UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 7"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Curtis Blaydes
3.56 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.0 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
5.38 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
31.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexander Volkov
4.78 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.57 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Curtis Blaydes - Fight History
LOSS vs Josh Hokit
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 174 of 302 57% 214 of 345 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:05
Josh Hokit 0 177 of 293 60% 181 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 58 of 108 53% 77 of 128 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:05
Josh Hokit 0 41 of 80 51% 41 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 56 of 91 61% 69 of 106 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Hokit 0 54 of 86 62% 55 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 60 of 103 58% 68 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Hokit 0 82 of 127 64% 85 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 174 of 302 57% 151 of 276 17 of 19 6 of 7 112 of 226 60 of 73 2 of 3
Josh Hokit 177 of 293 60% 164 of 278 13 of 15 0 of 0 146 of 252 31 of 41 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 58 of 108 53% 54 of 104 3 of 3 1 of 1 31 of 76 25 of 29 2 of 3
Josh Hokit 41 of 80 51% 41 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0 37 of 73 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 56 of 91 61% 42 of 77 12 of 12 2 of 2 31 of 62 25 of 29 0 of 0
Josh Hokit 54 of 86 62% 49 of 80 5 of 6 0 of 0 46 of 75 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 60 of 103 58% 55 of 95 2 of 4 3 of 4 50 of 88 10 of 15 0 of 0
Josh Hokit 82 of 127 64% 74 of 118 8 of 9 0 of 0 63 of 104 19 of 23 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-142), Hokit (+120)

Round 1
After alternating wins and losses the last few years, the UFC heavyweight takedown leader Blaydes (19-5, 1 NC; 14-5, 1 NC UFC) is at a real crossroads at the age of 35. While he still has plenty of time left on the clock, his five knockout losses paint a picture of a beard that is more than willing to crack. Rather than face another top-five-level adversary, he goes way down the lineup to welcome the brash, outspoken Hokit (8-0, 2-0 UFC) to the elite of the division. It’s sink or swim for “The Incredible Hok,” who put his name in headlines this week not for his credentials but because of his antics at media day and the weigh-ins. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for this heavyweight affair. With all the strange bad blood brewing between them, largely because of what Hokit had to say recently, there is no touch of gloves.
Hokit practically sprints out of his corner hurling a big right hand, and Blaydes ducks the first but takes the second right on the chin. Blaydes responds with a single-leg takedown attempt, and Hokit stuffs it and flicks him the middle finger. Hokit gets caught when going wild, and he wobbles and swings his way forward and staggers Blaydes and busts his nose to the side. Hokit is swinging with reckless abandon, hurting Blaydes a few times and gashing Blaydes open. Blaydes drops to his hands and posts off to stand up, and Hokit runs at him with his hands down punching him as hard as he can. Blaydes ties him up and drags him to the floor from behind, and he shells Hokit on the sides of the head until Hoki wall-walks by pulling his fingers in the fencing. Dean admonishes him for the foul, and Blaydes pulls him away from it to throw him down. Blaydes keeps hold of him and wears on him, and on his second effort, he drags Hokit to the floor. Hokit is breathing hard and still holding the fence and top of the cage, and Blaydes works him over from under the armpits and the backs of the thighs.
Blaydes transitions to a single, but he cannot get the leg to drag him down. Blaydes boxes Hokit up, who wanders away and flips Blaydes off again. Blaydes jabs and staggers Hokit, who is starting to fade and runs away. Hokit may be playing possum, but Blaydes lets him have it with a frenetic flurry of fists that rivals some of the craziest heavyweight action one could ever see. Blaydes jackhammers Hokit with uppercut after unanswered uppercut, batting Hokit’s head around like a piñata. Hokit hangs on for dear life while Blaydes slows himself down to not gas himself, and both men are sucking serious wind four minutes in. Blaydes punches Hokit in the stomach a few times until they separate, and Hokit once more displays his middle finger. Blaydes walks him down and knocks his mouthpiece out, shelling him with an uppercut and a vicious elbow. Hokit flips one more bird as the round ends, and he raises his arm in the air to drink in the cheers from the crowd. What a ludicrous round that was.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Blaydes

Round 2
Who has more left in the tank after a ridiculous five-minute sprint? Blaydes starts off landing first with a stiff right hand, and Hokit walks him down and busts him in the jaw with his own overhand right. Hokit has his hands low and just wants to brawl, drawing Blaydes into exchanges and stifling the first takedown shot from Blaydes. When he stands up, he flips Blaydes off. Blaydes sticks out his jab and follows one or two, while Hokit lumbers at him and cracks him with an uppercut. Hokit hurls back with a right hand that staggers Blaydes, who is bloodied and bruised but still in this fight. Hokit backs him to the fence and starts delivering fierce uppercuts until he is forced to tie up. Blaydes punches to break out of the clinch, and Hokit gets him back to the body with a right hand and a knee. Blaydes stuns him with a right, Hokit’s head wobbling around like a children’s play toy. Hokit still comes forward and is willing to trade, so Blaydes welcomes this and uppercuts him repeatedly to the chin and midsection.
Blaydes digs a few more to the body before they split up, and he gets knocked back with a one-two. Hokit follows with two more, and Blaydes is on baby deer legs slipping and stumbling across the Octagon. Hokit unleashes a fury and hurts Blaydes for the umpteenth time, and Blaydes is impossibly tough as he takes undefended shots. Blaydes rushes into action and connects with a long stretch of surprisingly powerful punches, and Hokit does not react well when receiving them but still has the wherewithal to keep trading. Hokit goes for a clinch, and Blaydes thanks him for this by elbowing him and driving him a number of uppercuts to the chest and stomach. Hokit hangs on while Blaydes keeps busting him in the chops with uppercuts, and it is Hokit who forces the separation and knees Blaydes flush in the face. Hokit gets off another knee to the belly, and he misses with an uppercut that would fell lesser men. Blaydes keeps to the clinch so he can offer uppercuts, and Hokit bashes him in the chin with a one-two and is met with an equally powerful one. Hokit dances back to his corner at the bell, middle finger waving, and this heavyweight slobberknocker is almost beyond description.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hokit
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hokit
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hokit

