Career Averages - Volkan Oezdemir
Career Averages - Ovince Saint Preux
Volkan Oezdemir - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 35 | 37% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oezdemir (-240); Menifield (+190)
Round 1
With dueling finish rates right at or around 75%, a pair of fist-first light heavyweights meet for the first time despite a litany of experience in the Octagon thus far. “No Time” Oezdemir (20-8, 8-7 UFC) knows there is no time for a loss, as that would drop his promotional record to .500. Menifield (17-5-1, 10-5-1 UFC) is a long way away from that line, and he has put a pair of knockout losses last year in the rear-view mirror with two victories thus far in 2025. Someone’s fortunes will drop at the end of what should be a concussive matchup, one that kicks off in front of referee Marc Goddard with a sporting touch of gloves.
Oezdemir wades towards Menifield, but he ends up getting smacked with a surprise left hook on the entry. Oezdemir backs off to find another way in, and he jabs to set up twos and a body kick. Menifield bounces off the fence to shake it off, and he avoids a swatting right hand while strafing to the side. Oezdemir stays after him with punches that bounce off the guard, and he squares up to drill Menifield in the chest with a knee. Menifield fires back with an overhand right that is out of range, and another vicious knee from “No Time” crashes into Menifield’s chin. The Swiss fighter stands Menifield up with a barrage of fiery fists, knocking Menifield’s head around and putting him in jeopardy. Menifield sways and moves, but Oezdemir’s boxing is relentless and destructive.
Oezdemir stuns Menifield with a left hand and finishes the job with a bevy of brutal blows. Like a puppet that’s had its strings cut, Menifield slumps to his side and is kept upright only because of the fence next to him.
The lights are on, but no one’s home. Goddard recognizes that Menifield is dreaming of his ancestors and halts the fight, and he immediately tends to the wrecked Texan. The “boop” is back.
The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo Menifield R1 1:27 via KO (Knee and Punches)
Angelo leans Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, despite rooting for Menifield. He notes Oezdemir's leg kicks were effective against Carlos Ulberg and could neutralize Menifield's power. Both are similar aging vets with above-average striking and below-average wrestling, but Oezdemir is cleaner and has better cardio. Angelo calls the odds an atrocity and suggests value on Menifield.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by decision, noting his higher level of competition and defensive responsibility. He expects the fight to go the distance and favors Oezdemir's output and experience over Menifield.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir confidently, despite feeling it might be a trap. He notes that Menifield has only beaten green or inexperienced fighters and has poor takedown defense. Volkan has fought higher-level competition and has power. Cody believes Volkan's experience and power will be too much for Menifield, who tends to freeze against power punchers.
Connor picks Oezdemir, noting that Menifield lacks the tools to exploit Oezdemir's weaknesses. He explains that Oezdemir struggles against a good jab or aggressive ground game, but Menifield relies on power and size, which Oezdemir can handle. Connor cites Oezdemir's wins over similar fighters like Johnny Walker and Paul Craig.
Lucrative James picks Volkan Oezdemir but with low confidence, calling it a close fight. He notes Volkan's technical striking and leg kicks, but acknowledges Menifield's athleticism and power. He thinks Volkan will win a decision by doing slightly more on the feet, but admits he may bet on Menifield as an underdog. He also mentions the over/under prop.
