UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nate Landwehr
5.63 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Elkins
3.4 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.34 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.87 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Nate Landwehr - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO R3 0:27 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 63 of 155 40% 65 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 1 67 of 131 51% 67 of 131 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 0 27 of 43 62% 27 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:01
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 103 41% 43 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Landwehr 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 1 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 63 of 155 40% 54 of 142 7 of 9 2 of 4 63 of 153 0 of 2 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 67 of 131 51% 41 of 100 12 of 14 14 of 17 64 of 124 2 of 3 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 18 of 46 39% 14 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 27 of 43 62% 14 of 29 3 of 3 10 of 11 25 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 103 41% 38 of 96 4 of 6 1 of 1 43 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 33 of 64 51% 20 of 47 9 of 11 4 of 6 33 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 2
3 Nate Landwehr 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.

Cannot bet on Charrière due to unreliability of French fighters.
"Morgan's the pick. I'm very confident in that. But, I think we've learned you can't bet on them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.

decision
"I'll take Char to win this fight. I'll take it to win by decision. Hate the line, but I hate most lines on this card."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.

"I think you have to pick Charia here, but I like it. ... It's a great fight and it'll be a thriller because Landware won't ever give Charia space."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.

"Sherriier's slow pace striking approach caught up with him last time around as he came up short against Nathaniel Wood. And that could come back to haunt him here against Nate the Train, but I think ultimately we'll see Sherriier …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Morgan Sharier. I reckon he gets this win and then they look to put him on the Paris card. I think he'll get a TKO win over Nate Lamwear here in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.

"I think this is a good reasonable step back. ... I think you have to pick Charia here."
LOSS vs Dooho Choi
TKO (elbows) R3 3:21 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dooho Choi 0 25 of 67 37% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Nate Landwehr 0 78 of 116 67% 114 of 157 4 of 5 80% 0 0 7:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dooho Choi 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Nate Landwehr 0 40 of 66 60% 40 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Dooho Choi 0 12 of 30 40% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 23 of 29 79% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
3 Dooho Choi 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 21 71% 48 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dooho Choi 25 of 67 37% 13 of 47 9 of 15 3 of 5 15 of 55 10 of 12 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 78 of 116 67% 61 of 98 9 of 9 8 of 9 62 of 99 4 of 4 12 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dooho Choi 9 of 25 36% 2 of 11 4 of 10 3 of 4 6 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 40 of 66 60% 32 of 57 4 of 4 4 of 5 38 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dooho Choi 12 of 30 40% 7 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 23 7 of 7 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 23 of 29 79% 15 of 21 5 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Dooho Choi 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 15 of 21 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 9 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Doo Ho Choi vs. Nate Landwehr
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Landwehr (-142), Choi (+120)

