Career Averages - Gillian Robertson
Career Averages - Cortney Casey
Gillian Robertson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 42 of 105 | 40% | 63 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 52 of 108 | 48% | 78 of 145 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 8:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 22 of 55 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 41 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 4:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 42 of 105 | 40% | 23 of 84 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 52 of 108 | 48% | 33 of 72 | 5 of 18 | 14 of 18 | 28 of 76 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 14 of 38 | 36% | 8 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 25 of 61 | 40% | 13 of 48 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 20 of 47 | 42% | 11 of 32 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 17 of 29 | 58% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 |
Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.
Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.
Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.
Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.
This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.
Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.
Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 41 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 77 of 105 | 73% | 122 of 156 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 36 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 31 | 87% | 48 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:49 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 13 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 38 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 21 of 52 | 40% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 77 of 105 | 73% | 67 of 94 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 81 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 23 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 24 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 31 | 87% | 22 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 23 of 31 | 74% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 27 |
Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.
Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.
Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.
The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 49 of 91 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:06 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 33 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 33 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 23 of 39 | 58% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 26 |
| Polyana Viana | 12 of 41 | 29% | 10 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Polyana Viana | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
| Polyana Viana | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Robertson (-230), Viana (+190)
Round 1
Strawweight grapplers are up next, with Robertson trying to even things up at 2-2 for Team Canada against her Brazilian counterpart. The referee is Kevin Macdonald. Both women are in orthodox stance, and Viana is the first to land, sticking Robertson with a long jab. They exchange jabs and Viana punctuates with a body kick. Robertson times a nice single-leg and hauls Viana down with ease. Robertson is on top in Viana’s half guard, leaning across her body and elbowing the ribs. Viana locks down the left leg and Robertson works for a straight armlock on the far arm. Robertson gives up on the arm attack and goes heavy on top, working to pass her guard as she does. Robertson throws two elbow strikes and slides right into mount. A couple more elbow strikes and Viana turns to the side. Robertson applies an arm-triangle choke and tries to move out to the side to finish. Viana manages to regain guard, but gives up her back a moment later. A minute to go in the round and Robertson is in back mount. She goes supine, rolls Viana on top of her, and Viana gives up mount. Robertson peels off for an armbar. It’s locked in and close to danger territory, but Viana extricates her arm and escapes. They return to their feet at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Round 2
Viana lands a low kick and slips the counter coming back her way. Viana tags Robertson with a straight right, then another, both of which glance off the guard. Robertson steps in, grabs a single-leg and gets another effortless takedown. She moves quickly to mount and Viana turns her back. Robertson is on top, drops an elbow and is in position to look for a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Robertson throws several hard punches that bounce off the forearm but still rattle the Brazilian’s head.
Robertson is all over Viana at the halfway point of the round, landing ground-and-pound. She keeps pouring it on and after 10 or more solid blows with no reaction from the turtled Viana, Macdonald steps in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Gillian Robertson def. Polyana Viana R2 3:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.
Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.
I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.
The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 100 of 315 | 31% | 101 of 318 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 76 of 219 | 34% | 78 of 225 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 30 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 48 | 25% | 14 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 31 of 114 | 27% | 31 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 36 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 40 of 121 | 33% | 40 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 28 of 85 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 100 of 315 | 31% | 59 of 257 | 17 of 25 | 24 of 33 | 95 of 306 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 76 of 219 | 34% | 31 of 150 | 24 of 40 | 21 of 29 | 74 of 212 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 29 of 80 | 36% | 17 of 60 | 2 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 48 | 25% | 4 of 34 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 31 of 114 | 27% | 16 of 94 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 112 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 36 of 86 | 41% | 14 of 56 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 18 | 35 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 40 of 121 | 33% | 26 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 37 of 117 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 28 of 85 | 32% | 13 of 60 | 11 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her strength, pressure, and superior grappling. He believes Ricci is too strong for Gillian Robertson to take down and will be the better grappler on the ground. He has half a unit on Ricci at -121 and notes the line has yo-yoed. He sees Ricci as the next evolution of the wrestle-boxer style.
Big Brady leans towards Tabatha Ricci, believing she will be the better wrestler and striker. He notes Robertson's poor takedown defense (25%) and tendency to accept being on her back. He thinks Ricci's Judo background and BJJ black belt will allow her to get takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes her grappling credentials but acknowledges her struggles against good wrestlers. He thinks the plus money is worth it and expects a close fight.
