The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · Dec 12, 2014 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 1"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
2.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.28 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rose Namajunas
3.5 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
1.47 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:05 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 6 of 32 18% 19 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:55
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 78 47% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 5 of 27 18% 18 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:53
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 65 50% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carla Esparza 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 6 of 32 18% 6 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 37 of 78 47% 20 of 58 8 of 9 9 of 11 24 of 63 0 of 0 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 5 of 27 18% 5 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 33 of 65 50% 19 of 48 6 of 7 8 of 10 20 of 50 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Zhang Weili 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

"I expect Whaley to win this fight she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Zhang Weili inside the distance; finish by TKO/corner stoppage/cut
"I think Zhang Whaley beats the crap out of Esparza I think Zhang Willy finishes as far as at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance for safety
"I can probably will skip the money line at minus 335... inside the distance for Zhang Wei Lee is like a Peckham price right now so that's where my my money's gonna end up in the co-main event."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

Predicts a finish (KO/TKO or submission); odds mentioned: Weili -350, Esparza +290 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with Wiley Zhang to finish Carlos Esparza I mean that's what I kind of see happening"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Zhang inside the distance, under 4.5 rounds (+100)
"I do think that Zhang inside the distance is probably the best bet in this matchup taking her to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance
"I actually agree with you 100... I got that TKO prop... take the inside the distance it's like there's minus one tens out there the best I see is plus 120 on the chaos let's decal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

first round TKO
"you kind of have to go Zhang Wei Lee here"
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 5 of 11 45% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 27 of 33 81% 170 of 194 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 2 of 5 40% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 13 of 15 86% 104 of 117 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:52
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 18 77% 66 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Yan Xiaonan 27 of 33 81% 27 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Yan Xiaonan 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 18 77% 14 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Yan by close decision; would bet Yan if underdog
"i'm going to side with yon to get it done by a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

no bet, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i trust the the line movement that we've seen from the plus 150 to the plus 100 i think this is you know closer to a peckham type of fight and esparza will be my pick no bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

unanimous decision, possibly late TKO
"i think that yan zhaonan's distance game is gonna really frustrate her i think she's gonna stick to the boxing in the hands and i think carla esparza is gonna be taking some shots from really far out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Carla Esparza by decision (+168), Carla Esparza by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"i have to go against my heart and i gotta pick carla esparza to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

pass, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i think that with yon it's like she probably just stuffs more of these takedowns than not keeps the fight standing lands the more impactful shots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.

"i'm going to go with yan zhao nan i think she's going to be too good at take down defense"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 60 55% 118 of 152 5 of 9 55% 1 0 8:54
Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 76 52% 91 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 49 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:21
Marina Rodriguez 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
2 Carla Esparza 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 47 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:28
Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 29 48% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 29 62% 37 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 6 of 14 42% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 28 of 43
Marina Rodriguez 40 of 76 52% 34 of 70 0 of 0 6 of 6 15 of 38 0 of 1 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 12
Marina Rodriguez 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 25
2 Carla Esparza 7 of 19 36% 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11
Marina Rodriguez 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 5 8 of 18 0 of 1 6 of 10
3 Carla Esparza 18 of 29 62% 15 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 20
Marina Rodriguez 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.

Rodriguez by third round knockout; placed bet at -160
"I like rodriguez um as at the line here minus 180. um I'll tell you guys right now I did place a bet on this fight I got our minus 160 though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.

"i think she's ready for this big test i think she's going to come out here and pass it so i'm going marina rodriguez to get the biggest win of her career over the former former champion esparza"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.

Esparza by decision (+145)
"i gotta side with the dog here you know this fight should be lined a little bit closer"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to be going with Ka Espaza getting a job done even though Marina Rodriguez looked pretty good against Tisha Torres."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 45 of 103 43% 48 of 106 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:46
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 98 44% 44 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 5 of 18 27% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 15 of 31 48% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 45 of 103 43% 34 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 7 39 of 94 5 of 8 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 98 44% 15 of 60 13 of 16 16 of 22 39 of 92 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 5 of 18 27% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 9 of 28 32% 4 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 7 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 15 of 31 48% 13 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 26 50% 3 of 15 4 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 25 of 54 46% 18 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 47 4 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 44 50% 8 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.

