UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Geoff Neal
5.02 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.5 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mike Perry
4.32 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
5.16 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.81 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Geoff Neal - Fight History
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
KO R1 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert pick date unknown

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO R1 4:59 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.

"Carlos should win here. I think he's the better striker. There should be mostly striking going on here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.

Prates by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Pches to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm going to pick Prates just cause I'm not going to fall off the bandwagon. And I think this is a winnable fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.

"I think the speed and explosivity of Neil will allow him to land big shots on Proches throughout the 15 minutes here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.

Late first round or second round finish; knees up the middle
"I think we're going to see this get a little bit scrappy. And I actually think we're going to see this end up being a Carlos Pres late first round or second round finish over Jeff Neil."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm tempted to take Geoff Neal. I think there's a bad version of this fight where Jeff Neil still makes it tough and might just take the rounds."
CANCEL vs Carlos Prates
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 46 of 89 51% 57 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:45
Geoff Neal 0 67 of 135 49% 80 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 18 of 27 66% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Geoff Neal 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 17 of 34 50% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Geoff Neal 0 23 of 43 53% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 28 39% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Geoff Neal 0 24 of 54 44% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 46 of 89 51% 25 of 64 10 of 13 11 of 12 38 of 79 8 of 10 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 67 of 135 49% 39 of 96 18 of 27 10 of 12 65 of 133 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 20 of 38 52% 10 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 17 of 34 50% 10 of 24 4 of 6 3 of 4 11 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 23 of 43 53% 16 of 34 5 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 28 39% 4 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 24 of 54 44% 13 of 38 6 of 10 5 of 6 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Geoff Neal wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I do think Ian Gary wins though but he's not going to be anywhere near my safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Neal by KO, round 2
"I'm actually G to take Jeff Neil here as a dog I'm gonna take Jeff Neil to to land a big shot and knock out and Gary here I'll say he knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

"I think he wins more often than none on volume so could he clip Neil and put him away yeah but I think probably a decision stay to the outside pitter patter stay smart..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

"I'm picking Ian Gary here... I think he's overall a cleaner technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

"I think he can pull go out there and pull off the upset with a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

"the pick's going to be Gary I don't I I I want him to lose though so I I know you're not supposed to let your emotions get in the way of money but it's like I would feel dirty …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.

"I'm going Jeff Neal... you can't get dropped by Tekashi Sato and expect me not to pick Jeff Neal to finish you off."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
KO (punches) R3 2:01 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 97 of 203 47% 97 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 2 121 of 211 57% 125 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 52 of 93 55% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Geoff Neal 0 51 of 91 56% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 40 of 75 53% 43 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
3 Geoff Neal 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 97 of 203 47% 56 of 156 26 of 31 15 of 16 91 of 195 6 of 8 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 121 of 211 57% 113 of 202 5 of 6 3 of 3 103 of 186 17 of 22 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 30 of 80 37% 20 of 67 8 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 52 of 93 55% 48 of 89 3 of 3 1 of 1 49 of 87 2 of 3 1 of 3
2 Geoff Neal 51 of 91 56% 28 of 68 15 of 15 8 of 8 46 of 85 5 of 6 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 40 of 75 53% 36 of 70 2 of 3 2 of 2 33 of 66 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 16 of 32 50% 8 of 21 3 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0 21 of 33 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

"strike for strike i like lucay to win not only does he have better striking differential but he's got cleaner footwork better speed and higher volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

decision win prediction
"i think luke does win this one i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I'm going to take Luque as well... he's got excellent footwork... I gotta go with Luque by decision because I do think Jeff Neal's super durable."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Bet 2 units on Neal at +155; expects decision but open to KO
"I took the plus 155 odds on Jeff Neal I put two units on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I like Vicente Luque... he's got more options more ways to win this fight... I think Luque wins probably around 65 70 percent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.