Round 3
Hokit raises his arm in the air to pump up the crowd, and when the last round begins, he strides forward to engage. He catches Blaydes a few times, only for Blaydes to rattle his bones with a right hand and a low kick. Blaydes dives after a takedown and falls to the side, so he fights his way back up and proceeds to bash Hokit with punches until they clinch up again. Blaydes uppercuts the torso, while Hokit uses his knees and an elbow once. Blaydes is inspired to us the same for his “Razor” elbows, and he beats Hokit to the punch with a quick one-two. The fighters go punch-for-punch, with Hokit causing further damage as his jab has completely transformed Blaydes into a bloody mess. Blaydes lumbers forward behind two hooks, only one landing, and Hokit gathers a head of steam and connects with a clean uppercut. Hokit keeps his jab going, only stopping when Blaydes racks him up with a right hand. Hokit closes in to land elbows, and Blaydes does the same when in range.
Hokit eats one to land one, and he strings to more together and a knee after it. Elbows are exchanged on the inside, and Hokit breaks off and puts three fists on Blaydes’ face in rapid succession. Blaydes stings Hokit and backs him off, but he does not have the gas tank to hurt him badly. Hokit lands twice, Blaydes closes in to strike him back, and uppercuts come flying from both sides. Blaydes darts out behind a right hand, and he is greeted by a trio of punches. Defense is at a premium while strike totals are off the charts for heavyweights, and Blaydes takes a hard look at the clock that now reads 45 seconds. Hokit does the advancing, hurling punches until Blaydes hits him back. Hokit gets in an elbow when they are up close, and he knees and tees off on Blaydes against the fencing. Blaydes swings back with every thing he has left, and incredibly, these two heavyweights have reached the final bell in what only be described as one of the craziest fights in the history of the division—rivaling the likes of Frye-Takayama and Hunt-Silva. Everyone can now breathe a sigh of relief after that torrid sprint of a battle is over, and these two men can use some oxygen after a sure-fire “Fight of the Year” frontrunner. No matter the victor, Hokit proved that at just nine fights into his professional career, he can hang with the best heavyweights in the world right now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hokit (29-28 Hokit)

The Official Result
Josh Hokit def. Curtis Blaydes via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his experience and wrestling, though he notes Blaydes' poor chin and recent struggles. He is skeptical of Josh Hokit's level of competition and thinks Blaydes can survive early chaos and take over late. He stays away from betting due to the fight's unpredictability.

"Curtis has to be the pick here. I'm likely staying far away from anything that resembles a bet because this fight could go a million different ways."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Big Brady is intrigued by Josh Barnett (Hokit) despite the massive step up in competition. He notes Blaydes has been knocked out five times and has stopped wrestling, while Barnett has shown pressure and power. He thinks Barnett could knock out Blaydes or get takedowns and ground-and-pound. He finds the line weird, expecting Blaydes to be a bigger favorite.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Josh Barnett for the upset... I'm going to say Josh Barnett knocks out Curtis Blaydes for the sixth time. Give me Josh Barnett by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Cody also picks Hokit, emphasizing his athleticism, pace, and wrestling. He thinks Hokit's speed and pressure will overwhelm Blaydes, who has a history of knockout losses and is coming off a knee injury.

"I love Josh Hoget this week. And I had honestly when I first looked at the matchup... I really came away from it being like, okay, Hoget's gonna absolutely kill him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Connor picks Blaydes but is hesitant, noting that Blaydes has unlearned MMA by becoming overly technical and anxious. He points out that Hokit is a raw fighter with speed and power takedowns, but his striking is just bravado. Connor believes Blaydes should win by using his wrestling and pressure, but he worries that Blaydes' anxiety and tendency to overthink could lead to a loss. He says he won't be shocked if Blaydes loses, which is stupid for a fight like this.

Odds comment: Blaydes opened -160, currently -135; Hokit opened +140, currently +115.
"I think I'm still going to pick him. I'm still going to pick him, but I won't be shocked at all if he loses, which is stupid for a fight like this..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Hokit as an underdog, citing Hokit's superior wrestling credentials, athleticism, and speed. He believes Blaydes' chin is compromised after multiple knockouts and that Hokit can catch him. However, he acknowledges the risk due to Blaydes' experience and reach, and is not as confident as his co-hosts.

"I like Barnett here. I think if he's going to win it, he's got to catch him though. He's got to clip him. I'm not as confident as you two about the Barnett win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Daniel is high on Hokit, comparing his style to a young Cain Velasquez. He thinks Blaydes is on the decline, chinny, and coming off a poor performance, while Hokit has better wrestling and faster hands.

"I think that Hokit is the better wrestler. I think Hokit has faster hands. I think Hokit is a lot more confident. And I think Saturday night... Josh Hok is going to come out here and not Curtis Blades the …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host believes Blaydes is a good bet because Hokit is an unknown who has never faced top competition, while Blaydes is arguably the best MMA grappler in the heavyweight division. He notes Hokit's striking looks flat and he lacks power, making it unlikely he can exploit Blaydes' weakness on the feet. Additionally, Hokit's cringey antics add pressure and performance anxiety, which historically few fighters handle well. He caps Blaydes at 60% chance of winning, providing value at the current odds.

Thinks fight likely goes to decision; no specific prop bets mentioned.
"By default, if you have a brain and you have eyes, kind of have to lean Blades pretty heavily here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

James picks Blaydes due to his experience and ability to weather early pressure, expecting Hokit to fade after the first round. He acknowledges Hokit's potential but believes it's too soon for him.

"I'm going to pick Curtis Blades here, but it's a close fight. Skill for skill, it's a close fight, but I got Curtis Blades edging it in round two and round three with his experience advantage and winning a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes is a veteran with superior wrestling and experience. Hokit is a prospect but this is a massive step up in competition. Hokit's cardio is questionable after expending energy in previous fights. Blaydes can outwrestle and outpoint Hokit, and may even finish him in rounds 2 or 3. Hokit lacks the knockout power to threaten Blaydes, who only loses to elite power punchers.