Connor picks Ricci because she is strong, an excellent grappler, and increasingly comfortable on the feet. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Connor also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Daniel Levi picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her ability to keep the fight standing or wrestle in reverse. He notes Robertson's submission threat but thinks Ricci's jiu-jitsu and physicality can neutralize it. He believes Ricci has more paths to victory and can survive on the ground if needed.
The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision. He believes Ricci is a superior grappler and wrestler who will get top position and control Robertson. He notes Robertson's tendency to play off her back and thinks Ricci will be too privy to her submission attempts. He expects Ricci to dominate the fight with top control and win a decision.
Paul picks Ricci, citing her striking advantage and top control. He notes her training with Mackenzie Dern and thinks she can avoid Robertson's submissions. He mentions he already bet Ricci at -125.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson over the majority pick Tabatha Ricci. He believes Robertson's length and reach advantage will allow her to lead the dance, and she does more damage on the ground with ground and pound. He thinks both are grapplers but Robertson's aggression and experience will win her a split decision based on damage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Ricci. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Zane also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 46 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 14 | 92% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 26 of 39 | 66% | 20 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 33 | 36% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 14 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.
Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.
Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.
Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.
Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.
Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.
Cortney Casey - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 81 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 33 of 86 | 38% | 80 of 146 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 36 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 55 of 117 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 15 of 26 | 14 of 18 | 54 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 33 of 86 | 38% | 17 of 52 | 2 of 7 | 14 of 27 | 28 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 35 | 45% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 20 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 24 of 57 | 42% | 9 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 37 | 24% | 5 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 29 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 89 of 218 | 40% | 124 of 257 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 34 of 154 | 22% | 57 of 184 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 53 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 9 of 47 | 19% | 13 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 8 of 45 | 17% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 37 of 90 | 41% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 18 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 89 of 218 | 40% | 61 of 173 | 12 of 25 | 16 of 20 | 86 of 213 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Liana Jojua | 34 of 154 | 22% | 29 of 143 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 145 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 29 of 67 | 43% | 19 of 53 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Liana Jojua | 9 of 47 | 19% | 8 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 23 of 61 | 37% | 14 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Liana Jojua | 8 of 45 | 17% | 7 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 37 of 90 | 41% | 28 of 74 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liana Jojua | 17 of 62 | 27% | 14 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Cortney Casey due to her higher level of competition and more technical striking. He acknowledges that Jojua has a path to victory through grappling but notes her poor takedown ability. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide and considers this a close fight, but picks experience.
Big Brady is confident in Cortney Casey, criticizing Liana Jojua's poor striking defense, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Jojua was dominated by Sarah Morris and Miranda Maverick, and while Casey has a mediocre record, she has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Casey to have a striking advantage and predicts a TKO in the second round as Jojua fades.
Cody is betting against Jojua, not for Casey. He notes Jojua's poor performances and long layoff. He thinks Casey's volume and experience should win, but he's not confident because Casey is 9-9 and hasn't won in two years. He advises caution and checking weigh-ins.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey, noting that Jojua's takedowns are not strong and most of her wins come by armbar off her back, which Casey has not been submitted by. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense but believes she is the tougher fighter and has beaten higher-level competition. Levi says he would never bet Casey at -240 but still picks her to win.
Jacob picks Liana Jojua as his lock of the week, believing she will use offensive wrestling to take Casey down and control her. He notes that Casey has been taken down in recent fights and thinks Jojua's grappling is superior. Jacob is very confident in this pick.
Paul thinks Casey is far more skilled than Jojua, who has poor stand-up and is hittable. He expects Casey to win by volume and experience. He notes Casey's grappling is adequate and Jojua's only path is a submission, which is unlikely.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey by submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round. He expects Casey to out-strike Jojua on the feet, then reverse a takedown attempt and secure the choke. Jojua's nose and eye will be bloodied from Casey's pressure and clinch work.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 55 of 131 | 41% | 121 of 202 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 45 of 80 | 56% | 58 of 99 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 51 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 43 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 55 of 131 | 41% | 35 of 107 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 45 of 114 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 45 of 80 | 56% | 41 of 74 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 64 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 40 | 52% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 27 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 19 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 66 | 40% | 23 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 62 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 25 of 43 | 58% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is not confident, calling it a close fight. He notes that Casey has terrible takedown defense (37%) and Aldrich could exploit that by mixing in takedowns, though Aldrich rarely attempts them. He sees the striking as near 50-50 with a slight edge to Aldrich. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28 split, and advises against betting on this fight.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey reluctantly, reasoning that if there are no takedowns, Casey's higher output could edge a split decision. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense and questionable decisions, but notes that JJ Aldridge rarely shoots for takedowns and has been stopped standing. He believes Casey's toughness and volume could be enough in a striking match.