"i'm gonna go with jeff neal... i think luke takes too long to get going in three-rounders and neil's got a power that will make luke respect him"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 85 of 161 52% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 91 of 229 39% 91 of 229 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Geoff Neal 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
3 Geoff Neal 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 85 of 161 52% 73 of 145 5 of 9 7 of 7 85 of 161 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 91 of 229 39% 62 of 195 12 of 17 17 of 17 90 of 228 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 63 41% 17 of 54 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Geoff Neal 19 of 47 40% 16 of 41 2 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 15 of 61 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 46 of 73 63% 44 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 46 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 39 of 93 41% 30 of 80 3 of 7 6 of 6 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Neal by knockout in round 1
"i'll take neil to get the win i think a lot of people are counting them out i definitely understand why but i don't take neil to get the knockout here in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

"give me santiago ponzinibio to win a war of attrition here once again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

by KO
"i'm going jeff neal again a couple contrarian picks compared to what i've been seeing out there recently but i feel decent about it here in jeff know especially at these underdog odds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

30-27 decision win
"i'm going to go with santiago ponzibio here over jeff neal um i was picking ponzinio anyway more experienced better technically on the feet"
Mike Perry - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 61 of 132 46% 65 of 137 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:49
Mike Perry 0 129 of 235 54% 145 of 252 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 21 of 42 50% 25 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
Mike Perry 0 33 of 63 52% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Mike Perry 0 43 of 81 53% 47 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 24 of 48 50% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Mike Perry 0 53 of 91 58% 62 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 61 of 132 46% 27 of 85 14 of 21 20 of 26 60 of 130 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Perry 129 of 235 54% 90 of 191 11 of 14 28 of 30 129 of 235 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 21 of 42 50% 5 of 22 3 of 6 13 of 14 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Perry 33 of 63 52% 22 of 50 2 of 4 9 of 9 33 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 16 of 42 38% 9 of 31 5 of 6 2 of 5 15 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 43 of 81 53% 30 of 65 4 of 5 9 of 11 43 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 24 of 48 50% 13 of 32 6 of 9 5 of 7 24 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 53 of 91 58% 38 of 76 5 of 5 10 of 10 53 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Rodriguez to win a close decision, but he is not confident and is passing on betting. He notes that Perry is taking the fight seriously and looks in great shape, but he cannot trust Perry due to his poor striking defense and tendency to absorb damage. Brady thinks Rodriguez is more defensively sound and durable, and the fight likely goes to decision. He mentions the over might be a good look but does not bet.

over might be a good look
"i will take dan rodriguez to win a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez hesitantly, citing his output and sharper striking. He notes Perry's inconsistency and poor weight cuts, but acknowledges Perry's power and potential if in shape. He thinks Rodriguez's volume and reach advantage could be key.

"my official pick is gonna be daniel rodriguez because i just think he's got the output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mike Perry

Daniel Levi picks Mike Perry, viewing the fight as a coin flip. He notes that Perry has been in a good place mentally, training at MMA Masters, and that his last two fights he didn't train properly. Levi is skeptical of Daniel Rodriguez, citing his suspect chin and close fights against Gabriel Green and Nicolas Dalby. He thinks Perry's power and improved camp could be the difference.

"I'm gonna take perry here uh to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Perry

The host is buying into the 'Papa Perry' narrative and the move to MMA Masters, expecting improvements in Perry's game, particularly calf kicks. He thinks Rodriguez is overrated and that Perry's power and durability could be key. He picks Perry to win by decision, though he acknowledges the weight cut is a concern.

Perry by decision
"i really like uh my perry in the spot um i think he's a solid underdog and i think he could bring in a game here that's truly gonna stifle whatever daniel rodriguez brings"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

Paul leans Rodriguez, noting Perry's mental and physical issues. He mentions Perry's poor weight cuts and lack of training, but acknowledges Perry's live underdog potential. He thinks Rodriguez's striking and cardio give him an edge.

