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Age 28
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Song Yadong
4.42 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.94 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.78 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marlon Vera
4.18 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
5.34 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Song Yadong - Fight History
Play-by-Play
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Yadong Song vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Song (-550); Figueiredo (+425)

Round 1
Help us, Song Yadong, you’re China’s only hope for a win on home soil. The main event sees “The Kung Fu Kid” (22-9-1, 1 NC; 11-4-1 UFC) trying to make the elusive step up to true title contention against former flyweight great Figueiredo (25-6-1; 14-6-1 UFC). For those keeping track at home, we’re also sitting at a blistering seven first-round finishes in 12 fights. The final referee assignment of the evening falls to Jason Herzog. Song is orthodox, Figueiredo as well, but the Brazilian is switching stances constantly in the early going. Subjectively, Figueiredo gives up some size to the burly Song, but it’s far from the biggest size disparity we’ve seen tonight. I’m writing these side notes because, through 90 seconds, neither man has really committed to more than a single probing strike here and there. Song bursts forward into the pocket with a big right cross, but Figueiredo slips and most of the impact misses him. Song reaches out with a jab to the midsection, then an outside calf kick. Figueiredo is still moving laterally, switching stances, and remaining well within range, but through three minutes, he’s still barely throwing. Figrueiredo changes levels for a takedown attempt, but Song slides out of range without even needing to sprawl. With under a minute to go, Song is stalking forward at a deliberate pace, reaching out with his jab anytime he gets within range. Song throws a strike and slips on an Octagon decal. The savvy Figueiredo takes advantage instantly, diving into Song’s guard, but there’s less than 30 seconds left and he can’t get anything going before the horn sounds on a frankly weird and tentative round.
10-9 Song

Round 2
Figueiredo comes out in southpaw to open Round 2, and he flicks out a left high kick that clatters off of Song’s arm and shoulder. Song steps back out of range of a spinning attack, and the two grin briefly and slap hands before returning to work. Song lands an overhand right, then touches the lead right leg of southpaw Figueiredo with a slapping calf kick. Figueiredo enters the pocket, possibly looking for a takedown, and they practically tumble past each other. They reset in the middle of the cage (and the middle of the round) and Song lands a calf kick that buckles his foe’s left leg. Figueiredo tries to change levels and Song, again, is just not there. There’s a minute left in the round, and Figueiredo simply hasn’t gotten off much offense of the feet.
Figueiredo drops for a double-leg, shooting right into Song’s front headlock. There might be a tear in Urijah Faber’s eye as Song drops to his seat with an airtight guillotine choke that is vintage Team Alpha.
Figueiredo is tapping frantically in seconds, and the Galaxy Arena explodes with jubilation as its favorite fighting son jumps up to celebrate.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Deiveson Figueiredo R2 4:42 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ picks Song Yadong, citing his hand speed, explosiveness, and youth (10 years younger). He thinks Figueiredo is past his prime and hasn't looked good since 2024, with a split decision win over Montel Jackson. Song's only recent losses are to Sean O'Malley and Petr Yan. AJ believes Song will outwork Figueiredo over five rounds, possibly with a TKO, but notes Figueiredo is durable. He sees Song winning in all phases.

Song Yadong KO at +110; Song Yadong win over 1.5 rounds at -240; Song Yadong at -550
"I think Song Yadong is going to be able to explode big punches on him in punching range. ... I think Song Yadong every single phase of this fight, and um you know, it it it's either going to go …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ picks Song Yadong as a confident pick, citing age advantage (28 vs 38), physicality, and hand speed. He notes Figueiredo's power hasn't translated well to bantamweight and that Song is an underrated wrestler. AJ expects a stoppage or dominant decision, especially with Figueiredo missing weight previously and fighting in China.

Song Yadong win over 1.5 rounds -250 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at -550
"Sonia Dong's hand speed, explosiveness, athleticism, and capable grappling game make him kind of a nightmare matchup for Davis and Figuredo."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ calls Song a lock, citing his youth, speed, power, and well-rounded game. He thinks Figueiredo is past his prime, with recent weight misses and a decline in performance. AJ expects Song to win by KO, possibly later in the fight, as Figueiredo's chin may not hold up.

Song Yadong wins by KO/TKO
"I think that this is a Song Yadong showcase chance in China without a shadow of a doubt. It's Song Yadong in a no-brainer all day."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong because he is a technical striker with power and can mix in wrestling. He notes that Figueiredo is 38 and declining, and that Song is too big and strong. He thinks Figueiredo is being used as a gatekeeper for the local star.

"Song should win. Divas is just being used at this point for the local guy to get a win headlining a card in his country."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his superior striking speed, power, and offensive wrestling. He believes Figueiredo, a former flyweight moving up, will be the smaller fighter and unable to bully Song. Angelo notes Song's finishing upside and experience in five-round fights, making him a strong DraftKings play.

Song in lineup; finishing upside mentioned
"Song's going to be the pick. song in your lineup probably makes a lot of sense because A, he's got two extra rounds to work with. B, he has plenty of finishing upside, certainly in this matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his size, speed, and power advantages over the aging Figueiredo. He notes that Figueiredo's success comes from bullying opponents, but Song is bigger and hits harder. He believes Song will win, possibly by decision, and mentions that a decision prop could provide extra value. He is surprised the odds are widening in Figueiredo's favor.

Song Yadong by decision
"It has to be Song Dong. He certainly can fade as the fight goes on, which could be a problem in a five round main event. But I think Song gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady is confident in Song Yadong, citing Figueiredo's age (38), weight cut struggles at bantamweight, and poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he landed only seven strikes in 15 minutes. He notes Song has never been dropped, has good takedown defense and getup game, and believes Figueiredo is washed. He predicts a decision win for Song, acknowledging Figueiredo's toughness and lack of official KO losses.

"I love Song Dong in this matchup. It's a shame he's minus 550 here, but I don't really see how he loses this fight to be honest."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody is fully confident in Song Yadong, citing his higher trajectory, superior skills, cardio, durability, and striking volume. He notes Figueiredo's power hasn't translated to 135, his cardio is poor, and he's on a 1-4 slide. Cody sees no path for Figueiredo except a puncher's chance, which he dismisses due to Figueiredo's low volume and one-and-done style.

Song Yadong by decision or late finish; hedge opportunity mentioned but Cody would not take it
"No, I got Sonong 100%. I don't see where he loses this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Song Yadong is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Figueiredo has fallen off the pace cliff and needs opponents who won't push him, while Song Yadong is a hyper-elite athlete who maintains a hard fight round after round. Connor also notes that Song Yadong doesn't have a major grappling deficiency, making Figueiredo's path to victory unclear.

Odds: Song Yadong opened -300, now -600; Figueiredo opened +250, now +425.
"Song Yedong is the pick."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, citing his exceptional boxing, underrated durability, and improved grappling. He believes Figueiredo's best path is via submission but doubts his cardio to sustain grappling over five rounds. Levi notes Song's momentum and timing, and suggests a potential knockout.

Song Yadong by KO/TKO mentioned as a legitimate chance; odds: Song -550, Figueiredo +420
"I think he's going to come out here and put the damage on the legend and go out there and get this big win in China in the main event."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jacob picks Song Yadong because he is good enough to win and Figueiredo slows down as the fight goes. He notes that Song has a tendency to be cocky and put himself in bad positions, but overall he should win. He warns that Figueiredo is always live for a submission or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick Songie Dong. He should be safe in this fight. He's good enough to win this fight. And Figgy is is just a low volume guy that slows down as the fight goes."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Lucrative James picks Song Yadong primarily due to the 10-year age advantage and being in his prime versus Figueiredo who is 38 and past his prime. He emphasizes Song's superior cardio, speed, durability, and youth, noting that Figueiredo has changed his style to be less aggressive and lacks the physicality he once had. He acknowledges Figueiredo's guillotine threat but believes Song's improved grappling and overall athleticism will be too much. He predicts a knockout, citing Song's point to prove after a close loss to Sean O'Malley.

Song Yadong via knockout
"I got Seyong to win this fight primarily on youth and I think he's actually going to get a knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host picks Song Yadong, citing his youth, speed, power, and cardio advantage. He believes Song's grappling is good enough to halt Figueiredo's takedowns and that he will outstrike and outpoint Figueiredo over five rounds. He expects a decision win and doesn't mind the chalky price.

"I really think we see Song keep the pressure on Figero, outland him, maybe out wrestle him. ... I think we see Song win this fight on the scorecards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host believes Song Yadong has all advantages: more power, speed, youth, better wrestling, and good defensive grappling. He acknowledges Figueiredo's durability and cardio but expects Yadong to win convincingly by decision, barring a Hail Mary submission.

decision victory
"I believe Yadong has all the advantages in this fight. ... I think Yadong wins this fight pretty convincingly. ... I'm going to go Sona Dong by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Song Yadong a clear play across the board. He emphasizes Song's trajectory, hometown advantage, and Figueiredo's decline. Paul notes Figueiredo's low output (e.g., 8 significant strikes in 15 minutes vs Umar) and that he needs high volume to beat Song, which he can't provide.

Song Yadong top of PRP; hedge opportunity mentioned
"I think Sonia Dong is a clear clear play across the board."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong over Deiveson Figueiredo, citing Yadong's youth, speed, and technical boxing. He believes Yadong's takedown defense and crisp combinations will overwhelm the aging Figueiredo, who has lost to top contenders. He expects Yadong to control the fight and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go Song Yadong here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong to win by finish in the third round. He notes that Song is a good boxer with leg kicks and pressure, and Figueiredo needs to get the fight to the ground to win. He believes Song's takedown defense is proven against better wrestlers, and he will overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and boxing, finishing him in the third round.

"I think he's going to finish Davis and Figero in this match up in the third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song for the pick but notes Figueiredo is the value side. He thinks Song's volume and movement on the feet will win most minutes, and he has a geographical advantage. Figueiredo has power and grappling but may be slowing slightly. He expects a competitive decision and says the line is too wide.

Figueiredo as value side, possibly on point spread
"I'll take song for a pick figure out as the value side there's a real good chance I have a bet on him at least on the point spread style of thing."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Zane picks Song Yadong because Figueiredo has become a slow-paced fighter who relies on opponents not pushing him. Song Yadong is a durable, high-volume athlete who won't give Figueiredo the low pace he needs. Zane notes that Figueiredo's recent wins came against fighters like Montel Jackson and Marlon Vera who lacked pace, but Song Yadong maintains a steady pace and has decent wrestling to avoid Figueiredo's takedowns.

Odds: Song Yadong opened -300, now -600; Figueiredo opened +250, now +425. Zane comments that the odds reflect the mismatch.
"Song Yedong is the pick."
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 48 of 92 52% 67 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 36 of 94 38% 69 of 130 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 10 of 23 43% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
2 Sean O'Malley 0 7 of 20 35% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 14 of 31 45% 34 of 53 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:28
3 Sean O'Malley 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 12 of 40 30% 12 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 48 of 92 52% 23 of 53 16 of 28 9 of 11 48 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 36 of 94 38% 15 of 55 2 of 6 19 of 33 36 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 16 of 26 61% 6 of 13 6 of 8 4 of 5 16 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 10 of 23 43% 0 of 7 0 of 1 10 of 15 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 7 of 20 35% 1 of 8 5 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 14 of 31 45% 8 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 10 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 25 of 46 54% 16 of 32 5 of 9 4 of 5 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 12 of 40 30% 7 of 29 1 of 3 4 of 8 12 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-205), Song (+170)

Round 1
A bantamweight striker’s delight will treat fans in the co-headliner, as O'Malley (18-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC) looks to get back on championship track. He will face off against underrated Team Alpha Male product Song (22-8-1, 1 NC; 11-3-1 UFC), whose only losses in the Octagon after 15 walks are to Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. The third man in the cage tonight for this one will be referee Herb Dean, and gloves are touched before they start to fly.
Immediately after the touch, Song lets fly a low kick that O'Malley just stares at. O'Malley advances, peeling back right before reaching his opponent, and does this a couple times. Song kicks him in the front leg again a few times, and O'Malley answers with one back. The two bounce back and forth without throwing much for a good 30 seconds, until Song springs into action with a few punches. O'Malley potshots him with a left after Song completes his volley, but he cannot get out of the way of the oncoming kick and swarming offense. They trade spinning kicks, skimming them off one another, with O'Malley’s to the body the more effective. O'Malley jabs with front kicks to the body to stave off Song, who is slowly works his way in.
Song kicks the front leg and scores a right on the outside, only for O'Malley to counter him back. The result is a lot of tit-for-tat offense, where one man lands and the other tries to pay him back. Song rushes out with a left hand, and O'Malley digs a couple strikes to the body. Song walks through a front kick to lash out at the lead wheel of the Montanan, and he tries to corner O'Malley but cannot quite get a bead on his movement. Song drives home another hefty kick, and he charges in for a takedown attempt and puts O'Malley on his back. O'Malley defends with a guillotine choke, and when that fails, O'Malley shrugs to someone as if he thinks he should immediately be stood back up. Song grinds him out for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
Like the previous round, Song starts off with a glove touch and a calf kick. When O'Malley stumbles from the kick, Song tries to take advantage of it, and he just misses with a spinning back fist. Song walks through a front kick to plant a right hand on the forehead, and O'Malley no-sells it and looks for a counter. Song bounces in with a left hand and a high kick, and O'Malley slides away and responds with a body shot. Song goes to the front leg again, with O'Malley switching stances and taking damage on both as welts and redness are present on both legs. Song pounds the former champ with a left hand, shooting in for a single that he uses to drag O'Malley to a knee. O'Malley wall-walks to get back up with Song’s hands wrapped around his waist, and he elbows Song’s arms in hopes of breaking the grip.
Song knees the back of the thigh repeatedly, and he grabs the fence to reposition himself and then holds his arm low to defend some of the knee strikes. Song sweeps his post arm, and he transitions to a double and hits it while O'Malley looks for a guillotine, and the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete easily breaks out of it to establish top control. When O'Malley scoots back to his feet, Song follows him and hammers his front leg before blasting him in the face with a left hand. O'Malley jabs and gets countered by an overhand right, but it is his low kick that most gets O'Malley’s attention. Song loads up on power punches as he walks down the pink-shorted athlete, and O'Malley is able to sway and evade the worst of them. O'Malley gets off a body kick, and Song kicks the leg once before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
O'Malley knows that an advancing Song is coming to strike him, so he makes sure to get out of the way before it can get to him. Song does not throw it, instead pawing out his jab to set up his looping right hooks that buzz the tower repeatedly. O'Malley jabs him to the belly, and his leg gets kicked hard. Song points to his leg after checking a kick, as if to taunt O'Malley for throwing it. He then chambers and fires multiple strong low kicks, ignoring a couple left hooks that catch him at least partially when he is off-balance. O'Malley sticks his foe with a right, and he slips away from the increasingly telegraphed counter. Song continues to chase down “Suga Sean,” darting after a takedown and pulling back when it is not there. O'Malley busts up Song’s nose to start it trickling down the mouth, and he does not register it as he stays within kickboxing range practically the whole time.
O'Malley flashes out jabs to the head and body, and he stuffs a takedown as boos rain down. Song just misses on a looping left hand, and he pushes out a right and dings O'Malley when ducking. O'Malley gathers his thoughts and belts the Chinese competitor with a crisp right hand. Song ducks and feints his way forward, coming out behind left hooks while O'Malley is the quicker, more direct striker with less arc on his swings. Song keeps walking the former champ down, and he misses by an inch with a spinning back elbow. When O'Malley counters him, Song smiles and goes after a takedown. O'Malley tosses him aside and knees him right on the chin, and a bloodied Song just grins and walks forward. O'Malley gets in a left, and he gets Song’s attention further with a right. Song points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and O'Malley motions to flip a coin and then fires off a high kick. The match comes to a close, with the first round likely the difference maker.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, arguing that O'Malley's best version (when he was partying and podcasting) would win. He believes O'Malley's clean footwork and accuracy will exploit Yadong's lack of striking defense. He notes Yadong is hittable and throws with power, but O'Malley should pick him apart. He hopes O'Malley returns to his old lifestyle for the win.

