UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 1"
Reach 62"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tatiana Suarez
2.95 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
1.58 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
4.41 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
6.37 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
5.58 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.1 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Tatiana Suarez
Moneyline
Caesars -370
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetRivers +128
Decision
FanDuel +300
Jéssica Andrade
Moneyline
FanDuel +310
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +900
Tatiana Suarez - Fight History
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Submission R2 2:29 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 12 of 26 46% 56 of 77 3 of 3 100% 1 0 5:12
Loopy Godinez 0 18 of 25 72% 25 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 13 53% 50 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:39
Loopy Godinez 0 17 of 22 77% 23 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:33
Loopy Godinez 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 12 of 26 46% 4 of 14 8 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 14 5 of 5 6 of 7
Loopy Godinez 18 of 25 72% 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 6 of 6 10 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 13 53% 4 of 7 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 7
Loopy Godinez 17 of 22 77% 15 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 5 10 of 13
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 13 38% 0 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 9 4 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana Suarez despite finding her boring, citing her dominant wrestling and predictability. He acknowledges Loopy Godinez's skills and striking but criticizes her low fight IQ and poor decisions. He believes Loopy could win if she sticks to striking but expects her to make mistakes and end up on her back.

"If I was picking off only actual skills, Loopy's the pick, but I got to factor in the brain. So, unless I see footage of Loopy at a Kumon tutoring center, the pick's going to have to be Tatiana."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady is worried about Tatiana Suarez after her poor performances against Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, noting she gassed and couldn't get dominant positions. He thinks Loopy Godinez has good takedown defense and superior striking with volume and boxing. He expects a close split decision and leans Godinez.

decision
"I'm going to lean with the dog here in Loopy Godinez to get it done. I'll take her to get it done by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Godinez, citing Suarez's injuries, layoffs, and declining wrestling. He thinks Godinez's scrambling, boxing, and volume will earn her a decision win.

"I'm going to go the other way here. Take Loopy... I think Lupy's going to be landing the shots... she's going to edge out this decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor picks Suarez over three rounds, citing her superior wrestling and size. He notes that Suarez will get Godinez down and control her, as Godinez is also a wrestler but not at Suarez's level. He mentions that the fight should be five rounds to see if Godinez can survive and force Suarez to gas, but over three rounds it's a foregone conclusion.

Odds too wide; Suarez opened -225 now -150, Godinez opened +190 now +130. Should be -300/-400.
"I got to pick Suarez over three rounds to beat Lupita Godinas. She's just going to start too strong and Godinas isn't to finish her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez as an underdog, believing that Tatiana Suarez is in decline after injuries and poor performances. He thinks Godinez's wrestling can keep the fight standing and that she has better striking. He acknowledges Godinez's questionable in-fight decisions but sees value at plus money.

"I'm going to go Loopy sprawl and brawl keep this fight standing. She's got the wrestling to keep this standing. She's got better hands than Tatiana."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel believes Suarez is on a decline due to injuries and age, while Godinez has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and better hands. He picks Godinez to win by decision.

"I'm going to pick Lupy Godz to come out here and get this upset. Most likely unanimous decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

James picks the underdog Godinez, fading Suarez for the third time. He believes Suarez has declined and that Godinez can win a striking battle, though he acknowledges Suarez's size and fight IQ advantages.

"I am actually going to pick her to defeat Suarez as the underdog again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the best wrestler in the division and should dominate Godinez on the ground. Godinez has a slight striking edge but her wrestling is not at Suarez's level. Suarez's size and reach advantage will help her close distance for takedowns. She can grind out a decision or find a submission. The line is surprisingly low for Suarez, offering value.

Suarez wins by decision
"I like Suarez here. ... I think Suarez will grind her out. I think she'll make it look fairly dominant as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul picks Suarez, believing her wrestling is still superior and she can control Godinez. He acknowledges her decline but thinks she has one more good performance.

