Career Averages - Cody Durden
Career Averages - Jake Hadley
Cody Durden
Jake Hadley
Cody Durden - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 50 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:08 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 91 of 136 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 36 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Jafel Filho | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Jafel Filho | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 34 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jafel Filho | 23 of 63 | 36% | 10 of 44 | 7 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 54 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 34 of 72 | 47% | 21 of 54 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jafel Filho | 3 of 12 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 11 of 23 | 47% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Jafel Filho | 8 of 28 | 28% | 2 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 15 of 34 | 44% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jafel Filho | 12 of 23 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 8 of 15 | 53% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-600); Durden (+450)
Round 1
A late replacement up a weight class, Durden (17-10-1, 6-8-1 UFC) hopes that he can snap a four-fight skid and exorcise his demons against “Pastor” Filho (17-4, 3-2 UFC). The Brazilian celebrates all but one of his pro wins by stoppage, so the Georgia native will need to be on his best behavior for the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things official as the two men up at bantamweight throw down. They elect to bump clap hands first.
Despite their seemingly intense beginning, no one throws a strike anywhere close to their intended target for nearly 30 seconds. Filho lazily pushes out a front kick, allowing Durden to respond with an overhand right. Durden rushes forward to tackle Filho to the mat, surprising the Brazilian and forcing him to respond with submission attempts. Durden defends the setups, but in the process, he is turned around with Filho pursuing his own level change. Both men get in a 50-50 position with their arms hooked, but it is Filho who is the quicker man as he stands up and wraps his right arm around Durden’s chest like a malicious seat belt.
Filho also slips his legs around Durden’s to try to disrupt his base, and like a python slowly swallowing a goat, he inch-by-inch separates Durden from his balance to put him down. Filho tries to set something up on top, but the frantic Durden bursts out of the position to get back upright. Filho is quick to chase after him with punch combinations, his front kick at the end of one scoring well. Filho changes stances to time a check of a kick he sees coming, and Durden marches him down and slings him to the mat with a trip. When Durden sits up to drop down strikes, Filho off his back looks for a kneebar. Durden turns out of it to take Filho’s back when they stand, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
Durden races out of his corner swinging, hurling big punches while Filho makes a funny face and slides to the side. Durden walks through a thudding calf kick to further crowd the Brazilian, and his subsequent kick is caught. Filho does not take advantage of this, instead lobbing a right left hand upstairs. Durden fires back with his own hook, and his low kick makes Filho recoil it to the side to take some of the sting out of it. Durden keeps pressuring his foe, and his inside leg kick scores a few more times. Filho tries for a step-in knee, and he gets his jaw jacked with a right hand. Durden catches him with a right hand and trips Filho up. Filho hits his back and offers up an upkick, using the moment of impact to explode back to his feet. Durden nonetheless tackles him to the ground, pulling Filho away from the cage as Filho grabs it, and he backs off to find another angle in.
Durden winds up an axe kick, smashing his heel directly into Filho’s cup. He tries to keep attacking, but Herzog remarks that he just kicked him square in the groin and that he needs to back off. After a short recovery time, Filho is good to go, and he starts to apply pressure. He dings Durden with a right hand as he crowds him to initiate in a clinch and possible body lock to throw, but Durden sees it coming and pushes him back. Filho parries a big right hand, but the second from Durden gets through. Filho plods forward, chasing after the American throwing big hands. Durden is elusive enough to evade the worst of what comes his way, only for Filho to grab hold of him and throw him down like too many bags of groceries, because who needs three trips to the car when you can bring them all in with one overloaded trip, as cans and bottles fall out of the bags while one rips, and you bang into furniture and hope you brought it all inside. Check the eggs before putting them in the fridge first. Filho attacks mightily on top, forcing Durden to turn over so he can hunt for a choke. Before he gets it, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Round 3
There is a half-hearted hug between the two athletes, and Filho is energized coming out of his corner but does not go wild. Instead, Durden methodically works his way in, using his overhand right to close the distance. Filho ducks in to tie the Georgia native up, and after he tries to manipulate the action, he slashes out with an elbow and a heavy right. Durden breaks off and hunts for a front choke, letting it go to pursue a takedown, ultimate tripping Filho but not getting him down. Both men pop back up, some damage showing under Filho’s right eye, and Durden completes a trip and throw to put the Brazilian on the mat.
Durden looks for an off-angle choke in hopes of otherwise controlling Filho, and the Brazilian’s first roll to escape fails. Filho escapes the grappling exchange but appears totally wiped, slowly trying to stand up. Durden targets a soccer kick square in the ribs, and “Pastor” topples to his back. Durden leaps down to half guard, where he changing his position to take the back. With a single hook in, Durden grabs hold of a neck crank and turns Filho’s head to the left. Filho grits it out but is stuck, with Durden screaming at him or anyone listening while he clubs Filho on the sides of the head. The odd match ends with Durden pumped up and yelling. It may all come down to the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.
The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.
James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.
Zane picks Filho confidently, noting that Durden has lost four in a row and six of his last seven, and is getting crushed in most losses. He points out that Durden's confidence is gone after being knocked out, and that Filho is a strong submission artist with good top control. Zane also mentions that Filho is moving up from flyweight, which should make him even stronger.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 54 of 69 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 3 | 4:50 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 43 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 6:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 21 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:37 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 | |
| 3 | Cody Durden | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 25 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:22 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 2:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 8 of 21 | 38% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 25 of 42 | 59% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 9 of 13 | 69% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 12 of 22 | 54% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 3 | Cody Durden | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tumendemberel (-148), Durden (+124)
Round 1
What should be a grappler’s delight will treat fans as flyweights Durden (17-9-1, 6-7-1 UFC) and Tumendemberel (9-1, 0-1 UFC) ply their trade against one another. The former has dropped three straight, while the latter’s “Art of Knockout” nickname may be a little off-kilter as the Mongolian celebrates most of his victories via tapout. Regardless of funky, multi-syllabic, the two will meet under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, and they race towards one another without a touch of gloves to get things started.
Durden peels back right before crashing into his opponent, and they offer low kicks at one another before Durden shoots for a double-leg entry. Tumendemberel defends by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and both fighters are fresh and dry as a bone. Tumendemberel adjusts his grip to grab hold from a different angle, hanging the choke higher up but not locking it down entirely. Durden slithers his neck out of danger and looks to get off some ground strikes, and it takes mere seconds before Tumendemberel scrambles. Tumendemberel is able to stand, and Durden takes his back from one side and has his gloves grabbed while doing so. Herzog warns the Mongolian of the foul, and Tumendemberel leans to put Durden against the cage behind him to take the weight off his back. Tumendemberel shakes his foe off, and the two reset. Both land a single leg kick before Durden shoots, and once more Tumendemberel attacks a guillotine.
