Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
Career Averages - Ode' Osbourne
Asu Almabayev
Ode' Osbourne
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-250); Johnson (+200)
Round 1
The UFC Baku main card is about to get a jolt of caffeine, as there’s nothing quite like a men’s flyweight scrap to break up the grind. Almabayev and Johnson are ready to go. The third man in the Octagon is Herb Dean. The fourth man in the Octagon is Johnson’s hair. Both men are in orthodox stance, and immediately trade fast kicks, Johnson to the legs, Almabayev to the body. Johnson is switching stances frequently in the early going. Almabayev stalks forward, stance-agnostic: he’s simply kicking the front leg, whichever it happens to be. Almabayev nails Johnson with a left hook, then another. That one draws an acknowledging nod from the American. Almabayev steps into the pocket and, with Johnson perhaps expecting the left hand again, instead grabs a single-leg and treetops him for an easy takedown. Almabayev parks in Johnson’s spidery guard, and Johnson does not let him get comfortable, using his arms and butterfly hooks to keep him off balance. Almabayev stands up out of Johnson’s guard, and when Johnson sits up, he slaps on a guillotine choke. Johnson fights the hands diligently, and Almabayev gives up on the submission. Almabayev lets Johnson up, and takes him right back down, this time into side control. Johnson regains guard just before the 30-second mark. The horn sounds with Almabayev dropping punches from full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle of the cage and unleash a flurry of punches on each other, with both men landing. Almabayev stalks forward behind a pawing lead hand, then spins and digs a heel kick into Johnson’s midsection. Almabayev lands a right hand. Johnson is still in possession of his faculties and defending himself, but he’s getting lit up right now. Almabayev tags Johnson with a punch that knocks him down, mostly off-balance, and Johnson springs back up. Almabayev throws another spinning back kick, and this one lands squarely on Johnson’s johnson with a “clock” that can be heard halfway to Samarkand. Joe Rogan, in his compound outside of Austin, Texas, screams about Thai steel cups. Dean gives Johnson a respite and Almabayev a warning, and they go back to work. Almabayev secures a glass-smooth takedown and is all over Johnson, staying snug in top position as Johnson scrambles and looks for a knee shield to get some separation. Almabayev drops a couple of hard punches, then looks to take Johnson’s back. Johnson defends well, getting back to full guard, but Almabayev is relentless, and he makes his way to Johnson’s back as Johnson kneels in the center of the cage. At the 10-second clapper, Almabayev tries for a rear-naked choke, but can’t get anything going before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
Johnson’s corner tells the former Olympic steeplechaser between rounds that this is a sprint, not a marathon, and he comes right out with a couple of long punches and a front kick before giving up yet another easy takedown. Almabayev blunders into a reverse triangle choke and it looks uncomfortable, but not immediately threatening. Johnson gives up the choke and Almabayev settles into his half guard, heavy and low on top. Johnson is active on bottom, scrambling and offering a dozen different looks, and Almabayev just floats brilliantly, staying a step ahead of everything. Johnson turns his back and Almabayev sinks in a body triangle, taking back mount in the middle of the cage with half the round left.
Almabayev is riding a bit high but switches from a body triangle to conventional hooks, then grabs Johnson’s leg, wraps the body triangle back up and hits a Suloev stretch!
Are you kidding me? After such a wrestling and grappling masterclass, what a perfect valedictory by Asu Almabayev.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Charles Johnson R3 3:33 via Submission (Suloev Stretch)
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, citing his consistent wrestling and cardio. He thinks Johnson is unreliable and that Almabayev's takedown threat will win rounds. AJ notes Johnson's getup game but believes Almabayev's accuracy and mixing of strikes will secure a decision.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting him to outwrestle Johnson. He thinks Almabayev is craftier and has better wrestling than Johnson's previous opponents. He notes Johnson tends to struggle against fellow veterans and that the fight likely goes the distance.
Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.
Angelo picks Almabayev, noting that Johnson stays on the outside and lacks forward pressure, which Almabayev needs to be effective. He thinks Almabayev can do what he wants without pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Angelo considers Charles Johnson plus 3.5 at even money, thinking Johnson can win a round and that the fight likely goes to decision. He notes that plus 3.5 covers a win, split decision loss, or clean 29-28 loss, making it a good bet at even money.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.
Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.
Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.
Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.
The host expects this fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He believes Almabaev's ability to mix in grappling at key moments and land big shots on the feet will keep Johnson on the back foot, leading to a decision win for Almabaev.
Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.
The Guru picks Almabayev via decision, but admits he doesn't have a strong read. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and conditioning will be key, but acknowledges Johnson's knockout power. He is not confident and spends little time on the breakdown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-175), Nicolau (+145)
Round 1
A ranked flyweight encounter will wrap up the prelims, as Nicolau (19-4-1, 7-3 UFC) wishes to save his place among the top 10 while on a skid. To do so, he will have to break the 16-fight win streak for the aggressive Kazakhstan native Almabaev (20-2, 3-0 UFC). Referee Keith Peterson will have hands full to keep up with these speedy competitors, although they show plenty of respect for another and not a lick of nonsense as they clap hands before engaging. Almabaev moves to the center of the cage, pawing out his jab, while Nicolau is more jittery on the outside feinting and faking. It takes 30 seconds for the first strike to land, a low kick from Almabaev. When Almabaev tries a second, Nicolau whizzes a right hand over the top just past Almabaev’s head. Almabaev kicks low and then chains another to the body, and Nicolau cannot make him pay for the blows. Almabaev darts in, missing the mark with a booming uppercut. Almabaev jabs the body, and Nicolau is singularly focused on counters. Almabaev spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the Brazilian’s noggin, and Nicolau is still stuck without any ideas. When Nicolau lashes out, Almabaev is there to catch him with a check left hook. Almabaev lands a spinning back kick to the ribs, and Nicolau backs off and eventually aims a left up top and a jab to the body. Almabaev lands another jab to the ribs and gets off a low kick before having to block a counter. Almabaev slams his shin in the midsection of his opponent, and he attempts a Superman punch that is just shy of the mark. Nicolau jabs out with a front kick, misses with a high kick and the tepid round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is a clap of hands to get things going, and Almabaev is quick to crowd his opponent with a right hook and a head kick on the other side. Nicolau delivers a clean calf kick, but it is one-and-done. Almabaev steps in with a knee to the body, and Nicolau catches it and thinks of taking the fight down. They land in 50-50 position and get out of it to reset, where Almabaev scores a spinning back kick to the sternum. Almabaev overswings and gets countered, and he prods out a front kick that brushes past the cheek of his adversary. They time short hooks at the same time, neither man willing to give much grown or commit to a great deal of offense. Nicolau watches an overhand right soar past him, pushing Almabaev away without landing his own. Almabaev shoots in for a single, and Nicolau hops back to the wall, grabs the fence and is dragged to a knee briefly. Nicolau pulls out of the attempt and catches Almabaev with a left hand, and when Almabaev dives after a single, Nicolau hammers him with elbows to the side of the head. Almabaev drags him down, and Nicolau pops up and threatens with a guillotine choke. Almabaev lifts his opponent’s leg up, and Nicolau snatches hold of a guillotine choke and has it locked down. Nicolau rolls to the side and nearly into mount, and Almabaev toughs it out and turns enough to survive. Nicolau gets to his feet, and Almabaev stands too, his shorts nearly down by his waist. Nicolau allows his opponent to pull his shorts back up before engaging, and he surges into action with a few lunging strikes. The round ends with Almabaev tossing out a left hand and a high kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
