Career Averages - Serghei Spivac
Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa
Serghei Spivac - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 67 of 149 | 44% | 102 of 185 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 61 of 172 | 35% | 61 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 67 of 149 | 44% | 65 of 145 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 67 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 61 of 172 | 35% | 56 of 166 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 58 of 168 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 19 of 58 | 32% | 17 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 26 of 63 | 41% | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 27 of 62 | 43% | 25 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 16 of 51 | 31% | 14 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing his size, wrestling, and pressure will stifle Serghei Spivac's takedowns. He notes Spivac struggles against athletic pressure and Delija is the better wrestler. He is slightly worried about Delija's chin but thinks Spivac lacks knockout power.
Big Brady picks Ante Delija to defeat Serghei Spivak, citing Spivak's poor durability and Delija's well-rounded skills. He notes Spivak's wins have aged poorly and that he was knocked out by Jailton Almeida, which is embarrassing. He believes Delija can stuff takedowns and then destroy Spivak on the feet, predicting a first-round knockout. He references Delija's performance against Marcin Tybura where he stuffed all takedowns and finished early.
Cody is chasing plus money on Spivac, noting Delija's poor gas tank and chin issues. He thinks if Delija doesn't get an early KO, Spivac's grappling and cardio will take over. He admits it's a low-confidence play but likes the value.
Connor picks Delija because he believes Delija's explosive, aggressive style will overwhelm Spivak, who is slow and has poor defense. He notes that Delija is a glass cannon but that Spivak's chin is also questionable, and that Delija's size and power should be enough to finish early. He also points out that Spivak's game relies on clinch takedowns, which Delija's size can neutralize.
The host believes Delija is better in all aspects and has a clear stylistic advantage, but the odds (-181) do not offer value. He cannot confidently give Delija a 70% win probability required for value, so he passes on betting.
James leans toward Ante Delija via first-round KO, citing Delija's early power and aggression. He notes that Spivac can be hurt early and that Delija has more finishing upside in the first round. However, he acknowledges Spivac's grappling advantage if the fight goes longer, and he is not fully confident due to Delija's questionable chin and the weird nature of the fight.
Delija is a much better striker with good defensive wrestling. Spivac needs to get fights to the ground to win, but Delija should be able to stuff takedowns and force a striking match. Spivac has lost to athletic strikers before. Delija will walk him down and land big shots, likely a TKO in the first round. The line dropping is a gift.
Paul has no conviction on this fight, calling it a coin flip. He notes Delija's power and Spivac's grappling but doesn't see a clear edge. He prefers to avoid betting it.
The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija by decision, believing he will be sharper at range with low kicks. He notes Delija's good cage defense and three-round experience. He thinks Spivac is slower and less athletic, and that Delija can avoid being out-grappled.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Delija's one-dimensional but effective style works well at heavyweight. He points out that Spivak is slow and upright, and that Delija's fast hands and straight punches can catch him. He also mentions that Delija's losses come when he gets hurt, but Spivak is not a big puncher, so Delija should be safe to swarm.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 48 of 119 | 40% | 53 of 124 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 110 of 235 | 46% | 111 of 236 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 17 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 36 of 77 | 46% | 36 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 48 of 119 | 40% | 39 of 109 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 115 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 110 of 235 | 46% | 76 of 196 | 16 of 20 | 18 of 19 | 105 of 225 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 14 of 36 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 27 of 59 | 45% | 12 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 36 of 77 | 46% | 21 of 62 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 47 of 99 | 47% | 43 of 93 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 46 of 95 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)
Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.
Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.
Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.
Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.
The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 109 of 156 | 69% | 110 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 51 of 69 | 73% | 52 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 58 of 87 | 66% | 58 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 109 of 156 | 69% | 48 of 85 | 39 of 49 | 22 of 22 | 105 of 152 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 11 of 44 | 25% | 7 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 51 of 69 | 73% | 19 of 32 | 19 of 24 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 7 of 26 | 26% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 58 of 87 | 66% | 29 of 53 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 55 of 84 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 4 of 18 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)
Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.
Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.
Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.
Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.
Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.
I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.
Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.
The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)
Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.
The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.
Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.
Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 86 of 119 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 6:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 36 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 50 of 76 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 8 of 23 | 34% | 1 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 33 of 49 | 67% | 33 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 27 |
Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.
Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.
Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.
The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Greg Hardy | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Greg Hardy | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Greg Hardy | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Greg Hardy | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Spivac but says he wouldn't bet the fight due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Spivac needs to wrestle early and often, and that Hardy has power but poor grappling. He mentions Spivac had trouble with Oleinik but chalks it up to fear of the ground. He expects Spivac to shoot immediately.
Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by first-round knockout. He is not high on Spivac, noting that Spivac often waits too long to shoot takedowns and has poor striking defense. Brady acknowledges Hardy's power and good takedown defense early, but admits Hardy's ground game is weak. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Spivac gets it to the mat, he wins; if not, Hardy knocks him out. Brady leans toward Hardy because he doubts Spivac's game plan.
Cody does not have a strong lean on this fight. He acknowledges Hardy's early power and finishing ability but notes his cardio and grappling holes. He suggests a live betting opportunity if Spivac takes Hardy down early, but he has no interest in betting the fight outright.
Daniel Levi picks Serghei Spivac via ground and pound TKO. He believes Spivac will take Hardy down and dominate on the ground, as Hardy has nothing off his back and gasses out. He notes that Spivac doesn't like getting hit but should avoid striking exchanges. He criticizes Hardy's mental toughness and cardio, citing the inhaler incident and recent losses.
Spivak is a big heavyweight who should dominate Hardy on the ground. Hardy gasses and gives up when taken down, as seen in the Tai Tuivasa fight. Spivak can take Hardy down, wear on him, and finish with a submission or ground and pound. The line should be closer to -300. Hardy's only chance is an early KO, but Spivak can survive the first round and take over.
Paul sees this as closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest. He notes Hardy's early power and nearly finishing Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, but acknowledges his cardio and grappling deficiencies. Paul thinks Hardy could finish Spivac early, but if not, Spivac will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and leans Hardy as a live underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Greg Hardy as an underdog over Serghei Spivac, despite acknowledging Spivac's grappling advantage. He believes Hardy's explosiveness and power will catch Spivac early, as Spivac is poor on the feet in the first round. He notes Hardy prepared for Aleksei Oleinik and Spivac stepped in on short notice, and that Spivac is coming off a KO loss. He predicts a first-round KO for Hardy.
Tai Tuivasa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 21 of 25 | 84% | 111 of 130 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 2 | 11:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 32 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 42 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 | |
| 3 | Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Louie Sutherland | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 37 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | 13 of 22 | 59% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Louie Sutherland | 21 of 25 | 84% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tai Tuivasa | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Louie Sutherland | 9 of 12 | 75% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Tai Tuivasa | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Louie Sutherland | 7 of 7 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Tai Tuivasa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Louie Sutherland | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The main card opener features a couple of big men in desperate need of a win, in the form of Tuivasa (14-9; 8-9 UFC), who is on a four-fight skid, and Sutherland (10-5; 0-2 UFC), who is winless in two tries in the Octagon. The third man in the cage will be Rich Mitchell. The heavyweights touch gloves, then set up in matchin orthodox stances. Sutherland touches with a calf kick, then another. Sutherland drops levels and rushes forward in search of a takedown. Tuivasa allows himself to be backed up to the fence, where he defends with a front headlock. Sutherland gives up on the takedown and they go back to work on the feet. Sutherland changes levels again and puts Tuivasa on his seat with a double-leg. Tuivasa refuses to concede the takedown, however, scooting on his butt all the way to the fence, grabbing another guillotine and returning to his feet. Tuivasa shucks him off and connects with a flurry of punches on the break. Sutherland is hurt, and Tuivasa nails him with an elbow to the head, followed by a knee. Sutherland grabs hold of Tuivasa and hustles him to the ground with what amounts to a shove, then takes top position. At the midpoint of Round 1, it’s Sutherland on top, dropping short punches and elbows. Tuivasa is working to defend his face and get back to his feet, but Sutherland is heavy on top and very methodical, pulling the Aussie’s base out from under him. Under a minute to go and the Perth crowd grows restive, but Sutherland is plenty active on top, throwing constant punches from half guard. The horn sounds. 10-9 Sutherland.
Round 2
Sutherland lands first with an inside low kick. Tuivasa responds with a leg kick of his own. Sutherland shoots for a takedown but Tuivasa uses an underhook to stand him back up as they collide with the fence. Sutherland re-shoots and gets the takedown. Tuivasa powers to his feet and Sutherland tosses him back down, then follows, landing in side control. Sutherland is heavy on top, dropping short punches to the body while keeping within striking distance of an arm-triangle choke. Sutherland grinds an elbow into Tuivasa’s head. The partisan crowd is chanting “stand ‘em up” despite Sutherland being in side control, but he slides into full mount. Sutherland continues to deliver a steady stream of short punches and elbows while moving back to side control. Tuivasa stands back up with 90 seconds left, but Sutherland drives him back to the ground a moment later. Tuivasa is turtled at the base of the fence, controlling Sutherland’s left hand with both of his own. Sutherland sinks a single hook, moves to Tuivasa’s back and appears to be hunting for a choke. Tuivasa bucks straight into a guilllotine attempt a few seconds before the horn. 10-9 Sutherland.