"I like Asparza here just for the fact that I think she can go out here and get takedowns in a close fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.

"I'm gonna go with the underdog here man i'ma go at karate hottie I think that she's got more tricks up her sleeve"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.

Carla Esparza by decision
"I'm still leaning Carlos far as a here I'm gonna say caller does eventually grind her out"
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 44 of 80 55% 115 of 157 4 of 11 36% 0 1 7:12
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 103 43% 103 of 169 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 36 50% 36 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Alexa Grasso 0 17 of 41 41% 33 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 18 72% 56 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:25
Alexa Grasso 0 6 of 20 30% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
3 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 1 2:16
Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 42 52% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 44 of 80 55% 27 of 60 11 of 14 6 of 6 28 of 59 6 of 9 10 of 12
Alexa Grasso 45 of 103 43% 41 of 97 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 88 3 of 6 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 18 of 36 50% 8 of 25 7 of 8 3 of 3 13 of 29 4 of 6 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 17 of 41 41% 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Carla Esparza 13 of 18 72% 10 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 11
Alexa Grasso 6 of 20 30% 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 22 of 42 52% 21 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 7 of 7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 25 of 51 49% 97 of 128 4 of 10 40% 0 1 5:25
Virna Jandiroba 0 17 of 37 45% 64 of 89 3 of 9 33% 0 2 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 22 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:43
2 Carla Esparza 0 9 of 20 45% 28 of 40 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 15 46% 24 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:42
3 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 19 42% 43 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:05
Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 25 of 51 49% 18 of 43 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 8 of 12 5 of 9
Virna Jandiroba 17 of 37 45% 13 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 3 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 5 2 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 8 of 19 42% 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3
Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas - Fight History
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 51 of 133 38% 63 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 94 27% 46 of 119 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 15 of 44 34% 15 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 8 of 27 29% 15 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 18 27% 25 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
3 Natália Silva 0 28 of 62 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 37 21% 8 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 51 of 133 38% 25 of 95 8 of 14 18 of 24 50 of 132 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 26 of 94 27% 11 of 64 3 of 13 12 of 17 26 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 15 of 44 34% 10 of 32 1 of 3 4 of 9 15 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 13 of 39 33% 4 of 22 1 of 6 8 of 11 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 8 of 27 29% 4 of 22 0 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 28 of 62 45% 11 of 41 7 of 10 10 of 11 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 37 21% 4 of 26 1 of 6 3 of 5 8 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.

I think over two and a half is likely the lock of the card.
"I'm going to go with the younger, faster, better athlete here, and I think that is Natalya Silva."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.

Silva by decision
"I think Silva's going to kind of kind of piece her up over the course of 15 minutes. I think it's going to be a pretty frustrating fight for Rose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.

"I do I do have Silva to get the job done by unanimous decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Connor says the odds seem reasonable.
"I think it's a good matchup. I do over feel that I have to pick Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.

"I'm calling a 3027 decision by Natalya Silva in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Natália Silva

James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.

"Natalia Silva is literally taking away Rose's Namunis' best asset and attribute in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.

Over 2.5 rounds, Namajunas moneyline recommended for betting
"minus 410 Silva is whack. That is way too far out of whack. I I am gonna lean her in terms of a prediction. Obviously, over two and a half would be a no-brainer here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.