Blaydes wins inside the distance (rounds 2 or 3)
"I'm going to go Blades here. ... I think he gets a finish in round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Paul is very confident in Hokit, citing Blaydes' durability issues, knee injury, and Hokit's superior wrestling and pace. He believes Hokit will swarm Blaydes early and get a finish.

"I think he's I think Hoget's going to kill him. Like, I'm actually quite confident of it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Josh Hokit. He believes Blaydes is too composed and experienced, and Hokit's wins are over unranked heavyweights. He notes Blaydes moves well and has good grappling defense. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, possibly catching Hokit coming in.

"I'm going to go with Blades. I don't see him getting overwhelmed and finished in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Zane picks Blaydes but shares Connor's hesitation, emphasizing Blaydes' psychological decline and tendency to avoid his strengths. He notes that Hokit is a mess but has speed and power, and if Blaydes doesn't wrestle, he could walk into a shot. Zane thinks Blaydes should easily out-grapple Hokit, but his anxiety and poor fight IQ make this a dangerous fight. He hopes for a motivated Blaydes but isn't confident.

Odds comment: Blaydes opened -160, currently -135; Hokit opened +140, currently +115.
"I think I'm still going to pick him. I'm still going to pick him, but I won't be shocked at all if he loses..."
WIN vs Rizvan Kuniev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 56 of 95 58% 101 of 143 2 of 15 13% 0 0 5:21
Rizvan Kuniev 0 45 of 108 41% 58 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 12 of 23 52% 21 of 33 2 of 9 22% 0 0 3:01
Rizvan Kuniev 0 8 of 22 36% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:08
Rizvan Kuniev 0 24 of 52 46% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 28 of 33 84% 61 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:12
Rizvan Kuniev 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 56 of 95 58% 34 of 71 3 of 4 19 of 20 44 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 45 of 108 41% 38 of 100 4 of 5 3 of 3 35 of 93 10 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 12 of 23 52% 7 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 5 7 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 16 of 39 41% 14 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 24 of 52 46% 21 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 7 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 28 of 33 84% 13 of 17 2 of 2 13 of 14 22 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 13 of 34 38% 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Angelo fades Curtis Blaydes, picking Rizvan Kuniev as a lean. He notes that Blaydes has abandoned wrestling and has a weak chin, while Kuniev is decent everywhere and has power. He thinks Kuniev could have success if he gets Blaydes against the cage and drags him down, but acknowledges Blaydes is the bigger favorite. He is not confident in Kuniev but prefers him due to Blaydes' declining career.

Mentions Blaydes' lack of takedowns and chin issues; no specific bet.
"I'm going to fade Curtis Blades here. It just feels like his career is on the wrong slope."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes but with the caveat that Blaydes could get knocked out, as all five of his losses are by KO. He is not sold on Kuniev, who tested positive for PEDs and looks different off them. Brady thinks Blaydes has better cardio and will drag the fight into deep waters, either getting a late finish or winning a decision. He predicts Blaydes by decision.

late finish or decision
"I got to go play Blades here. I think he wins this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Connor picks Blaydes, agreeing that Kuniev's pressure-counter style will lead to clinch exchanges where Blaydes can dominate. He notes that Kuniev is not as dynamic as Almeida, whom Blaydes outwrestled, and that Kuniev's soft physique and lack of athleticism make him a poor matchup for Blaydes. He believes Blaydes should be a much heavier favorite, calling it a 'minus 500 situation.'

Odds comment: Blaydes should be a much heavier favorite, like minus 500.
"I think this is a minus like 500 situation. Honestly, like I think this is a point where blades is just like, it would be pretty remarkable if he lost this."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host notes Blaydes was a -340 favorite in March and now is around -260, which he considers a gift. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will thwart Kuniev's, allowing him to land big shots and outdamage Kuniev, possibly getting a ground-and-pound finish, but official prediction is Blaydes by decision.

"This time around, he finds himself closer to that minus 260 range and I think that's a gift of a line as I think his wrestling will thwart that of the Russians and I think he'll be able to find …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes, criticizing Rizvan Kuniev as a known steroid cheat. He highlights Blaydes' experience, underrated striking, and excellent grappling defense. He predicts Blaydes will win by TKO via ground-and-pound in round two, noting Kuniev's inability to finish or outpoint Blaydes.

Blaydes wins by TKO (ground-and-pound) in round 2
"I'm going with Curtis Blades here. I just think there's too much of an advantage in experience. I don't see Kunv finishing him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Zane picks Blaydes, arguing that Kuniev's style invites wrestling by pressuring and clinching, which plays into Blaydes' strengths. He notes that Kuniev's fight against Kunya showed he allows himself to be clinched and wrestled, and that Blaydes is a much better wrestler than Kuniev. He dismisses concerns about Blaydes' striking-first tendency, as Kuniev's pressure will give Blaydes easy takedown entries.

"I have to pick Curtis blades here because you watch that kunya fight for kunyev. And what is the first thing he let's happen? Yeah, he lets kunya go in and wrestle him."
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
KO (punches) R1 1:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 1 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 1 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 11
Curtis Blaydes 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 11
Curtis Blaydes 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.

"Tom is the much better Striker honestly Tom might work in some takedowns after watching what gton did to him so Tom's got to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.

Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2
"I think most likely result in this fight is Aspen in round one or round two by knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

wins in round 1 by KO
"I'm going Tom Aspen all to knock out Curtis blades in the first round"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.

"I think between his athleticism, the way that he does wrestle when he needs to and just I mean like look at the power in the boxing and that last fight with Pavlovich"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.

"Aspinall is a pick hoping we could get a little better line than we did but sadly we cannot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.

