Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
Career Averages - Ode' Osbourne
Asu Almabayev
Ode' Osbourne
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 77 of 109 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 11:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 3:52 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 29 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jose Johnson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Johnson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.
Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.
Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.
Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.
Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.
Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Ode' Osbourne - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 48 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 62 of 117 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 19 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Alibi Idiris | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 24 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 32 of 90 | 35% | 21 of 74 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 84 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 30 of 75 | 40% | 22 of 58 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 22 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 12 of 30 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 14 of 33 | 42% | 7 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 7 of 23 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 10 of 31 | 32% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alibi Idiris | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.
Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.
Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.
Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.
James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.
Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.
Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.
Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 26 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 17 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 35 of 74 | 47% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 17 of 32 | 53% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 11 of 25 | 44% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.
Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.
Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.
The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.
Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 26 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 21 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 18 of 43 | 41% | 11 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Luis Gurule | 12 of 34 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 7 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 19 | 26% | 1 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 13 of 24 | 54% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Luis Gurule | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-218), Osbourne (+180)
Round 1
His back likely against the wall in this flyweight pairing, Osbourne (12-8, 1 NC; 4-6 UFC) will try to put his three-fight skid in the past. He welcomes Factory X product Gurule (10-0, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion, with the latter working his way up the Fury FC circuit to reach the Contender Series last year. The 125ers will have referee Jason Herzog watching over the action to make sure nothing goes awry, and they elect to touch gloves first. Gurule leads off with a kid to the side, and Osbourne pays him back immediately with one. Gurule kicks low, and he darts away to the side and offers another. Osbourne kicks him in the side twice, and Gurule answers with a left hand and a high kick—both are blocked, but the sheer momentum budges him a bit. Osbourne walks Gurule down and punches him square in the face, and Gurule has to rebound off the fence to blink it out. “The Jamaican Sensation” goes after his foe with his rangy strikes, and he catches a body kick to come up with his other leg and boot Gurule in the face. They trade kicks on the outside, and Gurule ducks a punch and flips Osbourne all the way over to slam him down on his back. Gurule lands directly in side control and uses his shoulder to press down on Osbourne’s face and keep him flat on the canvas. Gurule looks for full mount, and he is bounced out of it while slashing down with an elbow. Osbourne pulls him back to half guard, and Gurule accepts this so he can elbow the Wisconsin native further. Gurule drops down some ground-and-pound, spurring Osbourne into desperately returning to his feet with 20 seconds left. Gurule drops for a single, and he lets it go to wing a left hand over the top. Gurule has a head kick bounce off the guard, and they clash with kicks at the same time to conclude the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Round 2
A fist bump leads into the action, where Gurule lets loose three kicks in rapid succession. Gurule ducks a strike to come up with a left hand, and he dances away from a one-two but is still in range for a front kick. Osbourne catches his man at the end of a right, and he times a ducking Gurule with an uppercut. The strike stops Gurule from completing the takedown, as Osbourne breaks free and jabs out a few times. Both men sting one another with long, straight punches, and Osbourne blocks a kick to drive a one-two down the pipe. When Gurule offers out a kick, Osbourne snipes him from his distance. This happens a second time, a naked kick from the unbeaten fighter is met with a concussive left hand that sends him to the floor in a heap.
Osbourne is surprised at the success of his blow, and he has to commit to finishing the fight rather than walking off. He leaps on the side of his opponent and hammers him with a number of unanswered right hands. As the punches continue to mount, Herzog says enough is enough and calls a halt to the match.
Just like that, the upset has been completed, while Gurule has been firmly ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten. Meanwhile, Osbourne can rest a little easier with that win on his belt, having put Gurule down with what he called a “Dewey Cooper special.”
The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Luis Gurule R2 1:54 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo acknowledges Ode' Osbourne is better than his recent record and nearly won his last fight, but he thinks Osbourne may be dejected after three losses and that his grappling gaps remain. He picks Luis Gurule due to his pressure, power, and grappling, but warns that undefeated UFC debuts often lose and advises against betting. He calls it a trap fight where Osbourne could win out of nowhere.
