Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski
Career Averages - Max Holloway
Alexander Volkanovski - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 98 of 160 | 61% | 112 of 178 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 70 of 158 | 44% | 74 of 162 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 21 of 24 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 98 of 160 | 61% | 72 of 118 | 3 of 6 | 23 of 36 | 88 of 149 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 70 of 158 | 44% | 33 of 98 | 17 of 33 | 20 of 27 | 66 of 152 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 12 of 28 | 42% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 30 | 63% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 34 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 35 | 60% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 17 of 38 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 44 | 56% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 22 of 48 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 21 of 24 | 87% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Diego Lopes | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.
Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.
Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.
Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.
Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.
James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.
Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.
Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.
Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 158 of 259 | 61% | 165 of 266 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 63 of 194 | 32% | 71 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Diego Lopes | 1 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 43 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 14 of 59 | 23% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 158 of 259 | 61% | 136 of 225 | 8 of 14 | 14 of 20 | 142 of 237 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 194 | 32% | 49 of 171 | 7 of 13 | 7 of 10 | 59 of 185 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 27 of 44 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 24 of 52 | 46% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 33 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 25 of 45 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 9 of 37 | 24% | 7 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 39 of 57 | 68% | 36 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 16 of 43 | 37% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 43 of 61 | 70% | 40 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Lopes | 14 of 59 | 23% | 9 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)
Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.
Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.
Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 35 of 77 | 45% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 47 of 107 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 11 of 22 | 15 of 17 | 44 of 102 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 77 | 45% | 17 of 53 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 26 of 52 | 50% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 15 of 38 | 39% | 4 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)
Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.
Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.
Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 66 of 97 | 68% | 149 of 198 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 57 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 49 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 55 of 75 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 66 of 97 | 68% | 48 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 23 | 25 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 46 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 40 of 80 | 50% | 13 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 15 | 73% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 18 of 25 | 72% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 19 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 21 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.
Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.
Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.
Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.
James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.
Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.
Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 199 of 372 | 53% | 204 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 127 of 301 | 42% | 161 of 335 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 38 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 37 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 48 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 199 of 372 | 53% | 152 of 316 | 19 of 24 | 28 of 32 | 175 of 340 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 127 of 301 | 42% | 64 of 213 | 42 of 59 | 21 of 29 | 109 of 283 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 28 of 70 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 24 of 56 | 42% | 11 of 31 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 78 | 47% | 29 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 26 of 63 | 41% | 16 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 44 of 70 | 62% | 37 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 58 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 31 of 63 | 49% | 13 of 41 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 80 | 62% | 37 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.
Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.
Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.
Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 138 of 213 | 64% | 152 of 228 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 48 of 125 | 38% | 51 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 54 | 68% | 40 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 35 of 54 | 64% | 43 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 57 of 93 | 61% | 60 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 138 of 213 | 64% | 102 of 171 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 29 | 116 of 185 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 16 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 48 of 125 | 38% | 31 of 103 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 11 | 44 of 121 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 54 | 68% | 25 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 54 | 64% | 27 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 43 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 10 of 31 | 32% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 57 of 93 | 61% | 44 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 44 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 14 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 21 of 50 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo confidently picks Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision. He cites Volkanovski's work ethic, pace, striking volume, and takedowns as too much for the Korean Zombie. He notes Zombie's durability and power but believes Volkanovski cruises. He calls it an easy parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by dominant decision, likely 50-45. He notes Volkanovski's volume striking, takedown defense, and chin are elite. The Korean Zombie looked washed against Ortega and his only path is a knockout, but Volkanovski has never been knocked out. Brady sees no path to victory for Zombie and expects Volkanovski to outwork him everywhere.
Cody picks Volkanovski to win, noting his complete MMA game, striking, wrestling, and ability to escape dangerous submissions. He is interested in the under 4.5 rounds because Volkanovski said he'd finish within three rounds and the Korean Zombie has been compromised before. Cody acknowledges the steep -760 price but still sees Volkanovski as a solid parlay piece.