Round 1
Strange card placement aside, this featherweight brawl was one the UFC brass considered guaranteed fireworks. It’s not a bird or a plane, it’s “The Train” Landwehr (18-5, 5-3 UFC). Standing across the cage from him will be “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni is as ready as anyone else for this one to go down. Before they swing for the bleachers, the strikers touch ‘em up. Landwehr practically runs into Choi’s hand, coming out so fired up. It is Choi who lands first, blasting Landwehr in the face with a surprise uppercut. Choi wraps a right hand around the guard, and he knocks Landwehr to a knee with a massive left hook. Landwehr bounces back and is in front of Choi, but Choi is attacking while Landwehr’s first strike of the fight is a stomping kick to the knee. Choi scores a leg kick and puts a few punches behind it, shaking “The Train” up. Landwehr tries to get a little space with a front kick as blood trickles from the inside corners of both eyebrows, and Choi crashes towards him with a blistering uppercut. Choi backs off with a leg kick, and he digs a left to the body and allows Landwehr to shoot on him so he can push Landwehr to his knees. Choi takes his back but does not try to get his hooks in. When Landwehr adjusts, Choi suddenly wraps his legs around his foe’s waist and to keep him on the canvas. Choi sits down comfortably and allows his opponent to spin around so they can stand up together. Choi drives a knee to the midsection when Landwehr stands, and he walks the Tennessee native down to hurt him with a right hand and then an uppercut. Landwehr tries to pitch another front kick, and Choi rings his bell with a painful uppercut. Choi drops down, absorbs a knee and stands up tall and bangs the top of his head off Landwehr’s chin. Choi marches forward fearlessly, landing punches on either side of the head while Landwehr is stuck keeping his guard up most of the time. Choi goes to the body, and Landwehr strikes back with a right hand. Choi knocks Landwehr’s head back like a Pez dispenser with a nasty uppercut, and Landwehr closes in to clinch and get his bearings. Landwehr scores a short strike on the inside, and he pushes out of the tie-up using a knee. Choi dings him with one last left, and the one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 2
Choi offers a glove touch when Landwehr rushes at him to begin the second stanza, and they trade hands early with Choi landing first, last and much faster. Choi hammers the front leg with a kick, throwing Landwehr off-balance, and he uses his jab to set up power strikes. Choi connects with a low kick, and Landwehr ties him up and leans against him on the cage for a time. Choi spins him about, takes an elbow and breaks off. Choi boxes him up, mixing up the straight punches to the head and body. When Landwehr comes at him, Choi chops down his front leg. Landwehr keeps moving after taking the kick, bopping the South Korean in the nose with a spinning back elbow. Choi allows him to complete his rotation so he can hurl “The Train” to the floor like side of beef. Choi steps into full mount with ease, and he thinks about gripping a choke and lets it go to hit Landwehr in the back of the head. Landwehr scrambles to escape the precarious position, but he ends up getting flattened out on his stomach while Choi smacks him upside the head. Landwehr does not settle for staying flat for long, and Choi stretches him out but is not attempting much else in the way of submissions. Choi gets both hooks in and does not want to set up the body triangle so he can back out of this, and he lets Landwehr follow him so he can suddenly tackle the former M-1 champ down to the canvas. Choi lands in half guard and decides against taking advantage of the position, instead bailing on it and standing up. Landwehr follows immediately and pushes Choi to the fencing, but the South Korean is quick to turn him about. Two clubbing strikes from Landwehr land right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 3
The fighters clap hands, and Landwehr throws caution to the wind immediately. Landwehr hurls huge punches, with haymakers that land flush on the side of Choi’s dome. Choi laughs them off and swings back just as hard, but faster. Landwehr backs himself up to the fence in hopes of goading Choi towards him, but he has to settle for following Choi. As Landwehr gets as reckless as can be, Choi hits an easy takedown and advances immediately to side control. Choi wraps up Landwehr’s left arm between his legs to lock down a crucifix, and he hammers down a few elbows before Landwehr sits up. Choi uses his body weight to keep Landwehr stuck in the bad place, and he pounds on Landwehr’s face with fists when elbows are not the right strike. Choi draws further blood as he bludgeons “The Train,” with Landwehr’s bucks and twists thwarted each and every turn. Choi slashes down with methodical elbows, and Tognoni asks for Landwehr to improve his position. Choi punches Landwehr several times in the mouth, and Landwehr groans and grunts. With Tognoni watching on closely, Choi hammers the nail with a final barrage of elbows. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Landwehr is disappointed but not about to cry foul after getting beaten up for the better part of three rounds. Winner of two in a row, “The Korean Superboy” announces himself as a renewed force in the talent-rich featherweight division.

The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Nate Landwehr R3 3:21 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Nate Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and takedowns against Choi's poor takedown defense. He expects Landwehr to shoot a million takedowns and grind out a win. However, he notes Landwehr is chinny and 36, and Choi has power, so he will probably avoid betting on this fight due to red flags.

Probably avoid betting, lots of red flags
"Nate lare is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr, believing his aggressive pressure will overwhelm Choi. He notes Choi's finesse style and vulnerability to pressure fighters. He expects a violent fight and suggests it won't go to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"Nate the train Landwehr, the official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr based on confidence and momentum. He notes that Choi went eight years without a win and looked mentally fragile, while Landwehr is a dog who thrives on chaos. Connor believes Landwehr will force a war and that Choi's defense and confidence are not up to the task.

Landwehr opened at -164, currently -133; Choi opened at +128, currently +119. Connor thinks the odds should not be getting closer and favors Landwehr.
"Nate Landwehr is who Michael Chandler thinks he is. He's really about that shit."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, citing that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may be compromised after getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. He notes Landwehr is solid everywhere, especially on the feet, and has underrated submission skills with two of his last four wins by submission. He likes the number on Landwehr and sees him as a good candidate for a club-and-sub.

