UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Oct 05, 2019 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Israel Adesanya
4.03 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.05 TD Avg
9.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
4.39 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Israel Adesanya - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
KO R2 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 42 of 75 56% 58 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 36 of 70 51% 52 of 90 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
2 Israel Adesanya 0 18 of 33 54% 21 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 27 of 47 57% 43 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 42 of 75 56% 22 of 54 8 of 8 12 of 13 42 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 36 of 70 51% 33 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 42 2 of 7 16 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 24 of 42 57% 13 of 30 2 of 2 9 of 10 24 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 4 2 of 2
2 Israel Adesanya 18 of 33 54% 9 of 24 6 of 6 3 of 3 18 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 27 of 47 57% 26 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1 12 of 25 1 of 3 14 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

"I'm going to pick Izzy here. I think Izzy is the better striker. At this age, is he the more powerful guy? No. Can his chin withstand a big Joe Pyfer punch? Absolutely not. 100% no."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Adesanya by decision
"As long as Israel Adesanya's chin holds up for 25 minutes, I kind of think he wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

"I will take Israel Adesanya, but you can't feel great about it given that he's lost his last couple fights and he's coming off a knockout loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Odds: Adesanya opened -110, now -150; Pyfer opened +110, now +130. Betting public coming in on Adesanya.
"I'm going to make a classic Connery Bush style pick and pick a draw to Sonya because I don't think Joe Pfeiffer is good."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

"I think Joe Pyfer's going to come out here and it's going to be super sad when you see a guy like Joe Pyfer... come out here and beat Israel Adesanya in demoralizing fashion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

"It's a good stylistic match-up for Izzy. But it can reach a point in a fighter's career where they just find ways to lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

Israel Adesanya by KO (+325), Israel Adesanya to win in round 4 (+2200) or round 5 (+2500)
"The hammer of the week is Israel Adisagna outs of minus 130."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Pyer. I'm going to go Per inside the distance. Um maybe club and sub. Maybe something similar to what Drizzles did as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

"Israel Adesanya minus 150 is fine by me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

TKO in round 3
"I'm going with Israel Adisana to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Odds: Pyfer opened +110, now +130.
"I think honestly, Pfeiffer is the more rational pick, though."
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 94 of 271 34% 94 of 271 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 137 of 259 52% 137 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 12 of 39 30% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 64 31% 20 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 57 36% 21 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 36 of 71 50% 36 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 94 of 271 34% 22 of 154 38 of 60 34 of 57 94 of 271 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 137 of 259 52% 85 of 186 45 of 62 7 of 11 121 of 235 11 of 14 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 12 of 39 30% 1 of 20 3 of 7 8 of 12 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 27 of 52 51% 22 of 42 1 of 4 4 of 6 11 of 28 11 of 14 5 of 10
2 Sean Strickland 20 of 64 31% 3 of 35 7 of 12 10 of 17 20 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 32 50% 11 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 21 of 57 36% 4 of 27 10 of 17 7 of 13 21 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 20 of 41 48% 12 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 7 of 10 3 of 6 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 38 of 63 60% 22 of 46 15 of 16 1 of 1 38 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 21 of 60 35% 4 of 37 11 of 14 6 of 9 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 36 of 71 50% 18 of 44 16 of 25 2 of 2 36 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)

Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.

Considering Izzy minus 5.5 points on BetOnline for better odds
"This is Izzy all day like I'm not gonna do pretend and then do like the Gordon Ramsay reveal but the yeah he's a 650 favorite and it should honestly be wider than that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.

fight doesn't go to decision? no, he says decision
"I like arasandi here to pick apart Sean Strickland for five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.

Strickland money line as a hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think as out of Sanyo wins if this line kind of keeps if it keeps growing and we're getting like plus 600 on on flight night and I'm having like a good night I may throw a little bit …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.

Odds mentioned: Izzy minus 650, Strickland plus 475. Levi says Izzy should be minus 1000.
"I think Izzy has him covered in all areas and I know a lot of people are bringing up well what if Sean wrestles and it's like I think that's such a broad question."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.

Mentions that Izzy is a deserved -600 favorite and that he doesn't see value in betting Strickland at +400.
"I think Izzy is a deserved minus 600 I think he should be a massive massive favor I don't I don't see the tools that Sean Strickland wins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.

Adesanya by KO
"I'm gonna hold in on othersanya by KO I think he sets up a trap similar to what he did against Paul Acosta and he Springs it on and within the first four rounds or so"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.

Strickland money line as a small hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I got this thing lined up closer to minus 425 minus 450 Israel the longtime Champion is the Matador and he could very well be exactly that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.

TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Israel I understand you're getting this one done via round three TKO"
WIN vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 49 of 85 57% 49 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 41 of 96 42% 41 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 49 of 85 57% 8 of 28 15 of 21 26 of 36 48 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 41 of 96 42% 18 of 61 14 of 24 9 of 11 40 of 93 0 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 31 64% 1 of 4 3 of 6 16 of 21 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 15 of 38 39% 3 of 22 5 of 8 7 of 8 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 29 of 54 53% 7 of 24 12 of 15 10 of 15 28 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 26 of 58 44% 15 of 39 9 of 16 2 of 3 25 of 55 0 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.

"I am on the Alex paheda side now he's beaten Izzy three times stopped him two times"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.

third round knockout
"give me Alex prayer for the win you know I'm going to take him to win uh by I'll say third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.

plus money on Pereira
"I'm with you I think um plus money on Pereira it's it's definitely the side as far as I'm concerned"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Connor is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his two KO wins over Adesanya.
"I'm going to essentially wish him luck by not picking it until I see it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.

"I think he gets knocked out even quicker because for whatever reason Alex seems even more motivated now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.

"I still lean with Izzy being the more complete fighter here Aileen with being the guy that has more paths to victory in this matchup which is why I think he's going to go out there and win back his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.

plus money on champion; Pereira at +115
"I just feel like a plus money I'd be stupid not to have a sniff so am I super confident this is a world class five round main event... but yeah I got to take Alex Pereira to retain"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.

second round KO
"Alex Pereira gets it done by second round KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Zane is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his head-to-head record.
"I can't imagine him letting Pereira hang around for five rounds and winning. I just can't."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (punches) R5 2:01 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 86 of 162 53% 119 of 209 1 of 4 25% 0 0 6:34
Israel Adesanya 0 91 of 157 57% 140 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Israel Adesanya 0 23 of 41 56% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 44 45% 30 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 36 47% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
3 Alex Pereira 0 14 of 25 56% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Israel Adesanya 0 8 of 14 57% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 29 51% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Alex Pereira 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 37 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 86 of 162 53% 41 of 103 21 of 29 24 of 30 77 of 148 3 of 4 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 91 of 157 57% 42 of 89 27 of 33 22 of 35 76 of 139 14 of 17 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 23 of 43 53% 6 of 22 6 of 8 11 of 13 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 23 of 41 56% 1 of 12 8 of 10 14 of 19 19 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 44 45% 14 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 6 19 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 17 of 36 47% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 5 15 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 14 of 25 56% 7 of 17 5 of 6 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1
4 Alex Pereira 20 of 35 57% 10 of 19 6 of 11 4 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 4 of 5 3 of 6 11 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
5 Alex Pereira 9 of 15 60% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 28 of 37 75% 18 of 26 8 of 9 2 of 2 25 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-130), Pereira (+110)