"I'm going with Tatiana. Am I am I I do see, you know, since she came back from injury, frankly, I do see... I'm not picking against my girl Tatiana Suarez for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Tatiana Suarez, though he admits it's a questionable pick. He likes Godinez's scrambles and grappling defense, and thinks Suarez's stand-up is abysmal. He believes Godinez can eke out a 29-28 decision as a slight underdog, citing Suarez's injury history and potential 'loser energy' from her husband Patchy Mix.

"I'm going to go with Loopy Godinez. Um and I'm and I'm stupid for that."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, agreeing that she will dominate early and Godinez won't be able to finish her. He notes that Suarez's wrestling is too strong and Godinez's boxing isn't good enough to keep her off. He also comments that the odds are too slim and should be wider in Suarez's favor.

Odds too slim; Suarez should be -300/-400.
"I'll take Suarez as well."
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 53 of 87 60% 232 of 299 1 of 3 33% 1 0 10:54
Tatiana Suarez 0 12 of 36 33% 63 of 95 1 of 15 6% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 23 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:08
2 Zhang Weili 0 10 of 17 58% 52 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
3 Zhang Weili 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:44
4 Zhang Weili 0 7 of 7 100% 53 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:27
Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 19 84% 63 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:53
Tatiana Suarez 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 14 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 53 of 87 60% 32 of 56 16 of 21 5 of 10 29 of 62 11 of 11 13 of 14
Tatiana Suarez 12 of 36 33% 1 of 16 2 of 6 9 of 14 10 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 10 of 17 58% 7 of 10 2 of 4 1 of 3 4 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 19 of 42 45% 11 of 28 7 of 10 1 of 4 16 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 8 of 21 38% 0 of 7 2 of 5 6 of 9 6 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3
Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 16 of 19 84% 9 of 12 6 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 6 7 of 7 5 of 6
Tatiana Suarez 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be a level above Zhang Weili's. He notes that Zhang has been taken down easily by lesser grapplers like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio, as she has never gone 25 minutes, but thinks she will get a submission in the second round. He predicts a second-round submission.

"I'm going to say Tatiana gets it done here I'm going to say she gets it done by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Connor picks Zhang, citing her striking advantage and Suarez's questionable cardio. He thinks Zhang can use her kicks and movement to keep Suarez at range and tire her out. He notes that Suarez has never faced a five-round fight and faded in the third round against Nina Nunes. He also points out that Zhang has good takedown defense and can get back to her feet. However, he admits he could see Suarez winning if she gets top position early.

Same odds as Zane. Connor implies Zhang is a live underdog.
"I am going to go ahead and pick Zhang. I'd be happy to be surprised."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi mentions the co-main event where Zhang Weili defends her belt against undefeated Tatiana Suarez. He notes that the fight is a dead pick at -110 each and asks the audience whether they think Zhang Weili retains or if Suarez becomes champion. He does not express a personal opinion or pick a winner.

"This fight is currently a dead picker minus 110 a piece do y'all think it's an still Jan way Lee or do y'all believe in destiny and fate that Tatiana sorus will come out there and become the new UFC …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez's smothering wrestling and improving BJJ are expected to open up a submission opportunity. Zhang has the striking advantage but will struggle to stop Suarez's chain wrestling and strength. Zhang's wrestling has improved but not enough to overcome Suarez. The pick is for Suarez to find the neck and force a submission.

submission
"I have to lean with Suarez here with her smothering wrestling approach and her improving BJJ game which I think will eventually open up a submission opportunity for her"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez despite acknowledging Zhang's advantages in striking and cardio. He believes Suarez's wrestling will be the difference, as Zhang tends to tie up and Suarez is a better wrestler. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio and lack of five-round experience, but thinks she can get a submission or control on top. He notes that Zhang's best path is to jab and kick from range, but he doubts she will do that consistently.