"I kick off the main card give me the train Nate ler D Choy best days are behind him even though he he did get a win probably since since I said that landar getting the job done um pretty …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dooho Choi

Daniel picks Choi to upset Landwehr, citing Choi's improved cardio and technique since his return. He believes Choi's clean boxing and experience in wars will overcome Landwehr's attrition style. He predicts a knockout, noting Landwehr gets hurt in every fight.

by KO
"I actually think Duho is going to come out here and knock out Nate Lander and shock a lot of people."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, emphasizing that people sleep on Landwehr's submission skills, noting his nice darce chokes and front headlock game. He also points out that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may not be as good as it used to be, as evidenced by getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. Fox believes Choi is a one-dimensional power puncher without a steel chin, so he takes Landwehr all day.

"yeah I think people sleep on his submission skills too uh like two out of his last four wins are by submission um you know he's got nice darus chokes front headlock kind of stuff he's a he's a good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Lucrative James picks Nate Landwehr to win inside the distance, citing his grappling upside, cardio advantage, and higher level of competition. He acknowledges the volatility due to both fighters being hittable, but believes Landwehr's experience and durability will prevail. He suggests looking at props like TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3.

wins inside the distance, wins by TKO, wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think Nate land will will win in round two or round three... Nate to win via TKO maybe Nate to win inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dooho Choi

Choi has the technical striking advantage and confidence from knocking out Bill Algeo earlier this year. He will counter Landwehr off his back foot and find a big shot within one and a half rounds to get a knockout victory.

knockout within 1.5 rounds
"I do have to lean with the technical striking advantages of Troy and seeing the confidence that he probably gained from knocking out Bill alio earlier this year he probably is going to be able to counter lanor off his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul picks Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents. He notes Choi's accuracy but thinks Landwehr's chaos will be too much. He expects a fun fight and believes Landwehr wins more often than not.

"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to get done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The MMA Guru picks Nate Landwehr, believing pressure breaks Dooho Choi. He notes Choi can be pressured and broken, and while Choi could catch Landwehr early, Landwehr's recovery is good. He expects Landwehr to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds, leading to a TKO win or a D'Arce choke.

Nate Landwehr wins by TKO or submission (D'Arce choke)
"I'm gonna go with Nate lambwe pressure breaks dooho choy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane agrees, citing Landwehr's self-belief and Choi's lack of confidence. He notes that Choi's defense has always been poor and that Landwehr will bring the chaos that Choi struggles with. Zane also points out that Choi's win over Bill Algeo was against a fading opponent, while Landwehr is a proven tough out.

"Nate Landwehr all day."
WIN vs Jamall Emmers
KO (punches) R1 4:43 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.

"I'm still picking emers I'm staring at the odds though he's a two to one favorite and I just haven't made peace with that just yet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.

"give me Jamal emers to kick it off with a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.

"gotta go with Jamal emers this time"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.

"I think Emmer's way more clean with his boxing technique faster with the hands but I could just see Nate making this a really hard fight for Jamal"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.

"I'm still going to pick him to win I think it's going to be tough for him to put LW away I'm going to take emeris Em by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.

"I want the plus 180 dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I reckon Jamal emers has gone knock him out in the first my honest on this fight Jamal emers knocks him out in the first"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 88 of 184 47% 88 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Nate Landwehr 0 74 of 195 37% 74 of 195 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 12 of 44 27% 12 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Ige 1 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dan Ige 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 32 of 82 39% 32 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 88 of 184 47% 61 of 143 19 of 31 8 of 10 78 of 169 6 of 8 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 74 of 195 37% 54 of 161 13 of 24 7 of 10 55 of 168 18 of 24 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 14 of 45 31% 8 of 34 4 of 7 2 of 4 14 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 12 of 44 27% 9 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 4 9 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 41 of 78 52% 28 of 59 10 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 68 3 of 3 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 30 of 69 43% 20 of 57 7 of 8 3 of 4 23 of 59 6 of 7 1 of 3
3 Dan Ige 33 of 61 54% 25 of 50 5 of 8 3 of 3 30 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 32 of 82 39% 25 of 71 5 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 69 9 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.

"my pick is going to be Danny gay but I'm gonna keep him out of parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.

"I'm gonna say Nate landwer edges out a very very close competitive decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.

Dan Ige by knockout +205; round 2 guess
"I took Dan ige by knockout plus 205 which I believe is still out there on the market right now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.

Ige opened at -224, currently -245; Landwehr opened at +195, currently +213.
"You got to take Danny."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.

"I see an igeko here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.

"I think ige just a level above in MMA man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.

Ige wins by KO (round 2)
"I think he eventually finds a knockout in this fight give me Dan ige by knockout round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.

"I feel like ige is just way too fast stay to the outside better cardio Clips him at some point puts him over"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.

prediction of late first round KO
"I am gonna have to go with Danny gay here over Nate lambware"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.