Round 1
At long last, the main event is here. The middleweight championship will be on the line for two men that know one another intimately. This will be their second meeting in the cage, but fourth across combat sports, and Pereira (7-1, 4-0 UFC) is 3-0 thus far. The once-dominant champion Adesanya (23-2, 12-2 UFC) met his match last November, falling to a salvo of strikes in the fifth round in a fight he was winning. Needing no further introduction or hype, the two stand directly in front of one another as referee Dan Miragliotta gives the final instructions as the two do not break eye contact. The match begins with no glove touch, and Pereira lashes out first with a low kick. Adesanya responds with a few body kicks, and he kicks the calf as well. Pereira strikes the low leg again, and they trade kicks to this target and this target alone. The pace is slow and deliberate, with the middleweights well out of punching range. Pereira gets off a low kick, and Adesanya slaps him in the face with his foot. Pereira scores a few more leg kicks, and he does not flinch any time Adesanya manages to land on him. Pereira slides his foot up Adesanya’s shoulder with a head kick, but Adesanya dodges it well enough to not let it strike him in the face. Pereira jabs the body and kicks at the lead leg, and he dips back from a looping one-two. The former champ gets off a pair of body kicks, and Pereira continues his assault on the former champ’s calf. Adesanya whips another kick to the ribcage, and he slams a few kicks to the Brazilian’s inside leg. “The Last Stylebender” strikes the body with his shin, and Pereira kicks low and high – the second misses, and the crowd gasps. Adesanya looks to split the guard, but Pereira protects himself and scores a heavy calf kick. The action-free round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 2
When the second round begins, Adesanya fires off several high kicks that Pereira blocks or dodges. Adesanya sits down on a calf kick, and Pereira nods at him. Pereira absorbs a head kick and nods, and he walks Adesanya down and starts slugging it out with him. The Brazilian wings huge punches, and Adesanya eats a few of them and backs off to bounce off the wall. Pereira corners him, but he lets him off the hook when Adesanya gets off a good shot. Adesanya begins to lead the dance again, with several kicks from his rear leg to the midsection and raised guard. Pereira attacks both calves with kicks as Adesanya switches stances, and “The Last Stylebender” reaches him with a few punches. One jab in response from Pereira knocks Adesanya back with much more emphasis behind it. Adesanya winds up with a right hook, and Pereira frowns and resets to keep pounding on Adesanya’s calf. They fire jabs at one another from a wide distance, and Adesanya slams his shin on Pereira’s inner thigh. Adesanya clips Pereira with a clean left hook, and Pereira walks through it and two follow-up punches to aim a right hand down Broadway. Adesanya strings a few punches to the body and one to the head, and he skirts back as a low kick comes at him. Pereira lands another low, and Adesanya counters him with an overhand right. They come together and throw hands, with Adesanya the one to break and escape as Pereira walks him down. The champion stuns Adesanya with a calf kick, and Adesanya is compromised. Adesanya falls back to the cage, barely able to stand up, and Pereira lays into him with a brutal series of body shots and a knee. Adesanya desperately fires off a right hand to back Pereira off, and Pereira reels but stands back up. Adesanya connects with one second right hand flush on the temple, and “Poatan” collapses to the ground like a ton of bricks. Before Miragliotta can reach them, Adesanya lands one more shot for good measure out of the playbook of Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping, and Pereira is completely unconscious, dreaming of his ancestors. Adesanya stands up and mocks Pereira’s bow-and-arrow move from before and motions to fire three arrows at the fallen Brazilian. Incredible! Adesanya has done it, exacting some modicum of revenge on the man to beat him three times before. The building erupts as Adesanya celebrates his triumph, and Pereira is out for a while and eventually comes to. “The Last Stylebender” claims the microphone and gives a motivational speech about the thrill of victory, imploring everyone to have this feeling at least once in their life. Whether Adesanya moves on to challenge new opponents vying for his throne or if they set up the rubber match for all the marbles, we will be certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Israel Adesanya def. Alex Pereira R2 4:21 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.

under 4.5 rounds at +150 (placed months ago)
"I'm gonna have to pick Israel atasanya I'm gonna have to pick the current middleweight champion of the world to beat a dude with seven fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.

Adesanya by decision; big cage favors Adesanya; no takedowns expected
"I like ottasania to win a quote-unquote boring decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.

"I gotta go the other way... I just think that if it's going to end up being a kickboxing match there's a lot that I really do like."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.

No bet at the moment; odds mentioned: Izzy -180, Pereira +155 at DraftKings
"my pick is going to be Izzy I don't have a bet at the moment I'm kind of juggling if I want to bet it or if I just want to sit back and enjoy it as a fan but …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.

"I think that Izzy is rightfully favored here I have no intentions of betting Izzy at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.

"I think it's a pretty clear you know you don't have to like twist my arm too much to get me to bet an underdog so yeah Pereira will be the pick and I'll have money on him come Saturday …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.

KO round two
"I'm going with Alex Pereira again"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 116 of 230 50% 163 of 277 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 90 of 157 57% 141 of 217 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 35 48% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 36 47% 38 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
4 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 45 53% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 36 44% 31 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
5 Israel Adesanya 0 25 of 54 46% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 26 76% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 116 of 230 50% 60 of 165 26 of 31 30 of 34 114 of 226 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 90 of 157 57% 36 of 89 32 of 40 22 of 28 78 of 143 12 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 48 45% 7 of 29 6 of 8 9 of 11 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 18 of 28 64% 1 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 14 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 28 of 48 58% 12 of 32 9 of 9 7 of 7 28 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 31 61% 6 of 15 9 of 11 4 of 5 19 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 35 48% 9 of 26 4 of 4 4 of 5 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 17 of 36 47% 7 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 6 9 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 24 of 45 53% 15 of 34 5 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 16 of 36 44% 8 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 25 of 54 46% 17 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 20 of 26 76% 14 of 19 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.

"I like izzy to win this fight but it will be very interesting to see what happened if jared lands clean"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.

Adesanya by decision
"adasanya i'll say adasanya by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he's going to be cleaner more polished stand up and uh you know on route to likely a decision Victory or maybe like a late stoppage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.

Line is about right; no value at -500; would have been interested at -300 to -400 for a parlay.
"on paper i mean you gotta favor izzy... the pick is easy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Adesanya wins in round 4/5 or decision +115
"i think arizona wins no real resistance here in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I don't think Jared Cannonier is a complete sitting duck in this spot... but I do think he wins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.

fourth round TKO
"i'm gonna be going with israel to sanyo winning this one by fourth round tko"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
SCHED vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"