Round 3
Sutherland is almost certainly up two rounds to none as the heavies come out for Round 3. Both men actually look pretty fresh considering what a grueling fight it’s been, but Sutherland quickly gets another easy takedown. “The Vanilla Gorilla” sets up in side control, and Mitchell is warning him to stay busy. Sutherland is staying busy, as he did in Rounds 1 and 2, throwing a steady stream of strikes while looking to gradually move to an even more dominant position. Tuivasa bucks, scrambles and gets to all fours, where Sutherland moves to back control, but Tuivasa goes to his back and regains half guard. Sutherland is heavy on top, pelting Tuivasa with little right hands, flattening him out and looking to pass his guard. With a minute to go, Mitchell stands them up. Sutherland tries some kind of spin or roll, collides with a Tuivasa knee and falls to his back. Tuivasa pounces and taked top position, hammering Sutherland with a couple of big punches, then nails him with a flagrantly illegal knee to the head while they are grounded. A few seconds later the final horn sounds, while Mitchell instructs the judges to deduct a point from Tuivasa for the foul. 10-8 Sutherland (30-26 Sutherland).
The Official Result
Louie Sutherland def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.
Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.
Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.
Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.
The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.
Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.
The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 42 of 58 | 72% | 56 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 51 of 74 | 68% | 117 of 144 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 19 of 23 | 82% | 51 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 | |
| 2 | Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Tallison Teixeira | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallison Teixeira | 42 of 58 | 72% | 21 of 36 | 10 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 27 of 35 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 6 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 51 of 74 | 68% | 39 of 60 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 47 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tallison Teixeira | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 19 of 23 | 82% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 15 | |
| 2 | Tallison Teixeira | 13 of 18 | 72% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 21 of 31 | 67% | 18 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | |
| 3 | Tallison Teixeira | 27 of 36 | 75% | 17 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 5 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-298), Tuivasa (+240)
Round 1
On the main card of this numbered event, two heavyweights clash having gone 0-6 in their last six outings. Granted, five of those six recent defeats are on the ledger of “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (14-8, 8-8 UFC), but Teixeira (8-1, 1-1 UFC) was also felled his last time out by a man Tuivasa crushed in Derrick Lewis. A winking referee Marc Goddard knows these big men will likely get things done before the judges get involved, steeling himself while they tap gloves together.
Tuivasa comes right after the taller Brazilian, and although he bullies Teixeira to the wall, he quickly finds that Teixeira has a double-leg takedown waiting for him. “Xicao” takes the Aussie right off his feet, and he starts pounding on Tuivasa with his fists. Teixeira changes to elbows, prompting Tuivasa to hurry himself to his knees with his side against the cage so that he does not take strikes to both sides of his head. Teixeira tries to hold “Bam Bam” down, but he cannot, so he settles to knee Tuivasa in the gut. Teixeira uses a body lock to trip out Tuivasa, and he climbs into full mount and starts lashing down with elbows. Tuivasa turns to his side, and Teixeira drills him with a ground strike or two until Tuivasa gets wrist control to stop the pounding. Tuivasa looks to his corner for advice, as the 6-foot-8 Brazilian holds him down in a three-quarter mount position.
Teixeira hacks down with elbows to the top and side of the head, and Tuivasa calmly hangs out on bottom until Teixeira loads up with a few more punches. Teixeira lands an elbow on the back of the head when beating down Tuivasa, who looks unconcerned but otherwise fairly helpless. Teixeira controls with his left arm while clubbing Tuivasa with his right, and he mixes in an elbow or two for good measure. Tuivasa sits up and slugs Teixeira off of him, and he takes a knee on the jaw and goes right after Teixeira. Tuivasa loads up on a big right hand, and Teixeira grapples him in the clinch to stop him from further strikes. Tuivasa imposes his weight on the taller man and gets in a knee or two, and he headbutts the Brazilian under the chin. To the surprise of many, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Round 2
An energized Tuivasa rushes out of his corner, walking through a front kick so he can sling a big right hand. Teixeira uses his long legs to keep the Aussie at bay, and Tuivasa is headhunting while looking for that huge right hand. He partially connects with one, and is met with a Teixeira knee on the way out. Tuivasa ducks a telegraphed spinning back elbow and jabs the body to set up a right upstairs, and elbows Teixeira as well. Teixeira answers with a thudding body kick, so Tuivasa kicks his legs hard. Tuivasa’s kicks are rapidly disrupting the taller man, so Teixeira gives him one or two back to think about. Tuivasa keeps attacking the lead leg, shrugging off a straight right hand to deliver a huge right hand over the top. Teixeira boots Tuivasa upside the head, and he shoots in for a double and bowls “Bam Bam” over. Tuivasa clings to his man while seated up, and he turns the corner as his shorts fall down. Teixeira is able to turn him back around and put him flat on his back, where he delivers a few elbows to Tuivasa before mounting him.