Suarez opened at +137, currently -113; Zhang opened at -153, currently +101. Zane mentions that Zhang underdog odds might be a bettors' take because she is battle-tested.
"I'm going to stick with my pick, but the cardio aspect of it is worth being very, very suspicious."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 29 37% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jéssica Andrade 0 23 of 49 46% 25 of 51 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 27 40% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 23 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 23 of 49 46% 3 of 20 17 of 26 3 of 3 13 of 36 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 21 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 43 44% 3 of 18 14 of 23 2 of 2 9 of 30 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 6 66% 0 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

Parlay Suarez, under 2.5 rounds, win by submission
"Tatiana Suarez is -450 she should be minus one thousand I'm telling you parlay Tatiana Suarez now before the line takes off"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.

Suarez wins in round 1; Suarez by submission or TKO
"I think sephores goes out there and dominates andrage and finishes her in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.

Suarez by submission +125
"I see a plus 125 out there I haven't bet it yet but like that's how I see this fight playing out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.

Mentions that props like submission, TKO, inside the distance will be popular, but does not specify a bet. Also notes sharp action on Suarez.
"I do think that Tatiana is gonna get that final takedown where she where Jessica can't get up and whether it's ground and pound whether it's a the back and a rear naked chill."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.

inside the distance for either fighter
"I'm definitely picking Suarez and I'm gonna say she gets a submission in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.

inside the distance -150, under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind targeting the inside the distance around -150 or if you're just skeptical about the fight overall I don't mind the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.

Suarez by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm actually going to agree with you I think the rear naked choke opens itself up sometime late in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.

submission win before end of round 2; line opened -476, now -400; parlay piece
"I think that she'll probably end up submitting her uh similarly to the blanchfield fight before the end of the second round"
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 10 of 13 76% 37 of 43 2 of 6 33% 1 0 5:45
Montana De La Rosa 0 5 of 11 45% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 8 87% 26 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:26
Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 11 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:19
Montana De La Rosa 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 10 of 13 76% 0 of 1 8 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 5 7 of 8 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 8 87% 0 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I will just simply assume that she's gonna look like Tatiana Suarez and if she does she is going to get a fight where she gets to do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I gotta pick Tatiana Sargas I think she's gonna get the game she's gonna get the fight she wants she's gonna get the chances to take get the takedown she wants but this is all about how you know how …"
WIN vs Nina Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 75 of 142 52% 95 of 166 4 of 13 30% 0 0 8:16
Nina Nunes 0 48 of 99 48% 54 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 17 of 30 56% 28 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:38
Nina Nunes 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 25 of 39 64% 34 of 50 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:20
Nina Nunes 0 15 of 30 50% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Nina Nunes 0 30 of 63 47% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 75 of 142 52% 29 of 85 22 of 29 24 of 28 42 of 100 7 of 7 26 of 35
Nina Nunes 48 of 99 48% 31 of 66 15 of 26 2 of 7 39 of 89 4 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 17 of 30 56% 8 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 22
Nina Nunes 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Tatiana Suarez 25 of 39 64% 14 of 23 6 of 10 5 of 6 11 of 23 3 of 3 11 of 13
Nina Nunes 15 of 30 50% 9 of 19 5 of 7 1 of 4 10 of 25 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Tatiana Suarez 33 of 73 45% 7 of 42 9 of 12 17 of 19 29 of 69 4 of 4 0 of 0
Nina Nunes 30 of 63 47% 19 of 41 10 of 19 1 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Carla Esparza
TKO (punches and elbows) R3 4:33 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:04
Carla Esparza 0 82 of 98 83% 136 of 155 9 of 11 81% 0 0 12:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 1 0% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carla Esparza 0 34 of 41 82% 56 of 65 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:37
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:04
Carla Esparza 0 15 of 17 88% 31 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 4:11
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 40 82% 49 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 3 6 of 7 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 82 of 98 83% 64 of 77 15 of 18 3 of 3 6 of 11 6 of 8 70 of 79
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 34 of 41 82% 27 of 33 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 30 of 35
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 6 83% 1 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 5 of 5 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 15 of 17 88% 9 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4 4 of 4 9 of 9
3 Tatiana Suarez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 33 of 40 82% 28 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 2 31 of 35
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:44 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 9 22% 4 of 11 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 9 22% 4 of 11 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 6 of 8 75% 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 4 2 of 2
Alexa Grasso 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 6 of 8 75% 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 4 2 of 2
Alexa Grasso 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 90 of 287 31% 97 of 297 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Loopy Godinez 0 107 of 213 50% 119 of 226 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 18 of 83 21% 18 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Loopy Godinez 0 40 of 71 56% 41 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 15 of 63 23% 22 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Loopy Godinez 0 31 of 50 62% 40 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:31
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 57 of 141 40% 57 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Loopy Godinez 0 36 of 92 39% 38 of 95 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 90 of 287 31% 58 of 242 21 of 31 11 of 14 87 of 279 3 of 8 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 107 of 213 50% 91 of 195 12 of 14 4 of 4 94 of 195 11 of 16 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 18 of 83 21% 13 of 75 2 of 3 3 of 5 17 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 40 of 71 56% 31 of 62 6 of 6 3 of 3 39 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 15 of 63 23% 11 of 55 0 of 3 4 of 5 14 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 31 of 50 62% 26 of 45 4 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 40 6 of 8 2 of 2
3 Jéssica Andrade 57 of 141 40% 34 of 112 19 of 25 4 of 4 56 of 137 1 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 36 of 92 39% 34 of 88 2 of 4 0 of 0 32 of 85 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.