Big Brady picks Luis Gurule despite not being impressed with him. He notes Ode' Osbourne has durability and cardio issues, often fading after the first round. He expects Gurule's solid cardio and durability to take over as the fight progresses, leading to a decision win.
Gurule is making his UFC debut with a 10-0 record and is expected to put on a pace and pressure that Osbourne cannot keep up with, leading to a third-round stoppage.
The Guru picks Luis Gurule, noting his undefeated record and grindy style. He criticizes Ode' Osbourne for losing to Ronaldo Rodriguez and having multiple submission losses. He expects a close decision but thinks the prospect will get the nod over Osbourne, who he considers not good enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 35 of 69 | 50% | 68 of 117 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 9:14 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 55 of 93 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 4:14 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 1 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 29 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo Rodríguez | 35 of 69 | 50% | 29 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 38 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 37 of 68 | 54% | 28 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 | |
| 2 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 19 of 24 | 79% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 22 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | 10 of 31 | 32% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ronaldo Rodríguez but advises against betting. He notes Ronaldo has multiple paths to victory (striking, ground) but his takedowns are not great, while Osbourne is a dangerous striker who has only lost due to wrestling, not striking. Angelo warns against the narrative that Osbourne is a free bet, as he is a good striker. He picks Ronaldo but stays away from betting.
Big Brady initially had concerns about Rodríguez after his first round against Bonder, but he favors Rodríguez's durability and heart over Osbourne's questionable durability. He predicts Rodríguez will lose the first round but break Osbourne in the second via submission.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, citing Osbourne's wrestling background being more wrestling than jiu-jitsu, and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can reverse positions. He notes Osbourne has lost a step and is too slow and hitable. He also mentions Rodríguez's youth and speed at 125 pounds.
Daniel picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, calling Ode' Osbourne a 'busted prospect' who hasn't improved and struggles with weight cuts. He notes Rodríguez's durability, faster hands, and scrambling ability, and believes Rodríguez will win despite being green. He expects to fade Rodríguez later but not this fight.
Jeff Fox picks Ronaldo Rodríguez because he is ascending and much younger, while Ode' Osbourne is on the way down. He notes Osbourne's wrestling background hasn't played out well recently and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can handle Osbourne's takedowns. He also mentions Rodríguez's speed and athleticism at flyweight.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Rodriguez is a very solid fighter who will cause Osborne a lot of trouble. Osborne may have early success with takedowns and control time, but Rodriguez will provide resistance and pressure Osborne on the feet, eventually finding a finish in the second round, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Ronaldo Rodríguez. He notes Osbourne has been beaten too many times and has been submitted in his last two fights. Rodríguez is a consistent finisher with submissions, and Osbourne has been put away by submission recently. He also mentions Rodríguez's win over Dennis Bondar and that Osbourne lost to Charles Johnson (though he thought Johnson won).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 43 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 21 of 35 | 60% | 18 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 21 of 35 | 60% | 18 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.
Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.
Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.
The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.
Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.
The Guru picks Jafel Filho, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Filho's submission win over Daniel Barez while concussed, and his near-submission of Muhammad Mokaev. He dismisses Osbourne's wins as against low-level opponents like Jerome Rivera and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and notes Osbourne is 32 and not a young prospect. He expects Filho to find a submission in round one or two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 48 of 154 | 31% | 50 of 157 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 60 of 127 | 47% | 74 of 147 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 24 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ode' Osbourne | 48 of 154 | 31% | 17 of 110 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 29 | 45 of 150 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 60 of 127 | 47% | 28 of 78 | 10 of 24 | 22 of 25 | 42 of 101 | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ode' Osbourne | 23 of 62 | 37% | 5 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 21 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 21 of 38 | 55% | 6 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ode' Osbourne | 11 of 48 | 22% | 4 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 16 of 39 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ode' Osbourne | 14 of 44 | 31% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 23 of 50 | 46% | 10 of 27 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 11 | 15 of 38 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.
Zane picks Johnson, noting that Johnson has added an aggressive mindset to his already solid technical skills. He believes Johnson will knock Osbourne out, as Osbourne is not very durable and tends to get cracked when his gambles don't pay off. He also notes that Johnson is a big flyweight who is tough to hit clean and has never been knocked out.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
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