UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 41
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Josh Emmett
3.67 SLpM
35.0% Str. Acc.
4.52 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.07 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
43.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Shane Burgos
7.4 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
6.78 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Josh Emmett - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Submission R1 1:38 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-440), Emmett (+340)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it paired brick-fisted Emmett (19-5, 10-5 UFC) with whirling dervish Zalal (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC), and a passing of the torch moment may come when the dust settles. While Emmett may have passed the 40-year-old threshold, the last thing to go is the power. Referee Jason Herzog dons his proverbial hard hat as the two featherweight contenders touch ‘em up.
Zalal approaches with his hands wide by his sides, and his leg ready to fly. Zalal lands a quick kick and darts out of the way when Emmett bears down on him. Zalal whiffs on a front kick, and he shoots for a double when Emmett is about to strike. Zalal succeeds in grounding the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete with ease, and he advances to three-quarter mount while clinging to an arm-triangle setup. Emmett muscles his man over, and Zalal isolates his foe’s arm in pursuit of an armbar. Emmett keeps his weight pressed down on top, and he starts stepping over to try to get out of the sub. With Emmett’s arms both trapped, he is stunned and has to call out “tap tap tap” in order to signal that he is done and does not want to get his limb snapped. The crowd is silenced as Herzog steps in, not entirely knowing what has just happened. Fans start booing until they realize that Emmett verbally surrendered, and then they chill out because Zalal just notched an extremely impressive victory over a perennial contender in under two minutes. In victory, Zalal declares that he will be champion one day.

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Josh Emmett R1 1:38 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.

"I'm going to pick Ysef Zal here. Ysef's ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler is going to suit him well here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.

"Give me Zo use allow by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.

"Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I'm picking Zolol as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.

"I believe Zalal's style will be a little bit too difficult for Emmett to get a track on him... I think that will lead to Zalal winning a pretty boring decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.

TKO win
"I'm going to go with Youssef Zalal to get this one done. And I'm going to say late rounds TKO, knee up the middle."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.

"I just think uses the law can go out there and have that cater fight. And yeah, he might be in more danger than he was against cater in those bad positions, but he might be just as able to …"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
KO (punch) R1 1:57 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)

Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.

The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.

Half unit bet at -140; fight goes full 15 minutes
"Bryce Mitchell is the pick I got that bet on him and I trust him to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.

"I lean Josh EMT here I don't know whether he does win by knockout I could see like a damage based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.

Bryce Mitchell inside the distance
"Bryce Mitchell ends up just is getting the takedowns... grinds on him and secure the victory inside the distance"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.

"I think that Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown and I think that Bryce Mitchell does work from top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think Mitchell decided to accept this fight on short notice because he saw the openings that he could Implement to try to get his hand raised here so give me Bryce Mitchell and Bryce Mitchell by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.

"my official pick is Josh EMT at plus 200"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.

Emmett by TKO
"I'm going to go Josh EMT getting it done over Bryce Mitchell by TKO... I can just see Bryce Mitchell not getting his takedowns in the first and then being a bit weird looking on the feet"
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–42, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 87 of 305 28% 89 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 152 of 344 44% 171 of 365 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 14 of 68 20% 14 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ilia Topuria 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Ilia Topuria 0 13 of 52 25% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 56 of 100 56% 62 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
5 Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 36 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 8 of 22 36% 21 of 36 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 87 of 305 28% 43 of 232 26 of 53 18 of 20 87 of 305 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 152 of 344 44% 124 of 302 9 of 16 19 of 26 114 of 289 2 of 2 36 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 14 of 68 20% 8 of 58 4 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 19 of 68 27% 8 of 47 6 of 15 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 30 of 75 40% 25 of 66 0 of 0 5 of 9 25 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Ilia Topuria 31 of 81 38% 16 of 60 7 of 12 8 of 9 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 37 of 91 40% 30 of 80 3 of 5 4 of 6 37 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Ilia Topuria 13 of 52 25% 6 of 39 6 of 12 1 of 1 13 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 56 of 100 56% 50 of 90 2 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 55 2 of 2 28 of 43
5 Ilia Topuria 10 of 36 27% 5 of 28 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)

Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett

Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.