Levi praises Volkanovski's elite feinting game, calf kicks, and ability to mix takedowns. He respects the Korean Zombie's toughness and exciting style, but believes Volk is the far superior fighter. He thinks Volk will use feints to set up takedowns and land big shots, possibly finishing the fight. He acknowledges the Korean Zombie has the best chance among underdogs but still picks Volk.
I think Volkanovski is the more complete fighter and will win, but he is hittable and Korean Zombie has power. I see Volkanovski dragging the fight to the ground to be safe and winning a decision. I would not parlay him at -800; the value is on Jung. I'll play Volkanovski by decision at -150.
Paul is confident in Volkanovski's moneyline, calling him championship material with no big red flags. He highlights Volkanovski's cardio, chin, wrestling, striking, and high ring IQ, noting he can change game plans like in the Holloway rematch. Paul also likes the under 4.5 rounds and fight doesn't go the distance, believing the Korean Zombie can't sustain the beating for 25 minutes. He picks Volkanovski by TKO inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski, predicting a fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Volkanovski to get dropped in the first but recover, then chew up the Korean Zombie's legs with calf kicks and body shots. He notes the Korean Zombie's tendency to lean forward and struggle with lateral movement, and cites Volkanovski's superior cardio and recovery.
Max Holloway - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 73 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 50 of 66 | 75% | 110 of 137 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 24 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 25 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 24 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 50 of 66 | 75% | 37 of 51 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.
Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.
Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.
Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.
Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.
Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Max Holloway. He emphasizes Holloway's body punching and back-foot countering as key, and notes that Oliveira struggles against fighters who can pressure him off the back foot, as seen in the Makhachev fight. Zane also mentions Holloway's excellent takedown defense, though he is curious to see it tested against Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 1 | 198 of 375 | 52% | 201 of 378 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 109 of 255 | 42% | 109 of 255 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 1 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 47 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 84 | 52% | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 198 of 375 | 52% | 103 of 253 | 64 of 80 | 31 of 42 | 182 of 351 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 109 of 255 | 42% | 94 of 235 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 102 of 243 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 26 of 64 | 40% | 9 of 39 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Dustin Poirier | 16 of 32 | 50% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 44 of 67 | 65% | 31 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 43 | 58% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 61 | 62% | 18 of 36 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 44 of 84 | 52% | 23 of 57 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 22 of 68 | 32% | 21 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 46 of 99 | 46% | 22 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 46 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.
Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.
The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.
Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 103 of 199 | 51% | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 181 of 309 | 58% | 181 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 62 of 103 | 60% | 62 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 103 of 199 | 51% | 44 of 121 | 26 of 42 | 33 of 36 | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 181 of 309 | 58% | 62 of 149 | 62 of 91 | 57 of 69 | 181 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 25 of 39 | 64% | 10 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 18 of 26 | 69% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 30 of 53 | 56% | 4 of 20 | 13 of 17 | 13 of 16 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 20 of 38 | 52% | 5 of 18 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 29 of 53 | 54% | 6 of 24 | 13 of 18 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 35 of 60 | 58% | 18 of 38 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 35 of 61 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 9 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 18 of 49 | 36% | 11 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 62 of 103 | 60% | 27 of 58 | 22 of 27 | 13 of 18 | 62 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaethje (-175), Holloway (+145)
Round 1