Oezdemir has power and can exploit Menifield's durability issues. Menifield is a live underdog with power of his own. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet than the moneyline, as both have knockout potential.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing with Cody. He notes that all metrics point to Volkan, and Menifield's wins are against lower-level opponents. Paul mentions that Menifield has been knocked out quickly by power punchers, and Volkan has the power to do the same.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, citing Oezdemir's experience and takedown defense. He notes Menifield's poor decision-making and believes Oezdemir will out-strike him. He predicts a second-round TKO win for Oezdemir.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oezdemir. He notes that Menifield's best chance is if Oezdemir has a bad night, but Oezdemir's pressure and aggression should overwhelm Menifield. Zane highlights Oezdemir's experience against higher-level competition and Menifield's tendency to lose to fighters who don't respect his power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 96 of 183 | 52% | 96 of 183 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 98 of 204 | 48% | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 96 of 183 | 52% | 51 of 131 | 17 of 24 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 182 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 98 of 204 | 48% | 81 of 182 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 51 | 56% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 24 of 60 | 40% | 18 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 28 of 59 | 47% | 11 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 29 of 60 | 48% | 23 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 39 of 73 | 53% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 45 of 84 | 53% | 40 of 78 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.
Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.
Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.
James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.
Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.
Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.
Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.
Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.
I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.
Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 33 of 126 | 26% | 41 of 136 | 0 of 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 72 of 129 | 55% | 108 of 170 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 47 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 12 of 62 | 19% | 13 of 63 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 126 | 26% | 18 of 102 | 10 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 120 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 72 of 129 | 55% | 45 of 101 | 10 of 11 | 17 of 17 | 50 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 6 | |
| 2 | Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 53 | 30% | 10 of 44 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 27 of 48 | 56% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | |
| 3 | Volkan Oezdemir | 12 of 62 | 19% | 5 of 50 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Paul Craig | 29 of 52 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 |
Angelo picks Volkan Oezdemir, noting his 80% takedown defense and that he has no desire to grapple, unlike Paul Craig's previous opponents. He says Craig's only path is a submission, but Oezdemir will defend takedowns and outstrike him. He also suggests a prop bet on Paul Craig to win inside the distance with 'decision no action' as a safety net.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a 'horrible matchup' for Paul Craig, as Oezdemir has elite takedown defense and no reason to grapple. Oezdemir has a massive striking advantage and power. Craig's path to victory is a Hail Mary submission, but Oezdemir should knock him out early.
Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing that minus 150 is an excellent price. He notes Craig's wins come from opponents making mistakes and that Oezdemir has power and good takedown defense. Cody thinks Craig will shoot early, get stuffed, and then get knocked out. He also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes because Craig either gets finished quickly or submits quickly.
Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Paul Craig, acknowledging that Oezdemir will likely dominate until he gets caught in a submission. He notes that Craig has a knack for pulling off triangle chokes, and his opponents often get carried away and fall into his guard. Levi points out that Oezdemir has looked lost in his last two fights and may not be fully invested. He admits it's a risky pick but believes Craig can find an opportunistic submission again.
Oezdemir has 80% takedown defense and Craig's takedown game is not solid. Oezdemir will keep it standing and find the knockout. Craig's Cinderella run ends here. Oezdemir finishes him in round one or two.
Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir at -150, calling it a good value play. He believes Oezdemir can keep the fight standing and destroy Craig on the feet. Paul notes Craig's wrestling is not special and Oezdemir has good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's magic run will end eventually. Paul also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Paul Craig, despite acknowledging he often picks against Craig and loses. He believes Craig's offensive grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his second fight with Shogun. Craig is training with Tom Aspinall and will mix in takedowns. Oezdemir has power but Craig can pull guard and has submission threats. The Guru expects Craig to get a takedown and dominate on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 76 of 118 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 48 of 102 | 47% | 56 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 66 of 108 | 61% | 43 of 82 | 20 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 59 of 100 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 48 of 102 | 47% | 23 of 67 | 3 of 12 | 22 of 23 | 41 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 27 of 41 | 65% | 18 of 32 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 19 of 34 | 55% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 41 | 63% | 17 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win a close decision. He notes Ankalaev is a good striker with a well-rounded game, but this is a step up in competition. Oezdemir is more hittable and has been finished before. He thinks Ankalaev will slightly edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns. He hates the price tag but believes Ankalaev gets it done.