"Shawn Ali is going to be the pick, but I am not as confident in him as these odds because Ydong Song is good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady notes O'Malley's losses came when opponents took him down repeatedly, but Song Yadong averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes. He believes O'Malley is the better striker and will win a striking match. He worries about O'Malley's mentality after two losses to Merab but expects the best version to win by decision.

O'Malley by decision
"I'm never ever picking against Shawn Ali when he's fighting another striker. I mean, if you're not taking down Shawn Ali consistently, you're going to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody picks Sean O'Malley but is hesitant due to O'Malley's potential lack of motivation and Song Yadong's durability. He notes O'Malley's length and accuracy should allow him to win the first two rounds, but worries about a gritty third round. He suggests O'Malley by decision as a prop.

Sean O'Malley by decision
"I do actually have Sugar Sean again. The length, the speed, the accuracy um and the slow start, the presumable slow start from Sonia Dong hopefully get it done for him, but I don't feel great about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Connor also picks O'Malley, emphasizing that Song Yadong is an unimaginative fighter who lacks variety in his approach. He notes that Song's best path to victory (low kicks and wrestling) is possible but unlikely given O'Malley's mobility and range. Connor believes O'Malley's swagger and ability to make opponents hesitant will be key, and that Song's inability to cut off the cage will leave him chasing O'Malley all night.

O'Malley opened at -300, now -200; Song opened at +250, now +170. Connor thinks O'Malley could be a bigger favorite.
"Sean O'Malley is just too difficult to track down and has too much range for Song Yadong to succeed playing his game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Vreeland picks Song Yadong to win by decision. He criticizes O'Malley's recent timidity and reliance on counters, and notes that O'Malley has talked about retirement. Vreeland believes Song has the speed, leg kicks, and wrestling to compete with O'Malley, and that his well-rounded approach and power will be the deciding factors. He also mentions that Song has taken down Peter Yan, which bodes well for his wrestling advantage.

"I think Sonia Dong is going to come out here, get the biggest win of his career, and put himself in title contention."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

James believes O'Malley is a level above everywhere, with superior fight IQ and striking IQ. He expects O'Malley to stay at range, pot shot, and win via decision. He notes Song's durability but thinks O'Malley's smart game plan will prevail. James also mentions O'Malley's high fight IQ and preparation with Paul Czech.

"I just feel like Shaomi is a level above everywhere, you know? I really do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for O'Malley, who faces a fellow striker in Song Yadong. He believes O'Malley's striking wizardry, footwork, and trap-setting will allow him to out-strike Yadong and potentially land a knockout. The host notes uncertainty about O'Malley's mentality after two losses but thinks this style matchup will bring back the 'Sugar Show'. He does not see enough value on Yadong to pick the upset.

O'Malley by knockout
"I think this is a good enough match up for Ali to showcase why he was so special to begin with. And I think we'll see him out strike Yodong and possibly lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing O'Malley's 5-inch reach advantage and Song Yadong's slow starts. He believes O'Malley will use his footwork and volume to win a decision, though he notes Song's grappling improvements could be a factor. Paul sees O'Malley by decision as the most likely outcome.

"Yeah, the 5- in reach advantage is kind of where I lean towards Ali. I think Omali by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by decision, noting Song Yadong's durability and toughness. He believes O'Malley's reach, kicks, and power will be key, and that Yadong's facial cuts could lead to a stoppage. He predicts a 30-27 decision.

decision, 30-27
"I'm going to go with Shaun Ali by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Zane picks O'Malley confidently, noting that Song Yadong is a plodding striker with poor footwork and range management, which plays perfectly into O'Malley's sniping style. He points out that Song has historically struggled against mobile fighters who fight off the back foot (e.g., Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen). Zane also mentions that O'Malley's reach and footwork will make it hard for Song to close distance, and that O'Malley's durability is sufficient to handle Song's power.

O'Malley opened at -300, now -200; Song opened at +250, now +170. Zane thinks O'Malley could be a bigger favorite.
"I think a very wise matchup for Sean O'Malley... stylistically, it's hard for me to imagine Sean O'Malley not having mostly his way."
WIN vs Henry Cejudo
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 67 of 133 50% 67 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 84 of 178 47% 84 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 30 of 78 38% 30 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 67 of 133 50% 40 of 100 12 of 18 15 of 15 67 of 132 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 84 of 178 47% 46 of 133 14 of 21 24 of 24 82 of 176 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 13 of 25 52% 3 of 13 3 of 5 7 of 7 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 21 of 31 67% 6 of 16 5 of 5 10 of 10 19 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 29 of 55 52% 18 of 42 3 of 5 8 of 8 29 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 33 of 69 47% 17 of 49 5 of 9 11 of 11 33 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 25 of 53 47% 19 of 45 6 of 8 0 of 0 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 30 of 78 38% 23 of 68 4 of 7 3 of 3 30 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
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Henry Cejudo vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
His back against the wall, former two-division champ Cejudo (16-4, 10-4 UFC) finds himself on a rare losing streak, albeit to two of the best bantamweights in the world in Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili. The Olympic gold medalist takes a slight step down in competition to face Song (21-8-1, 1 NC; 10-3-1 UFC), who also lost his last fight against a champ-level fighter in Petr Yan. The 135ers are brought to the center of the cage by referee Jason Herzog, and they acknowledge one another and double bump their gloves together. It’s on with the show. Cejudo pump-fakes his hips several times to give the impression of a looming takedown, and Song does not bite on a single one and fires off a heavy low kick. Cejudo rushes forward with a one-two that misses the mark, and he races forward and catches Song at the end of an exchange. Song bounces off the cage and gets back to kicking the wrestler in the lead leg and little else. Song sits down on a counter, but Cejudo is in and out with a body kick before that happens. Cejudo fakes a takedown to come up overt the top with a left hook, and after that fails, he motions low for a level change and attack with a flying knee. Cejudo lets fly a low kick and gets jabbed in the belly for his handiwork. Song uses his range to potshot from afar with jabs, low kicks and reaching left hooks. Cejudo fakes his way in but does not engage in anything other than a low kick of his own, and as Song backs off, Cejudo kicks him in the side. Chants of “USA” rain down in support of the wrestler, and Song takes advantage of the energy by clipping the American with a right hand and further flusters him with low kicks. The two drill one another with low kicks, and Song’s ankle bends awkwardly as he tries to put pressure on it. Cejudo keeps kicking the calf, and he shoots low and comes out swinging high. Song rips a kick to the side, and he nearly splits the guard with an uppercut. Both fighters blitz and pull back before letting things go, and Song sits down on a right hand. When Cejudo kicks the body of his foe, Song cracks him with another right hand. Cejudo is fired up and swings back with a vengeance, and he chases Song around until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get started again, and then pull back without trading. Song eventually works his way forward, chipping away with kicks to the body. Cejudo surges forward with two hooks, and his low kick is all that lands from it. Song darts back and works the body, and Cejudo says something to him and strikes. Song swipes out with a left hook, and leg kicks fly from both sides. Song splits the guard with a double jab, and his naked leg kick is nearly countered with a right up top. Song backs off the former champ with a few long punches, and he puts a few right hands down the pipe and goes to the body after. Cejudo waves him on, and he comes up top with a right hand when faking a takedown. Cejudo goes after a takedown, and Song shrugs it off and triples up on his jab. They whip kicks at one another, and Cejudo times a solid left. A jumping switch kick from Cejudo lands to the side, and he drops down in pursuit of a takedown. Song’s sprawl shuts it down, and he fires off kicks to the lead leg. One skims the cup, but Cejudo motions that he does not want to pause. As Song keeps kicking, he falls over, and Cejudo charges at him and then backs off. Song allows Cejudo to come in so he can belt him in the face with a pair of hooks, and he trips Cejudo up with his leg kicks and forces a stance switch. Song jabs and jabs, following a few with right hands and beating the elder statesman to the punch. Song gets a right hand in and escapes, only for Cejudo get his hands on him with a fierce right. Song staggers back and is ready to engage, as if he needs to take damage to get out of first gear. Song suddenly drops down for a single, and Cejudo tosses it aside and scores a right hand. The former champion lands another overhand right, and Song clips him with an uppercut. Song stands his man up with a left, and Cejudo wants to bang it out and does just that. A few right hands from “The Messenger” bloody up Song’s nose, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 3
Song wants to pay Cejudo back right out of the gate, surging forward throwing punches. Cejudo stands in the pocket ready for battle, and he fakes his takedown every so often to further open things up on the feet. Song never bites, and instead stands Cejudo up with his sharper punches. The punches from Cejudo open a cut on Song’s cheek, and Song blocks a jump knee and pushes Cejudo aside. The two trade one after the other, not concerned about power and willingly engaging. Cejudo blocks a few punches to throw back, but it is Song’s one-two that gets through. When Cejudo lashes out, Song pushes off with a front kick that lands on the cup. Herzog asks replay to check if this is a direct foul, and after 30 seconds, they get back to it. Cejudo ducks a few jabs and swings hard, and again drops down for a level change only to swing up high. This results in a furious brawl, with Cejudo right there in front of the fighter from China swinging hard. Song jumps at his man with a knee, and Cejudo blocks it just in time. Song knocks Cejudo back during an exchange and grins, and he slaps a kick low and backs off when Cejudo hurls a left hook at him. Cejudo sneaks in a clean right hand to get Song’s attention, and Song pays him back with a clubbing right. Song pushes off with his fingers outstretched, and his fingers jam into both of Cejudo’s eyes like a Three Stooges poke. Herzog pauses the action and tells Song to be careful, and Cejudo asks for a cloth to wipe his eyes while telling Herzog to take a point. Cejudo wipes his eyes out with a wet towel, taking ample time to recover while blinking his eyes repeatedly to clear his vision. Cejudo declares to Herzog that he wants to fight and needs to take the time to see better, and he sits down. The crowd showers him with boos, and Cejudo tells the audience to cool it because he was the recipient of a nasty foul. Cejudo uses the complete five-minute break to clear up, and when they resume, Song still holds his fingers out towards his opponent. Song walks Cejudo down and busts him in the chops, clipping him with a solid uppercut when Cejudo is circling away. Song backs Cejudo against the fence, trying to cut him off and aim long strikes at him like front kicks and jabs. Cejudo ducks back to defend from further uppercuts, and he dodges a jump knee to get to the end of the round. Cejudo complains to his corner that he cannot see, and Herzog is paying close attention to this. Cejudo asks the promotion to call in the doctor, and that he cannot see out of his left eye.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
Herzog allows the third round to complete, and he goes to start the fourth round and calls time, officially bringing in the doctor and waving the fight off. This means that the fighters will be going to a technical decision, and everyone in the building is disappointed. The first three rounds will be scored in their entirety, and a rematch is almost certainly in the cards for these two. After such a terrific start to the event, it is unfortunate for the night to end like this. Both fighters are game to run it back. When they do, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Technical Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong despite being a huge Henry Cejudo fan. He notes Cejudo is 38 and hasn't won since 2020, while Song is young, fast, and a clean striker. He thinks Song will look better as the fight goes longer. He will not bet on the fight because he will be rooting for Cejudo and never bets on someone he doesn't think will win.

No bet due to rooting interest
"I think Song wins this fight... I'll be rooting for Henry Cejudo, I want him to win, but I don't think he's going to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong, noting that Henry Cejudo is 38 years old and may not be taking his career seriously, citing an interview where Cejudo was smoking. He believes Song's takedown defense and get-up game have improved significantly since the Stamann fight, and that Song is 11 years younger with a height advantage. He expects Song to win a clear one-sided decision, with Cejudo maybe getting a takedown here or there but being outworked.

by decision
"give me S Yong I I'll say s Yong wins this fight a pretty pretty clear one-sided decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Connor picks Song Yadong but is hesitant, noting that if the fight were three rounds he would pick Cejudo. He acknowledges Cejudo's ability to take Song down early and grind, but doubts Cejudo can maintain pace or finish Song. Connor points out that Cejudo's speed may not shock a young fighter like Song, and that Song is very tough to finish.

"if this were a three round fight I would probably pick henry sauto to win it... but it's five rounds and song yadong is younger and harder hitting"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host thinks Song's striking style will be too much for Cejudo, who may make the fight closer than odds indicate. He believes the damage Song inflicts will lead to a decision victory.