"Lepita has a giant grappling advantage and as long as she's not going strike for strike, power for power with Jessage, she should absolutely win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.

Godinez by submission, round 2
"I'm going to take Lupita and I'm going to actually take her to win this fight by submission. We'll say second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.

"I think she'll be able to get off on enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind this fight out and survive that third round to beat Andraj on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.

TKO round two; Andrade wins by TKO
"I'm going to go with Jessica Andraj getting this one done by TKO. I'm going to say Jessica Andraj TKO round two."
Submission R1 2:40 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 11 of 18 61% 27 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 11 of 18 61% 27 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 8 50% 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 11 of 18 61% 9 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 4 of 8 50% 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 11 of 18 61% 9 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)

Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.

Considering parlay with Mike Malott
"This should be Jasmine all day. This is a tailor made fight for her. A smaller girl who doesn't have great takedown defense. Jasmine should be able to come forward and grind."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.

Jasudavicius wins by submission in round 2
"I'll say second round submission for Jasmine. I think she's going to pound away at Andraj and eventually snatch at the neck."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.

Wins by TKO
"I believe this is a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian as I expect her to really stay away from the power striking of Andraj eventually work to get this fight to the ground."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jasmine Jasuda Vicious. She's been very very good recently in her career. She's actually been quite dominant recently in her career as well."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 50 of 140 35% 62 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
Jéssica Andrade 0 117 of 208 56% 119 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 74 44% 33 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Jéssica Andrade 0 37 of 69 53% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
3 Natália Silva 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 47 of 65 72% 49 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 50 of 140 35% 33 of 114 13 of 20 4 of 6 48 of 136 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 117 of 208 56% 67 of 151 38 of 45 12 of 12 106 of 197 9 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 24 of 56 42% 16 of 46 7 of 9 1 of 1 23 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 33 of 74 44% 14 of 53 12 of 14 7 of 7 32 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 11 of 37 29% 9 of 31 1 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 37 of 69 53% 20 of 47 15 of 20 2 of 2 32 of 64 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 15 of 47 31% 8 of 37 5 of 7 2 of 3 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 47 of 65 72% 33 of 51 11 of 11 3 of 3 42 of 60 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.

"Natalya Silva should win this fight she is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.

"I like Silva here to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva strikes her 2928 natala Silva could knock her out in theory as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.

