Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
Career Averages - Joanne Wood
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 90 of 287 | 31% | 97 of 297 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 107 of 213 | 50% | 119 of 226 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 83 | 21% | 18 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 15 of 63 | 23% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 57 of 141 | 40% | 57 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 90 of 287 | 31% | 58 of 242 | 21 of 31 | 11 of 14 | 87 of 279 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 107 of 213 | 50% | 91 of 195 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 94 of 195 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 83 | 21% | 13 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 71 | 56% | 31 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 15 of 63 | 23% | 11 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 57 of 141 | 40% | 34 of 112 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 56 of 137 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 36 of 92 | 39% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 85 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.
The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.
The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)
Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.
The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.
Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.
The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.
The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 50 of 140 | 35% | 62 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 117 of 208 | 56% | 119 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 33 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 50 of 140 | 35% | 33 of 114 | 13 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 136 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 117 of 208 | 56% | 67 of 151 | 38 of 45 | 12 of 12 | 106 of 197 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 74 | 44% | 14 of 53 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 37 of 69 | 53% | 20 of 47 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 64 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 47 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 47 of 65 | 72% | 33 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.
Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.
Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.
Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.
Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 | 53 of 107 | 49% | 53 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 49 of 114 | 42% | 50 of 115 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 3 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 53 of 107 | 49% | 27 of 76 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 22 | 43 of 90 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 49 of 114 | 42% | 38 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 27 of 50 | 54% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 18 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 57 | 42% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 57 | 45% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 25 of 57 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.
Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.
James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.
Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 49 | 46% | 3 of 20 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.
Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.
Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.
James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.
Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.
Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.
The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 53 of 143 | 37% | 56 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 51 of 120 | 42% | 53 of 124 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 40 of 106 | 37% | 43 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 46 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 53 of 143 | 37% | 28 of 107 | 5 of 16 | 20 of 20 | 50 of 137 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 51 of 120 | 42% | 38 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 50 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 40 of 106 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 4 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 37 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 44 of 100 | 44% | 32 of 86 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 13 of 37 | 35% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.
Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.
Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.
Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.
Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.
Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.
Joanne Wood - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 136 of 249 | 54% | 173 of 290 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 102 of 195 | 52% | 156 of 255 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 50 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 58 of 109 | 53% | 75 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 45 of 81 | 55% | 52 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 74 of 131 | 56% | 77 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Maryna Moroz | 0 | 52 of 107 | 48% | 54 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 136 of 249 | 54% | 74 of 175 | 39 of 45 | 23 of 29 | 112 of 216 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 2 |
| Maryna Moroz | 102 of 195 | 52% | 79 of 160 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 79 of 169 | 19 of 22 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Maryna Moroz | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 58 of 109 | 53% | 30 of 76 | 21 of 24 | 7 of 9 | 45 of 90 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Maryna Moroz | 45 of 81 | 55% | 34 of 67 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 67 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 74 of 131 | 56% | 42 of 95 | 17 of 19 | 15 of 17 | 64 of 118 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 |
| Maryna Moroz | 52 of 107 | 48% | 41 of 87 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 44 of 99 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Joanne Wood as a dog, noting she is a technical striker with solid fight IQ and has only lost to ranked fighters. He thinks she can grind out a decision by getting the fight to the cage. He is wary of her age (38) and slowing down, but believes the odds on Moroz are too wide given Wood's experience.
Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz to win by second-round submission. He notes that Moroz has improved her wrestling and striking since her debut, and that Joanne Wood has been submitted five times in her career, including by Moroz in their first fight. He believes Moroz can get the fight to the mat and tap Wood out, though he acknowledges that Moroz doesn't wrestle often.
Cody thinks Wood is being undervalued as a +190 underdog. He notes that Moroz has poor striking volume and has been taken down in recent fights, while Wood has good volume, clinch work, and takedowns. He expects Wood to win a close decision.
Daniel picks Moroz but has no confidence. He notes Moroz has good takedowns and if she uses them, she will win. However, she has not attempted takedowns in her last two fights. If it becomes a standup fight, it could go to a split decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Moroz is a solid striker but does her best work when she implements a grapple-heavy approach, controlling from top position and doing damage. She was successful in their first meeting via armbar submission. However, Moroz has been inconsistent and the -225 line is a bit wide for me to trust completely. If she is dialed in and uses her grappling, she should overwhelm the aging Joanne Wood. I expect Moroz to push the pace, drag the fight to the ground, and win by decision.
