UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marlon Moraes
3.37 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.53 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.87 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - José Aldo
3.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.81 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
92.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Marlon Moraes - Fight History
LOSS vs Song Yadong
KO (punches) R1 2:06 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 1 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 1 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 14 of 35 40% 10 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 14 of 35 40% 10 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Moraes vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
As part of a
significant record correction
across several UFC fighters coming from China, the pro record of Song (18-6-1, 1 NC; 7-1-1 UFC) will likely display differently than what it shows on the broadcast – but the Sherdog W/L tally is accurate after a deep dive by the underappreciated Fight Finder team. While the 24-year-old Song is on his way up, former title challenger Moraes (23-9-1, 5-5 UFC) has struggled as of late, albeit against only top-flight competition. During the introductions, referee Keith Peterson clears the building of nonsense. The 135ers touch gloves for their co-main assignment, and Song advances quickly to throw hands. Moraes answers with a few of his own, and he backs off to circle and pulls back on a kick that he decides not to throw. Moraes swipes forward with a left hand, and Song cracks him with a right hand behind the ear that nearly brings Moraes to his knees. The Brazilian recovers, but he is fighting off his back foot, still a bit stung, and Song gives chase. Song just misses with a huge uppercut, and Moraes counters and slides to the side and out. Both men throw heavy, fast combinations at one another, and Moraes absorbs a leg kick as he backs off. When Moraes swings a left hand, Song is there to put three in his face, and Moraes shakes his head and retreats. Exploding into action, “Magic” attacks with a swarm of punches that come up short of the mark.
Song strides forward, brimming with confidence, and unleashes a right hand that lands behind the ear, a left over the top and an uppercut that sends the former title challenger crashing to the canvas. Moraes does not know where he is as the back of his head bounces off the floor, and Song points down at the doomed fighter instead of jumping on top to demolish him with unnecessary ground-and-pound.
The lights may be on, but no one’s home for Moraes, as Peterson walks over and makes sure that Song won’t hammer the nail. Song sprints around the cage to celebrate his massive victory, having punched his ticket to huge opportunities going forward.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Marlon Moraes R1 2:06 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo hesitantly picks Song Yadong, primarily due to youth. He notes that Marlon Moraes is a savage striker with heavy leg kicks but has been figured out when pressured. He acknowledges that both fighters have similar recent records against top competition. His heart wants Moraes but his head says Yadong. He plans to find a way to bet on Moraes and may change his mind.

May bet on Marlon Moraes separately
"i need to go with yadong here i will find a way to bet on marlon marias i will be rooting for him and honestly i may change my mind on this pick later"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Moraes' severe cardio issues (only one round of gas) and declining durability (knocked out in his last four losses). He notes Yadong is young (24), improving, and showed a good chin. He expects Yadong to survive the first round and then finish Moraes in the second. He acknowledges Moraes is live in the first round but thinks Yadong's path is clear.

second round knockout
"i'm going to take song to win second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody picks Song Yadong but is hesitant due to Moraes' early danger. He notes Song's durability and youth, while Moraes has a compromised chin and gasses. He suggests the inside the distance prop for Song, as Moraes is likely to fade.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i think song yodang wins but they're really paying the price of a mission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong to win, highlighting Yadong's developing all-around game, granite chin, and ability to scramble back to his feet. He notes that Marlon Moraes has cardio and durability concerns, having been knocked out in four of his last five. Levi believes that when Yadong lands his shots, Moraes won't react well, leading to a knockout. He also mentions that he took Yadong straight in the spot.

took sonia dong straight in the spot
"give me songy dong to come out here and knock out marlon morish and i also took sonia dong straight in the spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Song Yadong is a durable, high-volume striker with good takedown defense, as shown against Casey Kenney. He trusts his chin and cardio, and is expected to march down Moraes after an early competitive round. Moraes has cardio issues and a questionable chin, and his move to Tiger Muay Thai may not fix his gas tank. Song is predicted to win by KO in round 3.

