vs
-170 +150
UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Diego Lopes
3.83 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.56 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.88 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gavin Tucker
4.29 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.18 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
3.13 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Diego Lopes
Moneyline
Caesars -170
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
FanDuel +250
Decision
BetRivers +430
Gavin Tucker
Moneyline
BetWay +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
FanDuel +310
Diego Lopes - Fight History
SCHED vs Steve Garcia
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 98 of 160 61% 112 of 178 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:49
Diego Lopes 0 70 of 158 44% 74 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Diego Lopes 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 34 47% 19 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 44 56% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 24 87% 29 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:22
Diego Lopes 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 11 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 98 of 160 61% 72 of 118 3 of 6 23 of 36 88 of 149 3 of 4 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 70 of 158 44% 33 of 98 17 of 33 20 of 27 66 of 152 3 of 4 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 12 of 27 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 7 of 14 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 12 of 28 42% 3 of 15 2 of 5 7 of 8 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 30 63% 13 of 20 0 of 2 6 of 8 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 34 47% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 6 15 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 35 60% 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 2 21 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 17 of 38 44% 8 of 24 5 of 8 4 of 6 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 44 56% 15 of 33 2 of 2 8 of 9 25 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 22 of 48 45% 10 of 29 7 of 13 5 of 6 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 24 87% 18 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 14 3 of 3 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 3 of 10 30% 3 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.

Diego Lopes wins inside the distance (refund if not)
"The bet has always and will always be Diego Lopez wins inside the distance because you get a refund if he doesn't and you get paid if he does."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.

Lopes by KO in round 2
"I'm going to lean Lopez here. I'm going to say he does touch the chin. ... Give me Lopez here by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.

Volkanovski by decision +170
"I still think Vulcanoski does enough to get the job done so one I do have Vulk but two I don't think he knocks out Lopez and I don't think he's miss Lopez so it's a vulk by decision play …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.

Odds: Lopes +124, Volkanovski -145. Connor mentions the odds are a 'loaded coin' and that Lopes is bound to win one of these matchups eventually.
"I'm going to pick him at this point, just because I think that the UFC is literally like, if he loses, they're literally going to do it again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.

"I think Vulk's going to pick this man apart. I really do."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.

"I'm actually going to pick Diego Lopez for this one. I'm going to pick him for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.

Volkanovski by decision likely; Lopes by knockout if he wins; wait for better odds on Volkanovski
"I'm going to go Alexander Vulcganowski and still featherweight champion Mr. Vulcanowski."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.

"I just watched this fight. It was fairly decisive going one way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to put away Alexander Vulcganowski by TKO in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.

Odds: Volkanovski -145, Lopes +124. Zane mentions the odds but does not make a betting recommendation.
"Lopez is not a good game planner. He has atrocious defense and poor footwork. Volkanovski is going to walk him into jabs and overhand rights."
WIN vs Jean Silva
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 74 of 135 54% 86 of 154 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:40
Jean Silva 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 43 of 77 55% 50 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
Jean Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
2 Diego Lopes 1 31 of 58 53% 36 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:42
Jean Silva 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 74 of 135 54% 63 of 118 1 of 1 10 of 16 31 of 65 1 of 2 42 of 68
Jean Silva 43 of 91 47% 26 of 67 10 of 17 7 of 7 42 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 43 of 77 55% 36 of 67 0 of 0 7 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 53
Jean Silva 10 of 20 50% 5 of 11 2 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Diego Lopes 31 of 58 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 6 17 of 41 1 of 2 13 of 15
Jean Silva 33 of 71 46% 21 of 56 8 of 11 4 of 4 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-270); Lopes (+220)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is the referee. Lopes alnds an outside leg kick. Silva with a front kick close to Lopes’ chin. Lopes is attacking with low kicks. Another front kick up high for Silva, just missing the mark. Lopes with another low kick. Silva working the front kick. Silva throws a couple leg kicks of his own. Lopes gets a takedown to counters a Silva spinning back kick. Lopes wants to take the back. Silva gives up full mount instead. Silva wants to buck him off. Lopes cuts his foe with a downward elbow. He smiles and drops more elbows. Lopes alternates between elbows and punches and Silva gives up his back. Silva is in defensive mode. More elbows and punches for Lopes, who isn’t giving up mount. Lopes drops elbows on the smiling mug of Silva. He switches to punches and Silva rolls. Lopes continues the beating, but finally Silva breaks free. He is bloodied but ready to get to work. Silva jabs and rocks Lopes with a snap kick to the chin. Lopes goes bck to the leg kick and Silva lands a jab. Lopes avoids the snap kick this time. Lopes pumps his jab and Silva lands a left hook to the body. Silva with a right. Silva wipes the blood off his head and smiles as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Lopes
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-8 Lopes