"Ilya should absolutely work Josh Eman here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.

first round sub
"I'm gonna take the 40 to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.

Live betting recommended; considers taking Emmett if Topuria drops early.
"I actually kind of think I like this one better from a live betting standpoint."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.

Odds too wide; Topuria -321 is too high given Emmett's power. Emmett could be the 'hot stove' that hurts Topuria.
"I do favor Toporia, but it cannot be ignored that like the fight I see Toporia winning is... 60 40, a suicide mission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.

No bet at -310; thinks line is about right.
"I think tapiro is the crisper boxer I think he's better Jiu Jitsu... I tend to think the period is gonna outbox and finish them in the mid late rounds but yeah he's my pick but I have no bet …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.

violence (fight doesn't go to decision)
"I'm gonna go with the young girl fighter here in toporia but I think the line is a little bit too wide if anybody's looking to chase value on Josh Ahmed I think the value at least from my perspective …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.

"I think the line is relatively pretty accurate here at minus 325 like if they fought 10 times he probably wins seven to eight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.

Mentions that both can knock each other out in the first round; notes Emmett got gifted decisions against Kattar and Ige, implying he's overranked.
"I'm picking Ilya to Puria to win in no way at whatsoever should the poll on topology be 92 Superior eight percent Josh Emmett... this is arguably like a 60 40 type of fight to Ilya to Puria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.

Odds too wide; Topuria opened -299 now -321, Emmett +253 to +270. Topuria's best win is Bryce Mitchell, not a comparable physical test.
"I got to pick Toporia to the assertiveness and the persistence in the form... I have to pick Toporia here."
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 130 of 375 34% 131 of 376 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 107 of 332 32% 107 of 332 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 14 of 39 35% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Josh Emmett 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 19 of 66 28% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 41 of 106 38% 41 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 80 26% 21 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Josh Emmett 0 34 of 86 39% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 130 of 375 34% 114 of 351 15 of 23 1 of 1 130 of 375 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 107 of 332 32% 73 of 286 26 of 37 8 of 9 106 of 330 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 39 35% 12 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 11 of 35 31% 8 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 22 of 78 28% 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 26 of 73 35% 19 of 63 6 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 19 of 66 28% 18 of 62 1 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 27 of 77 35% 18 of 65 8 of 11 1 of 1 27 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 41 of 106 38% 35 of 98 6 of 8 0 of 0 41 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 21 of 80 26% 13 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 34 of 86 39% 29 of 79 5 of 7 0 of 0 34 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 22 of 67 32% 15 of 58 6 of 7 1 of 2 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

"i do like calvin qatar to win with his footwork and his technique but it's not completely out of the question that calvin vs emmett looks like font vs vera"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

fourth round knockout
"I like calvin keator to win i like common cater i'll say to win bye i'll say fourth round knockout for calvin keator"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Calvin Kattar by decision
"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

dog or pass situation; Kattar -230 is too high; Emmett +195 is tempting
"i lean cater it's just minus 250 odds are not indicative of a coin flip fight so i see this at the betting window being a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

third round tko
"i'm going with cater over emmett... i see calvin kater getting this one done by third round tko"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 60 of 165 36% 62 of 167 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Dan Ige 0 70 of 168 41% 73 of 171 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Dan Ige 0 23 of 50 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
2 Josh Emmett 0 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Dan Ige 0 25 of 56 44% 26 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 20 of 70 28% 21 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dan Ige 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 60 of 165 36% 51 of 151 7 of 12 2 of 2 48 of 151 5 of 7 7 of 7
Dan Ige 70 of 168 41% 54 of 147 9 of 13 7 of 8 68 of 164 1 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 31 45% 11 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 3 of 3 7 of 7
Dan Ige 23 of 50 46% 18 of 45 2 of 2 3 of 3 22 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Josh Emmett 26 of 64 40% 21 of 58 4 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 25 of 56 44% 20 of 50 3 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 20 of 70 28% 19 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 62 35% 16 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.