"I think that song's striking style will end up being too much for shudo here shudo might have some success to make this fight look closer than the odds indicate I still believe that the damage that song will be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong by decision, arguing he is more athletic, faster, and has better footwork. He doubts Cejudo's takedown effectiveness, noting he hasn't seen a good takedown from him in years and that opponents often get back up. He believes Song's defensive grappling is strong and that he will outpoint Cejudo on the feet over five rounds, predicting a 48-47 score.

decision win
"I'm gonna go with s Yong I'm gonna go with son Yong and I'm gonna say that song wins this fight by decision three rounds to two four rounds to one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Zane picks Song Yadong because he believes Cejudo is too old and knockout-dependent, and Song is younger, harder hitting, and more durable. He notes that Cejudo's last decision win was a robbery over Demetrious Johnson and that he slows down in later rounds. However, Zane expresses disappointment that Song likely won't show any new skills, as he expects a win that teaches nothing new.

"I have to pick song yadong, but the unfortunate truth is it's probably i'm expecting a win where I learn literally nothing new about him"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 99 of 183 54% 129 of 217 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:47
Song Yadong 0 86 of 172 50% 104 of 192 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 22 of 35 62% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 20 of 37 54% 22 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:49
2 Petr Yan 0 41 of 77 53% 61 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Song Yadong 0 31 of 66 46% 40 of 75 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Petr Yan 0 36 of 71 50% 45 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Song Yadong 0 35 of 69 50% 42 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 99 of 183 54% 68 of 142 22 of 31 9 of 10 86 of 170 4 of 4 9 of 9
Song Yadong 86 of 172 50% 71 of 147 9 of 15 6 of 10 79 of 164 5 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 22 of 35 62% 9 of 19 6 of 8 7 of 8 22 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 20 of 37 54% 15 of 30 1 of 2 4 of 5 17 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Petr Yan 41 of 77 53% 31 of 62 10 of 15 0 of 0 35 of 71 1 of 1 5 of 5
Song Yadong 31 of 66 46% 26 of 56 4 of 7 1 of 3 28 of 63 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 36 of 71 50% 28 of 61 6 of 8 2 of 2 29 of 64 3 of 3 4 of 4
Song Yadong 35 of 69 50% 30 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 34 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yadong Song vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-115), Song (-105)

Round 1
His back against the wall, former bantamweight champ Yan (16-5, 8-4 UFC) has lost four of his last five after charging into the UFC to win seven straight. On the other side of the cage, Team Alpha Male’s Song (21-7-1, 1 NC; 10-2-1 UFC) has plenty of momentum on his side, winner of four of five to get himself a ranking next to his name. While not as big as the main event, there will be waves made from this bantamweight bout. It begins with referee Keith Peterson checking the fighters in, and they clap hands first. There will be no nonsense going forward. Song leads off with a low kick, and Yan throws one back only to get countered with a check left hook. Song comes up short with a low kick, and he fakes with a takedown that makes Yan oversell to try to stop it. Yan comes out firing with an overhand right, and Song eats it like a bowl of hot and numbing beef. Song wings a left hand that gets Yan’s attention, and he tries to launch it again but comes up just short. They engage in a stalemate when standing in front of one another, and Song hops out of the way and leaps forward with a left hand. Song doubles up on a jab and whips a right hand over the top, and Yan bends him over with a body shot. Song attacks with a combination, and Yan defends the worst of the blows and is ready to trade back, only to find his enemy is not to be found. Song counters a leg kick with a huge overhand right, and they both dip down at the same time but do not engage. Song tags him with a left hook, and he walks through a punch to land a sharp jab of his own. They both duck down at the same time again, and they nearly bounce heads. Song catches a leg kick and bangs his right hand into the temple, sending Yan down to the mat. Song follow him and tries to keep him down, but Yan scrambles wildly to work his way up to his feet. Yan tries to roll through to nearly escape and find himself in better position, but Song hangs on to stay on Yan from behind. Song lands a few right hands until Yan fights to his feet with 30 seconds to spare. Yan sneaks in a right hand and ducks a massive overhand right, and he bites on a faked takedown and awkwardly attacks his own. The round ends before a takedown is landed on either side.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
They bump fists before getting started, and Song says hello with a body kick. Yan races ahead, only to walk partially into an elbow. Song swings a left hook and shoots, and when Yan stands him up, Song elects to score several right hands before shoving the Russian to the wall. Song nails his man with an elbow, and Yan breaks off and ducks into an uppercut when trying to defend a takedown. Song eats an uppercut when shooting, and when he tries again, he takes another uppercut to the same spot. Yan sits down on his punches when Song walks him down, and he looks to defend a takedown and gets grabbed from behind. Song sticks out several jabs when breaking free, and he ducks square into an uppercut. Peterson calls time to remove some tape from Yan’s glove, and they cut it and move on. Yan restarts and aims two body shots, and he stops a takedown by tackling Song over. Song shrugs at him, and he takes a right hand for his effort. Song jabs, and he snatches up a single and lifts it in the air. Yan miraculously keeps his balance and drags his leg back, and he snaps out multiple jabs. The crowd starts chanting “let’s go Petr” as if the Miami fans had forgotten he is Russian, and Song takes energy from it and surges ahead. Yan beats him to the punch and aims shots to the body, and Song throws hands too hard and takes a clean uppercut. Yan digs a right to the body and leans back to avoid the big strike from his opponent, and he crashes forward to hit a clean takedown and plant Song on his back. Yan works the body and head as soon as they hit the ground, and he cuts Song open with elbows. The round ends as blood leans from above Song’s left eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the center of the Octagon, and Yan swings a huge right hand that Song barely ducks. Song counters with a spinning kick that glances off the guard, and he gets his jab going. Yan aims an uppercut and shoots down for the ankle, and he spins around and works to his feet when he does not get Song down. Yan stings his opponent with a right and spins with a back kick, and Song doubles up on a jab and gets smacked in the head with a spinning wheel kick. Song is tough as nail, and he rushes forward to trade hands and surprises Yan with a right hand. Song goes after a single, and Yan bounces off and throws hard at his opponent. Song gets knocked to his hands, and he rebounds and eats a body shot in the midst of a combination. Yan aims a one-two to the body, and he shoulder rolls to avoid the counter. Song desperately pursues a takedown, and Yan crawls away. Song connects a left on the side of the head, and he gather his thoughts and spins with a back fist. Blood leaks down both of Song’s eyes, with cuts all over, and he completely ignores it so he can trade with his opponent. Yan beans him with a spinning back fist, and Song stands right in front of him and scores a heavy right hand back. Song takes a left hand on the jaw and gets shoved back to the fence, and he elbows Song and pursues a double. Yan turns the corner and plants Song on his seat with a minute to spare, and he sits in half guard and starts shellacking Song with elbows and punches. Yan gets dragged back to guard while striking, and he flows over to the side and elbows Song once for good measure. Song rolls to his stomach, and Yan holds him down with a brabo choke until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, feeling a changing of the guard. He notes Song hits hard, is fast, and can make the fight ugly, which is how you beat Yan. However, he acknowledges Yan is still very good and this is a tough test. He won't bet on it because it's too close.

Jacob has a good size bet on this fight with good odds (premium members can check).
"song is going to be the pick but for me this is too close of a fight too good of a fight I'm not going to bet on it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision, but has low confidence. He notes that Yan has lost four of his last five, but those losses were to top competition. He believes Yan's boxing and volume will edge out Song, who has more power but is less proven. He thinks the fight is razor thin and could go either way.

win by decision
"I'm going to take Pon here I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody is concerned about Yan's slow starts and poor decision-making in recent fights. He thinks Song's takedown defense, volume, and durability make him a live underdog, especially in a three-round fight where Yan's slow starts could cost him.

"it's 50-50 fight I think s Yong is like the slight Underdog I would favor with the slight Underdog"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Vreeland also picks Song Yadong, emphasizing how Petr Yan has been losing. He notes that Yan's losses are to top competition but points to the Merab Dvalishvili fight where Yan was worn down by pace and wrestling. Vreeland believes Song's wrestling has improved and that he can take the first round against a slow-starting Yan. He argues that in a three-round fight, Song only needs to win the third round as Yan fades. Vreeland highlights Song's youth and upward trajectory as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm taking s you dong and I think the big piece for me too is the way that we're seeing Pon lose because obviously we can excuse losses to the types of guys he's losing to right …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel picks Yan to get back in the win column, but it's a lean. He believes Yan is not washed and has looked good in recent losses to elite competition. He notes Yan's takedown ability and diverse striking, but warns that Song is a massive bantamweight with heavy hands and can crack in the pocket. Daniel expects a competitive three-round war and thinks Yan's experience and technique will prevail, but acknowledges Song could knock him out.

"I'm actually G to go poo Yan here to get back in the win column but I expect this to be a very competitive um Dynamic three round bantamweight War"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jeff Fox picks Song Yadong at even money, citing Petr Yan's three-fight losing streak and mental state concerns. He notes Song's continued improvement and youth, and believes Yan's slow starts in three-round fights are a liability. Fox thinks Song's wrestling has improved, as shown against Ricky Simon, and that he can tire Yan out by pushing the pace. He concludes that Yan refuses to win the first round, making him vulnerable.

"I can't trust P Yan at this point despite he's only lost to the top of the heap in the division but the fact is he is losing a lot consistently who knows where his mental state is at this …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Yan is on a three-fight losing streak and has a low-output style that often leaves him behind on the scorecards early. Song Yadong has improved his takedown defense and mixes his striking with grappling well. He is likely to be the more aggressive fighter, using kicks and volume to win rounds. Yan has power and can turn a fight with one shot, but his tendency to give up early rounds is a concern. I lean Song Yadong by decision, but this is not a lock.

"I see this fight in favor of song considering that he likely will be the more aggressive of the two uh be able to stay busy enough with his kicks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul gives Yan a pass for some recent losses, noting he has fought the best in the division. He believes Yan's experience and multiple paths to victory (striking, wrestling) will be enough to beat Song, who hasn't proven himself against top-tier competition.

"I'm gonna side with Peter Yan I'm gonna say he makes the adjustments to you know not take round one off and uh and gets the job done here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru switched from Song Yadong to Petr Yan after rewatching Song's fight with Chris Gutierrez. He argues Yan's compact style and catch-and-shoot counters will neutralize Song's power. He notes Song couldn't finish Gutierrez or Cory Sandhagen, and Yan's durability and boxing should win a striking match. He worries about Yan's three-fight losing streak but believes the aura is still there.

"I'm going to go Peter yam"
DEC R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yadong Song vs. Chris Gutierrez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Song (-380), Gutierrez (+300)