Teixeira uses 12-to-6 elbows when available, and uses heavy chest-to-chest pressure to keep Tuivasa stuck. Tuivasa looks to his corner when controlled and shakes his head in frustration, and he gets flattened out on his stomach. Teixeira pounds on him with his free left hand, and Tuivasa’s slight head movement protects him from a few of the blows but most get through. Tuivasa turns over to get to his back once more, with Teixeira back to mount looking to execute an Ezekiel choke. Tuivasa breaks the choke grip while “Xicao” holds him down and beats on him. Teixeira flirts with a straight armlock but is met with Tuivasa punches from his back until the second round concludes. Fans boo Teixeira heartily.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Round 3
Tuivasa hurries forward to offer a glove touch and start engaging, and he loads up quickly on leg kicks. Tuivasa goes to the body with a left and follows it with a knee, and Teixeira backs him away with a front kick. Tuivasa fakes with his right to open up a strike, and Teixeira answered with a labored takedown attempt that fails miserably. Tuivasa shakes his head at him and loads up on a huge right hand, and Teixeira is feeling it but gets some respite when Tuivasa elects to clinch him. Tuivasa knees the thigh when pressing on the Brazilian, with both fighters likely spent after about 12 minutes of fight thus far. Tuivasa bails on it and starts swinging. Teixeira backs away, stumbling as his balance is starting to betray him, and he nails Tuivasa with two punches coming in. Tuivasa goes for broke with two huge punches, and he hurts Teixeira with them and proceeds to clinch him again. The commentary booth is collectively losing it at Tuivasa’s strategy, seemingly not realizing how exhausted both men are.
Tuivasa slashes his foe in the face with an elbow, and he takes a kick to the liver and puts his hands on his hips. Teixeira does the same, and Tuivasa lumbers towards him and pulls his shorts up, before clinching again. Tuivasa drapes his hands over the top of the cage, and is warned for it, so he starts ripping punches to the body. Tuivasa fights in brief spurts before tying his man up, and he stings Teixeira with a pair of punches and stifles a rough takedown attempt. The color commentators of Daniel Cormier and Michael Bisping are screaming advice to Tuivasa as if they were cornering him, and Tuivasa cannot hear them or does not have the energy to do anything about it. He holds on from on top before working the body a few times, and when Teixeira scrambles, a sweaty Tuivasa slides over the back while swinging as hard as he can. The horrid heavyweight slopfest ends after stunningly going 15 minutes, with both big men needing oxygen tanks after what they produced there.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira but is hesitant due to Tai Tuivasa's weight and layoff concerns. He notes Tai's takedown defense is non-existent and he's on a 5-fight losing skid, while Teixeira is massive and athletic. However, he says if Tai looks good at weigh-ins, he would flip the pick. He emphasizes waiting for weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Tallison Teixeira by first-round knockout, citing Tai Tuivasa's 0-5 skid and lack of activity (1.5 years out). He notes Teixeira is much bigger and longer with power, and Tuivasa may not be taking his career seriously. Brady expects the fight to end in round one with someone getting served brutally.
Cody is leaning toward Tuivasa as a value play, despite his five-fight losing streak and long layoff. He notes that Teixeira has never been out of the first round and was nearly finished by Derrick Lewis. He believes Tuivasa has the power to knock out anyone and that Teixeira's chin is untested. However, he admits it's a risky pick and not one he's confident in.
Connor picks Tuivasa because he believes Teixeira is raw and not ready for this step up, and that Tuivasa's experience and toughness could carry him. He notes that Tuivasa has fought elite heavyweights and can survive early exchanges, while Teixeira has never been past the first round. However, he acknowledges that Tuivasa has not improved and could still lose.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Teixeira due to Tuivasa's poor form and weight issues, but he is not confident because Teixeira is unproven and has shown defensive flaws. He notes that Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and may be out of shape, but he is still dangerous. Vreeland calls it a 'lean' and says the minus 300 price is not a great value.
