Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
Career Averages - Jared Cannonier
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 34 of 73 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 17 | 17 of 21 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 42 of 80 | 52% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 11 | 29 of 38 | 41 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 17 of 28 | 60% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 13 of 28 | 46% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 15 of 35 | 42% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 12 of 24 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.
Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.
Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.
Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.
Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.
Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.
The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.
James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.
This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.
Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.
Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 121 of 162 | 74% | 172 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 48 of 76 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 73 of 86 | 84% | 119 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 121 of 162 | 74% | 110 of 149 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 48 of 75 | 17 of 22 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 48 of 76 | 63% | 38 of 64 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 73 of 86 | 84% | 72 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 19 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.
Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.
Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.
Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.
Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.
Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.
Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.
Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.
Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.
Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.
Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.
Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.
Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.
The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)
Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.
The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.
Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.
Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.
The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.
Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 63 of 108 | 58% | 68 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 77 of 136 | 56% | 78 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 45 of 81 | 55% | 45 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 29 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 63 of 108 | 58% | 39 of 81 | 21 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 57 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 77 of 136 | 56% | 61 of 119 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 70 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 66 | 59% | 25 of 51 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 45 of 81 | 55% | 36 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 24 of 42 | 57% | 14 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 32 of 55 | 58% | 25 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.
Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.
Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.
The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.
Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.
The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 70 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 15 of 36 | 41% | 2 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.
Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.
The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.
Jared Cannonier - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 24 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 29 of 55 | 52% | 19 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.
Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.
Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.
The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.
The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.
Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 2 | 98 of 201 | 48% | 109 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 93 of 221 | 42% | 95 of 225 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 35 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 98 of 201 | 48% | 59 of 157 | 20 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 69 of 161 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 93 of 221 | 42% | 65 of 188 | 21 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 85 of 208 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 22 of 38 | 57% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 72 | 45% | 15 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 68 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 34 of 78 | 43% | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 43 of 87 | 49% | 33 of 76 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 9 of 13 | 69% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.
Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.
Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.
Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.
Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.
Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 83 of 254 | 32% | 83 of 254 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 153 of 255 | 60% | 156 of 258 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 50 of 69 | 72% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 83 of 254 | 32% | 57 of 206 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 24 | 82 of 252 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 255 | 60% | 106 of 197 | 26 of 37 | 21 of 21 | 129 of 224 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 12 of 34 | 35% | 4 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 15 of 32 | 46% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 26 of 70 | 37% | 18 of 53 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 58 | 25% | 14 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 37 of 58 | 63% | 24 of 44 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 50 | 38% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 30 of 53 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 50 of 69 | 72% | 42 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 28 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.
Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.
Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.
JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.
Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 102 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:18 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 82 of 134 | 61% | 106 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 38 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 64 of 109 | 58% | 42 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 82 of 134 | 61% | 61 of 112 | 16 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 64 of 114 | 17 of 19 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 14 of 30 | 46% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 17 of 32 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 28 of 46 | 60% | 19 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nassourdine Imavov | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 21 of 32 | 65% | 18 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 26 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.
Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.
Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.
Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.
Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.
Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.
Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.