KO in round 3 predicted.
"I think Song will take that shit on the chin. I think he'll be able to endure it and I think he'll be able to start marching down Marlon the longer that this fight goes."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Paul is confident in Song Yadong, citing his chin, youth, and killer instinct. He notes Moraes' durability issues and tendency to fade. He suggests the inside the distance prop as a better bet than the moneyline.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i would say that yadong's in the same position he's the most legitimate chinese fighter on the roster"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong over Marlon Moraes, emphasizing that Moraes' chin is shattered after multiple KOs and a brutal beating from Merab Dvalishvili. He trusts Yadong's chin more and believes Yadong will commit with effective technique while Moraes will be hesitant. He predicts a brutal first-round KO, similar to Yadong's finish of Alejandro Perez, and sees this as a coming-out party for Yadong. He notes Yadong's youth and experience, stating he is not a green prospect.

first round KO
"i'm going to go with song yodong over malamari's first round ko brutal fashion end of marisa's career start of song yudong's insurgents towards the top of the bantamweight division"
TKO (punches) R2 4:25 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 1 29 of 44 65% 34 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Marlon Moraes 0 69 of 109 63% 246 of 307 4 of 4 100% 0 0 6:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 1 29 of 44 65% 34 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Marlon Moraes 0 31 of 59 52% 104 of 141 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Marlon Moraes 0 38 of 50 76% 142 of 166 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 29 of 44 65% 23 of 36 0 of 0 6 of 8 21 of 35 1 of 2 7 of 7
Marlon Moraes 69 of 109 63% 63 of 101 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 35 0 of 0 57 of 74
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 29 of 44 65% 23 of 36 0 of 0 6 of 8 21 of 35 1 of 2 7 of 7
Marlon Moraes 31 of 59 52% 30 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 31 0 of 0 20 of 28
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 38 of 50 76% 33 of 45 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 37 of 46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Dvalishvili, citing his relentless chain wrestling, great conditioning, and ability to pressure Moraes. He notes that Moraes struggles when backed up and needs to plant his feet to generate power. Angelo believes Dvalishvili's wrestling will be too much, similar to how Rob Font beat Moraes.

Angelo likes Dvalishvili at $8,900 in DraftKings and says the moneyline is probably safe. He hates the strike line and has no pick for it.
"I love morav in this uh in this matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He notes that Moraes is dangerous in the first round but has a poor gas tank, while Dvalishvili pushes a high pace and has many decision wins. He believes Dvalishvili will survive the first round, take over, and drown Moraes with pressure.

"i think marab does end up with a decision win there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody picks Dvalishvili by decision, citing his endless gas tank, pressure, and grinding style. He notes Moraes' recent knockout losses and questionable chin, but respects his early power. He thinks Dvalishvili will wear him down and win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Dvalishvili round 3 (+1200)
"i think i'm going to go with defashvili by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing Marlon Moraes' decline since the Henry Cejudo fight. He notes Moraes' chin issues and tendency to fade after the first round. Levi believes Dvalishvili's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Moraes, who has been finished in recent fights. He also mentions that Moraes needs an early finish to win, but Dvalishvili's cardio is a major advantage.

"if marab starts to get those takedowns on him starts to get this into the seven minute mark you're going to see marlo and mariah huffing and puffing"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Jacob picks Dvalishvili, agreeing that Moraes' game plan won't stop Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling. He expects a TKO finish. Jacob is surprised Dvalishvili is such a big favorite but thinks it's justified.

