King Green

King Green

16-12-1
vs
UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - King Green
6.38 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.58 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Clay Guida
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
3.0 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
King Green - Fight History
Submission R1 4:20 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens (160: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)

Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.

The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.

"I'm picking Bobby Green here or King Green. He's the better overall fighter."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.

Angelo says he does not like the odds and will probably leave it alone.
"Bobby being a three to one favorite here is a little bit surprising. I'm going to pick him. I think he does win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.

"For me it's Green and I think it's Green probably by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.

Green by submission (10 to 1)
"I got Bobby Green. That much is for sure. But yeah, at minus 400, you got Bobby Green is a little bit older."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.

"I'm going Bobby Green to beat Jeremy Stevens."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.

No bet. Mentions Stephens +3.5 fight spread as interesting but passes.
"I'm going to be passing on this one because I do think Bobby Green is more likely to win and I don't like Stevens enough in this matchup to take a shot on him at underdog odds."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
King Green

Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.

Green by decision +120
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.

"I like King Green in this fight. People are going to say like, 'Oh, he could get knocked out and stuff.' And yeah, anybody can get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.

"I'm definitely taking Bobby Green to get the win. Decision is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.

Decision prop for Green
"I think Green outstrikes uh Stevens here, wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.

"I got Bobby Green winning. Probably by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.

"I'm going to go with Bobby Bobbert Baratheon Green over Jeremy Stevens by TKO in the second or Nah. Decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
KO R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 86 of 134 64% 100 of 148 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 41 of 64 64% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 6 of 32 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 45 of 70 64% 59 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 7 of 59 4 of 10 6 of 9 17 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 86 of 134 64% 39 of 72 21 of 29 26 of 33 71 of 119 5 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 11 of 46 23% 3 of 32 3 of 7 5 of 7 11 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 41 of 64 64% 10 of 23 15 of 19 16 of 22 36 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 6 of 32 18% 4 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 45 of 70 64% 29 of 49 6 of 10 10 of 11 35 of 60 0 of 0 10 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)

Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.

"I'm going to pick Zel Huber here because literally ... sometimes Bobby Green is not serious enough and he's too busy dancing around and showboating."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.

second round knockout
"So, give me Zel Huber minus 500. ... Zel Huber by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.

"I'm out on that. So, uh, yeah, it's either a dog or pass here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.

Green's craftiness; Zellhuber's slow starts; Green's losses to fast strikers
"But I can't pick Bobby green to win any fight anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.

"I'm going Daniel Z Huber here"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.

Parlaying him with Brandon Moreno.
"I think he's the safest bet on the card. I think he wins a very high percentage of the time. ... I'd be amazed if Zel Huba loses this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.

"I got Daniel Zel Huba to win this fight and semi redeem himself... Daniel Zel Huba inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.

KO prop
"I'm still going to go with the Mexican here to show out in front of a hometown crowd and give me a Huber by knockout, but minus 500 is just way too wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.

"I know I'm a lot closer to click kick uh clicking green plus 375 than considering Zel Huber a safe minus500 parlay piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.

TKO
"I think Zelhuber's going to TKO him. ... I'm going to go with Daniel Zelhuber getting this one done by TKO over a Green pretty confidently."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.

Green's age (39); Green's losses to Pimblett and Turner; Zellhuber's inconsistency; odds too wide
"I have to pick him. Oh yeah. Absolutely. Like I just, I don't think green, like he should not be fighting at this level anymore."
WIN vs Lance Gibson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 65 of 141 46% 74 of 150 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 30 of 72 41% 35 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 13 of 25 52% 18 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:04
3 King Green 0 28 of 53 52% 33 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 65 of 141 46% 25 of 77 24 of 40 16 of 24 56 of 129 1 of 1 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 30 of 72 41% 9 of 39 8 of 14 13 of 19 27 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 22 of 51 43% 8 of 26 5 of 14 9 of 11 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 12 of 35 34% 4 of 22 2 of 4 6 of 9 11 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 King Green 15 of 37 40% 5 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 7 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 13 of 25 52% 4 of 11 3 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 King Green 28 of 53 52% 12 of 29 13 of 18 3 of 6 20 of 42 0 of 0 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lance Gibson Jr. vs. Bobby Green
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-210); Gibson Jr. (+170)

