vs
+155 -175
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Roman Dolidze
3.19 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
32.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Phil Hawes
5.33 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.11 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Roman Dolidze
Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +525
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +420
Phil Hawes
Moneyline
BetWay -175
KO/TKO
BetWay +225
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +275
Roman Dolidze - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 34 29% 40 of 94 3 of 4 75% 0 0 7:07
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 54 of 99 54% 78 of 125 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Roman Dolidze 0 5 of 19 26% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 20 of 44 45% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Roman Dolidze 0 3 of 9 33% 28 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 18 of 26 69% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 10 of 34 29% 8 of 31 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 54 of 99 54% 18 of 52 6 of 12 30 of 35 51 of 92 1 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 16 of 29 55% 5 of 17 2 of 3 9 of 9 13 of 24 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Roman Dolidze 5 of 19 26% 4 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 20 of 44 45% 6 of 24 3 of 5 11 of 15 20 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Roman Dolidze 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 18 of 26 69% 7 of 11 1 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan because of his speed, athleticism, and striking advantage. He notes Roman Dolidze is a world champion grappler but doesn't always use his wrestling and has poor fight IQ. He is not betting on this fight because Roman can be dangerous on any given day and CLD is not a genius himself.

avoiding betting; Roman Dez inside distance no action bet screwed him last time
"I got to pick CLLD. I think the speed's going to be a big difference. I think the athleticism is going to be a big difference, but I'm not going to bet on this because I recognize how good Roman …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Big Brady confidently picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting that Duncan is seven years younger, much quicker, and has more variety on the feet. He points out that Roman Dolidze looked bad in his last fight against Fluffy Hernandez and doesn't wrestle enough (less than one takedown per 15 minutes). He thinks Duncan will pick apart Dolidze over 15 minutes and win a decision, as Dolidze is tough but unlikely to get the fight to the ground.

Christian Leroy Duncan by decision
"I kind of think Duncan's going to style a little bit here. Give me Duncan to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody agrees, citing Duncan's dynamic striking and Dolidze's susceptibility to speed. He expects a finish or clear decision for Duncan.

"I got Christian Leroy Duncan minus 500."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Connor picks Duncan but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight could be ugly. He notes that Duncan has a 'meme fighter' aura and can look like a killer in bursts, but lacks a clear idea of how to win rounds. Connor points out that Dolidze is a big, strong galoot who is happy to hold opponents against the fence. He thinks the odds are too wide and calls it more of a coin flip.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I don't understand what the odds are on this. Honestly, like Christian Leroy Duncan got out worked by Armand Petrosian... And like I would pick Roman Dolidze to beat Armand Petrosian."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel is high on CLD, believing his speed and athleticism will be too much for Dolidze. He thinks CLD will have a breakout performance and knock Dolidze out, giving him his first real knockout loss. He notes Dolidze's gas tank issues and CLD's improved fight IQ.

"I think that the speed difference here, Marlo, is going to be like, 'Oh, man. Like oh, shit.' And I think that Saturday night this will be CLD's breakout and coming-out performance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by knockout. He highlights Duncan's athleticism, speed, and recent improvements, while noting Dolidze is older and slower. He expects Duncan to land at will and eventually finish Dolidze.

"I think that Christian Leroy Duncan is going to have his breakout performance against Roman Lee."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Duncan is a favorable stylistic matchup for the British fighter. Dolidze is old, slow, and flat-footed; Duncan is fast, athletic, and accurate. Duncan should dominate on the feet and win easily. The price is too steep to bet, but Duncan should win comfortably.

Under 2.5 rounds is interesting; Duncan -3.5 fight spread at 1.50 is worth considering.
"I think he dances around Ledezma and lights him up in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

James picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he is the much better striker and will knock out Roman Dolidze. He notes that Dolidze is not a great wrestler and will struggle to take Duncan down. He thinks Duncan's dynamic strikes and clinch work will be too much.

"Christian Leroy Duncan is going to knock out Roman Ditz this weekend in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The host picks Christian Leroy Duncan by knockout but is hesitant due to the wide line. He notes Duncan's improved clinch game and knockout power, but warns that Dolidze's pressure and toughness could cause Duncan to break mentally. He expects Duncan to land big shots and get the KO, but advises caution.

"I'm going to go Duncan. Duncan by knockout, but just be a little bit skeptical about what Delise could potentially do to Duncan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul sees Duncan as the younger, faster fighter heading in the right direction, while Dolidze is declining. He expects Duncan to win by KO or decision.

"I'm going with CLD. Christian Leroy Duncan. It's exactly like you said. It's two guys headed in opposite directions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to finish Roman Dolidze in round two or three. He praises Duncan's chin, composure, and dynamic striking, noting he took big shots from Gregory Rodrigues. He criticizes Dolidze as a plodding, technical grappler who was outgrappled by Anthony Hernandez. He expects Duncan to win the low kick battle, defend takedowns, and land a brutal combination.

finish in round two or three
"I think he'll get a brutal finish over Roman Dizzy in round two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Zane picks Duncan but is hesitant, noting several ways the fight could be terrible. He believes Duncan is a better striker and has 70% takedown defense, which should be enough against Dolidze's poor wrestling. However, he worries that Dolidze's strength and clinch work could lead to a grinding fight. Zane sees Duncan's path to a showcase win but acknowledges Dolidze is a tough, strong fighter who can make it ugly.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I think I'm going to take Duncan, but like I said, I can see, like, three or four, three ways this fight could just be terrible."
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 111 of 220 50% 112 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 141 of 338 41% 141 of 340 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
4 Marvin Vettori 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 38 of 87 43% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 111 of 220 50% 72 of 173 8 of 11 31 of 36 110 of 218 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 141 of 338 41% 85 of 253 20 of 36 36 of 49 137 of 332 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 19 of 38 50% 8 of 26 2 of 2 9 of 10 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 17 of 52 32% 9 of 40 2 of 2 6 of 10 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 9 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 31 of 66 46% 18 of 50 2 of 3 11 of 13 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 22 of 34 64% 16 of 26 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 62 29% 12 of 50 2 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 21 of 43 48% 12 of 32 0 of 1 9 of 10 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 37 of 71 52% 24 of 51 4 of 7 9 of 13 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 29 of 60 48% 24 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 38 of 87 43% 22 of 62 10 of 16 6 of 9 36 of 83 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.

