UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Jan 15, 2017 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 43
Height 6' 5"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Walt Harris
3.05 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chase Sherman
6.04 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
6.65 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.09 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Walt Harris - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
TKO (punches) R1 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Walt Harris 0 4 of 10 40% 59 of 71 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Walt Harris 0 4 of 10 40% 59 of 71 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 23 of 40 57% 17 of 33 6 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Walt Harris 4 of 10 40% 2 of 6 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 23 of 40 57% 17 of 33 6 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Walt Harris 4 of 10 40% 2 of 6 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady thinks Tybura is the better fighter with more ways to win, including higher output on the feet and a superior ground game. He notes Harris has 100% finish rate by KO but poor cardio and a weak ground game. He believes Tybura can survive the early storm, take Harris down as he tires, and get a late finish. He predicts a third-round TKO for Tybura.

"i'll go with third round tko for martine tyburo"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, agreeing with Paul. He notes Tybura's momentum and that Harris is hittable and has cardio issues. Cody expects Tybura to use body kicks and takedowns to wear Harris down. He mentions Harris's power is a threat but Tybura's chin has held up recently. Cody also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds -125
"i like the under two and a half rounds minus 125. got my money already"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Daniel picks Tybura despite wanting to see Harris win. He notes that Tybura is in the best point of his career, has more ways to win (takedowns, clinch, grinding), and can mix in wrestling to tire Harris out. Daniel acknowledges Harris's first-round knockout power but believes if Harris doesn't finish early, Tybura will take over with his grappling and pressure. He also mentions that Tybura has been hurt in the first round before but has shown resilience. Daniel hopes he is wrong and would love to see Harris have his moment, but objectively he favors Tybura.

"i gotta go with tybura but i i hope i hope i'm dead wrong on this man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Harris is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Tybura has good body work and grappling. If Tybura survives the first round, he will take over and finish Harris in the second or third.

Tybura round 2 +600, Tybura round 3 +1000, under 2.5 rounds -125
"I'm going taiboro uh uh the props tyburn inside the distance uh tabora round two and round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, noting his recent momentum and wrestling advantage. He expects Tybura to weather Harris's early power, then take over as Harris fades. Paul highlights Tybura's body work and takedowns, similar to the Greg Hardy fight. He acknowledges Harris's one-round KO power but believes Tybura can survive and win.

under 2.5 rounds -125 (already bet)
"i'm going to go with tie board i don't think the line's crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

The Guru picks Marcin Tybura, highlighting Harris's cardio issues shown in losses to Overeem and Volkov. He believes Tybura can survive Harris's early flurries and then take over with grappling as Harris gasses. He predicts Tybura will win by TKO in the second round via ground and pound, noting Tybura has improved defensively after previous KO losses.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i think taibura is going to get this one done by tko in the second round to ground and pound on a gassed out walt harris"
TKO (body kick and punches) R2 1:15 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 45 of 73 61% 45 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Walt Harris 0 16 of 58 27% 16 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 64 60% 39 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Walt Harris 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Walt Harris 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 45 of 73 61% 32 of 59 11 of 11 2 of 3 42 of 69 3 of 4 0 of 0
Walt Harris 16 of 58 27% 7 of 45 5 of 9 4 of 4 16 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 39 of 64 60% 27 of 51 10 of 10 2 of 3 36 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0
Walt Harris 15 of 54 27% 6 of 41 5 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 52 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Walt Harris 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Walt Harris vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
Up to heavyweight, former Bellator champ Volkov (31-8, 5-2 UFC) comes to blows with heavy-handed Harris (13-8, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC). “Drago” posts 20 career knockouts on his ledger, but Harris maintains a 100 percent knockout rate in victory, so this one might not go the distance. Referee Lukasz Bosacki will take the reins on this potential slugfest, but there is a sporting glove touch before they get down to business. Volkov ducks a looping left hand as they both start throwing, and Harris flings a high kick that gets blocked. Volkov walks him down and gets jabbed to the body, and the two heavyweights trade stabbing kicks to the midsection. Harris swings and misses with lethal shots, and Volkov keeps his distance and slaps away a front kick. Harris gets clipped with a straight right as he walks in, and the two clasps hands when trying to find their range. “The Big Ticket” jabs to the body a few times and then throws up another high kick, but Volkov is the one to score with a jab and a left hand that rings Harris’ bell. Harris keeps handfighting and takes a leg kick, but loads up on a big right hand that barely misses. Volkov ducks and moves to return fire, and Harris’ chin holds up. Volkov jab at the body with a kick as he closes the distance, and Harris cracks him with a big right hand. Volkov keeps his composure and walks Harris down, landing strikes and blocking the winging hooks in time. Volkov continues to work front kicks to the body, and he slaps his shin off Harris’ calf. A right hand opens a small cut around Volkov’s right eye, and Harris lets loose a leg kick and a head kick that does not find the target. Volkov stalks him down and evades a left hand, and sees a right hook coming over the top. “Drago” blasts in the body and makes Harris double over, so the Russian charges at him and pours it on to search for a finish. Harris ducks down and tries to slam big hooks in the side of Volkov’s head, attempting to pull off what Scott Smith did to Pete “Drago” Sell with a body shot that led to a knockout. Volkov is wise to it, lets a few bounce off his shoulder, and ends the round with a few more strikes but cannot get the finish he is looking for.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The two big men clap hands to start the round, and Harris fakes a takedown to try to get off a big right hand, but the Russian sees it coming and stops it. Harris backs off and changes levels to pursue a takedown, and Volkov stuffs it without issue. Harris sticks out a few jabs, but Volkov greets him with a much cleaner right hand. Volkov pierces the midsection with a kick, and Harris doubles over in pain – the commentary team questions whether the strike was to the groin but it appeared to land square on the liver. Volkov senses that the finish is around the corner, and he rushes in to swarm him and force a stoppage. As “Drago” clubs Harris in the head and side with four or five punches, Bosacki calls a stop to the fight as Harris is no longer intelligently defending himself. This is an important win for Volkov, who bounces back from a tough loss with an impressive knockout win.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Walt Harris R2 1:15 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady is confident in Alexander Volkov, citing his technical striking, range management, and high output. He notes Harris is dangerous early but has low output and suspect cardio. He predicts a third-round knockout, but acknowledges Harris could win with an early KO.