Round 1
In an unexpected catchweight delight, “King” Green (32-17-1, 1 NC; 13-12-1, 1 NC UFC) will sneak in his second fight of 2025 right before the buzzer. He takes this match at a 160-pound catchweight likely due to it being put together about a week ago. Matching up in the cage will be Bellator expat Gibson Jr. (9-1, 0-0 UFC)—for the purposes of this play-by-play, his “junior” name suffix will be omitted—who will be competing for the first time in over a year. It should be noted that Gibson now completes the third father-son duo to both compete in the Octagon, joining Randy and Ryan Couture as well as Gilbert and Elijah Smith. Accompanying the athletes in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, who watches on as the two elect not to touch gloves.
Green walks the newcomer down flexing his pectorals, hands down by his hips. Gibson lands first with a thudding calf kick, and Green stares at him like a disappointed father. Gibson fires off kicks at his opponent, and Green showboats and wipes off his shoulder to suggest nothing landed. Green gets off a body kick, and Gibson has another high kick blocked in the nick of time. Green stays evasive and starts motioning like he is dribbling a basketball and otherwise goofing around in the midst of a fist fight. This makes Gibson back off, so Green points at the ground and says, “come here!” Gibson obliges, rushing at him for a possible clinch, but Green slides to the side to stay in striking range. The American jabs the body with his foot, and he stomp kicks at the knee to hyperextend Gibson’s lead leg.
Green’s hands remain as low as they can go, and he connects with a body kick and is well out of range before Gibson can get him back with anything but his own kick to the ribs. Green slips to score a right hand, and Gibson cracks him with a left that stands Green up. Green tries to play it off like he is fine, and Gibson picks up on the tell and charges him. Green shakes it off and starts getting in Gibson’s head again, chattering at him and telling him to come at him. Green walks Gibson around the cage, and Gibson pitches a kick at him that Green catches. Green slips in a short left hand and splits the guard with a front kick, and he has Gibson flustered with his approach. Green ducks down to land a right hand, and Gibson buzzes him behind the ear. Green tells to keep throwing with him, and Gibson looks for knees instead and a possible clinch. Green shakes his head, dodges a few punches and salutes. The strange round ends, and scores could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Green wades out of his corner fearlessly, hands characteristically by his hips, and he uses head movement and footwork to avoid the early offense coming his direction. He gets in close to force Gibson off-balance from a front kick, and Green’s overhand right knocks Gibson to the floor. Gibson leaps back up and hurls a left hand at him, Green dodges and goes “woo,” and he proceeds to mess with Gibson while tossing one-twos at him. Gibson tosses out a low kick, and Green’s front kick response ricochets off the cup. Smith calls time, and Green starts clapping and saying “we gotta get this thing going” as if to hurry Gibson back to combat. The Canadian keeps ignoring him, so Green apologizes to Gibson’s father for the accidental foul. Smith warns Green to avoid kicking the low body, because it is the second kick he has gotten away with there. Gibson marches back and forth adjusting his cup, and Green is hanging out waiting for the recovery time to elapse and talking to anyone without earshot who bothers listening. The roughly two-minute break concludes with a clap of hands from the two fighters. When they resume, Green aims a side kick to the chest, and he wraps a kick around the guard. Gibson rushes him and throws a high kick to open up a level change, and he puts “King” on the floor and advances to side control in a hurry. Gibson clings with his right arm around the back of Green’s head, until Green scrambles to get back to his feet. Gibson holds him from behind in hopes of a mat return.
Gibson knees him in the chin and stomps at his toes, staying up close in the clinch to not give Green any space. Green nearly grabs the fence a few times, and Gibson drops down for a single. Green recovers his footing and pushes off Gibson’s face, and he mean mugs him while walking him down. A jab from Gibson opens a tiny cut on Green’s right cheek, one he ignores as he lumbers forward pitching long punches at him. Gibson sits down on a strong right hand, and Green partially rolls with it and offers back a body kick while Gibson is strafing to the side. They clash low kicks, and Green scores a left hand and points at his foe. Gibson throws back only to be well out of range, while Green can get to him with a long front kick to the sternum. Green clips his man with two crisp punches, and he looks for a hook third but is caught on the way in with a solid inside low kick that stumbles him. Green gathers his thoughts and puts on his poker face to start bombing Gibson with a barrage of punches. Gibson barely misses a spin right before the bell, and Green wipes his brow in a sign of relief that he did not get tagged with it. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 3
Like the previous rounds, Green is not remotely concerned about what comes his direction, even though Gibson landed flush on him a few times towards the end of the round. Gibson keeps his back to the fence, and Green further drives him back with a push kick to the solar plexus. Green aims a low kick and misses on his other, flashier kicks. Gibson reaches out with his own kick, and Green no-sells it. Green lands a couple more front kicks while Gibson is still processing, and he blocks a high kick and points to his arm as if to tell someone watching—like a judge—that it hit him on the arm. Green’s trash talk starts to get louder, and he starts to get a bit more amped up. Gibson stays on his bike, timing a kick from Green to shoot for a takedown. He takes Green to his seat, but Green pushes off and scampers back up within seconds.
Green goes for a right to the ribs, and he scores another right over the top in rapid succession. Gibson’s offense is limited to single strikes, like a huge right hand that Green barely dodges in time. Green strings together a number of punches ending with a solid left, and he starts to walk Gibson down doing the typical Diaz brother strut. Gibson narrowly avoids a one-two, but a second lands on his nose. He has a kick caught, and Green throws him to the wall and then surprises the Canadian by completing a sudden takedown. Green moves himself to north-south position and starts unleashing heavy right hands to the body, and Gibson is warned repeatedly for hooking his toes in the fence links. Smith has to slap at them a few times, all while Green is hammering “Fearless” with concussive hammerfists. The oddball fight ends with Green letting Gibson have it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green (30-27 Green)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Lance Gibson Jr. via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.