Round 2
Silva comes out with a couple leg kicks. Silva with a right to the body. Silva steps in with a solid one-two. Lopes counters with a right during an exchange. Silva with a right hook and he smiles. Silva goes body-head, and he does it again. Lopes is eating heavy shots. That propels Lopes to fire back. Silva steps in with an elbow and he just misses a spinning back elbow. Lopes lands a calf kick and he advances. Silva rocks his foe with a counter right. Silva touches the chin of Lopes again, and now he’s opening up, landing punches in bunches. Silva is mixing in some elbows to his offense. They trade low kicks. Silva digs to the body, but Lopes counters with a right. A big right lands for Silva. Lopes is still in Silva’s face. Silva over extends and Lopes gets a takedown. He lands a series of rights from Silva’s back as he laces the right leg. Lopes slams Silva, but “Lord” rolls. Lopes is able to transition to side control during a scramble. Silva uses a single-leg to stand and he’s unloading now. They’re both trading heavy punches and a finish seems like it could be imminent. Silva kicks the body and is in pursuit of his opponent. A spinning elbow from Lopes — virutally the same one “Lord” has been using repeatedly — drops Silva near the fence.
The Fighting Nerds product is stunned, and Lopes tees off with ground-and-pound. Silva isn’t recovering, and the assault continues. Beltran has finally seen enough, and he waves off the fight to save a badly bloodied Silva.
In the aftermath of the stoppage, an upset Silva attempts to go after Lopes, but he’s held back by security. The slump for the Fighting Nerds continues, but there’s no shame in this defeat: This is a “Fight of the Year” candidate.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Jean Silva via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) R2 4:48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Angelo picks Jean Silva, calling him the fighting nerds' last hope. He says Silva is a powerful striker, loose, creative, and composed. He notes Diego Lopez has dangerous BJJ and power, but his technique goes out the window as the fight goes on, and he is too busy coaching others. He thinks Silva will beat the hell out of Lopez, and the odds reflect that accurately.

"I think Jean Silva beats the [__] out of Diego Lopez. It'll be a very fun fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Big Brady picks Silva because of his exceptional power and Lopes's poor striking defense. He notes Lopes has only two takedowns in the UFC and Silva has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing. He predicts Silva knocks out Lopes, who has been knocked out twice before, in the third round.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to take Gene Silva to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Connor picks Jean Silva, emphasizing Silva's superior positioning and distance management, which he compares to Anderson Silva. He notes that Silva's natural feel for the fight and ability to remain unanxious will allow him to handle Lopes's pressure. Connor acknowledges Lopes's power and durability but believes Silva's style is better suited for an unstructured fight, where his innate skills shine.

Silva opened at -250, currently -230; Lopes opened at +210, currently +196. Connor says he's 'okay with that' and it 'probably shouldn't really be no wider.'
"I think my instinct is to pick Jean Silva here. The biggest reason is that his style opens him up to an evolution over each round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

The host believes people are realizing Lopes is not as good as he seemed. He expects Silva to dictate the pace, take the center, land big shots, break Lopes down, fend off takedowns, and eventually find a knockout, cementing himself as a top contender.

win by knockout
"Look for Jean Silva to dictate the pace from jump. take the center of the cage, land his big shots against Lopez, really start breaking Lopez down, fending off a few of the takedowns attempts that are inevitably going to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, arguing that Jean Silva is being overhyped and that the 'Fighting Nerds' mystique has faded. He notes Lopes has championship experience, having gone five rounds with Volkanovski, and crashes well, which will trouble Silva. He believes Silva's loose, goofy style will be shut down when Lopes lands power. He predicts a second-round finish.

Round 2 finish
"I'm gonna go with Diego Lopez getting this one done. And I'm going to say he gets this one done by second round finish over Jean Silva."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Zane picks Jean Silva, citing Silva's natural positioning and ability to evolve over rounds, which allows him to time opponents better as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's lack of anxiety and tendency to stay composed under pressure will be key against Lopes's aggressive but unstructured style. Zane acknowledges Lopes's finishing ability and toughness but believes Silva's natural gifts and adaptability will prevail in an unstructured fight.

Silva opened at -250, currently -230; Lopes opened at +210, currently +196. Zane says he's 'okay with that' and it 'probably shouldn't really be no wider.'
"I think the long arc of this fight probably does favor Silva, but I can easily see opportunities for him to make big mistakes that cost him."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 158 of 259 61% 165 of 266 1 of 11 9% 0 0 1:18
Diego Lopes 1 63 of 194 32% 71 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 27 of 44 61% 31 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Diego Lopes 0 8 of 22 36% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 24 of 52 46% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Diego Lopes 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 39 of 57 68% 39 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 43 of 61 70% 43 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 14 of 59 23% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 158 of 259 61% 136 of 225 8 of 14 14 of 20 142 of 237 7 of 11 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 63 of 194 32% 49 of 171 7 of 13 7 of 10 59 of 185 3 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 27 of 44 61% 21 of 34 2 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 27 4 of 6 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 24 of 52 46% 18 of 42 0 of 3 6 of 7 24 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 33 48% 15 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 45 55% 21 of 38 1 of 2 3 of 5 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 9 of 37 24% 7 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 39 of 57 68% 36 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 43 37% 13 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 43 of 61 70% 40 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 14 of 59 23% 9 of 53 2 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 55 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)

Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I think Volkonovski deserves to be in the minus two to 300 range, frankly. I get that like the vibe is out there on Lopez, but it just should not happen."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Diego Lopes

Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.

