UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Billy Quarantillo
7.44 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
1.47 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Damon Jackson
2.96 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Billy Quarantillo
Moneyline
BetWay -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +180
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +460
Damon Jackson
Moneyline
BetMGM +145
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
DraftKings +350
Billy Quarantillo - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Youssef Zalal 0 10 of 50 20% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Billy Quarantillo 0 33 of 56 58% 37 of 62 2 of 2 100% 2 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Youssef Zalal 0 8 of 40 20% 15 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Billy Quarantillo 0 31 of 49 63% 33 of 52 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:33
2 Youssef Zalal 0 2 of 10 20% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Youssef Zalal 10 of 50 20% 8 of 36 0 of 8 2 of 6 10 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 33 of 56 58% 18 of 36 5 of 9 10 of 11 28 of 49 0 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Youssef Zalal 8 of 40 20% 6 of 28 0 of 6 2 of 6 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 31 of 49 63% 17 of 31 5 of 8 9 of 10 26 of 42 0 of 1 5 of 6
2 Youssef Zalal 2 of 10 20% 2 of 8 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Quarantillo (-148), Zalal (+124)

Round 1
Keeping the main card pushing, the hyper-aggressive Quarantillo (18-5, 6-3 UFC) will welcome kickboxer-turned-wrestler Zalal (13-5-1, 3-3-1 UFC) back to the Octagon after a year and half away. While Quarantillo has battled three top-25 names in that span, Zalal has crushed three adversaries in the Sparta Combat League promotion—the last coming at the end of a night where he won a boxing match, then a kickboxing match, and tapped a kickboxer in the MMA finals. Speed will be the name of the game in this featherweight encounter, and referee Herb Dean will try to keep up. Gloves are tapped, and Zalal moves right to the middle of the cage to plant a kick on the lead leg of the Floridian. When Quarantillo comes forward to throw hands, Zalal skirts on the outside and lands another slapping calf kick. Zalal pokes out a jab and has a third leg kick find its home, and he is able to dance away from “Billy Q.” Zalal gets off kicks on the inside and out of his foe’s leg, and he snaps a jab out to follow. Quarantillo again telegraphs his blitz, and Zalal dodges everything but a leg kick and a power right hand. Zalal rolls with it and strafes from side to side, not letting Quarantillo find his pattern yet. Quarantillo steps in with a knee that brushes his past his target, and he reaches out with a right hand. Zalal keeps moving and lands a knee to the chest, and Quarantillo chases him and walks into a punch to the ribs and a low kick. Quarantillo lumbers in with a right that whiffs, and Zalal rings his bell with a right hand as he delivers kicks to several targets. Zalal hops in and out, landing another one-two as Quarantillo shakes his head. Quarantillo crashes forward and results in a clinch, and Zalal scrambles away and points at the ground as he would prefer to strike. Zalal takes a right hand on the temple and drops to a knee, and he fires back and gets Quarantillo’s attention with a flurry of punches. The right hand from Zalal tags Quarantillo another time, nails him with a knee and he hits a trip that takes “Billy Q” off his feet. Zalal moves into the guard, and he hacks down with elbows and prevents Quarantillo from getting his butterfly hooks in. Quarantillo rolls for an armbar, and Zalal sees it coming and turns to the right side and batters him with punches and elbows. Zalal steps over to take the back, and he hooks up a body triangle and hunts for a standing rear-naked choke when Quarantillo stands. Quarantillo falls to the ground, with the grip on his chin and not under it, and he toughs it out and winces in pain. Zalal crushes with the squeeze until Quarantillo punches his way out of it, and he smacks Quarantillo on the side of the head until the one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 2
Quarantillo starts the round aggressively, winging overhand rights, and tries to counter kicks with this big right hand. Zalal slides from side to side, landing a front kick and a few punches until he closes in to hit a trip and toss Quarantillo to his back. Zalal ignores a rubber guard moment from his opponent so he can punish Quarantillo with punches and hammerfists, and he stacks Quarantillo up and thwarts an armbar as Quarantillo turns to his knees. Zalal hangs on from behind again, and he drags a standing Quarantillo back down and locks down a body triangle.
Zalal hunts for a rear-naked choke, and he wriggles his forearm beneath the chin. When the choke locks down, Quarantillo quickly knows that this is it for him, and he surrenders with taps on the arm.
This is a stellar performance for the returning Zalal, who ended a seven-fight streak in the Octagon of going the distance by running roughshod over a solid featherweight in Quarantillo.