"I think it just really comes down to speed. I don't know if Rose is going to be able to get the wrestling going. And on the feet, there's really nobody quicker um men or woman really out there than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

decision, 30-27
"Natalyia Silva is going to get this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Zane says the odds seem reasonable.
"I am going to be picking Natalia Silva. She is the coming woman in this division."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 25 of 86 29% 46 of 118 2 of 4 50% 0 0 6:33
Miranda Maverick 0 25 of 74 33% 52 of 108 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 17 of 59 28% 18 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Miranda Maverick 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 17 29% 9 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:05
Miranda Maverick 0 5 of 14 35% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:45
3 Rose Namajunas 1 3 of 10 30% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:13
Miranda Maverick 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 25 of 86 29% 22 of 75 3 of 10 0 of 1 23 of 83 1 of 1 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 25 of 74 33% 14 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 7 25 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 17 of 59 28% 15 of 50 2 of 8 0 of 1 16 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 20 of 58 34% 11 of 47 4 of 5 5 of 6 20 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 5 of 17 29% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose because she is the better striker with superior footwork and technique. He acknowledges Miranda's wrestling threat but believes Rose can defend takedowns and out-strike her. He expresses concern about Rose's training situation but hopes she strings it together like she did against Tracy Cortez.

"Rose Namayuma should absolutely be the just better fighter across the board."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision. He believes Rose is the better fighter overall, with superior striking and the ability to get takedowns against Maverick's sub-50% takedown defense. He worries slightly about Maverick's strength but notes Rose has done well at flyweight. He thinks Rose should win at least two rounds in a three-round fight.

"I'll take Rose to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Connor picks Namajunas, agreeing that Maverick is a 'Jake Matthews of women's flyweight'—athletic but aimless, with no clear idea how to win. He notes that Namajunas is much better in the clinch than she used to be and that Maverick's wrestling entries are poor. Connor believes Namajunas's speed, accuracy, and combination punching will allow her to outwork Maverick, and that Maverick's tendency to float and try things without a plan will be her undoing.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220.
"I think this is just a really good style matchup for nami units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but Namajunas's striking will reign supreme. She may have issues with Maverick's strength and clinch work, but she will get into open space, land more damage, and win a clear decision.

odds comment: closer fight than the odds suggest
"This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but I expect Nama Ununas is striking to reign supreme here..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, calling her a much better technical martial artist. He notes her grappling defense and standup are superior, and she has size at flyweight. He expects a unanimous decision win, 30-27, as Rose outclasses Maverick everywhere.

"I'm going to go with Rose Namunas. She's a much better martial artist. This is a bit of a mismatch. Um a very big mismatch."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Zane picks Namajunas, citing her superior craft, movement, and jab-heavy striking as a clear advantage over Maverick's aimless, unprincipled game. He notes that Maverick lacks a clear process and often gets caught up striking when she should wrestle, while Namajunas is accurate, fast, and effective at kicking range. Zane believes Namajunas can outpoint Maverick over three rounds, as Maverick has consistently lost to fighters with a strong game plan.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220. Zane thinks the line could get longer.
"I think rose is fully capable of just kind of being much craftier and more consistent than maverick and and taking a decision off of her"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 110 of 281 39% 193 of 387 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:54
Rose Namajunas 0 94 of 245 38% 101 of 254 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 67 37% 28 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 65 35% 26 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 11 of 28 39% 48 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 93 43% 43 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Rose Namajunas 0 25 of 79 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Erin Blanchfield 0 15 of 25 60% 55 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:08
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 19 36% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 110 of 281 39% 81 of 248 15 of 16 14 of 17 103 of 269 2 of 6 5 of 6
Rose Namajunas 94 of 245 38% 68 of 212 18 of 24 8 of 9 91 of 241 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 19 of 68 27% 11 of 58 3 of 4 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 61 49% 22 of 52 2 of 3 6 of 6 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 67 37% 21 of 61 2 of 2 2 of 4 25 of 65 0 of 2 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 65 35% 17 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 2 22 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 11 of 28 39% 7 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 2
Rose Namajunas 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 93 43% 29 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 40 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 25 of 79 31% 16 of 67 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Erin Blanchfield 15 of 25 60% 13 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
Rose Namajunas 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"
WIN vs Tracy Cortez
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 96 of 180 53% 119 of 215 5 of 5 100% 0 0 6:36
Tracy Cortez 0 58 of 198 29% 85 of 233 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 1 26 of 50 52% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 43 27% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 46 56% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 41 26% 12 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:16
3 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 12 41% 15 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Tracy Cortez 0 2 of 9 22% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Rose Namajunas 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 44 27% 15 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
5 Rose Namajunas 0 28 of 44 63% 30 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Tracy Cortez 0 21 of 61 34% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 96 of 180 53% 66 of 146 17 of 20 13 of 14 93 of 175 3 of 5 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 58 of 198 29% 31 of 162 14 of 17 13 of 19 52 of 189 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 26 of 50 52% 16 of 39 4 of 5 6 of 6 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 43 27% 4 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 10 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 26 of 46 56% 16 of 33 5 of 7 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 11 of 41 26% 7 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 11 of 28 39% 8 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 44 27% 7 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 28 of 44 63% 21 of 37 6 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 21 of 61 34% 12 of 50 6 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.