Durden twists all the way around to free his neck far easier this time, and he forces them to stand so he can take Tumendemberel down in a way he wishes. The house lights flicker on and off during the match, and Durden looks to Herzog confused while also stifling a takedown shot. Durden knees a bent-over Tumendemberel in the face, and Tumendemberel lifts him off the ground and slams him down on his back. Durden hits the ground and sets up an armbar, snatching hold of Tumendemberel’s right limb but failing to grip it fully. Tumendemberel wriggles out and retreats, and Durden pops back up. Tumendemberel swings for a big right hand, and Durden shoots for a counter takedown. Tumendemberel flips Durden to his back and elbows him in the face a few times, but Durden is still pressing for the takedown. When Durden flips his foe over, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Round 2
Herzog issues Tumendemberel a stern warning to not strike Durden in the back of the head between rounds, and Tumendemberel acknowledges this. They start off the second round with Tumendemberel whipping low kicks, and his long punches keep Durden from recklessly shooting…for a time. Durden does go after a takedown, and he gets tossed to his back and attacks a leglock. Tumendemberel sits down to take the danger out of the ankle/heel lock, and he drills Durden in the side of the head until he legs it go. Tumendemberel grabs hold of Durden’s back and assumes a body triangle, and Durden still looks to turn and break out of it. Durden manages to put Tumendemberel on his back despite a brief body lock, and the Mongolian is once more warned for hooking his fingers inside of Durden’s gloves. The ensuing scramble results in Tumendemberel flipping Durden over, where he holds on with a guillotine choke from his back.
This allows a potential Von Preux submission, but Durden smiles when it is applied and his smiles disappears when he gets belted in the face by Tumendemberel’s free right hand. Herzog is on top of these two as there are possible fence grabs, illegal upkicks and other malfeasance going on, and the moment Durden gets up, Tumendemberel hits a clean tackling double to put the American back down. Tumendemberel smothers while in top control grinding his elbow on his foe’s face while Durden motions to Herzog for some intervention. Tumendemberel drills Durden hard in the back of the head, and Herzog calls for him to aim for the ear. Durden gets to his knees and stands, where he rushes after Tumendemberel and nails him with a one-two. When Durden keeps throwing, time expires, and Tumendemberel punches him clearly after the bell. What are rules?
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 3
Durden opens up with a huge right hand, and Tumendemberel counters him by tackling him to the floor. Durden turns the corner to take the back of the Mongolian, who manages to shimmy and slowly buck Durden off of him. Tumendemberel thumps Durden on the chin with a few more elbows, and Durden returns to a knee in hopes of standing. When Durden stands back up, Tumendemberel mat returns him and takes his back to lock up a body triangle. Tumendemberel starts fishing for a rear-naked choke before getting position, and he nails Durden in the back of the head again. Durden slumps over and finds himself in RNC danger, with Tumendemberel’s arm across his face. Durden hand-fights to defend the submission, and he breaks the grip around his face and abdomen to reverse “Art of Knockout.”
Durden drops down a single right hand and positions himself to attack an arm-triangle choke, and he is in half guard with Tumendemberel answering the proverbial telephone to defend the submission. Durden lays flat on top before jumping to the other side, and Tumendemberel rolls to his knees to break out of it. Durden clings to his man from the back, and Tumendemberel bumps and shakes but Durden has his toes hooked in the cage to prevent him from getting rolled off. Durden hangs on for dear life, but he is inch-by-inch sliding off. Tumendemberel finds the moment to free himself and he lashes out with a hard right hand, all while planting Durden flat on his back. Tumendemberel leans his shoulder down to pressure for a possible arm-triangle, and he stands up and finds himself in Hail Mary heel hook danger. Tumendemberel yanks his limb free and the bell sounds, but he decides he is not done fighting and tries to boot Durden in the face with a soccer kick after the bell. Herzog shoulder-checks the Mongolian to his back, but nothing else happens.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (30-27 Tumendemberel)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)
The Official Result
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo says Cody Durden used to be a dog but is now a shell of himself, while Nyamjargal is a powerful striker who can be hit but is durable. He notes that Carlos Hernandez took down Nyamjargal four times but got dropped, and Carlos is more durable than Cody. He picks Nyamjargal to win.
Big Brady picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. He acknowledges Durden is likely more skilled but worries about his durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. Durden has been finished five times by submission and two by KO, and his chin appears to be fading. Tumendemberel has good front chokes and opportunistic submissions. Brady predicts Durden will look good early, get hurt, shoot for a takedown, and get submitted in the second round.
Cody picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's cardio issues and hittability. He notes that Tumendemberel only needs to land one shot. He expects a late knockout.
Connor picks Durden because he believes Durden's relentless aggression will overwhelm Tumendemberel, who lacks a clean answer for pressure. He notes that Tumendemberel is a dangerous puncher but has been taken down easily in the past. Durden's jab and combination punching should allow him to initiate exchanges effectively.
Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, acknowledging bias but providing reasoning. He believes Durden's experience against higher-level competition will be key, and that Durden will avoid getting caught early. Vreeland notes that Durden's career is on the line and expects him to give a veteran lesson.
James picks Cody Durden as an underdog, believing the fight is close to 50/50 and Durden is the value side. He notes Durden's superior competition and skills, but acknowledges his poor chin and tendency to get hurt. James thinks Durden can dominate if he avoids getting knocked out, but admits it's a tough call due to Durden's durability issues.
Tumendemberel has shown improved defensive grappling and durability. He can stop Durden's wrestling and threaten with submissions or power shots. Durden's recent losses show his ceiling. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing as both have finishing ability.
Paul picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Tumendemberel's durability and power. He expects to bet live after Durden wins the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, despite a personal beef. He believes Durden's grappling and pressure will be too much for Tumendemberel, who lacks experience. He expects Durden to win by decision, noting his toughness and volume.
Zane agrees with Durden, though he expresses disdain for Durden's personality. He notes that Tumendemberel's ideas stop at one punch and that Durden can deal with that. He acknowledges the possibility of Tumendemberel landing a big shot or a submission, but thinks Durden's pressure will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Nascimento | 0 | 52 of 115 | 45% | 52 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 57 of 128 | 44% | 57 of 128 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allan Nascimento | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Allan Nascimento | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Nascimento | 52 of 115 | 45% | 19 of 69 | 7 of 17 | 26 of 29 | 51 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 57 of 128 | 44% | 47 of 112 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 57 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allan Nascimento | 26 of 58 | 44% | 7 of 31 | 3 of 9 | 16 of 18 | 25 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 36 of 73 | 49% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Allan Nascimento | 26 of 57 | 45% | 12 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 21 of 55 | 38% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)
Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.
The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.
Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.
Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.
Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.
The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.
Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 30 of 79 | 37% | 52 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 12 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 47 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 9 of 41 | 21% | 6 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jose Ochoa | 30 of 79 | 37% | 18 of 42 | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jose Ochoa | 25 of 73 | 34% | 13 of 36 | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 22 of 68 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Durden (+150)
Round 1
Trying to break out of a bit of a rough patch, having lost three of four, Durden (17-7-1, 6-5-1 UFC) needs a win bad and wants it even more because this match takes place at home. A product of American Top Team Atlanta, he will welcome wild-swinging Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) to the ATL. When the dust settles between these two flyweights, one will return to the win column—barring something unexpected. Referee Kevin MacDonald will be on top of the action. The two combatants bump fists, and Ochoa comes out erratically with bouncing, jittery movement and kicks. Ochoa stabs the body with his toes extended, and he does this two more times before Durden comes back at him with a left hand. Ochoa continues working the body with the same move, and he spins with an elbow on the counter try from Durden. Durden shakes it off and is ready to trade, but it is Ochoa who lands in bunches. Ochoa’s movement allows him to avoid the worst that Durden tosses at him, while keeping a solid range with his legs outstretched constantly. Durden latches onto Ochoa’s right leg in pursuit of a single, wrangling the younger man to the mat and lacing his hooks around them for a moment. Durden slithers to the side in an attempt to take the back, but Ochoa knows this is coming and turns himself around while standing up. Durden knees his way out of the clinch, and Ochoa thanks him for this by kicking him in the fast-reddening lead leg. Ochoa slips a punch to connect with three, with Durden’s chin holding up but taking damage early. Ochoa tags the Georgian with a fast combination, and he grabs hold of a guillotine when Durden shoots and knees him to break up the shot. Ochoa goes to the body with a left, and he spams two head kick from the same leg and chains punches and another kick behind it. Durden tries to bully him back, only to absorbs an elbow and a mean left hand. Ochoa is a meat grinder, marching Durden down and putting him through his paces. Durden takes several more blows on the chin, and in response he unloads a right hand from the depths that stuns Ochoa to his core. This allows Durden to easily change levels and take Ochoa down, but Ochoa hits his back and starts firing off upkicks aplenty. Durden lowers himself down through the flailing legs, dropping down a few standing-and-ground punches. As soon as Ochoa locks up a triangle choke, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Round 2
The second round kicks off with Durden grinning like a banshee. As he moves to the center of the cage, Ochoa meets him there. Durden reaches out with a right hand to initiate an exchange, and the younger fighter dips back and clubs him with an uppercut that shakes the Covington, Georgia, native up badly. As Durden wobbles back to put the fence behind him, Ochoa just misses with a flying switch kick aimed at his mug.
The moment he plants his feet, Ochoa dodges a left hook and unloads a blistering short left hand that jacks Durden in the jaw and sends him careening to the floor. While MacDonald is sprinting to the fighters to wave things off, Ochoa hammers the local with two or three more fierce right hands.
MacDonald gets in to stop the fight, and Durden’s eyes are wide and rolling around in his noggin. Ochoa walks off and celebrates, while Durden looks around confusedly and briefly protests but needs to be helped back to his feet, further justifying the stoppage. Ochoa earns his first UFC victory in big way, putting down a gritty grappler like Durden in the latter’s home territory.
The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden R2 0:11 via KO (Punches)
Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.
Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.
The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 0 | 70 of 217 | 32% | 74 of 223 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 165 of 304 | 54% | 184 of 323 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 18 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 30 of 49 | 61% | 46 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 0 | 27 of 99 | 27% | 27 of 100 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 72 of 136 | 52% | 73 of 137 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 0 | 29 of 85 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 65 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 70 of 217 | 32% | 60 of 203 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 70 of 217 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 165 of 304 | 54% | 131 of 262 | 22 of 27 | 12 of 15 | 144 of 279 | 19 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 14 of 33 | 42% | 13 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 30 of 49 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 32 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 27 of 99 | 27% | 22 of 93 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 72 of 136 | 52% | 57 of 119 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 71 of 134 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 29 of 85 | 34% | 25 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 63 of 119 | 52% | 50 of 104 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 58 of 113 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-155), Durden (+130)
Round 1
Speed is the name of the game in this flyweight affair, as skilled grappler Durden (17-6-1, 6-4-1 UFC) will try to ply his trade against offense-first Houstonian by way of Myanmar Van (11-2, 4-1 UFC). The two 125ers looking to climb the ranks share similar stoppage rates of 71% and 73%, respectively, which is rare at this division and something referee Chris Tognoni should keep in mind when officiating this contest. Fists are bumped, and they come into close range to trade. Durden lands a low kick and comes up short on a one-two. Van connects with a hard low kick, and Durden fires back with a surprisingly effective high kick and a punch salvo. Durden punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and he gets elbows in the side of the head when trying. Durden drops all the way down to fish for Van’s ankle, and he lifts “The Fearless” up and deposits him to his seat. Van methodically works his way back to his feet with Durden pressuring and leaning on him, and he hacks with a few elbows before Durden drags him back down to the floor. Van strikes with elbows to the side of the dome, and Durden takes a moment to cover as he does not like absorbing them. Van muscles his way up to his feet, but Durden is on him like a cheap suit. Van rips the body with a right hand to break away, and he rushes forward behind his jab. Durden fires off a left hand, and the two trade blows in the pocket. Van pierces the guard with a few jabs and works the body in subsequent strikes, and he snaps the head back with a sharp uppercut. Van gets Durden’s attention, slipping an uppercut to get Durden’s attention. Van slams his shin on the front leg of his foe, and he walks square into an uppercut that Durden is spamming. As Van meanders forward, Durden stops him with a double-leg entry. Van defends with elbows until Durden switches to a single-leg takedown attempt, and Van is able to set his leg down while keeping himself upright. Durden tries to lift Van up in the air, but he settles for grinding out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
The flyweights race out of their corners to re-engage, and engage they do. Both men load up on wild strikes, and Van rocks his opponent with a flurry. Durden fires back, and he keeps Van honest but is not taking him out of the equation. Van shrugs off a head kick to do some damage with punch combos, and he sprawls to stop a takedown and clips Durden with an uppercut. Van chains his punches together, and Durden’s balance is starting to betray him as his knees wobble. Van knocks his man back with an accurate series of punches, and he drills the midsection and is ready to stop a takedown. Durden flops to his back, and Van tells him to get up. Tognoni has him stand up, and they start up throwing fire again. Durden lands, and all Van does is smile and swing back with a vengeance. Durden’s power is starting to slip due to fatigue, while Van is accurate and putting high volume that marks Durden’s face up on the nose and eyebrow. Durden overswings, and he eats a crisp overhand right for his effort. “The Fearless” fearlessly engages in a slugfest, landing first and last in exchanges. Van is not loading up, instead allowing Durden to do that so he can capitalize on the wild, lumbering swings and retaliate sharply. Van stops a takedown in its tracks so he can drive home an uppercut, and he wades away from a spinning back fist and slides in to connect with a right hand. Durden’s inaccurate left hook leads to three punches busting him in the chops. Durden keeps swinging hard, and the telegraphed strikes are either missing entirely or sliding off the target and getting rolled with. Van puts a one-two on the chin, and Durden responds with a left and a big right. Van strings together five punches in rapid succession, leaning back to dodge “Custom Made” and forward to connect cleanly. When Van eats the power strikes, he does not budge, while every other blow seems to draw a reaction out of the slowing Durden. The round ends with the two trading leather.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
A glove touch commences the final frame, and Van is immediately in striking range as he flusters Durden with movement and footwork. Durden fights behind his jab, and he puts some mustard behind a follow-up right hand. Van no-sells the strike and nails Durden with two powerful low kicks, and Durden swipes back at him with left hooks. Van goes high and then to the body and low calf, mixing things up to keep Durden guessing. Durden tries a Superman punch from up close, only fur Van to block it and knock him back a step. One-twos from both sides land on the guard, and Van clubs his foe on the temple and drops Durden to a knee. Durden signals that it was not a big deal, drawing Van into a brawl. Yan’s offense is gradually breaking Durden down, and he connects with a particularly rough left hand that makes Durden fall to his back. Durden is forced to stand back up, and he keeps his right hand covering the eye socket that might have been hurt. Van strings three punches into a knee to the liver, and Durden shells up and launches a huge right hand that goes wide. Van stifles a takedown and misses with a haymaker, only to drift back when Durden spins with a back fist. Van slips and counters his foe, and Durden wobbles but stays on his feet. A jab from Van makes Durden frown, but it does not slow him down as he hurls huge hooks anywhere he can aim them. Van walks him down and connects cleanly, knocking Durden’s mouthpiece out. Tognoni calls time during a moment to break to replace Durden’s gumshield, and the two resume their torrid brawl. Durden may be leading with his chin, but he is swinging with everything he has. Van hurts him with a few hooks, a knee and a head kick, and Durden is hanging on tight but just taking damage. Durden swings it out until the final bell, putting an end to an exciting striking affair.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)
Angelo picks Cody Durden as a dog, citing Durden's relentless pressure wrestling and cardio as key factors. He believes Durden's takedowns will frustrate Joshua Van and deplete his confidence. Angelo notes both fighters are chinny but expects Durden to focus on winning rather than brawling. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if the odds widen further.
