounder. Before trying to knock the other’s melon into the third row, they respectfully touch ‘em up and exchange a stoic nod. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for what comes next…or so he hopes. Blaydes sticks out a jab and a sweeping leg kick in the opening seconds, and Pavlovich is out of the way from that and a subsequent right hand. Pavlovich fires off a right hand, and even hitting the guard, it gets Blaydes’ attention. Pavlovich comes out swinging, and Blaydes counters with a solid check right hook. Blaydes lands two more when Pavlovich is throwing recklessly, making the Russian start to brawl. Pavlovich drills Blaydes with a left, and Blaydes gives it right back without batting an eye. The chins are tested and both make it through the first surges. Blaydes fires off a leg kick after a jab, and it makes Pavlovich drag it out of the way to take some of the sting out of it. Blaydes kicks on the outside to stop this, and Pavlovich winds up with a bomb of a right hand that glances off the side of the head. Blaydes hits the deck, but he pushes up and springs to his feet, seemingly flash knocked down and not hurt. Blaydes attacks the leg, and Pavlovich rocks him with a jab. Pavlovich lets go with a long series of punches, and Blaydes takes several of them flush, gives a few back, and shoots for a takedown. The Russian shuts him down and knocks him back to the wall, where he gets off right hands but his jab might be the one affecting Blaydes more.
Blaydes backpedals, and Pavlovich splits the guard with a shovel uppercut of a right hand. As Pavlovich continues throwing caution to the wind and hurting Blaydes again and again with his fists, a sharp right hand drops Blaydes to the floor. Knowing the finish is right around the corner, Pavlovich punches Blaydes out with four more punishing left hands, and Goddard has seen enough.
This is a major statement for Pavlovich, who has now racked up six straight first-round knockouts – a UFC record at least in the modern era when fights lasted more than one round. Pavlovich very confidently asks where his belt is, and challenges Jon Jones and any other top heavyweight to take him down. If he gets the next crack at the heavyweight crown, we will absolutely be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Curtis Blaydes R1 3:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes because of his elite wrestling, which he believes will be the deciding factor. He notes that Blaydes averages over six takedowns per fight and has fast, clean entries. He acknowledges Pavlovich's dangerous striking and knockout power, but thinks Blaydes can survive the early rounds and then take over with wrestling. He mentions Blaydes' three knockout losses but still favors him. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, specifically in the first two minutes. He notes that Pavlovich is very live to starch Blaydes early if Blaydes tries to strike. Blaydes has a clear path to victory via takedown, but if he doesn't shoot immediately, Pavlovich's power could end the fight. Brady thinks it's a 50/50 fight but leans Pavlovich because of his knockout power and Blaydes's tendency to fall in love with striking. He also mentions Pavlovich's poor ground game from past fights, but believes the knockout comes first.
Cody picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his first-round knockout streak and the fact that his only UFC loss was to Overeem in his debut at age 26. He argues Pavlovich has improved since then, trains at Tiger Muay Thai, and has a wrestling background. Cody criticizes Blaydes for sometimes choosing to strike instead of wrestling, as seen against Lewis and Daukaus, and notes that even when Blaydes gets takedowns, he doesn't always do damage. He believes Pavlovich can get back to his feet and land a knockout.
Connor picks Blaydes confidently, arguing that Blaydes does something no other heavyweight does: wrestle with diverse takedowns and control. He points out that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent, as shown when Overeem took him down and he didn't know what to do. He also notes that Blaydes is durable and has weathered big shots before, and that Pavlovich's striking falls apart when he's not winning.
Curtis Blaydes has improved striking and distance management, using kicks and combinations to avoid trading in the pocket. He has the wrestling advantage and can take the fight to the ground, where he can control or finish. Pavlovich is a dangerous power puncher but tends to thrive when opponents exchange with him; Blaydes will not do that. The only loss on Pavlovich's record came via Alistair Overeem, who now trains with Blaydes, giving Blaydes insight. Blaydes is the more well-rounded fighter with better tools and experience.