The last round kicks off with a glove touch, and Almabaev wants to get things going by tossing out a number of low kicks. Nicolau hand-fights and parries punches from up top, and Almabaev sits down on an uppercut that splits the guard at the same time as Nicolau fires. Nicolau stumbles, and Almabaev tackles him over and claims full mount. Under fire, the Brazilian takes further punishment as Almabaev tries to drum him out, and Nicolau pushes his feet off the fence and grabs hold of a leglock. Almabaev turns through what becomes a heel hook to reestablish himself on top, and he sits down heavily in half guard. Nicolau attempts another leglock, and once more Almabaev easily spins through it to never find himself in danger. Nicolau scrambles, turning to his knees, and Almabaev bowls him over to his back again. Almabaev in half guard smothers the Brazilian, nullifying his offense other than the occasional submission setup. Nicolau uses butterfly hooks on the hips to push Almabaev off of him, and he hacks at the Kazakhstani fighter with elbows from his back but is taking heavier strikes from the man on top of him. Nicolau scoots his way towards the fence but Almabaev turns him the right direction to stifle him from wall-walking. Almabaev remains busy while on top, landing punches and elbows without fear of reprisal. Nicolau gets up with seconds to spare, frustrated at himself for being shut down and likely on the losing end of a decision. Time expires, and Nicolau punches the cage wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Matheus Nicolau via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 77 of 109 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 11:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 3:52 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 29 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jose Johnson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Johnson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-470), Johnson (+360)
Round 1
There will be a fairly radical size discrepancy in this next flyweight tilt. At 5-foot-4, the not-undersized Almabaev (19-2, 2-0 UFC) aims to keep his mighty 15-fight win streak intact. As for his opponent, “No Way Jose” Johnson (16-8, 1-1 UFC) heard the critics saying “No Way” to his cut down to 125 pounds. At an even six feet, Johnson will become the tallest fighter in UFC flyweight history when he steps in the cage. Referee Herb Dean checks the two in as they bump fists, and they both try to find their range early. After about 20 seconds, Almabaev aims a leg kick, and when he is a few inches short, Johnson stands back and watches it zoom by as he showboats. Johnson uses his distance to jab with the ball of his foot and his fists, and he plants a heavy low kick on the lead wheel. When Johnson strikes with another kick, Almabaev decides he is sick of playing on the outside and grabs the kick out of mid-air and slings Johnson down to the mat with gravitas. Almabaev moves into the guard of his opponent, and Johnson is busy off his back slugging away with anything he can find. Johnson tries to kick off the hips in search of a sweep or escape, and when that fails, he lifts his legs up high for a possible triangle choke. Almabaev shrugs it off and stays as tight as he can on the six-footer, landing short shots to the body and the occasional right hand to the head. Johnson hacks with elbows off his back before hitting a sweep that allows him to stand back up. Almabaev clings to him from behind before dragging the taller man down, and when Johnson stands once more, Almabaev leaps to take his back. Almabaev gets one hook in and isolates the neck, and he slithers his right arm under the chin. Johnson hand-fights to break up the submission, and he claws Almabaev off of him. Almabaev drags him down to the floor for a second, and he hits a quick mat return and then one more. Johnson pops up every time he is grounded from this position, and Almabaev looks for a trip or some knees to the thigh to stay busy. Almabaev pulls Johnson down from behind, and Johnson spins around and works his way up. The positional exchange in the clinch is where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is no glove touch to start the round, as Almabaev instead wants to measure a perfect wheel kick that smashes into the side of the American’s head. Johnson takes it like a champ and does not so much as wobble, although he takes time to reset. This allows Almabaev to spin for a kick to the ribs, and he plants his feet and shoots for a double. Johnson bowls him over and lands in full mount, but Almabaev keeps moving and turns the taller man over. Johnson locks his legs around the head of his opponent with a triangle choke, but his left leg is beneath the armpit so Almabaev is not overly concerned. Johnson tries to move the submission around and regather his leg grip, and the Kazakh fighter stacks Johnson up until he breaks out of it. Johnson is a little lax when they split, allowing Almabaev to circle around, get both hooks in and start hunting for a rear-naked choke. Almabaev moves over to full mount rather than going for the choke, and this lets Johnson recover his butterfly hooks to push Almabaev back a smidge. Almabaev sits up and elbows him in the chops a few times, and Johnson closes his guard but is still getting worked. Almabaev keeps control from above, stifling the lanky striker and getting off ground-and-pound. Almabaev steps over to half guard while raining down right hands, and he disallows Johnson from any escape attempt. Johnson turns over to give his back up, and Almabaev welcomes this and takes it while getting a hook in from behind. Almabaev softens his man up with strikes until he latches on with a rear-naked choke, and the grip is not right so he lets it go. A few more punches get around the guard before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Gloves get touched to begin the last round, and Almabaev introduces himself with a thudding leg kick and a spinning kick to the ribs. As he plants his feet after the second, Almabaev races forward and tackles Johnson to the floor. Johnson wall-walks to get upright, but Almabaev has his grip around the waist and ragdolls the taller man around the cage wall. Johnson remains on his feet, and he rides out the takedown try of the man from Kazakhstan to wind up in the top position. Almabaev scrambles and inadvertently gives his back up, and Johnson sneaks one hook in. Almabaev is warned for grabbing the inside of the gloves to turn himself about, and Johnson clings to him with a body triangle and keep the back. Almabaev keeps turning until he manages to get enough space in the body lock to spin and move into the guard. Johnson spams short, meaningless punches to the ear, and he slides his leg up for a high guard setup. Almabaev tosses the limb to the side and smacks him in the face with his right hand twice before jamming an elbow into Johnson’s mug. Almabaev steps over to half guard and thinks about setting up an arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to whack Johnson with wide-arcing hammerfists. Johnson appears irritated but in no danger, and Almabaev traps his right arm beneath his body. Almabaev releases it so he can line up a heavy right hand, and he shifts over to half guard on the other side. Johnson turns to get away, and Almabaev secures his back and locks down a body triangle. Almabaev sneaks in a few right hands around the guard to give Johnson something to think about, and he slides one arm around the chin and does not secure it on the other side. Johnson turns to try to break up the choke again, and Almabaev squeezes with every bit of his remaining energy on what looks to be a face crank. The forearm again slips beneath the jaw, and it is tight. Almabaev eats a surprisingly fierce elbow from Johnson, and he continues to crush with his submission arm. The choke does not succeed, and Johnson reaches the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Jose Johnson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.
Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.
Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.
Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.
Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.
Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-535), Vergara (+400)
Round 1
For the third time in his last six fights, Vergara (12-4-1, 3-2 UFC) failed to make weight. He surrenders 30% of his purse Almabaev (18-2, 1-0 UFC), who has not engaged in a Zhekpe Zhek match unlike fellow flyweight countryman Bekzat Almakhan. While Vergara will be putting his two-fight win streak on the line, the 30-year-old from Kazakhstan has won his last 14 outings dating back to 2017. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson, who starts the nonsense-free fight as the two men touch gloves. Almabaev says hello with a vicious calf kick, dropping Vergara to his knees immediately. The American climbs back up, and he is met with a body kick and a right hand. Vergara keeps his hands extremely low, perhaps to prepare for a takedown entry, and Almabaev circles on the outside before spinning to kick him in the chest with a back kick. Vergara finally strikes at the one-minute mark, landing a single leg kick, and Almabaev answers with one to the ribs before shooting for a takedown. Vergara sprawls to defend it, and Almabaev re-enters in pursuit of a single-leg takedown. This time, the Kazakhstani fighter gets it, but only for a moment. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev stays pinned to him and manages to get a hook around the side while Vergara leans on the fencing. Vergara hand-fights to prevent another entry, and Almabaev turns the corner and drags Vergara to his knee. Almabaev hammers the thigh with a few knees before lifting Vergara up and slinging him to the mat. Vergara springs back up, and he stops a second high-amplitude attempt from his opponent. Almabaev lets Vergara turn, so that he can lift him up and slam him down once more. Vergara is able to return to his feet before long, and Almabaev remains tight goes to change levels. Vergara spins him around briefly, only to get warned for grabbing the fence. Vergara lands a knee to force a break, and Almabaev chases after him and drills him in the midsection with a spin kick. Vergara opens up with a big uppercut that gets Almabaev’s attention, and Almabaev responds with a shot in the open cage and succeeds in using a double-leg takedown to ground him. Almabaev moves to side control, and as Vergara turns, Almabaev jumps into full mount. Almabaev floats over to maintain top position as Vergara scrambles, and he ends the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
Almabaev advances out of his corner to move to the middle of the Octagon, and Vergara stays on the outer edge picking away with low kicks. Almabaev spins with a kick that lands in the chest, and he dances back before Vergara can reach him. Vergara lands a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand. Vergara leaves his hands by his side, and he raises one every so often to strike with. Almabaev takes a right hand, and he grabs hold of a single, runs the pipe and drags Vergara to the mat. Almabaev lands in guard and starts smacking Vergara with hammerfists, staying busy with ground-and-pound while working on a guard pass. Vergara slaps Almabaev in the side of the head with a palm, and Almabaev grinds on him and lands occasional strikes. Vergara looks for elbows off his back, and he keeps the Kazakhstani fighter in his guard. Almabaev slides to half guard and presses Vergara down to pursue an arm-triangle choke. Vergara sits up, and he gets his arm controlled like a seat belt and slugged in the face. Vergara turns to his side and stands, and Almabaev lifts him up and slams him to the canvas, where he lands in immediate back control. Vergara twists, and Almabaev flows and follows him to continue connecting with some offense. Vergara explodes but is unable to get off of his back, and he tries to scoot towards the wall. Almabaev lays into him with several unanswered right hands, until Vergara flattens himself out. Almabaev falls off the back when Vergara stands, and Vergara ducks a spinning back fist and blocks a head kick before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Almabaev moves right to the center of the cage to initiate his offense in the final round, and Vergara stands before him and is ready to trade. Almabaev spins with a strike, and Vergara ducks it and counters with a big right hand. Almabaev shoots down low for a takedown, and Vergara answers with a knee that connects cleanly. Almabaev bounces back up, chases after Vergara and kicks him in the side. Vergara squares up and looks to unload with power punches, and that is when Almabaev shoots for a takedown and wrenches the Texan down to the mat. Almabaev circles around to take the back, and he gets both hooks in almost instantly. Vergara times a spin to escape the position, and the two get back to striking range. Almabaev whiffs on a spin, and Vergara sits down on a body kick. Almabaev aims a right up top, spins with a wheel kick that bangs into the side of the head, and he shoots. Vergara stuffs it, and he gets beaned with a right hand that wobbles him. Almabaev follows him and knees him in the head, and Vergara fires back to make Almabaev change his approach. Almabaev goes for another takedown when Vergara kicks high, and he succeeds in grounding Vergara temporarily. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev doggedly pursues a single. Vergara attempts a standing submission to threaten or force a break, and Almabaev steps back and spins with a back kick that does not land cleanly. Vergara loads up on heavy punches, and Almabaev retreats and resets. Vergara lands with a strike or two, but he throws so hard that Almabaev takes him down as the commentary booth groans in frustration as they sound like they are rooting for one fighter over the other rather than calling the action objectively. Vergara gets back up, and Almabaev moves around to take the back and drag Vergara from behind. Almabaev sets up a rear-naked choke, and Vergara hand-fights and keeps his neck free from danger to ride out the position and end the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. C.J. Vergara via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-185), Osbourne (+154)
Round 1
Gary Copeland will be the third man in the cage for this flyweight affair. They touch gloves and Almabaev opens with a low kick right away. Almabaev stays on the outside and attacks with an inside leg kick. Almabaev steps in and connects with an overhand right. Osborne shakes it off and looks for openings to attack. Almavaev loads up for another overhand right and shoots for a single leg takedown, planting Osbourne on his seat in the center of the cage. Almabaev pushes Osbourne to his back and settles into his opponent’s full guard. Almabaev works to create space for ground-and-pound, landing the occasional punch or elbow. Osbourne works his legs up and briefly threatens with a triangle before absorbing a solid left hand. Almabaev is content to work inside guard while methodically landing punches with either hand. Osbourne brings his leg up again, but Almabaev clears the legs and passes to side control. Almabaev lands an elbow that Osbourne doesn’t like, and he transitions to a modified guillotine choke. Osbourne survives until the horn. It's noteworthy that Almabaev is bleeding, presumably from an elbow Osbourne landed from his back.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
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Round 2
Almabaev throws a head kick before shooting for a takedown. Osbourne does a good job using the fence to remain upright before separating from the clinch. Almabaev is throwing big strikes: a head kick, an overhand right and then a spinning kick, which is followed by a failed double leg. Almabaev goes for a couple low kicks, then gets deep on a body lock and trips Osbourne to the canvas. Almabaev works his way to Osbourne’s back. Osbourne gets to a knee before his foe jumps on his back and pulls him down with a body triangle in place. Almabaev lands some punches while hunting for the rear-naked choke. Osbourne briefly has wrist control before
Almabaev deftly slides his right arm around his opponent’s jaw. The choke isn’t completely under Osbourne’s neck, but the squeeze is tight.
