UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena
5.57 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.13 TD Avg
10.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gilbert Burns
3.15 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.12 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Jack Della Maddalena
Moneyline
BetRivers -155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +160
Submission
BetRivers +2900
Decision
BetWay +350
Gilbert Burns
Moneyline
DraftKings +142
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetRivers +360
Decision
FanDuel +470
Jack Della Maddalena - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
TKO R3 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 41 of 76 53% 53 of 90 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:13
Carlos Prates 3 104 of 193 53% 104 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 25 of 39 64% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 1 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Carlos Prates 2 46 of 69 66% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 41 of 76 53% 25 of 52 8 of 15 8 of 9 41 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 104 of 193 53% 79 of 164 11 of 14 14 of 15 89 of 171 1 of 1 14 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 15 of 30 50% 5 of 18 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 25 of 39 64% 19 of 28 3 of 7 3 of 4 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 36 of 79 45% 27 of 69 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 78 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 46 of 69 66% 39 of 61 3 of 4 4 of 4 32 of 48 1 of 1 13 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Round 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to what Matalena …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.

"Prattis for me, Jack Dela for you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 127 of 356 35% 127 of 356 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 105 of 190 55% 105 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 40 of 111 36% 40 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 41 of 69 59% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 49 of 127 38% 49 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 127 of 356 35% 59 of 258 33 of 55 35 of 43 119 of 346 8 of 10 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 105 of 190 55% 46 of 115 36 of 49 23 of 26 94 of 175 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 40 of 111 36% 15 of 76 11 of 18 14 of 17 36 of 105 4 of 6 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 41 of 69 59% 19 of 42 14 of 18 8 of 9 34 of 60 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 49 of 127 38% 27 of 97 10 of 16 12 of 14 46 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 34 of 61 55% 10 of 34 14 of 17 10 of 10 33 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 38 of 118 32% 17 of 85 12 of 21 9 of 12 37 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 30 of 60 50% 17 of 39 8 of 14 5 of 7 27 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-148), Holland (+124)

Round 1
Ranked welterweights cross paths in the compelling co-main event, as Della Maddalena (15-2, 5-0 UFC) puts his remarkable 15-fight winning streak on the line in arguably his toughest test to date. The 30-year-old Holland (25-9, 12-6 UFC) boasts 21 finishes among his 25 career victories. Jason Herzog draws the officiating assignment. Della Maddalena lunges forward with jabs and hammers home a leg kick. Holland answers with a leg kick of his own, stays light on his feet and looks to penetrate the Aussie’s defenses with punches down the middle. Della Maddalena attacks the body with hooks and tries to stay close to the Texan, hoping to negate a significant reach advantage. They engage one another at close range in the center of the cage, trading elbows and punches that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd. Holland punctuates a combination with a left hook. Della Maddalena responds with a right hand over the top. Holland stays busy with his kicks, zeroing in on the legs, body and occasionally the head. Della Maddalena scores with a body-head volley in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Holland paws with his jab but lands nothing of significance. Della Maddalena sneaks in a leg kick, closes the distance and connects with a right hand upstairs. Holland answers with front kicks to the body and push kicks to the legs. This has the makings of a nip-tuck affair that could go either way. A short counter right lands for Holland, who rolls with punches as the Aussie tries to return fire. Della Maddalena struggling to generate enough output. Holland stays busy with his hands and feet. He doubles and triples up on his jab. Della Maddalena punctuates a combination with a leg kick. Holland shoots on a takedown and bails on it, with both men throwing elbows on the exit. Holland clips his opponent with a right hook at close range, catches a kick and nearly dumps the Aussie to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
Della Maddalena opens the third round with a clubbing right hand that forces “Trailblazer” to retreat and circle. Holland keeps his composure and threatens with kicks. He leans on his jab and connects with a spinning reverse elbow, but it fails to make much of an impact. Della Maddalena cuts loose with punches, and while he lands a few of them, most miss the mark. The Aussie is the more active participant through the first half of the period. Holland is not hitting the accelerator, even though he needs to. Della Maddalena appears to be blocking a majority of his shots. The crowd boos for some reason. Della Maddalena answers every Holland strike with two, three and four of his own. Holland starting to pick up the pace, but it looks to be a case of too little too late. Della Maddalena delivers a pair of short-range elbows just before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (30-27 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Kevin Holland—Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

over 2.5 rounds considered
"I am going to lean Holland it might be recency bias I'm hoping it's not and I just think it's going to come down to I know how tough Holland is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"I think I'm gonna go with Kevin Holland here with with little to no confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