Whether you believe the “BMF” title should matter or not, what bestowing that trophy on this next fight did was extend it to five rounds, and everyone should be thankful. It’s Justin Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC) in what many have pegged as a potential “Fight of the Year” entry. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that the lightweights receive instructions from referee Marc Goddard and that they touch gloves before fireworks ensue. Buckle up. The first strike likely of many comes from Holloway, who jabs the midsection and kicks it with his opposite leg. Gaethje bears down on him and loads up on an overhand right, missing the Hawaiian by inches. Gaethje sits down on a leg kick, and Holloway flicks out jabs to the body and head. Holloway pops a low kick on the thigh, and Gaethje hammers one back. Holloway sits down on a low kick and drives forward launching uppercuts. Gaethje slips back and knocks Holloway to his seat with a vicious calf kick. Holloway climbs back up without issue and bites on a feint from the BMF beltholder. Holloway strides in and lances a left hand down the middle, and Gaethje unloads and fires two big hooks. Holloway scores a clean uppercut, and he meets Gaethje in the middle and cracks him with another uppercut and a strong left hook. Gaethje keeps a solid poker face but he had his bell run in the exchange, and Holloway does not draw himself into a reckless exchange and instead measures with a front kick. Holloway prods out a left hand to intercept an advancing Gaethje, and he ignores a leg kick to mark up Gaethje’s nose. Chants for Holloway boom inside of the T-Mobile Arena, and he pokes out a leg kick and stays moving and rarely stays in the same place to not put himself in harm’s way. Holloway checks a kick, and he tosses out a half-hearted high kick. Gaethje responds with one that bounces off the shoulder, and Holloway nods at him. Holloway just misses on an uppercut, and he chips at the front leg with two kicks to the knee. Holloway checks another kick and unleashes a left and a stern right hand, and Gaethje chambers and fire a massive right hand that skims past the cheek. Holloway lunges forward with a right hand to the body, and Gaethje stumbles and gets back upright. Holloway high-fives him to make sure he is good to go, and Gaethje is fine. Holloway jabs with his foot, and a spin kick on the nose sends Gaethje flying. As the cage door opens to bring in corners for the middle of the round, Gaethje nearly falls out of the cage itself. Gaethje adjusts his nose that might have suffered some damage from the kick, and the tense round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
Gaethje appears overly concerned about his nose to begin the round, and it starts tentatively between the two. As Holloway sticks out a few jabs, blood streams from it, and Gaethje is not happy about it. Gaethje loads up on a huge right hand, and Holloway barely slides out of the way in time. Holloway rifles out jabs to the nose, and he chains two together before releasing a high body kick. The crowd is deafening with calls for Holloway, and Gaethje absorbs a little of the energy to land a powerful leg kick. Holloway gives him one back, and he reaches out to throw hands as Gaethje comes in swinging aggressively. Holloway stretches his finger out, and it jams deep into Gaethje’s eye. Goddard sees it and immediately calls time, and Gaethje is not about to stop because of some eye damage. After about 45 seconds, Gaethje declares he is good to go, and the fighters share a glove touch before getting after it. Gaethje lands a body kick, and Holloway does too. Gaethje winds up and slings a leg kick that Holloway partially checks. Holloway jabs the body and wraps a kick up that slaps into the BMF beltholder’s armpit. Gaethje slides to the side and adjusts his nose, and he springs forward with a right hand and a low kick. Holloway stands firm in front of him and continues targeting the body with long punches. Gaethje looses a right hand as Holloway pokes his hand out, and Holloway immediately apologizes and Gaethje gets time to recover. Goddard asks Holloway to be careful, and Gaethje is irritated but only takes 20 seconds before going back to it. Gaethje releases a heavy leg kick, and Holloway can only partially defend against it. Gaethje lashes out with a right and a left, missing the mark by a small margin. Holloway pushes out a teep kick and goes after a jab to the midsection, and Gaethje punishes him with a calf kick at the right time. Holloway raises his leg up a few times to take some of the pain away, and he surges into action with a pair of clean punches. Gaethje gets away with another stunning calf kick, and Holloway reaches him back with two punches. Holloway spins with a kick, and he tosses up high a body kick as the two brawl to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 3