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Billy Quarantillo R2 1:50 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo is very confident in Billy Quarantillo, placing a full unit bet on him at -146. He believes Quarantillo's constant forward pressure and high output will overwhelm Zalal, who prefers to point fight from the outside. He expects the line to rebound to -300 and advises jumping on the current value.

full unit bet at -146
"I love Billy Q in this spot I've got a full unit I bet a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume (almost 8 strikes per minute) compared to Zalal's low volume (2.75). He notes Zalal is durable and has good cardio but will be outworked. He thinks Quarantillo will drown Zalal with activity and win a decision.

"I think Billy Q is going to outwork him he outworks pretty much everybody I don't think Z has the stopping power to to to make him pay for how hitable he is as well so yeah should just be …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, durability, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Zalal's wrestling could be neutralized by Quarantillo's scrambling and constant forward pressure. Cody notes that Zalal is returning after a layoff and may not be ready for Quarantillo's relentless style.

"I gotta go with Billy Q."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Youssef Zalal, believing he can pick Quarantillo apart with his striking and avoid getting drawn into a brawl. He notes Zalal has never had cardio issues and has won rounds against top competition. He thinks Zalal's maturity and composure will be key, but he would have liked better odds.

"I do kind of think that zah can can pick him apart and not get you know kind of uh goated into that that brawl that dog fight that Billy Q likes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal is the better striker with good combinations and cardio. He should be able to outwork Quarantillo on the feet and avoid takedowns. Quarantillo is a slow starter who relies on pressure and grappling, but his takedown success rate is low. Zalal's improved aggression could be key, but there is concern about Quarantillo's clinch and submission threats. Zalal by decision is the pick.

"I'm going to go with zal here I think zal grinds this one out with his striking stays safe enough in the clinch situations... getting the win on the scorecards and pulling off the upset."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Quarantillo's volume and the value at minus 140. He believes Zalal's path to victory via takedowns is difficult because Quarantillo fights to get back up and throws volume. Paul sees Quarantillo as the clear play.

"Billy Q minus 140 seems more than fair as far as I'm concerned so it's Billy Q for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal as an underdog over Billy Quarantillo, believing Zalal is a better striker with good cardio and reach. He criticizes Quarantillo's slow movement and poor standup. He thinks Zalal will finish Quarantillo by TKO, catching him coming in with straight punches.

TKO win
"I'm taking Yousef zow over Billy quarantillo... he finishes Billy quarantillo by TKO"
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Edson Barboza
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
TKO (knees and punches) R2 4:30 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 87 of 151 57% 127 of 194 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:20
Alexander Hernandez 0 48 of 94 51% 59 of 105 2 of 6 33% 1 0 4:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 48 39% 45 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 32 of 60 53% 38 of 66 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:53
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 68 of 103 66% 82 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 34 47% 21 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 87 of 151 57% 61 of 123 17 of 18 9 of 10 52 of 109 21 of 22 14 of 20
Alexander Hernandez 48 of 94 51% 33 of 70 5 of 9 10 of 15 34 of 74 8 of 11 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 19 of 48 39% 9 of 36 6 of 7 4 of 5 17 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 32 of 60 53% 21 of 41 3 of 6 8 of 13 19 of 42 7 of 9 6 of 9
2 Billy Quarantillo 68 of 103 66% 52 of 87 11 of 11 5 of 5 35 of 64 19 of 19 14 of 20
Alexander Hernandez 16 of 34 47% 12 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Billy Quarantillo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Quarantillo (-165), Hernandez (+140)