James picks Teixeira to win by KO, noting Tuivasa's five-fight losing streak and lack of focus on MMA. He believes Teixeira is a better striker with more weapons, though he has defensive flaws. James thinks Teixeira will finish Tuivasa early, possibly in round one, but acknowledges Tuivasa's puncher's chance.
Teixeira is a 6'7 BJJ black belt with knockout power, but he can also grapple. Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and seems half-invested in fighting. Teixeira should look to take the fight to the ground where Tuivasa is susceptible to submissions. The host likes Teixeira by submission at +700, noting Tuivasa's vulnerability to submissions. Teixeira's size and physicality will be too much for the fading Tuivasa.
Paul is siding with Teixeira despite not loving the -370 price. He questions Tuivasa's commitment and conditioning after a long layoff and weight gain. He notes that Teixeira is a big heavyweight with power and that Tuivasa has been quitting in recent fights. He expects a first-round knockout either way but prefers the favorite.
The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa despite being an underdog, citing his power, calf kicks, and experience. He believes Tuivasa can drop Teixeira and finish him in the first round, comparing it to a Stephan Struve performance. He acknowledges Teixeira's elbows but thinks Tuivasa's low kicks will be key.
Zane also picks Tuivasa, arguing that Teixeira is a prospect who has never won a fight outside the first round and that Tuivasa is tough enough to not get finished early. He notes that Tuivasa will keep doing the same thing for three rounds if needed, while Teixeira may fall apart if he doesn't get an early finish. However, he calls the fight pointless and bad matchmaking.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 37 of 126 | 29% | 37 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 91 of 184 | 49% | 92 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 9 of 38 | 23% | 9 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 36 of 69 | 52% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 37 of 126 | 29% | 19 of 92 | 6 of 17 | 12 of 17 | 37 of 124 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 91 of 184 | 49% | 58 of 146 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 | 86 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 9 of 38 | 23% | 1 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 19 of 48 | 39% | 5 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 36 of 69 | 52% | 27 of 57 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 15 of 50 | 30% | 10 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 36 of 67 | 53% | 26 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)
Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.
Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.
Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.
Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.
Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.
The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.
Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)
Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.
Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.
Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.
Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.
The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.
Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.
The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 93 of 143 | 65% | 107 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 51 of 83 | 61% | 53 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 42 of 60 | 70% | 54 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 28 of 67 | 41% | 4 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 93 of 143 | 65% | 65 of 110 | 18 of 21 | 10 of 12 | 72 of 115 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 0 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 16 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 51 of 83 | 61% | 29 of 56 | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 42 of 60 | 70% | 36 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.
Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.
Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.
Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.
Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 2 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-210), Tuivasa (+180)
Round 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta will have his work cut out for him in this heavyweight collision, as Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) combine for 26 knockouts in their 30 wins, with no submissions to either’s credit. The triumphant big man here might be the closest of all the 30 competitors this evening to a title shot, and this potential brawl is preceded by a clap of hands and a hug. Pavlovich moves in to the center of the cage, pushing out jabs, and he lifts his leg to avoid a low kick. The Russian walks forward to throw hands, and he stings Tuivasa with a few punches, only for “Bam Bam” to swing right back and hurt Pavlovich. The power of Pavlovich cannot be denied, as he blasts Tuivasa with ferocious punches, tearing Tuivasa’s skin open with the impact of his fists. Tuivasa hit the ground, and springs back up while blood starts pouring out of the left side of his eye, and Pavlovich’s accurate and straight punches find the mark while Tuivasa swings wildly.
Tuivasa wings a left hand, and Pavlovich tags his man twice and drills an uppercut that knocks the Aussie clear off his feet. When Tuivasa hits the mat on his face, Pavlovich drives home a few academic punches to make sure the job is done, and Tuivasa continues to leak crimson fluid all over the mat while Pavlovich beats on him. Miragliotta intervenes when it is clear that Tuivasa is done here and teetering on the edge of consciousness
, and Pavlovich may have just earned the biggest win of his career and placed himself right in top contendership position. This performance unquestionably sends a message to the rest of the heavyweights that this brick-fisted Russian is a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tai Tuivasa R1 0:54 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa, citing his better leg kicks and chin. He notes both fighters have zero takedowns in the UFC, so it will be a striking match. He thinks Tuivasa's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges heavyweights can end anytime. He won't bet either side but recommends using Monkey Knife Fight's Knockout Kings prop because one of them will get knocked out.