Jacob expects a TKO finish from Dvalishvili. He has no opinion on the strike line.
"it's morab all the way in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)

The host leans towards Nasrat Haqparast by first-round knockout. He believes Hooker is damaged goods from his recent wars and that Haqparast's power could find his chin. He notes that Hooker is more skilled but Haqparast is explosive and can close distance. He is concerned about out-of-cage issues for both fighters but thinks it could increase the violence. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Haqparast by KO at +310; under 2.5 rounds at +110
"i do lean nazra hackers pressed as the side year especially around plus 125 uh but even if you want to get a little bit greek you're taking nazra by ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Dvalishvili but is hesitant due to Moraes' early power. He thinks Moraes will look good early and prefers a live betting approach. He expects Dvalishvili to win via late finish or decision, but wants to see if he survives the first round.

under 2.5 rounds (+160), live betting opportunity
"i feel like essentially what's happening here is this fight just screams much better live betting opportunity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Marlon Moraes, citing Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes that Moraes has chin issues and poor cardio, which will be exposed in a high-scramble grappling match. He expects Dvalishvili to take Moraes down repeatedly, eventually securing an arm triangle submission in the third round. He acknowledges Moraes' guillotine threat but believes Dvalishvili's pace will be too much.

arm triangle submission in the third round
"i'm going to be picking marab developmentally to go out there get the job done and just stick to mala morris like glue and i'm going to say he gets it done by arm triangle submission in the third round"
LOSS vs Rob Font
TKO (punches) R1 3:47 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 0 9 of 12 75% 12 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:31
Marlon Moraes 1 30 of 37 81% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 0 9 of 12 75% 12 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:31
Marlon Moraes 1 30 of 37 81% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 9 of 12 75% 8 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
Marlon Moraes 30 of 37 81% 27 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 18 1 of 1 16 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 9 of 12 75% 8 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
Marlon Moraes 30 of 37 81% 27 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 18 1 of 1 16 of 18
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Moraes

Angelo picks Marlon Moraes as a guaranteed win, predicting a first or second round finish. He considers it an easy matchup without further elaboration.

first or second round finish
"marlon marias very easy guaranteed win he's going to win that maybe in the first or second"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font over Marlon Moraes, emphasizing Font's reach advantage (5 inches), higher volume, and durability (never knocked out or knocked down). He notes Moraes' recent skid and potential chin issues, having been knocked out twice. Brady predicts a decision win for Font, though he acknowledges concern about Moraes' leg kicks.

"i'm going to take rob font to win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

The host picks Font but is hesitant, noting Font has never faced this level of competition and Moraes has fight-ending power. He believes Font's jab and volume can outwork Moraes over three rounds, especially if Moraes fades. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Font even at plus money.

"i'll take rob fawn to win this fight via decision but uh even though he's an underdog i just don't feel the need to really pull the trigger on him here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Moraes

The Guru picks Marlon Moraes but is worried about his recent KO loss. He believes Moraes will rebound and outpoint Rob Font, who he criticizes for being inactive and not pushing a pace. He notes Font's close fight with Ricky Simon and lack of quick finishes. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Moraes.

"i'm going to go with marlo maria's but i'm really worried about it because rob von is a dangerous one here... i think marlon morris is going to get the job done i don't think he gets the tko finish …"
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Marlon Moraes 1 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Marlon Moraes 0 30 of 66 45% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 1 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 50 28% 10 of 39 1 of 5 3 of 6 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 38 of 88 43% 16 of 63 9 of 10 13 of 15 36 of 84 0 of 0 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 12 of 45 26% 10 of 36 0 of 4 2 of 5 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 30 of 66 45% 11 of 45 8 of 9 11 of 12 30 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 8 of 22 36% 5 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Sandhagen due to his volume striking (7 significant strikes per minute vs Moraes' 3.5), height and reach advantage, and elite cardio. He expects Sandhagen to survive Moraes' early storm, tire him out, and get a late finish. He notes Moraes' cardio issues and that Sandhagen can switch stances to defend kicks.