"I'll take King Bobby Green."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.

"Bobby Green's side for me, too."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.

Maybe over 1.5 rounds
"Diego is going to be the pick. He's a little bit older, but he's durable, he's dangerous, and he has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.

Ferreira by KO, round 1
"Give me FRA here. And I'm going to take FRA to win this fight by first round knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.

Knockout in round two or three; CDF finishes Green
"I'm going with Carlos Diego Fea. ... I think CDF's got Bobby Green and plus Bobby Green, how many more KO losses can we see?"
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
KO R1 2:07 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)

Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think at this point, I have to feel like even a veteran performance out of Bobby Green is going to be him doing really well for a round, a round and a half, whatever, and just getting melted by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Zane thinks the line is too wide.
"I'm picking it openly because I want it to happen. Yes. I think it's actually, it's a, you know, it is actually quite possible that Bobby Green can can look. Okay. If he, if he doesn't get knocked out, I …"
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:22 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)

Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.

half unit bet on King Green
"I still think Bobby's going to win this fight I think he's going to be the better Striker and I think his takedown defense is going to be good enough"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.

King Green by decision
"Bobby green by decision that seems fairs to me Patty pimin could take a hell of a punch Patty Pimp's not getting submitted I don't think no so Bobby by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.

"I like Bobby green here I I had kind of written him off and I'd faded him a couple of times times too just if we're being honest but like that Jim Miller fight was really impressive"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.

"I'm gonna go Patty here to to squeak one out or to potentially get an early finish"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.

"give me King got to go with King here Bobby green he's going to put it on uh piml piml gets hit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.

King Green by decision
"I think Bobby green should absolutely Cruise here so I'm 100% with you I love Bobby green um I'm prepared for disappointment but yeah him by decision at plus 160."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.

submission, rear-naked choke, round 1-2
"I'm going to go with Patty piml I reckon he's got this one the stars are aligning for this one I reckon and also he went on my channel and I think there's a gift of the guru interview moo …"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.

"give me Jaylen Turner here on short notice to get an early finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.

considering Bobby Green live after first round
"tentatively I'm going to take Jaylen Turner but I am not disagreeing with any of your points I see them all"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.

"I don't mind a dog shot on Bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.

decision win predicted
"give me Bobby green here and I think he ends up pulling off a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.

Bobby Green round three at +2000 considered; already bet Green moneyline at +188
"I already bet Bobby green why well Bobby green was already getting ready for this card he's supposed to take on Dan hooker Dan hooker pulls out Jaylen Turner I mean missed weight last time out at 155 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm gonna go Jalin Turner... he's more versatile... he'll chop low, he'll front kick the body, he'll kick the head... I'll say it will be a decision win 30-27."
Clay Guida - Fight History
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.