third round knockout
"i'm pretty confident that alexander volkov is going to get the win i'm going to say third round knockout for volkov here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Volkov as a pure pick, citing his disciplined point-fighting style and height/reach advantage. He notes that Volkov should keep the fight on the outside and win a decision, but he is concerned about Volkov coming in 18 pounds heavier than his last fight (265 lbs), which could affect his movement. He also mentions that as a fan he hopes Harris wins, but stylistically Volkov is the safer pick.

Volkov came in 18 pounds heavier than the Curtis Blaydes fight, which is alarming for a mover; Harris weighed in at 254 lbs, his lightest since the Spitz fight
"my pure pick will be alexander volkov but just as a fan and emotionally i really hope all harris gets this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Alexander Volkov confidently, citing his reach, volume, and cardio advantage. He notes that Walt Harris is a one-round fighter with poor takedown defense and that Volkov will pick him apart from distance. He expects a third-round stoppage.

Volkov by TKO in round 3
"i'm personally i'm going to go with third-round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by late second or third round TKO. He notes that Volkov is more experienced (31-8 vs 13-8), has good takedown defense (shown against Curtis Blaydes), and will use front kicks to gas out Harris. He compares Harris unfavorably to Derrick Lewis, who struggled to land on Volkov for most of their fight.

late second or third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with alexander volkov getting the job done... by late second or third round tko"
TKO (punches) R2 3:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 68 of 85 80% 97 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Walt Harris 1 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 27 of 33 81% 48 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Walt Harris 1 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Alistair Overeem 1 41 of 52 78% 49 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Walt Harris 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 68 of 85 80% 58 of 75 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 60 of 74
Walt Harris 25 of 48 52% 19 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 19 1 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 27 of 33 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 28
Walt Harris 24 of 42 57% 18 of 36 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 18 of 26
2 Alistair Overeem 41 of 52 78% 37 of 48 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 46
Walt Harris 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Walt Harris

Big Brady picks Walt Harris by first-round knockout, citing Overeem's diminished chin and Harris' power. He notes that Overeem is likely the better fighter overall but cannot be trusted due to his chin, which has been knocked out 13 times. He believes Harris will land one shot and finish the fight. He acknowledges that Overeem could win if he takes Harris down, but doubts his wrestling is good enough. He mentions the emotional motivation for Harris after his daughter's passing.

first-round knockout, fight ends inside distance -425, emotional motivation
"I'm gonna go with Walt Harris here... I think it takes one shot to knockout over him and I think Walt Harris has that shot one of the hardest hitters in the heavyweight division so I like Walt Harris to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Walt Harris

Daniel Levi picks Walt Harris via vicious knockout. He believes Harris has turned a corner, putting things together, and has the proper technique and power to put away Overeem. He notes that Overeem is the more skilled fighter but has a small margin for error and is in denial about his recent KO loss. Levi emphasizes that Harris should stay composed and not fight too emotionally.

vicious knockout
"I got Walt Harris via vicious knockout I think he is gonna have that moment I think he will touch the chin of Overeem"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alistair Overeem

The host is torn but ultimately picks Overeem, citing his experience and ability to adjust after the Rozenstruik fight. He believes Overeem will be elusive, avoid Harris's early power, and take the fight to the ground for a TKO. He admits he's rooting for Harris due to his personal story but thinks Overeem's skills and tools will prevail.