Plans to have a few bets on Rose.
"I got to go rose rose should win this fight she should probably dominate this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.

"I think Thug Rose is a very rightful favorite here at minus 200."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.

"I'm gonna go ahead and pick Tracy Cortez to upset Rose nunas and surprise a lot of people."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.

Namajunas by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide, wouldn't hate an underdog shot on Cortez
"I think from there she should be able to cruise to a decision the line for my liking a little bit too wide again I wouldn't hate anybody taking an underdog shot on Cortez but I do think the former …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.

"I agree she's a rightful favorite I'm picking her to win."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 83 of 270 30% 137 of 342 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:38
Amanda Ribas 0 93 of 188 49% 169 of 281 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 16 of 47 34% 30 of 63 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Amanda Ribas 0 23 of 34 67% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
2 Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 49 30% 22 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 39 48% 43 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 50 36% 31 of 70 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
4 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 39 25% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 25 28% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
5 Rose Namajunas 0 24 of 85 28% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 83 of 270 30% 39 of 195 19 of 42 25 of 33 76 of 259 4 of 6 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 93 of 188 49% 45 of 124 44 of 60 4 of 4 81 of 176 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 16 of 47 34% 8 of 33 2 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 23 of 34 67% 6 of 16 16 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 15 of 49 30% 7 of 34 3 of 8 5 of 7 14 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 27 6 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 18 of 50 36% 10 of 39 3 of 5 5 of 6 15 of 44 0 of 1 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 19 of 36 52% 11 of 26 7 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 10 of 39 25% 3 of 28 2 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 24 of 85 28% 11 of 61 9 of 18 4 of 6 23 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 12 of 36 12 of 17 1 of 1 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

"I got to pick rose rose is going to be the pick Amanda's going to stay in her face hopefully Amanda rips her to the ground and just beats on her and breaks her and wins this fight let's have …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

"I got to go Rose here I mean I I just think she's the much better fighter... I'm going to take rose on my un to win this fight and to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

"I will take Rose but again there's always going to be some hesitancy there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

"if this fight gets extended I think that her output's on the higher side as well and it's one of those things where Rose is very momentum based"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Namajunas by TKO (round 3); under 4.5 rounds
"I think we see Nami yunas control this fight in the Striking realm I think she stops the takedowns... and then I think we obviously see Nami unas find that knockout I'm going to call it round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

"I got Rose as well... I'll hope that she's learned her lesson from that absolutely flat performance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

second round rear-naked choke
"I'm going Rosen am yunas over Amanda Ribas... second round re naked choke to Rose nunas"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 58 of 225 25% 62 of 232 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 60 of 150 40% 60 of 152 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 18 of 88 20% 18 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 19 of 69 27% 23 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
3 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 58 of 225 25% 39 of 197 15 of 22 4 of 6 53 of 214 4 of 10 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 60 of 150 40% 32 of 107 15 of 26 13 of 17 59 of 148 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 18 of 88 20% 14 of 82 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 56 41% 11 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 23 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 19 of 69 27% 11 of 55 7 of 11 1 of 3 17 of 62 2 of 7 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 15 of 40 37% 10 of 31 4 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 21 of 68 30% 14 of 60 6 of 7 1 of 1 18 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 22 of 54 40% 11 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-185), Namajunas (+154)

