Career Averages - Trevin Jones
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
Trevin Jones
Mario Bautista
Trevin Jones - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 26 of 33 | 78% | 33 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 30 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 17 of 19 | 89% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 26 of 33 | 78% | 8 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Trevin Jones | 20 of 69 | 28% | 9 of 50 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 17 of 19 | 89% | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 7 of 24 | 29% | 1 of 13 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Trevin Jones | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Trevin Jones | 11 of 36 | 30% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt because he is the better fighter everywhere, but he is not betting on him due to his questionable chin. He notes that Garbrandt dominates until he gets hit, and Trevin Jones has real power. Angelo hopes Garbrandt can have a resurgence like Glover Teixeira.
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt but is hesitant due to his chin issues. He notes Garbrandt is the much better fighter with speed, volume, and wrestling, but his durability is a major concern. He acknowledges Trevin Jones has power and has never been knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Garbrandt, but admits a knockout loss wouldn't be surprising.
Cody picks Garbrandt but is very hesitant due to his compromised chin. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and technical boxing give him the edge, and that Jones's low volume and lack of setup make him less dangerous. He expects Garbrandt to win by decision if he fights smart.
Connor picks Trevin Jones because he doubts Cody Garbrandt's ability to stick to a disciplined, low-risk gameplan. He notes that Garbrandt has never shown he can fight a patient, three-round kickboxing match without getting frustrated and aggressive, which plays into Jones's counter-punching strengths. Connor also points out that Garbrandt's durability has declined, making him vulnerable to getting caught and finished.
Jacob picks Cody Garbrandt as the better fighter but is wary of his chin and tendency to load up. He believes Garbrandt should use a point-fighting strategy and mix in takedowns. Jacob will not bet on Garbrandt and needs to see him prove his chin again.
Garbrandt has a huge technical striking advantage and should be able to beat Jones to the punch. However, his durability is a major concern and Jones has power. Garbrandt likely wins by second round KO or decision, but it's stressful to bet on him as a favorite.
Paul has a small sprinkle on Garbrandt by decision at +500. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and smart game plan could lead to a decision win, but acknowledges the chin risk. He says it's a dicey bet and he's prepared to lose.
The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones as an underdog, citing Garbrandt's inactivity, multiple KO losses, and tendency to get caught. He believes Jones can catch Garbrandt on the chin and win by KO.
Zane also picks Trevin Jones, agreeing with Connor that Garbrandt's mental fragility and tendency to make mistakes under pressure make him unreliable. He emphasizes that Jones is tough, has good timing, and can capitalize on Garbrandt's lapses. Zane notes that while Garbrandt has the tools to win if he fights smart, history suggests he will revert to aggression and get caught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 1 | 73 of 119 | 61% | 119 of 171 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 7:07 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 11 of 57 | 19% | 15 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 33 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 1 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 48 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 73 of 119 | 61% | 51 of 95 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 41 |
| Trevin Jones | 11 of 57 | 19% | 5 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 |
| Trevin Jones | 4 of 18 | 22% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 24 of 40 | 60% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 21 |
| Trevin Jones | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 35 of 56 | 62% | 25 of 45 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 14 |
| Trevin Jones | 5 of 27 | 18% | 3 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot features two men that could really use a win to turn things around. Both Barcelos (16-3, 5-2 UFC) and Jones (13-8, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) have lost two fights in a row, which means that one man’s losing streak will be coming to an end in the next 15 minutes. The bantamweights calmly walk forward without touching gloves in front of referee Keith Peterson, and there are no fans in the building nor is there any nonsense. It takes 20 seconds for either fighter to engage, with a head kick coming from the Brazilian to lead things off. Jones responds with a swinging punch, and Barcelos is quicker with a few short strikes. Jones kicks low, and the two feint and fake at one