Overeem by TKO in the third round
"I think I'm gonna go of Alistair Overeem win him by a second-round TKO I think he's gonna ground and pound Walt Harris"
KO (knee and punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
TKO (knees and punches) R1 0:50 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 6
Serghei Spivac 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 6
Serghei Spivac 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 44 of 93 47% 48 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 24 of 93 25% 26 of 95 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 15 of 36 41% 17 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 13 of 40 32% 14 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Walt Harris 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 7 of 21 33% 8 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
3 Walt Harris 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 4 of 32 12% 4 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 44 of 93 47% 20 of 60 11 of 17 13 of 16 43 of 90 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 24 of 93 25% 13 of 72 11 of 20 0 of 1 21 of 85 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 15 of 36 41% 8 of 25 1 of 4 6 of 7 14 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 13 of 40 32% 8 of 30 5 of 9 0 of 1 10 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 7 of 17 5 of 5 5 of 6 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 7 of 21 33% 2 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Walt Harris 12 of 29 41% 5 of 18 5 of 8 2 of 3 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 4 of 32 12% 3 of 27 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Daniel Spitz
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 1 29 of 79 36% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Daniel Spitz 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 11 of 32 34% 11 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Spitz 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Walt Harris 1 18 of 47 38% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Daniel Spitz 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 29 of 79 36% 19 of 61 6 of 14 4 of 4 18 of 66 2 of 2 9 of 11
Daniel Spitz 17 of 42 40% 1 of 17 5 of 13 11 of 12 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 11 of 32 34% 5 of 21 3 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Spitz 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 4 of 8 3 of 3 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Walt Harris 18 of 47 38% 14 of 40 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 35 1 of 1 9 of 11
Daniel Spitz 10 of 26 38% 1 of 12 1 of 5 8 of 9 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Mark Godbeer
DQ (illegal head kick) R1 4:29 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Godbeer 0 21 of 38 55% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:11
Walt Harris 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Godbeer 0 21 of 38 55% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:11
Walt Harris 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Godbeer 21 of 38 55% 17 of 31 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 15 of 18
Walt Harris 3 of 15 20% 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Godbeer 21 of 38 55% 17 of 31 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 15 of 18
Walt Harris 3 of 15 20% 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman - Fight History
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 70 of 165 42% 85 of 191 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:35
Chase Sherman 0 54 of 158 34% 64 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 19 of 43 44% 34 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:41
Chase Sherman 0 11 of 39 28% 17 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Chase Sherman 0 13 of 56 23% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:31
Chase Sherman 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 70 of 165 42% 53 of 147 6 of 6 11 of 12 65 of 159 2 of 3 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 54 of 158 34% 26 of 124 10 of 15 18 of 19 46 of 148 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 19 of 43 44% 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 11 of 39 28% 6 of 32 0 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 23 of 63 36% 17 of 56 2 of 2 4 of 5 23 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 13 of 56 23% 5 of 47 1 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 28 of 59 47% 22 of 53 2 of 2 4 of 4 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 30 of 63 47% 15 of 45 9 of 11 6 of 7 23 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.

Safe parlay piece
"you need to smash this line you need to smash it it's already not great at minus 400 but Carl Williams should dominate this Bell to Bell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.

inside the distance (submission or TKO)
"I think if Carl Williams does not finished Chase Sherman he will never finish anybody and the rest of his career because this is like a tailor-made matchup for Carl Williams"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.

over 3 takedowns for Williams on PrizePicks
"I gotta go with Williams I mean here's the thing about Chase too though is that like he's not exactly like a power puncher"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.

"I just expect that line to get wider. Frankly. It honestly should."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.

"I think ultimately Carl Williams can be able to implement that takedown game break Sherman late come out here and get a second UFC win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.

"I'm gonna go chase Sherman by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.

Shoei bet (3-1) on Williams if accepted
"I'm gonna say heavyweight volatility for the purpose of this show I'm picking Chase Sherman but I'm a little bit more hesitant a little bit less gung-ho than last time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.

"I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman... I think that Carl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.