Round 1
The bout that likely holds the greatest immediate title implications today comes in the co-main event, between two flyweights. Competing in MMA on French soil for the first time, Nice-born Fiorot (10-1, 5-0 UFC) hopes that a win over former champ Namajunas (11-5, 9-4 UFC) will propel her to the top of the weight class. On the other side of the equation, “Thug Rose” will be making her first jaunt to 125 pounds after multiple championship reigns down at strawweight. The size difference is not as significant as some might expect, and the women will have upwards of 15 minutes to state their case as elite members of the division. As referee Rich Mitchell stands by, the two ladies decide against bumping fists. Namajunas snaps out a quick right hand, and Fiorot responds with a left. Namajunas lands a low kick, and she pushes off with a side kick as Fiorot crowds her. Namajunas misses with a back fist, and Fiorot lands with a stern right hook. Fiorot stands fearlessly in front of her opponent, and she misses with a one-two and tries to catch her with a second. Namajunas slides to the side and sneak out a left hook. Fiorot catches Namajunas before the former champ can get off a combination, and she connects with a body shot when Namajunas closes the distance. Namajunas kicks low and shoots for a single, and the Frenchwoman tosses her aside with little effort. Fiorot keeps her range with a low kick and lunging jab, and her kicks are successfully keeping Namajunas at bay. Fiorot gets off a jab and a one-two, and Namajunas parries the latter. Namajunas beats Fiorot to the punch with a left hand, and she lands this same punch two more times. Namajunas kicks the lead leg, and Fiorot backs her off with short combinations of punches. Namajunas lands one kick and takes three punches off the top before she can reset. Namajunas manages to get in a single left, and Fiorot ignores it. Fiorot misses with a strike, and Namajunas slips her and connects cleanly with a left hand. As the former champ blocks a kick, she meanders forward and evades the other strikes with decent head movement. Namajunas drops down to her knees to snatch up a single, and Fiorot shuts it down and gets away. Fiorot lands cleanly with a left hand on the nose, and she bats Namajunas away with a side kick. The round ends with Fiorot jabbing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Between rounds, Namajunas informs her corner that she broke her right pink finger, and partner Pat Barry says “that’s alright, you don’t need her finger.” Namajunas is not discouraged despite the potential injury, and she is ready to resume action. Namajunas gets in Fiorot’s face early with a flurry of punches, and Fiorot stays composed and does not take many strikes cleanly. Fiorot boxes Namajunas up with a few shots ending with a short right hook, and two punches send Namajunas off-balance. Namajunas topples over, and she climbs to her knees and up as Fiorot rushes at her. Namajunas fights her way out of the clinch, only to absorb a flush knee to the body. Namajunas swipes out with a left, and her strikes do not have near the impact compared to her opponent’s – and the size difference does appear to be widening the competitive gap between the two. Fiorot takes a hook kick on the nose, and she leans back to dodge a subsequent spinning wheel kick in the nick of time. Fiorot spams punches, and Namajunas evades every single one and comes back with a right hand over the top. Fiorot times a head kick as Namajunas comes in on her, and Namajunas is able to respond with a huge right hand that shakes Fiorot up at the same time Fiorot tosses a side kick. Namajunas uses the moment to pursue a takedown, but Fiorot outmuscles her and keeps herself upright before breaking free. Namajunas lands a right hand on the break, and she holds her guard high to defend against a kick. Both women swing at the same time and duck down, and their heads clack together as a sizeable cut opens on Fiorot’s right temple. Fiorot pays it no mind and tells Mitchell she is fine, and the blood flow is not presenting any issues. Namajunas times a left hand on that target, and she gets pushed back from a side kick. Fiorot sweeps the leg, and she absorbs a good right hand on the way out. Namajunas scores a short left, but Fiorot lands two back at her. Namajunas swings hard, and she does land a left hook, only for Fiorot to completely ignore it as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
There is no plan on a glove touch to start the last round, and instead Namajunas is ready to go to battle and try to pull off a comeback. Namajunas lets go with a head kick and shoots for a single, and Fiorot blocks the former and stuffs the latter. Namajunas resets and chops at the lead leg, and she darts forward with a pair of punches that whiz past the Frenchwoman. Namajunas whips a left hand over the top, and she lands another before changing levels. Fiorot will not allow herself to be taken down, and she bucks out of the posture and gets back to kickboxing range. Fiorot gets off a stomp kick to the knee, and Namajunas rushes at her opponent only to miss wide. Namajunas sticks Fiorot during an exchange, and Fiorot retaliates with a trio of punches. Fiorot comes up just short when trying to counter a leg kick, and she absorbs a flush right hand but keeps on moving. The former champ scores a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Fiorot is well away from any strikes that could possibly follow. Fiorot snipes with her jab and swiping right hook, using it to stop Namajunas from getting on the inside. Namajunas chases after Fiorot, and they trade head kicks – Fiorot’s lands much harder. Namajunas tries to cut off the cage, but Fiorot is elusive and her timing is erratic enough to not let Namajunas track her down. Namajunas dings her foe with three left hooks, and Fiorot slips but gathers herself and leans back against the wall instead of falling down. Namajunas looks for a few strikes, and Fiorot breaks off and escapes. Namajunas continues her pursuit, and Fiorot gets out of danger and watches a spin kick soar past her as time elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Rose Namajunas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo is confident Manon Fiorot dominates, citing her size, power, and volume. He notes Rose Namajunas is moving up in weight and lacks volume compared to Manon. He points out Manon has landed more strikes in each of her last five wins than Rose did in five-round fights. He has parlayed Manon with Ange Loosa.