Sandhagen by fourth or fifth round knockout; Moraes inside distance or round 1-2 props; waiting for line to get closer to -115/-120
"i'm gonna go with san hagen here to get a fourth or fifth round knockout i just think he's going to survive the early storm of mariah's he's going to tire out mariah's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Moraes

Daniel believes Marlon Moraes is being disrespected by the betting line and public opinion. He argues that Moraes has fought higher-level competition, including a win over Jose Aldo, and that his power and calf kicks will be decisive. He notes that Sandhagen has been dropped early in fights and questions his ability to weather Moraes' early storm. Daniel also points out that Moraes has more decision wins and has been to the championship rounds, countering the narrative that he fades late.

Daniel predicts Moraes wins by knockout, specifically a head kick or fight-ending blow. He mentions that Moraes is the hardest hitter in the division and that Sandhagen may struggle with the calf kicks.
"I feel like magic marlon marice at some point clipping corey san hagen with you know or breaking him down with the calf kicks... I'm going magic marlin via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen's footwork and output are superior; he uses range well with kicks and jabs, and has better cardio for a five-round fight. Moraes tends to fade late and struggles when backing up. Sandhagen will likely finish in the third or fourth round via TKO.

fight doesn't go to decision at -195; Sandhagen inside distance at +170
"i like cory here i think he gets it done probably in the fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to stylistic advantages and Moraes' cardio issues in five-round fights. He notes Sandhagen's reach, height, stance-switching, and front kicks to counter Moraes' leg kicks. He predicts Sandhagen will survive early rounds and take over, finishing via ground-and-pound TKO in the fourth round. He emphasizes that Moraes has not fixed his cardio weakness despite repeated exposure.

TKO finish via ground and pound in the fourth round
"i'm gonna go with corey sandhagen winning himself a tko finish via ground and pound in the fourth round"
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Moraes 0 59 of 137 43% 59 of 137 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
José Aldo 0 58 of 147 39% 63 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Moraes 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
José Aldo 0 15 of 40 37% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Moraes 0 21 of 54 38% 21 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 28 of 56 50% 28 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Moraes 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 15 of 51 29% 15 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Moraes 59 of 137 43% 48 of 124 7 of 9 4 of 4 58 of 136 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 58 of 147 39% 39 of 109 16 of 34 3 of 4 57 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Moraes 18 of 42 42% 13 of 36 3 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 15 of 40 37% 9 of 30 4 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Moraes 21 of 54 38% 18 of 51 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 28 of 56 50% 20 of 41 7 of 14 1 of 1 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Moraes 20 of 41 48% 17 of 37 2 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 15 of 51 29% 10 of 38 5 of 12 0 of 1 14 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Henry Cejudo
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 90 of 171 52% 99 of 182 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 57 of 119 47% 59 of 121 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 38 of 84 45% 41 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 47 of 65 72% 53 of 73 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 90 of 171 52% 73 of 150 13 of 16 4 of 5 45 of 118 19 of 23 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 57 of 119 47% 35 of 89 7 of 8 15 of 22 54 of 116 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 5 of 22 22% 3 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 16 of 37 43% 4 of 20 3 of 3 9 of 14 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 38 of 84 45% 31 of 75 5 of 7 2 of 2 27 of 70 11 of 14 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 31 of 59 52% 24 of 50 1 of 2 6 of 7 30 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 47 of 65 72% 39 of 56 8 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 26 8 of 9 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 10 of 23 43% 7 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
WIN vs Jimmie Rivera
KO (head kick and punches) R1 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Moraes 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Moraes 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Moraes 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Moraes 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 6
José Aldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 149 of 305 48% 193 of 350 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Rob Font 2 86 of 161 53% 96 of 172 0 of 1 0% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 36 of 90 40% 37 of 91 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:50
Rob Font 1 26 of 41 63% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 José Aldo 0 48 of 89 53% 48 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 37 of 64 57% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
4 José Aldo 0 10 of 20 50% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 10 of 12 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:35
5 José Aldo 0 18 of 42 42% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Rob Font 0 15 of 28 53% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 149 of 305 48% 94 of 238 38 of 48 17 of 19 135 of 289 6 of 8 8 of 8
Rob Font 86 of 161 53% 57 of 129 19 of 20 10 of 12 75 of 146 2 of 3 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 36 of 90 40% 21 of 72 12 of 14 3 of 4 36 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 41 63% 19 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 23 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 José Aldo 48 of 89 53% 23 of 60 13 of 17 12 of 12 48 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 23 of 51 45% 15 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 37 of 64 57% 29 of 55 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 12 of 29 41% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1
4 José Aldo 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Rob Font 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
5 José Aldo 18 of 42 42% 12 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 1 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

