Stephen Thompson vs Robert Whittaker

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephen Thompson	0	42 of 92	45%	78 of 135	0 of 2	0%	0	1	0:28
Gabriel Bonfim	0	40 of 72	55%	55 of 93	5 of 14	35%	0	0	5:29

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Stephen Thompson	0	6 of 24	25%	9 of 28	0 of 0	---	1	0:11
Gabriel Bonfim	0	14 of 24	58%	17 of 28	2 of 3	66%	0	1:26
2	Stephen Thompson	0	29 of 47	61%	37 of 55	0 of 0	---	0	0:02
Gabriel Bonfim	0	16 of 30	53%	16 of 30	1 of 5	20%	0	1:18
3	Stephen Thompson	0	7 of 21	33%	32 of 52	0 of 2	0%	0	0:15
Gabriel Bonfim	0	10 of 18	55%	22 of 35	2 of 6	33%	0	2:45

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephen Thompson	42 of 92	45%	21 of 61	14 of 20	7 of 11	37 of 83	3 of 5	2 of 4
Gabriel Bonfim	40 of 72	55%	12 of 36	5 of 6	23 of 30	34 of 65	6 of 7	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephen Thompson	6 of 24	25%	1 of 13	3 of 7	2 of 4	6 of 21	0 of 1	0 of 2
Gabriel Bonfim	14 of 24	58%	3 of 7	0 of 1	11 of 16	14 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	29 of 47	61%	18 of 35	7 of 8	4 of 4	25 of 42	2 of 3	2 of 2
Gabriel Bonfim	16 of 30	53%	7 of 20	0 of 0	9 of 10	16 of 29	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	7 of 21	33%	2 of 13	4 of 5	1 of 3	6 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0
Gabriel Bonfim	10 of 18	55%	2 of 9	5 of 5	3 of 4	4 of 12	6 of 6	0 of 0

Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-380); Thompson (+310)

Round 1
The final two battles will have the betting favorite of each 15 years younger than their respective underdog. Former title challenger Thompson (17-8-1, 12-8-1 UFC) knows at the age of 42, his time at welterweight is running out. Meanwhile, at 27, Bonfim (17-1, 4-1 UFC) is ready for his meteoric rise. Depending on the Brazilian’s strategy, a number of different types of fights could play out. Like referee Blake Grice, we will see how this interesting stylistic clash plays out shortly. They sportingly clap hands.
Thompson strikes first with a low calf kick. He goes to the same spot again, and Bonfim answers him back three times. They keep chopping at one another until Thompson kicks high. Thompson tries a spin kick that buzzes past his target, and Bonfim stays composed working on the lead leg. Bonfim brushes the side with a kick, and Thompson kicks him back much harder. Bonfim is quick to get in and out with his speedy kicks, allowing him to dodge a side kick aimed at his face. Thompson does not budge or flinch at what is offered at him, allowing Bonfim to chip away at his calf because it is primarily his only weapon. Bonfim shoots, a full-throated double, and he grasps Thompson from behind, lifts him up and slams him down. Thompson works his way back to his feet, and Bonfim chucks him right back down like a side of beef.
Bonfim starts to pursue a rear-naked choke, and he climbs on the back of “Wonderboy” and forces him to lower himself to a knee. Bonfim only has a face crank, but he is squeezing with all of his might as he is still relatively fresh. Thompson breaks free, and the crowd erupts as Thompson starts beating on Bonfim. Bonfim still works his way back to his feet, ignoring the short knees aimed at his torso to lean on the karateka. Thompson breaks out of the tie-up and grins, and he is quick to launch a head kick at the Brazilian. Thompson walks his foe down, landing a body kick and potshotting him with distant strikes. Bonfim reaches him with a left hook, and a second when Thompson is backing up wobbles Thompson briefly. “Wonderboy” checks a calf kick, and he kicks high while Bonfim spins. They collide legs together, and then smile and high-five as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
Bonfim forgets his mouthpiece between rounds, and he is able to replace it before they get started. Thompson is able to stay at a safe enough range, just missing with a hook kick but scoring his calf kick. Bonfim’s head kick slaps off Thompson’s hand, and he changes levels and shoots for a double, which turns quickly into a single. Thompson defends by pushing off the fence and the back of Bonfim’s neck to shut it down. Thompson gets free, and he is free to kick before marching in with two straight punches. He checks a kick, and a second lands. Bonfim intercepts a blitzing Thompson with a hard left hook, but Thompson’s chin holds up just fine as he digs a kick to the ribs. Thompson kicks it a little higher to slam into the raised guard, and he dances out of the way of the swinging Brazilian.
Thompson is able to kick intercept his opponent, his hands still low as can be as he spins with a wheel kick. Bonfim times a takedown shot, and it fails. A second attempt allows Bonfim to get Thompson down for a second, but Thompson bounces back upright with the fence at his side. Bonfim clings to his opponent and takes away all of his weapons, frustrating the crowd and his opponent equally. Thompson frames off with his knee and gets out with 80 seconds to spare. He jabs the body, avoids a left hook and comes back with his own overhand right. Bonfim presses forward, walking into a side kick and taking a head kick clean on the side of the dome. Bonfim takes it like a champ and keeps plodding forward, drilling Thompson in the chin with a stiff right hand. Thompson shakes his head and spins with a kick that Bonfim sees coming. Bonfim knocks Thompson off his feet with a left hand after kicking Thompson’s shin so hard it splits open. Thompson bounces off the floor and pushes through the pain to clobber Bonfim with a massive head kick. Bonfim’s balance nearly gives way, and he blasts him with a second to further hurt him. Thompson tries to finish the job, and Bonfim desperately goes for a takedown he cannot get. Before he gets his finish, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson

Round 3
The welterweights hug it out to get going, but the mean streak of Bonfim does not go anywhere. Thompson kicks Bonfim in the head several times, slamming into the guard or the side of the head indiscriminately. Blood pours out of the open wound on Thompson’s shin, which leaves Thompson with a slight bloody footprint bouncing around the cage. Bonfim tries to grapple his opponent, resulting in a clinch but no takedown. Instead, he uses heel strikes to pound at the gash on “Wonderboy.” The commentary booth is not amused. When they separate, Thompson looks at his shin and goes “whew,” but promptly throws a head kick from that wounded limb. Bonfim tries to stop the strikes from coming by going after another takedown, and Thompson breaks off much faster this time as he turns Bonfim around on the fence.
The karateka knows his best chance of victory is with his legs, and he brushes the Brazilian’s hair with a wheel kick. Thompson grins and Bonfim smiles back. Thompson blasts Bonfim in the dome about as hard as one possibly can, and the Brazilian tanks it and even tries to offer back his own head kick. Bonfim shoots for a double, putting Thompson on his seat as the crowd rejects his approach and lets him have it. Bonfim hangs on to “Wonderboy” and takes an elbow on the side of the noggin for good measure. Bonfim continues to cling to his adversary rather than do anything more with his position, and Grice asks for them to do something. Thompson spins his man around for a second, but Bonfim is able to leverage him back to a knee. Thompson hits a trip and nearly puts Bonfim down, and Bonfim stands and leans as the fight ends in the clinch. It could go either way, which is something not too many people expected.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson (29-28 Thompson)

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Stephen Thompson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.