another until a front kick from Barcelos impacts on the body. Another head kick gets blocked by Jones, and Barcelos spams a third to end up hitting air. Barcelos charges in forward for a takedown, and Jones gets pushed into the wall but ultimately prevents himself from getting grounded. Barcelos releases him and resets, and he unloads a pounding kick to the ribcage. Jones looks for his own kick, and it goes on the outside of the Brazilian’s lead leg. Dueling front kicks come from the bantamweights, with Barcelos the one that lands. Jones chips at the lead calf with his shin, and he ducks into a crisp right hook. Barcelos lets a head kick fly, and Jones is able to block it in the nick of time. Jones comes out throwing haymakers, but Barcelos’ high guard defends against the strikes and allows him to clip Jones with a left. Barcelos moves to take things down, and as soon as they hit the mat, Jones scrambles and gets to his knees. Barcelos fishes for a choke with his right arm around the neck, but he lets it go to slug Jones in the face and lower Jones to the ground. Barcelos, in half guard, works the side with punches as he softens Jones up and tries to pass guard as the same time. The Brazilian succeeds in passing to full mount, and he presses his forearm on the throat in the form of an Ezekiel choke that makes Jones twist and buck to protect his neck. Barcelos sits up and slashes down with elbows, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 2
Like the previous round, the two are cautious to engage with much to start the second round. Jones waits with his left hand cocked back, while Barcelos jabs with a few kicks. When Jones reaches out with a right hand, Barcelos loops his own hook around the high guard and dings Jones cleanly. Barcelos swarms him with three punches, and he leaps in the air with a knee that bounces off Jones’ dome. Barcelos lands and pushes Jones back to the wire, but there is no takedown to be had, so he scores a right hand on the break. Jones backs away when a right bears down on him, but he is not keeping Barcelos honest with his own offense. Barcelos strings several kicks together to the leg and body, and a head kick follows suit. Barcelos unloads with a huge right hand from up close, and “5 Star” crumbles to the floor. Barcelos swarms him and arcs down some elbows, while Jones clings to his man so that he does not get pounded out. The Brazilian manages to land a few more elbows before standing up, and he leaps down to get in a better position. As Jones scrambles, he gives up his neck, and Barcelos grabs a guillotine choke. The submission is used to push Jones down to his knees, and he considers a rear-naked choke while hanging on from above. Jones turns around to protect his neck, and as he does, Barcelos rains down several elbows. Multiple unanswered right hands slam into the face of Jones, and the strikes have opened a cut up on the scalp of Jones. The Guam native throws his legs up for a high guard into a triangle, but Barcelos ignores it so that he can beat down Jones with vicious elbows. Before Barcelos can get the finish, Jones is saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Round 3
Barcelos is amped up to start off the final frame, and he cuts Jones off and tags him with a left hand. Jones fires back with a kick, but Barcelos is able to intercept him with a huge right hook. Jones reels and gathers his thoughts to launch a broad uppercut, and the Brazilian shifts his head just enough to avoid the blow. Barcelos leaps forward into a left hand, and Jones tries to roll with it but still takes the brunt of it flush. Jones gets his bearings back and walks into a left hand, and he tries to connect with a right hand but gets cracked with a pair of punches that buckle his knees. Jones desperately shoots for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs it and pushes him back to the wall. A pair of powerful right hands to the body bend Jones over, but Jones otherwise defends the remainder of Barcelos’ assault until Barcelos backs off. Jones sticks a left high, and the two punches he fires off after whiz past Barcelos’ head. A loud right hand to the body forces Jones to double over again, and Barcelos lets him get his steam back. Barcelos counters a looping left hand with a knee up the middle, and it collides square into the cup. Peterson halts the action immediately, but Jones only needs 20 seconds to catch his breath before he signals he is good to go. When they resume, Barcelos shoots in for a takedown, and he lands in full mount position. Jones hand-fights to protect himself from the oncoming strikes, and when Barcelos breaks the grip, he settles for wrapping his arms around Barcelos’ waist. Barcelos postures up and delivers a little ground-and-pound, and he moves from side control to the other side as he rains down brutal elbows. The elbow barrage continues while Jones shifts and attempts to stand up, and Barcelos does everything he can to go home early. The stoppage does not materialize as Jones keeps moving enough to show he is still intelligently defending himself, and he reaches the final bell in what may be a moral victory.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Trevin Jones via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.
Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.
The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, believing he is the more consistent and skilled fighter. He notes that Barcelos looks like his old self when allowed to fight at his own pace, and Trevin Jones lacks the volume and pressure to exploit Barcelos's cardio issues. He thinks Barcelos will win a clear decision, as Jones is sloppy and gets backed up easily. He includes Barcelos in his parlay and calls him a favorite double-up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 0 | 62 of 178 | 34% | 62 of 178 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 89 of 164 | 54% | 89 of 164 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 24 of 72 | 33% | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 62 of 178 | 34% | 33 of 142 | 16 of 23 | 13 of 13 | 61 of 177 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 89 of 164 | 54% | 52 of 119 | 21 of 28 | 16 of 17 | 79 of 154 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 18 of 47 | 38% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 31 of 57 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 10 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 20 of 59 | 33% | 10 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 27 of 44 | 61% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 24 of 72 | 33% | 14 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 31 of 63 | 49% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Javid Basharat, praising his constant movement and ability to avoid power while getting his own takedowns. He notes that Trevin Jones is dangerous but Basharat's wrestling and distance management should be the difference. He acknowledges the Contender Series fade narrative but dismisses it.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Javid Basharat to win a close decision. He acknowledges Basharat's impressive Contender Series performance but has concerns about his level of competition. He notes Trevin Jones has power and a black belt in BJJ, but his UFC performances have been inconsistent (getting beaten up before scoring knockouts). He thinks Basharat can get takedowns and control the fight, but it's a tough call.
Cody is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Daniel Levi picks Javid Basharat, praising his length, pace, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Basharat fights with his hands down a bit, which could be a concern against Trevin Jones's power, but believes Basharat will win the minutes and overwhelm Jones. Levi thinks Jones's last performance was poor and that Basharat will come forward and knock him out.
Basharat is a Contender Series alum with a diverse finishing ability and good takedown defense. He is a slick striker who uses range well and can scramble. Jones may land takedowns but will struggle to hold him down and has cardio issues. Basharat is predicted to win by second-round TKO or submission.
Paul is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat over Trevin Jones, favoring his grappling-heavy approach. He notes that Jones has knockout power but was swarmed in his last fight, and he trusts Basharat's grappling to control Jones for three rounds. He predicts a 30-27 decision, with Basharat outgrappling Jones and not getting finished. He acknowledges possible octagon jitters but believes Basharat's grappling will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 70 of 112 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 8:59 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 123 of 163 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 4 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 34 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 35 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 38 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Trevin Jones | 36 of 65 | 55% | 21 of 48 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 46 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 10 of 23 | 43% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Trevin Jones | 28 of 49 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 7 of 13 | 53% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Jones, expecting him to be a favorite. He praises Jones' durability, BJJ black belt, and knockout power, noting his comeback wins. He thinks Kakhramonov's wrestling won't be effective and that Jones will capitalize as the fight goes on.
Kakhramonov is a solid replacement with power and a judo background, but he can be wild. Jones has knockout power and decent BJJ. I think Jones catches him and knocks him out, but I'm wary of the unknowns. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as I expect a finish from either side.
Paul leans toward Kakhramonov as a big underdog, noting his solid performance against Umar Nurmagomedov and potential holes in Jones' game. He expects Kakhramonov to be a sizable dog and would be drawn to that side, but acknowledges the short notice and weight cut concerns.