"I'm also GNA take Holland but by or beware... I just think the numberers too good on Kevin Holland dog money."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

bet at plus-100, now minus-145; could hedge on Holland for profit
"I'm gonna ride it out on Jack Dilla and here's why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

"give me the underdog shot here on Holland who I think he has more paths to Victory here and I think he has a good enough striking game to compete against Elena make this close... I think it ends up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

"I bet Kevin Holland and you know me historically Kevin Holland hater... I'll take the bigger opponent with decent enough grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

TKO via liver shot, late first or second round
"I'm gonna go with Jack Della madalena over Kevin Holland"
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 83 of 137 60% 149 of 212 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Bassil Hafez 0 32 of 124 25% 48 of 141 3 of 20 15% 0 1 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 13 of 26 50% 41 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Bassil Hafez 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 31 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:19
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 43 62% 47 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Bassil Hafez 0 16 of 56 28% 29 of 70 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 43 of 68 63% 61 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Bassil Hafez 0 7 of 40 17% 7 of 40 0 of 9 0% 0 1 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 83 of 137 60% 55 of 104 27 of 32 1 of 1 68 of 119 14 of 17 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 32 of 124 25% 29 of 117 2 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 118 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 9 of 28 32% 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 43 62% 17 of 31 9 of 11 1 of 1 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 16 of 56 28% 15 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 43 of 68 63% 29 of 52 14 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 55 10 of 12 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 7 of 40 17% 6 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)

Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez

Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena

Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Late first round knockout; would not lay -550
"give me Jack Della late first round knockout this fight should be an absolute Banger there's a reason they move this to the co-main"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

live bet on Hafez after first round
"I gotta back him here the same way I was gonna back him last week the same way I would back him against most of the guys of the division let alone a guy making his debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

"I don't know anything about this guy Liam"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

"I'll pick a fez on the program which is crazy but... I don't hate the madalena fade uh as a as a concept here I don't think it's too too crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

KO late in the first round
"I've got to go with JDM getting his jab going early and eventually seeking the kill at the end of the first round where I think he's gonna get a KO win"
WIN vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
WIN vs Danny Roberts
TKO (punches) R1 3:24 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-490), Roberts (+330)

Round 1
The fists are sure to fly in this welterweight affair. Winner of 12 straight fights, with 11 going down inside the distance, Maddalena (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is keen on rising up the rankings fast. His next test comes in the form of British brawler Roberts (18-6, 7-5 UFC), who will almost certainly meet him in the middle. For as long as this match lasts, referee Mart Smith will be here for it. Like most of the fights thus far, there is no glove touch to initiate the proceedings. Maddalena measures himself, and he works his way in to close the distance and smack Roberts in the face with a right hand. Roberts tries to back him off with kicks, but Maddalena is on him with a fire and a fury. Maddalena rips the body in the midst of a lengthy combination, but Roberts has the wherewithal to dodge a high kick. As he dips down, he eats a knee on the chin, and his knees wobble but he keeps his bearings. As Roberts escapes, Maddalena gives chase and slams his fists into the face of his adversary. The Brit topples to the mat in big trouble, and Maddalena climbs down in hopes of finishing the job. Roberts protects himself from further harm and fights back to his feet. Maddalena is there to meet him with punches and a high kick, but the latter gets blocked. The Aussie lines up a knee and a right hook, and Roberts is taking a pounding but still in the fight. Roberts swings with a few looping shots before charging in from across the cage for a double, and Maddalena defends it with the wall to his back. Roberts checks a kick, and he unloads a combination of brutalizing blows.
Roberts backs up to the wall, and Maddalena swarms him with a long salvo that breaks Roberts with a left to the liver. Roberts’ legs give way beneath him, and Maddalena only needs a few pulverizing punches until Smith has seen enough and calls it.
This stellar performance for the man that has now won 13 fights in a row makes him absolutely one to watch in the welterweight division, and he calls for a fight at UFC 284 against anyone who will take it in his home city of Perth, Australia, in February.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Danny Roberts R1 3:24 via TKO (Punches)
Gilbert Burns - Fight History
LOSS vs Mike Malott
KO R3 2:08 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 40 of 92 43% 42 of 94 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 56 of 121 46% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 22 of 53 41% 22 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gilbert Burns 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 40 of 92 43% 16 of 60 10 of 12 14 of 20 39 of 89 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 56 of 121 46% 51 of 112 3 of 6 2 of 3 44 of 103 1 of 4 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 11 of 38 28% 3 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 13 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 23 of 37 62% 11 of 23 3 of 3 9 of 11 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Malott 22 of 53 41% 21 of 48 1 of 4 0 of 1 22 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 6 of 17 35% 2 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 4 6 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 1 of 2 11 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-375); Burns (+275)