"give me josh emmett to win though i think the power will be key here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.

"i think josh emmett's a bad matchup for dan ige he opened minus 200 he's currently minus 150 i think there's a hell of a lot of value there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with josh emmett here i think he's pretty underrated in the featherweight division"
Shane Burgos - Fight History
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 42 of 80 52% 67 of 116 2 of 7 28% 3 0 6:25
Charles Jourdain 0 113 of 188 60% 161 of 241 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:24
Charles Jourdain 0 24 of 41 58% 39 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Shane Burgos 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 39 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:02
Charles Jourdain 0 5 of 11 45% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Shane Burgos 0 26 of 45 57% 27 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Charles Jourdain 0 84 of 136 61% 115 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 42 of 80 52% 16 of 47 6 of 12 20 of 21 28 of 61 13 of 18 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 113 of 188 60% 72 of 145 36 of 37 5 of 6 68 of 133 41 of 51 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 12 of 27 44% 3 of 13 4 of 8 5 of 6 6 of 17 6 of 10 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 24 of 41 58% 10 of 26 10 of 11 4 of 4 14 of 27 9 of 13 1 of 1
2 Shane Burgos 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 26 of 45 57% 11 of 29 1 of 2 14 of 14 19 of 37 7 of 8 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 84 of 136 61% 60 of 112 23 of 23 1 of 1 49 of 95 32 of 38 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burgos (-170), Jourdain (+145)

Round 1
Mayhem is almost certainly on the menu for this featherweight contest between ferocious strikers Burgos (14-3, 7-3 UFC) and Jourdain (13-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Receiving the biggest pop of the evening thus far is New Yorker Burgos, who hopes to channel the crowd’s energy and handle the high-flying Canadian. Referee Keith Peterson has his hands full for the nonsense-free chaos that is likely about to ensue, and the two men light the fuse that is their bout with a glove touch. Burgos immediately begins to walk the Canadian down, and he blocks a head kick from the retreating Jourdain. Burgos reaches Jourdain with a few punches, and Jourdain pushes out several front kicks. A right hand from Burgos shakes Jourdain up, and Jourdain bounces off the wall behind him to reset. Burgos continues his constant forward movement, and he unexpectedly grabs hold of the legs to try a takedown. Burgos manages to get Jourdain down, and he finds himself in guillotine choke danger. “Hurricane Shane” shakes off the choke so that he can move to take the back, and Jourdain stands up and tries to peel Burgos off of him with the wire. Burgos uses this moment to jump on to his back, and he kicks off the fence to pull Jourdain back down. When down on the ground, Burgos latches on to a neck crank, and Peterson checks to make sure that Jourdain is still with it. He is good to go, and he slides his neck out of the crushing grip. Jourdain stands up again, even with Burgos on his back, and he not as much moves out the back door as he does slide out the side, and he lowers Burgos down to the ground. Burgos explodes back to his feet, and when he does, Jourdain meets him with a punch that draws a smile. Jourdain ties his man up and unloads with several knees to the body, and these have a noticeable impact as he slows Burgos down and finds the home with several short yet powerful blows. Burgos strides forward confidently, and Jourdain counters him by trying to sweep the legs. Burgos keeps himself upright and blocks a few kicks, and he plods ahead to throw hands. Jourdain again ties him up and works the midsection with knees until they break. Burgos offers him a glove touch after the multiple successful blows, and he steps in with a leg kick. Burgos winds up with one that lands with a loud slap, and Jourdain grabs him and spams knees. “Air” Jourdain just misses with a flying knee, and the clinch draws out a few strikes before the horn sounds. This round could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain

Round 2
The featherweights meet in the middle with a slap of gloves to start off the round, and Jourdain backs off and reaches out with front kicks. Backing up, Jourdain sneaks in a right hand, and Burgos walks through it only to absorb a left hand that makes him smile. Jourdain is throwing leather as he keeps his safe range, and he beats Burgos to the punch in a few exchanges. Burgos rips the body with a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Jourdain escapes on the outside. When Jourdain overthrows on a strike, Burgos moves to take Jourdain from behind. Burgos manages to climb on to the back and lock up a body triangle while Jourdain is standing, leaning Burgos into the wall. Burgos cannot free his hands to hunt for a choke, but he does lean back to pull Jourdain away from the fencing and force Jourdain to bear his full weight. Jourdain bucks suddenly and bends over, and Burgos hands on tight and frees his hands to go after a rear-naked choke. Jourdain rolls all the way over, but Burgos’ body triangle keeps him tightly pressed on his man. The Canadian wriggles and shakes in an effort to get Burgos off of him, but it is to no avail, as Burgos starts to bop him on the sides of the head with very short punches. Burgos isolates the neck and bails on it to flirt with a Suloev Stretch, which makes Jourdain drop to his knees so a kneebar does not come from the position. The back control of Burgos is heavy and smothering, forcing Jourdain back down to his knees and nearly flattening him out. “Air” cannot get some space, and he finds himself in submission danger as Burgos locks on to a rear-naked choke that is just crushing on Jourdain’s jaw right below the nose. Jourdain toughs it out and stops Burgos from tapping him, and Burgos gets the crowd motivated as he smacks Jourdain upside the head until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burgos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burgos
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Burgos

Round 3
The exciting featherweights meet in the middle, and Burgos chops at the lead leg a few times to open up early. Jourdain responds with similar strikes, and they trade right hands as chants of “USA” rain down for the New Yorker. Burgos walks Jourdain down but eats several jabs on the way forward, and he is fighting in phone booth throwing punches to the body and kicks to the calf. Jourdain meets him with straight punches, and he chains a few punches together to mark Burgos’ face up. The jabs keep splitting the guard, and he backs Burgos up and scores several times without concern. Burgos is right there ready to trade, and he gets beaten to the punch several times as Jourdain’s left finds its home repeatedly. Jourdain strings together a sharp combination, leading to Burgos attempting a single. The Canadian defends it well and drills Burgos with multiple uppercuts, hurting Burgos but not getting him off of him. Burgos tries to pull Jourdain down, but Jourdain turns him around and knees him in the face. Burgos drops down to a knee when absorbing those strikes, and Jourdain rips the body several times. Jourdain lets his hands go as Burgos is reeling, and he is hurting Burgos with several big shots. Jourdain opens up with several hooks and kicks low, and Burgos’ single responses are labored and largely ineffective. Burgos, stuck against the wall, eats big punches and uppercuts, and Jourdain mixes it up with a flying knee. Jourdain unloads on Burgos with knees to the head and body, and his hands do not stop moving as he batters Burgos constantly. Burgos looks at the camera and sticks out his tongue, and Jourdain looses a vicious elbow that staggers Burgos. The New Yorker falls back against the fence, and he rebounds and ducks down to tie Jourdain up from the back. Burgos takes the back and slows the onslaught, and Jourdain grabs the fence to stay afloat. Jourdain yells “come on” as Burgos drags him down, only to spring right back up. With seconds left on the clock, they throw caution to the wind, and Jourdain nails him with a head kick. Burgos swings with everything he has left, as does Jourdain, and Peterson has to get between them when the final bell sounds. What a round for Jourdain, doing to Burgos what Burgos likes to do to people. They go the distance, and this fight could hinge on the first round’s score.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)

The Official Result
Shane Burgos def. Charles Jourdain via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, citing his pressure, volume, and body work. He acknowledges Jourdain's power and chin, but believes Burgos's insane output (232 strikes in last fight) will be the difference. He notes the odds are wider than expected and expects a close fight.

predicts fight of the night candidate
"shane is the pick but this will be a fun fight and i do think this will be a very close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He highlights Burgos's volume (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and a 6.5-inch reach advantage as key factors. He acknowledges Burgos's poor striking defense and reliance on his chin, but believes Burgos's skill and volume will outwork Jourdain. He expects a war but thinks Burgos wins on the scorecards.