"I took the plus 421 cuz I'm like I'm not going to get a better number than that... top of the food chain or bottom of the food chain heavyweights if you give me like plus 400 pretty much on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by TKO in the first round. He believes Aspinall is better in every way—faster, more powerful, and with better grappling. He dismisses the first fight due to Aspinall's injury and notes that Blaydes didn't land a clean punch. The Guru points to Aspinall's quick submission of Sergei Pavlovich and his ability to finish fights. He also mentions that Jon Jones tossed Blaydes around, suggesting Aspinall can do the same. He expects Aspinall to land a one-two and finish on the feet.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Tom aspel purely because he's the better fighter and he wins this fight 9 times out of 10"
KO (punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 25 64% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 9 of 11 9 of 13 69% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 8 of 8 9 of 12 75% 0 0 4:39
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 16 of 25 64% 16 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Waiting for plus money on Almeida; if he gets plus money, he will place a bet.
"J is going to take him down and Curtis blades isn't Derrick Lewis with the uppercut J is the pick I'm going to be waiting for that line movement tracker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

win by first round submission
"give me Almeida Almeida to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

"it's blades for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

"I'm gonna lean with gton almea just because I think he's more trustworthy but I'm very aware about what could go wrong in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Blaydes by decision
"blades should have the advantages in this matchup blades should be able to drag this fight to the ground or at least stop the takedowns of Almeida hopefully utilize his footwork land some good strikes from the outside and then …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

"I got blades as well just like it seems like stylistically this is his fight to lose"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.

decision
"I'm going to take Jon Alida getting onto the hips of blades and just being better than him ... I think he will win a decision"
TKO (punches) R1 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 1 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Curtis Blaydes 0 14 of 56 25% 14 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 1 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Curtis Blaydes 0 14 of 56 25% 14 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 36 of 85 42% 30 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0 32 of 81 0 of 0 4 of 4
Curtis Blaydes 14 of 56 25% 11 of 51 1 of 1 2 of 4 14 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 36 of 85 42% 30 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0 32 of 81 0 of 0 4 of 4
Curtis Blaydes 14 of 56 25% 11 of 51 1 of 1 2 of 4 14 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blaydes (-170), Pavlovich (+145)

Round 1
The main event is upon us, and it is a heavyweight clash that should not last too terribly long. In the one corner, Russian knockout artist Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC) plies his trade in search of his sixth straight stoppage victory due to strikes. In the other, Blaydes (17-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) seeks his long-awaited championship opportunity, and he answers with 71% of his own wins coming by some variation of knockout. In their combined 34 pro wins, neither man has performed a submission, and it is unlikely to come in this five-rounder. Before trying to knock the other’s melon into the third row, they respectfully touch ‘em up and exchange a stoic nod. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for what comes next…or so he hopes. Blaydes sticks out a jab and a sweeping leg kick in the opening seconds, and Pavlovich is out of the way from that and a subsequent right hand. Pavlovich fires off a right hand, and even hitting the guard, it gets Blaydes’ attention. Pavlovich comes out swinging, and Blaydes counters with a solid check right hook. Blaydes lands two more when Pavlovich is throwing recklessly, making the Russian start to brawl. Pavlovich drills Blaydes with a left, and Blaydes gives it right back without batting an eye. The chins are tested and both make it through the first surges. Blaydes fires off a leg kick after a jab, and it makes Pavlovich drag it out of the way to take some of the sting out of it. Blaydes kicks on the outside to stop this, and Pavlovich winds up with a bomb of a right hand that glances off the side of the head. Blaydes hits the deck, but he pushes up and springs to his feet, seemingly flash knocked down and not hurt. Blaydes attacks the leg, and Pavlovich rocks him with a jab. Pavlovich lets go with a long series of punches, and Blaydes takes several of them flush, gives a few back, and shoots for a takedown. The Russian shuts him down and knocks him back to the wall, where he gets off right hands but his jab might be the one affecting Blaydes more.
Blaydes backpedals, and Pavlovich splits the guard with a shovel uppercut of a right hand. As Pavlovich continues throwing caution to the wind and hurting Blaydes again and again with his fists, a sharp right hand drops Blaydes to the floor. Knowing the finish is right around the corner, Pavlovich punches Blaydes out with four more punishing left hands, and Goddard has seen enough.
This is a major statement for Pavlovich, who has now racked up six straight first-round knockouts – a UFC record at least in the modern era when fights lasted more than one round. Pavlovich very confidently asks where his belt is, and challenges Jon Jones and any other top heavyweight to take him down. If he gets the next crack at the heavyweight crown, we will absolutely be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Curtis Blaydes R1 3:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes because of his elite wrestling, which he believes will be the deciding factor. He notes that Blaydes averages over six takedowns per fight and has fast, clean entries. He acknowledges Pavlovich's dangerous striking and knockout power, but thinks Blaydes can survive the early rounds and then take over with wrestling. He mentions Blaydes' three knockout losses but still favors him. He is not betting on this fight.

No bet on this fight.
"I gotta go Curtis though... Curtis has to be the pick because the wrestling threat is unbelievably real."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, specifically in the first two minutes. He notes that Pavlovich is very live to starch Blaydes early if Blaydes tries to strike. Blaydes has a clear path to victory via takedown, but if he doesn't shoot immediately, Pavlovich's power could end the fight. Brady thinks it's a 50/50 fight but leans Pavlovich because of his knockout power and Blaydes's tendency to fall in love with striking. He also mentions Pavlovich's poor ground game from past fights, but believes the knockout comes first.

first round knockout, first two minutes
"I'm going to take pavlovich here I'm gonna take him to knockout blades in the very first round more specifically like in the first two minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Cody picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his first-round knockout streak and the fact that his only UFC loss was to Overeem in his debut at age 26. He argues Pavlovich has improved since then, trains at Tiger Muay Thai, and has a wrestling background. Cody criticizes Blaydes for sometimes choosing to strike instead of wrestling, as seen against Lewis and Daukaus, and notes that even when Blaydes gets takedowns, he doesn't always do damage. He believes Pavlovich can get back to his feet and land a knockout.