Round 1
The year is 2026, and the UFC has elected to put a fighter in Burns (22-9, 15-9 UFC) on a four-fight losing streak in a main event. He will be placed in hostile territory, perhaps set up as a stepping stone. Ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, he comes to blows with proud Canadian Malott (13-2-1, 6-1 UFC). Whether a passing of the torch moment or one that shows levels to the game, referee Herb Dean will be here for them every step of the way. He brings them together to issue final instructions, and they share a fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Burns lashes out with a leg kick, and Malott sees it coming and brings his leg in to partially check it. Burns kicks off, and his foot bounces into the cup. Malott adjusts his groin and tells Dean he is good to continue, so they do not pause. Malott chases Burns to the cage behind a pair of punches, and he leans over to let a massive overhand right from the Brazilian buzz behind his neck. Burns whiffs on two more big hooks, but his digging left to the liver gets in twice. Malott swings back hard enough to make Burns think twice about coming in recklessly, and he goes for a takedown only to get stood up. Malott resets and sticks out four punches. Burns fights off a takedown shot, lets Malott hit the ground and bounce back up, and fires out a kick that pounds into his foe’s pectoral. Malott calmly jabs and rolls with the right hand he knows is coming.
Burns kicks at the front leg and is backed off with a left hand, and he defends the uppercuts and wings a right hand as Malott bends over. Burns ducks down for a takedown shot, and he bails it to loose two haymakers that hit nothing but air. Malott times a straight right hand down Broadway as Burns is aiming a leg kick, giving chase as Burns circles away. Burns shoots again, and the Canadian is a stone wall and does not give an inch. Burns backs off and bounces on his heels, tossing out a left hook that brushes the nose. Both men let fly heavy hooks, and Burns follows his land with a chopping kick. Malott looks for a hefty counter, and Burns evades it but cannot get out of the way of a calf kick. Malott leaps forward to land a body kick on the abdomen, landing to sling two hooks behind it. Burns tries to jump for an attack of his own, but time expires while he is in the air so he just lands normally.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
The two men bump fists before getting after it. Burns nails the front leg with a kick so hard, Malott drops to a knee. His calf is glowing red just a few seconds into the second round, and Burns is aware of this and does not go after it recklessly. Instead, Burns sets up the kick with blows to other targets. As he is backed off from a one-two, a thin trickle of blood leaks out of the Brazilian’s nostril, who shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Burns rebounds to kick the inner leg of his foe, and he drills a right hand on the side of Malott’s head. Burns kicks low to punch high again, even leaping with a Superman punch. Malott backs him off behind his fists, even as Burns loops a left hand back at him. Burns scores with one more hard calf kick and a left hand after it. Malott splits his guard with an uppercut and appears to shake Burns up, who retreats in a hurry. A shiner and some blood immediately develops under Burns’ left eye, as he backs off to defend himself while Malott goes on the offensive. Malott rips uppercuts and loops his right hand around the guard, staying in range just long enough to land but not leaving himself open for Burns’ big swings.
Burns wears the strikes well but is showing damage all over, and he cannot quite secure the home run blow he is seeking. Malott sneaks in an uppercut, and Burns counters with an overhand right and waves Malott on for more. When Malott does not bite, Burns shoots for a takedown. Malott shucks him to the side and sticks a jab in his face, staying calm and composed. Malott beats Burns to the punch and forces him to spin away with a left hook. Both men lunge at one another with power, but nothing significant lands as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Burns takes directly to the center of the cage to engage, doubling up on a jab to sling his big right hand. Malott shies away from the heavy blow and circles around to give chase to Burns. After almost 30 seconds of staring, Burns swings for the bleachers with his right hand twice. Malott laughs them off and sprawls smoothly to defuse the takedown attempt before anything comes of it. Malott backs Burns to the fence with his long, straight punches, staying at his preferred distance to not get caught with the counter. Burns tries and fails to bash him with his right hand, but he leaves himself wide open for an uppercut and a left hook that puts Burns down hard. Burns climbs back up but is compromised, leading to Malott knocking him down again with a blistering right hand. Burns hits his side and is not about to go anywhere, so Malott hammers the nail with a final onslaught of concussive fists that force Dean to step in. The crowd, understandably, goes wild. Malott has earned the biggest win of his career in his most significant fight to date, and he does it by knockout after going toe-to-toe with a powerful striker. Canada may not have won the night in terms of individual matchups, going 4-5 throughout the billing, but Malott prevailed when it mattered most.
The logjam of the welterweight title picture has yet another contender, and as this sport gives, it also takes. A heartbroken “Durinho” leaves his gloves in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, overcome by emotion but still more than willing to give it up for the man that just put him down. The respectful victor has nothing but positive things to say about his opponent, his team and his fans. He does not have any opponent set as he hopes to work his way up the ladder, instead saying he will do so the “Proper” way. When he competes again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Gilbert Burns R3 2:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.