"I actually picked Diego Lopez going into the fight and I thought that he was going to be able to catch Vulcanowski and when he did, I thought he was going to close the show like he normally does."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.

He suggests betting on Volkanovski inside the distance in rounds four or five, possibly via ground and pound. He also mentions that if betting on Lopes, one should take his round one or round two KO props.
"Alexander Vulcanowski is my pick in this one. I believe he can win it inside the distance in the late rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I cannot help but pick Volkonovski. It is one of those things where like I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to pressure. I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to fight on the back foot and counter fight and …"
WIN vs Brian Ortega
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 63 of 195 32% 69 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 106 of 206 51% 113 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 15 of 45 33% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 29 of 57 50% 34 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Diego Lopes 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 22 of 46 47% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Diego Lopes 0 32 of 102 31% 32 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 55 of 103 53% 57 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 63 of 195 32% 52 of 180 4 of 8 7 of 7 61 of 192 1 of 1 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 106 of 206 51% 75 of 172 13 of 15 18 of 19 75 of 161 6 of 7 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 15 of 45 33% 11 of 41 1 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 29 of 57 50% 24 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 4 14 of 31 0 of 0 15 of 26
2 Diego Lopes 16 of 48 33% 12 of 42 1 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 22 of 46 47% 11 of 35 1 of 1 10 of 10 20 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Diego Lopes 32 of 102 31% 29 of 97 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 55 of 103 53% 40 of 87 10 of 11 5 of 5 41 of 87 4 of 4 10 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)

Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.

Placed 1 unit on Lopes at -175.
"Diego Lopez is going to be the pick I have a full unit on him at minus 175"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.

"I got to go Lopez here... I'll officially say Lopez by decision I think Ortega is tough enough to survive these first two rounds... I think Lopez wins it 29-28"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.

"I'm gonna take Brian Ortega um and I you know I took him the first time obviously the pull out's a little bit of a concern uh but the the odds have swung even further in the other direction which …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.

"I'm think I'm picking Lopez but not impressively I think I'm picking Lopez by like a controversial Split Decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.

"I took Lopez last time I'm taking Lopez this time as well bigger younger um I like him much better than the feet and he can uh he can grapple a little bit as well so uh give me the …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.

wins inside the distance
"I expect his BJJ background to say him from the threat that Orga normally puts people in when they get fights to the ground and I do think that Lopez provides more threats in the Striking room as well I'm …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.

"I'm going to go Diego Lopez I'm going to trust in the favorite here... I think he's more switched on as a fighter right now in his career"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 42 of 77 54% 67 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 49 of 100 49% 90 of 143 1 of 3 33% 1 0 4:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:23
2 Diego Lopes 0 8 of 12 66% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 12 of 16 75% 51 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:10
3 Diego Lopes 0 25 of 41 60% 41 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 15 of 37 40% 16 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 42 of 77 54% 34 of 67 4 of 5 4 of 5 24 of 53 3 of 4 15 of 20
Dan Ige 49 of 100 49% 32 of 74 8 of 14 9 of 12 38 of 85 10 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 47 46% 16 of 38 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Diego Lopes 8 of 12 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dan Ige 12 of 16 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Diego Lopes 25 of 41 60% 22 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 22 1 of 1 13 of 18
Dan Ige 15 of 37 40% 10 of 27 2 of 5 3 of 5 13 of 33 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Diego Lopes
ODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)

Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.

"The fade train's going to roll into town here, we're going to go with T-City to take out Diego Lopez."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.

"I like the dog here I'm going Brian Ortega... people have been writing off Brian Ortega for some time... we're literally three fights removed from him damn near submitting Alexander volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.

wins by decision
"I'm leaning towards Ortega by decision... I'm going Brian Ortega here to get past the early adversity and accumulate some top control."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.

"Give me Lopez... far more far more explosive on the feet that's got to be a concern for artega... I'll take the younger fighter who is just been mowing through people."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly with Diego Lopez... I think just where he's at in his career and going up against the guy in Diego Lopez who seems to have all the confidence and all the momentum in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.

