Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
Career Averages - Livinha Souza
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Amanda Lemos
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 70 of 91 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 27 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 20 of 39 | 51% | 1 of 11 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 23 of 33 | 69% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 15 | 53% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 22 | 59% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.
Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.
The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 30 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.
Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.
Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:51 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 6:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.
Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.
Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.
Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 1 | 41 of 80 | 51% | 47 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 50 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 6:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 1 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 27 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 41 of 80 | 51% | 26 of 62 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 24 of 51 | 47% | 17 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 6 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.
Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.
Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.
Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.
Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 163 of 217 | 75% | 296 of 358 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 24 of 63 | 38% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 74 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 49 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 1 | 55 of 68 | 80% | 114 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 163 of 217 | 75% | 106 of 150 | 37 of 42 | 20 of 25 | 50 of 77 | 17 of 18 | 96 of 122 |
| Amanda Lemos | 24 of 63 | 38% | 19 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 44 of 55 | 80% | 36 of 47 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 52 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 20 | 80% | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 |
| Amanda Lemos | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 20 of 29 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 28 of 45 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 16 | 26 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 37 | 35% | 11 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 55 of 68 | 80% | 42 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 44 of 56 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.
Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.
Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.
Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Livinha Souza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 51 of 71 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 65 of 96 | 67% | 159 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 8:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 24 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 50 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 69 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randa Markos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Livinha Souza | 65 of 96 | 67% | 55 of 85 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 20 of 25 | 16 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randa Markos | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 21 of 36 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Randa Markos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 12 of 16 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | |
| 3 | Randa Markos | 6 of 16 | 37% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 32 of 44 | 72% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo sees this as a tough fight between two similar fighters. He notes that Souza likely has a striking advantage while Randa has the grappling edge, but neither is good off their back. He ultimately sides with Souza because he thinks she can be the bully and get on top, but he's not confident and won't bet on her at -300.
Big Brady leans toward Souza despite her poor performance against Amanda Lemos, citing Souza's takedown ability and Randa Markos's 52% takedown defense. He expects the fight to play out on the mat where Souza can control and win a decision. However, he admits low confidence due to both fighters' low level and recommends no bet on this fight.
Cody leans towards Randa Markos as an underdog. He notes that Souza has looked awful in the UFC, quitting in her last fight, while Markos has fought only top competition and never quits. Cody believes Markos's grinding style and durability will be too much for Souza, who seems to lack heart. He sees this as a dogger pass and takes the underdog.
Lock picks Markos based on volume and activity. He notes Souza has poor striking output and Markos will outwork her. He expects Markos to win by decision, as she is unlikely to finish. He acknowledges Markos' low fight IQ but thinks she can win.
Paul does not make a pick, asking for Cody's blessing before betting. He notes that Souza has burned him before and that Markos's style may not be favored by judges. Paul seems uncertain and does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza, arguing that she is undervalued due to her looks. He highlights her tough competition and believes Randa Markos has lost motivation. He predicts Souza will win by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Livinha Souza | 2 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Livinha Souza | 2 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 29 of 46 | 63% | 22 of 37 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 29 of 46 | 63% | 22 of 37 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 24 |
Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos, citing her high volume striking (nearly 6 significant strikes per minute) and superior speed. He notes Souza is low volume and unimpressive on tape. He acknowledges both are black belts but favors Lemos on the feet and on top. He predicts a decision win because Souza is durable and has never been finished.
Daniel picks Amanda Lemos, citing her size advantage from dropping two weight classes and her pressure style. He acknowledges Livinha Souza's jiu-jitsu threat but believes Lemos' speed and power will be too much, though he notes potential gas tank issues due to the weight cut.