Osbourne has no choice but to tap after a few seconds of resistance.
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Ode Osbourne via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 3:11
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Ode' Osbourne - Fight History
AJ picks Alessandro Costa to win by submission, noting Costa's knockout power and submission threat. He believes Costa's low stance and power make him hard to takedown, and that Cody Durden will struggle with Costa's boxing and grappling. He expects Costa to hurt Durden on the feet and potentially submit him.
This fight was removed from the card. Big Brady mentions it was replaced by Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden. No pick is made for the original matchup.
Daniel Levi picks his personal friend Cody Durden to win, citing Durden's high pace and ability to outwork opponents. He acknowledges Costa's power but believes Durden can avoid getting caught and mix in wrestling to secure a decision. Levi notes Durden's recent reinvigorated performance against Jafel Filho.
The host believes Cody Durden's pace, pressure, and cardio will overwhelm Alessandro Costa, who is on short notice. He notes Durden's durability is a concern but expects him to outwork Costa in striking and scrambles, leading to a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 48 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 62 of 117 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 19 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 24 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 32 of 90 | 35% | 21 of 74 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 84 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 30 of 75 | 40% | 22 of 58 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 22 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 12 of 30 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 14 of 33 | 42% | 7 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 7 of 23 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 10 of 31 | 32% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Idiris opens with an inside low kick and then shoots for a takedown. Osbourne shucks him aside. Idiris leaps in with a right and it sits Osbourne down. The flyweights are back to it and Idiris lands another impactful right. Osbourne kicks the body. Idiris lands a leg kick and drives Osbourne into the fence. Idiris goes from a foot stomp to a shoulder strike. They move off the fence and Idiris trips Osbourne down. Idiris is inside his foe’s full guard. Osbourne creates space with his guard momentarily, but Idiris dives right back into top position. Idiris advances to side half guard. Osbourne stands but Idiris is attached to his back. Osbourne is able to free himself, and he counters a leaping Idiris nicely. Idiris steps in and lands another big right. A 1-2 lands for Osbourne and he eludes a takedown attempt. Osbourne catches Idiris with a right hook. Idiris moves in an lands an upward elbow.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Round 2
Osbourne pressures early and connects with a combination followed by a body kick. Idiris shoots and Osbourne defends and breaks form the clinch. Idiris absorbs a couple body shots from Osbourne, who sprawls on a takedown. Idiris lands a leg kick. Osbourne lines up a left hand. Idiris lunges in with a right. Idiris grabs a hold of a leg and takes Osbourne down near the fence. Idiris is looking to work his way to the back against the cage. Idiris softens him with punches, but Osbourne turns. Now Idiris is in half guard, flat on his back. Osbourne stands and lands a couple knees before the break. Idiris lands a glancing head kick. Osbourne answers with a 1-2. A counter right lands for Idiris, who shoots for a takedown against the fence. Osbourne knees the body as he defends. Idiris nonetheless powers Osbourne to the mat with a body lock takedown. Idiris drops some heavy elbows from above, then switches to hammerfists as Osbourne scrambles. Idiris unloads with a couple more shots as they stand.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Round 3
Idiris follows a body kick with a combination. Osbourne throws a kick that Idiris catches, and he dumps his foe to the mat. Idiris drops a heavy elbow from inside guard. Osbourne scrambles up and creates space, landing a combination. A left backs up Idiris temporarily. Osbourne partially lands a high kick. A stiff jab hits the mark for Osbourne. Osbourne ducks under a punch for a takedown but Idiris defends without issue. Idiris loads up and lands a big left. Idiris turns the corner and grounds Osbourne about halfway through the frame. Osbourne reverses into top position. Idiris is still throwing strikes from his back. Idiris is looking to turn this into a takedown. While that doesn’t happen, Idiris works his way back up and goes on the attack. He fires punches and shoves Osbourne back into the fence. From the clinch, Idiris lands a knee late, and he’ll end the fight in control.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
The Official Result
Alibi Idiris def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.
Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.
Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.
Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.
James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.
Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.
Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.
Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 26 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 17 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 35 of 74 | 47% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 17 of 32 | 53% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 11 of 25 | 44% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-400); Osbourne (+300)
Round 1
We have reached the co-main event, a battle between two flyweights who decided that they would be better suited competing at 135 pounds on late notice. Former title challenger Erceg (12-4, 3-3 UFC) has run into a competitive wall as of late, and he fights down in the rankings to take on Osbourne (13-8, 1 NC; 5-6 UFC). The referee for tonight’s penultimate match will Mark Smith, and the athletes tap gloves together before getting down to it.
Osbourne claims the center of the cage, fishing with his jab and awkward up-and-down hand movement. Osbourne kicks the front leg of his foe multiple times, and he sits back when Erceg advances to aim a counter. The left hand from Osbourne bounces Erceg off the wall, who rebounds and lets go with a big overhand right. Osbourne chips at the heavy favorite, chewing up his knee with oblique kicks and parrying the oncoming fire. Osbourne times Erceg with two crisp punches, standing the former title challenger up and marking up his nose. Osbourne continues chopping at the knee with kicks, and he narrowly dodges a big right hand up top. Osbourne keeps moving his hands in circular motions, and when Erceg comes in, he pops him in the chops with a right hand. Erceg slings a right hand to set up a takedown shot, and Osbourne springboards off the wall to get out and back to kickboxing range. The Aussie just misses a looping right hand, and he stands a little too still after swinging.