The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 153 of 301 | 50% | 154 of 302 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 241 of 411 | 58% | 257 of 428 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 82 of 125 | 65% | 94 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 52 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 50 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 301 | 50% | 117 of 257 | 15 of 21 | 21 of 23 | 148 of 293 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 241 of 411 | 58% | 173 of 339 | 39 of 43 | 29 of 29 | 195 of 354 | 26 of 31 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 38 of 71 | 53% | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 29 of 66 | 43% | 14 of 51 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 24 of 50 | 48% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 82 of 125 | 65% | 62 of 104 | 15 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 58 of 96 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 31 of 50 | 62% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 81 | 60% | 36 of 66 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 70 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 37 of 76 | 48% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 37 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 32 of 57 | 56% | 22 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 23 of 54 | 42% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 82 | 59% | 39 of 72 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vettori (-115), Cannonier (-105)
Round 1
We have reached the final fight of the card, and it is the only one to contain a pair of ranked competitors. Both men have lost to champ Israel Adesanya, so a victory tonight might not be enough to move them to the top of the ladder. In one corner stands Vettori (19-6-1, 9-4-1 UFC), who has never had his chin checked as a pro. In the other is knockout artist Cannonier (16-6, 9-4 UFC), who celebrates a solid 75% finish rate. Whether it lasts five minutes or five rounds, referee Herb Dean is prepped and ready to go. There is an intense glove touch between the two middleweights, and it’s on with the main event. Vettori looks to set up his jab early, and Cannonier walks him down and does the same, except he follows with a calf kick. Vettori sticks out a one-two, and he catches Cannonier with a power left hand that stuns “The Killa Gorilla” unexpectedly. Cannonier defends with his back to the wall and thinks to change levels, and he gathers his thoughts and waves Vettori on for more. Vettori aims a left hand over the top and stings Cannonier again, and Cannonier once more has to retreat to gather his thoughts. Vettori does not give chase or get into a reckless slugfest, instead measuring the former heavyweight with a head kick. Cannonier blocks it in time and steps in with a right hand, and Vettori gets cracked with a right hand that shakes him up. Vettori pays him back with a left hand, and he ducks a swopping punch to sneak a right hand around the guard. Cannonier checks a leg kick and has a left hand bounce off his forehead with little effect. Vettori works the body with a kick, and Cannonier backs him away with a thumping kick to the inside calf. Cannonier keeps his guard up when Vettori throws hands, and he gets off another solid leg kick. Cannonier walks through a jab and rolls with a right hand, and he forces out a jab only to give two right back to his opponent. The Italian flicks out several jabs, and he follows one with a left hand to stagger Cannonier. “The Killa Gorilla” reels and recovers once more, and he kicks at the lead wheel and puts the ball of his foot on Vettori’s sternum twice. Cannonier unloads with a leg kick, only to get knocked back with a pair of punches. Cannonier backs Vettori against the wall and cannot trap him with a barrage, as Vettori instead makes him change his mind with a step-in knee. Cannonier gets in two right hands as Vettori rolls, and he escapes out the side but walks into a right hand that soars at him. Cannonier paws out with three punches that slide off the shoulder, and he eats a one-two shortly thereafter. As Cannonier comes out throwing, the exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Round 2
Cannonier moves right to the center of the cage after second stanza opens, and they trade rangy punches. Cannonier throws a hard low kick, and he walks into a few punches. As Cannonier bears down on Vettori, Vettori escapes out the side and fires off a piston-like straight left hand. Cannonier knows he will take it on the eye, and he does so he can loop a right hand over the guard. Cannonier slips a few punches as he trades with Vettori, and he ends a combo with a leg kick. Cannonier lines up a ferocious straight right hand, and Vettori wears it well but is not enjoying what he gets. Cannonier rails him with another overhand right, and Vettori staggers back and leans against the fence. Vettori clinches up, and Cannonier pushes him off to reset and approach from another angle. Vettori strides forward in effort to counter, and Cannonier kicks his leg out and puts Vettori on his back. Vettori defends from the subsequent ground-and-pound that Cannonier drops on him, and he moves to his knees while still clearly very hurt as his nose is bleeding. Cannonier racks him up with a few body shots and punches over the top, and Vettori succeeds in slowing Cannonier just enough with a combination. Cannonier digs a left to the body and a right to the head, and Vettori is on rubber legs and taking punches right on the chin. Vettori remains upright, and Cannonier is giving it all he has with punches, knees and even short elbows. Vettori blocks several of the strikes but takes many more, and he is hanging in there but taking a beating. Cannonier backs him off and stands Vettori up with a right hand, and Vettori surges forward with a pair of punches to surprise Cannonier. Cannonier slows himself down, and Vettori rushes after him with a one-two. Vettori misses with a left hook, and he dings Cannonier behind the ear with another and reaches the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier
Round 3