parlayed with Ange Loosa for plus money
"I think mannon dominates this fight... I have parlayed her with Ange loosa for some plus money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot, citing her size, strength, power, and volume advantage over the smaller Namajunas moving up from strawweight. He doubts Rose can outgrapple, outvolume, or knock out Fiorot. He expects Fiorot to win a decision, though he acknowledges Rose's striking talent and calls it an interesting test.

"in terms of a pick I'm gonna pick Fiora to win this fight... fioro does get it done and get it done here by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody picks Fiorot due to size and strength advantages at flyweight, and questions Rose's motivation after a lackluster performance against Esparza. He notes Rose's striking advantages were not used in that fight and she has been off for a year. Fiorot's kicking game and French crowd support are key factors. Cody sees Rose's offensive wrestling as a potential path but doubts she can take down or hold down a strong flyweight.

"the pick will be minnow Fiero for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, arguing that Fiorot's elusive, outside-fighting style will frustrate Rose Namajunas, who thrives in pocket boxing exchanges. He believes Fiorot will use sidekicks and movement to keep Rose at range, preventing her from letting her hands go. Levi dismisses the size narrative, stating that Fiorot is not a pressure grappler so the weight class difference is irrelevant. He expects a clear 30-27 decision, noting that Fiorot has a history of outpointing tough opponents like Mayra Bueno Silva.

Fiorot by decision
"I think Manon fioro is going to be on the outside and she's gonna make rose now my units come to her... I think she's gonna frustrate her and I see her 30-27 here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Manon Fiorot

Lucrative James is on Fiorot, having bet on her almost every fight. He thinks Fiorot is legit, top-five material, and that Rose is meeting her at the wrong time. He notes Rose's mental issues, long layoff, career-worst performance, and step up in weight. He believes Fiorot is bigger and stronger, and that Rose hasn't been finished except by Carla Esparza long ago. He likes Fiorot by points at +140, as he doesn't see a finish.