Big Brady picks Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his nine-inch reach advantage, power, and forward pressure. He notes Tuivasa has been knocked out before and Pavlovich has five first-round finishes in the UFC. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Pavlovich lands first.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Tuivasa's durability, power, and ability to weather early storms. He notes Pavlovich has never been tested past the first round and questions his cardio. He sees Tuivasa as a live dog with a legitimate shot.
Daniel Levi leans Pavlovich based on momentum, massive reach advantage (84 inches), and confidence. He acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power and the possibility of an upset, especially if the fight extends past the first round. He is not betting but expects an entertaining stand-up war.
The host leans towards Pavlovich, believing he has more paths to victory, including potentially using takedowns. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus 170, thinking both fighters will respect each other's power and the fight could go into the second or third round. He is cautious about betting heavy on a heavyweight fight due to volatility.
Paul loves Tuivasa at plus money. He notes Pavlovich's low-level competition and questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and power make him live, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He also mentions the under 5 minutes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich despite loving Tai Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa took heavy damage against Cyril Gane and is returning too soon, while Pavlovich has devastating power and a huge reach advantage (84 inches vs 75). He predicts Pavlovich will land a big shot and finish Tuivasa in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 1 | 110 of 168 | 65% | 110 of 168 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 29 of 89 | 32% | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 41 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 1 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 110 of 168 | 65% | 64 of 110 | 30 of 40 | 16 of 18 | 108 of 166 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 29 of 89 | 32% | 17 of 61 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 19 | 26 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 6 of 26 | 23% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 6 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 41 of 65 | 63% | 24 of 43 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 41 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 15 of 40 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 53 of 72 | 73% | 35 of 51 | 16 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 51 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)
Round 1
Depending on how this headliner shakes out, a title shot may loom for one of the victors. While former interim beltholder Gane (10-1, 7-1 UFC) would certainly like another crack at Francis Ngannou, he first has to deal with the surging brawler Tuivasa (14-3, 8-3 UFC), who has won five straight fights by knockout. Gane will need to keep his wits about him, and referee Marc Goddard will too so that he avoids any possible errant blows from the two strikers. The fists are bumped, Gane pats Tuivasa in the face, the cage door is locked, and it’s time for the main event! Tuivasa ignores an early leg kick so that he can try to close the distance and solve the rangy puzzle that is the Frenchman, but he does not throw much. Tuivasa absorbs another low kick, and he fires one back, forcing Gane to awkwardly recoil his own leg. Gane jabs with his foot, and he sits down on a kick to the body with his other leg. Tuivasa stalks Gane down but cannot corner him, although he does get off another leg kick that he turns his hips into. Gane catches “Bam Bam” coming forward with a swatting right hook, disrupting the offense Tuivasa was able to release. Gane comfortably pokes and jabs, and the crowd serenades him with the French National Anthem. Tuivasa starts laughing, and Gane appreciates it and ducks a massive haymaker. A leg kick from the Aussie gets checked, and he swings heavily to close in. Gane blocks most of the strikes, taking one flush, and otherwise keeping his preferred range. The crowd chants loudly for their fighter, and Tuivasa is unable to do much to deflate the crowd. Gane slips a leg kick and releases a body kick. Tuivasa responds, and he just misses an overhand right by a whisker. Gane sticks out a jab and goes after a head kick, and the kick slams into Tuivasa’s guard…he feels it. Tuivasa hand-fights to get in on Gane, and Gane is elusive as he snaps out a front kick. The Aussie lunges with two punches, and Gane skirts out the side and lightly taps his foe’s calf with a kick. The horn sounds to end this sparring match of a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Round 2