"Gabrian Fee is going to be the pick. Another fight with some pretty wide odds but these ones are a little more justified."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.

first round submission

"I'm going Gabriel Bonfam to win this fight. and I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.

Odds could be wider; Bonfim opened at -400, now -425, and Connor says he would be very surprised if Thompson wins.

"I just think Bonfim is way too fast and dynamic and can change gears too fast for Thompson to really have the game to hang with that every step of the way."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.

submission within 2 rounds

"Thompson 42 years old really getting up there in age often has to lean on that speed, accuracy, and just reflexes to try to get his wins. Unfortunately, he's going up against a younger and more dangerous fighter here in …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.

submission in first or second round

"I'm gonna go with Gabriel Bomb Firm over Steven Thompson. ... I think Bon Firm submits him in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Gabriel Bonfim

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Bonfim because Thompson has reverted to a gutsy slugger who can't wrestle, and Bonfim's speed and dynamic grappling will overwhelm him. He notes that Bonfim will likely take Thompson down and finish him, as seen in the Chaos Williams fight. Zane calls the matchup 'slightly cruel but necessary' for Thompson's career stage.

Odds could be wider; Bonfim opened at -400, now -425.

"I can't help thinking that he's gonna, when he gets in on Steven Thompson and starts roughing him up, he's probably going to put him away pretty fast."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley

KO (punch) R3 2:17 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley	0	49 of 106	46%	63 of 121	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03
Stephen Thompson	1	34 of 93	36%	55 of 117	4 of 7	57%	0	0	4:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joaquin Buckley	0	15 of 28	53%	21 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Stephen Thompson	0	6 of 26	23%	16 of 39	2 of 3	66%	2:18
2	Joaquin Buckley	0	22 of 45	48%	28 of 51	0 of 0	---	0:03
2	Stephen Thompson	0	12 of 33	36%	20 of 41	2 of 4	50%	1:37
3	Joaquin Buckley	0	12 of 33	36%	14 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Stephen Thompson	1	16 of 34	47%	19 of 37	0 of 0	---	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joaquin Buckley	49 of 106	46%	38 of 93	7 of 9	4 of 4	36 of 90	13 of 15	0 of 1
Stephen Thompson	34 of 93	36%	23 of 78	9 of 12	2 of 3	28 of 82	5 of 9	1 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joaquin Buckley	15 of 28	53%	12 of 25	2 of 2	1 of 1	12 of 24	3 of 4	0 of 0
1	Stephen Thompson	6 of 26	23%	5 of 21	1 of 4	0 of 1	5 of 22	1 of 4	0 of 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	22 of 45	48%	18 of 41	2 of 2	2 of 2	13 of 34	9 of 10	0 of 1
2	Stephen Thompson	12 of 33	36%	8 of 29	4 of 4	0 of 0	10 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	12 of 33	36%	8 of 27	3 of 5	1 of 1	11 of 32	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	16 of 34	47%	10 of 28	4 of 4	2 of 2	13 of 29	2 of 3	1 of 2

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson

Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.

"I think waim Buckley Sprints right through him on the ground if he needs to"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.

"I got to go with Steven Thompson here I think he's the the much better Striker and if Buckley doesn't get takedowns I think Thompson can get it done here so I'm going to take Thompson to win this fight …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.

"I got Buckley as well"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.

Buckley by TKO if he gets enough wrestling

"Buckley just needs to wrestle. And he's a very willing wrestler."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.

"I think that Buckley's gonna time these double legs and I think he's gonna come out here ground and pound TKO or submission"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.

"I expect Buckley to get this fight to the ground promptly and from there utilize his topheavy approach where he should be able to grind this out and win it on the scorecards"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.

Buckley by decision

"Buckley Buckley by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.

"I'm going to go Walkin Buckley second round TKO I think he's going to put a whooping on wanderb boy"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joaquin Buckley

Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.

Buckley by TKO if he gets enough wrestling

"I got to pick him to the takedowns and you know, like Buckley can't he can absolutely walk right on to a knockout."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov	0	28 of 36	77%	73 of 88	1 of 5	20%	2	0	7:45
Stephen Thompson	0	16 of 25	64%	26 of 37	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	12 of 20	60%	25 of 34	0 of 2	0%	0	3:25
1	Stephen Thompson	10 of 14	71%	14 of 20	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	16 of 16	100%	48 of 54	1 of 3	33%	2	4:20
2	Stephen Thompson	6 of 11	54%	12 of 17	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Shavkat Rakhmonov	28 of 36	77%	24 of 31	4 of 5	0 of 0	5 of 8	10 of 15	13 of 13
Stephen Thompson	16 of 25	64%	6 of 15	7 of 7	3 of 3	13 of 22	1 of 1	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	12 of 20	60%	9 of 16	3 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 6	9 of 14	0 of 0
1	Stephen Thompson	10 of 14	71%	3 of 7	4 of 4	3 of 3	9 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	16 of 16	100%	15 of 15	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 2	1 of 1	13 of 13
2	Stephen Thompson	6 of 11	54%	3 of 8	3 of 3	0 of 0	4 of 9	0 of 0	2 of 2

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Anti-40 parlay leg; finish expected

"shavkat is going to be the pick... shavkat is in that anti-40 parlay as well"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

"give me shovot to win this fight by second round TKO vicious grounded pound TKO incoming"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

"shavkat is the pick I have no intention of betting that fight though"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

"shavkat is the pick here"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

"rachmanov is our pick here"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

Inside the distance finish.