Paul picks Pavlovich as a plus money underdog, citing his first-round finishing streak and heavy hands. He acknowledges Blaydes' wrestling and cardio advantages but believes Pavlovich's power and youth (30 at heavyweight) give him a real chance. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling base and training at Tiger Muay Thai, and points out that Blaydes has been knocked out by power punchers before. Paul also mentions a prop for Pavlovich to win in round one at plus 300.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich after initially leaning toward Blaydes. He rewatched Blaydes' fights and found them less impressive, noting Blaydes is skittish against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He believes Pavlovich's takedown defense has improved and that he will hurt Blaydes on the feet, stuff takedowns, and finish him. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Blaydes despite acknowledging Pavlovich's knockout power. He notes that Blaydes is a diverse wrestler who can take down and control heavyweights, and that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent as seen against Overeem. However, he is hesitant because Blaydes has been knocked out before and often spends time standing early, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Pavlovich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tom Aspinall | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tom Aspinall | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his next-level wrestling and recent striking improvement. He notes Blaydes has taken down elite heavyweights like Volkov, Overeem, and Hunt, while Aspinall's 100% takedown defense is based on only two defended attempts. He believes Blaydes will have success on the feet but ultimately get takedowns and win. He has a moneyline bet on Blaydes as an underdog.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant. He notes Blaydes is a tough matchup with great wrestling, but Aspinall is the much better striker with power and speed. He questions Aspinall's takedown defense but thinks his BJJ black belt and get-up game could be key. He believes Aspinall can knock Blaydes out early.
Cody leans towards Tom Aspinall, expecting an early stoppage within the first 10 minutes. He highlights Aspinall's superior hands, pro boxing experience, and size advantage. Cody notes Blaydes' tendency to get complacent striking and his late notice for the fight. He also mentions Aspinall's jiu-jitsu can keep him safe on the ground. Cody plans to live bet Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish early.
Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall to win, arguing that Aspinall's speed, variety, and well-rounded game will be too much for Curtis Blaydes. He dismisses the notion that Blaydes can simply extend the fight and win, noting that Blaydes lost the championship rounds against Volkov. Levi emphasizes Aspinall's impressive grappling, including a straight arm lock submission on Volkov, and believes Aspinall's takedown defense and offensive wrestling are underrated. He also mentions the home crowd advantage and Blaydes' potential jet lag.
Aspinall has cardio questions. If Blaydes survives the early onslaught and takes Aspinall down, Aspinall will gas. Blaydes has faced tougher competition and has more tools to win over a longer fight. I see Blaydes finishing Aspinall in the third round via TKO from top position.
Paul leans towards Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's cardio and performance if taken down multiple times. He notes Blaydes has never been an underdog in the UFC and has strong wrestling and top control. Paul suggests live betting Aspinall early and then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish. He admits he doesn't love the pick and probably won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round TKO. He notes Blaydes has a pattern of overcommitting to a strategy and losing. Aspinall is quick, technical, and has a jiu-jitsu background. He will chop the legs, land combos, and time a takedown. Blaydes will get back up but take damage, and Aspinall will finish him late in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 1 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 23 of 53 | 43% | 23 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 12 of 37 | 32% | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 30 of 63 | 47% | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Chris Daukaus | 13 of 38 | 34% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 23 of 53 | 43% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Daukaus | 12 of 37 | 32% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Chris Daukaus | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.
Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.
Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.
Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.
The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.
Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.
The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round arm triangle submission over Chris Daukaus. He cites Blaydes' size and wrestling advantage, noting Daukaus hasn't shown his black belt jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The Guru expects Blaydes to be calm due to Daukaus' lack of intimidation, get a double leg, and grind out a submission. He criticizes the 4-1 odds as making betting pointless.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 32 of 96 | 33% | 113 of 190 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:19 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 18 of 68 | 26% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 27 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 8 of 37 | 21% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 32 of 96 | 33% | 18 of 76 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 18 of 68 | 26% | 17 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 8 of 37 | 21% | 5 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Curtis Blaydes | 5 of 17 | 29% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.
Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.
Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.
Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.
Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.
The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.
Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.
The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.
Jailton Almeida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 50 of 92 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 43 of 93 | 46% | 102 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 6:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 33 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 31 of 67 | 46% | 17 of 50 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 57 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 43 of 93 | 46% | 31 of 77 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 65 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 15 of 35 | 42% | 12 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 18 of 34 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Rizvan Kuniev | 16 of 34 | 47% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, calling him one of the best wrestling heavyweights ever. He notes Almeida's spectacular takedown execution and believes he will dominate Kuniev on the ground. He mentions that Almeida was robbed in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, where he had 7 takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. He advises jumping on the -220 line before it moves.
Big Brady picks Rizvan Kuniev as a dog, noting that Kuniev stuffed takedowns well against Curtis Blades, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. He believes Almeida has poor cardio and doesn't handle adversity well, and if Kuniev can stuff early takedowns, he will break and finish Almeida. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody also picks Kuniev, highlighting Almeida's lack of size and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's control time doesn't score well with judges, and Kuniev's striking and clinch work should earn him rounds. Cody expects a decision win for Kuniev, with the over being a strong play.
Connor picks Kuniev, citing his solid takedown defense and steady, measured aggression. He believes Kuniev's simple, mistake-free style could be the recipe to handle Almeida, especially if Almeida can't get takedowns. He notes that Almeida's striking is poor and Kuniev could pressure him. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Kuniev's lack of UFC experience.
Lucrative James picks Jailton Almeida to win by submission in round one. He believes Almeida's grappling will be too much for Kuniev, who showed poor takedown defense against Curtis Blades. James notes that Almeida is excellent at taking the back and finishing, while Kuniev is primarily a striker.
The host picks Kuniev by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Kuniev can stop Almeida's takedowns and work back to his feet quickly, then outbox Almeida and take over as Almeida gasses. He notes Kuniev's striking and wrestling are underrated, and that Almeida struggles when he can't get takedowns.
Paul picks Rizvan Kuniev, citing Almeida's struggles with modern judging that favors damage over control time. He notes Kuniev's better boxing and durability, and Almeida's inability to finish or hold down bigger opponents. Paul expects Kuniev to land the more impactful strikes and edge a decision.
The host picks Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. He thinks Almeida's grappling will be too much, and he will out-scramble Kuniev. He notes Kuniev's conditioning may be an issue later in the fight. He expects Almeida to win, possibly boringly, and hopes he gets cut afterwards.
Zane picks Almeida but acknowledges Kuniev's solid defensive wrestling and measured aggression. He notes that Kuniev's performance against Curtis Blades was impressive, but Blades has been disconnected from his wrestling. He thinks Almeida's relentless takedown attempts could overwhelm Kuniev, but if Kuniev stuffs them, Almeida could be in trouble.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 24 of 27 | 88% | 123 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 27 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 10:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 38 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:14 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 77 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 24 of 27 | 88% | 19 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 17 |
| Jailton Almeida | 9 of 10 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 15 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 15 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jailton Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 7 of 8 | 87% | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 5 of 5 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.
Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.
Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.
Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.
The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.
Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.
Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.
The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.
Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.
Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.
Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.
Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.
The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.
Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 9 of 11 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 8 of 8 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 25 | 64% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Blaydes | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Curtis Blaydes | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.
Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.
Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.
Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.
Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 120 of 153 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 | 1 | 21:10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 27 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 8 | 30 of 41 |
| Derrick Lewis | 20 of 39 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jailton Almeida | 19 of 29 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 16 of 21 |
| Derrick Lewis | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | |
| 4 | Jailton Almeida | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Derrick Lewis | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.
James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.
Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.
Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.
Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.
James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.
Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.
Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.
Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 45 of 57 | 78% | 89 of 110 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 0 | 31 of 40 | 77% | 64 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 45 of 57 | 78% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 14 of 17 | 82% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 2 | Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shamil Abdurakhimov | 31 of 40 | 77% | 30 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 37 |
Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.
Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.
Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.
The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.
Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.
Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.
Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.
Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.
Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.
Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.
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