"I'm gonna be siding with pavlovich just because outside of over him and man was that a bad look that's exactly what Curtis blades could do here take him down pound them out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Connor picks Blaydes confidently, arguing that Blaydes does something no other heavyweight does: wrestle with diverse takedowns and control. He points out that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent, as shown when Overeem took him down and he didn't know what to do. He also notes that Blaydes is durable and has weathered big shots before, and that Pavlovich's striking falls apart when he's not winning.

"I have to pick Curtis Blaydes to beat that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Curtis Blaydes has improved striking and distance management, using kicks and combinations to avoid trading in the pocket. He has the wrestling advantage and can take the fight to the ground, where he can control or finish. Pavlovich is a dangerous power puncher but tends to thrive when opponents exchange with him; Blaydes will not do that. The only loss on Pavlovich's record came via Alistair Overeem, who now trains with Blaydes, giving Blaydes insight. Blaydes is the more well-rounded fighter with better tools and experience.

Blaydes by TKO in round 3 or 4
"Curtis blades is again the best heavyweight fighter that has yet to touch UFC gold and he just keeps running into those power punchers... I believe we've seen enough improvements in his game... give me Curtis blades probably by third …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Paul picks Pavlovich as a plus money underdog, citing his first-round finishing streak and heavy hands. He acknowledges Blaydes' wrestling and cardio advantages but believes Pavlovich's power and youth (30 at heavyweight) give him a real chance. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling base and training at Tiger Muay Thai, and points out that Blaydes has been knocked out by power punchers before. Paul also mentions a prop for Pavlovich to win in round one at plus 300.

Pavlovich wins in round 1 (+300)
"I'm actually gonna go with Sergey Popovich as well you're talking about plus Money Heavyweight yeah you can trick me into it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich after initially leaning toward Blaydes. He rewatched Blaydes' fights and found them less impressive, noting Blaydes is skittish against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He believes Pavlovich's takedown defense has improved and that he will hurt Blaydes on the feet, stuff takedowns, and finish him. He predicts a first-round TKO.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go Sergey pavlovich over Curtis blades... I can see pavlovich sparking blades on the feet hurting him stuffing a takedown finishing him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Zane picks Blaydes despite acknowledging Pavlovich's knockout power. He notes that Blaydes is a diverse wrestler who can take down and control heavyweights, and that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent as seen against Overeem. However, he is hesitant because Blaydes has been knocked out before and often spends time standing early, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Pavlovich.

"I'll take the smart pick... I did the smart thing here too and take Curtis Blaydes, but I don't love it."
WIN vs Tom Aspinall
TKO (knee injury) R1 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tom Aspinall 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tom Aspinall 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tom Aspinall 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tom Aspinall 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his next-level wrestling and recent striking improvement. He notes Blaydes has taken down elite heavyweights like Volkov, Overeem, and Hunt, while Aspinall's 100% takedown defense is based on only two defended attempts. He believes Blaydes will have success on the feet but ultimately get takedowns and win. He has a moneyline bet on Blaydes as an underdog.

moneyline bet placed
"i like blades to have some success on his feet but ultimately get the takedowns and get the win i do have a money line bet on him as an underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant. He notes Blaydes is a tough matchup with great wrestling, but Aspinall is the much better striker with power and speed. He questions Aspinall's takedown defense but thinks his BJJ black belt and get-up game could be key. He believes Aspinall can knock Blaydes out early.

Aspinall by KO in round 1
"i'll pick him i'll pick him to win by knockout i'll say tom aspinall to win by a first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody leans towards Tom Aspinall, expecting an early stoppage within the first 10 minutes. He highlights Aspinall's superior hands, pro boxing experience, and size advantage. Cody notes Blaydes' tendency to get complacent striking and his late notice for the fight. He also mentions Aspinall's jiu-jitsu can keep him safe on the ground. Cody plans to live bet Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish early.

live betting: if Aspinall doesn't finish early, bet Blaydes at plus money
"i'm leaning towards the early stoppage i'm thinking that tom hospital maybe goes out there and catches him within the the first 10 minutes of the fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall to win, arguing that Aspinall's speed, variety, and well-rounded game will be too much for Curtis Blaydes. He dismisses the notion that Blaydes can simply extend the fight and win, noting that Blaydes lost the championship rounds against Volkov. Levi emphasizes Aspinall's impressive grappling, including a straight arm lock submission on Volkov, and believes Aspinall's takedown defense and offensive wrestling are underrated. He also mentions the home crowd advantage and Blaydes' potential jet lag.

Mentions that Aspinall might finish Blaydes, but advises against prop bets since the straight bet is already decent value.
"I think that tom aspinall is a lot faster i think that tom aspinall has a lot more variety to his game i think he's more well-rounded"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Aspinall has cardio questions. If Blaydes survives the early onslaught and takes Aspinall down, Aspinall will gas. Blaydes has faced tougher competition and has more tools to win over a longer fight. I see Blaydes finishing Aspinall in the third round via TKO from top position.

under 3.5 rounds -175 (violence play); Blaydes via third round TKO
"I'm gonna go blades and let the hate continue to pour on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul leans towards Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's cardio and performance if taken down multiple times. He notes Blaydes has never been an underdog in the UFC and has strong wrestling and top control. Paul suggests live betting Aspinall early and then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish. He admits he doesn't love the pick and probably won't bet it.

suggests live betting: bet Aspinall early, then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish
"right now i'm kind of leaning towards curtis blades because they're giving me the plus 115 on that side and i just don't know what tom aspinall looks like if he's getting taken down multiple times"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round TKO. He notes Blaydes has a pattern of overcommitting to a strategy and losing. Aspinall is quick, technical, and has a jiu-jitsu background. He will chop the legs, land combos, and time a takedown. Blaydes will get back up but take damage, and Aspinall will finish him late in the first round.

first round TKO
"first round late tko from tom aspinall is what i'm gonna go for there"
WIN vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches) R2 0:17 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 1 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 23 of 53 43% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 30 of 63 47% 23 of 55 1 of 2 6 of 6 24 of 54 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 13 of 38 34% 12 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 23 of 53 43% 17 of 46 0 of 1 6 of 6 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.