"i'm gonna say burgos wins this fight um based off of the volume here it's gonna be a war it's gonna be fun give me shane burgos to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his high volume and experience against elite competition. He notes that Burgos lands a massive number of significant strikes and has fought top featherweights, while Jourdain's wins are over lower-level opponents. Cody acknowledges Burgos' chin issues but believes his forward pressure and output will overwhelm Jourdain.

Fight of the Night (plus 600)
"i think it's going to be an absolute scrap burgos could get knocked out we need to recognize that he fights reckless he fights dangerous"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, believing Burgos is slightly ahead of Jourdain at this stage. He praises Burgos's boxing, pressure, and durability, but notes his defensive flaws and tendency to fight with his hands down. Levi thinks Jourdain is improving but not ready yet, and expects Burgos to win via pressure and pocket boxing.

concerns about Burgos's chin and defense
"i'm gonna pick shane burgos to win it's just the concerns are the guy fights with his hands down his chin up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Burgos' volume and durability will be key. He notes that Burgos has fought and performed well against top-tier opponents, while Jourdain's resume is less impressive. Paul expects a high-paced war but believes Burgos' experience and output will carry him to victory.

"i totally agree not even gonna add anything to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Charles Jourdain, citing Burgos's durability and Jourdain's tendency to fade. He references Jourdain's loss to Julian Erosa, who walked him down, and believes Burgos's chin and pressure will be too much. He predicts Burgos will finish Jourdain by TKO in the third round with body shots and ground-and-pound.

predicts third-round TKO
"i think he's going to get a finish in round three by tko to ground and pound finishing off charles jordan"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 193 of 288 67% 232 of 329 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Billy Quarantillo 0 164 of 349 46% 196 of 383 0 of 14 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 54 of 81 66% 68 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Billy Quarantillo 0 63 of 131 48% 81 of 150 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Shane Burgos 0 82 of 114 71% 85 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Billy Quarantillo 0 54 of 130 41% 57 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Shane Burgos 0 57 of 93 61% 79 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 47 of 88 53% 58 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 193 of 288 67% 133 of 219 32 of 37 28 of 32 162 of 252 30 of 35 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 164 of 349 46% 129 of 301 28 of 39 7 of 9 145 of 322 19 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 54 of 81 66% 37 of 61 8 of 9 9 of 11 53 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 63 of 131 48% 49 of 109 11 of 17 3 of 5 54 of 120 9 of 11 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 82 of 114 71% 55 of 84 14 of 17 13 of 13 71 of 100 11 of 14 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 54 of 130 41% 43 of 116 8 of 11 3 of 3 52 of 125 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 57 of 93 61% 41 of 74 10 of 11 6 of 8 38 of 73 18 of 19 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 47 of 88 53% 37 of 76 9 of 11 1 of 1 39 of 77 8 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, but acknowledges Billy Quarantillo as a live underdog. He notes Burgos's high volume, body work, and chin, but also his high strike absorption rate. He believes Burgos's takedown defense (89%) will be tested, but that Burgos has shown he can get back up. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more Burgos's body shots will pay off.

"i very narrowly am going to side with shane here because even though billy has the better striking stats at this point in his career shane's chin is still holding up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He notes Burgos's striking volume and power, while Quarantillo is hittable and may struggle to get takedowns. Brady acknowledges Burgos's durability and takedown defense, but also his recent knockout loss and short turnaround. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling won't be effective against Burgos, and the fight will be a war with Burgos winning on the feet.

win by decision
"i'll go decision i'll say shane burgos does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Burgos will keep the fight standing, chip away, and win a decision. He notes Quarantillo's cardio and toughness but doubts his power to hurt Burgos. He recommends Burgos by decision at +175.