Cody picks Van but expects a tough first round. He notes Durden's wrestling and fast starts, but thinks Van's cardio and volume will take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Van after the first round.
Connor picks Durden, though he hates to do it. He notes that Durden starts fast and pressures aggressively, which could overwhelm Van, who tends to start slow and build into fights. Connor points out that Van has been taking too much damage recently and is fighting too frequently, which raises concerns about his durability. He also mentions that Durden's pace and wrestling could be a problem for Van, who has shown vulnerability early in fights.
Daniel admits bias as Durden's friend but provides analysis: he believes Durden's well-rounded attack and ability to exploit Van's uncomfortable ranges will lead to a win. He expects Durden to mix takedowns and striking effectively.
Van successfully bounced back from his knockout loss to Charles Johnson by defeating Edgar Chairez. He will take that momentum, showcase improved takedown defense, keep the fight standing, and eventually catch Durden slipping to get a knockout victory.
Paul picks Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and fast starts. He notes Van's high fight frequency and potential wear. He thinks Durden can win the first two rounds and hold on, but acknowledges the risk.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, citing Van's tendency to get rocked on the feet and Durden's improved hands and grappling. He thinks Durden's size and takedowns will be too much for Van, and that once Durden gets a lead he is hard to catch. He predicts a 29-28 decision based on the first two rounds.
Zane also picks Durden, expressing concern for Van's health and development. He notes that Van is inexperienced and makes bad decisions under duress, and that Durden's early pressure and wrestling could exploit that. Zane points out that Van has been in wars recently and is fighting too often, which could lead to him getting knocked out or losing a decision. He believes Durden is a tough out and that Van's ceiling is higher but not yet realized.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 37 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 33 of 77 | 42% | 36 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 40 of 83 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 38 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 34 of 78 | 43% | 31 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 40 of 80 | 50% | 32 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 33 of 77 | 42% | 30 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)
Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.
The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.
Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.
Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.
Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.
Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 31 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Cody Durden | 1 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 45 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Bruno Silva | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Cody Durden | 1 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 28 of 63 | 44% | 20 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 57 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 24 of 57 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 33 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bruno Silva | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Durden | 20 of 26 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-122), Silva (+102)
Round 1
In the only other fight on the billing beyond the main event with UFC-ranked fighter, top-15 Durden (16-5-1, 5-3-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to put a rough face crank submission loss in December behind him. He will meet fellow grappler Silva (13-5-2, 1 NC; 3-2, 1 NC UFC) in the center of the cage, in what could be an interesting clash of styles on the mat. Referee Chris Tognoni is ready whether it lasts three minutes or all three rounds, and he commences the match as the 125ers bump fists. Durden is quick to lash out with a body kick, and he walks Silva down and marks Silva’s left eye up early with punches. Durden changes levels, and the two bonk heads as Tognoni tells them to be careful. Durden keeps chasing after his opponent, and Silva pushes him away and lands a sweeping leg kick. Silva races forward to tie the American up, and he lands a knee to the guts while Durden looks to trip Silva up. Durden scores a right at the break, and chases to land another long right hand before Silva can zip away. Silva pushes off with the ball of his foot, and he jabs the body and avoids a front kick. Durden clips his opponent with three punches, and he ducks when Silva tries to spin with a back fist to counter. Durden sits down on a chopping kick, and he evades a scooping uppercut and stops a takedown effort in its tracks from the Brazilian. Durden surges forward, fighting behind his jab, and he swipes with a left hook on his way in. Durden attacks with a leg kick, and he is countered with an overhand right. Durden connects with two hooks, and he meanders forward pawing with hooks until committing to one up top and another to the body. Silva misses with another big uppercut, but his front kick does land cleanly. Durden winds up with a huge right hand that busts into Silva’s nose, reddening his cheek and nose, and he wears it well. Durden parries a body shot, swipes out with a left hand and drills Silva with a right hand. Silva cries foul, and Tognoni pauses the action and calls for a replay to confirm that Durden’s fingers grazed the eyeball. The Brazilian needs a doctor to come in and wipe away his eye, and Tognoni goes to calmly warn Durden for the accidental foul. Silva informs Tognoni that he can continue, but needs a little more time to recover—he has four more minutes, and no booing crowd to urge him to return to combat sooner than he should. Silva tells Tognoni his eye is spasming, but he can keep going, and they get back to it after two minutes of recovery. Both men rush at one hellbent for leather, and the proceed to throw it hard. Both men tag the other, and Durden is warned for outstretched fingers. Silva kicks low as blood trickles out of his nostril, and Durden turns with a back kick that plants square in the solar plexus. Durden points to his success, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
The flyweights clock in for the second round, and Silva is smiling and ready to return to action. He strikes first in the form of a leg kick, and Durden answers him with a twitchy right hand. Durden finds success with it and beans the Brazilian with two more, putting “Bulldog” on skates. Silva backs off and shoots for a takedown, and Durden catches a brabo choke. Silva turns the proper direction, and he fights off a subsequent anaconda choke. Durden tries a third time to land a similar submission, and Silva survives all three and lowers himself to his back. Silva tries to tug off the fence links to find a better angle, and Durden lays flat on top of him. Silva wall-walks to his knees, and Durden is on him and drags him back down when Silva pops up. Durden stays glued to his man, but Silva explodes back to his feet and walks Durden down.
“Bulldog” walks through a jab and drills Durden in the jaw with a ferocious uppercut, knocking his mouthpiece clean out and sending the American crashing to the canvas. Silva pounces and unloads with relentless right hands, pouring it on and drawing blood that sprays the mat as he beats Durden down. Silva continues landing as Tognoni asks for Durden to fight back, and when Durden’s arms go limp, he intervenes.
This is a crazy comeback for Silva, who turns the tables with just one punch and may have performed some unauthorized dental work on the soon-to-be-unranked contender. This sport never fails to surprise, and no fighter is ever totally safe while the cage door is locked and both competitors are still in the fight.
The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Cody Durden R2 2:58 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Cody Durden because his aggressive wrestling pace will be too much for Bruno Silva, leading to a close decision. He notes that Silva has power and could land a knockout, but Durden's chin is a concern. He does not mention a bet, but is confident in the pick.
Cody picks Bruno Silva, highlighting his striking advantage and the fact that he accepted the fight before Durden, indicating confidence from training together. He notes Silva's defensive wrestling is solid and that Durden will struggle to take him down. He also mentions Silva's submission win over Tyson Nam as impressive.
Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, citing Durden's superior wrestling, volume, and training with Pantoja. He acknowledges Bruno's explosive power and opportunistic submissions but believes Durden will outwork him everywhere. Vreeland warns against underestimating Durden's standup and submission defense.
Silva is a +100 underdog. He has a slick boxing approach and BJJ black belt, and his takedown defense and ability to work back to his feet should frustrate Durden. Durden will put himself in danger with his wrestling, and Silva can capitalize with a submission or TKO. Silva's inactivity (16 months) is a concern, but his skills should be enough to get the win.
Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody's points about Silva's striking and the familiarity from training. He thinks Silva has an advantage on the feet and that Durden will be in trouble if he tries to grapple. He also notes the submission prop as a possibility.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, trusting in his activity. He notes Bruno Silva has been inactive, fighting only once since 2021, while Durden has been consistently fighting. He highlights Durden's wins over Jake Hadley and Charles Johnson, and believes Durden is more disciplined and focused. He also mentions Durden is bigger for the division.
Jake Hadley - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 60 of 165 | 36% | 70 of 176 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 96 of 259 | 37% | 97 of 260 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 27 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 25 of 75 | 33% | 26 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 34 of 105 | 32% | 34 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Smotherman | 60 of 165 | 36% | 28 of 124 | 17 of 24 | 15 of 17 | 59 of 163 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 96 of 259 | 37% | 43 of 181 | 48 of 72 | 5 of 6 | 96 of 259 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Smotherman | 24 of 58 | 41% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 37 of 79 | 46% | 13 of 48 | 23 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cameron Smotherman | 18 of 57 | 31% | 6 of 40 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 25 of 75 | 33% | 13 of 52 | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cameron Smotherman | 18 of 50 | 36% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 34 of 105 | 32% | 17 of 81 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Smotherman (+350), Hadley (-450)
Round 1
On short notice, Hadley (11-3, 3-3 UFC) goes from taking on Brady Hiestand to welcoming Fury FC staple Smotherman (11-4, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon. When the dust settles, one of these two bantamweights will celebrate a record in the UFC above .500. The other will fall below the even line. Referee Chris Tognoni will be the third man in the cage for this one, and he observes a glove touch as they get started. Hadley strikes first with a low kick, using it to disrupt the forward movement of his opponent. Hadley lands it again as Smotherman comes towards him, and he keeps chipping away at a safe range. Smotherman lands a jab to the body and reaches with a right hand over the top, forcing Hadley to bounce off the fencing. Smotherman connects with a right to the body and checks a kick to unload a right hand around the guard. Hadley stays composed working on the front leg of his foe, and Smotherman is measuring his right hand for it. Smotherman digs a right to the solar plexus, and he walks Hadley down throwing hands. Hadley tries to catch him first, but Smotherman’s right hand is loaded for bear. Hadley lands a kick to the ribs, and Smotherman gives him a right hand to the side to think about. Smotherman keeps attacking the body, stalking Hadley down but not getting reckless, and he just misses with a massive left hand. Smotherman opens up head shots with rights to the midsection, and Hadley keeps moving so as to not get cornered. Smotherman is devoted to body shots, and he slips a left hand over the top. Smotherman kicks his way into a punch combo, and Hadley chomps down on his gumshield and lets go with a big left. Smotherman slips a few punches, mostly targeting the body with his responses, and he scores a solid body kick while Hadley escapes. Smotherman clips Hadley with one big right hand before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman
Round 2
The round begins with Hadley leading with a few punches, and he kicks low and bangs his instep into the newcomer’s cup. Tognoni calls time as Smotherman grimaces, and Hadley apologizes profusely for the inadvertent groin kick. Smotherman asks to get going after a little under a minute, and they resume fighting by trading jabs. The two box one another, setting their big punches up in combination. Smotherman lands, Hadley hits him back and Smotherman gives him one more to think about. Smotherman knocks his man back with a short left, and Hadley steps in to drill the debutant with a sharp left hook. Smotherman blinks it out, jabs the body and comes in with a short flurry. Hadley is away before most of the strikes find their target, constantly circling to his left which is in the direction of Smotherman’s power right hand. Jabs fly out from both sides, and Smotherman is the one to successfully chain one into four more punches including a pair of body shots. Smotherman digs two more under the guard, and he puts a right hand straight on the sternum. Hadley swings back with a right hand off the temple, and Smotherman is in front of him ready to pay him back with a hooking left. They trade body shots at the same time, a rare occurrence, and when trading hands, Hadley jams his fingers into both eye sockets like Moe from “The Three Stooges.” Smotherman turns away, not thrilled by the foul one bit, and Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on him before long. Smotherman informs the physician that some Vaseline slid into his eye, causing him issues seeing. Tognoni tells Smotherman he needs to take all the time he should to recover, and not hurry back. Smotherman wipes his eye a few times with a piece of gauze, before asking for a towel to help clear his vision better. Smotherman keeps checking to see how much time he has, and he is still having a hard time seeing even after a few minutes. Smotherman informs both Tognoni and the doctor that he is still fighting, and that he is good to go after four minutes. Tognoni takes one point for the eye poke, and Hadley protests but his complaint falls in deaf ears. When they resume, Smotherman is amped up, swinging wildly until Hadley threatens with a takedown. While Hadley gets him down, Smotherman climbs back to his feet before long. Hadley presses his man against the wire, and Smotherman gets free at the sound of the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Smotherman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Smotherman
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Smotherman
Round 3
There is a double clap of hands to get started, and Smotherman is as aggressive as ever, swinging his way into close range. Hadley throws back but gets backed to the wall, and he is forced to shoot in for a double. Smotherman defends against it while being pinned to the fence, and Tognoni asks for more work as Hadley is largely stalling. Smotherman bursts out of the tie-up to walk Hadley down, eating a left hand so he can let his hands go. Hadley retreats and fails to counter effectively, with a leg kick his best weapon while Smotherman marches him down. Smotherman kicks him in the side, and he throws another kick to the same spot but absorbs a flush one-two in response. Smotherman digs a left to the liver and looks for a right to the head, and Hadley has a head kick waiting for him. Smotherman loads up a bit too much on his power strikes, and Hadley beats him to the punch when evading. Smotherman pounds on the ribs from both sides, landing cleanly and stepping in to knee “White Kong” in the guts. Smotherman goes body to head and then chains a knee after one, flowing with punches and knees while Hadley’s back is up against the fence. Hadley surprises the Texan with a left hand, and Smotherman’s legs wobble briefly as he gathers himself. Hadley measures out another big left, and Smotherman wears it well this time and lets off a front kick that bounces into Hadley’s cup. Tognoni is on top of it, giving Hadley time to recover as it is now Smotherman who has to apologize. Hadley is ready after about 40 seconds, and Smotherman walks him down as soon as they resume. Smotherman shoves an uppercut through the guard, and Hadley is warned for outstretched fingers as he tries to fence off. Smotherman strings several punches together, only for Hadley to blast him in the face with heavy blows and a head kick that further makes his knees quake. Hadley swings wildly, Smotherman defends from a body kick and gives his man one final overhand right to think about before the third round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hadley (29-27 Smotherman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hadley (29-27 Smotherman)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman (30-26 Smotherman)
The Official Result
Cameron Smotherman def. Jake Hadley via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 29-27, 29-27)
Angelo picks Cameron Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand, but the fight is Smotherman vs Hadley; likely a transcript error) because he believes Smotherman's wrestling, size, and strength will be too much for Jake Hadley. He notes Hadley's win over Ken Laramie was more about Laramie's poor performance than Hadley's skill. He thinks Smotherman's grit and takedown ability will dominate, and he expects the odds to widen further.