"i tend to agree because curtis is such a dominant wrestler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.

Blaydes wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think blades is going to take him down at will, I think blades is going to take him down easily here and eventually break dawkisson and probably finish him in the second or third round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.

puncher's chance for Daukaus by KO
"i think the logical pick would be at blades blades grinds and that's what i'm going with"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.

Blaydes by KO/TKO (ground and pound), fight doesn't go to decision
"I have to favor blades for that reason man... these guys that can attempt takedown after takedown after takedown without getting discouraged... those guys are such a matchup problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.

Blaydes inside the distance; Blaydes round 2 TKO via ground and pound
"i like blades a decent amount on this like i said i think it's very easy to break down this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.

parlay piece
"I got curtis blades to weigh and i think curtis blade wins this fight probably eight out of ten times"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round arm triangle submission over Chris Daukaus. He cites Blaydes' size and wrestling advantage, noting Daukaus hasn't shown his black belt jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The Guru expects Blaydes to be calm due to Daukaus' lack of intimidation, get a double leg, and grind out a submission. He criticizes the 4-1 odds as making betting pointless.

second round arm triangle submission; hates the 4-1 odds
"i'm gonna go with curtis blades here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 32 of 96 33% 113 of 190 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 68 26% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 19 of 42 45% 27 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 28 21% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 8 of 37 21% 43 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:20
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 10 of 31 32% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 17 29% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 2 of 9 22% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 32 of 96 33% 18 of 76 6 of 8 8 of 12 24 of 86 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 68 26% 17 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 1 16 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 19 of 42 45% 10 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 5 11 of 32 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 28 21% 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 1 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 8 of 37 21% 5 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 4 8 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 5 of 17 29% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Angelo suggests looking at inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik. He says he won't bet the moneyline at -330.
"Curtis blades is my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say curtis blaze does win by knockout tko in that first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Blaydes by decision (+200), Rozenstruik by KO (+400)
"i think he gets the victory and i think if i'm trying to sweeten up a straight up curtis blaze play i think you go with him by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

"i'll lean with blades here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

Jacob discusses the strike line, leaning more for Blaydes and less for Rozenstruik. He also mentions inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik.
"blades wins this fight it's going to be copy and paste"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Curtis Blaydes

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Blaydes inside the distance at +120; Blaydes by submission at +1000
"i'm going blade second round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

Blaydes by decision (+200)
"i'll be picking curtis blades here if i had to bet uh this fight and i'm kind of nervous about it for blades in general"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.

second round tko, prop bet on Rozenstruik first round under a minute
"i'll say second round tko for curtis blades"
Alexander Volkov - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 88 of 143 61% 88 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 54 of 130 41% 54 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 33 of 44 75% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 88 of 143 61% 22 of 70 23 of 29 43 of 44 88 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 54 of 130 41% 30 of 91 6 of 13 18 of 26 53 of 129 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 33 of 44 75% 4 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 22 33 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 33 45% 7 of 21 2 of 4 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 34 of 56 60% 13 of 31 7 of 11 14 of 14 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 47 46% 8 of 29 3 of 6 11 of 12 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 8 of 10 8 of 8 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 17 of 50 34% 15 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 6 16 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Angelo mentions Waldo is a dog and he likes a good amount of dogs on this card.
"I'm still picking him. He's a dog. I'm going to run with that. I think the athleticism is really going to be the difference here."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

bet on Waldo at plus 160
"I'm picking Waldo here. I even bet on Waldo at plus 160."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

"I'm leaning Volkov here. I'm going to take Volkov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

"I only got a handful of underdogs that I'm going to back on this card. And sadly, Waldo is one of them."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Connor says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

"I just feel bad that I've counted this guy out so many times. He keeps proving me wrong. I feel like I got to pick him here. And now obviously Volkov's going to win as a result, but I'm gonna …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I'm not going to touch this one from a betting point of view because I think if it does stay standing... this one will be razor close."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Alexander Volkov

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Volkov by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

"Volkov, I don't know if you heard me when he walked away, but he really lose striking matches. So, I got to go Volkov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

"I lean to the Alexander Volkov side in this fight. ... I got Vulov winning via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

"I'll go Volkov and Volkov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

Volkov by submission (plus 2000)
"I still like Volkov here. There's been some money coming in on Waldo. I understand Waldo's pretty fast on the feet."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

"I am going to go with Alexander Vulov, but I love this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Zane says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 24 of 27 88% 123 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:57
Jailton Almeida 0 9 of 10 90% 27 of 33 7 of 9 77% 0 0 10:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 15 100% 38 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:14
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:38
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jailton Almeida 0 4 of 5 80% 9 of 11 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:27
3 Alexander Volkov 0 7 of 8 87% 77 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 5 100% 17 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 24 of 27 88% 19 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 17
Jailton Almeida 9 of 10 90% 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 15 100% 15 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 15
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jailton Almeida 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Alexander Volkov 7 of 8 87% 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 5 of 5 100% 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.

"Jailton's wrestling at heavyweight is literally the best we have ever seen. ... I think he gets Volkov to the ground immediately. And I think he has him in trouble. I'm going to pick Jailton."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.

Almeida by first round submission
"I like Jailton here. I think he gets this fight down to the mat. I think he gets to a dominant position. I think he unloads with some ground and pound, and I think he eventually submits Alexander Volkov in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.

"I'm digging a little squeeze here. I'm digging a little squeeze. Can you be super confident? No, no. It's a middling heavyweight fight. But I got a path to victory here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to pick Volkov here. He just doesn't lose that many fights by getting submitted quickly. And I don't trust, uh, Almeida to just be able to easily positionally dominate him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.

wins by submission
"I'm going to pick Jelton Almeida to come out here, take down Alexander Volkov, submit him, and secure himself that UFC title shot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.