Osbourne fires off a huge right hand to the temple, and Erceg crashes face-first into the wall. Still somewhat with it, Erceg looks for a single, pushing the underdog to the fence while trying to recover. Osbourne starts smacking him upside the head while defending the takedown, and he uses his weight to topple over on top of Erceg. Osbourne scrambles to take his back, and Erceg keeps moving and gets back to his feet. Erceg turns the tables on his opponent, wrangling him to the mat and snaking around to take his back. Erceg starts hunting for a rear-naked choke while getting his hooks in, and Osbourne times a moment to spin around in the guard and wind up on top without getting subbed. Osbourne tosses out a head kick as Erceg stands, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 2
The athletes hand-fight to start off until Osbourne looses a big body kick. Erceg’s attempted counter is caught with a right hand on the jaw. Erceg calms himself down and shoots for a single, pressing the underdog to the wall. Erceg works the body with short punches to try to take some of the sting out of the punches. They switch position while clinches until Osbourne breaks free.
Both men throw out jabs, and Osbourne connects with a hard inside leg kick. Erceg boots Osbourne upside the head, and “The Jamaican Sensation” does not bat an eye. Erceg sticks out a few right hands, using them to set up a takedown shot. A knee from Erceg bangs into the cup, and Osbourne grimaces and Smith tells the fouling fighter to watch it. There is no break, so Osbourne takes it into his own hands to separate himself. Erceg reaches after him with a body kick on the way out. Erceg steps in with a left hand, and Osbourne busts him in the chops with a right hand that staggers him. The Aussie’s takedown shot fails, but his front kick after it digs into the body. Osbourne stays elusive and trips Erceg coming forward, but he misses a few big hooks. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to start the final frame, and they both land at the same time. Erceg pitches a head kick that Osbourne is able to partially block, and Osbourne shrugs it off and gets after the former title challenger. Osbourne connects with a hard right hand, and Erceg stumbles and shakes it off to go for a single. “The Jamaican Sensation” trades in the pocket for a moment, and he calms down to thrust out jabs. Erceg digs him with a single punch, chaining it into a few more with a right hand at the end. Erceg lands first and last in a flurry, and he shoots for a double and lifts Osbourne off the ground. Erceg dumps his foe to the mat, allowing Osbourne to scramble so he can get to a more advantageous position.
The Aussie steps into half guard, staying heavy and flat chest-to-chest to not let Osbourne buck him off. Rather than attack, Erceg smothers, to which he uses the heavy pressure to advance to full mount. Osbourne spins around to his knees, and Erceg welcomes this too so he can get his back. “Astro Boy” secures the body triangle, and he loops his left arm beneath the chin but does not have the anchor arm to complete it. Perhaps due to the sweatiness of both men, but Osbourne is able to squirm around and work his way out of bad position and upright again. Erceg aggressively grabs Osbourne and chucks him to the floor, where Osbourne lands on his knees taking fire on both sides of his head. Erceg fastens a rear-naked choke that is on the chin and not under it, and he bails on it to sit up and deliver two gnarly punches before time expires. The second round could be the difference-maker as to who prevailed in this co-headliner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Osbourne)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.
Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.
Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.
The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.
Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 26 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 21 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 18 of 43 | 41% | 11 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Luis Gurule | 12 of 34 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 7 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 19 | 26% | 1 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 13 of 24 | 54% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Luis Gurule | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-218), Osbourne (+180)
Round 1
His back likely against the wall in this flyweight pairing, Osbourne (12-8, 1 NC; 4-6 UFC) will try to put his three-fight skid in the past. He welcomes Factory X product Gurule (10-0, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion, with the latter working his way up the Fury FC circuit to reach the Contender Series last year. The 125ers will have referee Jason Herzog watching over the action to make sure nothing goes awry, and they elect to touch gloves first. Gurule leads off with a kid to the side, and Osbourne pays him back immediately with one. Gurule kicks low, and he darts away to the side and offers another. Osbourne kicks him in the side twice, and Gurule answers with a left hand and a high kick—both are blocked, but the sheer momentum budges him a bit. Osbourne walks Gurule down and punches him square in the face, and Gurule has to rebound off the fence to blink it out. “The Jamaican Sensation” goes after his foe with his rangy strikes, and he catches a body kick to come up with his other leg and boot Gurule in the face. They trade kicks on the outside, and Gurule ducks a punch and flips Osbourne all the way over to slam him down on his back. Gurule lands directly in side control and uses his shoulder to press down on Osbourne’s face and keep him flat on the canvas. Gurule looks for full mount, and he is bounced out of it while slashing down with an elbow. Osbourne pulls him back to half guard, and Gurule accepts this so he can elbow the Wisconsin native further. Gurule drops down some ground-and-pound, spurring Osbourne into desperately returning to his feet with 20 seconds left. Gurule drops for a single, and he lets it go to wing a left hand over the top. Gurule has a head kick bounce off the guard, and they clash with kicks at the same time to conclude the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Round 2
A fist bump leads into the action, where Gurule lets loose three kicks in rapid succession. Gurule ducks a strike to come up with a left hand, and he dances away from a one-two but is still in range for a front kick. Osbourne catches his man at the end of a right, and he times a ducking Gurule with an uppercut. The strike stops Gurule from completing the takedown, as Osbourne breaks free and jabs out a few times. Both men sting one another with long, straight punches, and Osbourne blocks a kick to drive a one-two down the pipe. When Gurule offers out a kick, Osbourne snipes him from his distance. This happens a second time, a naked kick from the unbeaten fighter is met with a concussive left hand that sends him to the floor in a heap.
Osbourne is surprised at the success of his blow, and he has to commit to finishing the fight rather than walking off. He leaps on the side of his opponent and hammers him with a number of unanswered right hands. As the punches continue to mount, Herzog says enough is enough and calls a halt to the match.
Just like that, the upset has been completed, while Gurule has been firmly ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten. Meanwhile, Osbourne can rest a little easier with that win on his belt, having put Gurule down with what he called a “Dewey Cooper special.”
The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Luis Gurule R2 1:54 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo acknowledges Ode' Osbourne is better than his recent record and nearly won his last fight, but he thinks Osbourne may be dejected after three losses and that his grappling gaps remain. He picks Luis Gurule due to his pressure, power, and grappling, but warns that undefeated UFC debuts often lose and advises against betting. He calls it a trap fight where Osbourne could win out of nowhere.