A busted up and slightly bloodied Vettori makes it to the third round, and he appears to still be trying to get his wits about him. Vettori leads off with a jab, and he uses several more to decent effect to keep Cannonier from bearing down on him. Vettori sits down on alternating leg kicks, and Cannonier measures a right hand to the midsection. Vettori swings a big left hand, and he springs forward to deliver a right hand off the guard. Cannonier knocks his man back with a power right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Vettori stops it and pushes him away, and he chains a calf kick into a one-two as he appears more recovered 75 seconds into the round. Vettori jumps into throwing an uppercut to the body and he snaps out a jab only to get met with a body kick. Cannonier knocks the mouthpiece sideways with a big right hand, and Vettori gathers it and reaches Cannonier with a right hand. Cannonier lines up a right hand down the middle, and Cannonier drills him with a right that marks up Vettori’s nose. Cannonier walks down his man and lands without fear, and he makes Vettori bend over so he can smack him with uppercuts. Cannonier drags Vettori to the floor and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and Vettori fights his way to his knee and feet while his face is transforming into a bloody visage. Cannonier is relentless, stalking Vettori down and lining up body shots and some others up top. Vettori backs Cannonier off with an elbow, but Cannonier is able to shake it off and pay him back. Cannonier tries to dump his foe to the floor, and Vettori reverses him and puts Cannonier on his seat. “The Killa Gorilla” desperately leaps back to his feet, and he breaks off from the clinch to get back to walking Vettori down. The two middleweights trade jabs, and Cannonier bops Vettori on the nose and finds his chin with two more hooks. Vettori puts two punches on Cannonier to make him reset, and his jab finds its home right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, they meet in the middle and Vettori starts off with a leg kick and a few jabs. Vettori has some bounce back in his step, and he flicks out a few punches and ignores the return fire. Cannonier blocks a head kick and drives Vettori back with an overhand right, and Vettori is able to blink it out and string a pair of punches to the face. Vettori sinks a body kick home, and he slips a Cannonier right hook to put two on Cannonier’s face. Cannonier connects with a solid low kick, and Vettori reaches out with his lead right hook. Vettori again goes high with a kick, and it lands off the guard with a loud thud. Vettori tags Cannonier with straight punches, and Cannonier answers with chopping leg kicks. Cannonier leans back and pounds Vettori in the face with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown to put Vettori down. Vettori powers his way back up, and Cannonier leads him over to the fence in the tie-up. Cannonier cannot keep him, as Vettori squirts out the side and starts flashing his jab again. Vettori counters a leg kick with a left hand, and he leans back as Cannonier throws a haymaker. Vettori walks into a hook to throw two more, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce jab. Vettori gets knocked back with jabs, and a one-two gets Vettori’s attention. The Italian kicks the lead leg, and Cannonier answers him right back and follows suit with a right hook behind the ear. Vettori delivers a kick to the ribs, and he hops away as Cannonier rushes at him with big hands. Cannonier throws hard and misses the mark a few times, and they hand-fight in the open until Cannonier closes in to go after a takedown. Vettori shuts it down and moves back to the middle of the cage, and he gets just out of the way of a home run punch from his opponent. Cannonier cracks Vettori with a right hand, but Vettori’s beard is immeasurable. When Cannonier kicks low, Vettori replies with a one-two, and he concludes the round with a head kick and a straight left.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Round 5
With five minutes left to decide things once and for all, the middleweights do not waste more than a few seconds before engaging. Vettori aims a kick up high, and when Cannonier guards against it, Vettori kicks low. Cannonier makes him think twice about this with a hard right hand, and he eats one back as Vettori starts chattering to him. They trade power punches, and then power kicks, as nothing is off the table in this skirmish. They both pop out jabs, and Vettori wipes his nose and nods. Cannonier smashes his fist into Vettori’s nose, and Vettori is right there answering him back with a combination. Cannonier rings Vettori’s bell with a monstrous right hand, but somehow Vettori is still with it and pushes off with a knee. Cannonier connects with another big right hook, and he clinches up with Vettori in search of a few short strikes on the inside. Vettori pushes him away and absorbs a flush body kick, only to throw a high kick right back Cannonier’s way. Cannonier corners Vettori momentarily with a short salvo of punches, and Vettori again escapes out the side and resets. Cannonier lunges with straight punches, and Vettori jabs him in the face. “The Italian Stallion” does not land his head kick, and he slides away from one power punch but takes a second one. Cannonier hurts his foe with a hellacious pair of punches, and he muscles Vettori down to the floor and hopes to hammer the nail with ground-and-pound. Vettori clings to him, but Cannonier is able to posture up with a minute to go and rain down elbows. Vettori’s face starts spraying blood, and he still has the wherewithal to sit up and fight back to his feet. All the while, Cannonier is punching Vettori on the bloodied nose. Cannonier swings with bad intentions, and Vettori eludes them and catches Cannonier with a big punch of his own. Cannonier tries to hit one final takedown to conclude the match, but Vettori turns him around. The bloody, brutal firefight that likely set striking total records in the 185-pound division wraps up, and “The Italian Stallion” has miraculously made it to the final horn. The two men may very well find a post-fight bonus in their immediate future after that thrilling back-and-forth slugfest. At the tender age of 39, Cannonier may have put forth his finest performance to date, and he asks for either a title shot or a fight that will get him there. When that happens, we will unquestionably be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)
The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.
Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.
Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.
Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.
Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 141 of 310 | 45% | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 152 of 400 | 38% | 157 of 410 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 17 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 33 of 87 | 37% | 34 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 40 of 79 | 50% | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 43 of 111 | 38% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 141 of 310 | 45% | 57 of 187 | 60 of 88 | 24 of 35 | 141 of 310 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 152 of 400 | 38% | 126 of 365 | 24 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 152 of 400 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 16 of 43 | 37% | 3 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 13 of 48 | 27% | 9 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 25 of 58 | 43% | 6 of 28 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 12 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 73 | 38% | 23 of 64 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 69 | 47% | 12 of 40 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 81 | 43% | 28 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 27 of 61 | 44% | 14 of 39 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 33 of 87 | 37% | 29 of 83 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 40 of 79 | 50% | 22 of 54 | 16 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 43 of 111 | 38% | 37 of 102 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-115), Cannonier (-105)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight for the final UFC match of this year, and it might be one with immediate championship implications depending on the result. Coming off his unsuccessful jaunt for the belt, the lead-fisted Cannonier (15-6, 8-6 UFC) is motivated for one last title run and has to get through Strickland (25-4, 12-4 UFC) to do so. On the other hand, Strickland’s last time out saw him get crushed by the current champ Alex Pereira, one in which he promises would be different should they meet again. Herb Dean will serve as the referee for the final UFC fight of the year, and it begins with a smile from the two fighters and an enthusiastic fist bump. The first strike that lands is a leg kick from Cannonier that bounces off the kneecap. Strickland takes notes and measures his jab, pawing it out a few times, and Cannonier bears down on him with two wide punches. Another Cannonier kick makes Strickland pick up the leg to attempt to check it, but he does not block it. Cannonier kicks high and then goes low to the calf again, and this one lands flush. Cannonier fakes an overhand right, and he lands at the end of a second one. Strickland does not bat an eye, reaching with jabs and slapping a kick to the hip. Cannonier steps through two jabs to plant a right hand on the jaw, and he closes in on Strickland as Strickland jabs repeatedly. A pair of oblique kicks land to the knee for Cannonier, and Strickland starts getting in his groove of jabs and short arcing lefts. “The Killa Gorilla” hits air when he launches an overhand right, and Strickland sees it coming and dodges a second. Cannonier plants the ball of his foot on the ribcage, and he backs Strickland up and cannot quite get around the guard or connect cleanly with a kick. Cannonier kicks to the side, and it gets caught. Strickland tosses Cannonier down to the floor, and Cannonier muscles his way back up without staying grounded. They both get back to their feet, and Strickland holds his man from behind while smacking him with right hands. Strickland does not go after a takedown, and he bails on the clinch when Cannonier turns around. Cannonier slowly walks forward, and he fakes with an overhand right and smashes his shin into the calf. Strickland takes a funny step and retreats, and he measures his jab to fluster the advancing Alaskan. A kick from Cannonier careens off the guard, and he fires one off with the other leg to the calf. One more on the inside makes Strickland preemptively pick up his lead leg, possibly showing that the kicks are bothering him. He skates out of the way of an advancing Cannonier, who cannot catch him with a power blow before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start Round 2, and Cannonier delivers a leg kick home to begin. The kicks, and faked kicks, are making Strickland flinch. Cannonier winds up with a kick to the body, and when it gets caught, he is thrown to the mat again. Cannonier somersaults away and gets to his feet before Strickland can bear down on him and grab him, and they resume in the center of the cage. Strickland flashes out several jabs, and Cannonier is more reliant on power punches and kicks. Strickland dances out of the way when a right hand comes his direction, and he times the lunges of “The Killa Gorilla” with sharp jabs. The jab pace from Strickland increases as he sticks it on Cannonier’s face again and again, and he keeps it busy to not let Cannonier crowd him. Cannonier reaches the body with a right hand, and it is one-and-done while Strickland keeps jabbing him. Two heavy leg kicks find their target on the