"I agree with pretty much everything you said there. The market seems to absolutely love Diego Lopez this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.

finishes in the first round
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez... I reckon he finishes him in the first round"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
TKO (punches) R1 1:29 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 2 26 of 32 81% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 2 26 of 32 81% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 2 of 5 40% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 7 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 2 of 5 40% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 26 of 32 81% 21 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 7 18 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-135), Yusuff (+114)

Round 1
The hits keep right on coming, as well-schooled fist-fighter Yusuff (13-3, 6-2 UFC) would like to professionally break down the surging Lopes (23-6, 2-1 UFC) in front of a wild crowd at the T-Mobile Arena. The lion’s share of Yusuff’s wins have come via strikes, while Lopes is an equal opportunity destroyer. Referee Mark Smith will need to keep his head on a swivel when overseeing these featherweights, and it does not feature a glove touch. Yusuff reaches out with a long low kick, and when that misses, he tries again. Lopes meets him with one that is checked. The two fighters trade calf kicks and little else, until Lopes springs into action with a one-two and a checked low kick. Lopes unloads with an uppercut that knocks “Super Sodiq” off his feet, and Yusuff collapses down to the mat. Lopes gives chase, pounding on his man, and Yusuff fights back to his feet valiantly.
Lopes rushes after him and smashes him in the face with another uppercut, and Yusuff crashes to the ground, totally defeated. Lopes, his mullet waving majestically behind him, drums out a flattened Yusuff with punches to the side of the head, with a seemingly unending barrage of strikes that only concludes when Smith gets between them to call a halt to the one-sided bludgeoning.
This is a huge moment for the meteorically rising Lopes, who will likely be ranked come Monday.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Sodiq Yusuff R1 1:29 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, believing he is the much better striker with good fight IQ to avoid grappling. He notes Lopes has dangerous BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I am going to pick the underdog here in sadik YF but he is going to need to fight a perfect 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Cody fades Diego Lopes again, noting Lopes' wrestling isn't great and he stands tall, leaving himself open to be hit. He points out that Lopes has been taken down by Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker. Yusuff is a sharpshooter with good Jiu-Jitsu from Team Lloyd Irvin, and he has cardio and decent power. Cody believes Yusuff can use a point-fight style, staying at range and picking Lopes apart. He also mentions that Yusuff has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Cody picks Yusuff as an underdog.

Fight goes the distance (+135) or over 1.5 rounds (-180) mentioned as alternatives
"I will go with Underdog number three technically two however we want to look at it that plus money on soq St I'm willing to try to fade Diego Lopez one time."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Lopes, arguing that his relentless chaos and willingness to keep trying different attacks will overwhelm Yusuff. He notes that Yusuff often starts strong but fades as opponents adjust, while Lopes just increases the intensity. Connor admits that Yusuff could win by controlling Lopes on the ground, but he believes Lopes' unpredictability and durability will carry him.

Odds: Lopes opened -169, now -138; Yusuff opened +132, now +124. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I think I am going to pick Diego Lopez. I think the best way to beat him is either to knock him out or finish him very quickly, which most fighters are incapable of doing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Daniel Vreeland picks Sodiq Yusuff, citing his superior boxing, output, and defensive skills. He believes Yusuff can outpoint Lopes and avoid submissions, noting that Lopes is opportunistic but limited. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' finishing ability but trusts Yusuff's experience and durability.

"I truly believe that Sodiq can outpoint this guy"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a banger and says he is very interested in it, but does not give a prediction. He notes that most people won't know about it unless they are hardcore fans, and that it will be on the prelims.

"I'm very very interested in that fight and that fight is going to be on the prelims so to have a fight like that on the prelims it just shows you what Dana has in store for this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Yusuff has better experience and a higher level striking game. His takedown defense and ability to keep the fight upright will force Lopes to make mistakes on the feet, allowing Yusuff to counter and find a knockout in round two.

knockout in round two
"give me Yousef by knockout in round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Paul sides with Cody, noting that Yusuff should have advantages at range. He acknowledges a red flag: Edson Barboza, not known for wrestling, took Yusuff down three times, so Lopes could get the fight to the ground. However, Paul believes Yusuff has enough takedown defense and ground skills to survive. He thinks the fight could go to decision and mentions the decision prop at +250. Paul expects Yusuff to keep the fight upright and win a decision.

Decision prop (+250) mentioned
"I'm going to side with you I think that you know sodi will have just enough takedown defense to keep this one upright and at range."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes to win by rear-naked choke, despite initially considering Sodiq Yusuff. He notes Yusuff struggled against Alex Caceres and that Lopes thrives under pressure. He believes Lopes's finishing ability and scrambling will be too much for Yusuff, who may be hesitant after a five-round war.

rear-naked choke
"I'm going with Diego Lopez rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Zane picks Yusuff, believing his wrestling and clinch control will neutralize Lopes' chaotic style. He notes that Yusuff is a strong wrestler and physically powerful, and Lopes' car-crash approach often leads to him being controlled. Zane acknowledges that Lopes could catch Yusuff with a submission or knockout, but he trusts Yusuff's consistency and defensive grappling.