Round 1
The abbreviated early prelims wrap up with a featherweight contest as high-volume striker Quarantillo (16-4, 4-2 UFC) welcomes ex-lightweight mainstay Hernandez (13-5, 5-4 UFC) to his lower division. Both men are searching for a key win, and one man should achieve it in the next 15 minutes or less. They touch gloves as referee Chris Tognoni watches on, and Quarantillo lashes out with a low kick. Hernandez responds in kind, and Quarantillo walks him down with a one-two. Hernandez backs off to fling another low kick, and he blocks a swinging punch that whizzes at his head. Hernandez plods forward and walks into a punch, and he gets off a body kick up close. “The Great Ape” connects with a low kick, and Quarantillo catches a subsequent body kick but gets popped in the chops before setting it down. Quarantillo jabs to the head and body, while Hernandez swings for the bleachers. A low kick from Quarantillo gets checked, and Hernandez defends it but falls to his seat. Hernandez recovers well enough to stand, and he pursues a double and plants Quarantillo on his back. Quarantillo tries to push off the fence without grabbing it, and he traps Hernandez’ neck to slow him down. Quarantillo attempts to sit up, and Hernandez belts him in the face a few times before changing levels to set Quarantillo back down. The Floridian defends with his back on the wall as Hernandez doggedly goes for takedowns, and Hernandez is warned for fence grabs. Quarantillo looks for a counter trip, but Hernandez greets him with a clean elbow. Quarantillo breaks free but is bloodied up from the blows, and he finds more coming at his face. Quarantillo draws blood with a few right hands, slicing open the cheek of “The Great Ape.” Hernandez explodes into action, leaping forward to tackle Quarantillo over, and he lands to immediately go after an arm-triangle choke. Hernandez sits up with one single elbow, and this rips Quarantillo’s forehead wide open. Blood immediately pours from the wound, but Quarantillo is not defeated, as he throws his legs up to possibly set up a triangle choke. Hernandez ignores the sub setups to work Quarantillo over with ground-and-pound, opening the cut a little further. Hernandez lets him back up, and the two slug it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the cut on Quarantillo’s head, but it is not a fight-ending gash over his left eye. Quarantillo starts off the round aggressively, and he throws a head kick and follows it with a few punches. When Hernandez replies with a couple punches, Quarantillo jumps with a kick and gets grabbed midair and pushed to the ground. Hernandez gets on top, but he cannot keep Quarantillo there, as Quarantillo fights his way back up and separates. The two featherweight trade jabs, and Hernandez changes levels but gets kneed in the chin by the taller Quarantillo. Hernandez absorbs a few more knees and is once more warned for fence grabs, and he elects to isolate Quarantillo’s right leg and lift him in the air. Quarantillo keeps his balance and stays upright with his back to the wire, and he breaks off and pushes out several jabs. Hernandez meets him with jabs of his own, and he gets swept with a low kick. When he stands, Quarantillo hunts for a guillotine choke, and Quarantillo goes after a double to change things up. When that fails, Quarantillo pursues a single-leg entry, and he abandons this to land body shots and tag Hernandez up top. A few punches appear to surprise Hernandez, who desperately shoots for a takedown. The momentum has shifted, as Quarantillo stands him up and marks him up with a long series of punches. Quarantillo leaps at him with a superman punch, and he tees off on Hernandez with a combination before securing a single and placing Hernandez on his seat. Quarantillo pushes Hernandez over and slams his fist on the side and back of his head, and Tognoni thinks about stopping it for the foul but lets it play on as Quarantillo adjusts his trajectory. Hernandez muscles his way back to his feet, but Quarantillo is battering him with punch after unanswered punch.
Hernandez is barely on his feet and out of gas, and Quarantillo breaks a clinch to smash Hernandez in the face with an elbow. Quarantillo lays into a spent Hernandez with a knee that doubles him over, and he continues his tornado of knees, fists and anything else at his disposal until Tognoni rescues Hernandez from the unrelenting beating.
Quarantillo turned up the pace and put Hernandez away in impressive fashion, while reminding the division that he is still very much a factor.

The Official Result
Billy Quarantillo def. Alexander Hernandez R2 4:30 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as an underdog, noting that the odds (Quarantillo nearly a 2-1 favorite) feel off. He highlights Hernandez's superior athleticism, wrestling, and striking defense, and believes Quarantillo may have rust after a year off. However, he admits it's a low-confidence pick and plans to watch for prop bets like the plus 3.5 round bet on Hernandez's scorecard.