Burgos by decision (+175)
"i got to go with shane burgos and if i'm trying to improve that line i go with burgos by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo as a plus 170 dog, fading Shane Burgos because Burgos fights with his hands down and hasn't learned his lesson. Levi believes Quarantillo is a dog who will capitalize on that weakness, and that Burgos's last fight against Edson Barboza was uncomfortable to watch. He notes that Quarantillo leveled up after the Gavin Tucker loss and ran through Gabriel Benitez. Levi expects a dogfight where Quarantillo thrives.

plus 170 dog
"give me billy q for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Jacob picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his grappling skills as a black belt and his body shots. He believes Burgos is no slouch on the ground and can handle Quarantillo's grappling. He thinks the fight could turn into a grappling match, but Burgos is well-rounded. He likes Burgos all the way, though he is unsure about the DraftKings price.

"i'm shane all the way you know at 9 000 i don't know if i love that 9 000 mark for for draftkings"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos by decision, believing his technical striking and movement will outclass Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Burgos' chin and durability should hold up. He considered Burgos' decision prop at +200 but thinks it's a sweat.

"i like shane burgos here i think his chin holds up his durability holds up and he showcases that he's the much better technical striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, seeing Burgos as the better striker. He notes Quarantillo needs to get the fight to the mat to win, but Burgos's takedown defense should keep it standing. He doesn't love the price but thinks Burgos wins.

"i was kind of seeing it the same way didn't really love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The Guru picks Shane Burgos, citing his reach advantage and improved grappling defense. He believes Burgos will pick Quarantillo apart at range with body shots and leg kicks, and that Quarantillo lacks the power to KO Burgos. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision, with Burgos winning two rounds clearly.

"I'm gonna go shane burgos here."
LOSS vs Edson Barboza
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"
LOSS vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 2 127 of 266 47% 136 of 275 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Shane Burgos 0 128 of 250 51% 148 of 270 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 36 of 88 40% 36 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Shane Burgos 0 46 of 66 69% 46 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 40 of 88 45% 40 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 48 of 90 53% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 2 51 of 90 56% 60 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Shane Burgos 0 34 of 94 36% 54 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 127 of 266 47% 98 of 232 16 of 21 13 of 13 111 of 243 0 of 0 16 of 23
Shane Burgos 128 of 250 51% 68 of 174 20 of 32 40 of 44 121 of 243 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 36 of 88 40% 26 of 76 5 of 7 5 of 5 36 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 46 of 66 69% 20 of 33 8 of 14 18 of 19 39 of 59 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 40 of 88 45% 33 of 81 2 of 2 5 of 5 40 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 48 of 90 53% 28 of 66 7 of 9 13 of 15 48 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 51 of 90 56% 39 of 75 9 of 12 3 of 3 35 of 67 0 of 0 16 of 23
Shane Burgos 34 of 94 36% 20 of 75 5 of 9 9 of 10 34 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win by knockout in the second round, citing Emmett's tremendous power and Burgos' tendency to absorb a lot of strikes. He thinks the small cage will help Emmett engage more and land a clean shot. He notes that on paper Burgos looks great, but Emmett's power is a game-changer.

pick by knockout in second round; suggests betting Emmett by KO prop
"I am picking Josh Emmett to win here by knockout I know Burgos is probably a popular bet this week but I just see in my head when this plays out just Emmett cracking them at some point and knocking …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi leans toward Shane Burgos, citing his superior technique, variety of strikes, and size advantage. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's one-punch knockout power and notes that Burgos fights with his hands down, which is risky. Levi sees Burgos winning a decision if it goes the distance but admits Emmett could knock him out at any time. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

pass from betting perspective
"I'm going to lean with Shane Burgos here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a great chin and recovery, as seen in the Calvillo fight. He stalks opponents, cuts off the cage, and rips to the body. The smaller cage benefits his pressure style. He will eat Emmett's power shots, make him gas, and get a TKO in the third round.