The heavyweight headliners touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Tuivasa slaps the thigh with a kick. Gane responds with one to the inner thigh, and he snaps out a jab. As Tuivasa looks to weave forward, Gane splits the guard with another jab, shutting down the offense before it comes. Tuivasa trips his man up as he comes forward, but it is simply that their legs are tangled. “Bam Bam” advances and wings a right hand, and it glances off the dome as Gane moves away from it. Gane front kicks his man and flicks out a jab, with a low but consistent pace that frustrates the brawler. The crowd grows restless as the approach of these two big men, and Tuivasa absorbs their energy by releasing a right hand that slams into Gane’s face. Gane smiles, and the two high-five after the exchange. Gane scores a low kick and a pair of jabs, and Tuivasa follows him along only to walk into a straight left hand. Tuivasa leans back when a high kick is unloaded, and he cuts Gane off with three short left hooks. Gane pushes through the guard with a jab and shoots in for a takedown, but the Aussie is a brick wall and shoves him back. Tuivasa is extremely mad by the exchange, and he winds up with a monster right hand that sends Gane crashing to the mat. Gane crawls to the side, and Tuivasa looks to hop on the side and pound him out. Gane survives and manages to back off, and Tuivasa gives chase and gets clipped with a right hand. Gane targets the body with impunity, kicking the body several times until Tuivasa bends over. Tuivasa is hurt but still dangerous, as swings with all his might, and he manages to crack Gane again. When Gane retreats, he jabs out to the body, and Tuivasa is hurt once more. The crowd is going wild as these two keep hurting one another, and Tuivasa blasts Gane with another overhand right. Gane blinks it out and works the body even more, and Tuivasa signals to the crowd to give it up for them. They do, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Round 3
They touch fists to start off the third round, having spent the last minute recovering and retooling their gameplans. Tuivasa actively attacks the lead leg, and Gane strings together a few punches on Tuivasa’s iron chin. Tuivasa chops at the leg, and Gane kicks the body and may have grazed the cup. Tuivasa complains, but Goddard tells them to keep working, and Tuivasa grabs his cup and shakes it. They resume combat, and Gane measures his man with sharp front kicks as Tuivasa takes a deep breath. Gane loads up on a liver kick, and Tuivasa just watches it land. “Bam Bam” ducks in for a punch to the body, and Gane sticks out several jabs. Tuivasa turns to his side as he misses with a kick, and he sprints back to the fence and bounces off it like a professional wrestler. Gane high-fives him, and he then kicks Tuivasa in the face. Tuivasa eats it like Vegemite on toast and immediately absorbs one more, and he wobbles back. He might be playing possum, as he leans back and winds up an enormous right hand that buzzes Gane’s dome. The Frenchman kicks him two more times right in the head, and Tuivasa is stunned but still swinging everything he has in hopes of catching Gane. Gane keeps tagging Tuivasa with his rangy blows, and Tuivasa shakes his head every so often and loads up on what Quinton Jackson would call “bungalows.” Gane largely avoids them, but he still cannot quite evade every one. Tuivasa marches forward, and Gane smacks him in the face with a standing back fist. As Tuivasa slows, Gane feed his man a steady diet of front kicks to the body, and Tuivasa bends over again in pain but is still on his feet. Gane knows that Tuivasa is fading, and he lets loose with a right hook square on the chin that puts Tuivasa on ice skates.
The Aussie is tough but his consciousness is fading, and Gane unloads a bombardment of five vicious punches including an arcing hammerfist that send Tuivasa crashing down to the canvas. Goddard is about to step in, so “Bon Gamin” makes sure he does by hammering Tuivasa with two devastating punches, putting a cap on a sensational performance after a spectacular fight.
The Accor Arena, which might have already set decibel records in the city tonight, shatters those with raucous cheers and applause for its home country fighter. France ends the night at 5-0 against foreign opponents, with each one making a statement, but none more massive than Gane. The French fighter celebrates with his family, who flood the cage in support of the victor. The triumphant Gane only one has target: the title, which currently sits around the waist of former opponent Francis Ngannou. Even though Ngannou is in the building, he does not enter the cage, as he may not want to take away from Gane’s moment. The crowd is in the palm of Gane’s large hand, and the UFC should know once and for all it has a star on its hands. Next week, the UFC is going to try to cash in on a pair of other stars, and we will be here for it with UFC 279. We hope you are too. Vive la France!
The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Tai Tuivasa R3 4:23 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.
Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.
Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.
Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.
The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.
Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.