Looking at plus 3.5 round bet on Hernandez's scorecard (BetOnline exclusive).
"I think I like him in The Underdogs fight here like Billy's very good he sets an incredible Pace but he is a year removed from his last fight and I'm hoping there's going to be some Rust there so …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his high volume and pressure that will break Hernandez. He notes Hernandez has a history of gassing and crumbling under adversity, and cutting to featherweight may worsen his cardio. He expects Quarantillo to weather an early storm and finish Hernandez in the second round by knockout.

Quarantillo wins by second round knockout
"I think early on in that first round Hernandez probably does have some success... but as the fight goes on I think Billy's gonna break him... give me corntilla to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his cardio, durability, and pace. He thinks Hernandez is explosive early but fades, and that Quarantillo will break him down in later rounds. He suggests live betting Quarantillo after round 1, as the line will improve. He expects a finish or dominant decision.

Live bet Quarantillo after round 1
"I'm gonna be way better off betting this after first round whereas Billy will be it'd be competitive and I can get close to even or Billy might lose and I can get slight plus money but the real fight …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his massive output advantage. He notes Hernandez has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight and tends to fade after the first round. Quarantillo, by contrast, threw 383 strikes in his fight with Shane Burgos. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's early power and explosiveness, but believes if Quarantillo can survive the first round, he will drown Hernandez with volume and pressure. He considers betting on Quarantillo but is wary of Hernandez's early finish potential.

Considering a bet on Quarantillo due to output difference.
"Billy Q attempts 383 strikes and he lands 196 of them... if Billy can drag this to those deep Waters I got Billy Q in that type of fight over Alex Hernandez all day"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Lock is confident in Billy Quarantillo, citing his style of dragging opponents into deep waters and drowning them with pace and pressure. He believes Alexander Hernandez relies on physical gifts but his technical abilities haven't caught up, and the weight cut to featherweight for the first time in nine years is a major concern. Lock thinks Quarantillo's durability will allow him to survive Hernandez's early finishing threat, and then he will finish Hernandez late. He sees Quarantillo as a top-15 gatekeeper with longevity in the UFC.

"I'm more so on the Billy Q side here man and obviously on the betting uh line he's a minus 160 minus 170 favorite but you're getting him pretty much how to pick and price here against uh Alexander Hernandez …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul leans Quarantillo, noting his cardio and ability to withstand damage. He thinks Hernandez is dangerous early but fades. He is not interested in the minus 160 line early, preferring to wait for live betting. He sees Quarantillo taking over in round 3.

Billy Quarantillo round 3 (+1300)
"Billy round three I see like plus 1300 out there like that's gonna get my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo by third-round TKO over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Hernandez will have a tough weight cut to featherweight and has a history of crumbling under adversity. Quarantillo is known for giving everyone a tough fight and has survived dangerous opponents like Spike Carlisle and Shane Burgos. He expects Quarantillo to overcome an early tough round and finish Hernandez later.

"I'm gonna go Billy quarantulo third round TKO Alexander Hernandez"
LOSS vs Shane Burgos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 193 of 288 67% 232 of 329 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Billy Quarantillo 0 164 of 349 46% 196 of 383 0 of 14 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 54 of 81 66% 68 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Billy Quarantillo 0 63 of 131 48% 81 of 150 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Shane Burgos 0 82 of 114 71% 85 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Billy Quarantillo 0 54 of 130 41% 57 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Shane Burgos 0 57 of 93 61% 79 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 47 of 88 53% 58 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 193 of 288 67% 133 of 219 32 of 37 28 of 32 162 of 252 30 of 35 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 164 of 349 46% 129 of 301 28 of 39 7 of 9 145 of 322 19 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 54 of 81 66% 37 of 61 8 of 9 9 of 11 53 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 63 of 131 48% 49 of 109 11 of 17 3 of 5 54 of 120 9 of 11 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 82 of 114 71% 55 of 84 14 of 17 13 of 13 71 of 100 11 of 14 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 54 of 130 41% 43 of 116 8 of 11 3 of 3 52 of 125 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 57 of 93 61% 41 of 74 10 of 11 6 of 8 38 of 73 18 of 19 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 47 of 88 53% 37 of 76 9 of 11 1 of 1 39 of 77 8 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, but acknowledges Billy Quarantillo as a live underdog. He notes Burgos's high volume, body work, and chin, but also his high strike absorption rate. He believes Burgos's takedown defense (89%) will be tested, but that Burgos has shown he can get back up. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more Burgos's body shots will pay off.