Lock loves Aldrich's fighting style, noting she moves forward, throws combinations with heat, and has good technique. He mentions her close fight with Sabina Mazo that could have gone her way. He thinks she can cause Casey issues on the feet and is confident at -140. He questions Casey's recent form.
The Guru initially changes his mind mid-sentence but ultimately picks Cortney Casey as an underdog. He believes Casey's experience against tougher competition gives her an edge, and he criticizes JJ Aldridge's losses, particularly to Macy Barber and Sabina Mazo. He expects a scrappy fight where Casey secures a submission, specifically an armbar, in the second round. He notes that Casey has fought better opponents and her losses look better than Aldridge's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 113 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 41 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 11:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 40 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 4 of 20 | 20% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 22 of 55 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 21 of 50 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 3 of 13 | 23% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 16 | 75% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 14 of 29 | 48% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 4 of 20 | 20% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson by decision, expecting her to take Cortney Casey down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. He notes Casey's poor takedown defense and believes Robertson will avoid striking exchanges. He acknowledges Casey's submission threat from bottom but thinks Robertson will be safe on top and may even get a ground-and-pound finish.
Daniel Levi leans toward Cortney Casey, acknowledging she will be taken down but believing she has a good guard and submission threats. He notes that Gillian Robertson checks out if she can't get an early sub, and Casey can win on the feet or via submission. Levi warns that betting Casey requires accepting early takedowns, but sees value at plus money.
Casey has momentum and is bigger with a reach advantage. Robertson has a good ground game but Casey is stronger. Casey will get a submission in the first round, though it's a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 21 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 21 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Mara Romero Borella by decision, noting that Borella has a takedown advantage and Casey has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges that on the feet Casey is likely better, but believes Borella can get takedowns and control time on the ground. He mentions that Borella is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but still favors her due to the grappling edge.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey. He notes that Casey is the far superior fighter and tougher, despite her questionable fight IQ. He believes Borella lacks chin and confidence, and if she can't get takedowns, she loses. He expects Casey to give up early takedowns but eventually land a big shot and win.
The host picks Mara Romero Borella, though he admits both fighters are not great. He cites Borella's physical advantages (shorter with longer reach) making it harder for Casey to get inside. He predicts a close, uneventful decision win for Borella.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 73 of 176 | 41% | 73 of 177 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 82 of 192 | 42% | 82 of 192 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Calvillo | 73 of 176 | 41% | 41 of 136 | 6 of 8 | 26 of 32 | 72 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 82 of 192 | 42% | 41 of 139 | 17 of 24 | 24 of 29 | 79 of 186 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cynthia Calvillo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 14 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 32 of 62 | 51% | 10 of 37 | 8 of 11 | 14 of 14 | 29 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cynthia Calvillo | 22 of 52 | 42% | 12 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 28 of 63 | 44% | 15 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cynthia Calvillo | 27 of 66 | 40% | 15 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 12 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 22 of 67 | 32% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 22 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 111 of 333 | 33% | 117 of 341 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 121 of 222 | 54% | 123 of 224 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 29 of 98 | 29% | 29 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 33 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 43 of 113 | 38% | 47 of 117 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 39 of 122 | 31% | 41 of 125 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 111 of 333 | 33% | 80 of 290 | 17 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 100 of 321 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Angela Hill | 121 of 222 | 54% | 65 of 156 | 34 of 41 | 22 of 25 | 110 of 211 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 29 of 98 | 29% | 22 of 89 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Angela Hill | 33 of 65 | 50% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 43 of 113 | 38% | 30 of 95 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 104 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 41 of 75 | 54% | 21 of 52 | 13 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 38 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 39 of 122 | 31% | 28 of 106 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 122 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 47 of 82 | 57% | 28 of 58 | 14 of 18 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The strawweights come to the center of the cage, ready to go. Hill is moving quite a bit early, giving Casey plenty of angles. “Overkill” peppers the taller fighter with a quick combo upstairs, but there’s not behind it. During an exchange, Casey stumbles back and sits down; Hill lets her up. Hill goes with a slick left hook to the face, followed by a right low kick. Hill walks into a straight left, but she counters that with a left low kick. A hard right leg kick by “Overkill” follows but Casey storms back with a left and a right to the face. The two begin opening up much more and tag each other with punches to the head. Casey eats a few more punches and then opts for a takedown. Casey ties Hill up against the cage and drags her foe to the canvas. Hill wastes no time and latches on an armbar, but the Phoenix-based fighter stacks her nicely to fend it off. Casey perfectly executes the armbar escapes, but she is immediately attacked by Hill, who shoots in for a double. Back on their feet late in the round, the ladies trade solid punches. Hill tags Casey with a pair of rights to the face to seal the round in her favor. 10-9 Hill.