"I'm going to pick Alexander Volkov because I'm going to pick the value side, but I'm actually predicting Jolton to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Almeida will be able to chuck that off, get to his dominant positions, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.

"I agree with those the those sentiments. I mean, yeah, Jailton sub early is is definitely always on the table. Very good at getting those takedowns early. The cardio is falling off, especially when he really has to press."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.

Volkov by late rounds TKO; Volkov is an underdog
"I'm going to go with Alexander Volkov late rounds finish against Jailton Almeida."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.

"I'll pick Almeida. I'll pick Almeida. Oh, I'm checking it out. All right. Well, now, now, you know what this means. We're both going to be wrong."
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 43 of 61 70% 48 of 66 2 of 4 50% 2 0 3:40
Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 71 54% 105 of 140 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 12 of 15 80% 17 of 20 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:38
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 14 71% 12 of 18 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:34
2 Ciryl Gane 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Alexander Volkov 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Ciryl Gane 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Alexander Volkov 0 4 of 10 40% 68 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 43 of 61 70% 14 of 30 10 of 11 19 of 20 40 of 57 0 of 1 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 39 of 71 54% 19 of 46 18 of 20 2 of 5 36 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 12 of 15 80% 3 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 10 of 14 71% 2 of 5 7 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 27 of 39 69% 9 of 19 5 of 6 13 of 14 27 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 25 of 47 53% 14 of 32 10 of 12 1 of 3 23 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.

"croan wins this fight the exact same way he won the first one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.

Gane by decision; Volkov by submission (small bet)
"I think Gane, Gane by decision... I took a little bit of Volkov by submission at 22-to-1."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.

Gane opened at -235, currently -342; Volkov opened at +202, currently +283. Connor thinks Gane should be a much heavier favorite.
"We saw this fight. He should be a massive favorite. He won it super easily."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.

"um give me gone here um volov I it's actually what I said yesterday about uh the brand new brand fight volov used to be much bigger or at least longer than his opponent it's not really the case here …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.

"I'm a pick gone, I understand why someone would want to take the shot on Vulkov."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.

"I'm going to mix it up I'm going to take the value on Alexander volov here there it is I I think and I'm not like super sold on volov here but like in his last few fights he's looked …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.

wins by decision, 49-46
"I think it's going to be a 4-1 decision I'll call 49 46 in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting gone to utilize his footwork speed and striking to get the better of volov once again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.

"I think Gane, Gane by decision... it'll be two heavyweights in a pure striking battle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.

"I'm G to go with sirel G in the rematch here volov could get it done I wasn't going to pick him the first time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.

"Cyril Gane is simply better at the kind of game that Volkov has spent his whole career playing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 46 of 134 34% 46 of 134 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sergei Pavlovich 0 83 of 159 52% 83 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergei Pavlovich 0 26 of 50 52% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergei Pavlovich 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 16 of 52 30% 16 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sergei Pavlovich 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 46 of 134 34% 38 of 120 7 of 13 1 of 1 46 of 134 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 83 of 159 52% 35 of 89 16 of 28 32 of 42 83 of 159 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 43 34% 14 of 40 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 26 of 50 52% 9 of 25 6 of 10 11 of 15 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 10 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 31 of 55 56% 9 of 24 6 of 12 16 of 19 31 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 16 of 52 30% 14 of 47 1 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergei Pavlovich 26 of 54 48% 17 of 40 4 of 6 5 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.

Bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money
"I think volov wins this fight I think the 6'7 kickboxer who also has highlevel MMA experience wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.

win by first round knockout
"give me padovich first round knockout that's that's how he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.

"I got to go volov I got to go volov furthermore maybe good live betting opportunity volov"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.

"I'm gonna go vov because I think that's the play in terms of like if you're laying money on this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.

Advises staying away from betting
"I'm going vov here obviously I'm getting worried about it but um you know like I said if Serge's Palm punches like I saved Angelo's life he's going to end up losing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.

Pavlovich first round KO (Brevan may bet this prop)
"I think he's going to clip volov I think he's putting him out KO TKO pavlovich all the way"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.

Volkov is a live underdog in my opinion
"I'm going to go with pavlovic over vov I think I reckon he'll be able to catch him on the feet Jabs I think he'll go to the body a bit more as well."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R2 4:37 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 28 of 67 41% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 93 of 143 65% 107 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 51 of 83 61% 53 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Alexander Volkov 0 13 of 28 46% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 42 of 60 70% 54 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 28 of 67 41% 4 of 31 7 of 9 17 of 27 26 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 93 of 143 65% 65 of 110 18 of 21 10 of 12 72 of 115 3 of 3 18 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 0 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 16 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 83 61% 29 of 56 13 of 16 9 of 11 50 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 13 of 28 46% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 11 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 42 of 60 70% 36 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 33 2 of 2 18 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)

Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.

Half unit parlay with Justin Tafa at plus money
"I've got to go volkov here but I imagine the rest of the community and myself are also going to be rooting for Tai tuivasa to get a one punch knockout walk off I don't see it happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'm gonna pick the dog and tie to evoss and to land a big shot and knock out Alexander volkov here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes (later moved to 31.5) on Prize Picks
"the official pick I think has to be volkov on the basis of superior Striker better volume better grappling better cardio uh man it's heavyweight Paul so I'm gonna take volkov but again as far as parlays go I need …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.

Odds mentioned: Volkov minus 250, Tuivasa plus 210. Levi says he is not putting his money on it.
"As a pure pick I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take volkov uh just like you said more volume more ways to win but it's not a confident pick I'm not putting my money on it and I'm …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.

"I think Alexander volkov is quite safe in this spot I think volkov is levels above title of us"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.

Volkov by KO
"give me volkov uh volkov to win impressively here and I think he does it by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think from a betting perspective it's tired it's it's Stewie vosser past maybe it's just like my heart's in it because I'm a shoe Aficionado as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.