"i very narrowly am going to side with shane here because even though billy has the better striking stats at this point in his career shane's chin is still holding up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He notes Burgos's striking volume and power, while Quarantillo is hittable and may struggle to get takedowns. Brady acknowledges Burgos's durability and takedown defense, but also his recent knockout loss and short turnaround. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling won't be effective against Burgos, and the fight will be a war with Burgos winning on the feet.

win by decision
"i'll go decision i'll say shane burgos does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Burgos will keep the fight standing, chip away, and win a decision. He notes Quarantillo's cardio and toughness but doubts his power to hurt Burgos. He recommends Burgos by decision at +175.

Burgos by decision (+175)
"i got to go with shane burgos and if i'm trying to improve that line i go with burgos by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo as a plus 170 dog, fading Shane Burgos because Burgos fights with his hands down and hasn't learned his lesson. Levi believes Quarantillo is a dog who will capitalize on that weakness, and that Burgos's last fight against Edson Barboza was uncomfortable to watch. He notes that Quarantillo leveled up after the Gavin Tucker loss and ran through Gabriel Benitez. Levi expects a dogfight where Quarantillo thrives.

plus 170 dog
"give me billy q for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Jacob picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his grappling skills as a black belt and his body shots. He believes Burgos is no slouch on the ground and can handle Quarantillo's grappling. He thinks the fight could turn into a grappling match, but Burgos is well-rounded. He likes Burgos all the way, though he is unsure about the DraftKings price.

"i'm shane all the way you know at 9 000 i don't know if i love that 9 000 mark for for draftkings"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos by decision, believing his technical striking and movement will outclass Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Burgos' chin and durability should hold up. He considered Burgos' decision prop at +200 but thinks it's a sweat.

"i like shane burgos here i think his chin holds up his durability holds up and he showcases that he's the much better technical striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, seeing Burgos as the better striker. He notes Quarantillo needs to get the fight to the mat to win, but Burgos's takedown defense should keep it standing. He doesn't love the price but thinks Burgos wins.

"i was kind of seeing it the same way didn't really love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The Guru picks Shane Burgos, citing his reach advantage and improved grappling defense. He believes Burgos will pick Quarantillo apart at range with body shots and leg kicks, and that Quarantillo lacks the power to KO Burgos. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision, with Burgos winning two rounds clearly.

"I'm gonna go shane burgos here."
TKO (punches) R3 3:40 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 1 57 of 110 51% 67 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:50
Gabriel Benítez 1 100 of 156 64% 179 of 259 3 of 7 42% 1 0 8:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:15
Gabriel Benítez 1 25 of 38 65% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:30
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Gabriel Benítez 0 53 of 79 67% 72 of 104 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:58
3 Billy Quarantillo 1 22 of 39 56% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 39 56% 47 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 57 of 110 51% 38 of 89 13 of 15 6 of 6 44 of 89 6 of 9 7 of 12
Gabriel Benítez 100 of 156 64% 73 of 126 20 of 23 7 of 7 61 of 107 11 of 12 28 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 12 of 26 46% 7 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 25 of 38 65% 17 of 30 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 17
2 Billy Quarantillo 23 of 45 51% 14 of 34 7 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 53 of 79 67% 39 of 62 11 of 14 3 of 3 35 of 58 8 of 9 10 of 12
3 Billy Quarantillo 22 of 39 56% 17 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 17 of 33 1 of 1 4 of 5
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 39 56% 17 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 29 2 of 2 8 of 8
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody is confident in Gabriel Benítez, citing his physical strength, advanced striking, and leg kicks. He believes Billy Quarantillo's lack of strength and power will be exposed, as seen in the Gavin Tucker fight. Cody thinks Benítez's pressure and durability will overwhelm Quarantillo, and he expects a finish or a clear decision.