Round 1
All hands are on deck for what should be action-packed headliner at 135 pounds. The winner should position himself closer to the top of the landscape at bantamweight, although a logjam of title suitors still sits in front of them. Whether they need one more win or five to get to the top of the mountain, Song (20-7-1, 1 NC; 9-2-1 UFC) and Gutierrez (20-5-2, 8-2-1 UFC) are ready to take that next step by going through the other. Striking totals and the power behind them will likely be high, so referee Herb Dean is on high alert for the next 25 minutes or less. When they are brought together, they touch gloves to signal there is no ill will for one another. Gutierrez paws out low kicks more as range-finders than as actual scoring strikes, and Song lunges at him and nods when a fist glances off the side of Gutierrez’ head. Gutierrez suddenly spins with a kick, and Song is well out of harm’s way. Gutierrez flicks a head kick at his foe, and Song is able to block it without concern and sweep the leg in response. Gutierrez prods out with low kicks on both sides of the leg of his opponent, and Song prepares a counter but does not release it when seeing Gutierrez is not committing to the strikes. Gutierrez dips out of the way of a spinning back fist that whizzes past him, and they trade low kicks. Gutierrez uses his kicks as distance-keeping weapons, not putting much into some of them and simply tossing them out to keep Song from closing in recklessly. Song peppers Gutierrez with leg kicks, and Gutierrez lands a few stomp kicks on the knee back. Gutierrez fakes a spin, and then sells out and spins with a fist that rebounds off the gloves. Song slams his shin on the lead leg of “El Guapo,” and he leaps forward with two hooks. The leg kicks prompt a stance switch, and when Gutierrez scores a left hand, Song smiles at him and shrugs. Song then lunges ahead, missing with a punch, but they both drive leg kicks home. Gutierrez kicks the body, and Song waves him on, asking for more. “Kung Fu Kid” races ahead, but he misses with strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
When the second round begins, the two kick and kick and kick. They trade kicks to the lead leg, Song goes high, and Gutierrez emulates him with one of his own. Gutierrez plants the ball of his foot on Song’s face, and Song grins and laughs it off. Song lashes out, and when he misses, Gutierrez spins with a back fist and partially catches him with it. Gutierrez looks for a second front kick, and Song picks up on it but only partially. Gutierrez chips away with low kicks, and he checks one that comes back at him. Song reaches him with three punches, getting off at the end of one, and Gutierrez bounces away and picks and pokes with low kicks. Song looks to split the guard with a right hand, and Gutierrez kicks his leg out and sends him careening off-balance when Song spins. Gutierrez kicks the lead leg and backs away from a counter, and he pokes out with a front kick. Song tries to crowd him, and Gutierrez parries and evades the blows. Song connects with a few low kicks, and Gutierrez pushes off his face and pokes Song in both eyes. Dean calls time and tells Gutierrez to stop leading with his fingers, and he allows Song to recover. Song tries to hurry back, and Dean gives him more time, but Song wants to fight so they resume after about 45 seconds off. Gutierrez starts up again with his front leg raised, and he chambers and fires it at his foe. Gutierrez circles away from the oncoming offense, avoiding any of the power punches and getting off his own strikes. Song rushes forward, practically tackling Gutierrez to the ground. Gutierrez sets up butterfly hooks to try to sweep his foe from China, and he kicks off Song’s hips but cannot lift him off. Song slowly works with occasional strikes, and Gutierrez looks to throw his legs up with a high guard or something more. Song keeps Gutierrez pressed against the fence, until Dean calls time and issues a hard warning to Gutierrez for grabbing Song’s gloves. Dean resets them in position, and Song rides out the round on top landing right hands.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gutierrez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
The two bantamweights touch ‘em up before opening the third round, and kicks are the first item on the menu. Song fires off a high kick, and he shoots in for a takedown. Gutierrez defends it, but he gets popped on the way out with a right hook. Gutierrez lands a front kick, and Song outstretches his hand and a finger jams deep into Gutierrez’ eye socket. Dean pauses the fight and allows Gutierrez to recover. Gutierrez takes 90 seconds and a hand wipe before he is good to go, and they resume. Gutierrez pushes out several front kicks with both legs, interrupting Song’s movement and combinations. Song reaches him with a left hand, and ducks back as Gutierrez spins with a wheel kick. The leg kicks land one after the other for both men, and Gutierrez raises his guard at the right moment to block a left hook that blazes at him. Song sticks out a jab, and Gutierrez answers him with a right hook. Gutierrez kicks the knee and fakes with spins, and the two crash together without landing of note. Gutierrez snaps up a question mark kick that Song mostly defends, and Song tries to make him pay but Gutierrez is well out of the way. Song delivers a stern leg kick that lands with an audible thud, and he tosses up his other leg to Gutierrez’ face—Gutierrez protects himself from it. Gutierrez drops low to change levels, drawing a huge reaction out of Song. Gutierrez fakes another takedown to again make Song think about defending, and he goes up high with a right hand. Gutierrez jabs the lead leg with his own leg, and he gets cornered by the Chinese fighter and skirts away after eating a three-punch serving. Song reaches Gutierrez with a left, and he clubs him with a right before Gutierrez escapes. Song takes a knee up the middle while throwing hands, and he takes a straight right hand after landing a few strikes. Gutierrez slides to the side to let a spinning wheel kick land on his shoulder, and he throws a high kick in response. Song catches it and dumps him to the mat with seconds to go, and Song does not do anything with it as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
The bantamweights reach the championship rounds, and feet are in play before fists. Gutierrez blocks a head kick and takes two low kicks, and he connects with a clean front kick up the middle. Song tries to chase him down and corner him, but it ends with him falling over. Gutierrez spins with a back fist, and when that misses, Song belts him with a huge right hand that shocks him and sends him crashing down to the floor. Song jumps on top, but Gutierrez closes his guard and stifles any further offense from getting through. Gutierrez recovers, as Song resides on top of him without worry. Gutierrez slaps Song on the side of the head as he stays stuck on his back, and Song occasionally gets in a few strikes to keep Dean from standing them up. Song stacks Gutierrez up any time Gutierrez tries to do some finagling of his guard, and Gutierrez claims several strikes land to the back of his head. The strikes from Song, methodical and effective, open up a cut on Gutierrez’ left eyebrow. Song grinds the remainder of the round out, and Gutierrez is extremely frustrated.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 5
Reaching the last rounds, the two men come together but do not engage quite as quickly as they did before. Gutierrez keeps his range, until out of nowhere he attempts an Imanari roll for a leglock. This is a poor decision, as Song completely bowls him over and gets right back to the position where he ended the last frame. Song has no qualms about smacking Gutierrez around with short punches and a few elbows, all while precious time ticks off the clock for the underdog Gutierrez. Song postures up every so often to hammer down an elbow, and Gutierrez scoots himself back to the wall to try to lean off of it and get up. Song drags him back down and drives home a number of elbows, until Gutierrez desperately turns and pushes his legs off the fencing. Dean warns him for hooking his toes in the fence, and Song celebrates this moment of confusing by punching Gutierrez in the face. With 30 seconds left in the fight, Song opens up with a stream of left hands and hammerfists as he holds Gutierrez in an awkward position. Gutierrez looks for a low-percentage leglock that allows him to get bludgeoned a few more times, and the long five-round engagement comes to a close. There is just one more UFC event in 2023, and it may be one to remember with two title fights and plenty of action fights booked. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (49-46 Song)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (50-45 Song)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song (50-45 Song)

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Chris Gutierrez via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
WIN vs Ricky Simón
KO/TKO R5 1:10 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ricky Simon vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-115), Song (-105)

Round 1
This bantamweight clash was supposed to be a co-main event one week ago before UFC Fight Night 223 lost its originally scheduled headliner. Now Song and Simon get two extra rounds with which to work. Herb Dean gets the final officiating assignment of the night. Simon tests the waters with a high kick and front kick. Song defends without issue. Simon lands a leg kick as both fighters remain patient. Song sidesteps a takedown and lands a leg kick. Song steps in with a knee and misses a right hand. Song blocks a body kick and then lands a hard one of his own. Song catches a kick and Simon spins out of it. A 1-2 connects for Simon and Song responds with a leg kick. Simon doubles up on his jab and follows with a right. They clinch against the fence and battle for position before Simon shakes his foe off. Simon lands a clubbing right. A leg kick connects for Simon and Song smiles. A left lands for Song and then Simon can’t finish a takedown. Song avoids a level change and fires off punches as Simon moves out of danger. Another three-punch combo lands for Simon and Song answers with a leg kick. Simon sticks a jab before the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Simon

Round 2
Song opens with a front kick to the midsection. He follows up with a leg kick and Simon backs him up with a combination. Simon lands another jab. Another jab for Simon gets through. Song backs up Simon with a powerful combination and Simon briefly falls to the canvas after a clash of heads. He quickly transitions to a double leg takedown, giving him time to recover. Song is able to scramble up in a hurry. Simon sticks his jab and Song responds with a hard right to the body. Song with a push kick down the middle and Simon circles away. A clean left hook catches Simon. Another hard left lands for Song, who seems to have found his timing. Simon backs up his foe with multiple jabs. Song pressures and swings heavy leather. Simon continues to work his jab, but Song is undeterred. Song lands a leg kick. Simon evades some jabs but Song lands a left to the liver. Simon eats a right but gets a takedown in the waning moments of the round. He unloads with a flurry of hammerfists from above while Song attacks from his back in a frantic final exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
Song kicks the lead leg and avoids a hook. Simon shoots for a takedown but Song stuffs it and they’re back at distance. Song tries to land another body shot during an exchange but it lands below the belt, and time is called. Simon needs less than a minute to recover and the fight resumes. Simon just dodges a head kick but Song does connect with a leg kick. Song with two more leg kicks. Simon jabs and follows with a takedown but Song easily evades it. Song misses a pair of high kicks but he digs a left hook to the body moments later. A right lands clean for Song. A left from Song puts Simon on wobbly legs, and he circles away. A right to the body finds a home for Simon. Song pressures with punches and Simon circles away. A right uppercut lands to the body for Song. Song misses a high kick followed by a spinning back fist. The round concludes with Song being warned by Dean for leading with his head.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
Simon fires off a combination but Song dodges it. Song lands a leg kick. Simon hits a low kick of his own. Simon attempts a flying knee but Song shoves him back. Song then puts together a nice combination, landing to the body and head. Song sticks a jab then sprawls on a takedown. Simon resets and tries again, but yet again Song denies it. Song moves in with a left hook to the head, and Simon circles away. Song backs up Simon with a combination and then digs a hook to the body. Simon fires off a right hand and then a pair of leg kicks. Another right for Song. Song again lands a combination, but Simon answers with a jab. Song has a low kick checked. Simon moves forward behind his jab and Song answers with a body kick. Simon thinks about a takedown but Song is wise to it. Song with a right hook. Simon moves in with a straight left. Another jab lands for Simon. Song doubles up on his jab and follows with a right hand. Son lands a leg kick and sits Simon down with a left hand right at the horn. Song dives into top position as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 5
Simon will likely need something big to get the win. Simon jabs forward. Song lands a left hook to the body. A nicely timed overhand right stops Simon in his tracks. Shortly thereafter,
Song drops Simon with a left hook during an exchange. Song pounces on his reeling foe, unloading with heavy punches. Simon tries to scramble out of danger, but the barrage continues and he falls back to the canvas, still absorbing damage.
Finally, Dean has seen enough and steps in to wave off the bout.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Ricky Simon via TKO (Punches) R5 1:10
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Connor is impressed with Simón's rapid improvement, especially his boxing and wrestling integration since the Rob Font loss. He notes Simón's flexibility, ability to counter off the back foot, and scrambling prowess. However, he acknowledges Song's power and chin, and the risk of a knockout. He ultimately favors Simón due to Song's stagnation and Simón's adaptability.

Odds mentioned: Simón opened +104, dropped to -130, currently -115. Song opened -115, currently +122. Small cage noted as a factor helping Simón.
"I think Ricky Simone, there are a lot of opportunities on a one-note fighter like Song Yedong despite his physicality."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Simón's improvement and Song's plateau. He highlights Simón's wrestling threat and pace, and Song's tendency to throw everything hard and get tracked down. He notes Song's potential to knock Simón out but leans on Simón's recent performances and adaptability.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're both picking Ricky Simone."
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
TKO (doctor stoppage) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 94 of 222 42% 130 of 259 1 of 14 7% 0 0 3:47
Song Yadong 0 54 of 145 37% 130 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 52 36% 30 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Song Yadong 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 21 of 52 40% 24 of 55 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:48
Song Yadong 0 15 of 44 34% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 29 of 63 46% 30 of 64 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:32
Song Yadong 0 13 of 48 27% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 55 45% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:41
Song Yadong 0 12 of 25 48% 45 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 94 of 222 42% 62 of 186 17 of 21 15 of 15 86 of 213 5 of 6 3 of 3
Song Yadong 54 of 145 37% 36 of 125 13 of 15 5 of 5 44 of 132 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 19 of 52 36% 10 of 43 7 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 21 of 52 40% 14 of 43 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 15 of 44 34% 11 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cory Sandhagen 29 of 63 46% 21 of 54 3 of 4 5 of 5 27 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Song Yadong 13 of 48 27% 8 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 25 of 55 45% 17 of 46 5 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 52 0 of 0 3 of 3
Song Yadong 12 of 25 48% 8 of 21 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Yadong Song
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-195), Song (+165)

Round 1
with top-five ramifications, serves as the only match between ranked competitors on this 13-fight billing. Sandhagen (14-4, 7-3 UFC) took nearly a year off after his failed bid for the interim 135-pound strap, while Song (19-6-1, 1 NC; 8-1-1 UFC) is a younger man on the rise at 24 years of age. Receiving the honor of reffing the final fracas of the night is Herb Dean, who laces up his running shoes to keep up with these two fist-first fighters. Before throwing down, the two slap hands and bump fists with the intention of keeping things on the up-and-up. Sandhagen starts out switching stances multiple times in the opening seconds, and he punches his way into a takedown attempt. He bowls Song into the wall, but there is no takedown to come from it. Song defends with a few knees up the middle, and one bumps into the cup. Sandhagen tells Dean he is good to go and does not want to lose position, and they do not break. Song pushes off with a pair of hooks, and gets backed with a jab to the body. Sandhagen spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he falls to the mat. Song does not follow him, and he lets Sandhagen stand up so that he can drill him with a left hand. They clinch up, and Song elbows once to force a separation. Sandhagen bullies his way into a takedown effort, and Song bowls him over and puts Sandhagen on his back. Sandhagen plays guard off his back, setting up a possible submission, and then bailing on it all to stand up. “Kung Fu Kid” remains on his back, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke to force Sandhagen to lower himself to the ground. Sandhagen gets out of the sticky situation by wriggling out, and they tie up against the wire. Sandhagen elbows hard, and he ducks back right before two big punches reach him. Sandhagen winds up with a loud liver kick, and Song takes it flush without batting an eye. They trade jabs, and a fake takedown try forces a sprawl that makes Song fall to his knees. Sandhagen lets him up and starts piercing the guard with jabs, and he blocks the follow-up counters that fly his way. Another fake takedown draws an exaggerated defensive reaction from his opponent, and Sandhagen lets him up to jab his way to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters are amped up to get back to it, and Dean clocks them in and has to step back fast. Song advances straight ahead, and Sandhagen is moving side to side while jabbing. Sandhagen leaps in the air with a knee that misses, and he gets struck with a straight right hand down the pipe. Sandhagen scores a low kick and keeps his jab in Song’s face, and Song jumps through it with a power left hand. Sandhagen snaps the head back with a jab, and Song sits down on a left hand that makes Sandhagen stagger back to the wall. Sandhagen gathers his thoughts and goes after another flying knee, but it is not there for him. He does throw to the head and body to mix things up as he gets his wits about him, and he changes levels to take Song down. Song scrambles ahis way upright again and makes his man pay with a short right hand, and they clank heads when coming together. Song grins with delight as an elbow from Sandhagen tears open a cut on the corner of his eye, and blood leaks down a little but does not seem to bother him. Sandhagen pushes in for a takedown, and crimson liquid starts flowing into the eye. Sandhagen rails his man with an elbow before breaking from the clinch, and Song’s eye is a busted mess. Sandhagen backs away and unloads with a liver kick, and he keeps jabbing until Song plods forward with a three-punch salvo. Song throws with fire, and Sandhagen just barely rolls through it and lands a pair of low kicks. “Sandman” dips and ducks the power punches that come at him, and he even lets a flying knee soar past him. Sandhagen plants a front kick on the chin and chains a leg kick into it, and Song smiles but does not connect with anything in response. Three punches from Song come up short, with his depth perception possibly struggling due to the plasma coating his eye. A clinch leads to an explosion from Song, who loads up on several big punches one after the other. Sandhagen responds with his own combination, and the knee pops Song in the chops right before the horn blares. The cut on Song’s eye could be a fight-ender, so it remains to be seen how the doctor evaluates it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
The doctor tells Dean to keep an eye on the cut, but he is letting the fight continue into the third round. Song walks right into a body kick, and he replies in kind but it has less impact. Sandhagen kicks the lead leg and escapes out the side when Song sits down on a counter, and both men block high kicks. Sandhagen remains active with low kicks, and he ducks a massive haymaker of a right hand and shoots in on a takedown. Song stuffs it and clubs him with a left hand, and Sandhagen grits his teeth and retreats. Their heads clash together as Sandhagen attempts another takedown, and Song stops it in its tracks and makes Sandhagen pay with a trio of powerful punches. Sandhagen answers him with a step-in knee, and Song eats it like Szechuan beef and keeps on forging ahead. Song swings and misses with a salvo, and Sandhagen slides back and jabs a few times to cause the cut to start bleeding again. Song punches his way forward, but Sandhagen is the one who tags him with a few jabs. Sandhagen takes for a takedown to get a reaction, and then actually attempts one. Song gets shoved back to the wall, and scarlet fluid covers his face and turns it a brilliant shade. Song stings Sandhagen with a left hand, only for Sandhagen to nail him with an elbow. A takedown try from “Sandman” is staved off, and he brushes off a striking array that zooms at him. Sandhagen has a kick pound into the guard, and he snaps out a jab that causes Song to spit blood out. Sandhagen skirts on the outer edge of the cage as Song tries to cut him off, and it allows him to stay at his preferred range. Song bowls forward throwing hammers, and Sandhagen slips them and pokes him back with a few jabs. Song is prepared for a takedown entry from his opponent, but he absorbs a few jabs that chain into a left to the body. Sandhagen gets a flying knee through the guard, and blood is positively streaming down Song’s face. Once again, the doctor will have to make a tough call.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
Dean is informed by the doctor that should any more damage come around the eye, he needs to call the fight to protect Song from permanent damage. Song is thankful to keep going, and he loads up on several power strikes including a body kick and several strikes to the body. A response of a body kick from Sandhagen and two punches open it again, and Dean is watching it very closely. Sandhagen goes up high with a kick, and Song blocks and counters. Sandhagen marches forward with jabs from both arms as he switches stances, and he kicks the body. Song catches it and powers through it to trip “Sandman” up and take him to the mat. Plasma flows freely on Sandhagen’s face and into his mouth, and he explodes back to his feet and gets pushed back to the wire. Sandhagen spins him around and trips Song out. Song climbs back up, but he takes a head kick when he does. Song wings haymakers and catches Sandhagen, but Sandhagen is quick and accurate with jabs and straight punches. Sandhagen targets the wrecked eye with impunity, and Song gives chase and barely registers that his eyebrow is nearly hanging off his head. Sandhagen mixes up jabs and kicks, and Song’s power punches are telegraphed and largely hitting air. Song smiles when he takes punishment, and even though he dodges a few punches, Sandhagen goes the body and head. A single from Sandhagen succeeds in getting Song down to his seat, and he grinds his elbow on the cut. Blood streams from Song’s face, covering the mat with a dark red pool beneath his head. Sandhagen postures up with a few elbows, and Song practically laughs at him, giving his best “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression while on his back, drenched in hemoglobin. The horn sounds, and he cannot see out of his eye when he stands up.
The cutman tries to tend to the gash, but it is beginning to swell and it appears to be the type that even the most “just bleed” physician could not allow to continue. The doctor, who cleared Song to fight in Rounds 3 and 4, informs Dean that he does not like what he is seeing from the massacred eye of the 24-year-old. Dean does not hesitate, and he waves the fight off after hearing this, to save the youngster from long-lasting harm that could develop further with five more minutes of brutality.
This is a gruesome but fitting end to a violent and sanguine evening, one that comes with a week off to process all that transpired over the last few weeks. The UFC will return in October, and when it does, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Yadong Song R4 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo leans Sandhagen primarily because of his five-round experience and ability to recover from bad rounds. He notes that Sandhagen is a fluid striker with good combinations and BJJ, but he lacks takedown volume. Angelo is not confident and thinks the odds are wide. He considers a plus points bet on Yadong.