Win inside distance, decision no action (Roman Dolidze)
"I got to go Roman here. Roman has picked up the striking activity he's picked up the grappling activity he got the hair done up and I think he can get it done here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.

Vettori by decision
"I got to go vtori here... I think vtori wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.

"I do got him. I don't love the price, but five rounds is built for three round fight at this price. I'm thinking of the dog. I actually am five round fight. That's enough for me to go Fluffy's way. …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Connor mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to take Marvin Vittori still."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.

"I kind of feel like I should just because I'm picking like a plus 150 dog out right but I I'm not delusional and I know what the concerns are"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to replicate that result here as I believe his ability to mix it up in the clinch and land his improving striking approach should be able to shut down the overaggressive nature of Del's game look for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
Roman Dolidze

Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.

"I think it's deletes. He's shown more in the striking. Like I the biggest like he he absolutely crushed me against Victoria and there was nothing I could really say about it except for the fact that I really really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.

Dolidze is an underdog; predicted 48-47 decision.
"I'm actually going to go with Roman delzy over Marvin vtori... I'm going to say he wins this one 48 47 decision but if there is a finish I think it will go to delzy as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Zane mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to say to Lizzie just on that suspicion."
WIN vs Kevin Holland
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 51 of 93 54% 51 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 100 of 185 54% 103 of 188 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 48 of 73 65% 51 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
3 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 51 of 93 54% 27 of 67 4 of 4 20 of 22 51 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 100 of 185 54% 61 of 135 12 of 16 27 of 34 65 of 132 3 of 4 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 18 of 32 56% 6 of 19 3 of 3 9 of 10 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 22 of 52 42% 4 of 27 4 of 6 14 of 19 21 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 11 of 16 68% 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 48 of 73 65% 40 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 22 2 of 2 32 of 49
3 Roman Dolidze 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 30 of 60 50% 17 of 45 4 of 6 9 of 9 30 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

"I'm gonna go with Roman Dolidze... I think he can win the 20 pounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

"I really don't have a good read on this fight... for that reason I'll just go with Anthony Smith as the dog but I could see it realistically going either way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

KO prop at +275 mentioned
"I think Roman dedy first of all is gonna stuff any takedown that Anthony Smith throws his way and then second of all as you said he knocked out Jack her Manon... I think he's probably just gonna knock Anthony …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

"It's me obviously I'm not picking Anthony Smith... he has no Chin left... I can very easily see him knocking Anthony Smith out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Dolidze wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think that we see Del end up getting a finish here by breaking Smith and winning this fight probably in the second or third round but I'd say pass all around."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

"I do see merit in him at plus money... Anthony Smith will be the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

"I'm going to go with Anthony Smith... I think Roman delzy is actual dog [__]"
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 106 of 218 48% 106 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 71 of 192 36% 71 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Marvin Vettori 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 106 of 218 48% 60 of 165 8 of 13 38 of 40 100 of 212 6 of 6 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 71 of 192 36% 52 of 169 11 of 15 8 of 8 67 of 180 4 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 38 of 75 50% 24 of 60 2 of 3 12 of 12 35 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 29 of 71 40% 20 of 62 3 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 28 of 69 40% 11 of 48 3 of 6 14 of 15 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 16 of 50 32% 12 of 44 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 40 of 74 54% 25 of 57 3 of 4 12 of 13 37 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 26 of 71 36% 20 of 63 5 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 61 4 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vettori (-166), Dolidze (+140)