Lemos has better striking and power, and her cardio holds up well. Souza slows down in later rounds and has questionable durability. The host expects Lemos to keep the fight on the feet and pick Souza apart, predicting a third-round TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza as an underdog. He cites her more experience, younger age, and better competition. He believes Souza will win by decision, noting that Lemos has not fought anyone good and is older at 33. He sees value in Souza as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 32 of 114 | 28% | 89 of 176 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 70 of 95 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 20 of 72 | 27% | 27 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ashley Yoder | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 29 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 32 of 114 | 28% | 23 of 92 | 6 of 14 | 3 of 8 | 32 of 112 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 46 of 70 | 65% | 15 of 33 | 8 of 11 | 23 of 26 | 36 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Livinha Souza | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 13 of 18 | 72% | 3 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Livinha Souza | 20 of 72 | 27% | 15 of 61 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 20 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ashley Yoder | 23 of 33 | 69% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 17 | 21 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady thinks Souza is faster and more active, with better takedowns. He expects her to win a decision but acknowledges Yoder could make it close. He is not very confident and notes the line should be closer.
Daniel Levi picks Livinha Souza to win. He believes Souza is the tougher fighter and will win the extra scrambles when both are fatigued. He notes that Yoder has a history of folding in gritty fights and doesn't utilize her length well. He also mentions that Souza has better boxing and jiu-jitsu, and that Yoder's path to victory requires a perfect performance.
Yoder has the reach and height advantage, decent takedown defense, and is crafty on the ground. Souza has been reversed and put in compromising positions in past fights. Yoder can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the mat. The fight will be close and likely go to a decision; Yoder is the value side at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Ashley Yoder, emphasizing her significant reach advantage (6.5 inches) and size. He dismisses Souza's record as built on weak competition and notes Yoder's experience against better opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brianna Fortino | 0 | 23 of 66 | 34% | 30 of 73 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 72 of 187 | 38% | 88 of 204 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brianna Fortino | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 27 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 | |
| 2 | Brianna Fortino | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 36 of 93 | 38% | 37 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Brianna Fortino | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 4 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brianna Fortino | 23 of 66 | 34% | 8 of 43 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 56 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 72 of 187 | 38% | 48 of 151 | 15 of 23 | 9 of 13 | 51 of 151 | 17 of 31 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brianna Fortino | 12 of 23 | 52% | 4 of 11 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Livinha Souza | 19 of 54 | 35% | 12 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 38 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Brianna Fortino | 7 of 26 | 26% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 36 of 93 | 38% | 26 of 80 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 80 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brianna Fortino | 4 of 17 | 23% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Livinha Souza | 17 of 40 | 42% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 23 of 65 | 35% | 75 of 118 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Sarah Frota | 0 | 32 of 90 | 35% | 78 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 28 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Sarah Frota | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 2 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 5 of 29 | 17% | 34 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Sarah Frota | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sarah Frota | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 23 of 65 | 35% | 14 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 15 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 16 |
| Sarah Frota | 32 of 90 | 35% | 23 of 72 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 23 of 80 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 11 of 16 | 68% | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Sarah Frota | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Livinha Souza | 5 of 29 | 17% | 4 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 |
| Sarah Frota | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Livinha Souza | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sarah Frota | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Alex Chambers | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Alex Chambers | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livinha Souza | 10 of 18 | 55% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
| Alex Chambers | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Livinha Souza | 10 of 18 | 55% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
| Alex Chambers | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos, citing her high volume striking (nearly 6 significant strikes per minute) and superior speed. He notes Souza is low volume and unimpressive on tape. He acknowledges both are black belts but favors Lemos on the feet and on top. He predicts a decision win because Souza is durable and has never been finished.
Daniel picks Amanda Lemos, citing her size advantage from dropping two weight classes and her pressure style. He acknowledges Livinha Souza's jiu-jitsu threat but believes Lemos' speed and power will be too much, though he notes potential gas tank issues due to the weight cut.
Lemos has better striking and power, and her cardio holds up well. Souza slows down in later rounds and has questionable durability. The host expects Lemos to keep the fight on the feet and pick Souza apart, predicting a third-round TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza as an underdog. He cites her more experience, younger age, and better competition. He believes Souza will win by decision, noting that Lemos has not fought anyone good and is older at 33. He sees value in Souza as an underdog.
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