Considers plus points bet on Yadong.
"i am going to lean corey here in the pick but literally because this is a 25 minute fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen to win by decision. He argues that Sandhagen is the better striker overall with higher volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute) and has fought much tougher competition (Yan, Dillashaw, Sterling). Brady notes that Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has excellent striking defense. He believes Song Yadong's power is a threat, but Sandhagen's durability and output should carry him to a decision win. Brady also mentions that this is Song's first five-round fight, which could be a factor. He is surprised by the public support for Song as a dog.

decision
"give me san hagen to win give me san hagen to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody agrees Sandhagen is the more refined fighter with better cardio and versatility. He highlights Sandhagen's wrestling improvements since the Sterling loss and his ability to maintain high output. Cody thinks Song's lack of five-round experience and tendency to slow down will be exploited. He calls Sandhagen a good top ticket play but not the most confident pick on the card.

"i gotta agree with all your points i think he's got more experience i think he's got more versatility when you watch the fights themselves he's got a lot of output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong at plus 175 odds, placing one unit on him. He believes Song has enough output to make his harder shots count against Sandhagen's volume, and that the fight could be close enough for Song's power strikes to sway judges. He notes Sandhagen's year off and potential ring rust, and thinks the odds should be closer. He respects Sandhagen but sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Song Yadong moneyline at +175
"I took the odds on sonia dong here at plus 175. I mean i thought they were good odds on on a kid like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jacob picks Yadong, comparing his style to Petr Yan's and noting that Yadong is faster and more powerful now at 24. He believes Yadong's speed and power will close the distance and land big shots, potentially knocking down Sandhagen. Jacob thinks Yadong is peaking at the right time and can win by decision or finish.

Bet under 4.5 rounds at plus money.
"i think this is song and dawn's time to shine man i think that he is looking and and getting peaking at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen is the master of distance and will make Song whiff, tiring him out. Sandhagen's footwork and in-and-out movement will keep him out of the pocket where Song's power is most dangerous. Sandhagen's cardio is superior for five rounds, and he has been training BJJ with Ryan Hall to add submission threats. Song's best path is leg kicks or an early knockout, but Sandhagen's style is a tough puzzle for Song at this stage. I expect Sandhagen to take over as the fight goes on and win a decision.

Round 4 or 5 decision for Sandhagen at -115 on FanDuel is a good target
"the pick is sandhagen I think we'll see him do solidwork from the outside really start to open up the layer that this fight goes I think he takes home a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul thinks Sandhagen's five-round experience against TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan is a huge advantage. He notes Sandhagen's durability and high output will be key, as Song Yadong is a counter puncher who will struggle with Sandhagen's volume. Paul believes Sandhagen will outwork Song over five rounds, though he acknowledges Song's power and youth make it not a lock. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds at plus money.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"i think sonia dong is a excellent talent that we're gonna see so much more from in the moving forward in the in his ufc run but i do think minus 200 on so on san hagen is is more …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen by decision. He acknowledges Song Yadong is an underrated prospect but notes Yadong has struggled against rangy, mobile strikers who switch stances, like Kyler Phillips and Casey Kenny. He believes Sandhagen is too good, too rangy, and too smart, and will take over as the fight goes on. He expects Sandhagen to lose the first round but win the last three or four rounds, with scorecards like 48-47 or 49-46.

"i'm gonna go with sand hagen decision win based on the last three rounds"
WIN vs Marlon Moraes
KO (punches) R1 2:06 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 1 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 1 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 14 of 35 40% 10 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 14 of 35 40% 10 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Moraes vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
As part of a
significant record correction
across several UFC fighters coming from China, the pro record of Song (18-6-1, 1 NC; 7-1-1 UFC) will likely display differently than what it shows on the broadcast – but the Sherdog W/L tally is accurate after a deep dive by the underappreciated Fight Finder team. While the 24-year-old Song is on his way up, former title challenger Moraes (23-9-1, 5-5 UFC) has struggled as of late, albeit against only top-flight competition. During the introductions, referee Keith Peterson clears the building of nonsense. The 135ers touch gloves for their co-main assignment, and Song advances quickly to throw hands. Moraes answers with a few of his own, and he backs off to circle and pulls back on a kick that he decides not to throw. Moraes swipes forward with a left hand, and Song cracks him with a right hand behind the ear that nearly brings Moraes to his knees. The Brazilian recovers, but he is fighting off his back foot, still a bit stung, and Song gives chase. Song just misses with a huge uppercut, and Moraes counters and slides to the side and out. Both men throw heavy, fast combinations at one another, and Moraes absorbs a leg kick as he backs off. When Moraes swings a left hand, Song is there to put three in his face, and Moraes shakes his head and retreats. Exploding into action, “Magic” attacks with a swarm of punches that come up short of the mark.
Song strides forward, brimming with confidence, and unleashes a right hand that lands behind the ear, a left over the top and an uppercut that sends the former title challenger crashing to the canvas. Moraes does not know where he is as the back of his head bounces off the floor, and Song points down at the doomed fighter instead of jumping on top to demolish him with unnecessary ground-and-pound.
The lights may be on, but no one’s home for Moraes, as Peterson walks over and makes sure that Song won’t hammer the nail. Song sprints around the cage to celebrate his massive victory, having punched his ticket to huge opportunities going forward.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Marlon Moraes R1 2:06 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo hesitantly picks Song Yadong, primarily due to youth. He notes that Marlon Moraes is a savage striker with heavy leg kicks but has been figured out when pressured. He acknowledges that both fighters have similar recent records against top competition. His heart wants Moraes but his head says Yadong. He plans to find a way to bet on Moraes and may change his mind.

May bet on Marlon Moraes separately
"i need to go with yadong here i will find a way to bet on marlon marias i will be rooting for him and honestly i may change my mind on this pick later"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Moraes' severe cardio issues (only one round of gas) and declining durability (knocked out in his last four losses). He notes Yadong is young (24), improving, and showed a good chin. He expects Yadong to survive the first round and then finish Moraes in the second. He acknowledges Moraes is live in the first round but thinks Yadong's path is clear.

second round knockout
"i'm going to take song to win second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody picks Song Yadong but is hesitant due to Moraes' early danger. He notes Song's durability and youth, while Moraes has a compromised chin and gasses. He suggests the inside the distance prop for Song, as Moraes is likely to fade.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i think song yodang wins but they're really paying the price of a mission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong to win, highlighting Yadong's developing all-around game, granite chin, and ability to scramble back to his feet. He notes that Marlon Moraes has cardio and durability concerns, having been knocked out in four of his last five. Levi believes that when Yadong lands his shots, Moraes won't react well, leading to a knockout. He also mentions that he took Yadong straight in the spot.

took sonia dong straight in the spot
"give me songy dong to come out here and knock out marlon morish and i also took sonia dong straight in the spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Song Yadong is a durable, high-volume striker with good takedown defense, as shown against Casey Kenney. He trusts his chin and cardio, and is expected to march down Moraes after an early competitive round. Moraes has cardio issues and a questionable chin, and his move to Tiger Muay Thai may not fix his gas tank. Song is predicted to win by KO in round 3.

KO in round 3 predicted.
"I think Song will take that shit on the chin. I think he'll be able to endure it and I think he'll be able to start marching down Marlon the longer that this fight goes."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Paul is confident in Song Yadong, citing his chin, youth, and killer instinct. He notes Moraes' durability issues and tendency to fade. He suggests the inside the distance prop as a better bet than the moneyline.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i would say that yadong's in the same position he's the most legitimate chinese fighter on the roster"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong over Marlon Moraes, emphasizing that Moraes' chin is shattered after multiple KOs and a brutal beating from Merab Dvalishvili. He trusts Yadong's chin more and believes Yadong will commit with effective technique while Moraes will be hesitant. He predicts a brutal first-round KO, similar to Yadong's finish of Alejandro Perez, and sees this as a coming-out party for Yadong. He notes Yadong's youth and experience, stating he is not a green prospect.

first round KO
"i'm going to go with song yodong over malamari's first round ko brutal fashion end of marisa's career start of song yudong's insurgents towards the top of the bantamweight division"
Marlon Vera - Fight History
LOSS vs David Martínez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 42 of 145 28% 52 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Martínez 0 71 of 155 45% 86 of 173 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 5 of 39 12% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
2 Marlon Vera 0 13 of 40 32% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Martínez 0 21 of 43 48% 29 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 66 36% 25 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Martínez 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 42 of 145 28% 26 of 113 11 of 21 5 of 11 41 of 142 1 of 3 0 of 0
David Martínez 71 of 155 45% 48 of 126 16 of 20 7 of 9 67 of 148 1 of 2 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 5 of 39 12% 0 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 5 5 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 19 of 41 46% 10 of 28 5 of 7 4 of 6 16 of 36 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Marlon Vera 13 of 40 32% 10 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 13 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Martínez 21 of 43 48% 13 of 33 6 of 8 2 of 2 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 66 36% 16 of 51 8 of 13 0 of 2 23 of 63 1 of 3 0 of 0
David Martínez 31 of 71 43% 25 of 65 5 of 5 1 of 1 30 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

Angelo picks David Martínez, criticizing Marlon Vera as a fighter who often does nothing and then complains about decisions. He highlights Martínez's movement, volume, and defensive stats, and believes he will outwork Vera. He warns against betting on Vera as a dog, calling it a trap.

"David Martinez is the pick. The odds reflect it, but I am still 100% sure so many people are going to fall into the most stereotypical Cheeto Vera as a dog trap."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

Big Brady picks David Martínez, citing Marlon Vera's apparent lack of effort in recent fights. He notes Vera has shown no urgency against top competition and lost to Ian Zahabi. Martínez is young, hungry, and fast, and Brady believes he will win by decision, continuing Vera's frustrating streak.

decision
"Give me David Martinez to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Cody is concerned about Martinez taking a round off against Font and the high price. He sees split decision potential and notes Vera's durability and experience. However, he leans Martinez due to Vera's recent poor form and age, but suggests live betting Vera if he loses the first round.

"I end up with a David Martinez. Um, you know, if you're going to bet Marlon Vera, bet him after the first round because he is a really slow starter."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

Connor also picks Martinez but is more cautious, noting that Vera is a dangerous puncher who can hurt anyone. He points out that Martinez has not faced someone with Vera's power and could get knocked out. However, Connor believes Vera's tendency to let fights slip away and his declining athleticism will allow Martinez to win rounds with volume and pressure.

Vera's power; Martinez's untested chin; Vera's tendency to lose close fights; odds too wide
"I'm still going to pick Martinez just because I do think that Vera is increasing..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host considers this a dog-or-pass fight. Martínez is a heavy favorite at -294, but the host cannot bet him at that price. He notes that Vera has been passive and lost his last five decisions, and Martínez has home advantage. However, Vera is dangerous if he shows up, but the host hates betting on passive fighters. He passes.