"I think that stylistically speaking charging forward against Natalia with her movement with her accuracy with her speed sounds like a bad idea man... I'm picking her to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.

Silva by KO at +400 or better (sprinkle)
"my official prediction will be Silva by decision but I might sprinkle a little bit on that Silva KO prop if it's anything better than plus 400."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva wins it's the CF do model of the nature right women's MMA you want me to bet minus 300 against a former Champion the money line I really don't like"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.

"I'm going to go with Natalia Silva... she's really good on the back foot... I reckon she'll win the fight"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 3:15 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 4 53 of 107 49% 53 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Mackenzie Dern 0 49 of 114 42% 50 of 115 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 1 27 of 50 54% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 57 42% 25 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 3 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 25 of 57 43% 25 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 53 of 107 49% 27 of 76 7 of 9 19 of 22 43 of 90 6 of 12 4 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 49 of 114 42% 38 of 100 6 of 9 5 of 5 47 of 109 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 27 of 50 54% 10 of 29 5 of 7 12 of 14 18 of 37 5 of 8 4 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 57 42% 15 of 46 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 26 of 57 45% 17 of 47 2 of 2 7 of 8 25 of 53 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 25 of 57 43% 23 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0 24 of 54 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.

bet 1 unit at -177
"I'm going to trust McKenzie dur here I think she gets it done I threw a full unit on her at Min - 177."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.

Dern by submission in the first round
"Give me Dern, I think she does care and I think her ground game's really good and I'll say she subs her in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.

"I think D is the rightful fave minus 190 don't love it but um but yeah that's my pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.

Inside the distance recommended; notes Andrade rarely loses by decision.
"I think that McKenzie Dern is going to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.

knockout victory in round 1 or 2
"I'm actually going to be taking Andra for the upset in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.

"I actually agree... D is coming into her own and becoming a legitimate contender"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to go with McKenzie D getting a submission here over Jessica Andra in round two"
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 29 37% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jéssica Andrade 0 23 of 49 46% 25 of 51 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 27 40% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 23 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 23 of 49 46% 3 of 20 17 of 26 3 of 3 13 of 36 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 21 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 43 44% 3 of 18 14 of 23 2 of 2 9 of 30 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 6 66% 0 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

Parlay Suarez, under 2.5 rounds, win by submission
"Tatiana Suarez is -450 she should be minus one thousand I'm telling you parlay Tatiana Suarez now before the line takes off"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.

Suarez wins in round 1; Suarez by submission or TKO
"I think sephores goes out there and dominates andrage and finishes her in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.

Suarez by submission +125
"I see a plus 125 out there I haven't bet it yet but like that's how I see this fight playing out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.

Mentions that props like submission, TKO, inside the distance will be popular, but does not specify a bet. Also notes sharp action on Suarez.
"I do think that Tatiana is gonna get that final takedown where she where Jessica can't get up and whether it's ground and pound whether it's a the back and a rear naked chill."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.

inside the distance for either fighter
"I'm definitely picking Suarez and I'm gonna say she gets a submission in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.

inside the distance -150, under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind targeting the inside the distance around -150 or if you're just skeptical about the fight overall I don't mind the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.

Suarez by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm actually going to agree with you I think the rear naked choke opens itself up sometime late in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.

submission win before end of round 2; line opened -476, now -400; parlay piece
"I think that she'll probably end up submitting her uh similarly to the blanchfield fight before the end of the second round"
LOSS vs Yan Xiaonan
KO (punches) R1 2:20 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 12 of 32 37% 5 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 6 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 36 72% 12 of 22 5 of 5 9 of 9 23 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 12 of 32 37% 5 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 6 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 36 72% 12 of 22 5 of 5 9 of 9 23 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.

"right now the pick is going to be Jessica because she is the more dangerous fighter but frankly I might flip that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

Second round TKO prediction
"I like andrage to get takedowns here and get on top and finish yanja Nan in very brutal fashion so I like andrage second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.