"Chase Hooper absolutely smokes here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.

Hooper inside the distance
"Chase Hooper inside the distance... whether it be submission or TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.

"This is just a layup for chase. Hooper. Yeah, it should be right really should be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.

by submission
"I think he's going to come out here and finish Klay Guida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.

submission within first round
"I expect Hooper to submit quido within the first five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.

Hooper by submission (small bet)
"Chase Hooper by submission is somewhat playable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.

Chase Hooper wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm going with Chase Hooper um getting this one done against Klay Guida"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.

"Jay super is gonna beat him using modern technology."
LOSS vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 63 of 252 25% 63 of 252 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 141 of 287 49% 143 of 289 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 23 of 92 25% 23 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 34 of 89 38% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 88 23% 21 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 65 of 110 59% 65 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 19 of 72 26% 19 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 42 of 88 47% 44 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 63 of 252 25% 49 of 227 4 of 12 10 of 13 63 of 252 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 141 of 287 49% 130 of 269 5 of 12 6 of 6 138 of 284 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 23 of 92 25% 16 of 82 2 of 4 5 of 6 23 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 34 of 89 38% 29 of 81 1 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 21 of 88 23% 17 of 80 1 of 4 3 of 4 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 65 of 110 59% 63 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0 62 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 19 of 72 26% 16 of 65 1 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 42 of 88 47% 38 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 2 42 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

"i like claudio playlist to ride out a decision win and he's going to do so with the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Win by submission, first round submission
"I'm actually going to take uh poyus here to win... I'm going to take him to win by submission at some point... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

Live betting opportunity after round 1
"the official pick will ever so slightly be with uh the carpenter clay guido"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Clay Guida

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Included in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault. Also bet on over 2.5 rounds in the totals parlay.
"i'm going clay guido 1.07 units at -107 so pretty much just to win one unit there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

Clay by decision; live betting
"clay clay by decision could be uh good looks and clay in the live market could even could even be better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

third round finish possible
"i am going to go have clay guida here it is a shock to me it is an absolute shock to me that seventy percent of topology are picking claudio poelas here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 58 of 126 46% 70 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 49 of 89 55% 65 of 107 3 of 7 42% 1 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 31 of 66 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Michael Johnson 0 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Clay Guida 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Michael Johnson 0 13 of 24 54% 21 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Clay Guida 0 13 of 33 39% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Michael Johnson 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 58 of 126 46% 52 of 113 5 of 12 1 of 1 47 of 115 6 of 6 5 of 5
Michael Johnson 49 of 89 55% 31 of 71 12 of 12 6 of 6 32 of 72 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 31 of 66 46% 26 of 55 4 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 62 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 29 of 44 65% 21 of 36 5 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 14 of 27 51% 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Michael Johnson 13 of 24 54% 4 of 15 6 of 6 3 of 3 5 of 16 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Clay Guida 13 of 33 39% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 3
Michael Johnson 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

betting advice: leave off parlays
"You've got to go with Johnson here, I think he's one of the least trustworthy fighters I've ever seen... I'm gonna say Johnson wins by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

"i gotta go with michael johnson to get it done um hopefully he does uh don't don't [ __ ] this one up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

Guida by decision; if Guida hits +200 it might be worth a play
"i'm picking clay gordy here i think he wins by decision i think we just see him over and over again just just grind on michael johnson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

first or second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with michael johnson here getting it done he didn't take any damage in his last bout"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by submission in the third round, citing Green's underrated BJJ and Guida's history of being submitted. He thinks Green is better everywhere, especially on the feet with higher volume, and expects Green to hurt Guida and then secure a submission. He notes Guida has been submitted seven times.

pick by submission in third round
"I'm gonna go green with third round submission we've seen weed has submitted many times before"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green, emphasizing his speed, striking volume, and underrated wrestling. He notes that Green has fought tougher competition recently and that Guida is a step down. Levi believes Green's flashy style and takedown defense will be too much for Guida, and he expects a finish or dominant performance.

King Green by finish
"I got Bobby Green here, man."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

Green has fought better opponents and stayed competitive even in losses. Guida has been completely smoked against top competition recently. Green will out-strike Guida every round and win by decision.

"I think Bobby Green gets it done by decision in a close competitive fight but Green just out strikes in every round"