"I think Shavkat is going to run through him... Stephen Thompson's gonna get finished inside the distance."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Rakhmonov inside the distance

"shavat Rak manov probably more dangerous than those guys when he's able to get them to the ground and I think that will see Rock manov get him to the ground pretty easily here get that dominant position I think …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

"I think shavkat will have the takedowns I think the time to fade shavkat is coming as he's going to break into this top five"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov

The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.

Shavkat by submission (arm triangle) in round 2

"shavkat rachmanov arm triangle it's sad but that's what I see happening here... I'm going to go with shavkat getting an arm triangle working his way through after getting half Guard from an outside trip up against the cage"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Kevin Holland

TKO (corner stoppage) R4 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephen Thompson	0	163 of 260	62%	178 of 278	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:47
Kevin Holland	0	119 of 210	56%	123 of 214	2 of 6	33%	0	0	1:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Stephen Thompson	34 of 47	72%	38 of 51	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Kevin Holland	49 of 70	70%	52 of 73	0 of 0	---	0:27
2	Stephen Thompson	38 of 67	56%	40 of 69	0 of 0	---	0:04
2	Kevin Holland	33 of 66	50%	33 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:06
3	Stephen Thompson	43 of 76	56%	48 of 81	0 of 0	---	0:06
3	Kevin Holland	25 of 50	50%	25 of 50	1 of 1	100%	0:16
4	Stephen Thompson	48 of 70	68%	52 of 77	0 of 0	---	0:37
4	Kevin Holland	12 of 24	50%	13 of 25	0 of 4	0%	0:32

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephen Thompson	163 of 260	62%	103 of 192	42 of 49	18 of 19	150 of 241	13 of 19	0 of 0
Kevin Holland	119 of 210	56%	52 of 131	23 of 29	44 of 50	97 of 187	22 of 23	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephen Thompson	34 of 47	72%	21 of 31	8 of 10	5 of 6	31 of 44	3 of 3	0 of 0
1	Kevin Holland	49 of 70	70%	22 of 39	11 of 13	16 of 18	37 of 57	12 of 13	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	38 of 67	56%	25 of 53	10 of 11	3 of 3	36 of 64	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Kevin Holland	33 of 66	50%	16 of 45	4 of 5	13 of 16	28 of 61	5 of 5	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	43 of 76	56%	34 of 66	6 of 7	3 of 3	41 of 71	2 of 5	0 of 0
3	Kevin Holland	25 of 50	50%	9 of 32	4 of 5	12 of 13	23 of 48	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Stephen Thompson	48 of 70	68%	23 of 42	18 of 21	7 of 7	42 of 62	6 of 8	0 of 0
4	Kevin Holland	12 of 24	50%	5 of 15	4 of 6	3 of 3	9 of 21	3 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-155), Thompson (+135)

Round 1
Less than two months removed from his UFC 279 co-headliner against Khamzat Chimaev, Holland (23-8, 1 NC; 10-5, 1 NC UFC) is back in action again, this time as the main attraction. Getting back to welterweight after that awkward 180-pound switcheroo, this will be fight number four this year for “Trailblazer” compared to the first in 2022 for Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC). One of these two will turn things around and return to the win column at night’s end, and it could be the recently aged 30-year-old Holland or soon-to-be 40 “Wonderboy.” Referee Dan Miragliotta is on the call for this striker’s delight, and the two men who enjoyed one another’s company greatly this week touch ‘em up to commence the final fight of the night. When Thompson kicks, Holland does too. Holland charges recklessly, forcing Thompson to retreat and attempt to counter. Holland’s forward blitz leads to a clinch, and he starts talking to his opponent to tell him to let him go. Thompson obliges and scores a low kick, and he counters Holland over the top with a right hand. Holland ends up closing in with a clinch when trying to surge forward, and Thompson pushes him away and nails Holland with a serious left hand. Holland shakes it off and reaches out with side kicks, and a blow from Holland has opened a cut on the corner of Thompson’s left eye. Holland comes out throwing caution to the wind and engaging wildly, and Thompson is there to brawl and catch him with quicker strikes. Holland gets blasted with another left hand and grins, and he leaps forward to attack. The lunging strikes from Holland open him up to counters, and Holland grins and runs forward to unleash a ferocious overhand right that rocks the karateka. Holland backs his man up to the wall and starts to do work on him, but Thompson pushes off and shakes out the cobwebs. As Holland re-engages, Thompson meets him with a left hand and a speedy head kick. Holland is thrilled by the exchanges, smiling and having a blast, and Thompson is enjoying himself as well. Holland runs forward with a back fist, and “Wonderboy” knocks him back wit ha left. As Thompson fires off a hook kick, Holland times a chopping kick to knock Thompson to the floor. The former title challenger lines up a left hand that rings Holland’s bell, but Holland no-sells the move and allows Thompson to chase him down. They mimic one another’s side stances, and Thompson is there to catch his advancing opponent. Holland fires off a pair of body kick after sprinting at his man, and Thompson responds in kind. Holland lands a few punches to the body, and the horn sounds. The two welterweights high five after an exciting and fun round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The fighters are ready and rearing to go to start off the second round, and they clap hands to initiate the proceedings. Thompson slaps a kick low, and Holland does the same. Thompson skips forward with a straight left hand, but Holland sees it coming and evades it. He does not, however, get out of the way from a high kick that slams him square in the face. Holland takes it on the jaw without budging, a kick that would fell lesser men, and stands firm until Thompson blitzes him. Holland escapes the worse of the damage and tries his own attack, and Thompson escapes in time. Leg kicks are traded fast and furiously, and Holland steps into strike and is countered on the way in. The alternating straight rushes lead to thrilling exchanges, and Thompson boots Holland in the face once more. Thompson pushes the pace and belts Holland with a long series of punches, and Holland fires back but gets rocked and bounces into the wall. Thompson lets him off the hook and does not blow his gas tank, and instead trades head kicks when Holland is ready to come back fighting. Holland counters a body kick with an overhand left, and Thompson checks a low kick. Thompson just misses with a hook kick, and Holland gives chase and walks into two straight punches. “Trailblazer” blazes forward and uses Thompson’s lunges to his advantage and tackles Thompson to the floor. Instead of playing on the ground, Holland stands back up, and invites Thompson to stand back up so they can keep throwing heavy leather. Thompson thanks him for this with a happy glove touch, and he spins with a wheel kick that just pushes past the hair. Thompson doles out a few more solid left hands and head kick, and Holland advances recklessly and puts his hands on his opponent as well. Holland knocks the karateka back and might have hurt him, but Thompson recovers and runs after Holland to lay into him as well. Thompson unleashes a spinning wheel kick that smashes into the head of his foe, and Holland wobbles back as Thompson gives him all he has. Holland tries to throw back with haymakers, and he does enough to make Thompson second-guess his approach. The terrific second frame comes to an end as Holland swings so hard, he falls over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson

Round 3
The welterweights are grinning from ear to ear, and they high five. Holland tells Thompson to slow down, and Thompson answers him with a high kick and whiffs with a hook kick. Holland jumps forward to break up the stance of his foe, and he settles for a body kick and one to the calf. Thompson whips a kick to the side, and he goes up top as Holland rolls with it and barely evades the worst of it. Thompson scores two solid left hands as Holland attempts to enter the pocket, and they trade kicks as well. Holland pushes forward to strike, and they fall over with another possible tackling takedown from “Trailblazer.” Thompson fights his way up, and they clap hands as they still do not want to take a breath and grapple. When they resume, Thompson lands a side kick and a second knocks Holland off his feet. Thompson lets him back up as well, and they high-five once more. Holland unleashes a low kick, and Thompson is sharper and more elusive as Holland’s hands go wide. Holland wings a head kick, and Thompson answers with a pair of punches and a spinning kick. A second spinning wheel kick misses the mark by a matter of inches, and Holland crashes forward and gets popped with a short left hook. Holland kicks low and swipes high, and Thompson blitzes him and scores a few times over the top. Holland charges, leading with elbows, and they wind up in a clinch that allows Thompson to knee his man in the side a few times. Thompson breaks free and fires off a few punches, and he reaches Holland at the end of a right hand that knocks the head back. Holland appears to be fading, and the punches from Thompson are doing more damage as he pours it on. Holland backs himself up to the wall, and he keeps a high guard up and takes several deep breaths. Holland comes out swinging, and Thompson meets him there and starts unloading on him. Holland takes everything on the chin, and he eats a spinning wheel kick and barely moves. Thompson keeps a bounce in his step, and he spins with another wheel kick. “Trailblazer” comes forward to strike, but he pulls back with his right hand. As the round ends, he walks away looking at the hand, which might be injured.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson

Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Holland puts on a poker face and smiles to engage. Thompson starts off with a slapping calf kick, and he pushes off the side of his heel on the chest. When Holland advances, Thompson cracks him with a hook kick, and Holland wears it incredibly well and walks Thompson down to throw hands. A tiring Holland ties Thompson up, and Miragliotta does not need much time before splitting them. Miragliotta does acknowledge that they did clash heads when closing in, which opened up a cut on the bridge of the nose. Thompson splits up and kicks the body, and this liver shot forces an immediate takedown out of his opponent. Holland does not complete it, and Thompson stands back and belts him in the liver one more time. Holland reels and charges for a takedown, and Thompson stops it and stands him up to work on his midsection. Thompson throws a right hand on the beltline, and Holland leans over and Miragliotta waves the fight off. As Holland protests, Miragliotta un-calls the fight and claims it was an accidental groin strike. Holland recovers, whether it was a foul or not, and they resume the action unexpectedly. Thompson knows his man is on the ropes and he kicks the liver twice, and spins with a wheel kick with a heel that drills right into the temple. Holland is hurt but still surviving, throwing a few punches but largely getting wrecked. “Wonderboy” aims two head kicks that do serious damage, and Holland absorbs another spinning wheel kick as Thompson is styling on him. Holland motions for him to come close to him to strike, and Thompson obliges with several punches and a low kick. Thompson fires a side kick to the liver and one to the upper chest, and he is teeing off on the wounded Holland. Holland is little more than a heavy bag at this point, as Thompson takes one or two back for every dozen or so. Thompson swings a spinning wheel kick that nearly knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet, but Holland not only survives, he throws back with a vengeance. Thompson takes several on the jaw and backs off, and he measures his damaged adversary with long kicks and punches. Thompson lines up a left hand that drops Holland to a knee, and he moves into the top position and lands a few punches. Instead of trying to finish the job, Thompson stands up, lets Holland get up, and walks off. The round ends. Holland again walks back to his corner, battered and bruised, and he signals to his team that his right hand is in dire trouble. It does not take more than a few seconds for Holland’s corner to inform Miragliotta that their fighter is done, and they call off the fight. It might seem like an anticlimactic ending to a sensational and dramatic battle, but Holland’s team allows him to live to fight another day. This battle will definitely go down among the greatest fights of this year, with 20 minutes of bloody violence and terrific skill crackling with intensity on display. Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira might be challenged for the top spot after this titanic scrap.
In his post-fight interview, “Wonderboy” says he feels 25, and he is in it for the long haul. At 39 years young after a fight like that, Thompson proves he is still a factor in the welterweight division. It’s anyone’s guess what is next for the all-star karateka, as he showed he has plenty of life left in his veins. When he competes again, we will certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Thompson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Thompson

The Official Result
Stephen Thompson def. Kevin Holland R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.

Considering Kevin Holland inside the distance/decision no action prop; won't bet moneyline

"I'm gonna go with Wonder Boy here I think his age is 100 gonna worry me I'm gonna wait for prop bets"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.

Holland wins by KO, rounds 2-3

"I like Holland here to actually finish the fight... second third round knockout win for Kevin Holland"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.

under 4.5 rounds; under 20 minutes on PrizePicks

"Kevin Holland's path to Victory is to fight in a way that he never fights so yeah plus money Steven Wonderboy Thompson I could be talked into that"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.

Holland by KO

"I think that Kevin Holland is one of these guys that you know he's kind of Hit or Miss but he's a guy that's very active... I think he's going to close the show Saturday night so I got Kevin …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.

Thompson by decision +400 worth a sprinkle

"I do lean Thompson here especially against another Striker he should showcase why he was so successful in the UFC by outmaneuvering Kevin Holland on the feet"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.

under 4.5 rounds at -175; under 20 minutes on PrizePicks

"I'm more drawn to the Stephen Wonderboy Thompson side here just on you know two Strikers maybe a little bit low volume on both sides and I could see Thompson edging this one out like I kind of think of …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing Thompson's lack of a backup plan if he faces trouble on the feet. He notes Holland can mix in grappling and has a reach advantage. He predicts Holland will use his goofy style to catch Thompson off guard and finish him by d'arce choke in round three.