"I'm kind of leaning towards she could pull it out but I don't know if I got the colonies just to straight up at that Underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.

"I got to take Andraj here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.

Andrade by ground and pound
"I think that the strength and the top pressure that Jessica Rings will be difficult for Yan to deal with that will allow Jessica to get into a dominant position start raining down big blows maybe even open up a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.

"andrage is going to be the pick for me but no bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.

TKO in round 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Jessica and Raj here ... I think she gets this one done by TKO in the second round to body shots and punches Against the Cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.

"So I got to take Andraj here."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:37 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 53 of 143 37% 56 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 51 of 120 42% 53 of 124 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 106 37% 43 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 44 of 100 44% 46 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 53 of 143 37% 28 of 107 5 of 16 20 of 20 50 of 137 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 51 of 120 42% 38 of 105 2 of 4 11 of 11 50 of 117 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 106 37% 22 of 80 4 of 12 14 of 14 37 of 100 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 44 of 100 44% 32 of 86 2 of 4 10 of 10 43 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 13 of 37 35% 6 of 27 1 of 4 6 of 6 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.

Two-unit moneyline bet at -150. Also mentions Andrade by decision at -120 but prefers moneyline.
"I think Jessica andrage absolutely gets this done I'm confident in Jessica andrage to get this done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.

Andrade by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'm gonna take Jessica andrage by my knockout... I think she gets it done the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.

Line movement noted: Blanchfield opened plus money, now +120 to +125. Cody considered early plus money on Blanchfield but missed it.
"I think you take a back class and you take Jessica and Josh prove a commodity much better Striker has fought these high level five rounds before... current line I take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.

"I'm gonna go ahead and assume that I can't expect an X factor due to the short notice... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.

"Jessica Andre is a better Striker she Stuffs the takedowns and Aaron blanchfield is absolutely in embarrassed in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.

Andrade wins by KO in round 3 or 4
"I felt pretty damn confident on the Jessica Andrade side... we'll see Andrade knock her out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.

Line movement: Blanchfield opened -175/-180, now -135. Paul says he'll likely add Andrade to his card after weigh-ins.
"I really struggled to get to Aaron blancheville particularly at this price... this line keeps moving I'm gonna be forced to jump in on Jessica on John."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO first round, odds: -200 (2-to-1 favorite)
"I think andraj is like going to shatter that beak of a nose on blanchfield's face"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.

Andrade opened at -190, jumped to -155, currently -142; Blanchfield opened +165, dropped to +127, currently +117. Zane notes the odds are getting shorter for Blanchfield, which he finds surprising.
"I gotta pick Androge. Yeah, you know, there's the outside edge of an upset potential... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

Parlay Suarez, under 2.5 rounds, win by submission
"Tatiana Suarez is -450 she should be minus one thousand I'm telling you parlay Tatiana Suarez now before the line takes off"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.

Suarez wins in round 1; Suarez by submission or TKO
"I think sephores goes out there and dominates andrage and finishes her in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.

Suarez by submission +125
"I see a plus 125 out there I haven't bet it yet but like that's how I see this fight playing out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.

Mentions that props like submission, TKO, inside the distance will be popular, but does not specify a bet. Also notes sharp action on Suarez.
"I do think that Tatiana is gonna get that final takedown where she where Jessica can't get up and whether it's ground and pound whether it's a the back and a rear naked chill."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.

inside the distance for either fighter
"I'm definitely picking Suarez and I'm gonna say she gets a submission in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.

inside the distance -150, under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind targeting the inside the distance around -150 or if you're just skeptical about the fight overall I don't mind the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.

Suarez by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm actually going to agree with you I think the rear naked choke opens itself up sometime late in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.

submission win before end of round 2; line opened -476, now -400; parlay piece
"I think that she'll probably end up submitting her uh similarly to the blanchfield fight before the end of the second round"