Parlay Mike Malott heavily, even if he's minus 11,000.
"Mike Malott's the pick. Parlay the [ __ ] out of him, even if he's minus 11,000. Like, this is unbelievably straightforward."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.

second round knockout; no bet
"I'm taking Mike Malott. I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout, but this is a fight I will not be betting on."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.

round 4 and round 5 props
"I end up with a Gilbert Burns play. I know it's going to upset some people I know personally. And you know, don't shoot the messenger. It's just uh sometimes it's more economics than you going with your heart."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.

"I think Mike Malot's going to come out here in Winnipeg, Canada, and I think he's going to finish Gilbert Dorinho Burns."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.

fight not to go to decision (odds terrible)
"I think this fight is way closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.

"I'm going to say Gilbert Burns gets the upset here. And that's because I'm a sports better."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)

The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.

"Gilbert Burns has been getting bet down from a massive underdog to now just a big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.

under 2.5 rounds
"I like Malott here. I don't like the chalk on him. I think he'll end up landing a big shot to put Burns down, but I think the under two and a half would probably be the best way to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.

round 4 and round 5 props
"Burns is the side for me. Um, I see some other people saying that like, you know, he's going to run, you know, Burns going to get knocked out in the first round. I mean, it's possible. It's MMA. Anything …"
LOSS vs Michael Morales
KO R1 3:39 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)

Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.

Angelo is shocked Morales is only -600, expects line to close at -1000.
"Mic Morales is the pick. He's a better wrestler, a better striker. He's bigger. He's faster. He's stronger. He's younger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Morales by KO, round 2
"I like Morales. I like him quite a bit. ... I'll take Michael Morales to win this fight. And I think he's going to find the chin of Gilbert Burns. And I think he finds it within the first probably …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.

Morales by KO; under 3.5 rounds; odds comment: minus 800 tough to get behind
"I think the Ecuadorian improves his record to 18 and 0 by knocking out Gilbert Burns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.