Round 1
In 2023, Vettori (19-7-1, 9-5-1 UFC) and Dolidze (14-3, 8-3 UFC) tangled in a main card match on UFC 286. The former ended up getting his hand raised on the scorecards, and for some reason, the promotion is running back this middleweight entanglement. Rather than a three-rounder, these two get five rounds to stretch out and ply their respective trades. Before Vettori gets to the cage, he remembers that he did not put on a groin cup. Vettori has to go back to the locker room to get it, resulting in an extremely awkward wait. Absent-minded or mind games, you be the judge. When they both take the cage, referee Herb Dean calls the fighters to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and elicit a fist bump, and the competitors oblige. It’s on with the show. Vettori on the outside measures his jab, and Dolidze returns fire with an axe kick that is well out of range. Dolidze reaches out with his right hand, and Vettori protects himself from it and gets off a low kick. Vettori goes to the front leg a few more times, and he checks one coming back his way. Dolidze rings his bell with a punch combo, as Vettori nods at his opponent after absorbing the blows. Vettori kicks twice low and then high with his foot, and Dolidze drives him back with a right hand. The two lean in and bang their heads together, and Dean sees it immediately and calls time. They take the necessary seconds to shake anything off and return to their distant striking engagement. Dolidze loads up on a big right that bangs into the raised guard, and he has a second come up just short. Vettori jabs and moves, but he does eat a right hand on the temple. Dolidze hammers home a low kick, and the two appear to clash heads again but there is no pause this time. Vettori uses low kicks to keep distance, while Dolidze is all firepower throwing big punches that cause him to slide off-balance. Vettori slips in and out with a sharp left hand, and Dolidze nods at him and swings back violently. Another axe kick from the Georgian goes wide, and Vettori splits the guard with a jab and a one-two. Dolidze responds with a short punch combination, and he sticks out a front kick for good measure. The Italian sneaks in a punch, but his leg kick gets checked as Dolidze smiles. Dolidze marches forward with a right hand, spinning through it with an elbow that brushes past his opponent. They trade kicks to the kneecap, and Dolidze races after him swinging for the fences. Vettori slides out of the way and clips Dolidze with a short right hook. Dolidze shrugs it off and loads up on his right hand, and Vettori is wise to it and a second that follows. Dolidze launches a head kick, and Vettori shoulder-rolls it to keep himself safe. Dolidze considers a level change, but Vettori no-sells it and gets back to boxing distance. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 2
Before the round begins, Dean goes over to Dolidze to inform him that he needs to stop pointing his fingers towards his opponent. Dolidze acknowledges him, and the round commences. When Dolidze darts forward, Vettori is out of the way safely. As Vettori slides in and out of range, Dolidze connects at the end of a right hand. Dolidze then pushes off and his thumb jams into Vettori’s eye, and Dean heavily sighs and calls time. There is no point deduction despite the stern warning seconds ago, with the rules more guidelines than anything. Vettori clears his eye quickly, and he wants to make Dolidze pay. They both crack one another with heavy right hands, and Dolidze’s face sports a wry grin. Dolidze tries again to spin for a strike, and this time Vettori closes the distance to shut him down. A third spinning back elbow from the Georgian ricochets off the guard, and they both reset. Both fighters crash together, and Dolidze gets the better of it with a clean right hand. Dolidze plants the ball of his foot on the torso, and he comes up short with his axe kick. Dolidze slaps the calf a few times with the instep of his foot, and Vettori swings with one heavier and wades out of danger as Dolidze fires off a front kick. A Vettori head kick is blocked, and he charges in but does not catch his man with anything. Dolidze kicks low, and Vettori throws high. Dean issues Dolidze another warning for his outstretched fingers, and they leap towards one another to engage and then back off after doing what they want to do. This fight is playing out almost exactly like their first bout a few years ago, with Vettori slipping in and out with more accurate strikes while Dolidze leans on power that occasionally connects. Dolidze gets off a leg kick, and Vettori strides forward and puts a one-two on the chest. A flurry from both men wraps up the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze

Round 3
Vettori leads off with his jab, and Dolidze reaches him with a big right hand and swings wide with a left. Vettori kicks his foe in the ribs, and Dolidze eventually pays him back with a similar strike. Vettori tries to sweep the leg, and he has his nose bloodied with a powerful strike. This angers him, and he unloads a fierce combination of fists that sends Dolidze squirrely. Dolidze stumbles, bumbles and fumbles his way towards the fence, and Vettori gives chase and starts pounding on him. The Georgian somehow manages to gather his thought and respond with a big right hand, winging it hard enough to make Vettori think twice about advancing without care. Vettori sticks his foe with a jab and follows with a left, and he shimmies out of the way when Dolidze tries to load up on him. One good right hand comes in from Dolidze, who follows with two head kicks that are blocked. The body kick that follows is much heavier and is not guarded against, prompting Vettori to press the action with a long left. Dolidze goes to the body with a pair of front kicks, and he takes a heavy kick to his calf. Dolidze pushes out a straight right hand down the pipe, and Vettori leans back to dodge the subsequent heavy left. Dolidze connects with a hefty leg kick that makes Vettori both smile and limp. Vettori ducks away from looping punches, seeing the fastballs aimed his way. The leg kicks are much more effective from the Georgian, who raps one off the lead leg and pursues a takedown. Vettori shrugs, not getting taken down, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 4
With the championship rounds reached, both fighters consider touching gloves but abandon it. Instead, it is Dolidze pressing the pace, loading up on power shots but largely missing the mark. Dolidze times a knee when Vettori ducks, and he beans the Italian with a destructive right hand that cuts him. Dolidze sees the blood leaking and grows in confidence, walking his adversary down and keeping his right hand cocked back ready for attack. Vettori peppers him from a distance as he shakes out the cobwebs, using his jab to keep Dolidze away. Dolidze swarms with three hooks, and the first lands while the other two hit air. Vettori slams his shin on the lead leg of his opponent, and Dolidze lobs bombs that whiz past the Italian’s face. When Dolidze uses a front kick to close in and swipe out a right hand, Vettori skips away and prods him with his jab. Vettori’s strikes are appearing more labored, and his movement is less quick, as Dolidze is able to trap him for a second to string several mighty punches together that splits open a cut on the bridge of Vettori’s nose. Vettori tries to strike back, and he walks straight into a spinning back elbow that lands on his neck. Both fighters smile after the strike lands, and Vettori comes at him with a one two and nods. Dolidze nods back. Dolidze tries an awkwardly angled leg kick, and Vettori laughs at him. The Georgian points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and then pitches out an axe kick that is leagues away from his intended target. Dolidze gets in a front kick, and Vettori clips him behind the ear. Both men score at the end of their punches in an exchange, and Dolidze snaps Vettori’s head back with a right. Dolidze unleashes another heavy right hand, and Vettori runs at him fists flying and connects with a thudding left at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze

Round 5
The combatants are so ready to get back to it, they start before the cage door is closed. Dean makes sure it gets shut first, and then lets the middleweights go after it. They proceed to brawl, with Dolidze landing flush and Vettori finally standing in the pocket and banging right back. Dolidze has a front kick slide off the cup, and Dean does not see it and tells them to keep going. Dolidze lets loose a hard right hand, knocking the Italian back and away from counters. Vettori drives a knee to the chin, and Dolidze bites down on his mouthpiece and slings wild hooks. Vettori keeps himself safe from most of them and bounces off the fence, only to be met with a front kick from either leg. The Georgian wraps a kick around the guard, and Vettori’s lunges are doing some serious damage to his foe’s face. Dolidze’s eye is swollen and bloodied, and he pays it no mind as he just wants to punch Vettori in the face. Lucky for him, Vettori wants to the same to Dolidze. They punch each other in the face. Again. And again. Dolidze mixes things up with a few front kicks, and one goes low and has Dean call time this time around. Vettori groans and takes about 20 seconds before being ready to go for broke. Dolidze kicks high three times, left, right and left, and he zips a fourth up that manages to get through the guard. Dolidze drills his man on the nose with a knee, and Vettori shakes his head at him. Dolidze’s kicks are the most effective weapons thus far, and as Dolidze kicks high and pushes off, Vettori claims he was poked in the eye again. It is not called, and Dolidze bears down on the Italian swinging with sheer power. Dolidze doubles up on head kicks, and even though it hits the guard, it still knocks him back a step. Another zooming head kick buzzes the tower, and they crash together with fists flying for one last engagement. Dolidze spins for a final elbow, and the match concludes. This rematch will likely lean towards the man who lost the first fight, setting up the UFC for a super-duper rubber match in the future. If they fight a third time, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.

bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Marvin wins I'm not betting actually I do have a bet and the BET's on Roman Romans leads inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.

maybe a prop will stick out
"I'm gonna go vittori to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.

Marvin Vettori by decision, Vettori over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I feel like Victoria's got him beat out everywhere... probably more of a decision kind of performance... minus 270 he doesn't sound great but some of these favorites you're gonna have to trust"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"Vittori is simply too meatheaded to lose to him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.

"I think the fight goes to the ground eventually Roman finds his sweep and finds a submission on this knucklehead fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.

"I really believe the avatory should have little to no issue in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.

Marvin Vettori by decision
"vittori by decision definitely has my interest this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.

Vettori wins by decision 30-27
"I'm gonna go with Marvin vittori over Roman the Lindsay here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"If Marvin Vittori collapsed every time he was outsmarted, you'd never make it out of bed."
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 47 of 79 59% 48 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
Jack Hermansson 0 25 of 54 46% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 25 of 40 62% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Jack Hermansson 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
2 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 38 55% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 47 of 79 59% 16 of 41 11 of 16 20 of 22 43 of 74 3 of 4 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 25 of 54 46% 23 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 38 1 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 25 of 40 62% 6 of 16 6 of 9 13 of 15 23 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Roman Dolidze 22 of 39 56% 10 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 21 of 38 55% 20 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.

Has a moneyline bet on Dolidze; notes short notice but Dolidze has stepped up before
"I like Roman Deliza here I got him at plus money I have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.

Hermansson wins by submission, round 2
"I think Jacker Manson is going to be the second one to ever finish Roma to Lindsay here... second round submission for Jack Romancing"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.

Hermansson by decision; Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he pushes a pretty decent pace and as he's getting a little bit older he realizes maybe not the greatest chin maybe not the most uh not the most power so why hang it in the pocket and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.

"I lean Jack but minus 190 is not a lean Jack minus 150 is Eileen Jack and actually minus 150 is where Vegas opened and I thought that was pretty appropriate so at this line I actually do think it's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll still go with her Manson as my prediction I'm gonna take the over two and a half likely as a bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think minus 200 is a pretty fair price on Jack romance in this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.

Hermansson by decision (29-28)
"I'm going Jack commandsum"
Phil Hawes - Fight History
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ferreria (-118), Hawes (-102)

Round 1
With 20 finishes across the 22 wins of Hawes (12-5, 4-3 UFC) and Ferreira (10-1, 1-1 UFC), this might be another occasion where judges can pull out their Game Boys. All of the losses of the two fighters have come by stoppage as well, so bettors looking at various unders very well might cash soon. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge of the middleweight affair that could end in the blink of an eye. There is no interest in the glove touch, with Hawes marching forward fearlessly and leaning back to get out of the way of a sudden head kick. Hawes flicks out a power jab, and he allows Ferreira to throw so hard that he stumbles. Hawes leans through a high kick and stuffs a takedown, but he absorbs a right hand from the Brazilian. Ferreira shoots in for a double, and he gets stood up and popped with a short right hook. Ferreira sits down on a right hand of his own, and Hawes absorbs it without flinching. Ferreira overswings again, and Hawes knees him in the chest. The power of “The Hulk” allows him to fling Hawes over his shoulder to put him down on the ground with emphasis. Ferreira lands on top of him in side control, where he presses down on his shoulder before lifting his arm to hack with an elbow. Ferreira stifles his man with top control, and he sits up to slug Hawes in the face with power punches. Hawes times an explosion to get up, and the two tie up and start blasting one another with uppercuts. Hawes backs off and intercepts an advancing Ferreira with a left hand, but Ferreira reaches him with his own straight left. Ferreira scores and eats one on the retreat, and he jumps with a knee that is feet away from his intended target. Ferreira lets go with a head kick that catches Hawes behind the ear, and the two land glancing power strikes. Ferreira buzzes the hair with another kick, and he follows with several big punches that hurt his opponent. Hawes shakes it off and tries to retaliate, but Ferreira grabs him and throws him to the ground. Ferreira lets him back up and gives chase, with a spinning back fist and a high kick that makes him topple over. Ferreira races in with his fists flying, and Hawes takes them on the chin. Hawes is in a bad way, and “The Hulk” is not about to let him off the hook even with mere seconds left in the round.
Ferreira unloads a straight left hand that collides with Hawes’ temple, and Hawes collapses to the ground. Ferreira hammers him with two hammerfists to completely shut the American’s lights out, and he pulls back during Tognoni’s intervention and lets out a bellow.
“The Hulk” exclaims that he is back, and Hawes comes to and is crestfallen about his devastating defeat.

The Official Result
Brunno Ferreira def. Phil Hawes R1 4:55 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo leans Phil Hawes despite his suspect chin, believing he is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling and athleticism. He fears Hawes will get caught striking with Brunno Ferreira, who hits hard. He hopes Hawes uses his wrestling to take Ferreira down. He advises not betting on this fight due to volatility.