"i guess i'll pick daniel rodriguez just on a little bit longer striking"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez by second-round submission (d'arce choke). He believes Rodriguez will rock Perry on the feet, causing Perry to shoot for a takedown into a choke. He notes Perry's decline since his nose injury and poor performance against Mickey Gall. He highlights Rodriguez's 10th Planet jiu-jitsu and recovery skills. He predicts a back-and-forth first round before Rodriguez finishes in the second.

second round d'arce choke submission
"i'm going to go with daniel rodriguez gets it done dash choke in the second round"
LOSS vs Tim Means
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 0 64 of 161 39% 69 of 166 1 of 5 20% 2 0 3:08
Mike Perry 0 128 of 192 66% 143 of 207 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:22
Mike Perry 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
2 Tim Means 0 20 of 60 33% 20 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Mike Perry 0 44 of 60 73% 44 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Tim Means 0 30 of 70 42% 35 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Mike Perry 0 57 of 92 61% 69 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 64 of 161 39% 44 of 134 8 of 12 12 of 15 62 of 157 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mike Perry 128 of 192 66% 86 of 147 26 of 28 16 of 17 121 of 184 6 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 14 of 31 45% 7 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 27 of 40 67% 18 of 31 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Tim Means 20 of 60 33% 11 of 46 3 of 6 6 of 8 20 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 44 of 60 73% 28 of 43 10 of 10 6 of 7 42 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 30 of 70 42% 26 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 3 29 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Perry 57 of 92 61% 40 of 73 9 of 11 8 of 8 55 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tim Means

Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.

big pass, need to see weigh-ins
"i'm going to go with means i'm going to go with the dude that probably has more motivation for this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tim Means

Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.

"i'm gonna go with tim means to get it done and i think he makes it two wins in a row here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tim Means

The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.

"I'm taking Tim Means to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mike Perry

The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.

"i'm going with mike perry by unanimous decision 29 28 but i'm worried"
WIN vs Mickey Gall
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker · Jun 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 1 76 of 131 58% 103 of 158 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:44
Mickey Gall 0 55 of 106 51% 59 of 111 0 of 6 0% 0 1 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:28
Mickey Gall 0 21 of 40 52% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mike Perry 1 26 of 33 78% 41 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Mickey Gall 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:51
3 Mike Perry 0 30 of 47 63% 42 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
Mickey Gall 0 22 of 42 52% 24 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 76 of 131 58% 49 of 98 14 of 20 13 of 13 51 of 100 6 of 6 19 of 25
Mickey Gall 55 of 106 51% 39 of 89 8 of 9 8 of 8 51 of 97 3 of 6 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 20 of 51 39% 10 of 39 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 41 2 of 2 3 of 8
Mickey Gall 21 of 40 52% 11 of 30 5 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
2 Mike Perry 26 of 33 78% 20 of 26 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 19 2 of 2 11 of 12
Mickey Gall 12 of 24 50% 9 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 21 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Mike Perry 30 of 47 63% 19 of 33 7 of 10 4 of 4 23 of 40 2 of 2 5 of 5
Mickey Gall 22 of 42 52% 19 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 22 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Perry

Big Brady picks Mike Perry despite concerns about Perry's personal life (girlfriend cornering him). He believes Perry's wrestling and strength will neutralize Gall's takedown attempts, and that Perry's superior competition and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He notes that Gall's only path is getting Perry down, which he thinks is unlikely.

Perry by KO in round 1; wouldn't put him in a parlay due to concerns; Gall at +255 is a shot but not for him
"I like Perry to win here... probably gonna get a knockout on Mickey Gall in that first round."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mickey Gall

Daniel Levi picks Mickey Gall for the upset, citing Perry's chaotic personal life, lack of coaching, and stagnation in skill development. He notes Gall's improvement in his last fight against Salim Touahri, showing better fight IQ and cardio. Levi believes Gall's jiu-jitsu black belt and submission threat could catch Perry if he overextends. He acknowledges Perry's strength and clinch game but thinks the line is too wide and Gall has a chance to submit him.