Big Brady picks Jake Hadley by second-round submission. He notes Smotherman has a questionable chin and non-existent takedown defense. Hadley can take him down easily and has a big BJJ advantage. He expects Hadley to make it look easy, possibly finishing by submission in the second round.
Connor also picks Hadley, emphasizing that Smotherman's lack of movement and poor defense make him a perfect opponent for Hadley's slick offensive boxing. He notes that Smotherman's only path to victory is if opponents let him pressure them, but Hadley will pour on volume and not be intimidated.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Hadley has a big grappling advantage and Smotherman is taking this fight on short notice, having to cut to 135 lbs and flying from Abu Dhabi. Hadley is the better grappler and should have no problems taking the fight to the ground where Smotherman has shown issues. Look for Hadley to get a submission.
The Guru picks Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand) despite acknowledging that picking against Jake Hadley often backfires. He notes Smotherman is bigger and has more experience, and expects him to lead the dance with pressure and cardio, winning a 29-28 decision by taking over in the last two rounds. He doubts Hadley's offensive grappling and sees him looking for submissions from bottom.
Zane picks Hadley, noting that Smotherman is extremely flat-footed and stands still, making him an easy target for Hadley's offensive boxing. He compares Smotherman to a statue who gets clocked when facing speed. Hadley's last fight against a similar flat-footed opponent (Caolan Loughran) went well, and this matchup is even more forgiving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 81 of 154 | 52% | 107 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 66 of 181 | 36% | 68 of 188 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jake Hadley | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 24 of 73 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 3 | Jake Hadley | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Caolán Loughran | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 25 of 74 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 81 of 154 | 52% | 35 of 106 | 13 of 15 | 33 of 33 | 78 of 150 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 66 of 181 | 36% | 33 of 136 | 18 of 29 | 15 of 16 | 64 of 178 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 27 of 48 | 56% | 6 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 14 | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 19 of 41 | 46% | 8 of 27 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Hadley | 24 of 49 | 48% | 11 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 22 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 22 of 67 | 32% | 13 of 52 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jake Hadley | 30 of 57 | 52% | 18 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Caolán Loughran | 25 of 73 | 34% | 12 of 57 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 24 of 71 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Caolán Loughran due to the size advantage, as Jake Hadley is moving up on short notice. He notes that Loughran will use his size to bully Hadley against the cage and slow the pace. Angelo acknowledges that Hadley is the better technical striker but believes the weight difference and Loughran's pressure will be decisive. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet on Hadley.
Cody picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physicality, pressure, and durability. He notes that Jake Hadley has looked defeated in recent fights, has poor cardio, and is moving up on short notice. Cody believes Loughran's constant forward pressure and takedowns will overwhelm Hadley, who has shown no ability to overcome adversity.
Daniel picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physical strength and the fact that Hadley is moving up a weight class on short notice. He notes Hadley has been inconsistent and struggled in his last two fights, and doesn't think he'll fare better against a stronger opponent.
Daniel thinks Caolán Loughran is the more physical fighter who can bully Jake Hadley with takedowns and top control. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and Loughran's durability, though Loughran is hittable. He picks Loughran to win by grinding out a decision.
Paul also picks Loughran, noting that Hadley's pace is unsustainable and that Loughran's volume (140 significant strikes in his last fight) will be too much. He believes Hadley will get outmuscled and that Loughran's wrestling and pressure will secure the win.
The MMA Guru picks Caolán Loughran, calling Jake Hadley's decision to take this fight on short notice 'awful.' He believes Loughran will have a significant size and strength advantage, being a natural bantamweight, while Hadley is a small flyweight. The Guru notes that Hadley has been 'wet blanketed' by larger grapplers before and expects Loughran to dominate with his grappling. He thinks Hadley's submission skills won't be enough to overcome the weight difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 70 of 168 | 41% | 88 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 48 of 128 | 37% | 50 of 130 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 1 | 32 of 74 | 43% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 29 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 11 of 43 | 25% | 11 of 43 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 70 of 168 | 41% | 36 of 125 | 12 of 18 | 22 of 25 | 66 of 159 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Jake Hadley | 48 of 128 | 37% | 15 of 86 | 15 of 22 | 18 of 20 | 46 of 124 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 19 of 40 | 47% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 17 of 47 | 36% | 3 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 32 of 74 | 43% | 19 of 58 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Jake Hadley | 20 of 38 | 52% | 6 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 19 of 54 | 35% | 12 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 11 of 43 | 25% | 6 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.
Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.
Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 38 of 85 | 44% | 63 of 122 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:25 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 26 of 83 | 31% | 45 of 106 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 3 | 1 | 2:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 7 of 37 | 18% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Cody Durden | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 33 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 38 of 85 | 44% | 23 of 66 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 30 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 17 |
| Jake Hadley | 26 of 83 | 31% | 12 of 61 | 10 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 76 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 12 of 30 | 40% | 6 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jake Hadley | 7 of 37 | 18% | 2 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 11 of 24 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Jake Hadley | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Durden | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Jake Hadley | 7 of 24 | 29% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hadley (-198), Durden (+164)
Round 1
Jimmy Neely will oversee this flyweight clash. A counter right partially lands for Durden. He follows with a body kick and doges a Hadley counter. A stiff right lands for Durden, another nice counter. Durden fires off another right but it’s blocked. Durden goes to the body. Durden pressures with a combination, then smiles and points at his foe. Durden lands a body kick an descapes after Hadley catches it. Another right lands and Hadley goes to the canvas. Hadley is cut open from an elbow that landed earlier. Durden follows his man to the mat, moving from half guard to the back. Hadley looks to control the wrists, and Durden spins around to side control. The American stays heavy from this position. Hadley works his way up in a scramble, but Durden dumps him on his back immediately. Durden stands, and Hadley hustles his way up. The flyweights trade in the pocket before Durden shoots for a takedown. Hadley locks in a guillotine on the way down. Fortunately for Durden, the choke comes in the last 10 seconds and he survives.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
Durden changes levels on a Hadley kick and grounds his man within the first 15 seconds. Hadley looks to create a scramble and he’s up in short order. They trade punches before Durden steps in with a pair of heavy elbows. Durden has a takedown denied and Hadley turns him around into the fence. Hadley shoots for a takedown but Durden sprawls. Durden locks in an anaconda. Hadley defends and gives a thumbs up before scrambling to take Durden’s back. Hadley has a triangle now, and he punches away at Durden’s head. Hadley looks to isolate the arm and he goes belly down. Durden is in no man’s land. He’s grimacing as Hadley works to extend the arm. Hadley adjusts the hold, torquing the arm with the triangle locked in. Somehow, Durden frees himself and ends the frame landing a series of right hands from top position.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Round 3
It’s up for grabs in this round. Hadley lands a left following a Durden body kick. A Durden right finds the mark, and an ensuing inside leg kick stumbles Hadley. Another right gets through for Durden. A left from Hadley gets through the guard of Durden. Hadley steps in with another left. they trade low kicks and Durden sticks his right hand yet again. A 1-2 connects for Durden. Hadley changes levels for a takedown, but Durden sprawls nicely. Durden thinks about a choke with Hadley on his knees, but the Englishman’s submission defense is solid. Durden stands and hovers over his foe, kicking at Hadley’s legs. Hadley shoots for a takedown as he stands but Durden sprawls well. They’re in a stalemate near the fence, but Durden powers his foe to his back with less than 20 seconds to go. With Hadley clinging to a leg, Durden pounds away with left hands, urging on the Nashville crowd. The horn sounds and Durden stands and flips the bird at his opponent.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Jake Hadley (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo leans toward Cody Durden for the upset, despite Jake Hadley being a near 2-1 favorite. He notes Durden's heavy hands and relentless wrestling pace, but acknowledges Hadley is the better overall fighter with dangerous BJJ. He points out that Hadley has been taken down in almost every fight and given up control time. Angelo plans to wait for line movement and may bet Durden if he becomes a bigger underdog, comparing it to missing out on CJ Vergara.