The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 31 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Derrick Lewis | 1 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 43 | 62% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 8 of 10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 24 of 36 | 66% | 12 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 14 | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tai Tuivasa | 16 of 24 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Derrick Lewis | 14 of 21 | 66% | 3 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tai Tuivasa | 11 of 19 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A knockout is almost certainly on the menu in this heavyweight clash between beloved big men weighing a total of 531 pounds – one shy of the limit for two men in a UFC cage. Proud Houston native Lewis (26-8, 1 NC; 17-6 UFC) will look to thrill his home crowd, and he will do against willing brawler Tuivasa (13-3, 7-3 UFC). The betting line for this fight going to decision is a massive +425, and a prop for either fighter winning by knockout is -390. Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to stay ready for as long as this fight goes on, preparing himself to intervene at a moment’s notice. Tuivasa may be grinning, but Lewis is the face of intensity; they still do touch gloves. Lewis claims the center of the cage first, as Tuivasa walks around the edge trying to feint his way in. “Bam Bam” reaches out with jabs to the head and body that are well short of the mark, but he does get off a heavy leg kick as Lewis reaches for it. Lewis just misses a looping right hand as Tuivasa crashes forward to clinch up, and the Aussie starts kneeing Lewis’ thighs while pressing him into the wall. The fans begin to react negatively as Tuivasa holds on to this clinch position, with little else besides fence-mashing going on until Miragliotta rather quickly steps in to separate them. Lewis lets go with a head kick, but Tuivasa blocks it right in time. A Lewis flying knee makes Tuivasa back off, and Tuivasa chops down his lead leg to make him slip when Lewis lands. Lewis’ forward momentum shoves the two into the wire, and Lewis changes levels for a single-leg takedown entry. Tuivasa stands him up and elbows him in the face a few times, and Lewis surprises him with an inside trip that shakes the very foundation of the cage itself when they smash into the ground. Lewis starts unloading with brutal right hands, and Tuivasa is hurt but full of determination to stand back up. When the Aussie stands, he throws everything he has back at Lewis, in an effort to start a slugfest. Lewis protects himself from most of them, lands his own, and gets pushed up to the wall. “The Black Beast” hits a throw and drops Tuivasa back to the mat in a surprising display of grappling prowess, but Tuivasa is not settling to stay down. Tuivasa powers his way back up and knees Lewis in the body, and he holds on to the top of the fencing as he knees Lewis in the gut. The round ends in this tight clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off Round 2, and Tuivasa comes out with a big smile on his face. Lewis absorbs a leg kick and just misses with a huge right hand, and he hobbles off after taking the kick but could be playing possum. Lewis loads up with a few powerful punches, stinging Tuivasa and knocking him back all the way from one side of the cage to the other after salvo of punches. Lewis tries to take him down, and Tuivasa remains upright and just misses a knee to the face. They begin to start brawling, with no defense and all power strikes. Tuivasa walks through a flurry, chomps down on his gumshield, and blasts Lewis in the face with a salvo of powerful punches. Lewis takes the brunt of the shots on the chin, and suddenly he is hurt! Tuivasa gets off a blistering elbow in close range, swinging with all his might with a few more punches to follow. Right in Lewis’ face, Tuivasa smashes “The Black Beast” with an elbow that wrecks Lewis. The Houstonian crumples, his knees giving way as he falls face-first to the ground. Miragliotta takes a second to realize that Lewis is out cold, and he jumps in to stop the fight. What an unbelievable knockout for an instant title contender, one who has won five in a row by knockout, but none bigger than this one. Leaping on the cage to celebrate his work in what has become a victory tradition, Tuivasa pours a beer into a shoe and chugs it. The UFC has a star on its hands here.
The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Derrick Lewis R2 1:40 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Tuivasa, believing he is the better striker with leg kicks that can slow down Lewis. He thinks Tuivasa's chin is good enough to absorb one big shot from Lewis. He acknowledges that Lewis is always live for a knockout but expects Tuivasa to chop down the tree with leg kicks.
Big Brady thinks Lewis will win by knockout, as Tuivasa's brawling style plays into Lewis's power. He notes Lewis has been finished by top heavyweights like Gane and JDS, but Tuivasa is not on that level. He expects a first round knockout but admits he can't be too confident in a heavyweight fight. He mentions Lewis's low volume but effective striking.
Cody picks Lewis, citing his proven power and resume against top heavyweights. He notes Tuivasa's wins are over lower-level opponents and that he has been rocked before. He expects Tuivasa to come out aggressive but Lewis to land the cleaner shot and finish him, possibly in the first round.
Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win, but acknowledges the appeal of Tai Tuivasa as a dog. He notes that Lewis has a history of coming back in fights and that his athleticism is underrated. Levi also mentions that Tuivasa is a more talented kickboxer at range and could land low kicks, but Lewis's momentum and power are key. He says he won't talk anyone off a shot of Tuivasa.
Both fighters have knockout power, but Lewis has the hometown advantage and has shown durability. Tuivasa has leg kicks but Lewis only needs one punch. The fight likely ends in the first round. Lewis by first-round KO is the pick, but it's not a lock due to Tuivasa's own power.
Paul expects a wild brawl but leans Lewis due to his experience against top competition and proven power. He notes Tuivasa is still green and has been rocked in fights, while Lewis has fought and beaten elite heavyweights. He thinks Lewis will catch Tuivasa with a more meaningful shot, likely in the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis by first-round KO, citing his power advantage and durability. He expects a back-and-forth slugfest but believes Lewis will land the cleaner shot.
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