"Martinez will probably win, but at these odds, you can't touch him. If you do want to bet this fight, you do have to take Ver. This is doggo or pass, but I hate betting on fighters that are very …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
David Martínez

James favors Martínez due to his superior footwork, kicking game, and volume, which should trouble Vera's forward pressure. He notes Vera's durability and power but believes Martínez can outpoint him over three rounds. James predicts a decision win for Martínez and suggests betting on Martínez by decision as a prop.

David Martínez via decision
"I got David Martinez to win this fight. I got him to win via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
David Martínez

The host picks David Martínez by decision, citing his slick striking, speed, and cardio. He believes Martínez will stick and move effectively, while Vera is reckless and a slow starter. He notes Vera's durability but expects Martínez to outland him and win a clear decision, similar to the Sean O'Malley fight but less dominant.

"Give me Martinez and Martinez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
David Martínez

Paul likes Martinez's speed and kickboxing, and believes he passed the Rob Font test. He notes Vera's slow starts and recent decline, but is not excited about the -310 price. He expects a close decision but picks Martinez to get the job done.

"I'm picking Martinez. I'm not excited about laying minus 310 on him though."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
David Martínez

The MMA Guru picks David Martínez, stating that Marlon Vera has looked inactive and frustrated since his loss to Sean O'Malley. He praises Martínez's chin, explosiveness, low kicks, and movement, noting that he beat Rob Font. He believes Vera is done as a fighter and that Martínez will outwork him.

"I'm going to have to go with David Martinez over Marlon Vera here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
David Martínez

Zane picks Martinez because Vera is on a three-fight losing streak and his style is falling apart. He notes that Vera's process was always dysfunctional, relying on late surges, and now he lacks the speed and durability to make it work. Martinez showed toughness against Rob Font and has the volume and pressure to outwork Vera, though Zane acknowledges Vera's power is a threat.

Vera's three-fight losing streak; Martinez's win over Rob Font; Vera's declining speed and durability; odds too wide (Vera +260)
"I think I'm going to pick Martinez here."
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 1 56 of 152 36% 56 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 81 of 152 53% 81 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aiemann Zahabi 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 24 of 62 38% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 56 of 152 36% 30 of 107 14 of 26 12 of 19 55 of 150 1 of 2 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 81 of 152 53% 47 of 107 20 of 28 14 of 17 79 of 149 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 11 of 40 27% 3 of 25 4 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 20 of 37 54% 11 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 21 of 50 42% 13 of 35 4 of 9 4 of 6 21 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 24 of 44 54% 16 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 24 of 62 38% 14 of 47 6 of 8 4 of 7 23 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 37 of 71 52% 20 of 47 9 of 13 8 of 11 37 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-130); Vera (+110)

Round 1
On his first losing streak since 2018, “Chito” Vera (23-10-1, 15-9 UFC) might lose his place in line with another defeat. He will have to stave off the surging Ariel Helwani—that is, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (13-2, 7-2 UFC). The three-round bantamweight affair will draw the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and the fight begins with the athletes going right for it.
Vera is the aggressor, pitching a head kick while walking the Canadian down. Zahabi gets away with a low kick, and chants of his surname rain down in the building. Kicks continue to come from both sides as range-finders, but neither man drills the other with anything clean. Vera tries to go upstairs with his shin, and Zahabi blocks it well in time. Zahabi chambers and fires an inside leg kick to decent success, and he parries a jumping front kick that is the response. Vera stomps at the knee of his opponent, and he stutter-steps his way forward with a high kick. Vera then punches his way into another head kick effort, to which Zahabi chops his foe’s lead leg back. Left hooks are traded by the bantamweights, and Zahabi’s defensive shell protects him from the worst of the oncoming fire.
Zahabi splits the guard with a jab and follows with a right, and Vera greets him back with another calf kick. “Chito” reaches the body with a knee, and his low kick is soon to follow. Zahabi marches forward and lets his hands go, reaching his foe with a left but backing off when Vera starts to rev up his own engine. Vera chains a front kick into two leg kicks, one on either side of Zahabi’s front wheel. Zahabi rushes after the Ecuadorian, pulling back when Vera pump-fakes a knee. Vera sticks out an elbow that opens up Zahabi’s nose, which starts dripping down his face. “Chito” attacks with swinging kicks, and his knee is flashing at the right time to prevent Zahabi from bearing down on him. Zahabi bites down on his mouthpiece to engage, and he walks through a body kick to swing two big right hands. Vera backs him off with an elbow up top, and the close round ends with a Zahabi body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 2
Between rounds, a replay shows that Vera is struggling with his ring finger on his left hand. When the bell starts the second stanza, adrenaline kicks back in and he closes his fist to throw it. Zahabi starts off aggressively, walking into a left hand so that he can bash Vera in the lead leg with a kick. Vera retaliates with a high kick that slaps off the guard, and he loops a right hand around the raised guard. Vera stomps down low with his kick and whips a left hand at the Canadian, and he catches a body kick to whip a pair of punches at his foe. Vera chains a front kick into a pair of punches, and he stans Zahabi up with a step-in elbow. When he tries for a knee, Zahabi intercepts him before getting air with a right hand. Body kicks land from both men, and Vera staggers his opponent with a piston-like jab. Zahabi bounces off the fence and rolls to grab the fence several times to pull himself upright, and Herzog appears to miss the fouls. Zahabi gets up, and Vera stalks him down like a predator following wounded prey.
Vera connects with a pinpoint accurate jab, and this time Zahabi does not flinch. Vera rips a left to the liver after going up top, and he has nothing to fear with absolutely zero offense coming back his direction. Vera whips a question mark kick up around the guard, and he strides through to drill Zahabi with long punches. Vera appears to let the damaged man off the hook, even with his Superman punch partially connecting. Vera scores a high kick and tries for a knee to the breadbasket, and Zahabi is back in full swing and swings with full force. Zahabi backs Vera up to the wall with looping punches, and Vera rebounds off the wall and appears no worse for wear. Vera ducks down to let a punch bang into the top of his skull, and he eats a knee to the body. The Canadian appears angered, letting loose with one-twos. Vera stifles him briefly with a kick to the knee, and when the horn sounds, they stand right in front of each mean-mugging until Herzog has to split them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
Vera says hello in the final round with a head kick attempt. Zahabi drives him back with his own try, so Vera boots him with a hook kick. He then checks a kick coming his direction, and preemptively counters his opponent with a left hook right before Zahabi throws. Zahabi scores a hard low kick that draws a stance switch from the Ecuadorian, and the two trade it out from up close. Zahabi gains some space and kicks the side, and he keeps spinning with a back fist that misses by a mile. Vera showboats with the matador pantomime, but he has to keep his guard up because Zahabi is bearing down on him. Vera busts Zahabi’s nose back open with a flush knee, and it is no longer just dripping a wee bit. Zahabi chomps down on his gumshield and lets fly kicks and wide punches, and Vera rebounds off the wire and guard most of them to reset. Vera then scores a left hand to the temple, and he is met with a body kick. Vera intercepts his man with a check left hook, and Zahabi jacks him in the jaw with a front kick.
The two go shot-for-shot as they bash, bruise and bloody one another, with Vera looking for a step-in knee as Zahabi retaliates with an elbow. Vera pops his man with a left hand, spurring Zahabi into kicks from both legs. Vera kicks low, and he is caught upstairs with a right hand and further stung with a leg kick. “Chito” does not bat an eye and instead lashes out with his own offense, and Zahabi attacks his front leg repeatedly. Zahabi doubles up on straight left hands, and Vera’s low kick lands with a pop and slips a left hand around the guard. Vera is backed up from the offense of his adversary, with Zahabi blitzing forward and finally drawing blood on the bridge of Vera’s nose. Vera does not even register the damage, instead getting right back in Zahabi’s face with fists and feet. “Chito” just misses with an axe kick, and the fight could still be hanging in the balance with 15 seconds to go. Vera lands a leg kick, and Zahabi races forward and gets clipped. They both go nuts with one final brawl, hitting one another in the chin with everything they have left. The round ends, and both corners lift their fighters up in the air to celebrate a tight, brutal slugfest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Vera)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo slightly leans Chito Vera, noting his durability, volume, and ability to win in scrambles. He questions Zahabi's win streak, calling the Aldo win lucky and the Basharat win a robbery. He worries about Vera's slow starts in three-round fights and potential chin decline.

"I think I'm going to slightly lean Chito Vera as far as a pick is concerned."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady is unsure which version of Vera shows up. He thinks if Vera is motivated, he can win with his striking and elbows. He notes Vera always loses the first round but could steal rounds two and three. He picks Vera by close decision, acknowledging the fight has split decision written all over it.

"I'm going to take Vera to win this fight. I do think it's going to be a close fight... give me vera to win by a close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Cody picks Zahabi, citing Marlon Vera's slow starts and accumulated damage. He notes Vera has been hit over 1600 times in the UFC and is slowing down. Zahabi's high volume, precision, and methodical game plan will allow him to win rounds. Cody expects Zahabi to win by decision.

Zahabi by decision, over
"I got Zahabi just fighting the good methodical game plan, breaking him down, winning a decision. So Zahabi, Zahabi by decision, and the over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Connor picks Vera, but with hesitation. He notes that Vera is a slow-paced fighter who lets opponents rally early, then becomes more aggressive in later rounds. Connor thinks Zahabi will give Vera no choice but to get aggressive, and Vera's durability and power could pay off. However, he acknowledges that Vera's style doesn't deserve to win rounds and that Zahabi could be one of the fighters who works around it.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I think I'll go with Cheeto too. I mean, I just think, uh, you know, in a weird way, like he was, um, poised to make Aldo really very stressed out and uncomfortable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

James calls this a close fight and struggles to pick a winner. He favors Zahabi due to the Canadian crowd and potential judging bias, as seen in Zahabi's win over Jose Aldo. He notes Vera's durability and cardio advantages but questions Vera's recent form and damage taken. James predicts a split decision for Zahabi.

"I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi here. I'm going to go with Aan Zahabi. Like maybe robbery decision, you know, or maybe split decision uh and then the Canadian judges score it for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host thinks Vera's aggressive style will be too much for Zahabi, who prefers to sit back at distance and counter. He expects Vera to continuously push forward with aggressive output, leading to a late finish or a decision win.

late finish or decision
"I think his run ends here as the aggressive style of Vera should end up being too much for Zahabi to deal with."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul leans Zahabi, noting his volume and precision. He mentions Vera's slow starts and that Zahabi is Canadian, which could help in a close decision. Paul expects a close fight but gives the edge to Zahabi.

"Slightly into Zahabi here. you know, another fight that I expect to be close and competitive."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The MMA Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Marlon Vera. He criticizes Vera's recent performances, calling him a punching bag and easy to game plan against. He praises Zahabi's team and game planning, and his toughness shown against Aldo. He predicts Zahabi will use takedowns and clean striking to win a clear decision, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Aiemann Zahabi getting this one done by decision, 30-27, clears the scorecards."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Zane picks Vera, but hesitantly. He notes that Vera's style is not built to win rounds, but he is dangerous and can rally in later rounds. Zane thinks Zahabi's physical limitations may catch up to him against elite talent, and Vera's power and durability could be the difference. However, he acknowledges Zahabi's impressive win over Aldo and his unique ability to fight off both front and back foot.

Odds: Vera opened at +210, currently +115; Zahabi opened at -250, currently -135.
"I'm just gonna pick Cheeto on the, like, I can't keep, I can't watch as a hobby against a really elite talent and see those moments where they just catch him out..."
CANCEL vs Mario Bautista
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 52 of 117 44% 67 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Marlon Vera 1 45 of 90 50% 59 of 104 2 of 14 14% 0 0 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 10 of 12 83% 22 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:20
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 18 of 40 45% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marlon Vera 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 26 of 59 44% 27 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 1 21 of 50 42% 23 of 52 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deiveson Figueiredo 52 of 117 44% 15 of 67 15 of 22 22 of 28 46 of 108 6 of 9 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 45 of 90 50% 18 of 57 15 of 20 12 of 13 42 of 84 1 of 2 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 2 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 7 6 of 14 2 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 18 of 40 45% 1 of 17 5 of 9 12 of 14 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 14 of 28 50% 4 of 15 5 of 7 5 of 6 13 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 26 of 59 44% 12 of 40 9 of 12 5 of 7 23 of 55 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 21 of 50 42% 11 of 37 8 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Figueiredo (-155), Vera (+130)