Big Brady is confident in Hadley, citing his improved striking, volume, and BJJ black belt. He notes Durden has been submitted three times (twice in UFC) and is taking this fight on short notice. He expects Hadley to break Durden and submit him in the second round, possibly after Durden makes a mistake on the mat.
Cody picks Hadley, citing his superior boxing, power, and opportunistic submission game. He notes Durden's short notice and tendency to make mistakes leading to submissions. He believes Hadley can survive Durden's wrestling early and take over in later rounds. He also likes Hadley by submission at +225.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, citing his relentless wrestling, pace, and improvements training with champion Alexandre Pantoja. He notes that Durden's balls-to-the-wall style can leave openings for submissions, but believes if Durden avoids those, his path to victory is clear via wrestling and pressure. Levi acknowledges Hadley's opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Durden's grappling and cardio will overwhelm Hadley over three rounds. He is biased as Durden's friend but still makes a strong case.
James is confident Jake Hadley wins, either by submission or on the feet. He notes Hadley's jiu-jitsu is elite and can counteract Durden's wrestling, and that Durden has been submitted before. He also favors Hadley in striking, matching power. He expects Durden to shoot takedowns and put himself in bad positions.
Hadley is the better striker and has good defensive grappling to counter Durden's wrestling. Durden is fragile against resistance. I like the under 2.5 rounds more than the moneyline because Hadley is likely to finish Durden, though there's a chance Durden grinds out a decision. I'm going with Hadley by finish under 2.5 rounds.
Paul leans towards Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and believes Durden can grind out a decision. However, he is not confident and sees it as a live bet opportunity.
The host picks Jake Hadley, calling him a more complete mixed martial artist with higher upside. He praises Hadley's BJJ, striking diversity, and youth (27), but notes the key is stuffing Durden's takedowns. He acknowledges Durden's wrestling and physical prime but believes Hadley's skill set prevails. He advises against betting Hadley at current odds (-186) and sees value on Durden as a dog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 1 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 1 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Jake Hadley wins and thinks the odds should be wider. He notes Hadley has solid boxing and aggressive BJJ, while Malcolm Gordon is chinny and gets finished. He thinks Gordon's performance against Makayev is misleading because Makayev is not dangerous. He expects Hadley to beat Gordon up on the feet and survive any submission attempts.
Big Brady picks Jake Hadley, citing Malcolm Gordon's poor durability (all losses inside distance) and 9% takedown defense. He notes Hadley's takedown defense is a concern (37%), but believes Hadley can finish via KO or submission. He predicts a second-round submission, but acknowledges Gordon is a solid fighter otherwise.
Cody picks Hadley, citing his significant advantages in boxing and wrestling. He notes Gordon has durability issues and has been submitted recently. He thinks Hadley can dictate where the fight goes and will likely finish Gordon by knockout or submission. He says Hadley is more refined and has beaten better competition.
Connor picks Hadley, citing Gordon's severe durability issues. He notes that Gordon's aggressive style leaves him open to counters, and Hadley has the chin to absorb punishment and keep fighting. Connor believes Hadley's pressure and volume will eventually break Gordon, who has a history of getting knocked out.
Jacob thinks Jake Hadley is the better fighter and should win, but he is worried about Malcolm Gordon's wildness and aggression. He notes Gordon goes out on his shield and takes chances, which could lead to a submission or scramble that catches Hadley. He has Hadley in a parlay but is a bit worried about it.
Hadley has crisp boxing and a dangerous submission game, as shown in his last win over Candelario. Gordon is a BJJ black belt but his striking is uncomfortable and he crashes the pocket recklessly to get takedowns. Hadley is the better striker and grappler, and should be able to dictate where the fight goes. A finish inside the distance is likely, either by knockout or club-and-sub.
Paul picks Hadley but is more interested in the plus money on fight goes to decision. He notes Hadley hasn't shown huge power and Gordon is durable enough to go the distance. He likes Hadley by decision at plus 400 and thinks it could grow to plus 500. He says Hadley at home should get the nod in a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley to win by TKO or submission, praising his composure and improvement since his debut. He notes Gordon's chin is suspect and Hadley has the striking and grappling advantage. He predicts Hadley will pressure Gordon, hurt him on the feet, and potentially latch on a rear-naked choke after dropping him.
Zane also picks Hadley, agreeing that Gordon's chin is a fatal flaw. He notes that Hadley is hittable but durable, and his aggressive style will create opportunities. Zane points out that Gordon's only UFC win came against a fading opponent, and he is always in danger of getting finished.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 69 of 148 | 46% | 69 of 148 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Carlos Candelario | 0 | 90 of 169 | 53% | 107 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 0 | 58 of 123 | 47% | 58 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Candelario | 0 | 50 of 116 | 43% | 50 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jake Hadley | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Carlos Candelario | 0 | 40 of 53 | 75% | 57 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hadley | 69 of 148 | 46% | 31 of 100 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 17 | 67 of 146 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Candelario | 90 of 169 | 53% | 45 of 118 | 24 of 30 | 21 of 21 | 65 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Hadley | 58 of 123 | 47% | 26 of 83 | 17 of 24 | 15 of 16 | 57 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Candelario | 50 of 116 | 43% | 15 of 76 | 19 of 24 | 16 of 16 | 50 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Hadley | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Candelario | 40 of 53 | 75% | 30 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 24 |
Angelo picks Jake Hadley, calling him the cleaner, more technical fighter with solid boxing, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Candelario is gritty and a dog, but hasn't been the same since a four-year layoff. He warns that if Hadley gets sucked into a scrap, he could have trouble, but overall likes Hadley to get it done.
Big Brady views this as a tailor-made matchup for Hadley, citing Candelario's historically poor takedown defense. He believes Hadley's wrestling and grappling will dominate, and he can grind out a decision. The only concern is Hadley's UFC debut where he failed to take down Nascimento, but Candelario's takedown defense is much worse. He expects Hadley to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.
Cody picks Carlos Candelario as an underdog. He notes that Candelario has good defensive grappling, surviving against high-level BJJ guys like Ronald Candido and Tatsuya Taira. He thinks Candelario has better volume and offensive wrestling, as seen against Victor Altamirano (5 takedowns). Hadley has shown poor grappling off his back, getting taken down by Alan Nascimento and unable to get up. Cody thinks Candelario can take Hadley down and grind him out, but acknowledges Hadley may be stronger. He is leaning towards Candelario but not fully locked in.