There is a touch of gloves between the fighters to get started. Gaethje parries one punch, but Holloway lands a second to the midsection. Gaethje chops at his front leg, and Holloway pitches two back. Holloway lets go with a right hand to the sternum, and he kicks Holloway in the side and takes one right back. Gaethje whips a kick at him, and it buzzes past his opponent. Holloway has a body kick graze the cup, and Gaethje shakes it off and is fine. Gaethje stabs his toes at the midsection, and Holloway jabs him in the face. When Gaethje advances, Holloway reaches him with a clean uppercut. Gaethje batters the calf with another vicious kick, and Holloway’s do not nearly have the same impact. Gaethje scores a check left hook, and front kicks from both men go flying. Holloway beans Gaethje with a one-two and he blasts Gaethje with a spinning back kick that lands on the face. Gaethje tries to fire back, and Holloway chains a number of punches that drop Gaethje to a knee. Gaethje climbs back up and swings with bad intentions, and a low kick nearly compromises the former featherweight king as his leg swells up badly. Gaethje clears the cobwebs and backs away from a lunging combination, and he ducks down and a spinning back kick catches him flush in the ribs. Gaethje steels himself and eats a right hand, and he marches Holloway down and tries to unleash the thunder. Holloway keeps moving, circling to the right way to avoid the worst of the power. Gaethje kicks him in the shoulder, and Holloway comes back throwing with a left hand. Holloway gets in an uppercut, and Gaethje unloads a right hand and a low kick in response. Holloway rips a straight right hand to the midsection, and he releases a right hand that skims past Gaethje’s ear. They clash together when throwing hands violently, and Gaethje gathers himself and checks a leg kick. Gaethje kicks the body, and Holloway does the same to mirror what Gaethje does to him. Gaethje releases two more high kicks that are block before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The championship rounds are reached, and they begin with a fist bump. They hand-fight with one another before Gaethje pushes out a front kick. Holloway doubles up on the same kick, leading Gaethje to slam his shin on Holloway’s swollen calf. Holloway rips a right hand to the midsection, and he kicks on the other side as Gaethje tries to catch it but releases the leg. They trade body shots, and Gaethje whizzes past with a mighty one-two. Holloway lands a body kick and scores two big punches, and Gaethje whirrs into action with a barrage of heavy punches punctuated by two big right hands. Holloway marks the face up, and he forces Gaethje to buckle so he can work the body. Holloway jabs up the face, continuing to damage Gaethje’s busted nose, and Gaethje reels when he absorbs the blows but is more than willing to ruthlessly sling leather back at him. Gaethje chops down the front leg once more, and Holloway slides away from the other blows and lands a few of his own. Gaethje catches the Hawaiian standing still, landing several punches in rapid succession before Holloway can get away. “The Highlight” further batters the front leg, and Holloway responds with an accurate uppercut. Gaethje comes up short with a haymaker, allowing Holloway to roll and counter with a right hand. Holloway steps in with a knee and eats the end of a left hand with little effect. Gaethje beats down the front leg, and Holloway ignores the pain to put three punches to together to the body and head. Gaethje uncorks a bomb of a right hand drops Holloway to his seat, in what could register as the first knockdown in Holloway’s UFC career. Holloway pops right back up and fights behind his jab, making sure not to eat any unnecessary power shots while landing his own. They both lash out with body kicks, and Gaethje puts out a front kick for good measure. Gaethje smacks Holloway with a left hand, and he stings Holloway with a left and a right before the exciting round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
There is a shared fist bump, and a sharp inhale from the attendees of the T-Mobile Arena for what could be a ridiculous fifth and final frame. Gaethje uses his own jab, and Holloway meets him with a head kick that knocks Gaethje back several steps. Gaethje ducks a looping left hand, square into an uppercut waiting for him. He pays it no mind and jabs the body to follow it with a right over the top. Holloway spins with a kick that slides off Gaethje’s body, and he recovers and lines up two punches down Broadway. Gaethje scoops down to the Earth’s core to come up with a ferocious uppercut, and it blazes past Holloway and singes his hair. Holloway attacks, entering vintage “Blessed” mode by chaining well over a dozen punches together to the head and body. Gaethje responds with massive hooks, and Holloway spins with a back kick to the ribs. Gaethje takes a deep breath and allows Holloway to reach him with a right hand. Gaethje swipes out with a left, and Holloway’s spinning back kick again finds its home. Gaethje goes high with a kick that is blocked, and Holloway dings him with a right hand and jumps with a spin kick that catches “The Highlight.” Gaethje sits down on a low kick and jabs out with his hands, and Holloway bloodies his nose with a short blitz. Holloway ducks and digs a right hand to the body and a left to the head. Holloway connects with a solid left on the forehead, and he stomp kicks Gaethje’s knees coming in. Gaethje walks into a spin kick that connects cleanly, and he hits air when Holloway slips away. Holloway unloads with a painful kick to the body, and he strings a few more punches together. Gaethje tries to kick him upside