Odds: Lopes opened -169, now -138; Yusuff opened +132, now +124. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I think I'm going to take use of here. It's only been like stylistically. It doesn't feel like it should be that difficult for him to just sort of neuter Lopez."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
KO (punches) R1 1:30 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)

Round 1
The main card is upon us, and it should provide a grappler’s delight as the two featherweights about to invade the Octagon combine for 23 submission victories without a single defeat via tapout. Aiming to prove he is not just a grappler, action-packed Brazilian contender Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC) will bring his 89% finish rate and try to threaten every step of the fight. With not a great deal of New Yorkers on the card, the UFC dipped into the Tri-State Area to pull Pennsylvanian Sabatini (18-4, 4-1 UFC) up onto the billing, and he too would like to showcase his jiu-jitsu chops when it counts. Referee Keith Peterson will draw the assignment for the pay-per-view opener, and the fighters quickly touch ‘em up. No nonsense will be permitted for the next 15 minutes or less. Both men bounce up and down while quite distant from one another, and Lopes tries to reach with a kick. Sabatini surges forward with a three-punch salvo that gets Lopes’ attention, and Lopes has to shake it off early. Sabatini jumps with a switch kick to the body, and Lopes looks to catch it but lets it go all while chants for “USA” rain down in support of Sabatini. The Pennsylvanian comes up short with another jump kick, and the two come together for a possible takedown effort of some sort. Lopes stands his man up with an uppercut as they try to get upright, and Sabatini is stunned when he tries to take a step back. The Brazilian immediately follows suit with a vicious right hand on the temple, and Sabatini might be out on his feet as he turns to another direction and his eyes go wide. Lopes will not let this fish get away, and he charges after Sabatini with powerful fists until pushing Sabatini down to his side. Lopes traps the Pennsylvania native’s arm behind his back and begins battering Sabatini with his free hand. Sabatini, unable to block his face and clinging to consciousness, gets knocked out, back in, and out again as Lopes punishes him with right hands. Peterson recognizes that Sabatini cannot defend himself at all, and he calls a stop to the beating. What a performance for Lopes, who likely catapults himself into featherweight contendership by wrecking a tough out in about a minute and a half.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

"I think Pat sabatini is going to win this fight and I'm somewhat confident in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Lopes by submission in rounds 2-3
"I'm going to take the dog here in Lopez, I think he gets it done by second or third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

"I like Pat sabbatini I think he gets the takedowns I think he establish top control he avoids those tricky submission attempts"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

"I lean Lopez in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

"at minus 120 sign me up for Pat sabatini"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

"sabatini is just way too suffocating man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.

TKO
"I'm going with Diego Lopez I think he's slick dangerous everywhere I think he's going to get a TKO on Pat satini"
Gavin Tucker - Fight History
CANCEL vs Lee Jeong-yeong
LOSS vs Diego Lopes
Submission (armbar) R1 1:38 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Gavin Tucker 0 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Gavin Tucker 0 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gavin Tucker 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gavin Tucker 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Gavin Tucker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-170), Tucker (+142)

Round 1
Jimmy Neely will ref this featherweight showdown. A Tucker high kick slams off Lopes’ forearm. Tucker tries to land a hard low kick, but it hits the groin, and Lopes doubles over in pain. The action resumes and Tucker loads up an overhand right. Tucker goes for a single leg takedown, and Lopes responds by jumping to his back for a triangle.
Lopes continues to adjust the hold, pulling on the arm at the same time. The choke gets deeper as a result, and Tucker’s arm bends at a gruesome angle as Lopes rolls him into a mounted triangle for style points.
It’s the triangle armbar that brought the tap, a spectacular submission win for Lopes.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Gavin Tucker via Submission (Triangle Armbar) R1 1:38
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Angelo picks Gavin Tucker, citing his high pace, takedowns, and ability to ride to a win. He notes that Diego Lopes relies too much on raw Jiu-Jitsu off his back and gets taken down too easily. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Tucker at +115, but would have a full unit if not for Tucker's two-year layoff. He criticizes recency bias favoring Lopes for not getting finished by a fighter who finishes nobody.

0.5 units at +115
"Gavin's the pick here I have a half a unit on him at plus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Lopes but hates the line (-180). He notes Tucker is 37, coming off a long layoff and a knockout loss, and has durability issues. He thinks Lopes can hurt or submit Tucker, but acknowledges Tucker's path to victory is taking Lopes down and controlling him, as Lopes has poor takedown defense. He would prefer to bet Lopes by submission but warns the price is scary.

Lopes by finish (submission or KO); line movement from +120 to -180 is too much
"I gotta go Lopez here I hate the line though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Cody picks Tucker as a plus-money underdog, citing his BJJ black belt, better wrestling, and counter-striking. He notes Tucker's long layoff and age (37) as risks, but believes Tucker can survive the first round and then take over with takedowns and pressure. He admits recency bias from Lopes' impressive debut but thinks Tucker's advantages in wrestling and experience will prevail.