Connor agrees, noting that Candelario is difficult to submit and control, and his aggressive style will force mistakes from Hadley. Hadley's guard game is unlikely to succeed at flyweight, and Candelario's cardio and scrambling should win out. Connor acknowledges Hadley could win if he improves, but needs to see it first.
Daniel Levi leans Jake Hadley, noting he may be more physically imposing and should scrape by. He acknowledges Candelario's toughness but sees Hadley as the better fighter. He is not interested in laying -255 on him.
The host likes Hadley's offensive grappling but is cautious about the wide line (-275). He notes Hadley struggled against opponents who could contend on the ground, and Candelario showed good submission defense in his last fight. He expects Hadley to control the fight via grappling but likely go to decision, as Candelario may survive submission attempts. He prefers to wait for over/under totals rather than play the moneyline.
Paul picks Candelario and has already bet him at +225. He notes that Hadley got exposed against Nascimento, who negated his grappling. Candelario has proven he can survive on the ground and has better striking volume. Paul thinks Candelario's offensive wrestling could be key, as he scored takedowns against Taira. He sees Candelario as a live underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite with 92% of tapology picks. He believes Hadley should beat Candelario if he initiates grappling early rather than striking. He criticizes Candelario's performance against Tatsuro Taira and notes Hadley's strong competition outside the UFC. He predicts a submission win in the second round, but disagrees with the wide odds, suggesting Candelario is not bad.
Zane picks Candelario because Hadley showed poor takedown defense in his debut, easily giving up takedowns and playing guard, which is disastrous at flyweight. Candelario is aggressive, hard to submit, and will push a high pace over three rounds. Hadley's willingness to fight off his back is a major liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Nascimento | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 3:50 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 36 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 9:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allan Nascimento | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:59 | |
| 2 | Allan Nascimento | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Allan Nascimento | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan Nascimento | 8 of 29 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 |
| Jake Hadley | 19 of 52 | 36% | 7 of 32 | 8 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allan Nascimento | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Jake Hadley | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Allan Nascimento | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 9 | |
| 3 | Allan Nascimento | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jake Hadley | 6 of 20 | 30% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hadley (-210), Nascimento (+175)
Round 1
Undefeated Brit prospect Hadley makes his debut against “Puro Osso,” with referee Mike Beltran set to oversee the proceedings. The flyweights begin exchanging right away, with Hadley in southpaw to Nascimento’s orthodox stance. Nascimento catches a kick and runs Hadley to the canvas. Hadley immediately uses an omoplata to sweep to top position, setting up in the Brazilian’s guard. He moves to half guard, pins Nascimento’s right arm and moves to the back. Nascimento keeps hold of Hadley’s leg, preventing him from completing the back take, then threatens with a heel hook before sweeping to top position. Hadley closes up his guard, then applies a body triangle from the bottom. With a minute left, it’s still Nascimento on top, throwing short shoulder strikes and driving Hadley toward the fence. Nascimento tries to pass Hadley’s guard, but time expires before he can.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Round 2
Hadley rushes forward to open the round and is met by a flying knee from Nascimento. A moment later, Nascimento changes levels and intercepts the advancing Hadley with a nice double-leg. Hadley immediately looks to use rubber guard, but Nascimento extracts his arms and “White Kong” changes to conventional guard. Two minutes into the round, the Brazilian is still in top position, where he advances to half guard. Hadley is active on the bottom, shifting his hips and looking for a chance to escape or sweep. Hadley uses feet on hips to kick Nascimento off of him, but Nascimento dives right back into his guard. Under a minute left, and Hadley stands up against the fence. They clinch there, with Nascimento’s back against the cage. Hadley throws a couple of short knees before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Round 3
The flyweights touch gloves to open the final round. Hadley scores with an overhand left. A moment later, Hadley grabs a standing guillotine choke. He cranks it hard, and though he loses the choke, he uses it to drive Nascimento down to the mat. Hadley pounces and ends up with a slightly out-of-position brabo choke. He readjusts and moves to the back, but Nascimento shrugs him off, spins and lands on top. Nascimento is in loose half-guard and working for a D’Arce choke. Nascimento loses the choke but spins to the back. Hadley scrambles away and ends up on his back with the Brazilian standing over him. Hadley gets up to his knees and Nascimento grabs a front headlock. He loses the headlock and Hadley takes him back down. Hadley tries for a guillotine choke, but gets swept for his trouble. Under 30 seconds left, Nascimento is on top. The final horn sounds on 15 minutes of frenetic grappling.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Jake Hadley via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Cody picks Nascimento as a live underdog. He notes Nascimento is tricky off his back, has good cardio, and keeps fights close. He mentions Hadley missed weight, has attitude issues, and is still adjusting to North America. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot.
Paul also picks Nascimento, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nascimento is competitive, has good striking volume, and attacks non-stop off his back. He thinks Hadley is talented but has red flags like missing weight and rubbing matchmakers the wrong way. He likes the plus money.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo leans toward Cody Durden for the upset, despite Jake Hadley being a near 2-1 favorite. He notes Durden's heavy hands and relentless wrestling pace, but acknowledges Hadley is the better overall fighter with dangerous BJJ. He points out that Hadley has been taken down in almost every fight and given up control time. Angelo plans to wait for line movement and may bet Durden if he becomes a bigger underdog, comparing it to missing out on CJ Vergara.
Big Brady is confident in Hadley, citing his improved striking, volume, and BJJ black belt. He notes Durden has been submitted three times (twice in UFC) and is taking this fight on short notice. He expects Hadley to break Durden and submit him in the second round, possibly after Durden makes a mistake on the mat.
Cody picks Hadley, citing his superior boxing, power, and opportunistic submission game. He notes Durden's short notice and tendency to make mistakes leading to submissions. He believes Hadley can survive Durden's wrestling early and take over in later rounds. He also likes Hadley by submission at +225.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, citing his relentless wrestling, pace, and improvements training with champion Alexandre Pantoja. He notes that Durden's balls-to-the-wall style can leave openings for submissions, but believes if Durden avoids those, his path to victory is clear via wrestling and pressure. Levi acknowledges Hadley's opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Durden's grappling and cardio will overwhelm Hadley over three rounds. He is biased as Durden's friend but still makes a strong case.
James is confident Jake Hadley wins, either by submission or on the feet. He notes Hadley's jiu-jitsu is elite and can counteract Durden's wrestling, and that Durden has been submitted before. He also favors Hadley in striking, matching power. He expects Durden to shoot takedowns and put himself in bad positions.
Hadley is the better striker and has good defensive grappling to counter Durden's wrestling. Durden is fragile against resistance. I like the under 2.5 rounds more than the moneyline because Hadley is likely to finish Durden, though there's a chance Durden grinds out a decision. I'm going with Hadley by finish under 2.5 rounds.
Paul leans towards Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and believes Durden can grind out a decision. However, he is not confident and sees it as a live bet opportunity.
The host picks Jake Hadley, calling him a more complete mixed martial artist with higher upside. He praises Hadley's BJJ, striking diversity, and youth (27), but notes the key is stuffing Durden's takedowns. He acknowledges Durden's wrestling and physical prime but believes Hadley's skill set prevails. He advises against betting Hadley at current odds (-186) and sees value on Durden as a dog.
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