"I think he's just going to have a lot of opportunities in the middle of, of Nick land where trying to have a very fun, wild, cool brawl."
WIN vs Austin Lingo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 64 of 153 41% 68 of 160 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 48 of 146 32% 50 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Lingo 0 30 of 91 32% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 75 40% 34 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 18 of 55 32% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 64 of 153 41% 36 of 104 9 of 25 19 of 24 61 of 148 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 48 of 146 32% 28 of 116 17 of 26 3 of 4 48 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 34 of 78 43% 20 of 52 2 of 9 12 of 17 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Lingo 30 of 91 32% 19 of 75 8 of 12 3 of 4 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 30 of 75 40% 16 of 52 7 of 16 7 of 7 27 of 70 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 18 of 55 32% 9 of 41 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.

"Nate's gonna be the pick but not touching it don't like these odds Austin lingo is much much better than what these odds are saying."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.

Landwehr by submission in round 3
"I'll say Nate land where third round sub but yeah this fight's going to be very very fun"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.

Landwehr wins inside distance; over 2.5 rounds
"I like betting him because I know that he's either going to win me some money or he's going to die trying"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.

Mentions odds: Lingo opened +250, currently +184; Landwehr opened -300, currently -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"I'm still going to pick him. He's a better athlete. He's super duper tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.

May bet on Austin Lingo as underdog (conditional)
"Nate's a better fighter but he's shown I'm willing to not be the better fighter you know and lose a fight to be entertaining."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Austin Lingo

The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.

fight doesn't go to decision, Austin Lingo by knockout
"I think that lingo's boxing style is going to be perfect for him here to stay safe when he crashes the pocket against landwear"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.

"I'm going with Nate Landwehr... I think he will break Austin lingo as the fight goes on especially in the clinch"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.

Mentions odds: Lingo +184, Landwehr -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"Landwehr is much more likely to just meet lingo head on with pressure for pressure and being the better athlete. I think that's much more likely to allow him to push lingo to the cage and slow him down."
WIN vs David Onama
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 91 of 185 49% 133 of 253 3 of 4 75% 2 1 5:05
David Onama 1 71 of 174 40% 79 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 1 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
David Onama 1 46 of 91 50% 53 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 76 56% 65 of 116 3 of 3 100% 2 0 3:08
David Onama 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:20
3 Nate Landwehr 0 27 of 57 47% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
David Onama 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 91 of 185 49% 73 of 154 10 of 18 8 of 13 52 of 120 22 of 35 17 of 30
David Onama 71 of 174 40% 62 of 158 8 of 15 1 of 1 50 of 139 1 of 3 20 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 4 of 6 4 of 8 14 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 3
David Onama 46 of 91 50% 39 of 80 6 of 10 1 of 1 29 of 64 1 of 3 16 of 24
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 76 56% 35 of 66 4 of 6 4 of 4 22 of 37 7 of 12 14 of 27
David Onama 8 of 21 38% 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Nate Landwehr 27 of 57 47% 25 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 40 11 of 17 0 of 0
David Onama 17 of 62 27% 16 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 57 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
David Onama

Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.

Will use in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"i've got to go with onama here because of his power and it's it's just so next level and i think he's going to be more technical as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.

first round knockout
"i like david and i'm gonna win this fight should be very exciting for as long as it lasts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.

"i think that at some point he's going to clip nate landwear that's going to be pushing forward so nate landwear plus money always live underdog i just think durability is going to catch him in the ass here and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.

"I'm willing to take a shot on these plus 265 odds and see what happens."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Nate Landwehr

The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.

"i think it's gonna be nate the train i think nathan terrain pulls it off at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.

Onama by TKO +175
"onama by tko plus 175. i see out there don't mind that to be perfectly honest"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.

first round TKO
"i'm going to be going with david onama by tko in the first"
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 71 of 130 54% 103 of 163 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:46
Ľudovít Klein 0 42 of 85 49% 44 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 20 of 41 48% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Nate Landwehr 0 37 of 61 60% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
3 Nate Landwehr 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 71 of 130 54% 41 of 85 18 of 30 12 of 15 45 of 93 26 of 37 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 42 of 85 49% 20 of 55 18 of 25 4 of 5 39 of 80 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 20 of 41 48% 5 of 20 10 of 15 5 of 6 14 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 19 of 37 51% 6 of 20 11 of 14 2 of 3 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 37 of 61 60% 30 of 49 5 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 33 20 of 28 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 13 of 31 41% 9 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Nate Landwehr 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 3 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 10 of 17 58% 5 of 11 4 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo is confident Klein wins, likely by stoppage. He praises Klein's phenomenal striking, footwork, and smooth movement, which will allow him to dance around Landwehr's wild pressure. Landwehr is feast-or-famine and puts himself in harm's way. Klein also showed new wrestling elements in his last fight. Angelo thinks Klein's footwork and clean striking will lead to a finish, though he acknowledges Landwehr's chaos could cause an upset.