under 2.5 rounds (plus money)
"I think the line was missed really i mean if you could get gabriel benitez at that opener at plus 115 that was the move."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul is picking against his favorite Billy Quarantillo for the first time. He notes that Benítez is a brick wall with superior strength and striking, and that Quarantillo's cardio and heart won't be enough against a physically stronger opponent. He expects Benítez to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I hate picking against him this will be officially the first time that i do so if he proves me wrong well that's billy doing his thing."
LOSS vs Gavin Tucker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 106 of 166 63% 123 of 183 7 of 13 53% 0 0 5:14
Billy Quarantillo 0 84 of 178 47% 136 of 233 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 38 of 63 60% 43 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 33 of 69 47% 44 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Gavin Tucker 0 53 of 76 69% 58 of 81 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 69 55% 43 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 27 55% 22 of 34 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:58
Billy Quarantillo 0 13 of 40 32% 49 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 106 of 166 63% 68 of 122 31 of 37 7 of 7 71 of 122 32 of 41 3 of 3
Billy Quarantillo 84 of 178 47% 45 of 127 33 of 44 6 of 7 55 of 138 29 of 35 0 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 38 of 63 60% 17 of 41 17 of 18 4 of 4 23 of 47 15 of 16 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 33 of 69 47% 18 of 48 12 of 18 3 of 3 25 of 58 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Gavin Tucker 53 of 76 69% 39 of 59 12 of 15 2 of 2 36 of 53 15 of 21 2 of 2
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 69 55% 20 of 48 16 of 19 2 of 2 25 of 56 13 of 13 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 15 of 27 55% 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 13 of 40 32% 7 of 31 5 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 24 8 of 11 0 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by decision. He likes Quarantillo's high output, durability, cardio, and ground game. He notes Tucker's 40% takedown defense and that Rick Glenn was able to take him down four times, which bodes well for Quarantillo's wrestling.

"give me corn to you by decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel is high on Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and cardio. He questions Tucker's chin and heart, and thinks Quarantillo will walk him down and possibly finish him. He notes Quarantillo is in his prime and has paid his dues.

possible finish
"i'm gonna go with billy q uh to come out here and possibly finish gavin tucker but regardless i'm picking uh bq to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is the more technical striker with better speed and should be able to outpoint Quarantillo. Quarantillo's pressure style may be neutralized by Tucker's movement and body work. Tucker's jiu-jitsu is also high level, so he can hold his own on the ground. The line is a pick'em, but Tucker is the better all-around fighter.

Tucker via decision; over 1.5 rounds
"i think gavin is just a better better all-around fighter... i'll go with gavin tucker to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo in a close fight, noting Quarantillo's youth, size, range, and submission defense. He believes Quarantillo gets better as the fight goes on and will win a 29-28 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Gavin Tucker's grappling but thinks Quarantillo can survive the first round and take over.

"i'm gonna go with billy quarantilo getting the job done building as the fight goes on earning himself a 29-28 close competitive unanimous decision"
Damon Jackson - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punch) R2 4:13 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 34 of 74 45% 40 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Damon Jackson 0 36 of 100 36% 38 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 45 28% 13 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dan Ige 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Damon Jackson 0 23 of 55 41% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 34 of 74 45% 17 of 54 13 of 15 4 of 5 28 of 65 6 of 9 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 36 of 100 36% 22 of 81 10 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 92 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 21 of 45 46% 13 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 45 28% 7 of 37 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 13 of 29 44% 4 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 23 of 55 41% 15 of 44 6 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 50 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Dan Ige's tough competition but Jackson's relentless grappling and recent win streak. He mentions Jackson's takedowns and pressure could be key, but Ige's striking and durability make it close. He respects Jackson's run and picks him until he loses.