Big Brady picks Luis Gurule despite not being impressed with him. He notes Ode' Osbourne has durability and cardio issues, often fading after the first round. He expects Gurule's solid cardio and durability to take over as the fight progresses, leading to a decision win.
Connor picks Osbourne but is not confident. He notes that Osbourne is a stiff test for Gurule, who has a raw game and may not be on the level. He mentions that Osbourne's experience against better competition should matter, but also that Osbourne's losses follow a pattern of losing to better athletes.
Gurule is making his UFC debut with a 10-0 record and is expected to put on a pace and pressure that Osbourne cannot keep up with, leading to a third-round stoppage.
The Guru picks Luis Gurule, noting his undefeated record and grindy style. He criticizes Ode' Osbourne for losing to Ronaldo Rodriguez and having multiple submission losses. He expects a close decision but thinks the prospect will get the nod over Osbourne, who he considers not good enough.
Zane picks Osbourne, citing his experience and speed advantage. He notes that Osbourne is too quick and experienced for Gurule, who is raw and not a great athlete. However, he acknowledges that Osbourne tends to fade after the first round and that Gurule's pressure could be a factor in the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 35 of 69 | 50% | 68 of 117 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 9:14 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 55 of 93 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 4:14 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 29 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodríguez | 35 of 69 | 50% | 29 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 38 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 37 of 68 | 54% | 28 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 | |
| 2 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 19 of 24 | 79% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 22 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 10 of 31 | 32% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-135), Osbourne (+114)
Round 1
Before the main card commences, the UFC really shows off what the Sphere can do. A few videos play, and we find ourselves in Level 2, in front of some Aztec-looking pyramids. This is the real deal. As far as fights go, a bit of a sleeper matchup became one much noisier on Thursday courtesy of Rodriguez’ (16-2, 1-0 UFC) on-stage verbal confrontation with Osbourne (12-7, 1 NC; 4-5 UFC). Spanish-speaking viewers might have had their ears filled with all sorts of obscenity, but it may have been just what the doctor ordered to spice up this 125-pound affair. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep clean what has turned into a slight grudge match, one that has devolved to the point that they opt not to touch ‘em up before proceeding. Osbourne immediately fights behind his jab, landing two clean left hands behind them. Rodriguez tries to parry the blows and ends up eating two hard body kicks. Rodriguez recklessly attacks with a naked kick, and Osbourne counters him with a blistering right hand that sends “Lazy Boy” collapsing to the mat. Osbourne follows him to the ground to finish the job, dropping down hammerfists and punches, and he snatches up a triangle choke and rolls to his back to lock it down. Rodriguez clings to consciousness and absorbs several elbows at the top of the head, and he miraculously stands himself up to free himself from the seemingly fight-ending choke. Rodriguez lowers himself back down into the guard, and he gathers his thoughts as Osbourne hacks at him with elbows from his back. Osbourne continues to slash from his back, and Rodriguez has his thoughts about him and he delivers some mean ground-and-pound back. Rodriguez slams home a few elbows that stun Osbourne, and Osbourne angrily swings back at him from the bottom. A few wide-arcing hammerfists sting Rodriguez again, making Rodriguez lower himself back down instead of sitting up to attack again. Osbourne turns to his side and closes his guard, and he absorbs a few ground strikes from his opponent. Rodriguez jams down several punches and elbows to stay busy and perhaps stave off a 10-8 score, and he maintains this position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne
Round 2
Osbourne is ready to trade when the fight resumes on the feet in Round 2, and he quickly blocks a head kick to counter with a pair of punches. Osbourne goes up with a kick, and he fights off a takedown attempt by hooking up a power guillotine choke. Rodriguez takes Osbourne off his seat and wrenches his neck out of the submission, and as Osbourne scrambles, Rodriguez takes his back and gets a hook in. Rodriguez sits up and connects with a number of left hands while hanging on from on top, and Osbourne is stuck on one knee before getting lowered down and flattened out. Rodriguez sits up in full mount and blasts Osbourne in the face with unrelenting elbows. Tognoni asks Osbourne to fight back, and Osbourne bucks and twists before exploding to turn Rodriguez to his side. Rodriguez rides him like a bucking bronco, and he reclaims full mount after a tense exchange. Osbourne sits up, but he does not turn, so Rodriguez happily takes his back and sets up a face crank. “Lazy Boy” sets up the body triangle and elbows Osbourne on the side of the head from a funny angle until he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The submission is on the jaw, and Osbourne rides it out and sits up again. Rodriguez hits him in the back of the head and cranks his face again. Rodriguez is warned for eye gouging, and he reclaims his position to get to mount thanks to his body triangle. Osbourne turns to break up the body triangle, but the hooks keep him stuck in position until the Mexican secures it again. Osbourne stomps and pushes off the mat to explode, but without spinning, he remains trapped in a dominant position. Osbourne finally twists with all his might with 20 seconds to spare, and he drills Rodriguez with a number of long, meaningful punches that bounce Rodriguez’ head off the mat. Time expires, and both fighters are fatigued but still have five minutes to go.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The exhausted fighters try to bump fists, but they miss and shrug it off. Rodriguez level changes into a huge overhand left, and Osbourne springs away to defend against a takedown try. Rodriguez blocks a head kick and shoots for another takedown, and Osbourne sprawls it effectively and digs a kick to the ribs. Rodriguez whiffs on a home run punch, and his leg is tenderized a few times with kicks. Rodriguez is warned for outstretched fingers, and Osbourne snaps out a handful of jabs. Osbourne clicks a short right hand off the jaw, and Rodriguez has to hang on to not lose his footing. Osbourne fires a jab out, and Rodriguez tags him with an overhand right as “The Jamaican Sensation” acknowledges the blow. Osbourne dodges a pair of spinning wheel kicks, and he jabs Rodriguez up. Rodriguez loads up on haymakers, and he overswings his way into a double-leg attempt coming his way. Rodriguez stops the takedown and make them reset. Osbourne clinches his foe up, but he cannot hold him there as they back off. They trade left hooks, and Osbourne blinks it out and shoots for a double. Rodriguez latches onto the kimura immediately to sweep his man, but Osbourne remains heavy on top. Rodriguez returns to his knees and then feet to stand, and Osbourne backs off. Osbourne peppers his adversary with jabs, and he shoots a double when Rodriguez swings so hard he nearly falls over. Osbourne sits up after bailing on it, and Rodriguez holds on with a guillotine choke grip before aiming to take the back. Osbourne opts to falling to his back instead of giving it up, and they start trading with offense on both sides. Rodriguez lands several strikes, and Osbourne whips elbows back at him. The wild match comes to a close, and the judges will have their hands full with this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)
The Official Result
Ronaldo Rodriguez def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
Angelo picks Ronaldo Rodríguez but advises against betting. He notes Ronaldo has multiple paths to victory (striking, ground) but his takedowns are not great, while Osbourne is a dangerous striker who has only lost due to wrestling, not striking. Angelo warns against the narrative that Osbourne is a free bet, as he is a good striker. He picks Ronaldo but stays away from betting.