"I am still going to Pi Phil I just have a soft spot for my highlevel wrestlers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady acknowledges Phil Hawes is better in every skill except durability. He notes Hawes has a questionable chin and has been knocked out brutally. Ferreira has power, and Brady fears Hawes will get caught despite likely winning early. He picks Ferreira by first-round knockout, unable to trust Hawes' chin.

first round knockout
"I'm GNA take Bruno Ferrera first round knockout H is probably looking good up until he's not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes despite historically fading him, because he sees a path to victory via wrestling. He notes that both fighters have similar power and durability issues, but Hawes has a wrestling background that could allow him to take Ferreira down and maul him. He admits it's a risky pick and expects Hawes might still find a way to lose.

"I'm gonna take Phil HW"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to knock out Phil Hawes. He praises Hawes's athleticism and skills but notes his weak chin, predicting Hawes will school Ferreira until he gets caught. Vreeland believes Ferreira's power and Judo background will be enough to finish Hawes, as Hawes has been knocked out repeatedly.

"I think Phil Hawes is going to look really good until Bruno Ferrera knocks him out unfortunately."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Brunno Ferreira is a BJJ black belt with power in his hands, but he was knocked out in his last fight against Nursulton Ruziboev. Phil Hawes has durability issues and has been finished in his last two fights, but he starts fast with explosive power. Both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, making this a coin flip. I lean slightly to Ferreira because I trust his durability a bit more, but this fight likely ends in the first round. I'm passing on a moneyline bet and might play the 'fight doesn't start round 2' prop.

Fight doesn't start round 2 (under 1.5 rounds)
"I'm going to go with faera and FAA by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira by first-round KO, noting that Hawes has a weak chin and Ferreira has devastating power. He believes the fight will end early, either by Ferreira knockout or Hawes taking him down, but he prefers the KO prop. He took the bet at +275 early in the week.

Brunno Ferreira KO round 1 +275
"I'm taking Bruno Ferrera ko1 plus 275"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, focusing on Phil Hawes' weak chin. He lists Hawes' KO losses to Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze, and Ikram Aliskerov, noting that one clean shot puts him out. He believes Ferreira can land at least five clean punches and one will knock Hawes out cold.

"I'm going to bet that Bruno FAA can land at least five clean punches on the chin of Phil hores in this fight and I think if he lands five of them one of them is going to put him …"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
KO (punches) R1 2:10 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Phil Hawes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aliskerov (-210), Hawes (+180)

Round 1
On home soil for the first time in his career, Hawes (12-4, 4-2 UFC) will have the full support of the New Jersey crowd at his back for this middleweight tilt. He welcomes Dagestan’s Aliskerov (13-1, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon in this preliminary affair, and finish rates of 69% or higher for the two men means that referee Gasper Oliver could be busy. There is a sporting glove touch, and Hawes leads the dance with a jab and a low kick. When Aliskerov looks to counter, Hawes goes over the top with a pair of sharp punches. Hawes jabs at the body and ignores one coming back at him so that he can let loose a high body kick. Hawes swings and misses with a few fastballs, and he cannot get out of the way from a leg kick from the Dagestan-based fighter. Hawes retaliates with one of his own, and he doubles up on it. When Aliskerov advances, Hawes greets him with a right hand over the top and a slamming kick to the liver. Hawes bears down on his man, sensing he might have some damage with the combo, and he repeats it to decent effect. Aliskerov backs off, and Hawes is on him with another ripping kick to the body. Aliskerov cracks his foe with a three-punch salvo, but Hawes gives him a couple punches right back. Hawes throws a body kick, and Aliskerov slips and drops to his knee. Aliskerov lets him back up, and the two start brawling. Aliskerov sneaks a head kick up that stings Hawes, and Aliskerov looks to follow it with a slashing elbow.
When Hawes dips down, the Dagestan native fires off a piston-like one-two that crashes perfectly into the chin of “No Hype,” and Hawes is out cold before he hits the canvas. Knowing his work here is done, Aliskerov does not follow his wrecked opponent to hammer any nails.
What a way to make your UFC debut, posterizing out a solid fighter with a blistering blow. Aliskerov maximizes his time on the microphone, calling out the heavily hyped Bo Nickal, while claiming that Nickal needs to take on someone from Dagestan.

The Official Result
Ikram Aliskerov def. Phil Hawes R1 2:10 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes but admits it's probably a bad pick. He bases his decision on Hawes' Division I national champion wrestling background and superior striking power and speed. The key question is whether Hawes can defend Aliskerov's relentless wrestling; if he does, he should win clearly. Angelo is concerned about Hawes' suspect chin and Aliskerov's non-stop pressure. He threw 0.2 units on Hawes at +175 for patriotic reasons, noting it's easier to finish a takedown than defend one.

0.2 units at +175 for America
"I'm gonna ride or die with American wrestling here Phil Hall's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but with low confidence, noting Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio. He believes Hawes has the wrestling to stuff Aliskerov's takedowns and the striking advantage. He predicts a first-round knockout for Hawes, but admits he's not betting this fight because Hawes is unreliable.

First round knockout prediction; probably not betting this fight
"I'm gonna pick Phil Hawes and you can never have confidence in in Phil Hawes honestly ever against anybody but I'm gonna take him to the stuff the takedown's here keep it on the feet and do the better work …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody sees Aliskerov as the pick but suggests live betting after the first round for a better price. He notes Hawes has explosive power but poor cardio and durability, and tends to fade. Aliskerov is a Russian grappler who can drag Hawes into deep waters. He expects Aliskerov to win by taking over in later rounds.