"I'm gonna respect the run that Damon Jackson is on ... I'm gonna pick him for this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady is confident in Dan Ige, viewing this as a massive step down in competition for Ige after facing top-10 opponents. He believes Ige has a clear striking advantage and power to finish, noting that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses. He expects Ige to land a body shot knockout in the second round, as Jackson's striking defense is poor and he leaves openings to the body. He also mentions that Ige's takedown defense is adequate and that Jackson's path to victory via grappling is unlikely.

Ige by second round knockout
"I like ige here I like him to knock out Damon Jackson probably a nice body shot there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody agrees with Ige, emphasizing his durability and striking advantage. He notes Jackson's low output and that Ige has fought much tougher competition. He expects Ige to pressure forward and land big shots, while Jackson needs early takedowns to win.

"ige is insanely insanely durable he's going the full 15 against some of the best in the division and I think if this fight stays on the feet it's not even remotely competitive"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige because he is a technically better fighter almost everywhere, with notable durability and a good chin. He notes that Ige has shown continual improvement in his striking and counter-punching, and that Jackson's chaotic style often leaves him open to being hurt. Connor also points out that Ige is well-rounded and has matured, avoiding the second-round fatigue that plagued him earlier in his career.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Connor notes the odds are nearly even despite Ige's tougher competition.
"I'm picking you, Gay, but I'm interested. I'm interested to see this because David Jackson. David Jackson hasn't earned the fight either."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob picks Damon Jackson despite bias against him for beating Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Dan Ige is the better overall fighter but respects Jackson's run. He notes Jackson's grappling and toughness, and Ige's durability. He is not betting on the fight due to closeness.

"I'm going Damon Jackson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Ige, noting his durability and experience against elite competition (Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett). He believes Ige's striking volume and wrestling will outwork Jackson, who has shown low output and reliance on takedowns. He parlayed Ige with Umar and Rębecki at +167.

Parlayed with Umar and Rębecki at +167
"I'm gonna take the shot on 50K Danny yeah I already did take the shot on uh Danny guy I parlayed him with uh cousin Umar and uh Rebecca"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige because he is a well-rounded fighter with good durability and has shown improvements in his striking. He notes that Jackson's chaotic style can create opportunities but Ige's experience against top competition and his ability to handle tough fights make him the safer pick. Zane also mentions that Ige's past conditioning issues seem to have been resolved.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Zane thinks Ige should be a healthy favorite.
"I think he is really matured and gotten really comfortable in the cage no matter what happens. So easy Danny Gay pick in a fight that nonetheless I think is reasonably compelling for what it is."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs Dan Argueta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 53 60% 47 of 71 2 of 4 50% 1 1 10:25
Dan Argueta 0 27 of 59 45% 103 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:14
Dan Argueta 0 0 of 0 --- 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
2 Damon Jackson 0 9 of 10 90% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Dan Argueta 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
3 Damon Jackson 0 23 of 43 53% 32 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Dan Argueta 0 22 of 48 45% 43 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 5 of 5 8 of 8
Dan Argueta 27 of 59 45% 24 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 42 10 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 5
Dan Argueta 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Damon Jackson 23 of 43 53% 16 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3
Dan Argueta 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 78 41% 51 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 54 40% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 31 of 77 40% 36 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 53 41% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damon Jackson 0 1 of 1 100% 15 of 20 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:38
Kamuela Kirk 0 0 of 1 0% 37 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 78 41% 22 of 61 9 of 16 1 of 1 27 of 68 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 54 40% 14 of 43 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 49 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 31 of 77 40% 21 of 60 9 of 16 1 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 53 41% 14 of 42 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.

"i am going to take a chance i'm going with damon jackson here and i just hope he's diving at legs that whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.

second round submission
"i'm gonna take damon jackson to win i'm gonna take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.

"i'm going to lean with the younger hungrier guy to to just kind of out hustle down the stretch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.

Jackson via decision at plus 205 is the official prediction.
"I'm going to go Damon Jackson. I do think that this will be quite a back and forth fight. ... I see Jackson kind of controlling him for the majority of this fight and winning it via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with kamuela kirk i'm going against the online experts again here i'm going with cameuela kirk i think he's got a really good ground game on bottom"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"