Morales by decision (49-46); odds comment: -850 is insane
"I'm going to go with Michael Morales here over Gilbert Burns."
CANCEL vs Michael Morales
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 47 of 97 48% 76 of 126 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:43
Gilbert Burns 0 130 of 217 59% 274 of 368 7 of 17 41% 0 0 10:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 42 54% 58 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:15
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 20 40% 12 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Gilbert Burns 0 33 of 54 61% 59 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:26
3 Sean Brady 0 17 of 27 62% 29 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Gilbert Burns 0 19 of 38 50% 77 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:26
4 Sean Brady 0 7 of 16 43% 10 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Gilbert Burns 0 24 of 34 70% 44 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:48
5 Sean Brady 0 9 of 20 45% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 31 of 49 63% 36 of 57 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 47 of 97 48% 25 of 72 19 of 21 3 of 4 32 of 80 15 of 17 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 130 of 217 59% 97 of 179 12 of 16 21 of 22 118 of 202 11 of 13 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 6 of 14 42% 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 23 of 42 54% 17 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 4 20 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sean Brady 8 of 20 40% 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 33 of 54 61% 24 of 43 6 of 8 3 of 3 29 of 50 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 17 of 27 62% 9 of 19 7 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 19 8 of 8 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 19 of 38 50% 16 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 2 15 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0
4 Sean Brady 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 24 of 34 70% 17 of 27 1 of 1 6 of 6 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Brady 9 of 20 45% 4 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 31 of 49 63% 23 of 41 1 of 1 7 of 7 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)

Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.

"I think Shawn Brady wins this fight and I'll tell you why"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.

"I got to go Shawn Brady here I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.

Gilbert Burns submission prop if juicy could be interesting
"I'll take Gilbert Burns uh but yeah it's it's not going to be high up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.

over 2.5 rounds
"I do have Morales, but I can fully admit that minus 800, like there's no value there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.

"I think that Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time this weekend... I'm going Shawn Brady here in the main event."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.

Brady inside the distance (round 3 or 4)
"I like Brady in the spot... I'm going to go Brady here I just think he's at this stage of his career uh much better than Burns at 38."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.

"Shawn Brady is the pick for me I mean I kind of hate it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.

Gilbert Burns by submission +1800
"I took a little small poke on that. Do I expect it to win? No."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.

decision prediction
"I'm going with Shawn Brady... I'm going to go Brady with decision maybe... a really boring Main Event win for Shawn Brady"
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 283 46% 132 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 81 of 147 55% 81 of 147 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Belal Muhammad 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 283 46% 92 of 241 39 of 41 1 of 1 132 of 283 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 81 of 147 55% 35 of 96 13 of 16 33 of 35 81 of 147 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 19 of 39 48% 9 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 18 of 51 35% 11 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 28 53% 6 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 10 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 25 of 59 42% 20 of 53 5 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 3 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 28 of 54 51% 18 of 44 10 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 4 of 4 6 of 7 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 42 of 80 52% 34 of 71 8 of 9 0 of 0 42 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 43 48% 9 of 30 3 of 4 9 of 9 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Five-Round Co-Feature: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.

quarter unit at +105
"I got a quarter of a unit on below at Plus 105."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.

Fourth round TKO prediction
"I'm going to take Muhammad here to win this fight I like him to weather the early storm put the pressure on put the pace on and break Burns as this fight goes on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.

Live betting after first round for better price
"pre-fight flop I will take the underdog Muhammad plus 110"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.

"I'm going to pick Balal too, but that is my concern."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.

Belal Muhammad by TKO in round 4 or 5, plus 120 odds
"I think that this is a spot that he can go out there put Gilbert Burns through the grinder and finish him probably in the 4th of fifth round of this matchup give me give me below Muhammad a short …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Burns moved from 1.5 to 1; thinks one takedown is accurate
"I'm leaning ever so slightly towards below because of the fact that it's five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.

TKO prediction
"I'm going with Gilbert Burns I like the fact that he called for five rounds knowing that Bilal Muhammad might not be in a peak shape I'm gonna go Gilbert Burns getting this one done by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.