"i need to go with font here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

by decision; if anything, dog or pass for Jose Aldo at plus money
"i'll take rob font by decision but not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

"as of right now i think i'm gonna go slight edge towards the underdog jose aldo we'll see if anything changes but this is dog city and uh there's maybe an underdog in the main event here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

"I think jose can sneak through three of these rounds come out here win this decision and show he's still relevant"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

"i'm going with jose uh i don't love the play uh but i just think he's so savvy and such a veteran"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Font by decision +195
"i am picking fond to win i think if you are playing font i think fought via decision is probably the best way to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

"i think if it comes down to a five rounds if aldo doesn't land like a liver shot something something really damaging uh doesn't really really attack those leg kicks early on i think he just gets out volume over …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo decision i'll say 4847 decision for jose aldo"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 44 of 70 62% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:57
Marlon Vera 0 46 of 82 56% 92 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 19 of 29 65% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 29 55% 29 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
2 José Aldo 0 24 of 39 61% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 28 of 50 56% 39 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
3 José Aldo 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:53
Marlon Vera 0 2 of 3 66% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 44 of 70 62% 17 of 38 21 of 26 6 of 6 36 of 62 8 of 8 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 46 of 82 56% 8 of 33 11 of 15 27 of 34 34 of 69 12 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 19 of 29 65% 7 of 15 8 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 29 55% 2 of 10 0 of 3 14 of 16 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 24 of 39 61% 9 of 22 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 32 7 of 7 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 28 of 50 56% 5 of 21 11 of 12 12 of 17 18 of 40 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.

"jose aldo you're going to choose him that's a guaranteed win i mean marlon vera got a fluke win against sugar shawn o'malley"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.

decision prop on Aldo, fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going to take jose aldo to win here by decision and um i think the decision props not a bad look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.

Aldo inside the distance via TKO
"i think he wipes the floor with marlon vera here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.

Mentions that if Dominick Cruz beats Casey Kenny, a fight between Aldo and Cruz could determine a title shot.
"i think aldo is going to win this fight in a competitive very fun fight of the night performance 29 28 to jose aldo"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R5 3:24 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 194 of 309 62% 258 of 376 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
José Aldo 0 83 of 157 52% 83 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 33 of 55 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
José Aldo 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Petr Yan 0 44 of 72 61% 56 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
José Aldo 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Petr Yan 1 62 of 68 91% 113 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:06
José Aldo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 194 of 309 62% 150 of 256 35 of 44 9 of 9 99 of 201 9 of 11 86 of 97
José Aldo 83 of 157 52% 38 of 97 28 of 39 17 of 21 81 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 33 of 55 60% 21 of 42 10 of 11 2 of 2 17 of 36 0 of 0 16 of 19
José Aldo 14 of 39 35% 10 of 28 1 of 6 3 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 16 of 42 38% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 24 of 41 58% 7 of 22 8 of 10 9 of 9 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 39 of 72 54% 27 of 56 10 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 68 4 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 29 of 49 59% 13 of 27 12 of 16 4 of 6 27 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 44 of 72 61% 32 of 58 9 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 52 5 of 7 11 of 13
José Aldo 15 of 27 55% 8 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 62 of 68 91% 59 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 59 of 65
José Aldo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the …"