calf, and the second, Strickland swings his leg with it to take some of the sting out of it. Cannonier keeps beating on that left leg, forcing Strickland to start thinking about switching stances. Cannonier swings with all his might and comes up short with a haymaker of a right hand, and Strickland sees it and evades it. Cannonier fires another, and the left to set it up is the one that connects while the overhand right whiffs. Strickland sticks his man with a jab and a right hand, and he splits the guard with repeated jabbing. Cannonier cannot find the spot with his right hand, and they start talking to each other as Cannonier tells his foe to sit still. Cannonier kicks low and punches high, and the first lands while the second misses. “Tarzan” remains composed, swinging from side to side and dodging most of the power strikers while peppering the lunging Cannonier. As if we were shot out of a cannon, Cannonier charges, and his punches would blow back the hair if Strickland had any. Strickland keeps his distance and pops Cannonier with a few more lengthy punches until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
Cannonier flicks his hand out to receive the half-hearted glove touch, and they pick up right where they left off, with Strickland imposing his jab-heavy game plan. Cannonier lightly oblique kicks the knee, and he gets stunned by a piston-like jab from Strickland. Cannonier connects with a solid leg kick, and he jabs to the midsection. Strickland splits the guard with a few more jabs and a push kick as well, and he starts to follow his jabs with slapping right hands on the side of the head. Cannonier kicks the body, and it hits the block without issue. A Cannonier overhand is blocked, and he kicks on the other side suddenly to slip beneath the guard. Strickland continues to fluster the power puncher with his effective jabs, and Cannonier cannot quite bridge the gap to land with his overhand right. “The Killa Gorilla” goes after the lead leg again, and Strickland’s expression has not changed one iota even while battling it out against a heavy striker. Cannonier finds the end of a right hand, and he chains another left hook into a right hand that knocks Strickland back into the wall. Strickland walks it off and continues to pepper with jabs, and he chains four punches together to drive Cannonier back. Cannonier loads up with two power blows, but he misses the mark cleanly by a matter of inches. Settling for a leg kick, Cannonier maintains a relatively high guard to anticipate the jabs that come. Strickland successfully checks a swinging leg kick, and he pecks at Cannonier with punches in small bunches. Cannonier swings for the bleachers and nearly ends up in the stands after missing with his powerful blows, and they begin to start chatting again. Cannonier targets the body with straighter lefts, and Strickland actively jabs comfortably. Cannonier scores at the end of a left hand, and the close round ends. It would not be surprising if judges possibly had it three rounds in favor of either man now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
Between rounds, Strickland’s coach slaps him in the face to get him going, as if Strickland weren’t already dealing with enough strikes coming his way. The top middleweights move into the championship rounds actively throwing hands, and Cannonier continues to press forward while Strickland is comfortable fighting off his back foot with jabs peppering his foe. Strickland gets off a trio of punches and a kick to the body, and he is answered with a leg kick that makes him pick it up ever so briefly. Cannonier walks through a jab to throw, but he does not swing it, just eating punches for nothing. Strickland powerfully checks another kick and plants two punches on the chin, and Cannonier is stalled out in front of his foe who is now starting to walk him down. Cannonier takes three clean punches that sting him, and he shakes it out but does not throw back. The jab has neutralized the offense for the last minute or two, and he connects with a one-two to decent effect. Cannonier sinks in an inside leg kick after a lull in offense, and he wings a heavy blow that glances off the shoulder. Strickland’s footwork and head movement keep him safe from harm when his jab does not keep Cannonier off of him. Strickland gets off a short left hand to drive Cannonier away, and he whips a high kick up and has a front kick graze off the jaw. Cannonier loads up with an overhand right and gets knocked back with a right hand for his handiwork. Cannonier takes a couple jabs on the jaw in an effort to march through then and throw hands, but Strickland sees them coming and moves. Strickland wraps his hands around the guard, and Cannonier finally finds his intended target with a few power punches. Strickland ties him up after absorbing the heavy shots, and he backs up against the wall and smiles. Strickland scores in response, and Cannonier comes at him right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The last round of the last fight of the UFC this year is on, and the coaches are extremely fired up and trying to channel their energy to their fighters, not knowing how the judges are scoring this fight. Cannonier lashes out with a low kick, and Strickland pins a few punches on the chin with a little more heat on them. While jabbing and parrying, Strickland