"I got to pick Balal Muhammad in that kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-410), Magny (+330)

Round 1
Welterweights with a lot at stake invade the Octagon next, as former title challenger Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) looks to get back on the right track against the UFC welterweight division’s all-time wins leader Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC). At 36 and 35 years of age, respectively, the time is now for these two to go on a run, lest they get left behind for the young guns nipping at their heels. This 170-pound “featured fight of the night” scrap will have referee Fernando Portella keeping tabs, and it begins with hands clapping together. The two hesitantly approach one another, and Magny uses his range to disallow Burns from coming at him. This strategy does not stay intact for long, as Burns closes in to whip a high body kick under the elbow. Burns chambers his big right hand without throwing it for a prolonged stretch, and he rushes forward and only lands a jab. The right hand from Burns is chained right into a level change, and he scoops Magny off the ground and slams him to the mat without batting an eye. The Brazilian shifts straight into half guard when landing, although the veteran Magny drags him back to his guard. Burns aims to jump into the mount, and opts to move to side control when Magny’s long legs give him issues. Magny leans to his side, and Burns hooks his left arm behind the neck and right arm beneath Magny’s left knee to pass. Burns passes to the other side, and he presses his shoulder down in a potential arm-triangle setup. "Durinho" slices over to full mount, as the crowd cheers in unison for his success. Burns again flirts with an arm-triangle, but bails on it to lock Magny’s right arm down in a potential keylock. Burns suddenly presses his full body weight down and steps to the side brilliantly for an arm-triangle choke, and he locks it up in an instant even with his side against the cage wall. Magny knows there is nothing more he can do, and he reaches his arm straight out and then taps out. Burns made that look easy, putting away a respected veteran while barely breaking a sweat. In the process, he also pulled off his first submission since returning to welterweight in 2019.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Neil Magny R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady is confident Burns will submit Magny in the first round. He notes Burns is a wizard on the mat with elite BJJ, while Magny has poor takedown defense (57%) and has been submitted five times. Burns will take the fight down easily and finish. On the feet, Magny has a reach advantage but Burns has more power. He expects a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I think Burns submits this guy and I think he does it probably early as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns confidently, believing Burns should win two rounds and coast in the third. He notes Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are key, and that Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Burns' cardio and chin concerns but thinks the Brazilian crowd and Burns' recent form (Chimaev fight) will carry him. He says Burns' path to victory is takedowns and control.

parlayed Burns with Johnny Walker; mentions Burns' takedowns and control
"I jumped in on Gilbert Burns early I think worst case scenario turns into like the Wonder Boy fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Burns is a nightmare matchup for Magny. He notes that Magny has improved his jab and pressure, but Burns is a souped-up version of the fighters who have troubled Magny before. Connor believes Burns can take Magny down or beat him in the clinch, and that Magny's only path is a lucky shot.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"It's just a miserable net matchup for Magni. Really like RDA, just that combination of skills that whenever Magni meets it just ruins his whole day."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns but with some hesitation. He notes Burns' cardio and durability issues, but thinks Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu will be too much for Magny. He mentions Magny's good cardio and ring IQ but says Burns is the better fighter. He warns that Burns could gas out or get caught, but overall expects Burns to win via takedowns and top control.

mentions Burns' cardio concerns; says Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground
"I like Gilbert Burns as well I think he's the better fighter and should win but there are versions of Gilbert Burns that exist that can make this very difficult on himself"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Burns but calls it his least confident pick on the card. He notes Magny's reach advantage and straight punches could trouble Burns, who struggles with range. However, Burns has offensive takedowns and Magny makes mistakes defending them. The Guru predicts Burns will find a submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) or TKO via ground and pound. He worries about the style matchup but trusts Burns' grappling.

submission
"I'm going Gilbert Burns but I don't know ... this is my least confident pick funnily enough"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns, calling it a 'miserable matchup' for Magny. He notes that Magny historically struggles against powerful strikers, technical top-position grapplers, and freak athletes—Burns is all three. Zane highlights Burns' toughness, power, and well-rounded game, and believes Magny's only chance is to be super aggressive and hope for a miracle.

Magny opened at +245, now +350; Burns opened at -285, now -459. Zane does not place a bet.
"This is a miserable fight for Neil Magny and I would never pick him in it."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet on him at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of being in the top five to top 10 of the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"