Round 2
The women pick up where they left off from the end of the first and trade hard punches to the head. Hill gets the better of the initial exchange, forcing Casey to shoot in for a takedown. Hill stuffs her long enough to separate and regroups to the center of the Octagon. Hill slams a left hook and right leg kick onto the taller fighter, but the Casey counters with a straight right to the jaw that snaps Hill’s head back. “Overkill” settles down and pops her foe’s head back with a series of jabs, but the Phoenix-based fighter answers with a slurry to the head and body. Casey ducks under a left hook and shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Overkill” does a splendid job defending it and eventually separates back to the center of the cage. Hill is bleeding from the nose, but she connects with a left hook to the jaw that briefly rocks Casey. “Cast Iron” backs off but Hill chases after her. Hill lands a straight left up top and narrowly avoids a knee to the face in return. Hill lands an overhand elbow to the head during an exchange just before the horn, capturing another round. 10-9 Hill.
Round 3
Casey, likely sensing she desperately needs this round, comes out aggressively. Hill sees it and tags her with a sweeping left hook to the jab. “Cast Iron” shakes it off and goes low with a kick before coming back upstairs with a right-left that is blocked. “Overkill” clips her foe with a right behind the ear, but it doesn’t seem to faze Casey that much. Hill has some swelling around her left eye as she digs a flurry to the body. Casey, in return, fires off a pair of rights to the head. At the midway point, Hill is moving around the cage nicely; Casey seems to be growing frustrated. A stiff left jab from “Overkill” backs off the charging Casey, who then has to swallow a right cross. Hill delivers a shot to the gut just as Casey tries closing the gap. With a minute left, Casey needs to go for broke her, but “Overkill” is playing it smart by staying just out of range. Hill tags her opponent with three left jabs, a right cross and then a left to the body. Casey tries to fire back, but Hill is nowhere to be found. They trade punches for the final few moments of the fight, but nothing is too severe. 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).
The Official Result
Cortney Casey-Sanchez def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 61 of 84 | 72% | 77 of 103 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:05 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 36 of 96 | 37% | 64 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 1:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 23 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 27 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 61 of 84 | 72% | 30 of 49 | 13 of 15 | 18 of 20 | 41 of 61 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 16 |
| Cortney Casey | 36 of 96 | 37% | 22 of 79 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 22 of 82 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 23 of 36 | 63% | 11 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 |
| Cortney Casey | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 16 of 21 | 76% | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Cortney Casey | 11 of 25 | 44% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 27 | 81% | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson by decision, expecting her to take Cortney Casey down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. He notes Casey's poor takedown defense and believes Robertson will avoid striking exchanges. He acknowledges Casey's submission threat from bottom but thinks Robertson will be safe on top and may even get a ground-and-pound finish.
Daniel Levi leans toward Cortney Casey, acknowledging she will be taken down but believing she has a good guard and submission threats. He notes that Gillian Robertson checks out if she can't get an early sub, and Casey can win on the feet or via submission. Levi warns that betting Casey requires accepting early takedowns, but sees value at plus money.
Casey has momentum and is bigger with a reach advantage. Robertson has a good ground game but Casey is stronger. Casey will get a submission in the first round, though it's a close fight.
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