Cody is fully sold on Ankalaev, calling him a well-rounded package with wrestling, pressure, cardio, and submission game. He thinks Ankalaev could be the best LHW after Jones. He notes Oezdemir has decent takedown defense (80%) but has been inactive (only 2 fights in 2 years) and coming off a knee injury. He expects Ankalaev to pressure, tire Oezdemir, and get takedowns in later rounds.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting his improvement and discipline. He believes Oezdemir hasn't improved and is too basic, relying on hooks and overhands. Daniel thinks Ankalaev will pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. He acknowledges Oezdemir's toughness but sees Ankalaev as the more complete fighter with more ways to win.
Ankalaev is patient and disciplined, with excellent striking defense and takedowns. Oezdemir's volume could be a factor, but Ankalaev can win wherever the fight goes. He likely controls the fight and wins a decision, possibly with a submission if he grapples.
Paul agrees strongly, saying Ankalaev has all the skills and on any given night could become champion. He thinks Ankalaev can beat Jan on his best night. He is not jumping off the Ankalaev train.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. He thinks Ankalaev is more technical on the feet and has great grappling to fall back on. He notes Oezdemir's recent KO loss to Prochazka and long layoff may affect his confidence and aggression. He expects Oezdemir to be hesitant, giving Ankalaev space to work. He predicts a close 29-28 decision for Ankalaev, possibly with Oezdemir winning the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 41 of 92 | 44% | 44 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 83 | 46% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 41 of 92 | 44% | 30 of 76 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 41 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 33 of 73 | 45% | 29 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 83 | 46% | 28 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 39 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 60 | 43% | 23 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.
Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Ovince Saint Preux - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.
Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.
Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.
The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.
Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.
The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 143 of 276 | 51% | 143 of 276 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 106 of 250 | 42% | 106 of 250 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 44 of 79 | 55% | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 29 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 73 of 140 | 52% | 73 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 55 of 113 | 48% | 55 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 143 of 276 | 51% | 98 of 223 | 32 of 39 | 13 of 14 | 131 of 262 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 106 of 250 | 42% | 85 of 213 | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 93 of 235 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 26 of 57 | 45% | 10 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 22 of 57 | 38% | 14 of 37 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 44 of 79 | 55% | 30 of 62 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 44 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 73 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 73 of 140 | 52% | 58 of 123 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 61 of 126 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 55 of 113 | 48% | 46 of 103 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.
Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.
Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.
The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.
Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.
The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 18 of 44 | 40% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 18 of 44 | 40% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lins because OSP is infuriatingly low-volume, often not letting his hands go and throwing one punch at a time. Lins has power, a BJJ black belt, and showed wrestling in his last fight with four takedowns. Angelo believes Lins will win by simply outworking OSP, who doesn't push the pace. He notes the line movement reflects public agreement.
Big Brady is not high on Lins but thinks OSP looks disinterested and has been in terrible fights recently. He notes Lins looked better at light heavyweight in his last fight, while OSP has been knocked out by Tanner Boser. He predicts Lins wins by first-round knockout, but warns against betting the -220 line.
Cody picks Lins but doesn't love the -200. He details OSP's decline: leg injury, weight-cutting issues, missing weight for the first time in his career, and poor performances. He says Lins is a better technical striker and should stand on the outside and out-volume OSP. He notes Lins has wrestling advantage and is younger with fewer fights. However, he says he needs to see weigh-ins because OSP has to make 205 and Lins has been out with injuries. He says he'll pick Lins but won't bet it.
Connor agrees, noting that Lins looked fast and powerful at light heavyweight, with a good boxing game based on straight punches and efficient combinations. He points out that OSP is incredibly passive and will give Lins space to build confidence. Connor also mentions that OSP's recent performances show a lack of confidence and a tendency to back up without offering a counter threat. He sees no reason to pick OSP.