TKO in round 2 via front kick to the body
"I'm gonna go Alexander volkov TKO round two"
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)

Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round you see …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can make it …"
TKO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)

Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

"i'm gonna side with volkov here i trust his fight iq i trust his move around long striking style to keep him out of danger"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Rozenstruik by KO +200 (mentioned as alternative)
"volkov volkov for the win volkov by decision for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Volkov by decision, over 3.5 rounds
"i got volkov i got vocal by decision i got the over three and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Rozenstruik by knockout +210; one-unit bet
"i'm going with the underdog here i'm not sitting here saying it's max best season i'm not sitting here saying to make a big bet but you know plus 140 plus 145 odds i might take a one unit shot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

Volkov by decision (if available, likely around -200)
"i really struggle to see how jairzinio wins a a decision against alexander volkov so yeah volkov for me minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

"i think he's going to keep rose and strike at range rose and strikes gonna hesitate against a massive opponent"
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
Submission (straight armbar) R1 3:45 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 0 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkov 0 29 of 43 67% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 0 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkov 0 29 of 43 67% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 13 of 23 56% 6 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Volkov 29 of 43 67% 16 of 30 5 of 5 8 of 8 16 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 13 of 23 56% 6 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Volkov 29 of 43 67% 16 of 30 5 of 5 8 of 8 16 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall

Round 1
In extremely hostile territory, Russian striker Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) will compete as one half of the main event against surging British upstart and pure finisher Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC). The partisan crowd has been treated to plenty of locals getting their hand raised thus far tonight, and they hope to end the night with the Team Kaobon fighter out of Manchester getting it done once more. Referee Marc Goddard will serve as the final Octagon ranger of the evening, and a cool hand shake is exchanged before the two inflict powerful heavyweight violence on one another. Aspinall starts first with several quick punches, landing a trio of shots on the chin as Volkov is caught standing still. Volkov backs off to get into his preferred range, landing leg kicks and checking one of his own. The Brit surges forward, grabbing hold of his opponent and wrenching him down to the mat. Landing in side control one minute into the round, Aspinall elects to step into half guard and hack down with short elbows. Volkov is already cut from these elbows on the side of his head, and Aspinall continues working on it. Aspinall lets go with his other hand, slamming down fists and elbows as Volkov struggles to work his way to the fence. When the Russian sits up, Aspinall isolates a two-on-one wrist lock to try to hunt for a kimura, but Volkov straightens his arm and fights back up to his feet. Aspinall resets, and Volkov chips at him with a leg kick and a right hand as Aspinall advances with a hacking standing elbow. Aspinall attacks the leg and stands right in front of his opponent, throwing strikes, and Volkov is frozen watching it happen. Aspinall throws a kick and falls to the ground, and although Volkov runs over to try to capitalize on the position, Aspinall rolls and stands back up to high five Volkov. The Brit gathers his footing and rushes in, hitting a tackle of a double-leg takedown to put the Russian down to the canvas again.
Instead of hunting for ground-and-pound, Aspinall immediately goes after Volkov’s left arm. Briefly considering a kimura again, Aspinall changes it up to lock up a straight armbar, and Volkov taps out frantically when his elbow hyperextends.
The Team Kaobon fighter releases, and he sprints to the cage wall to climb it alongside teammate Darren Till. This is unquestionably a breakout performance for the instant heavyweight contender, blowing through a durable, crafty veteran while barely breaking a sweat. What a major turn of events in a fight card full of them, closing out a thrilling card that very well will be involved in “Event of the Year” conversations in nine-plus months. In his post-fight conversation with commentator Michael Bisping, the victorious Aspinall challenges Tai Tuivasa to drink beer with him – and fight – when the promotion returns to England. Should that come together, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Alexander Volkov R1 3:45 via Submission (Straight Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.

moneyline bet at -110
"i like aspinall here but we will absolutely find out if he's more hyped than substance because volkov always shows up and he is not an easy win for anyone but i am going with the brit tom aspinall here …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.

late knockout
"give me alexander volkov to knock out tom aspinall later the fight goes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.

"aspinall is the pick for me but i haven't put any money on it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.

Bet Aspinall at +110 before line flipped
"I got dog odds on a guy who i think has a big speed advantage i think he's got a confidence advantage"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.

Volkov via TKO round 3; under 3.5 rounds; live bet Volkov after round 1
"I love Volkov in this spot... I think Volkov gives him a veteran lesson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.

"i'm taking alexander vogel"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The Guru picks Tom Aspinall despite the close odds, citing Aspinall's speed, power, and grappling pedigree. He notes Volkov's vulnerability to being cracked, referencing Derrick Lewis's knockout, and believes Aspinall's team focus (after Darren Till left) will elevate him. He also mentions potential hometown judging bias in the UK. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Aspinall landing a 1-2 straight down the pipe.

first round TKO
"i'm going to go with tom aspinall here... i think he's going to crack volkov out there in the first round by tko"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by third-round TKO via ground-and-pound. He believes Blaydes will take Volkov down at will and finish him, noting Blaydes' excellent cardio and wrestling. He thinks Volkov's takedown defense will be insufficient and that Blaydes is one of his most confident picks on the card.

odds: Blaydes minus 390, Volkov plus 320; pick by TKO in third round
"I like Curtis blades here a lot I think he's one to take down volkov you know at will"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, emphasizing his dominant wrestling and takedown records. He notes that Blaydes' only losses are to Francis Ngannou and that he should stick to his wrestling game plan rather than striking with Volkov. Levi cautions that if Blaydes tries to stand and trade, Volkov has a path to victory, but expects Blaydes to win via grinding takedowns and ground and pound.

Curtis Blaydes by finish
"I'm going to go with the favorite, Curtis Blaydes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes has been looking really good recently, with improving stand-up and power. Volkov's last performance against Greg Hardy was not dominant enough, and he backs up too much, which will be exploited in the smaller cage. Blaydes will trap him against the cage, take him down, and finish with ground-and-pound in the third round.

"I think blades is gonna get the job done on the feet Volkov doesn't seem to have any threatening ko power... blades is gonna get the job done by TKO ground-and-pound in the third round"