Klein wins by stoppage, less less on monkey knife fight
"I think ludovic klein is going to get a stoppage here at some point and it's literally going to be his footwork and just how smooth his movements are to make that happen"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady is confident Klein wins by knockout, likely a head kick, given Landwehr's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He notes Klein has multiple head kick KOs on his record and Landwehr is hittable and reckless. He sees no clear path to victory for Landwehr.

by KO (head kick)
"i like klein here i like him quite a bit i like him to win um by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr as a dog, acknowledging his durability issues but believing his pressure and cardio will overwhelm Klein if he survives the first round. He notes that Klein faded in his last fight against Trizano and that Landwehr's all-action style and track record of pushing a pace make him live as an underdog. He plans to use it as a PRP shot at the bottom of parlays.

"i'm gonna take nate landry for the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel picks Klein to win early, citing his dangerous high kick and first-round explosiveness. He worries about Klein's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as seen in the Mike Trizano fight. Landwehr gets hit a lot (8 strikes per minute), which is a recipe for disaster against a sharp striker like Klein. However, if Klein doesn't finish early, Landwehr's toughness and deep-water experience could make it interesting.

If Klein doesn't finish early, live bet Landwehr
"i think that ludovic klein probably comes out here and catches him early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Klein is a precise, powerful striker who will land a fight-ending shot on Landwehr, whose chin is deteriorating. Landwehr has poor striking defense and has been knocked out recently. Klein by KO is the most likely outcome, likely in the first two rounds.

Klein by KO -105, Klein in round 1, under 2.5 rounds -145
"i do think he flatlines land where at a certain point in this fight so my thing is going to be uh klein i've already parlayed him he's already part of my lock that i play i think he goes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but does not state a definitive choice.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by first-round KO, citing Landwehr's recent chin issues and tendency to get knocked down by any shot. He notes Klein's head-kick KOs and fast starts, predicting a head kick to combination finish. He acknowledges Landwehr's past success but attributes recent losses to a deteriorating chin.

first round ko, head kick to combination punch finish
"i'm gonna go with ludovic klein by first round ko here over nate lambwear"
Darren Elkins - Fight History
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 39 of 88 44% 102 of 170 3 of 12 25% 0 1 6:33
Daniel Pineda 0 31 of 53 58% 61 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 3 of 8 37% 23 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:07
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:07
2 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 47 40% 39 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:24
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 24 50% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Darren Elkins 0 17 of 33 51% 40 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:02
Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 39 of 88 44% 30 of 78 9 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 70 3 of 7 8 of 11
Daniel Pineda 31 of 53 58% 21 of 38 7 of 10 3 of 5 17 of 37 1 of 1 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 13 of 15 86% 12 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Darren Elkins 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 7 of 10
Daniel Pineda 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 17 of 33 51% 12 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

bet on Elkins at +102
"Darren Elkins is going to be the pick and I have a bet on him at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

third round knockout
"I'm going Darren Elkin One Last Ride uh to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

"I am inclined to pick a 40 year old Darren Elkins with the full knowledge that he may get knocked out immediately"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"as long as Elkin durability holds up early he should be able to break pan down and find a finish in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