Paul initially leans toward Moroz by submission, noting she submitted Wood in their first fight. However, he acknowledges that Wood has improved her wrestling and that Moroz's recent form is poor. He ultimately passes on betting but notes the submission prop has moved from +400 to +220.
The MMA Guru acknowledges this is a tricky fight, noting that Joanne Calderwood has a skill advantage on the feet but is 38 years old. He believes Maryna Moroz's grappling and takedown ability will be the deciding factor, as she is younger and can implement takedowns to sway close rounds. He expresses hesitation but ultimately sides with Moroz due to her grappling edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 131 of 228 | 57% | 177 of 278 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 100 of 199 | 50% | 123 of 222 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 42 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 56 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 60 of 106 | 56% | 66 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 38 of 81 | 46% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 131 of 228 | 57% | 61 of 142 | 46 of 53 | 24 of 33 | 84 of 177 | 46 of 50 | 1 of 1 |
| Luana Carolina | 100 of 199 | 50% | 55 of 144 | 34 of 40 | 11 of 15 | 75 of 165 | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 38 of 62 | 61% | 13 of 32 | 17 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 42 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 38 of 65 | 58% | 15 of 38 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 50 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 33 of 60 | 55% | 16 of 39 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 48 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Luana Carolina | 24 of 53 | 45% | 14 of 40 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 60 of 106 | 56% | 32 of 71 | 21 of 23 | 7 of 12 | 43 of 87 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 38 of 81 | 46% | 26 of 66 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 32 of 71 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Joanne Wood should win because she is better everywhere and has faced elite competition. He notes her losses are to champions and title contenders. He placed a half-unit bet on her at -150 three weeks ago and got good closing value. He is concerned about Wood's motivation and age but still expects her to win.
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood but with low confidence, noting she has looked like she doesn't want to be there recently. He acknowledges Wood's losses are to elite competition, and she should win this fight due to volume striking and Carolina's lack of takedowns. However, he is scared by Wood's recent performances and will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Wood reluctantly, noting her experience and technical Muay Thai. He thinks Carolina's takedown defense is poor and Wood can take her down if needed. He acknowledges Wood's durability and motivation are questions at 37, but believes Carolina is there to be beaten. He says he's likely screwed betting women's MMA but picks Wood.
Connor picks Wood but is very hesitant, acknowledging her recent mental and physical decline. He believes she should win against a fighter as limited as Carolina, but he doubts Wood's current mindset. He notes that Wood has never been knocked out and has the tools to win if she fights on the front foot.
Jacob sees this as a very close fight and is staying away. He thinks both fighters have similar styles and it will likely go to a split decision. He notes Luana Carolina could come on strong late and that Joanne Wood's motivation is questionable. He might bet on a split decision prop but is not picking a winner.
Wood is on a three-fight losing streak but those losses came against top competition (Santos, Grasso). She is a solid striker with good footwork, output, and elbows. Carolina is a decent striker but her wins are questionable and she was knocked out by Molly McCann. Wood should be the better technical striker and outwork Carolina over three rounds, possibly mixing in elbows. Carolina's takedowns are not expected to be a threat.
Paul picks Wood, but his favorite prop is over 63.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks. He thinks the fight goes 15 minutes and Wood lands well over that number. He says Wood by decision is likely but the moneyline is better than the decision prop. He notes Wood's recent losses were to elite competition and she should handle Carolina.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood over Luana Carolina, calling it a 'no-brainer' despite the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Wood has lost only to top competition like Grasso, Santos, and Murphy, while Carolina lost to Molly McCann who is not elite. He acknowledges Wood's jiu-jitsu vulnerabilities but believes her striking and experience will carry her to a decision win.
Zane picks Carolina as a gut pick, citing Wood's psychological fragility. He notes that Wood has looked increasingly flinchy and prone to giving up, while Carolina is scrappy and has shown resilience. Zane believes Carolina's pressure and clinch work could break Wood's will, even though Carolina is technically inferior.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 49 | 69% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 50 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 49 | 69% | 61 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 50 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 34 of 49 | 69% | 22 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Joanne Wood | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 49 | 69% | 22 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Joanne Wood | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Joanne Wood as a pretty big underdog. He thinks the books are not giving her enough credit. He notes that while Alexa Grasso is undefeated at 125, Wood has only fought top competition and is incredibly well-rounded. He believes Grasso cannot bully or knock out Wood like her previous opponents did.
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Wood has excellent volume (6.71 significant strikes per minute) and can mix in takedowns, while Grasso has poor takedown defense (60%) and has been taken down by wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza. He notes that Wood's last loss was to Talia Santos, who is a beast, and that Wood looked good before that, including a win over Jessica Eye. He admits Wood might be washed but thinks the line is off.