Manon Fiorot by decision (+140)
"I like Pharrell here and I like ferovia points at plus 140. I think that's a good bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

I'm leaning with Fiorot here. She has great takedown defense and a dynamic striking style with power and volume. Rose is a wild card mentally and may struggle with the weight cut to flyweight. Fiorot's footwork and ability to stay at distance should allow her to land significant strikes. However, I don't have a boatload of confidence because Rose has the experience advantage and could potentially get takedowns if she closes the distance. I think Fiorot wins by decision.

"I'm gonna lean with hero here you know she's gonna have a two inch height Advantage uh uh just an inch reach Advantage but I think it's mainly the power in which he throws and her comfortability in the Striking …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul also picks Fiorot, emphasizing her size and strength advantage. He doubts Rose's motivation and notes her inability to engage against Esparza. Paul thinks Rose's offensive wrestling could be a factor but that Fiorot's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He expects a striking affair where Fiorot's speed and kicking game prevail, likely by decision (29-28 or 30-27).

"I'm gonna go firo five round fight... at least 29 28 hopefully a 30 27."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot by TKO, citing her physicality and dangerous stand-up, while Rose Namajunas appears mentally checked out. He notes Rose's lack of activity, her poor performance against Carla Esparza, and her loss in a grappling match. He believes Fiorot will overwhelm Rose with a flurry of punches in round one.

"I'm going with man on Fiora TKO is my prediction I think Rose is checked out of the game"
LOSS vs Carla Esparza
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Zhang Weili
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 86 of 168 51% 130 of 219 2 of 2 100% 0 1 7:00
Zhang Weili 0 83 of 173 47% 162 of 272 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 0 22 of 38 57% 36 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Zhang Weili 0 16 of 39 41% 21 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
3 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Zhang Weili 0 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
4 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 23 60% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:32
Zhang Weili 0 12 of 27 44% 32 of 50 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:54
5 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 26 69% 31 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Zhang Weili 0 8 of 18 44% 44 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 86 of 168 51% 57 of 131 12 of 17 17 of 20 60 of 136 6 of 6 20 of 26
Zhang Weili 83 of 173 47% 36 of 112 14 of 16 33 of 45 64 of 138 5 of 8 14 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 20 of 36 55% 11 of 25 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 22 of 38 57% 6 of 19 5 of 5 11 of 14 19 of 34 1 of 1 2 of 3
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 5 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 39 2 of 2 2 of 4
Zhang Weili 16 of 39 41% 6 of 28 4 of 5 6 of 6 13 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Rose Namajunas 14 of 38 36% 11 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 5 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 25 of 51 49% 13 of 33 4 of 4 8 of 14 19 of 43 3 of 4 3 of 4
4 Rose Namajunas 14 of 23 60% 9 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 5
Zhang Weili 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 16 0 of 2 3 of 9
5 Rose Namajunas 18 of 26 69% 14 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 14 of 17
Zhang Weili 8 of 18 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.

"i'm leaning towards wayley here honestly uh i think she'll make the adjustments she'll protect her chin i think she'll push the pace in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.

win by decision
"give me zhang waili to win give me zhang wai lee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.

"i agree 100 with you my friend i don't think you can turn away from it i think it's a live dog shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.

plus 105 underdog
"why is rose nominees the underdog in this spot i mean ... i am going to pick her to defend her belt here against wylie"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.

Submission win prop; Moneyline bet at -102 (2 units)
"i'm never gonna bet against rose again man i think she's burned me so many times... i put a money line bet on her like a two unit bet i even put so i put a submission win on her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.

Over 4.5 rounds (-125), Zhang by decision (+250)
"i'm going to go wildly zhang i'm going to pick her by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.

"rose is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.

third round rear naked choke
"I'm going to go over eunis uh mainly because."