Round 1
Set in the “featured fight of the night” slot instead of the co-main event as would be reasonable, bantamweight strikers Vera (23-9-1, 15-8 UFC) and Figueiredo (23-3-1, 12-3-1 UFC) do not care much about card position as long as they can hit someone today. Vera has never been finished as a pro, while “Daico” has not lost since relocating to 135 pounds. “Fight of the Night” could be right around the corner, and referee Keith Peterson is will make sure no nonsense comes between them. Eager to throw leather, they ignore a glove touch and meet in the middle of the cage. Vera measures his range with a low kick, and he lands another on the calf to briefly disrupt the balance of his foe. Figueiredo fires one right back, leading Vera to punch the ball of his foot at Figueiredo’s knee. Figueiredo kicks the inner thigh and may have grazed the cup, but there is no pause. Figueiredo strikes his way into distance, and Vera uses a solid left hand to back him off. Figueiredo chops at the front leg, and he digs a right to the body and dips a punch to hit a takedown. Vera closes his guard and keeps tight wrist control to stop the Brazilian from striking him from above. Figueiredo frees his arms for a moment and drops down a heavy hammerfist, stacking Vera up so he can attempt to break out of the leg grip around his waist. Vera lifts his guard up higher, and this allows Figueiredo to land some ground strikes. Figueiredo stands back up to find a better way in, and Vera smacks him in the face with an upkick. This results in a furious scramble where Vera works his way back to his feet, and Figueiredo follows. Vera starts stalking the former flyweight king down, whipping out a high kick and protecting his jaw from a leaping left hand. Figueiredo winds up with a fierce low kick, and Vera flinches when Figueiredo fakes a second. Vera scores a jab and leaps forward with a knee, and Figueiredo scoops him off his feet and dumps him to the ground, landing in half guard and opening up with elbows right off the bat. Figueiredo drives home an elbow or two before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 2
The second round begins with a low kick from Figueiredo, and he checks a kick back his way and whips one to the ribs. Vera clashes forward with a left hand, and he doubles up on leg kicks. Figueiredo hops back and forth, swatting Vera with a left hook. Vera attempts a head kick, and Figueiredo ducks down to go for a takedown, so Vera recoils it. Vera pushes out front kicks to the leg, and Figueiredo retaliates with a liver kick. Vera overswings, and Figueiredo threatens a takedown, abandons it and comes over the top with a right hand. Vera sticks a front kick to the solar plexus, and he low kicks his way in with a jab. Figueiredo ducks low for a takedown, and the Ecuadorian shoves him away and delivers a heavy low kick as Figueiredo backs off. Vera pierces the guard with a left hand, and Figueiredo punches him in the body. Vera does not like it, giving him a rude gesture because he thought it landed low. Figueiredo attempts a takedown, and Vera hops away and resets with a jab. Figueiredo zings a left over the top, and they trade leg kicks. Vera scores a front kick after checking a kick, and Figueiredo connects with a right hook. Figueiredo doubles up on a jab and comes out firing with a right hand, and Vera is ready for it. They go tit-for-tat with strikes, neither having a serious advantage, and Figueiredo tries for a takedown that results in him banging his forehead on his opponent’s. Vera kicks his way into a tie-up, and he connects with a body shot before the bell. Figueiredo protests about something after the bell, and Peterson gets between them to usher them back to their corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
Figueiredo starts the last round aggressively, shooting in for a takedown that is rebuffed by his opponent courtesy of a guillotine. Vera kicks at him, and Figueiredo grabs the leg and hops back to the fence to defend it. Vera breaks free, and he flicks out a few jabs. Figueiredo jabs him right back, and he shrugs off a calf kick to deliver a similar response. Figueiredo stabs a right hand to the body, leans back and takes a low kick. Vera follows a ducking Figueiredo with an uppercut, and he blitzes forward to land a pair of punches. Figueiredo triples up on strikes, and Vera parries and escapes. Vera comes up short on a head kick, and Figueiredo kicks him in the ribs before aiming a right to the lower chest. Figueiredo aims a left to the body and another, and he has a front kick push him back and gets picked at from a leg kick. Figueiredo sits down on a straight right hand, shaking the Ecuadorian to his core and setting him on his seat. Vera climbs back up to his feet, and Figueiredo beans him with a right up top and a left to the ribcage. The Brazilian has a fire lit under his belly, aiming single accurate strikes that land flush, and Vera aims to quell that fire with his own body shot response. Figueiredo takes his time rather than selling out on offense, and he rifles a right hand to the sternum. Vera connects with a heavy leg kick, and Figueiredo does the same in response. Figueiredo ducks a looping left hand in pursuit of a takedown, and Vera stands him up and is caught with a right hand. Figueiredo shoots in on the hips, and Vera sprawls effectively, backs the Brazilian off and kicks him in the body. Vera jabs his way in and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past his opponent, and Figueiredo flirts with two takedowns that both fail thanks to Vera’s stalwart defense. The attempts shut down Vera’s combinations, and “Daico” fakes another that makes Vera drop to his knees. Figueiredo grins and starts throwing hands in the pocket, catching Vera and eating a right hand back. Vera goes to the liver, and Figueiredo waves him on. This initiates a brief brawl, and they end up in a Thai clinch and think about knees. Vera finds another way in with a knee, and when he lands on the mat, Figueiredo times an uppercut to sting Vera right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (29-28 Figueiredo)

The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo because he expects him to use wrestling to neutralize Vera's durability and momentum. He notes Vera is a slow starter and Figueiredo only needs to win one of the first two rounds. He thinks Figueiredo saw Vera eat a huge knee and will avoid striking exchanges.

"I think divon figuro beats Cheeto"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady thinks this fight could go either way and has split decision written all over it. He notes both fighters are low-volume moment winners, but Vera has never been finished while Figueiredo has been finished in two of three losses. He mentions Vera often loses the first round, suggesting a live bet opportunity, but ultimately picks Vera to win by split decision.

Live bet on Vera after first round
"I'm going to take Vera here um this line has came down a little bit I think Marlin ver is like plus 150 last week"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody picks Marlon Vera as a slight underdog, citing Figueiredo's tendency to gas and Vera's pressure and pace. He notes that Figueiredo has low volume and relies on takedowns, but Vera is a larger bantamweight who scrambles well and can break him. Cody worries about Vera giving up the first round but thinks he can take over in the second and third. He also mentions that Figueiredo's last flyweight fight was poor and he's been out struck at 135.

"I'll take that slight Underdog shot on Marlon Vera as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel picks Chito Vera but with hesitation due to Vera's inconsistency. He notes that Vera performs best against shorter opponents and has the durability and toughness to outlast Figueiredo. However, he worries about Vera's tendency to not let his hands go. He thinks Figueiredo has slowed down on the feet and that Vera can win if he shows up, but acknowledges it's a hit-or-miss proposition.

"I'm gonna pick Chito Vera to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo's overall style will triumph. He will use calf kicks to open up takedowns and land enough damage to grind out a decision win.

"I think Figaro's overall style will allow him to Triumph I think he'll utilize a lot of calf kicks to eventually open up his takedowns and I think he'll be able to land enough damage and grind this fight all …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Paul picks Deiveson Figueiredo, noting that Vera gives up first rounds and in a three-round fight that's hard to overcome. He thinks Figueiredo can mix in wrestling and win the first two rounds. Paul acknowledges Vera's pressure could break Figueiredo but leans toward the former champion's early output. He also mentions the line has moved and that Vera was a bigger underdog earlier.

"I'm going to side with uh figgy um ever so slightly here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo over Marlon Vera, believing Figueiredo is a level above in striking and will mix in grappling. He notes Vera's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He expects Figueiredo to control the first two rounds on the ground and win a 29-28 decision. He mentions Figueiredo's improved cardio at bantamweight.

decision
"I am going to go of davidon figero over Maron Vera I think figero is pretty [ __ ] good"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 230 of 356 64% 232 of 358 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 89 of 241 36% 89 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 27 of 36 75% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean O'Malley 0 51 of 83 61% 51 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean O'Malley 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Marlon Vera 0 17 of 54 31% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean O'Malley 0 56 of 84 66% 57 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean O'Malley 0 61 of 95 64% 62 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 230 of 356 64% 150 of 268 61 of 68 19 of 20 227 of 352 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 89 of 241 36% 41 of 165 14 of 35 34 of 41 85 of 235 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 27 of 36 75% 7 of 14 10 of 12 10 of 10 27 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 9 of 21 42% 1 of 7 1 of 5 7 of 9 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 51 of 83 61% 36 of 66 11 of 12 4 of 5 51 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 46 34% 7 of 29 0 of 5 9 of 12 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean O'Malley 35 of 58 60% 21 of 43 13 of 14 1 of 1 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 17 of 54 31% 7 of 39 4 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean O'Malley 56 of 84 66% 42 of 70 11 of 11 3 of 3 56 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 26 of 73 35% 15 of 56 5 of 11 6 of 6 26 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Sean O'Malley 61 of 95 64% 44 of 75 16 of 19 1 of 1 58 of 91 3 of 4 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 21 of 47 44% 11 of 34 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 43 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.

Over on rounds (hoping for 3.5 round line) is the best play.
"I am going to pick the dog I opened up this whole video talking about five of the seven Main Event dogs won this year"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.

win by decision
"I'm taking Al here by decision I I I don't feel great about it to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'm still picking om Ali I think he wins on volume I think it's going to be relatively close and probably closer than the money line suggest"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.

"I'm leaning towards sha Ali but from a betting perspective right now plus 240 plus 250 I mean listen man like I said if Cheeto can take this ass whooping up front make it a dirty fight like who knows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.

"Shaan Ali is the Chinese government he decides what you download."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.

Fox picks under 4.5 rounds at +125, believing the fight ends inside the distance.
"I think Ali takes care of Vera especially with Vera giving up rounds as he will."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.

O'Malley by decision, possible live bet on Vera if O'Malley doesn't finish early
"my prediction is still Shan I believe his Wizardry in the Striking I believe his game planning and ability to execute it will allow him to put together a good enough game plan to outwork Marlin ver who gets caught …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.

Vera round 4 (+2200), Vera round 5 (+3000)
"I'll take that Underdog in the main event looking at om Ali as well not to discredit him but prior to that Marlin Vera fight he had effectively beaten terion wear and um Andre Suk matath Jose konz and Eddie …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.

decision
"I think om Al is going to be able to pick him at range and I think we're going to see Maron Vera stink up the performance"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 141 of 251 56% 141 of 251 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 113 of 246 45% 113 of 246 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 0 49 of 84 58% 49 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 45 of 91 49% 45 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 53 of 101 52% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 30 of 84 35% 30 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 141 of 251 56% 109 of 212 9 of 14 23 of 25 138 of 246 3 of 4 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 113 of 246 45% 53 of 177 20 of 28 40 of 41 111 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 39 of 66 59% 27 of 51 3 of 5 9 of 10 38 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 38 of 71 53% 14 of 44 8 of 11 16 of 16 38 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 49 of 84 58% 37 of 71 2 of 3 10 of 10 49 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 45 of 91 49% 23 of 64 7 of 11 15 of 16 45 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 53 of 101 52% 45 of 90 4 of 6 4 of 5 51 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 30 of 84 35% 16 of 69 5 of 6 9 of 9 28 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)

Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.

Parlay with Zhang Weili
"Cheeto Vera is the pick I have money on him I've got him in a nice little parlay... Pedro Munoz is going to come forward work that low leg kick and stand in front of Cheeto and cheeto's gonna blast …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.

win by decision
"I'll take uh the dog and Pedro Munoz to pull it off and I'll take Munoz to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.

live bet Vera after round 1
"for me personally yeah I'm gonna have to take some underdogs here and there so yeah so the official pick will be Pedro Munoz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.

Vera by decision; possibility of first finish for either fighter
"I think Vera is going to push the pace second third rounds and get this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.

"I think Vera is going to win the fight I think he could even finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.

over 2.5 rounds
"I still lean chitovera here but I think you know taking the over two and a half is probably the best way to go about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Pedro Munoz bad decision 29-28"
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 58 of 158 36% 73 of 177 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 128 of 280 45% 187 of 378 3 of 12 25% 0 0 7:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 69 46% 47 of 99 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 18 of 29 62% 55 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
5 Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 36 38% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Marlon Vera 0 22 of 48 45% 29 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 58 of 158 36% 28 of 105 13 of 29 17 of 24 53 of 152 5 of 5 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 128 of 280 45% 84 of 226 16 of 23 28 of 31 107 of 241 2 of 3 19 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 69 46% 20 of 55 2 of 3 10 of 11 18 of 41 0 of 0 14 of 28
2 Cory Sandhagen 6 of 15 40% 4 of 10 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 18 of 29 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Cory Sandhagen 20 of 56 35% 8 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 32 of 67 47% 17 of 48 6 of 9 9 of 10 32 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 38 34% 6 of 25 4 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 24 of 67 35% 19 of 59 2 of 4 3 of 4 23 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Cory Sandhagen 14 of 36 38% 6 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 5 10 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 1
Marlon Vera 22 of 48 45% 14 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sandhagen (-165), Vera (+140)