Over 1.5 rounds at even money; live betting Aliskerov after round 1
"I think -210 pre-flop yeah I would bet him because I think he's gonna win but I think we can get a much better price on that after the first"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor picks Aliskerov more confidently, arguing that Hawes' main problem is he doesn't think during fights and gets surprised. Aliskerov's pressure and grappling will force Hawes to think, which breaks his flow. He notes Hawes has not solved his core issue.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I feel pretty okay actually about picking Aliskerov. Phil Hawes just doesn't have it, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The host picks Ikram Aliskerov to win inside the distance, likely in round two. He believes Aliskerov's wrestling and cardio will wear down Phil Hawes, who has durability and cardio issues. He notes Hawes' only chance is an early knockout, but expects Aliskerov to take over as the fight progresses.

Aliskerov inside the distance, round 2
"I'm picking the Russian fighter to get his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov but is not confident enough to bet at -210. He notes Hawes has a wrestling background and power, but his chin and cardio are suspect. He thinks Aliskerov's path is to survive the first round and then take over.

"I think ikram is the side at minus 210 I don't know if I'm going to attack it from a betting perspective though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The Guru picks Aliskerov, citing Hawes' terrible chin and recent leg injury from Roman Dolidze. He believes Aliskerov will have a wrestling advantage as the fight goes on, targeting Hawes' compromised leg. He notes Hawes hasn't looked good since the injury and is 34-35 years old.

"I'm gonna side with ikramalisker of here I just think he's going to be smart to shoot on one of the legs and make Phil Hall's balance on the other leg"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Zane picks Aliskerov hesitantly, citing Hawes' tendency to get caught and his mindless flow state. He notes Aliskerov's pressure and takedown threat could break Hawes' rhythm. However, he worries Aliskerov's striking is limited and he may not be able to finish Hawes.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I'm going to pick him. I hate to do it, but got to happen."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
KO (punches) R1 4:09 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by decision, but expresses concern about Hawes' chin. He believes Hawes is the better fighter and will stuff Dolidze's takedowns and have success on the feet, but notes that Dolidze hits hard and Hawes has been knocked out before. He says Hawes should be the minute winner but cannot be overly confident due to durability issues.

Hawes wins by decision
"I'll go with Haws you can't be too confident in it because the chin but I do think he wins this fight I'll say he wins it by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody leans toward Roman Dolidze as an underdog, believing he can land a big shot in the clinch. He notes Dolidze's power and the fact that Phil Hawes has durability issues. Cody mentions Dolidze by knockout at +500 as a possible small sprinkle, but is not confident overall.

Dolidze by knockout at +500 (small sprinkle)
"I think the leads is gonna land like just once like I think he's gonna knock him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Connor picks Phil Hawes confidently, arguing that Hawes's single-minded offense and ability to recover from being hurt are key. He notes that Dolidze is not a good striker and relies on clinching and grinding, but Hawes has the strength to stall in clinch situations. Connor believes Hawes's recent improvements at Sanford MMA and his proven durability against tough opponents give him the edge.

"I'm Dave. I'm taking Phil. I'm happy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant due to Hawes' questionable chin. He praises Hawes' physical attributes, wrestling, and power, but notes he has been knocked out before. He expects Hawes to win unless he gets knocked out. He does not mention a bet.

"I'm gonna pick Phil Haas to win the fight but uh you know if he gets knocked out you know you can't act surprised."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, believing he should be the better striker with a quick jab and can withstand Dolidze's grappling. He acknowledges Dolidze's relentless pressure and scrambling ability but thinks Hawes can win on the feet. He mentions possibly looking at Hawes by points.

Phil Hawes by points
"my official pick is Phil Hawes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Hawes has improved his pacing and cardio, using grappling to grind out opponents. Dolidze is durable and aggressive, but Hawes is the better wrestler and should be able to control the fight. However, there are still questions about Hawes going the full 15 minutes. The decision prop at +210 is interesting but the moneyline is the safer play.

Hawes by decision +210
"the pick is Phil Hawes I'm going to be sitting back and just watching this one as a spectator but I think that Phil Haas is the side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul picks Phil Hawes, noting his improved cardio, wrestling pedigree, and recent smarter fighting. He criticizes Dolidze's low volume, poor ring IQ, and reliance on leg locks. Paul believes Hawes can stuff takedowns and win a striking battle, though he admits he rarely picks Hawes and may curse him.

"I honestly just feel like he's fighting way smarter these days he's gonna be faster he's going to be able to stop this the takedowns get this fight standing and just chip away at him or land something big"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes over Roman Dolidze, believing Hawes' strength and wrestling will prevent Dolidze from controlling him against the cage. He notes Hawes' improved striking in his last fight against Roman, where he showed great defense. He thinks Dolidze loads up his shots, making them easier to see, and predicts Hawes will finish Dolidze in the third round as Dolidze slows down.

"I'm going to be going with Phil Hawes here over Roman Deliza"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Zane picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant, acknowledging Hawes's tendency to get hurt and his single-minded offense. He notes that Hawes has lost only to good fighters and that Dolidze's style is clingy and boring, but Hawes's lack of defense and tendency to get chin-checked are concerns. Zane ultimately trusts Hawes's offensive output and durability recovery over Dolidze's grinding approach.

"I'll go with you. I'll pick Phil Hall's, which it sounds like you're doing."
WIN vs Deron Winn
TKO (elbows) R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 1 118 of 175 67% 126 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Deron Winn 0 32 of 111 28% 34 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 1 55 of 87 63% 56 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Deron Winn 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 63 of 88 71% 70 of 103 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Deron Winn 0 15 of 67 22% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 118 of 175 67% 99 of 152 17 of 21 2 of 2 89 of 138 14 of 18 15 of 19
Deron Winn 32 of 111 28% 24 of 101 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 100 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 55 of 87 63% 43 of 71 10 of 14 2 of 2 49 of 77 3 of 6 3 of 4
Deron Winn 17 of 44 38% 13 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 63 of 88 71% 56 of 81 7 of 7 0 of 0 40 of 61 11 of 12 12 of 15
Deron Winn 15 of 67 22% 11 of 61 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 59 1 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes despite acknowledging Deron Winn's superior offensive wrestling stats (almost 5 takedowns per fight, 52% accuracy vs Hawes' 33%). He compares it to the Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun fight, where the more talented fighter (Hawes) can lose if he doesn't initiate takedowns first. He notes Hawes is the better mixed martial artist but Winn has a clear path if he shoots first.