Jacob trusts Lins more than OSP because OSP is comfortable being inactive. He thinks the odds at +200 are a bit disrespectful to OSP, as Lins isn't a dominant wrestler or powerful striker. Jacob expects a boring fight with Lins hanging on OSP's hips and winning a decision. He notes both have been knocked out by Tanner Boser, but Lins is the better overall fighter.
Lins has a grinding style with good forward pressure and clinch work, which should wear down OSP. OSP's cardio and aggression have declined, and he relies on a fading left hook. Lins can close distance, avoid the hook, and win a decision by controlling the cage and landing takedowns.
Paul picks Lins but won't bet it. He notes Lins leaned on wrestling against Prachnio, which could get him in trouble against OSP. He says OSP is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago; he's slow and has slowed down significantly. He says he doesn't see many advantages for OSP and this might be his last fight in the UFC. He says he'll pick Lins but needs to see weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins, but with hesitation. He notes Lins' losses outside the UFC were to Vadim Nemkov, and he had a good PFL career. He criticizes OSP for taking Shogun to a close decision and getting ragdolled by Andre Petroski. He thinks Lins is younger, more motivated, and hungry after many canceled fights, predicting a decision or late second-round TKO.
Zane sees Lins as a confident, aggressive fighter who looked great at light heavyweight, with good boxing and power. He notes that OSP is passive and often relies on a single moment of power to win, but that ability is diminishing with age. Zane believes Lins will be able to walk OSP down and bully him, as OSP tends to back himself into the cage and abandon his guard. He also mentions that Lins is not giving up size and power to OSP, and that OSP's confidence is low.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 54 of 99 | 54% | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 62 of 112 | 55% | 62 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 54 of 99 | 54% | 18 of 53 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 62 of 112 | 55% | 18 of 57 | 36 of 43 | 8 of 12 | 62 of 112 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 4 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 34 | 58% | 4 of 15 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 21 of 33 | 63% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 39 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.
Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.
Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.
The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Boser | 1 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanner Boser | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tanner Boser | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Boser | 33 of 72 | 45% | 10 of 44 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 13 | 31 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 9 of 21 | 42% | 2 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanner Boser | 25 of 53 | 47% | 4 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 12 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 8 of 18 | 44% | 2 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tanner Boser | 8 of 19 | 42% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux, hoping that Boser's forward pressure will bring out volume in OSP. He notes OSP has more ways to win and hits hard, but his issue is low output. Angelo has a moneyline bet on OSP at plus odds. He likes more/more on the strike line.
Big Brady picks Tanner Boser to win by decision, citing his superior striking output (4.21 sig strikes/min) and defense (63%), while OSP has low volume and negative strike differential. He notes OSP's reach advantage but thinks Boser's speed and youth will be key. He worries about judges after Boser's recent close losses but believes Boser should win if he out-lands OSP. He is not confident betting Boser due to judging.
Cody picks Tanner Boser but with low confidence. He notes Boser has lost his last two as a favorite, but those were questionable decisions. He argues Boser has speed and size advantages, and OSP is past his prime, missing weight recently, and looked lethargic. He thinks Boser can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. However, he warns against heavy exposure due to Boser's recent losses and OSP's veteran savvy.
Jacob says he has no idea who will win this fight but hopes OSP wins. He picks OSP with heart rather than logic. He would stay away from both guys in DraftKings.
Boser's leg kick is the main ingredient in his wins, and he should establish it against Saint Preux. OSP's cardio issues will surface after the first round, allowing Boser to take over with bigger strikes. Boser will shuck off desperation takedowns and outstrike OSP over 15 minutes. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Boser. OSP's submission threat is there but his top control and wrestling aren't good enough to keep Boser down.
Paul leans toward Tanner Boser, citing speed advantage and OSP's poor performance at heavyweight. He notes OSP missed weight and is 37, with his best days behind him. However, he is not confident because Boser didn't look great against Latifi and has lost two straight as a favorite. He thinks OSP's path is takedowns, but Boser's takedown defense should hold.