Cody leans Grasso but acknowledges Wood's volume striking and durability. He notes Wood's technical boxing is poor and she gets hit clean, while Grasso lands sharper shots. He mentions Wood's recent losses and age, but thinks the fight could be close. He expects Grasso to win but not confidently.
Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her improvement since moving up to flyweight, faster hands, and growing confidence. He notes Joanne Wood is hot-and-cold and may have mentally checked out after losing her title shot. He expects Grasso to win but cautions that the line at -235 is steep, and the fight could be a close decision due to poor judging. He suggests betting Grasso only if under -200.
The host picks Grasso but is not confident, citing her lack of finishing ability and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Wood's volume could sway judges if Grasso doesn't land significant strikes. He prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop over the moneyline.
Paul picks Grasso but doesn't love the price. He thinks Wood's volume striking and front kicks could cause problems, but Grasso has improved her grappling and is younger. He sees the fight as close and competitive, possibly a split decision. He wouldn't fault someone for taking Wood as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso over Joanne Wood, calling Grasso a much better boxer with superior hands, defense, footwork, and chin at this stage. He notes Wood's recent KO loss and quick turnaround, and believes Grasso will get a submission win, possibly a d'arce choke, after hurting Wood on the feet. The Guru acknowledges Wood's volume could be a factor but trusts Grasso's technical edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taila Santos | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 2 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taila Santos | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 2 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taila Santos | 27 of 68 | 39% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 16 of 25 | 26 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 30 of 60 | 50% | 21 of 46 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taila Santos | 27 of 68 | 39% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 16 of 25 | 26 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 30 of 60 | 50% | 21 of 46 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Angelo picks Taila Santos, saying she is better than Joanne Wood everywhere. He notes Taila's power, athleticism, and willingness to mix in takedowns, while Wood is technical but less powerful. He expects Taila to cruise to a decision win, though Wood is tough and could make it competitive. He does not bet due to high DraftKings price (9200) and expects a decision.
Big Brady picks Taila Santos confidently, stating the line is accurate and could be wider. He highlights Santos' phenomenal wrestling and grappling, noting she controlled top grapplers like Jillian Robertson and Roxy Modafferi for long periods. He points out Joanne Wood's 63% takedown defense and age (35), and believes Santos will dominate with takedowns and control. He predicts a one-sided decision.
Cody picks Taila Santos but strongly dislikes the -380 price. He acknowledges Santos's wrestling and grinding style should neutralize Wood's Muay Thai, but he questions the level of competition Santos has faced. He notes that Wood has fought the division's best and has better striking volume. Cody believes Santos wins via grinding against the cage and takedowns, but he would not bet her straight up at that price; he might include her in parlays lower down.
Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos confidently, citing her recent improvements and physicality. He notes that Santos has been looking better each fight, with strong muay Thai and takedown ability. He questions Joanne Wood's mental state, suggesting she may not be fully committed after getting married. Levi believes Santos will be stronger, more physical, and hungrier, and that Wood has a history of being broken mentally.
Lock is high on Santos, noting she looked much better in her second UFC fight. He thinks Santos has a grappling advantage and will land takedowns consistently. He also mentions Wood's distractions (recent marriage, talk of retirement) and that she struggles off her back. Lock expects Santos to win by decision at -135.
Paul argues that if you think Santos will win, the price shouldn't scare you off. He believes Santos's wrestling and strength advantage will allow her to grind Wood against the cage and render her Muay Thai useless. He thinks Santos wins at least 6-7 out of 10 times, which justifies the -380 line. He criticizes the mentality of flipping a pick based on odds and sticks with Santos as the winner.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood as an underdog over Taila Santos. He argues that Santos's stand-up is not great and she hasn't dominated on the ground against top competition. He highlights Wood's experience against top flyweights, including wins over Lauren Murphy and Andrea Lee, and argues she was robbed in some losses. He expects Wood to outland Santos on the feet and win by unanimous decision (30-27).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 80 of 148 | 54% | 121 of 195 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 123 of 228 | 53% | 153 of 259 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 55 of 97 | 56% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 35 of 69 | 50% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 59 of 114 | 51% | 63 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 80 of 148 | 54% | 66 of 131 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 55 of 119 | 10 of 13 | 15 of 16 |
| Joanne Wood | 123 of 228 | 53% | 62 of 137 | 30 of 41 | 31 of 50 | 99 of 201 | 23 of 25 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 29 of 57 | 50% | 25 of 51 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 55 of 97 | 56% | 22 of 50 | 16 of 22 | 17 of 25 | 43 of 85 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 16 of 22 | 72% | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 16 |
| Joanne Wood | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 35 of 69 | 50% | 27 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 61 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 59 of 114 | 51% | 36 of 78 | 13 of 16 | 10 of 20 | 48 of 101 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.
Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.
Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.
Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.
Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 77 of 173 | 44% | 104 of 218 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 5:03 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 148 of 240 | 61% | 214 of 319 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 48 of 81 | 59% | 69 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 37 of 87 | 42% | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 65 of 113 | 57% | 81 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Jessica Eye | 0 | 35 of 46 | 76% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 77 of 173 | 44% | 39 of 127 | 35 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 44 of 132 | 32 of 40 | 1 of 1 |
| Jessica Eye | 148 of 240 | 61% | 52 of 122 | 53 of 62 | 43 of 56 | 113 of 198 | 35 of 42 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 30 of 56 | 53% | 16 of 41 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 37 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 48 of 81 | 59% | 18 of 43 | 16 of 20 | 14 of 18 | 37 of 65 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 37 of 87 | 42% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 73 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Jessica Eye | 65 of 113 | 57% | 22 of 59 | 24 of 28 | 19 of 26 | 53 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 10 of 30 | 33% | 2 of 19 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 22 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Eye | 35 of 46 | 76% | 12 of 20 | 13 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 23 of 34 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) by decision, citing her high output (6.17 significant strikes per minute) and takedown ability. He is hesitant because Wood lost her last fight via submission, and he is not betting on her. He expects a close decision and thinks the fight likely goes to decision.
Daniel Levi picks Jessica Eye, citing her superior resume with wins over top competition like Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo. He criticizes Joanne Wood for folding in big fights and being mentally fragile. Levi believes Eye's athleticism and health improvements will lead to a win, possibly by decision.
This is a close fight between two mid-tier flyweights. Eye has good boxing and combinations, and she is not afraid to trade. Wood has volume but lacks power. Eye's durability and willingness to exchange should give her an edge. I think Eye lands the more significant strikes and wins a close decision. At plus money, there is value.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) to win a close decision, expecting a stand-up fight. He believes Wood's kicking game will be the difference against Jessica Eye's boxing-oriented style. He notes that both fighters are past their prime but gives Wood the edge due to her variety of kicks (leg kicks, knees, head kicks). He does not see either fighter going to the ground and predicts Wood edges every round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 26 of 49 | 53% | 6 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 15 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Joanne Wood | 20 of 37 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 26 of 49 | 53% | 6 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 15 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Joanne Wood | 20 of 37 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) to win by decision. He thinks she is the better overall fighter with higher volume striking and improved ground game. He notes that her striking should be sharp because she was preparing to fight Valentina Shevchenko. However, he expresses caution due to recent poor luck betting on women's MMA fights.
Daniel picks Joanne Wood, citing her higher output and well-roundedness. He notes that she doesn't have to worry about takedown threats from Maia and should outland her with kicks and volume. He expects a decision win.
The host picks Joanne Wood, citing her evolution in mixing wrestling with striking, and notes that Jennifer Maia has poor get-up game when taken down, as seen in the Alexis Davis fight. He believes Wood will take Maia down and grind out a decision, despite Maia having a slight edge in pure Muay Thai. He also mentions Wood's training at Syndicate MMA and her motivation for a title shot.
The host picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) but expresses hesitation, noting that neither fighter has beaten elite competition. He believes Calderwood is bigger, stronger, and rangier for the division, and can keep the fight standing where she has a range advantage. He acknowledges the lack of clear evidence but goes with Calderwood due to her physical advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 101 of 230 | 43% | 158 of 293 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 61 of 137 | 44% | 104 of 185 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 41 of 92 | 44% | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 54 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 36 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 36 of 80 | 45% | 60 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 101 of 230 | 43% | 40 of 138 | 16 of 38 | 45 of 54 | 94 of 222 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 61 of 137 | 44% | 13 of 73 | 26 of 39 | 22 of 25 | 57 of 132 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 41 of 92 | 44% | 13 of 51 | 8 of 18 | 20 of 23 | 40 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 32 of 71 | 45% | 6 of 36 | 15 of 22 | 11 of 13 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 24 of 58 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 1 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 33 | 51% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 36 of 80 | 45% | 14 of 47 | 7 of 13 | 15 of 20 | 34 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 12 of 33 | 36% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Loopy by finish as I put my clown makeup on