the head, and Holloway blocks it and jumps at him with a knee. Gaethje kicks the lead leg, and Holloway is in trouble after all of this damage sustained. As Holloway hears that it’s time to power up, he points to the ground and signals that a tremendous brawl is about to ensue. Gaethje meets him in the middle, and with about 15 seconds left, everything they have left is unleashed in the Octagon. Gaethje slings violently, and Holloway does the same. Both men blast one another with hellacious power, knocking one another around the cage in a slugfest perfectly representing the “BMF” name. Holloway ducks down and channels all of his remaining energy into his right fist. “Blessed” releases it and smashes it into Gaethje’s temple, and Gaethje slumps to the ground on his face, completely annihilated. Holloway did it! With maybe one second left in a fight he was likely going to win, Holloway threw everything in the air and let the chips fall where they may. Absolutely incredible! Max Holloway is the baddest mister falcon in the UFC, and he did it in a way that will live forever on highlight reels. “Knockout of the Year” is likely well and sewn up now. The triumphant Hawaiian calls for championship fights at featherweight or lightweight, and with Alexander Volkanovski not the champ of the former, he can call his shots practically anywhere he wants. He also demands double bonus money for “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night.” Give the man what he wants, for he is a superstar.
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Justin Gaethje R5 4:59 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.
Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.
Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.
Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.
Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.
Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by third-round TKO, citing Holloway's volume and ability to capitalize on Gaethje's two-punch sequencing. He questions Gaethje's knockout power, noting he hasn't knocked out elite competition with punches. He believes Holloway's range, kicks, and durability will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 2 | 75 of 128 | 58% | 75 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 34 of 124 | 27% | 35 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 1 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 17 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 1 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 75 of 128 | 58% | 34 of 77 | 31 of 35 | 10 of 16 | 71 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 34 of 124 | 27% | 25 of 110 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 34 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 34 of 55 | 61% | 12 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 8 of 12 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 15 of 50 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 36 of 62 | 58% | 18 of 40 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 16 of 57 | 28% | 13 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Holloway will win, citing his striking volume, pressure, takedown defense, and championship experience. He notes that Holloway is an 8-to-1 favorite but he won't bet that price. He expects Holloway to dominate the striking exchanges and defend takedowns, potentially setting up another title shot.
Big Brady sees no clear path to victory for the Korean Zombie, as Holloway has superior volume, takedown defense, and durability. He notes that Zombie has looked bad in recent fights, taking significant damage against Volkanovski and Ortega. He expects Holloway to overwhelm Zombie with strikes, leading to a late-round knockout or corner stoppage.
Cody sees Holloway as a clear winner due to his legendary durability and volume striking. He notes that Holloway's speed and output will overwhelm the Korean Zombie, who is on a retirement fight and has shown decline. Cody expects Holloway to win by decision but also considers late-round finishes possible. He mentions using Holloway as a parlay anchor but warns that the minus 800 price is steep.
Daniel picks Max Holloway, citing his insane volume and output over five rounds. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is clear through sheer strike volume, while the Korean Zombie's only chance is a counter-striking power approach. He mentions that Zombie is 36 and coming off a brutal beating from Volkanovski, and that Holloway is the younger, more durable fighter. He expects a decision win for Holloway.
James is confident Max Holloway wins, believing he can finish the Korean Zombie whenever he wants. He notes Zombie hasn't looked good recently and that Holloway's volume and leg kicks will be too much. He considers Holloway by KO at -145 but passes due to the possibility of a decision or friendly fight. He thinks Holloway could finish early or late.
The host emphasizes Holloway's durability, cardio, and volume striking, and believes he will pressure the Korean Zombie and win a decision. He notes that Holloway is only 31 and has a lot to prove. The host mentions the over/under was steamed to over 2.5 and expects the fight to go the distance. He likes the Holloway by decision prop at +165.