The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones to win by KO. He praises Jones' toughness and power, noting his ability to find one-shot knockouts. He expects Kakhramonov to be overaggressive on short notice, and Jones will crack him with a check hook or similar shot in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 43 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 40 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 28 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 21 of 42 | 50% | 11 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 23 of 30 | 76% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 18 of 34 | 52% | 9 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 16 of 21 | 76% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones, citing Bautista's superior striking and volume advantage. He notes that Jones is very hittable, absorbing 9.45 significant strikes per minute in his last fight, and that Bautista has a massive striking and volume edge. He acknowledges Jones is tough and has never been knocked out, so he predicts a decision win for Bautista.
Daniel picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's higher volume and overall better skills. He notes that Trevin Jones' win over Timur Valiev was a lucky upset and that Bautista is the better fighter if he doesn't get caught with a big shot.
Bautista is an aggressive striker with great Muay Thai, using all eight limbs effectively. He has a height advantage and trains at MMA Lab with other fighters on the card. The host believes Bautista has Trevin Jones covered everywhere and predicts a first-round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones. He notes that Jones was dismantled by Timo Vallev until a lucky shot, while Bautista's only loss is to Cory Sandhagen. He believes Bautista is technically superior and will win by unanimous decision, as Jones is tough but Bautista is more patient and younger.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 1 | 66 of 93 | 70% | 66 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 1 | 53 of 74 | 71% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 66 of 93 | 70% | 28 of 50 | 25 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 60 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 26 of 50 | 52% | 21 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 53 of 74 | 71% | 26 of 43 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 47 of 67 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 13 of 19 | 68% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 18 of 26 | 69% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.
Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.
The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.
Mario Bautista - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)
Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 81 of 105 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 32 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 32 of 54 | 59% | 24 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mario Bautista | 20 of 54 | 37% | 6 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 9 of 28 | 32% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Mario Bautista | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.
Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.
The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.
Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.
This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 173 of 302 | 57% | 173 of 302 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 122 of 304 | 40% | 122 of 304 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 65 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 108 | 60% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 27 of 119 | 22% | 27 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 173 of 302 | 57% | 96 of 216 | 58 of 66 | 19 of 20 | 172 of 301 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 122 of 304 | 40% | 92 of 265 | 14 of 22 | 16 of 17 | 118 of 299 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 43 of 91 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 18 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 36 of 74 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 103 | 63% | 42 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 59 of 111 | 53% | 49 of 96 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 56 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 108 | 60% | 36 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 27 of 119 | 22% | 21 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.
Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.
Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.
Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.
Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 90 of 174 | 51% | 108 of 192 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 79 of 137 | 57% | 102 of 161 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 38 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 41 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 90 of 174 | 51% | 48 of 123 | 22 of 30 | 20 of 21 | 52 of 129 | 37 of 42 | 1 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 79 of 137 | 57% | 48 of 103 | 21 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 51 of 101 | 24 of 30 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 29 of 48 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 15 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 19 of 25 | 76% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 32 of 67 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 52 | 40% | 12 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 28 of 45 | 62% | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.
Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones, citing Bautista's superior striking and volume advantage. He notes that Jones is very hittable, absorbing 9.45 significant strikes per minute in his last fight, and that Bautista has a massive striking and volume edge. He acknowledges Jones is tough and has never been knocked out, so he predicts a decision win for Bautista.
Daniel picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's higher volume and overall better skills. He notes that Trevin Jones' win over Timur Valiev was a lucky upset and that Bautista is the better fighter if he doesn't get caught with a big shot.
Bautista is an aggressive striker with great Muay Thai, using all eight limbs effectively. He has a height advantage and trains at MMA Lab with other fighters on the card. The host believes Bautista has Trevin Jones covered everywhere and predicts a first-round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista over Trevin Jones. He notes that Jones was dismantled by Timo Vallev until a lucky shot, while Bautista's only loss is to Cory Sandhagen. He believes Bautista is technically superior and will win by unanimous decision, as Jones is tough but Bautista is more patient and younger.
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