The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by first-round KO, citing OSP's hesitancy and declining chin. He notes Boser's anger from his loss to Ilir Latifi and believes he will come out aggressive. He criticizes OSP's grappling and aging, predicting Boser will land combination punches against the cage and finish him early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 68 of 128 | 53% | 68 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 36 of 72 | 50% | 7 of 36 | 14 of 17 | 15 of 19 | 35 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 68 of 128 | 53% | 39 of 92 | 23 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 62 of 120 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 21 of 41 | 51% | 2 of 17 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 27 of 51 | 52% | 7 of 25 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 15 of 31 | 48% | 5 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 41 of 77 | 53% | 32 of 67 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 35 of 69 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux as an underdog, citing Jamahal Hill's unproven level of competition. He notes Hill's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down multiple times by Darko Stosic. He believes OSP's veteran savvy and submission threat will be the difference, predicting OSP will take Hill down and submit him. He acknowledges OSP has been hurt in fights but only knocked out twice in 39 fights.
Daniel is high on Jamahal Hill, calling him one of the brightest light heavyweight prospects with top-five potential. He highlights Hill's exceptional output and volume, noting he can land over 100 strikes in 15 minutes and has a bantamweight-like pace. He praises Hill's get-up game, having gotten up from all six takedowns against Darko Stosic, and his varied striking including jabs, straight lefts, body shots, and kicks. He believes OSP's sparring partner Douglas Usher, a shorter southpaw, is not ideal preparation for Hill's length and reach. He predicts Hill will either knock out OSP or win a dominant decision via volume, similar to Dominick Reyes' win over OSP.
The host picks Jamahal Hill to win, likely by first or second round KO. He believes Hill's diverse striking and size advantage will be a nightmare matchup for OSP, who struggles against bigger, varied strikers. He notes OSP's age and suspect chin, and that Hill's chin-up style is a concern but OSP's counters may not be as effective. He likes Hill at -165 and thinks the line is getting better.
The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by TKO in the first or second round, noting that Hill's size and explosiveness will be key against OSP. He believes Hill's youth and fast improvement will allow him to get inside and finish, while OSP has not been KO'd recently but is vulnerable. He acknowledges OSP is a good underdog but sticks with Hill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 33 of 80 | 41% | 33 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 33 of 80 | 41% | 12 of 44 | 17 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 19 of 40 | 47% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 42 | 30% | 7 of 25 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 5 of 19 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking up to 205 pounds for the recently rescheduled co-main event, former light heavyweight title challenger and one-off heavyweight St. Preux (24-14, 12-9 UFC) comes to blows with the knockout-minded Menifield (9-1, 2-1 UFC). With a touch of gloves between the two, referee Jason Herzog checks in the contest and it’s on with the show! Menifield races forward with punches and shoots in for a low takedown, but “OSP” shrugs it off and gets Menifield to back off. Menifield lands a hard right hand, and “OSP” responds with a slapping low kick as he plods forward. St. Preux connects with a piercing jab, and Menifield rushes in at him to land some bombs but bounces off the side of his opponent. Menifield crashes in to pursue a body lock, and after stalling out, he backs away. “OSP” lets him have it with a thudding body kick, and he backs away when Menifield tries to counter him. St. Preux winds up with a right hand that nearly makes him topple over, and Menifield slams a right hand into his man’s guard. St. Preux lands a long left hand and backs Menifield away, but “Atomic” comes back at him hard. “OSP” kicks to the body a few more times to halt an advancing Menifield, and he scoots back to let a leg kick ricochet off his shin. A long jab finds its home for St. Preux, and he gets off another body kick as Menifield struggles to find his range. Menifield connects with a right hand that buckles St. Preux’s knees, but he keeps his composure and throws back in the form of some kicks. Menifield lands another left hand, and blocks a sweeping body kick. St. Preux swats him in the face but takes a few power punches as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 St. Preux
Round 2
Menifield opens the round with a big right hand, and “OSP” backs away before getting a kick up. St. Preux nearly falls over with a looping right hand, and Menifield does not take advantage of it but avoids the zooming strike. Menifield lands a low kick and may have hurt his foot as he stumbles backwards, and “OSP” stands before him and slowly walks him down. St. Preux chips away at him with kicks low and high, and Menifield is once more finding himself backing himself away and circling on the cage wall. St. Preux stings him with two more kicks to the body, and he does not stop throwing them. “OSP” ducks away from a punch and lands a kick that may have glanced off the cup, but the action does not pause as Herzog checks on the fighters. “OSP” scores with a right hand, and he has slowed to landing single power strikes while Menifield swings and misses. Menifield loads up with all he has with a booming right hand, and “OSP” is stumbled and possibly hurt as he falls into the fence.