Paul agrees Holloway wins but notes he's slowing down and more vulnerable than in the past. He points out that Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and may not be the same fighter, but the Korean Zombie is at the end of his career and lacks the tools to exploit that. Paul expects Holloway to win by decision or late finish, but warns that the price is too high for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over the Korean Zombie, citing style matchup issues. He explains that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents who move side-to-side and wrestle, but the Korean Zombie is a flat-footed, linear boxer who doesn't throw leg kicks. He notes Holloway's activity and youth (31) compared to Zombie's layoff and age (36). He predicts a late-round standing TKO, similar to the Volk fight but with more volume.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 147 of 262 | 56% | 149 of 264 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 76 of 225 | 33% | 80 of 229 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 51 | 64% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 35 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 24 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 147 of 262 | 56% | 77 of 180 | 42 of 48 | 28 of 34 | 146 of 261 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 76 of 225 | 33% | 48 of 173 | 18 of 36 | 10 of 16 | 76 of 225 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 27 of 62 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 10 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 26 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 33 of 51 | 64% | 20 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 14 of 45 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 29 of 52 | 55% | 12 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 33 of 48 | 68% | 21 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 20 of 66 | 30% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holloway (-175), Allen (+150)
Round 1
The featherweight championship trilogy for Holloway (23-7, 19-7 UFC) did not go his way, dropping three matches to king Alexander Volkanovski, and now “Blessed” will try to earn an unprecedented fourth crack at him. On the other hand, like excellent fighters at lightweight (Beneil Dariush) and welterweight (Belal Muhammad), Allen (19-1, 10-0 UFC) cannot seem to buy a title shot despite an outstanding win streak of 10 straight. Should “Almighty” get past the Hawaiian – Holloway has not lost a non-championship outing in nearly a decade – it should be more than enough to earn him the coveted opportunity to vie for a belt. One thing is certain: This fight should be electric. Referee Jason Herzog is on the call for the last fight of the night, and the two combatants are amped up but glad to touch gloves before the face punching begins. Allen is the aggressor to lead off, with a few leg kicks and jabs. Holloway hops around on the outside, dodging kicks and staying loose. Allen lets go with a body kick, but it is low and bounces off the cup. Herzog pauses the fight to let the Hawaiian get his wind back, but Holloway only needs 15 seconds before he is good to go. Holloway scores a chipping leg kick and two one-twos, and he blocks a head kick and gives one right back. Holloway digs a right to the head and left to the body, and he slides back out of harm’s way in time to avoid a counter. Allen connects cleanly with a left hand, and Holloway absorbs it without batting an eye. Holloway jabs to the body and eats a low kick, and he keeps his guard up from one up high. Holloway slips a jab to sneak one in, and he plants two fists on the Brit’s mug. When Allen misses on another high kick, Holloway tunes him up with three fast punches. They both land strikes on the outside, and Allen raises his arms up to reset. Holloway stomps at the knee with a kick, and he keeps scooting around the outer edge and away from the high kick. Holloway blocks a body kick, throws one back and ends the combination with a few punches. Holloway sneaks a left over the guard, and he leans back as a head kick whizzes past him. The two men clash leg kicks together, and Allen gives chase with a left hook that misses the mark. Holloway backs Allen up with a short combination, and Allen gathers his thoughts and flicks out a jab. Allen reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Holloway spins all the way through with a kick that glances off Allen’s midsection. Holloway times a body kick and a left hand, surprising Allen but not stunning him. Holloway slips a punch, moves, and reaches up with a head kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The fighters half-heartedly touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and he shifts to the side when Allen advances with a left hook. Allen aims a pair of kicks to the side, and he gets tripped up and a front kick clicks off the cup. Holloway shakes it off and they do not break, and Allen walks him down and slugs him in the face with a monster left hand. The Hawaiian tanks it and tries to trade back, and he gets clubbed again with a powerful left. Allen slows his barrage when Holloway sticks out a right hand, but he times a left over the jab to tag Holloway again. “Blessed” smacks the lead calf a few times, and it is turning red as Allen surges forward. Allen chambers and fires another left, but Holloway rolls with this one and is not overly concerned. Holloway splits the guard with a jab and marks up Allen’s nose, and he blocks head kick to return one. Holloway jabs the body as he reaches out, and he dodges a heavy strike and avoids a high kick that soars after it. Holloway strings three punches together while Allen is resetting, and he jabs to break up Allen’s looping punches. Holloway wings a right hand, and he follows it with three punches to the head and body. Holloway switches stances repeatedly to give Allen pause, and he hops in with a piercing jab. Allen whiffs on a left hand and connects with a front kick, and he takes a flush body kick that lands with an audible thud. Holloway gets caught with a left hook, and he flings a kick up high and throws one from the other leg that slips under the armpit. Holloway spins with a hook kick, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