throws a little harder at his opponent. Cannonier jabs the body and hand-fights to find a way in, and he scores a left hand. Strickland staggers him with a few right hands over the top, and Cannonier talks to him and tells him to stand in front of him and trade. Cannonier swings hammers, and Strickland sticks and moves with a double jab and a right hand down the pipe. Cannonier rings his man’s bell with a right hand on the temple, and he snaps the head back with another as Strickland has to blink it out. “Tarzan” recovers and pushes out jabs and a short combo, and he absorbs a low kick on the way back. Cannonier unloads with two big punches that knock the head around, ignoring the jab so that he can connect cleanly. This second land from Cannonier wakes Strickland up, who strings together a lengthy combination as his nose begins to bleed. Strickland gets back into his jab-heavy approach, swatting away the punches that zoom past him. Cannonier sets up a jab and chain a right hand into it, and Strickland is getting marked up as Cannonier is ignoring jabs to strike. Cannonier swings with a back fist that goes wide, and he loads up on a left that breezes past the chin. The final minute begins with a brief brawl, and Cannonier strikes and gets knocked back by the responsive salvo. Strickland walks into a winging left hand and still stays composed sticking out jabs, and he catches an overswinging Cannonier with a few strikes. They both put big power into their strikes, and they throw fire in the form of punches, kicks and anything else they can muster until the bitter end. Neither man goes down, and they have reached the final bell. It truly could go either way. It was a fight. With this event in the books, we have reached the end of the year, with 42 UFC fight cards carrying on across 2022. Our next play-by-play will run on Jan. 14 in what could be a fun Fight Night event with a fantastic co-main event. Thank you for joining us this year on all of the action that the UFC has had to put on. We will be here for the next year, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Sean Strickland via Split Decision (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)
Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, believing he is the more dangerous, stronger, and faster fighter. He thinks Cannonier has a good enough chin to handle Strickland's arm punches but needs to pick up the volume. He notes that if Cannonier lets his hands go, it could be one-sided, but if not, he could get jabbed to death. He considers Strickland overrated.
Big Brady picks Cannonier, liking his power and expecting Strickland to stand and trade. He notes Strickland said he has no game plan and will just walk forward and brawl. He thinks Cannonier will have 25 minutes to land a big shot, especially since Strickland was recently knocked down. He predicts Cannonier wins by knockout, possibly in any round.
Cody picks Strickland, believing he can execute a 25-minute game plan with high volume. He argues Strickland learned from the Pereira loss and can be smarter against Cannonier. He doesn't see Cannonier as an elite finisher like Pereira, so Strickland's durability and volume should earn a decision.
Strickland's style is better suited for Cannonier than for a taller fighter like Alex Pereira. Cannonier's knockout power is overrated due to Strickland's recent KO loss, but Strickland's pressure and volume should wear on Cannonier as the fight goes on. Expect close first two rounds, then Strickland pulls away. Strickland's durability and pace are key.
Paul picks Cannonier because he believes Strickland needs to fight a perfect fight to win, while Cannonier can land a bomb. He notes Cannonier has five-round experience and cardio, and lands more damaging shots. He took Cannonier at plus money, acknowledging it's not a lock but his side.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland, predicting a second-round KO. He believes Strickland is too basic and readable on the feet, and Cannonier will find his chin with hooks over the jab. He notes Cannonier's reach advantage and leg kicks, and compares Strickland's vulnerability to Alex Pereira's striking. He thinks Cannonier is the next best contender after Whittaker and Adesanya, and that Strickland is not elite at middleweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 116 of 230 | 50% | 163 of 277 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 90 of 157 | 57% | 141 of 217 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 35 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 116 of 230 | 50% | 60 of 165 | 26 of 31 | 30 of 34 | 114 of 226 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 90 of 157 | 57% | 36 of 89 | 32 of 40 | 22 of 28 | 78 of 143 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 48 | 45% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 18 of 28 | 64% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 28 of 48 | 58% | 12 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 17 of 36 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 26 | 76% | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.
Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.
Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.
Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.
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