"Shane Burgos gets it done the reach advantage to size advantage it's just all too much to bet against Shane Burgos here... eventual third round TKO"
TKO (punches) R3 4:32 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 1 105 of 155 67% 161 of 217 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:31
Makwan Amirkhani 0 22 of 48 45% 23 of 49 3 of 19 15% 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 6 of 17 35% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Makwan Amirkhani 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 15 3 of 10 30% 1 0 2:45
2 Shane Burgos 0 27 of 44 61% 61 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Makwan Amirkhani 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:16
3 Shane Burgos 1 72 of 94 76% 84 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Makwan Amirkhani 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 105 of 155 67% 61 of 108 41 of 43 3 of 4 39 of 78 15 of 17 51 of 60
Makwan Amirkhani 22 of 48 45% 21 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 6 of 17 35% 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Shane Burgos 27 of 44 61% 11 of 25 14 of 16 2 of 3 14 of 28 1 of 1 12 of 15
Makwan Amirkhani 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 72 of 94 76% 46 of 68 25 of 25 1 of 1 20 of 35 13 of 14 39 of 45
Makwan Amirkhani 9 of 18 50% 8 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Cub Swanson
Decision (split) (30–27, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 129 of 256 50% 132 of 260 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Cub Swanson 0 134 of 268 50% 147 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 37 of 73 50% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 0 41 of 81 50% 41 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shane Burgos 0 43 of 96 44% 43 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 0 48 of 95 50% 48 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Shane Burgos 0 49 of 87 56% 52 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Cub Swanson 0 45 of 92 48% 58 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 129 of 256 50% 66 of 167 14 of 26 49 of 63 113 of 239 11 of 12 5 of 5
Cub Swanson 134 of 268 50% 82 of 208 18 of 25 34 of 35 128 of 260 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 37 of 73 50% 18 of 42 5 of 11 14 of 20 37 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 41 of 81 50% 24 of 60 5 of 9 12 of 12 40 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 43 of 96 44% 26 of 73 5 of 9 12 of 14 41 of 94 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 48 of 95 50% 31 of 75 5 of 7 12 of 13 48 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 49 of 87 56% 22 of 52 4 of 6 23 of 29 35 of 72 9 of 10 5 of 5
Cub Swanson 45 of 92 48% 27 of 73 8 of 9 10 of 10 40 of 85 5 of 7 0 of 0
Submission (armbar) R1 2:11 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Calvin Kattar
TKO (punches) R3 0:32 · UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Jan 20, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 1 85 of 194 43% 86 of 195 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Shane Burgos 0 89 of 186 47% 91 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 40 of 76 52% 40 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 33 of 78 42% 33 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 35 of 94 37% 36 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Shane Burgos 0 55 of 101 54% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 1 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Shane Burgos 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 85 of 194 43% 73 of 174 5 of 10 7 of 10 79 of 182 1 of 2 5 of 10
Shane Burgos 89 of 186 47% 46 of 126 25 of 38 18 of 22 86 of 182 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 40 of 76 52% 32 of 66 4 of 5 4 of 5 40 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 33 of 78 42% 21 of 61 8 of 12 4 of 5 33 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 35 of 94 37% 31 of 84 1 of 5 3 of 5 34 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 55 of 101 54% 25 of 60 17 of 25 13 of 16 52 of 97 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 5 of 10
Shane Burgos 1 of 7 14% 0 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win by knockout in the second round, citing Emmett's tremendous power and Burgos' tendency to absorb a lot of strikes. He thinks the small cage will help Emmett engage more and land a clean shot. He notes that on paper Burgos looks great, but Emmett's power is a game-changer.

pick by knockout in second round; suggests betting Emmett by KO prop
"I am picking Josh Emmett to win here by knockout I know Burgos is probably a popular bet this week but I just see in my head when this plays out just Emmett cracking them at some point and knocking him out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi leans toward Shane Burgos, citing his superior technique, variety of strikes, and size advantage. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's one-punch knockout power and notes that Burgos fights with his hands down, which is risky. Levi sees Burgos winning a decision if it goes the distance but admits Emmett could knock him out at any time. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

pass from betting perspective
"I'm going to lean with Shane Burgos here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a great chin and recovery, as seen in the Calvillo fight. He stalks opponents, cuts off the cage, and rips to the body. The smaller cage benefits his pressure style. He will eat Emmett's power shots, make him gas, and get a TKO in the third round.

"Shane Burgos gets it done the reach advantage to size advantage it's just all too much to bet against Shane Burgos here... eventual third round TKO"