Gall wins by submission
"I think this Saturday has all the ingredients for him to rise to the occasion and choke out Mike Perry somewhere along the way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Perry

The MMA Guru confidently picks Mike Perry to win by KO, stating that Mickey Gall's only chance is to get the fight to the ground, but Perry's takedown defense is strong. He predicts Perry will break Gall in the clinch and land an elbow or shot for a first-round TKO. He dismisses concerns about Perry's girlfriend being in his corner, believing his gym will prevent that from being a distraction.

Perry by KO/TKO in first round; Perry to land an elbow or shot off the break
"I think Mike Perry wins by KO pretty brutally... I think it's gonna be a first round... Mike Perry is gonna eventually break and land an elbow or a shot off the break that's gonna KO Mickey go"
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 1:30 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mike Perry 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mike Perry 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 15 of 23 65% 12 of 18 1 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Mike Perry 5 of 10 50% 1 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 15 of 23 65% 12 of 18 1 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Mike Perry 5 of 10 50% 1 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 84 of 179 46% 85 of 180 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Mike Perry 0 87 of 175 49% 116 of 204 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Perry 0 32 of 71 45% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 41 of 82 50% 41 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Perry 0 41 of 75 54% 41 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
3 Vicente Luque 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Mike Perry 0 14 of 29 48% 43 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 84 of 179 46% 43 of 125 6 of 9 35 of 45 83 of 178 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 87 of 175 49% 56 of 135 11 of 17 20 of 23 75 of 157 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 28 of 61 45% 12 of 38 4 of 4 12 of 19 27 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 32 of 71 45% 22 of 59 4 of 6 6 of 6 32 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 41 of 82 50% 28 of 65 1 of 3 12 of 14 41 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Perry 41 of 75 54% 28 of 58 5 of 8 8 of 9 34 of 65 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 15 of 36 41% 3 of 22 1 of 2 11 of 12 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Perry 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 2 of 3 6 of 8 9 of 23 5 of 6 0 of 0
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 48 of 137 35% 50 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Alex Oliveira 0 65 of 110 59% 75 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 17 of 48 35% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Alex Oliveira 0 20 of 29 68% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Mike Perry 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 36 58% 30 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
3 Mike Perry 0 15 of 55 27% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 48 of 137 35% 30 of 110 7 of 16 11 of 11 42 of 125 6 of 11 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 65 of 110 59% 48 of 90 6 of 8 11 of 12 32 of 72 18 of 19 15 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 17 of 48 35% 11 of 37 4 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 42 3 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 20 of 29 68% 13 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 16 of 34 47% 10 of 27 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 21 of 36 58% 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 14 of 18
3 Mike Perry 15 of 55 27% 9 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 24 of 45 53% 18 of 37 2 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 34 9 of 10 1 of 1
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
Submission (armbar) R1 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 9 of 13 69% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:40
Mike Perry 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 9 of 13 69% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:40
Mike Perry 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 8 5 of 5 0 of 0
Mike Perry 11 of 20 55% 0 of 9 6 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 13 6 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 8 5 of 5 0 of 0
Mike Perry 11 of 20 55% 0 of 9 6 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 13 6 of 6 1 of 1
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 56 of 120 46% 64 of 128 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 62 of 110 56% 66 of 114 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 22 of 41 53% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Paul Felder 0 23 of 44 52% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Mike Perry 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 17 of 22 77% 18 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:41
3 Mike Perry 0 22 of 45 48% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 22 of 44 50% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 56 of 120 46% 27 of 79 16 of 24 13 of 17 48 of 110 7 of 9 1 of 1
Paul Felder 62 of 110 56% 34 of 78 15 of 18 13 of 14 42 of 86 17 of 21 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 22 of 41 53% 11 of 27 5 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 37 3 of 4 0 of 0
Paul Felder 23 of 44 52% 11 of 30 6 of 8 6 of 6 15 of 32 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 12 of 34 35% 6 of 20 2 of 7 4 of 7 11 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 17 of 22 77% 10 of 15 6 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 14 5 of 5 3 of 3
3 Mike Perry 22 of 45 48% 10 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 41 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 22 of 44 50% 13 of 33 3 of 4 6 of 7 18 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0