Holland by submission (d'arce choke, round 3)

"I'm going with Kevin Holland"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Belal Muhammad

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Belal Muhammad	0	19 of 32	59%	51 of 67	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:52
Stephen Thompson	0	58 of 95	61%	171 of 271	7 of 9	77%	1	0	11:57

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Belal Muhammad	10 of 16	62%	28 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0:45
1	Stephen Thompson	44 of 72	61%	64 of 111	3 of 4	75%	0	3:07
2	Belal Muhammad	7 of 11	63%	12 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Stephen Thompson	10 of 16	62%	42 of 64	2 of 2	100%	1	4:11
3	Belal Muhammad	2 of 5	40%	11 of 15	0 of 1	0%	0	0:07
3	Stephen Thompson	4 of 7	57%	65 of 96	2 of 3	66%	0	4:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Belal Muhammad	19 of 32	59%	14 of 27	5 of 5	0 of 0	17 of 29	1 of 1	1 of 2
Stephen Thompson	58 of 95	61%	56 of 92	1 of 1	1 of 2	2 of 10	1 of 1	55 of 84

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Belal Muhammad	10 of 16	62%	8 of 14	2 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 13	1 of 1	1 of 2
1	Stephen Thompson	44 of 72	61%	42 of 69	1 of 1	1 of 2	2 of 7	1 of 1	41 of 64
2	Belal Muhammad	7 of 11	63%	5 of 9	2 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	10 of 16	62%	10 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	10 of 13
3	Belal Muhammad	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	4 of 7	57%	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 7

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson

Round 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.

1 unit on moneyline at +200

"i threw a full unit on bilal muhammad almost immediately"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.

decision

"give me a uh decision win for stephen thompson I don't like below muhammad in this spot"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.

"I think thompson's going to do a lot of the same thing even though he himself is getting a little bit older he still moves as good as anybody his striking is as good as anyone's"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.

Muhammad by decision or late stoppage; under on Thompson's significant strikes

"I'm going with Belal Muhammad to get the biggest win of his career... plus 200 on a guy who I know is gonna fight for my money."

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.

"i think this is a boring boring boring decision win for stephen thompson"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Stephen Thompson

The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.

"I am gonna lean more so with the decision around even money than the knockout here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.

"I like thompson here I think thompson is the rightful favorite um nobody really outstrikes thompson on the feets"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.

"gotta go with stephen thompson here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Gilbert Burns

Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Gilbert Burns	0	29 of 43	67%	101 of 126	3 of 6	50%	0	0	7:13
Stephen Thompson	0	19 of 53	35%	59 of 98	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Gilbert Burns	8 of 12	66%	29 of 36	1 of 2	50%	3:30
1	Stephen Thompson	3 of 4	75%	18 of 19	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Gilbert Burns	10 of 18	55%	27 of 35	1 of 2	50%	0:32
2	Stephen Thompson	9 of 29	31%	19 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Gilbert Burns	11 of 13	84%	45 of 55	1 of 2	50%	3:11
3	Stephen Thompson	7 of 20	35%	22 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Gilbert Burns	29 of 43	67%	17 of 29	2 of 4	10 of 10	16 of 30	0 of 0	13 of 13
Stephen Thompson	19 of 53	35%	14 of 44	2 of 6	3 of 3	19 of 53	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Gilbert Burns	8 of 12	66%	6 of 9	2 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 7	0 of 0	5 of 5
1	Stephen Thompson	3 of 4	75%	2 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Gilbert Burns	10 of 18	55%	2 of 9	0 of 1	8 of 8	10 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	9 of 29	31%	5 of 21	2 of 6	2 of 2	9 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Gilbert Burns	11 of 13	84%	9 of 11	0 of 0	2 of 2	3 of 5	0 of 0	8 of 8
3	Stephen Thompson	7 of 20	35%	7 of 20	0 of 0	0 of 0	7 of 20	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of a potential welterweight title eliminator between recent challenger Burns (19-4, 12-4 UFC) and “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-4-1, 11-4-1 UFC). This interesting style matchup that presents a striker against a grappler – but that grappler has heavy hands – could provide for some intriguing action. Looking on is referee Marc Goddard, and there is nothing but respect between these two 170-pounders who touch gloves to seal the cage. Thompson keeps a traditionally wide stance, and Burns mimics the same stance as the two try to find a way in. Neither throw a single strike for the first 45 seconds, when Thompson lands a light leg kick. Burns ducks down to throw an overhand right, and he tries to chase “Wonderboy” down and land a huge shot and a head kick, but they come up short. Burns dives low for a single, and Thompson defends against the fence and fights off a subsequent double leg takedown attempt as well. Burns continues to grind in this position as the crowd starts to turn on the fighters, so Burns knees Thompson in the thigh a few times. This stalemate continues as Goddard calls for them to work, so Burns drops down for another takedown try that comes up short. Burns picks up a single and lifts Thompson up to set him down, where he finally gets the takedown he was seeking. Burns hold on from a half guard position as he looks to tie up an arm-triangle choke, and when “Wonderboy” scoots to the fence, Burns lands a few right hands on him. Burns has the karateka locked down in this position, keeping him grounded as Thompson tries to work his way up the fence. Thompson posts off a hand to get to his knees, and Burns thumps him in the chest with a hard knee. Burns delivers right hands on the chin until Thompson stands up, and the two men break away with seconds to go. As Burns charges in, Thompson clips Burns with a right hand, and drops Burns to a knee. When Burns stands up, Thompson fires off a head kick, and the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The glove touch begins the second round, and “Wonderboy” starts off with a solid kick to Burns’ calf. Thompson switches stances and avoids a head kick to come up short with a spinning back kick of his own. Thompson whiffs on a series of punches, as Burns backs off to a safe distance before re-engaging to fire off a right hand. Thompson gets off a kick to the body, and Burns returns fire with a leg kick. “Wonderboy” irritates his foe with a few side kicks to the leg and body, and he parries a leaping Burns with ease. Thompson’s toes reach the midsection when he kicks, and he stands tall when Burns kicks his thigh back. Thompson slings a head kick that gets blocked in time, and a spinning heel kick gets through the guard and may have hurt Burns. Burns charges like a man possessed, throwing caution to the wind and catching Thompson on the end of a right hand. “Wonderboy” hops out of the way and stings Burns with a straight left hand, splitting the guard and making Burns retreat. The karate fighter kicks the lead leg, follows it with a few punches, and ignores a leg kick that comes his direction. When Burns advances, Thompson is there with a side kick to the chest to push the Brazilian back. Thompson pulls his leg free when Burns advances to take him down, and he circles out to crack Burns with a right hand. Thompson stays elusive and defensive as he reaches a right hand out, and Burns intercepts him with a leg kick and a right hand. Burns leaps forward and hits a takedown from a long distance, putting Thompson on his seat against the fence. Thompson returns to a knee at the 10-second clapper, and both men start clubbing each other with right hands like a grounded version of Frye-Takayama until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Thompson