"I'm gonna go Gavin Tucker... I'm chasing plus money on this one with Gavin Tucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Daniel Levi picks Diego Lopes but hesitantly, citing Lopes' opportunistic finishing ability and Tucker's durability issues. He notes that Lopes is dangerous with submissions and power, but his low output could allow Tucker to outpoint him if he doesn't finish. Levi is concerned about Tucker's age (37) and history of getting knocked out, but also acknowledges Tucker's offensive skills. He believes Lopes will likely need a finish to win, as he doubts Lopes can win a decision.

Suggests looking at Lopes props (by finish) rather than laying the moneyline. No specific prop bet.
"I'm gonna still pick Lopez because Tucker does sketch me out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

James disagrees with the public betting on Tucker. He thinks Tucker is old (37), inactive, and has been hurt and knocked out before. Lopes is a high-volume, heavy-handed fighter who will push a pace Tucker can't keep. James predicts Lopes will finish Tucker, likely via pace or strikes.

finish
"I think Lopez is probably going to finish Gavin Tucker here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is a talented striker with a BJJ black belt, which should be enough to keep the fight safe on the ground. Lopes depends too much on his BJJ and plays off his back, eating clock. Tucker's long layoff due to a rotator cuff injury is a concern, but he's still talented enough to beat Lopes. I'm taking the underdog Tucker by decision.

"give me the underdog shot here on Gavin Tucker and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Paul leans towards Lopes by submission at +230, citing Lopes' impressive short-notice debut and submission skills. He notes Tucker's long layoff and knockout loss, but acknowledges Lopes' takedown defense issues and potential cardio problems. He sees Lopes catching Tucker in a submission early.

Lopes by submission +230
"Diego Lopez by submission which is like plus 230... has my attention"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The host picks Diego Lopes, citing his youth (28), well-roundedness, and forward pressure. He notes Tucker is 37, inactive, and has been knocked out before. He believes Lopes will land big shots and break Tucker down, possibly getting a finish. He likes the line at -142 and expects it to stay under -155.

line opened -125, now -142; suggests Lopes may get a finish
"give me Diego Lopes the younger fighter that's more in his prime right now uh to get the job done"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punch) R1 0:22 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gavin Tucker 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 1 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gavin Tucker 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gavin Tucker 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gavin Tucker 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Big Brady picks Gavin Tucker as an underdog, impressed by his recent performances and wrestling. He notes that Ige can be taken down (59% takedown defense) and Tucker is a BJJ black belt with excellent wrestling. He sees the striking as close and expects Tucker to win a close decision by mixing takedowns and volume. He acknowledges Ige has fought better competition but believes Tucker is in his prime.

"I'm gonna take a shot on Gavin Tucker, I'm not gonna bet it as of now unless the line gets too crazy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, believing he should be favored. He praises Tucker's volume, cardio, footwork, and jiu-jitsu, and notes that Tucker overcame adversity in his last fight. He thinks Dan Ige's chance is landing a big bomb, but Tucker's durability and output will win most minutes. He considers Ige overrated and thinks Tucker's skill set is superior.

"At these odds i think it's tucker pass and i will take tucker to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Lock likes Tucker as a dog, trusting his gas tank more than Ige's. He thinks Tucker is smoother and more fluid on the feet, and can outstrike Ige as long as he avoids Ige's power and jiu-jitsu. Lock believes Tucker's jiu-jitsu can hold up against Ige's. He notes Ige's wins over Barboza and Bektic were close, and that Tucker's cardio is an advantage.

"i do trust gavin tucker's gas tank a little bit more... i think tucker is a little bit more smooth and more fluid on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The Guru acknowledges Gavin Tucker as a live dog but picks Dan Ige due to his experience and a significant 5-inch reach advantage. He believes Ige's jab will be effective and that Ige has proven himself against higher-level competition like Edson Barboza and Calvin Kattar. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision, with Ige landing more shots each round. He also notes Tucker's age (34) and injury concerns.

"i'm going to go with dan iger he's the shorter guy he's got a ridiculously long reach he's got a [ __ ] five inch reach advantage"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 106 of 166 63% 123 of 183 7 of 13 53% 0 0 5:14
Billy Quarantillo 0 84 of 178 47% 136 of 233 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 38 of 63 60% 43 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 33 of 69 47% 44 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Gavin Tucker 0 53 of 76 69% 58 of 81 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 69 55% 43 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 27 55% 22 of 34 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 13 of 40 32% 49 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 106 of 166 63% 68 of 122 31 of 37 7 of 7 71 of 122 32 of 41 3 of 3
Billy Quarantillo 84 of 178 47% 45 of 127 33 of 44 6 of 7 55 of 138 29 of 35 0 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 38 of 63 60% 17 of 41 17 of 18 4 of 4 23 of 47 15 of 16 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 33 of 69 47% 18 of 48 12 of 18 3 of 3 25 of 58 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Gavin Tucker 53 of 76 69% 39 of 59 12 of 15 2 of 2 36 of 53 15 of 21 2 of 2
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 69 55% 20 of 48 16 of 19 2 of 2 25 of 56 13 of 13 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 15 of 27 55% 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 13 of 40 32% 7 of 31 5 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 24 8 of 11 0 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by decision. He likes Quarantillo's high output, durability, cardio, and ground game. He notes Tucker's 40% takedown defense and that Rick Glenn was able to take him down four times, which bodes well for Quarantillo's wrestling.