Allen starts off Round 3 pushing the pace, and he walks into a quick right hand from “Blessed.” Allen returns fire, and his nose is showing some wear. Holloway lines up three punches on the jaw, and Allen has to take a second to gather his thoughts. Allen loads up on a right hook and a big left, and Holloway sees them and defends from the brunt of the damage. Allen gives chase with power punches, and Holloway jabs at him to the head and midsection. Holloway takes a strike to cut the inside of his eyebrow on his left eye, and he dodges the vicious swings to stay safe. Allen blocks a head kick and tags Holloway with two long left hands, and Holloway reaches him with a straight right to the body before leaping back. Holloway slides a kick up high and is backed off with a check right hook, and he slips several punches and sinks in another body kick. Holloway sends Allen backing away with a short combo of punches to bloody the nose, and the Brit waves Herzog off from a possible uncalled foul. Holloway slams his shin on the calf to make Allen’s knee turn in, and he stands right in the pocket to trade. Allen throws a high kick, and Holloway guards it and secures an unblocked kick to the midsection. Allen takes one more heavy kick, and Holloway closes in and gets off a step-in elbow. Holloway flashes out a jab and two punches when Allen bears down on him. Holloway spins with a back fist, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The fighters tap hands to start off the championship rounds, and he races forward to engage. Allen scores a few body shots before backing off, and Holloway lets him so that he can work on the welting calf of his opponent. Holloway jabs the nose, and he walks through a head kick to score a right hand down Broadway. Holloway slows Allen coming forward by pushing off Allen’s knee to potentially hyperextend it, and he darts back when Allen springs into attack mode. Holloway gets off one more kick to the body, and he spins with a kick that misses the mark. Holloway pops Allen with three punches in rapid succession, and he rips the body with a left. Allen gives him one back with a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done while Holloway keeps combinations flowing. Holloway keeps kicking at the knee, and he digs another straight hand to the breadbasket. Chants for “Holloway” rain down in the building as he delivers one more gutbusting kick, and Allen wears it well but is heavily marked up all over. Holloway jumps in, jabs the body, and jumps away. Allen catches a kick and tries to throw Holloway down, and when the Hawaiian will not go down, he tosses a head kick at him. Holloway blocks and circles away, and he guards a second head kick that soon follows. Holloway strides in with an elbow, and Allen catches him with a right. As soon as he does, Holloway is amped up and gives him one right back. Holloway slams a kick to the ribs, and he is answered with a powerful left hook. The former champ does not flinch, and he spins with a wheel kick and drops to a knee. Holloway climbs back up and works the body with a few punches, and he pecks at the knee a few times with his shin or the ball of his foot. Holloway goes up high with a kick, and Allen lunges with a left and gets drilled upside the head with a kick. Allen rushes out with a spin kick, and Holloway concludes the round with a high kick that wraps around the guard.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 5
The fighters clap hands to begin the final round, and Allen is ready to throw hammers. He chases Holloway around, knocking him around with big hooks. Allen stings the former champ with a left hand, and Holloway wears it well and escapes. Holloway steps back from an elbow to reach him with a knee, and he spins with an elbow that smashes Allen right on the jaw. Allen takes his foot off the gas when absorbing this heavy blow, and Holloway kicks his side. Allen swings for the fences but cannot reach Holloway with this exchange, and Holloway stands in front of him and puts several punches on the chin. Holloway does work on the lead knee and calf, and he digs a kick to the body that makes Allen rush in and clinch up with him. Holloway pushes him off and gains space, and he kicks the body again and knees it for good measure. Allen lashes out with a right hand, and Holloway dips away from the subsequent blows. Allen kicks Holloway in the head twice, and “Blessed” absorbs them and takes a few more heavy punches as he escapes. Allen lumbers into a winging left hook, and he tosses forth a head kick that slides off the guard. Allen is met with a one-two when trying to go forward again, and Holloway intercepts him with a knee to the ribs. Holloway kicks the side once more, and