Round 3
The welterweights touch both hands to begin the last round, and “Wonderboy” steps back to get off a head kick that is partially blocked. A side kick that follows splits Burns’ guard and smacks him in the face, and Thompson looks to follow it up with a few lunging punches. Burns walks right into a right hand, and Burns smiles at him and gets punched a few more times as his smile fades. Thompson has Burns backpedaling as he lands whenever he throws a strike, and Burns is stuck watching the karateka do work on him. Burns takes a flush spinning heel kick to the side of the head and drops to a knee, and when he scrambles back to his feet, he throws hands with reckless abandon. Thompson welcomes it and lands a few more strikes as he backs away to a safe distance, and Burns crashes in to try to take him down. The attempt fails, but the redoubled effort for Burns puts Thompson on his back in side control. With Burns content to sit in this position as precious seconds tick off the clock, both men punch one another in the side again and again. Burns holds tight to keep “Wonderboy” stuck on the ground, pulling Thompson’s wrist out when the American looks to stand back up. Burns embraces the grind to pepper Thompson with short left hands, racking up control time and scoring points with these punches. Thompson tries to pull himself back up, but Burns is on him like fly paper until he wraps his arm around Thompson’s neck. Thompson sits down instead of falling into this choke, and Burns elects to blatantly punch him several times to the back of the head and neck. The crowd does not appreciate this final exchange, and the fans shower the Brazilian with boos as the fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.

Stephen Thompson by stoppage or decision no action

"i think wonder boy's just gonna light up gilbert uh i have wonderboy in my lineup"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.

third round knockout

"i say thompson wins by knockout should be a very fun fight give me a third round knockout for stephen thompson"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.

"i think stephen thompson paints him another masterpiece on him i think he's far too elusive he's gonna strike from far distance he's got better cardio better speed better range"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.

"i got to go with wonder boy as the pick"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.

"i love steven thompson this fight he's in my lineup"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.

Thompson by KO (+300), Thompson round 3 (+1200), Thompson inside the distance

"i am on that wonderboy thompson side here i think this is a spot for him to go out there and just absolutely style on gilbert burns"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.

"i'm with you i think uh if it was five rounds at this price it would be hide your kids hide your wife and put everything on stephen thompson"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)

Stephen Thompson

The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.

"29-28 stephen thompson i think gilbert burns is going to go out there have a real decent first round against wonder boy thompson"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Geoff Neal

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephen Thompson	0	171 of 406	42%	191 of 428	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Geoff Neal	0	85 of 179	47%	110 of 205	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:46

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Stephen Thompson	25 of 66	37%	25 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Geoff Neal	7 of 30	23%	7 of 30	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Stephen Thompson	30 of 70	42%	36 of 76	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Geoff Neal	15 of 25	60%	22 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:30
3	Stephen Thompson	33 of 80	41%	41 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Geoff Neal	15 of 33	45%	25 of 43	0 of 0	---	1:32
4	Stephen Thompson	34 of 75	45%	35 of 76	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Geoff Neal	15 of 31	48%	18 of 34	0 of 0	---	1:04
5	Stephen Thompson	49 of 115	42%	54 of 121	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Geoff Neal	33 of 60	55%	38 of 65	0 of 0	---	0:40

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephen Thompson	171 of 406	42%	124 of 354	41 of 46	6 of 6	165 of 398	6 of 8	0 of 0
Geoff Neal	85 of 179	47%	71 of 161	8 of 11	6 of 7	79 of 169	6 of 10	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephen Thompson	25 of 66	37%	15 of 54	7 of 9	3 of 3	25 of 66	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Geoff Neal	7 of 30	23%	6 of 29	0 of 0	1 of 1	7 of 29	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	30 of 70	42%	17 of 57	12 of 12	1 of 1	30 of 70	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Geoff Neal	15 of 25	60%	8 of 16	4 of 5	3 of 4	14 of 23	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	33 of 80	41%	27 of 72	6 of 8	0 of 0	30 of 76	3 of 4	0 of 0
3	Geoff Neal	15 of 33	45%	13 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0	14 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
4	Stephen Thompson	34 of 75	45%	25 of 65	9 of 10	0 of 0	32 of 72	2 of 3	0 of 0
4	Geoff Neal	15 of 31	48%	13 of 28	1 of 2	1 of 1	13 of 29	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Stephen Thompson	49 of 115	42%	40 of 106	7 of 7	2 of 2	48 of 114	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Geoff Neal	33 of 60	55%	31 of 57	1 of 2	1 of 1	31 of 57	2 of 3	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal to win the main event, rounding out his lineup. He expresses high confidence, stating 'I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done.' No specific reasoning is given beyond confidence.

"I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal over Stephen Thompson, citing Neal's youth (7 years younger), higher volume, and ability to close distance in the smaller cage. He notes Thompson's low volume in past fights and his history of being dropped (four times in UFC). Brady predicts Neal will knock out Thompson in the second round, emphasizing Neal's power and speed advantage.

knockout in second round

"i'm gonna say he knocks out steven thompson in the first i want to say second round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

The host believes Wonderboy's karate stance, in-and-out movement, and counter-striking will give Geoff Neal problems. He notes Neal has never faced a striker of Thompson's caliber and may struggle with the range and five-round pace. The host predicts a late finish (round 4 or 5) as Neal's gas tank fades.