Round 1
The UFC knew what it was doing when it put this fight together, and made sure fans would appreciate it by moving it from the UFC Apex to an 18,000-seat arena in San Antonio. Bantamweight greatness looms, and Vera (20-7-1, 14-6 UFC) would like nothing more than to put Sandhagen (15-4, 8-3 UFC) away and possibly earn a crack at gold. “The Sandman” is no easy out, having never been stopped with strikes, so a back-and-forth, blood-and-guts battle may loom for the next 25 minutes. Referee Dan Miragliotta is in it for the long haul, and the fighters are ready to handle their business, electing to not bump fists before launching them at one another’s faces. Sandhagen leads off with several range-finding jabs and low kicks, and he punches into Vera’s raised hands. Sandhagen walks “Chito” down and kicks at his lead leg a few times, and Vera absorbs a one-two on the dome while holding off on retaliating. Sandhagen drives Vera back to the wall with a left, and Vera strings two jabs into a chipping kick. Sandhagen works low kicks into jabs, and Vera pushes forth a one-two when “Chito” chants echo throughout the building. Vera hand-fights as Sandhagen walks forward calmly, and he allows Sandhagen to score on him repeatedly. Sandhagen ducks a jab to loose a solid left hook, and Vera takes it on the chin and subsequently absorbs another. Sandhagen bears down on his man with a few punches and a head kick while Vera escapes, and Vera he swats away a few punches that zip at him. Sandhagen leaps at his foe with a jump knee, and Vera parries it and is forced to defend a takedown effort. Sandhagen smoothly trips Vera’s leg out and plants him on his seat, and he postures up and hammers Vera with punches and elbows. Vera closes his guard as he gets shoved to the wall with his neck trapped at the corner of the floor and the fence. Sandhagen pummels “Chito” with elbows, and Vera replies with a few on his back to split open a cut on the top of Sandhagen’s forehead. Sandhagen continues to bombard his downed adversary with elbows as Vera looks to kick him off, but the listless Vera blocks the majority of them and seems content to remain on his back. Sandhagen ends the round with several more pounding elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and Sandhagen is the aggressor right out of the gate. They trade front kicks, and Vera is backed up to the wall as Sandhagen opens up with a right hand. Vera aims a punch to the body, and he front kicks and chops at Sandhagen’s lead calf a few times to slow him. Sandhagen blitzes with a few uppercuts, and he secures a single-leg takedown and puts “Chito” on his back. Vera defends with a guillotine choke before he even hits his seat, and he releases it without burning his arms out as Sandhagen steps over to half guard. Sandhagen starts to drop down left hands and elbows as Vera is pinned to the floor, and his top control is smothering and frustrating for the Ecuadorian. Vera turns to his side as he eats elbows, and Sandhagen allows him to do that so that he can posture up and drill him with punches. Vera hooks a foot beneath his elbow to flirt with a heel hook, and Sandhagen lowers himself down and takes side control on the side to continue his attack. Vera turns once more, nearly giving up his back as he attempts to escape, and he leans back down when Sandhagen’s elbows start to have an appreciable effect. Sandhagen looks to isolate Vera’s right arm, but he cannot hold it as Vera slides out and explodes to his feet. Vera gets off a front kick to the chest, and he checks a calf kick. They trade jabs, and Sandhagen follows one with an uppercut that gets Vera’s attention. Sandhagen reaches his man with punches on the outside of the guard, and Vera misses when retaliating. Vera catches a body kick, and he lets it go when Sandhagen posts off his other arm and fights back up. Vera walks forward without throwing much in the way of offense, and Sandhagen dodges the strikes that come at him before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 3
“Chito” rushes to the center of the cage to start off, having dropped the first two rounds unquestionably. Vera does not throw as Sandhagen is active from a distance, and he finally chambers and fires a head kick that is blocked. Sandhagen replies with a few long jabs, and Vera answers that with a front kick to the sternum. Vera reaches a left hand over the guard, and it is one-and-done while Sandhagen switches stances constantly and prods with punches and kicks. A blocked from kick from Sandhagen causes him to fall over, and when he climbs back up, Vera meets him with a thudding calf kick that stuns Sandhagen momentarily. Vera stomps the front knee and reaches with his left hand, and he kicks the body. Vera stuffs an oncoming takedown and makes his foe pay with a front kick, but Sandhagen strings together a few punches and a body kick to respond. Vera drills his opponent with a one-two, and Sandhagen walks through it and snaps the head back with an uppercut. As Vera loops a left, Sandhagen changes levels but cannot complete the takedown. Vera pushes off and starts to walk Sandhagen down, and they trade right hands. Sandhagen swipes at him with a clean left hook, and Vera tries to give him one back but Sandhagen is faster and beats him to the punch. They both get off front kicks in an exchange, and Vera goes up high with a kick that slams into the shoulder. Vera jabs to the body, and Sandhagen’s looping uppercut finds its home again. Vera swings while Sandhagen fires punches at him, and they miss while Sandhagen’s rangier blows connect. “Chito” jumps forward with a front kick, and he stalks after Sandhagen and has his lead leg kicked for it. At the waning seconds, Vera jumps at his opponent with a knee, but Sandhagen is feet away at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and Sandhagen strikes first with a front kick, and he turns through with momentum to land a spinning back kick. Sandhagen punches his way forward with an uppercut, and he charges for a double. Vera stands him up and dings him with a knee, but Sandhagen tries again and fail once more. When they separate, Sandhagen gets off a few punches before ducking for a double, and Vera’s sprawl is excellent as he remains on his feet. Sandhagen digs a left to the liver and moves actively and frequently to not stand still in front of his opponent. Vera attempts to cut angles and back Sandhagen off, but “The Sandman” connects with several punches and has a flying knee bounce of Vera’s raised arms. Vera lands one single jab, and Sandhagen strings three punches and a low kick together – but the kick is checked. Sandhagen jabs, staying elusive and switching stances relentlessly. Vera cannot seem to lock him down or find the timing, and he swings with a left hook that Sandhagen dodges. Vera kicks the calf hard, and that kick is checked. Sandhagen swipes with a left hook, and Vera chains a few punches to the body up to a few to the head. Sandhagen jabs, switches stances, and jabs with the other lead hand, flustering “Chito” with his awkward movement and timing. Sandhagen loops a left over the guard, and he sits down on a low kick that Vera cannot defend. The crowd is extremely restless after the relative lack of action compared to its initial promise, as fans start whistling and holding up illuminated cellphones. Vera is similarly irritated, trying and failing to chase down and corner the Colorado native. Vera reaches his man with a front kick and a left hand, but Sandhagen is able to block the subsequent efforts. Vera spins with a kick before the horn, and the audience is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 5
The last round of this disappointing – from an action standpoint, not tactically – headliner begins, and Sandhagen is happy to pick up where he left off. Sandhagen pushes the pace a little with a few heavier jabs after Vera lands flush a few times, and he shoots for a takedown. Vera stuffs it and takes a knee square in the midsection. Vera is tripped out and tackled to the mat, and he tries to throw up upkicks and may have landed an illegal blow to a grounded Sandhagen in the process. Sandhagen fights off a high guard and submission setup, and he allows Vera to roll laterally so that he can lower himself into the guard. Sandhagen is comfortable taking top position, and Vera kicks him in the chest and gets away with another slapping foot to the downed Sandhagen’s face. Vera explodes to his feet at the midpoint of the final frame, and Sandhagen lines up several punches to back Vera off. “Chito” tosses out a half-hearted leg kick, and he turns to fire one to the body. Vera knocks Sandhagen back with two punches, but “The Sandman” is not concerned as he gets right back to pressuring the pressure fighter. Sandhagen keeps changing stances and jabbing and poking at Vera with feet and fists, and he dodges and parries the lumbering but looping punches that come at him. Vera jumps forward with a left hook, and Sandhagen replies in kind. Vera reaches at the end of a jabbing punch, only to be met with Sandhagen’s short combination. Sandhagen kicks high off the guard, and Vera spins with a kick to the ribs. Vera pressures, and he staves off a rushing double. Vera catches a kick and slams his foot into the body from an odd angle, and he takes Sandhagen from behind and pushes him to the wall. Vera connects with a solid elbow, and he pours it on with high kicks from both legs, swinging punches and kicks, and anything else he can muster. Instead of throwing this all during the first 24-plus minutes of the match, Vera saved it for one final, desperate effort, and Sandhagen blocks or dodges the worst of it. As Vera charges like a bull, Sandhagen points at him, and the last horn blows to put an end to the less-than-thrilling main attraction. In his post-fight interview, Sandhagen states that he would “feel slimy” if he asked for a title shot over Merab Dvalishvili, so he prepares a line and challenges the Georgian to a fight. If that comes together, we will be here for it. Next week, there is a break from the UFC – but there will be Fight Circus, so stay tuned for coverage on that – and we return on April 8 with UFC 287. We will also be for here for that, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen (50-45 Sandhagen)

The Official Result
Cory Sandhagen def. Marlon Vera via Split Decision (47-48, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

"I gotta go with Corey here because he is durable and I think that insane power of Cheeto is gonna matter as much on somebody like Corey because I don't see Corey stopping."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Vera by KO/TKO in round 4
"I'm gonna take Vera here for the doll as a dog and say that either he does find the chin of Corey sandhagen at some point in this fight... I'll say vera for a fourth round knockout win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Sandhagen by decision; Sandhagen over 107.5 significant strikes; fight goes over 2.5 rounds
"I will go with Corey sanderhagen based on pure volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen opened -163, currently -172; Vera opened +143, currently +141. Notes gamblers favor Sandhagen.
"I think Corey Sandhagen is Cheeto's Robert Whitaker, if we're sticking to the Yoel comparison."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

Vera by submission in round 3 (speculative, not a bet)
"I think it's going to be one of those Cheeto fights where it's going to look like Corey's winning he's winning he's winning oh my God Corey's knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

"I think that Corey sandagan is the best puzzle for varus since he's been on this winning streak"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

"I'm going with Corey sandhagen over Marlon Vera... I think sandhagen's going to be chopping that leg early on front kicking the body jab into the body and moving mixing it up against Marlon Vera"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Mentions odds: Sandhagen -172, Vera +141. Notes the line is slowly getting wider toward Sandhagen.
"I have to pick Sandhagen too. Vera is scary right now... but Sandhagen is dangerous and dynamic enough."
WIN vs Dominick Cruz
KO (head kick) R4 2:17 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 3 61 of 156 39% 63 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dominick Cruz 0 92 of 249 36% 100 of 259 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 1 9 of 33 27% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 61 34% 29 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
2 Marlon Vera 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 32 of 78 41% 32 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dominick Cruz 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
4 Marlon Vera 2 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dominick Cruz 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 61 of 156 39% 35 of 121 13 of 21 13 of 14 54 of 146 5 of 6 2 of 4
Dominick Cruz 92 of 249 36% 54 of 193 16 of 32 22 of 24 89 of 245 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 9 of 33 27% 4 of 25 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 2
Dominick Cruz 21 of 61 34% 12 of 49 1 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 19 of 52 36% 9 of 40 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 32 of 78 41% 17 of 55 7 of 14 8 of 9 31 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 21 of 49 42% 14 of 39 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 28 of 80 35% 21 of 68 2 of 6 5 of 6 28 of 79 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marlon Vera 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Cruz 11 of 30 36% 4 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-210), Cruz (+180)

Round 1
It’s main event time, with former champion Cruz looking to make one last run at the title in front of the home folks. In his way is Vera, who’s won three straight and has title aspirations of his own. Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage for the evening’s featured bout. Cruz comes out aggressive iwth a high kick followd by a combination. Cruz with a head kick followed by a straight right hand. Cruz kicks to the body as Vera remains calm. A hard low kick for Cruz finds the mark. Vera throws a front kick and Cruz catches it and throws him on the canvas. Vera is right back up. Vera counters a low kick with a left hand and drops Cruz. the former champ pops right back to his feet. Cruz pressures with a combination, then has a head kick blocked. Cruz is forcing the issue with combinations. Cruz feints a takedown and misses with an overhand. Vera misses a front kick and Cruz pressures with punches. Cruz lands a low kick. A front kick down the middle lands for Vera. Cruz again pushes forward with a combination followed by a head kick. Again, Cruz blitzes forward with punches. With less than a minute to go, Cruz executes a nicely-timed takedown. Cruz is in full guard, looking to create space for ground-and-pound. Vera threatens with a triangle and Cruz stands. The round ends with Cruz kicking at his opponent’s legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 2
Vera opens with a high kick but Cruz blocks it. Cruz with another blitz of punches and he follows up with a low kick. Cruz with a low kick followed by a right hand. Cruz chips at the legs and then rushes forward with punches. Cruz stays busy with kicks and then counters as Vera moves in. Vera avoids another flurry of punches, but Cruz lands a nice right to the body. Cruz is mixing things up nicely, keeping Vera off balance. Cruz lands a leg kick, but Vera avoids the follow up combination. Another low kick lands for Cruz, but he can’t find the range on the ensuing flurry of punches. Cruz with a right to the body. He goes body-head and lands both. Vera finds the mark on a right hook. Cruz with a straight right, then a front kick down the middle and another right hand. Cruz shoots with 30 seconds, but Vera sprawls. Cruz lands a jab and Vera just misses a head kick before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 3
Cruz kicks the leg and follows up with a punching combination. Another heavy leg kick draws a reaction from Vera. Cruz flurries and a counter from Vera backs him up. Cruz slips and lands a punch even while moving awkwardly. Vera moves forward and follows a double jab with a powerful right that drops Cruz. The ex champ is right back up, though. Cruz feints a takedown and eats a left hook for his efforts. Cruz’s movement may have slowed ever so slightly. Cruz shoots and Vera sprawls on it and tags Cruz with a left. Cruz lands a jab and moves forward with punches. Vera jabs in response. Cruz’s volume isn’t quite what it was in earlier rounds. He lands a left and Vera answers with a body kick. Vera stuffs a takedown against the fence and lands some elbows to the side of the head. Cruz gives up and they’re back at range. Vera lans a jab before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 4
Vera eludes Cruz’s punches and the stuffs a takedown. A right from Cruz makes Vera stumble back but it’s more of a slip than anything. Cruz with a right to the body. A stiff left jab catches Cruz coming forward and sits him down. Cruz is up in a hurry but it’s the third knockdown of the night for Vera. Once again, Cruz isn’t landing with the volume he did early.
Cruz darts in and then dips his head off to the side. Vera is waiting for it, and he catches Cruz with a perfectly-timed head kick on the chin. Cruz faceplants into the canvas as a result of the blow. Vera follows up with three mostly unnecessary ground shots before Dean dives in to save Cruz
, who looks like his nose is badly damaged. That’s four in a row for Vera, whose power was on display throughout the fight.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Dominick Cruz via KO (Head Kick and Punches) R4 2:17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.

"i think dominic can pull this off but make sure you watch our tuesday night breakdown because i'm so on the fence with this pic i might change it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.

fourth round knockout
"i like marlon vera here to win i'll say fourth round knockout for marlon vera to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.

Live betting Vera after round one
"i'm basically on the same lines i mean i like marlon vera i've always said that this guy's built for five round fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.

Parlayed Vera with Bruno Silva at +102 odds. Also mentioned that Vera's line was -205 when he bet it, now -240.
"I'm taking Marlon Vera man, I just think that down the stretch third fourth fifth round once that movement starts to slow down once these calf kicks start to accumulate that's when is gonna be the time to go out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Dominick Cruz

The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.

Decision only Cruz at +150 (2 units); also mentions betting Cruz moneyline at +180 (2 units) and +200 (1 unit).
"i got in two units at plus 180 at the start of the week expecting money to come in on one of the greatest bantamweights of all time but the flashy and vicious nature of marlin vera seems to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.

Live betting Vera after round one or two
"i like vera to win i think the minus 230 is a little bit steep"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.

fourth round submission (d'arce choke)
"i'm going to be going with marlon vera getting this one done by tko in the fourth round... i'm actually going to go dash choke"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong by decision, noting that Yadong is a talented young fighter with good striking and takedown defense. He believes Vera does not have the wrestling to take Yadong down consistently, and that Yadong will win the first two rounds before potentially tiring in the third. He acknowledges Vera's finishing streak and danger in the third round, but thinks Yadong's durability and early rounds will carry him.

decision, close decision, Vera has 5 straight finishes
"I'm gonna go with Tsonga down here by decision I'm very close decision I think is going to win those first two rounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera via third-round TKO. He believes Vera will take the early punishment and then turn it up late, similar to his previous comebacks. He notes that Song Yadong has cardio and chin questions, and that Vera has been improving with Jason Perillo. He thinks if Song doesn't get an early knockout, Vera will finish him late.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna take [ __ ] on the upset man i'ma say cheeto by third round TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host picks Vera but expresses worry. He thinks Song Yadong's explosiveness will cause him to gas out at featherweight, while Vera's slow and steady pace will allow him to survive the early storm and finish in the third round. He notes Vera's reach advantage and natural size at featherweight.

Marlon Vera by third round TKO
"I think Marlon Vera's gonna get it done by third round TKO I just think that song you dong without being at 35 now he's got a bit more muscle mass on him he's gonna be throwing that like he would be at 35"