Big Brady initially had concerns about Rodríguez after his first round against Bonder, but he favors Rodríguez's durability and heart over Osbourne's questionable durability. He predicts Rodríguez will lose the first round but break Osbourne in the second via submission.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, citing Osbourne's wrestling background being more wrestling than jiu-jitsu, and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can reverse positions. He notes Osbourne has lost a step and is too slow and hitable. He also mentions Rodríguez's youth and speed at 125 pounds.
Daniel picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, calling Ode' Osbourne a 'busted prospect' who hasn't improved and struggles with weight cuts. He notes Rodríguez's durability, faster hands, and scrambling ability, and believes Rodríguez will win despite being green. He expects to fade Rodríguez later but not this fight.
Jeff Fox picks Ronaldo Rodríguez because he is ascending and much younger, while Ode' Osbourne is on the way down. He notes Osbourne's wrestling background hasn't played out well recently and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can handle Osbourne's takedowns. He also mentions Rodríguez's speed and athleticism at flyweight.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Rodriguez is a very solid fighter who will cause Osborne a lot of trouble. Osborne may have early success with takedowns and control time, but Rodriguez will provide resistance and pressure Osborne on the feet, eventually finding a finish in the second round, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Ronaldo Rodríguez. He notes Osbourne has been beaten too many times and has been submitted in his last two fights. Rodríguez is a consistent finisher with submissions, and Osbourne has been put away by submission recently. He also mentions Rodríguez's win over Dennis Bondar and that Osbourne lost to Charles Johnson (though he thought Johnson won).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 21 of 35 | 60% | 18 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 21 of 35 | 60% | 18 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-180), Osbourne (+150)
Round 1
Two flyweight finishers meet in hopes of advancing in the wide-open division, where three wins can get you a title shot these days. Filho (15-3, 1-1 UFC) has earned all but one of his career victories via stoppage, while Osbourne’s (12-6, 1 NC; 4-4 UFC) 75% finish rate is nothing to sneeze at either. Referee Herb Dean may have his hands full for as long as this lasts. It begins with a glove touch, and Filho is quick to move right to the middle of the cage. Filho goes wide with a low kick, and has a front kick parried. Osbourne comes back at him with a front kick, and he darts away when Filho sprints with a body kick. Filho slams a low kick home, and he comes up short with a left hook. Filho eats a punch coming in for a takedown, and he flips Osbourne over with a sweep to put Osbourne down on the ground. Osbourne turns to his side, and he absorbs a bunch of right hands before giving up his back. Filho gets one hook in as he searches for a rear-naked choke, and Osbourne sits up to defend the submission. Filho sneaks in several undercuts beneath the armpit to fluster Osbourne, and he stifles “The Jamaican Sensation” before climbing on top of him again. Osbourne defends to not let Filho get both hooks in, but Filho ultimately flattens him out with sheer horsepower. Filho wrenches on with a neck crank that is all power, and Osbourne grits it out and turns to put his back on the floor. Filho leans down while hooking up an arm-triangle choke, and when this fails, he sits up and tugs on the fence before opening up with ground-and-pound. Filho rains down a barrage of punches, and Osbourne defends against several strikes but not all of them.
As Filho’s punches do damage, he opens up an opportunity to get the rear-naked choke he has wanted all this time. “Pastor” locks down the submission and forces Osbourne to confess with a tap.
When Dean splits them up, Filho scurries to his corner, where he grabs his bible and walks around the cage pointing at it.
The Official Result
Jafel Filho def. Ode Osbourne R1 4:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.
Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.
Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.
The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.
Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.
The Guru picks Jafel Filho, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Filho's submission win over Daniel Barez while concussed, and his near-submission of Muhammad Mokaev. He dismisses Osbourne's wins as against low-level opponents like Jerome Rivera and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and notes Osbourne is 32 and not a young prospect. He expects Filho to find a submission in round one or two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-185), Osbourne (+154)
Round 1
Gary Copeland will be the third man in the cage for this flyweight affair. They touch gloves and Almabaev opens with a low kick right away. Almabaev stays on the outside and attacks with an inside leg kick. Almabaev steps in and connects with an overhand right. Osborne shakes it off and looks for openings to attack. Almavaev loads up for another overhand right and shoots for a single leg takedown, planting Osbourne on his seat in the center of the cage. Almabaev pushes Osbourne to his back and settles into his opponent’s full guard. Almabaev works to create space for ground-and-pound, landing the occasional punch or elbow. Osbourne works his legs up and briefly threatens with a triangle before absorbing a solid left hand. Almabaev is content to work inside guard while methodically landing punches with either hand. Osbourne brings his leg up again, but Almabaev clears the legs and passes to side control. Almabaev lands an elbow that Osbourne doesn’t like, and he transitions to a modified guillotine choke. Osbourne survives until the horn. It's noteworthy that Almabaev is bleeding, presumably from an elbow Osbourne landed from his back.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
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Round 2
Almabaev throws a head kick before shooting for a takedown. Osbourne does a good job using the fence to remain upright before separating from the clinch. Almabaev is throwing big strikes: a head kick, an overhand right and then a spinning kick, which is followed by a failed double leg. Almabaev goes for a couple low kicks, then gets deep on a body lock and trips Osbourne to the canvas. Almabaev works his way to Osbourne’s back. Osbourne gets to a knee before his foe jumps on his back and pulls him down with a body triangle in place. Almabaev lands some punches while hunting for the rear-naked choke. Osbourne briefly has wrist control before
Almabaev deftly slides his right arm around his opponent’s jaw. The choke isn’t completely under Osbourne’s neck, but the squeeze is tight.
Osbourne has no choice but to tap after a few seconds of resistance.