Menifield charges at him after St. Preux gets his bearings, and a short check left hook out of nowhere puts Menifield’s lights out. Menifield crumbles face-first to the ground, and “OSP” stands still to admire his work, knowing there is nothing more he needs to do in the cage tonight. Wakanda Forever.
The Official Result
Ovince St. Preux def. Alonzo Menifield R2 4:07 via KO (Punch)
Big Brady is confident in Menifield, citing his takedown defense (85%) and power. He believes Menifield has worked on his cardio after gassing against Devin Clark and looks in great shape. He thinks OSP is hittable, low volume, and has a questionable chin. He predicts a first-round knockout but says Menifield is live even if it goes past the first round.
Daniel Levi sticks with Ovince Saint Preux despite concerns about a second weight cut in two weeks and a COVID scare. He believes OSP is a much better fighter than Devin Clark, who Menifield lost to, and that OSP's wrestling for MMA is superior. However, he is not confident and expects a close fight that could go three rounds, noting Menifield's power and OSP's tendency to slow down.
The host picks OSP as a +115 underdog, expecting him to survive the first round and then take over. He notes OSP's experience, durability, and submission threat, while Menifield has cardio issues and is one-dimensional. He predicts a second or third round stoppage via ground and pound or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Ovince Saint Preux, arguing that OSP has shown durability and avoids getting KO'd despite a perceived weak chin. He believes Menifield's power is overrated and that OSP will take the fight to the ground and secure a submission (von Flue choke) in the first or second round. He references OSP's recent wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk and Tyson Pedro.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rothwell | 0 | 56 of 110 | 50% | 86 of 142 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:49 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 42 of 82 | 51% | 46 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 1 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Ben Rothwell | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 44 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rothwell | 56 of 110 | 50% | 37 of 89 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 40 of 79 | 14 of 29 | 2 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 42 of 82 | 51% | 27 of 62 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 33 of 70 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rothwell | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 9 of 19 | 47% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ben Rothwell | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 30 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 27 | 48% | 6 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ben Rothwell | 30 of 55 | 54% | 21 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans with Ben Rothwell as an underdog, believing Rothwell's power and chin give him a good chance to knock out Ovince Saint Preux. He thinks OSP will struggle to take Rothwell down and that the fight will stay on the feet, where Rothwell has the advantage. He acknowledges OSP could win a decision if Rothwell fights poorly, but sees a knockout as more likely and considers betting on Rothwell at plus odds.
Daniel Levi picks OSP, citing his athleticism and speed advantage over Rothwell, who has looked slow since his suspension. He notes OSP's suspect chin and cardio at heavyweight, and says he won't bet him at -140 due to those concerns, but still picks him for the win.
The MMA Guru picks Ben Rothwell, noting that OSP is moving up to heavyweight and his chin won't magically improve. He highlights Rothwell's durability, having taken shots from Junior dos Santos and Blagojevich, and believes Rothwell will smother OSP and finish him in the second round. He also points out that OSP is 37 and has been rocked in recent fights.
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