"Williams though, doesn't even have to have that fight with him. No, no, he doesn't. He's just going to take him down."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 66 of 177 37% 73 of 187 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Chase Sherman 0 147 of 278 52% 149 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 18 of 50 36% 23 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Chase Sherman 0 71 of 121 58% 73 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 79 34% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chase Sherman 0 47 of 86 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 177 37% 25 of 130 16 of 19 25 of 28 66 of 174 0 of 3 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 147 of 278 52% 124 of 247 17 of 25 6 of 6 142 of 271 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 18 of 50 36% 6 of 36 4 of 5 8 of 9 18 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 29 of 71 40% 19 of 60 6 of 7 4 of 4 27 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 48 43% 8 of 34 6 of 7 7 of 7 21 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 71 of 121 58% 66 of 113 5 of 8 0 of 0 68 of 116 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 79 34% 11 of 60 6 of 7 10 of 12 27 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 47 of 86 54% 39 of 74 6 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Chase Sherman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)

Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman

Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert pick date unknown

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock pick date unknown
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
LOSS vs Jake Collier
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:26 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

No stoppage expected; fight goes to decision.
"i like chase to keep a pace and take a decision here but this is another fight that's super close"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Sherman by knockout
"i'll take sherman by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

"i'll lean towards collier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

"I am also gonna go with jay collier i think that he's got the higher work rate despite what the numbers say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Collier

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Decision bet recommended as sharper than moneyline.
"i'm going to be going jay collier and i'll be taking him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

Collier by decision at +150; live bet Collier after round 1
"this one screams the exact same thing so i got jake caller and beyond that i think there's an opportunity to bet him after the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jake Collier

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.

"i'm leaning jake collier as dumb as it sounds i know the majority of people are picking chase sherman"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 149 of 278 53% 159 of 294 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:19
Chase Sherman 0 117 of 249 46% 121 of 253 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 21 of 56 37% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Parker Porter 0 57 of 105 54% 58 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Chase Sherman 0 51 of 102 50% 52 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Parker Porter 0 71 of 117 60% 71 of 118 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Chase Sherman 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 149 of 278 53% 116 of 243 17 of 17 16 of 18 141 of 270 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 117 of 249 46% 69 of 199 15 of 17 33 of 33 115 of 247 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 8 19 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 29 of 59 49% 20 of 50 1 of 1 8 of 8 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 57 of 105 54% 48 of 96 6 of 6 3 of 3 55 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 51 of 102 50% 27 of 77 11 of 12 13 of 13 50 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 71 of 117 60% 54 of 100 10 of 10 7 of 7 67 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 37 of 88 42% 22 of 72 3 of 4 12 of 12 36 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"i like chase sherman here quite a bit i don't really think parker porter is ufc caliber"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

"i think chase has a massive athleticism advantage in this spot i think he's going to really uh go on to those uh the the light kicks are going to be key to him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

over 1.5 rounds (-165); Porter by decision (+425)
"i like porter here quarterback decision laugh at me all you want but i think he has the chops to go out there and uh definitely not look like a plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-165); fight goes the distance (+155)
"i honestly see the fight going over one and a half minus 165 and i think fight goes the distance at plus 155 sounds crazy not crazy at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

TKO by elbows against the cage
"i'm gonna go chase sherman good cardio he's a massive guy for the heavyweight division much bigger than parker porter"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 105 of 222 47% 109 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 88 of 192 45% 99 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 69 46% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 21 of 58 36% 32 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 46 of 88 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 34 of 65 52% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 105 of 222 47% 54 of 154 26 of 39 25 of 29 103 of 217 2 of 5 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 88 of 192 45% 55 of 154 16 of 20 17 of 18 84 of 187 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 27 of 65 41% 15 of 51 4 of 6 8 of 8 25 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 33 of 69 47% 22 of 55 6 of 8 5 of 6 31 of 66 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 47 10 of 12 6 of 10 32 of 68 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 21 of 58 36% 12 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 46 of 88 52% 23 of 56 12 of 21 11 of 11 46 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 34 of 65 52% 21 of 50 6 of 8 7 of 7 33 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

"i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

"chase german is a plus 105 underdog and to be quite honest i'm kind of feeling the same thing it's a dodger path type fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

"i'm going to lean arlowski i think he's the better fighter here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Sherman by KO +255; under 2.5 rounds +135
"i think chase sherman could go out there and beat up that front leg of uh andre arlovski and really start to go to work with his hands"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

"friends don't let friends bet on chase sherman cody all right let's move on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to go with olofsky here against chase sherman"
TKO (elbow and punches) R2 0:49 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 1 51 of 87 58% 51 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 51 of 87 58% 27 of 57 13 of 15 11 of 15 46 of 80 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 16 of 54 29% 13 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 39 of 69 56% 17 of 42 13 of 15 9 of 12 39 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 14 of 48 29% 11 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 12 of 18 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 11 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.

Sherman wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm gonna go with Sherman second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.

"I'll lean with Sherman for that reason but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if the newcomer comes out here and knocks him out either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go chase Sherman... by second round or first round TKO once Villanueva gets rid of his initial burst of juice."