Wonderboy by TKO +300, Wonderboy inside distance +275, round 4 or 5 finish props

"i think wonderboy is going to give him a bit of a headache dealing with that type of karate stance style that in and out movement"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Stephen Thompson

The Guru picks Stephen Thompson, citing his superior striking and movement. He believes Thompson's footwork and reach advantage will neutralize Geoff Neal's power, especially over five rounds. He notes Neal has gassed in past fights and has only beaten plodding strikers, while Thompson's unorthodox style will be too much. He predicts a 49-46 unanimous decision, with Neal possibly winning the first round but Thompson dominating the rest.

Predicts a 49-46 decision, says the fight will be boring after the first round, and mentions that if Thompson wins and Masvidal beats Colby, a rematch could happen.

"I think stephen thompson is going to get the job done far superior striker... I think wonder boy is going to pick him apart the last four i think it's going to be very boring 4-1 stephen thompson 49-46"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Vicente Luque

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephen Thompson	1	138 of 242	57%	138 of 242	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:11
Vicente Luque	0	77 of 175	44%	77 of 175	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Stephen Thompson	0	32 of 50	64%	32 of 50	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Vicente Luque	0	38 of 67	56%	38 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:01
2	Stephen Thompson	0	51 of 91	56%	51 of 91	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Vicente Luque	0	25 of 61	40%	25 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Stephen Thompson	1	55 of 101	54%	55 of 101	0 of 0	---	0:11
3	Vicente Luque	0	14 of 47	29%	14 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephen Thompson	138 of 242	57%	111 of 212	21 of 23	6 of 7	126 of 227	3 of 3	9 of 12
Vicente Luque	77 of 175	44%	26 of 107	9 of 18	42 of 50	76 of 172	1 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephen Thompson	32 of 50	64%	25 of 42	3 of 3	4 of 5	30 of 48	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Vicente Luque	38 of 67	56%	10 of 35	6 of 6	22 of 26	37 of 65	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Stephen Thompson	51 of 91	56%	43 of 82	7 of 8	1 of 1	50 of 90	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Vicente Luque	25 of 61	40%	9 of 34	2 of 9	14 of 18	25 of 60	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Stephen Thompson	55 of 101	54%	43 of 88	11 of 12	1 of 1	46 of 89	0 of 0	9 of 12
3	Vicente Luque	14 of 47	29%	7 of 38	1 of 3	6 of 6	14 of 47	0 of 0	0 of 0

View all 22 fights

Robert Whittaker - Fight History

SCHED vs Nikita Krylov

UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026

LOSS vs Reinier de Ridder

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Robert Whittaker	1	66 of 142	46%	70 of 146	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:36
Reinier de Ridder	0	67 of 145	46%	192 of 282	2 of 15	13%	0	0	9:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Robert Whittaker	0	20 of 34	58%	21 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Reinier de Ridder	0	15 of 35	42%	21 of 42	0 of 3	0%	0:12
2	Robert Whittaker	0	9 of 27	33%	9 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Reinier de Ridder	0	16 of 38	42%	29 of 58	1 of 3	33%	2:04
3	Robert Whittaker	1	20 of 28	71%	21 of 29	0 of 0	---	0:32
3	Reinier de Ridder	0	13 of 30	43%	32 of 51	1 of 2	50%	2:39
4	Robert Whittaker	0	6 of 22	27%	8 of 24	0 of 0	---	0:04
4	Reinier de Ridder	0	14 of 24	58%	37 of 48	0 of 3	0%	1:56
5	Robert Whittaker	0	11 of 31	35%	11 of 31	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Reinier de Ridder	0	9 of 18	50%	73 of 83	0 of 4	0%	2:15

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Robert Whittaker	66 of 142	46%	62 of 135	4 of 7	0 of 0	51 of 123	4 of 5	11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder	67 of 145	46%	41 of 105	26 of 40	0 of 0	54 of 128	9 of 11	4 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Robert Whittaker	20 of 34	58%	19 of 33	1 of 1	0 of 0	19 of 33	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Reinier de Ridder	15 of 35	42%	6 of 19	9 of 16	0 of 0	10 of 30	5 of 5	0 of 0
2	Robert Whittaker	9 of 27	33%	8 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0	9 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Reinier de Ridder	16 of 38	42%	12 of 32	4 of 6	0 of 0	15 of 36	0 of 0	1 of 2
3	Robert Whittaker	20 of 28	71%	20 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0	8 of 13	1 of 1	11 of 14
3	Reinier de Ridder	13 of 30	43%	10 of 24	3 of 6	0 of 0	10 of 26	0 of 0	3 of 4
4	Robert Whittaker	6 of 22	27%	6 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 0
4	Reinier de Ridder	14 of 24	58%	10 of 18	4 of 6	0 of 0	12 of 21	2 of 3	0 of 0
5	Robert Whittaker	11 of 31	35%	9 of 26	2 of 5	0 of 0	10 of 30	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Reinier de Ridder	9 of 18	50%	3 of 12	6 of 6	0 of 0	7 of 15	2 of 3	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout

"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'

"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4

"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke

"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev

Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev	0	2 of 2	100%	2 of 2	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Robert Whittaker	0	3 of 4	75%	25 of 31	2 of 4	50%	1	0	3:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Khamzat Chimaev	0	2 of 2	100%	2 of 2	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Robert Whittaker	0	3 of 4	75%	25 of 31	2 of 4	50%	1	0	3:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Khamzat Chimaev	2 of 2	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
Robert Whittaker	3 of 4	75%	2 of 3	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Khamzat Chimaev	2 of 2	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Robert Whittaker	3 of 4	75%	2 of 3	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.

"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round

"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220

"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)

"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance

"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)

"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round

"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)

Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220

"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Ikram Aliskerov

KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Robert Whittaker	1	14 of 21	66%	14 of 21	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03
Ikram Aliskerov	0	5 of 15	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Robert Whittaker	1	14 of 21	66%	14 of 21	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03
1	Ikram Aliskerov	0	5 of 15	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Robert Whittaker	14 of 21	66%	12 of 19	0 of 0	2 of 2	12 of 18	0 of 0	2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov	5 of 15	33%	3 of 10	1 of 4	1 of 1	5 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Robert Whittaker	14 of 21	66%	12 of 19	0 of 0	2 of 2	12 of 18	0 of 0	2 of 3
1	Ikram Aliskerov	5 of 15	33%	3 of 10	1 of 4	1 of 1	5 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns

"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed

"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)