he ducks a kick that skims his hair. Holloway rolls with looping, dangerous shots, and Allen is emptying the gas tank and takes a spinning back kick to the body. When Holloway lands another kick to the body, he falls over, and Allen lets him up to throw hands. Allen gets too close and ties up, and his mouthpiece flies out. Herzog replaces it while the two are clinched, and Allen tries for a body lock takedown. “Blessed” remains upright and pushes away with seconds to spare. In typical Holloway fashion, he lets the final seconds turn into a mighty brawl. Allen hurts Holloway with an elbow, and Holloway blasts him with a stream of punches that hurt Allen and put him down to a knee. Allen pops back up, looking to trade leather, but time expires. This is a terrific fight in the books, and it was a close one that lived up to the expectations. Even in defeat, Allen’s stock should not fall far, as Holloway is one of a kind and still has not lost a non-title fight in almost 10 years. Next week, the UFC goes back to the Apex with a show featuring a potential heavyweight title eliminator, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Max Holloway, citing his incredible volume, experience, and size advantage. He notes Holloway is only 31 and has only lost to Volkanovski and Poirier. He acknowledges Holloway has absorbed a lot of damage and his chin may give out eventually, but until then he's riding with him. He has no bet on the main event, preferring to watch without wagering.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by knockout in the fourth or fifth round. He highlights Holloway's unmatched volume and durability, noting that his only recent losses are to Alexander Volkanovski. He believes Arnold Allen's only path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Holloway's chin. He expects Holloway to break Allen late.
Cody acknowledges Holloway's mileage and potential regression, but trusts his proven five-round cardio, durability, and volume. He notes Arnold Allen's low output historically and questions whether Allen can maintain high output for five rounds. He sees Holloway as still the superior fighter, though he admits Allen is improving and could win in a few years.
Connor picks Holloway but expresses hesitation, noting that Allen's southpaw style and counter-punching could pose problems similar to Poirier's approach. He acknowledges Holloway's wear and tear from a long career and many wars, but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven track record against top competition. Connor feels Allen has not yet shown he can maintain the necessary pace and composure for five rounds against Holloway.
Holloway's output and durability will overwhelm Allen, who has benefited from favorable matchmaking and low activity. Holloway's only recent losses are to Volkanovski, and he still performed well against Kattar and Rodriguez. Allen's low output style will be exposed by Holloway's volume and pressure. Expect Holloway to finish late, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.
Paul echoes Cody's reasoning, emphasizing Holloway's incredible volume and durability. He notes that Holloway landed 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, questioning if Arnold Allen can keep that pace. He acknowledges Holloway may be slowing down but still finds it hard to ignore his output.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by decision, citing Holloway's volume striking, boxing, chin, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Arnold Allen's power and recent improvements but believes Holloway's experience in championship fights and ability to take three of five rounds will prevail. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and sees value on Allen at +155, but ultimately sides with Holloway.
Zane picks Holloway, acknowledging Allen's southpaw tactics and potential but emphasizing Holloway's proven durability and pace. He notes that Allen's best wins have asterisks (Hooker at wrong weight, Kattar injury) and that Holloway has only lost to elite competition like Volkanovski and Poirier. Zane believes Holloway's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 199 of 372 | 53% | 204 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 127 of 301 | 42% | 161 of 335 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 38 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 37 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 48 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 199 of 372 | 53% | 152 of 316 | 19 of 24 | 28 of 32 | 175 of 340 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 127 of 301 | 42% | 64 of 213 | 42 of 59 | 21 of 29 | 109 of 283 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 28 of 70 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 24 of 56 | 42% | 11 of 31 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 78 | 47% | 29 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 26 of 63 | 41% | 16 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 44 of 70 | 62% | 37 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 58 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 31 of 63 | 49% | 13 of 41 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 80 | 62% | 37 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.
Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.
Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.
Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.
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