"give me corn to you by decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel is high on Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and cardio. He questions Tucker's chin and heart, and thinks Quarantillo will walk him down and possibly finish him. He notes Quarantillo is in his prime and has paid his dues.

possible finish
"i'm gonna go with billy q uh to come out here and possibly finish gavin tucker but regardless i'm picking uh bq to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is the more technical striker with better speed and should be able to outpoint Quarantillo. Quarantillo's pressure style may be neutralized by Tucker's movement and body work. Tucker's jiu-jitsu is also high level, so he can hold his own on the ground. The line is a pick'em, but Tucker is the better all-around fighter.

Tucker via decision; over 1.5 rounds
"i think gavin is just a better better all-around fighter... i'll go with gavin tucker to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo in a close fight, noting Quarantillo's youth, size, range, and submission defense. He believes Quarantillo gets better as the fight goes on and will win a 29-28 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Gavin Tucker's grappling but thinks Quarantillo can survive the first round and take over.

"i'm gonna go with billy quarantilo getting the job done building as the fight goes on earning himself a 29-28 close competitive unanimous decision"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:43 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 87 of 211 41% 88 of 212 1 of 2 50% 4 1 1:24
Justin Jaynes 1 41 of 101 40% 42 of 103 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 48 31% 16 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:35
Justin Jaynes 1 28 of 54 51% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:38
2 Gavin Tucker 0 63 of 137 45% 63 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 30 20% 6 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gavin Tucker 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:49
Justin Jaynes 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 87 of 211 41% 61 of 177 23 of 30 3 of 4 86 of 207 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 41 of 101 40% 30 of 84 11 of 17 0 of 0 31 of 87 2 of 2 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 15 of 48 31% 8 of 37 6 of 9 1 of 2 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 28 of 54 51% 19 of 40 9 of 14 0 of 0 19 of 41 1 of 1 8 of 12
2 Gavin Tucker 63 of 137 45% 45 of 115 16 of 20 2 of 2 63 of 137 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 6 of 30 20% 5 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 9 of 26 34% 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

"i do like james to win and i probably will bet him but i'm going to wait until the weigh-ins before i do put a bed"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.

"i gotta lean with gavin tucker here man i think he's a cleaner fighter all across the board"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.

third round submission
"I like Gavin Tucker a lot here I think this is a tailor-made matchup for him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.

"justin james is gonna win he's the bigger guy he just fought frank camacho at lightweight"
WIN vs SeungWoo Choi
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:17 · UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Jul 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 37 of 62 59% 49 of 77 5 of 13 38% 2 1 6:05
SeungWoo Choi 0 23 of 96 23% 42 of 116 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 11 of 15 73% 17 of 21 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:18
SeungWoo Choi 0 7 of 22 31% 16 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
2 Gavin Tucker 0 20 of 37 54% 24 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:44
SeungWoo Choi 0 11 of 52 21% 14 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gavin Tucker 0 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 1 of 6 16% 2 0 2:03
SeungWoo Choi 0 5 of 22 22% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 37 of 62 59% 21 of 40 7 of 11 9 of 11 24 of 45 5 of 7 8 of 10
SeungWoo Choi 23 of 96 23% 11 of 74 12 of 21 0 of 1 13 of 80 10 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3
SeungWoo Choi 7 of 22 31% 4 of 17 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Gavin Tucker 20 of 37 54% 12 of 24 4 of 7 4 of 6 14 of 27 1 of 3 5 of 7
SeungWoo Choi 11 of 52 21% 6 of 40 5 of 11 0 of 1 7 of 45 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 5 of 22 22% 1 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 18 2 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Ricky Glenn
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–24, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 215: Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Glenn 0 23 of 82 28% 43 of 105 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:15
Gavin Tucker 1 142 of 237 59% 184 of 289 4 of 7 57% 1 0 7:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Glenn 0 17 of 58 29% 26 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Gavin Tucker 1 23 of 55 41% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Ricky Glenn 0 4 of 15 26% 10 of 24 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:00
Gavin Tucker 0 35 of 58 60% 49 of 74 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:49
3 Ricky Glenn 0 2 of 9 22% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Gavin Tucker 0 84 of 124 67% 109 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Glenn 23 of 82 28% 14 of 69 5 of 8 4 of 5 12 of 64 9 of 15 2 of 3
Gavin Tucker 142 of 237 59% 96 of 182 40 of 47 6 of 8 31 of 68 23 of 39 88 of 130
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Glenn 17 of 58 29% 9 of 46 4 of 7 4 of 5 11 of 50 6 of 8 0 of 0
Gavin Tucker 23 of 55 41% 14 of 41 6 of 9 3 of 5 18 of 47 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Ricky Glenn 4 of 15 26% 3 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 2 of 5 1 of 1
Gavin Tucker 35 of 58 60% 22 of 42 11 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 7 10 of 18 22 of 33
3 Ricky Glenn 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 2
Gavin Tucker 84 of 124 67% 60 of 99 23 of 24 1 of 1 10 of 14 8 of 13 66 of 97
WIN vs Sam Sicilia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Feb 19, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 10 of 87 11% 10 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Sicilia 0 55 of 163 33% 60 of 168 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Sicilia 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gavin Tucker 0 2 of 24 8% 2 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Sicilia 0 22 of 60 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gavin Tucker 0 6 of 51 11% 6 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Sicilia 0 15 of 56 26% 20 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 10 of 87 11% 9 of 80 0 of 5 1 of 2 9 of 84 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Sicilia 55 of 163 33% 25 of 120 12 of 25 18 of 18 53 of 159 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Sicilia 18 of 47 38% 7 of 34 4 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Gavin Tucker 2 of 24 8% 2 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Sicilia 22 of 60 36% 8 of 39 3 of 10 11 of 11 22 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 6 of 51 11% 6 of 49 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 48 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Sicilia 15 of 56 26% 10 of 47 5 of 9 0 of 0 14 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Angelo picks Gavin Tucker, citing his high pace, takedowns, and ability to ride to a win. He notes that Diego Lopes relies too much on raw Jiu-Jitsu off his back and gets taken down too easily. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Tucker at +115, but would have a full unit if not for Tucker's two-year layoff. He criticizes recency bias favoring Lopes for not getting finished by a fighter who finishes nobody.