"i am gonna pick phil hawes here because he is the better mixed martial artist but there is a clear path for duron win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio, but believes Hawes is much bigger with a six-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage, and has 100% takedown defense to stuff Winn's wrestling. He expects Hawes to knock out Winn early, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think phil haas finishes the wrong win in that very first round so phil has first round knockout to kick off the banger of a card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes but is cautious due to Hawes' chin and cardio. He thinks Hawes' striking and power are advantages, and Winn's weight cuts and cardio issues are problematic. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see Winn's condition.

"i think he's able to maybe get the job done down the stretch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes confidently, stating Hawes has everything except a chin: D1 wrestling, one-punch power, and physicality. He believes Deron Winn is too short (5'4") and will struggle to take Hawes down. Levi thinks Hawes wins everywhere unless he gets knocked out, which is possible given his suspect chin. He expects Hawes to dominate and win, possibly by knockout.

Hawes -270; expects domination; Winn's only chance is a puncher's chance
"phil haas don't get knocked out and you win this fight literally everywhere it goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul leans toward Hawes but is not confident. He notes both fighters are untrustworthy and the fight could be ugly. He thinks Hawes' reach and power are key, but Winn's wrestling could be a factor if he makes weight.

"i don't know i i would say both guys are not trustworthy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes despite worrying about his weak chin, as seen in the Chris Curtis fight. He believes Hawes is much bigger and stronger than Deron Winn, who is too small for middleweight. He predicts Hawes will neutralize Winn's wrestling and land a knockout via a knee to the face in the second round.

ko in second round
"i'm going to be going with phil hawes here i worry... i do worry about his chin... phil gets a ko with a knee to the face in the second round"
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
KO (punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes, highlighting his wrestling, power, and improved cardio. He notes that Hawes turned down a short-notice fight earlier, showing he takes his career seriously. He believes Hawes should win by using his wrestling to control Curtis, who is a welterweight moving up. He also mentions that Curtis has poor takedown defense and fades against wrestlers.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"phil has power phil has the wrestling phil should absolutely win this fight but chris could potentially stick and move his way to a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis as a dog, citing his excellent cardio, technical boxing, and defensive wrestling. He notes Hawes is a fast starter who tires, and Curtis specializes in taking opponents into deep waters. He expects Curtis to win by late TKO, possibly round 3.

Curtis round 3
"we're going chris curtis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes to win, stating that Hawes is on a different level than Chris Curtis. He notes that Hawes has knockout power, D1 wrestling, and has improved significantly since his early losses. Levi believes Curtis's only path to victory is a lucky knockout, and that Hawes can win by decision or knockout. He mentions that Curtis is a welterweight moving up and that historically, Curtis loses to UFC-caliber opponents.

decision or knockout
"give me a phil haas for the dub"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, emphasizing that Curtis has awful takedown defense and is a pure boxer. He urges Hawes to wrestle rather than strike, as Curtis has real power. He believes Hawes will take Curtis down and get a TKO finish in the first round. He also likes Hawes in DraftKings for takedowns.

Less less on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"if you're phil halls just wrestle man just wrestle get your win get out of there... i'm telling you phil if you try to strike with this guy it could be a problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Hawes to win by decision, but he is not confident enough to bet him at -320. He notes Hawes gets hurt in fights and Curtis has knockout power. He considers a small sprinkle on Curtis round 3 at +1800-2500.

Curtis round 3 (+1800-2500)
"i'm gonna go phil haas to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Curtis as a dog. He mentions Curtis's story and motivation, and believes Hawes is vulnerable if the fight goes past the first round. He also likes Curtis round 3 as a prop.

Curtis round 3
"curtis round three as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The Guru picks Phil Hawes, citing his size, reach, and power advantages over Chris Curtis, who is moving up from welterweight on short notice. He notes Hawes' KO wins and believes Curtis is not ready for this matchup. The Guru predicts a first-round KO for Hawes.

first round ko
"I'm going to be going with phillip hawes here um i get you can pick chris curtis but it's not smart to do so."
WIN vs Kyle Daukaus
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 66 of 101 65% 157 of 210 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:34
Kyle Daukaus 0 28 of 82 34% 52 of 113 0 of 7 0% 0 1 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 22 72% 32 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:33
Kyle Daukaus 0 5 of 21 23% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:56
2 Phil Hawes 0 29 of 45 64% 48 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Kyle Daukaus 0 22 of 51 43% 30 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Phil Hawes 0 21 of 34 61% 77 of 106 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 1 of 10 10% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 66 of 101 65% 42 of 75 23 of 25 1 of 1 33 of 57 18 of 19 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 28 of 82 34% 20 of 68 6 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Phil Hawes 29 of 45 64% 15 of 30 14 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 22 of 51 43% 17 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Phil Hawes 21 of 34 61% 17 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 1 of 10 10% 1 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus

Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes

Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 31 of 54 57% 101 of 128 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:06
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 93 61% 87 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 24 66% 41 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Nassourdine Imavov 0 9 of 19 47% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 44 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:15
Nassourdine Imavov 0 16 of 25 64% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Phil Hawes 0 9 of 19 47% 24 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:13
Nassourdine Imavov 0 32 of 49 65% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 31 of 54 57% 13 of 31 7 of 9 11 of 14 23 of 42 7 of 11 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 93 61% 39 of 71 14 of 17 4 of 5 29 of 62 27 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 24 66% 5 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 8 11 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 11 4 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 6 of 11 54% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 16 of 25 64% 8 of 17 6 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 17 6 of 7 1 of 1
3 Phil Hawes 9 of 19 47% 5 of 13 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 32 of 49 65% 28 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 31 16 of 18 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi argues that Phil Hawes's early career was mismanaged, being thrown in with tough opponents too soon, but now he has matured and learned to pace himself. He highlights Hawes's D1 wrestling, one-punch knockout power, and improved defense. Levi believes Hawes will be too physical and explosive for Imavov, who fights with his hands down. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting that Imavov was pushed around by the smaller Jordan Williams.