TKO or submission, calf kicks, guillotine
"I'm going to go with Daniel panada getting this one done by TKO or submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Elkins opened +111, now +100; Pineda opened -123, now -112; Zane says there's no reason Pineda should be a favorite
"I'm taking Elkins can't feel good about it, but I also don't feel like I can really pick Panetta"
WIN vs T.J. Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 57 of 193 29% 67 of 203 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Darren Elkins 0 110 of 222 49% 154 of 276 2 of 7 28% 0 1 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 57 19% 14 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Darren Elkins 0 30 of 64 46% 35 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 15 of 47 31% 22 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Darren Elkins 0 44 of 68 64% 74 of 106 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:29
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 31 of 89 34% 31 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Elkins 0 36 of 90 40% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 57 of 193 29% 47 of 176 9 of 15 1 of 2 49 of 177 8 of 16 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 110 of 222 49% 80 of 188 18 of 22 12 of 12 66 of 159 14 of 20 30 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 11 of 57 19% 9 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 30 of 64 46% 16 of 47 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 51 4 of 5 5 of 8
2 Jonathan Pearce 15 of 47 31% 14 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 37 5 of 10 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 44 of 68 64% 37 of 61 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 8 of 10 23 of 31
3 Jonathan Pearce 31 of 89 34% 24 of 82 6 of 6 1 of 1 29 of 85 2 of 4 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 36 of 90 40% 27 of 80 4 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 75 of 151 49% 165 of 259 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:52
Tristan Connelly 0 66 of 117 56% 106 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:40
Tristan Connelly 0 7 of 18 38% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:07
Tristan Connelly 0 34 of 50 68% 37 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 70 of 105 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Tristan Connelly 0 25 of 49 51% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 75 of 151 49% 66 of 141 9 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 107 29 of 34 8 of 10
Tristan Connelly 66 of 117 56% 48 of 96 9 of 12 9 of 9 42 of 87 21 of 27 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 19 of 39 48% 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 7 of 9
Tristan Connelly 7 of 18 38% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 27 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 42 11 of 13 1 of 1
Tristan Connelly 34 of 50 68% 22 of 38 5 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 38 9 of 10 2 of 2
3 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 22 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 37 16 of 19 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 33 11 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

"i do like tristan connolly to get it done but the reality is darren elkins is a guy that you can never count out of a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

decision
"i'm going to take uh darren elkins to win i think he's going to mix and take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

"i'm gonna back another underdog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

"i'll go with elkins just because if you give me the best version of both guys i do think elkins grinds that out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Connelly by decision +300, fight goes to decision -185
"i think connolly's live he's a junkyard dog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

"i think this is another live dog that we're looking at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Connelly by decision or late finish; Connelly is an underdog
"i'm taking tristan connolly over darren elkins here... i'm gonna go with tristan connolly grinding out a decision and ending up winning the last two rounds or maybe getting a late rounds finish"
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
TKO (punches) R2 3:48 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 20 of 30 66% 137 of 154 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:01
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 35 54% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 3 2 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 4 of 7 57% 43 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:44
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 33 57% 36 of 53 1 of 1 100% 3 2 3:17
2 Darren Elkins 0 16 of 23 69% 94 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:17
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 23
Darrick Minner 19 of 35 54% 14 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 13 4 of 7 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darrick Minner 19 of 33 57% 14 of 25 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 12 4 of 7 10 of 14
2 Darren Elkins 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 22
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:22 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 32 of 72 44% 120 of 168 7 of 21 33% 1 0 7:34
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 36 of 78 46% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 12 of 21 57% 55 of 69 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:06
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 33 39% 41 of 64 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:40
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 18 of 40 45% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 18 38% 24 of 35 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:48
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 32 of 72 44% 21 of 58 10 of 13 1 of 1 18 of 55 12 of 15 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 36 of 78 46% 28 of 69 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 69 3 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 12 of 21 57% 8 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 8 of 9 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 18 of 40 45% 14 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 3
3 Darren Elkins 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to take darren elkins and I know he's towards the end of his career... but the path to victory is written all over the wall here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.

decision
"i'm gonna go with elkins to win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.

"I like elgin's here i don't mind him at the minus 200 range... possible parley piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.

"i'm definitely gonna go with darren elkins against eduardo gegori"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by decision, citing Elkins' clear advantage in wrestling and grappling on the ground. He notes that Landwehr is a good striker and could win on the feet, and that Elkins has taken a lot of damage throughout his career and may be declining. He expects Elkins to use his wrestling to control the fight and win a close decision.

decision, close decision
"I'm gonna go with Elkins here I think he has a clear advantage on the ground just a claymore down... I think it's gonna be a decision probably a close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr to get his first UFC win. He believes father time has caught up with Elkins, whose durability is fading. He notes that Landwehr is younger, hungrier, and has good scrambling ability. He thinks Landwehr will put it on Elkins and knock him out.

knockout
"I think he knocks Terry Nutkins out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host picks Nate Landwehr, believing he will piece up the aging Darren Elkins. He thinks Landwehr will get a TKO finish in the second round, as Elkins is too old and past his prime. He notes Landwehr's bounce-back potential after his loss to Herbert Burns.

Nate Landwehr by TKO in the second round
"Nate land where it's gonna go out there and get the job done and probably actually get to finish in the second round Nate land where by TKO in the second round"