0.5 units at +115
"Gavin's the pick here I have a half a unit on him at plus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Lopes but hates the line (-180). He notes Tucker is 37, coming off a long layoff and a knockout loss, and has durability issues. He thinks Lopes can hurt or submit Tucker, but acknowledges Tucker's path to victory is taking Lopes down and controlling him, as Lopes has poor takedown defense. He would prefer to bet Lopes by submission but warns the price is scary.

Lopes by finish (submission or KO); line movement from +120 to -180 is too much
"I gotta go Lopez here I hate the line though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Cody picks Tucker as a plus-money underdog, citing his BJJ black belt, better wrestling, and counter-striking. He notes Tucker's long layoff and age (37) as risks, but believes Tucker can survive the first round and then take over with takedowns and pressure. He admits recency bias from Lopes' impressive debut but thinks Tucker's advantages in wrestling and experience will prevail.

"I'm gonna go Gavin Tucker... I'm chasing plus money on this one with Gavin Tucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Daniel Levi picks Diego Lopes but hesitantly, citing Lopes' opportunistic finishing ability and Tucker's durability issues. He notes that Lopes is dangerous with submissions and power, but his low output could allow Tucker to outpoint him if he doesn't finish. Levi is concerned about Tucker's age (37) and history of getting knocked out, but also acknowledges Tucker's offensive skills. He believes Lopes will likely need a finish to win, as he doubts Lopes can win a decision.

Suggests looking at Lopes props (by finish) rather than laying the moneyline. No specific prop bet.
"I'm gonna still pick Lopez because Tucker does sketch me out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

James disagrees with the public betting on Tucker. He thinks Tucker is old (37), inactive, and has been hurt and knocked out before. Lopes is a high-volume, heavy-handed fighter who will push a pace Tucker can't keep. James predicts Lopes will finish Tucker, likely via pace or strikes.

finish
"I think Lopez is probably going to finish Gavin Tucker here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is a talented striker with a BJJ black belt, which should be enough to keep the fight safe on the ground. Lopes depends too much on his BJJ and plays off his back, eating clock. Tucker's long layoff due to a rotator cuff injury is a concern, but he's still talented enough to beat Lopes. I'm taking the underdog Tucker by decision.

"give me the underdog shot here on Gavin Tucker and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Paul leans towards Lopes by submission at +230, citing Lopes' impressive short-notice debut and submission skills. He notes Tucker's long layoff and knockout loss, but acknowledges Lopes' takedown defense issues and potential cardio problems. He sees Lopes catching Tucker in a submission early.

Lopes by submission +230
"Diego Lopez by submission which is like plus 230... has my attention"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The host picks Diego Lopes, citing his youth (28), well-roundedness, and forward pressure. He notes Tucker is 37, inactive, and has been knocked out before. He believes Lopes will land big shots and break Tucker down, possibly getting a finish. He likes the line at -142 and expects it to stay under -155.

line opened -125, now -142; suggests Lopes may get a finish
"give me Diego Lopes the younger fighter that's more in his prime right now uh to get the job done"