first round knockout
"i'm going phil has to be a first round knockout"
WIN vs Jacob Malkoun
KO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun

Round 1
In a matchup that might seem out of place on the main card among other bouts containing top-ranked fighters, exciting prospects Hawes (8-2, 0-0 UFC) and Malkoun (4-0, 0-0 UFC) nevertheless make their UFC debuts against one another at middleweight. Watching on to see which one pans out will be referee Jason Herzog, and a respectful glove touch begins the fight. Hawes pushes the pace early, chasing after Malkoun and landing a few serious punches. A right hand hurts Malkoun, and “Megatron” smells blood and unleashes a thunderous barrage of strikes. When Malkoun falls back to the fence, a right and a left hook put the Aussie not just down, but out cold as he falls face-first to the canvas. What a way to introduce yourself to the organization in your debut, doing so on one of the biggest of stages imaginable in lightning-quick fashion. Wow.

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Jacob Malkoun R1 0:18 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes, citing his power and finishing ability (75% of wins by KO). He notes Malkoun's lack of experience (4-0) and that Hawes has faced better competition. He predicts a first-round knockout, but advises staying away from betting at -260.

first round knockout
"give me haws here you know seen him face some pretty decent competition i think better competition than malcoon here um i think he's going to get him out of there in that first round probably a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Phil Hawes based on experience and athleticism, noting that Hawes has paid his dues with tough fights against Luis Taylor and Julian Marquez. He questions Malkoun's level of competition, as he is only 4-0 against subpar opponents. Levi thinks it might be a dog-or-pass situation at the betting window, but as a pure pick he goes with Hawes.

Dog or pass situation; can't lay -240 on Hawes but picks him based on experience
"i'll slightly lean with the experience of phil haas and the athleticism but i wouldn't be surprised either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Phil Hawes but with low confidence, citing his athleticism and power. He notes that Hawes has cardio and durability concerns, while Malkoun is inexperienced. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go with my [ __ ] to win by tko in round two"
Expert Picks (9)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by decision, but expresses concern about Hawes' chin. He believes Hawes is the better fighter and will stuff Dolidze's takedowns and have success on the feet, but notes that Dolidze hits hard and Hawes has been knocked out before. He says Hawes should be the minute winner but cannot be overly confident due to durability issues.

Hawes wins by decision
"I'll go with Haws you can't be too confident in it because the chin but I do think he wins this fight I'll say he wins it by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody leans toward Roman Dolidze as an underdog, believing he can land a big shot in the clinch. He notes Dolidze's power and the fact that Phil Hawes has durability issues. Cody mentions Dolidze by knockout at +500 as a possible small sprinkle, but is not confident overall.

Dolidze by knockout at +500 (small sprinkle)
"I think the leads is gonna land like just once like I think he's gonna knock him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Connor picks Phil Hawes confidently, arguing that Hawes's single-minded offense and ability to recover from being hurt are key. He notes that Dolidze is not a good striker and relies on clinching and grinding, but Hawes has the strength to stall in clinch situations. Connor believes Hawes's recent improvements at Sanford MMA and his proven durability against tough opponents give him the edge.

"I'm Dave. I'm taking Phil. I'm happy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant due to Hawes' questionable chin. He praises Hawes' physical attributes, wrestling, and power, but notes he has been knocked out before. He expects Hawes to win unless he gets knocked out. He does not mention a bet.

"I'm gonna pick Phil Haas to win the fight but uh you know if he gets knocked out you know you can't act surprised."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, believing he should be the better striker with a quick jab and can withstand Dolidze's grappling. He acknowledges Dolidze's relentless pressure and scrambling ability but thinks Hawes can win on the feet. He mentions possibly looking at Hawes by points.

Phil Hawes by points
"my official pick is Phil Hawes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Hawes has improved his pacing and cardio, using grappling to grind out opponents. Dolidze is durable and aggressive, but Hawes is the better wrestler and should be able to control the fight. However, there are still questions about Hawes going the full 15 minutes. The decision prop at +210 is interesting but the moneyline is the safer play.

Hawes by decision +210
"the pick is Phil Hawes I'm going to be sitting back and just watching this one as a spectator but I think that Phil Haas is the side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul picks Phil Hawes, noting his improved cardio, wrestling pedigree, and recent smarter fighting. He criticizes Dolidze's low volume, poor ring IQ, and reliance on leg locks. Paul believes Hawes can stuff takedowns and win a striking battle, though he admits he rarely picks Hawes and may curse him.

"I honestly just feel like he's fighting way smarter these days he's gonna be faster he's going to be able to stop this the takedowns get this fight standing and just chip away at him or land something big"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes over Roman Dolidze, believing Hawes' strength and wrestling will prevent Dolidze from controlling him against the cage. He notes Hawes' improved striking in his last fight against Roman, where he showed great defense. He thinks Dolidze loads up his shots, making them easier to see, and predicts Hawes will finish Dolidze in the third round as Dolidze slows down.

"I'm going to be going with Phil Hawes here over Roman Deliza"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Zane picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant, acknowledging Hawes's tendency to get hurt and his single-minded offense. He notes that Hawes has lost only to good fighters and that Dolidze's style is clingy and boring, but Hawes's lack of defense and tendency to get chin-checked are concerns. Zane ultimately trusts Hawes's offensive output and durability recovery over Dolidze's grinding approach.

"I'll go with you. I'll pick Phil Hall's, which it sounds like you're doing."