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Ode Osbourne via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 3:11
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 48 of 154 | 31% | 50 of 157 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 60 of 127 | 47% | 74 of 147 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 24 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 48 of 154 | 31% | 17 of 110 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 29 | 45 of 150 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 60 of 127 | 47% | 28 of 78 | 10 of 24 | 22 of 25 | 42 of 101 | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 23 of 62 | 37% | 5 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 21 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 21 of 38 | 55% | 6 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 11 of 48 | 22% | 4 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 16 of 39 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 14 of 44 | 31% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 23 of 50 | 46% | 10 of 27 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 11 | 15 of 38 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-170), Osbourne (+145)
Round 1
Jumping up on late notice to compete on the card, Osbourne (11-5, 1 NC; 3-3 UFC) will look to lift his UFC record above .500 when he faces Johnson (13-3, 2-1 UFC). Due to this coming together within a few weeks of the event, what was once a flyweight affair between Johnson and Denys Bondar will now take place at 130 pounds. This catchweight contest will receive oversight by referee Kerry Hatley, and despite being happy to be fighting after all, they elect not to touch gloves. They two meet in the middle but are fairly cautious to engage, with a few kicks thrown by either man in the first 30-second stretch. Osbourne works on Johnson’s lead wheel with a few calf kicks, and he steps forward with a one-two to knock “InnerG” back. Johnson tries to grab the low leg when Osbourne whips it at his lead leg, but this fails and he eats a few powerful leg kicks. Johnson switches stances to take some of the burden off the kicking damage, and he flicks a front kick at his man that gets him thrown to the floor. Osbourne chops at his foe a few more times, and he gest one off on the inside that draws a physical reaction out of Johnson. Johnson paws out a few jabs, and he has a head kick blocked. Osbourne turns his hips into an inside low kick, and Johnson changes stances after absorbing that flush. Osbourne looks to let his hands go, and Johnson weaves out of the way. The two hand-fight in front of one another, and Osbourne manages to get off a jab and check a kick. When Johnson throws one, Osbourne throws two or three back. Osbourne is making Johnson flinch every time, and Johnson starts talking to him as he switches stances taking these unblocked kicks. Osbourne catches a dipping Johnson with an uppercut, and he leans back when getting countered. Johnson bears down on his opponent with a few punches, and Osbourne catches his leg and pushes him back. Johnson leaps in the air and ends up landing a right hand instead of the flying knee while midair, and when he lands, he grabs “The Jamaican Sensation” and throws him down to the canvas with emphasis. Osbourne works his way back up quickly against the fence, and Johnson knees him several times on the way up before Osbourne breaks the grip and escapes. Osbourne scores a one-two, Johnson uses head movement to dodge the worst of the blows, and he has a low kick caught when responding. Both men land shots at the bell, and they hug it out when landing shots after it concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 2
The two measure one another in the early going of Round 2, pawing at one another with little on their strikes. Johnson powers forward in an attempt for a possible takedown, only to get thwarted. When he backs off, Johnson pushes off with a front kick that slams square into the cup. Osbourne goes down in a heap, writhing in pain as Hatley stops the clock to give him five minutes to recover – and Osbourne might need it. Johnson goes to his corner to have a seat, having apologized for the foul. Hatley informs him to be careful, and Johnson is not defiant and knows what happened. Osbourne crawls towards the commentary team and tells color commentator Michael Bisping that this was one of the worst groin shots he’s ever taken. Osbourne pulls himself up to his feet after 4:15 of recovery time, and he bounces and tries to get his wind back as he is still compromised. Osbourne signals that he is good to go with just 15 seconds left of the five-minute window, and they get right back to fighting. Osbourne gets back to kicking at the lead leg, and he turns to plant a side kick on the knee to hyperextend it. Johnson grimaces, and Osbourne attacks the same knee with the same kick to great success. Johnson looks to step in with an elbow, and he pushes off the chest with a side kick. Johnson dips forward to strike, and Osbourne intercepts him with two punches and catches a high kick that flies at him. Osbourne lets it go and releases a heavy body kick, and he strafes on the outside. Johnson gets up close and ties up his man, belting him with a clean elbow on the inside before pushing him up to the wall. Johnson considers a trip or level change, and Osbourne turns him around and drops down for a single of his own. Johnson stands him up and knees him a few times, as they jockey for position on the cage. Osbourne redoubles his effort for a single, and when he leans low, Johnson swirls around and takes his back standing up. Johnson slides down to the ground and ends up on his back, with his legs up high fishing for a triangle choke or some submission from that angle. A wild scramble leads to Osbourne tripping his foe back to the mat, and they both jump back up and resume striking. An elbow or two from Johnson up close opened up a cut on Osbourne’s face, and he pays it no mind. They throw caution to the wind in the waning seconds of the round, throwing punches and high kicks before Osbourne shoots for a takedown at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Round 3
Before the last round begins, the two fighters touch gloves. When they begin, it is Johnson pushing the accelerator with several kicks low and high. Osbourne catches one such front kick and is unsuccessful to throw Johnson to the floor. Johnson pulls it back and fires off a high kick, slipping and landing on the canvas. Osbourne dives on top, but cannot gain dominant position before Johnson climbs back to his feet. The two clinch up as Johnson targets knees to the body, and Osbourne drops down for a level change but opts for a possible body lock to trip. “InnerG” protects himself and pushes them out to the middle of the cage, and he works on Osbourne’s lead leg. Johnson continues to land knees until a responsive knee from Osbourne breaks them apart. Johnson steps forward with a straight left hand, and he ducks to his side. Osbourne times a head kick that very nearly takes him out, but Johnson moves just enough to take the full sting out of it. Johnson jabs his way in, frustrating Osbourne until Osbourne shoots for a naked takedown. Johnson snatches up a guillotine choke on the way down, and he lets it go so that he can muscle his way back to his feet. Osbourne gets one leg around the side to try to take the back standing, but there is nothing to it as Johnson pushes off with 90 seconds to spare. A spent Johnson meanders forward, hands down, taking punches until Osbourne grabs him and puts him on the mat. Johnson’s guillotine defensive reaction is less strong this time, and he lets it go so that he can wall-walk rather than spend time on his seat. Osbourne steps back to knee the body and comes up short with a left hand, and he ducks a punch to pursue a takedown. Johnson sprawls and jumps around to take the back, but Osbourne just stands back up. They both stand up, and decide it’s time to empty their gas tanks with one final slugfest. They both smack one another around, but ultimately reach the final bell. Judges could have their hands full with this one, depending on how the last two close rounds were scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)
The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Charles Johnson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.
Zane picks Johnson, noting that Johnson has added an aggressive mindset to his already solid technical skills. He believes Johnson will knock Osbourne out, as Osbourne is not very durable and tends to get cracked when his gambles don't pay off. He also notes that Johnson is a big flyweight who is tough to hit clean and has never been knocked out.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
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