"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Paulo Costa

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Robert Whittaker	0	95 of 175	54%	95 of 175	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Paulo Costa	0	67 of 151	44%	67 of 151	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Robert Whittaker	38 of 62	61%	38 of 62	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Paulo Costa	27 of 49	55%	27 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Robert Whittaker	32 of 55	58%	32 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Paulo Costa	26 of 54	48%	26 of 54	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Robert Whittaker	25 of 58	43%	25 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Paulo Costa	14 of 48	29%	14 of 48	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Robert Whittaker	95 of 175	54%	63 of 143	4 of 4	28 of 28	95 of 172	0 of 3	0 of 0
Paulo Costa	67 of 151	44%	39 of 117	8 of 12	20 of 22	67 of 151	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Robert Whittaker	38 of 62	61%	26 of 50	1 of 1	11 of 11	38 of 61	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Paulo Costa	27 of 49	55%	16 of 38	4 of 4	7 of 7	27 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Robert Whittaker	32 of 55	58%	20 of 43	3 of 3	9 of 9	32 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Paulo Costa	26 of 54	48%	16 of 43	2 of 3	8 of 8	26 of 54	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Robert Whittaker	25 of 58	43%	17 of 50	0 of 0	8 of 8	25 of 56	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Paulo Costa	14 of 48	29%	7 of 36	2 of 5	5 of 7	14 of 48	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision

"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)

"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)

"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.

"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Dricus du Plessis

TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis	0	31 of 70	44%	32 of 71	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:23
Robert Whittaker	1	62 of 104	59%	74 of 118	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:57

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Dricus du Plessis	0	22 of 44	50%	23 of 45	1 of 1	100%	0:23
1	Robert Whittaker	0	29 of 54	53%	41 of 68	1 of 1	100%	0:55
2	Dricus du Plessis	0	9 of 26	34%	9 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Robert Whittaker	1	33 of 50	66%	33 of 50	0 of 0	---	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Dricus du Plessis	31 of 70	44%	23 of 59	2 of 4	6 of 7	29 of 68	2 of 2	0 of 0
Robert Whittaker	62 of 104	59%	38 of 77	11 of 13	13 of 14	41 of 77	8 of 10	13 of 17

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Dricus du Plessis	22 of 44	50%	16 of 35	2 of 4	4 of 5	21 of 43	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Robert Whittaker	29 of 54	53%	13 of 36	9 of 10	7 of 8	21 of 44	0 of 0	8 of 10
2	Dricus du Plessis	9 of 26	34%	7 of 24	0 of 0	2 of 2	8 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Robert Whittaker	33 of 50	66%	25 of 41	2 of 3	6 of 6	20 of 33	8 of 10	5 of 7

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage

"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout

"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO

"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him

"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)

Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision

"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision

"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds

"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26

"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Marvin Vettori

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Robert Whittaker	0	74 of 166	44%	74 of 166	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:12
Marvin Vettori	0	33 of 116	28%	38 of 121	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:28

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Robert Whittaker	22 of 56	39%	22 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Marvin Vettori	14 of 41	34%	16 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:09
2	Robert Whittaker	25 of 53	47%	25 of 53	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Marvin Vettori	10 of 45	22%	11 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:07
3	Robert Whittaker	27 of 57	47%	27 of 57	1 of 1	100%	0:12
3	Marvin Vettori	9 of 30	30%	11 of 32	0 of 1	0%	0:12

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Robert Whittaker	74 of 166	44%	49 of 138	6 of 9	19 of 19	72 of 163	0 of 0	2 of 3
Marvin Vettori	33 of 116	28%	15 of 94	7 of 10	11 of 12	33 of 116	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Robert Whittaker	22 of 56	39%	15 of 48	1 of 2	6 of 6	22 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Marvin Vettori	14 of 41	34%	6 of 33	5 of 5	3 of 3	14 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Robert Whittaker	25 of 53	47%	17 of 43	3 of 5	5 of 5	25 of 53	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Marvin Vettori	10 of 45	22%	4 of 36	1 of 3	5 of 6	10 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Robert Whittaker	27 of 57	47%	17 of 47	2 of 2	8 of 8	25 of 54	0 of 0	2 of 3
3	Marvin Vettori	9 of 30	30%	5 of 25	1 of 2	3 of 3	9 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win

"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision

"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)

"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)

"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27

"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Israel Adesanya

Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Israel Adesanya	1	79 of 169	46%	98 of 188	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
Robert Whittaker	0	59 of 136	43%	74 of 151	4 of 10	40%	0	0	3:40

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Israel Adesanya	1	18 of 34	52%	18 of 34	0 of 0	---	0:01
1	Robert Whittaker	0	9 of 21	42%	9 of 21	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	Israel Adesanya	0	16 of 41	39%	24 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Robert Whittaker	0	12 of 33	36%	17 of 38	1 of 1	100%	0:52
3	Israel Adesanya	0	17 of 33	51%	17 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Robert Whittaker	0	12 of 28	42%	12 of 28	1 of 2	50%	0:30
4	Israel Adesanya	0	15 of 39	38%	15 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Robert Whittaker	0	16 of 35	45%	19 of 38	1 of 1	100%	0:40
5	Israel Adesanya	0	13 of 22	59%	24 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Robert Whittaker	0	10 of 19	52%	17 of 26	1 of 4	25%	1:38

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Israel Adesanya	79 of 169	46%	36 of 108	14 of 23	29 of 38	77 of 167	2 of 2	0 of 0
Robert Whittaker	59 of 136	43%	38 of 105	8 of 11	13 of 20	54 of 130	5 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Israel Adesanya	18 of 34	52%	3 of 14	4 of 6	11 of 14	18 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Robert Whittaker	9 of 21	42%	3 of 12	1 of 1	5 of 8	9 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Israel Adesanya	16 of 41	39%	9 of 30	0 of 2	7 of 9	16 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Robert Whittaker	12 of 33	36%	7 of 27	3 of 4	2 of 2	12 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Israel Adesanya	17 of 33	51%	11 of 24	3 of 4	3 of 5	16 of 32	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Robert Whittaker	12 of 28	42%	9 of 20	1 of 3	2 of 5	12 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Israel Adesanya	15 of 39	38%	6 of 26	5 of 7	4 of 6	15 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Robert Whittaker	16 of 35	45%	10 of 29	3 of 3	3 of 3	13 of 32	3 of 3	0 of 0
5	Israel Adesanya	13 of 22	59%	7 of 14	2 of 4	4 of 4	12 of 21	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Robert Whittaker	10 of 19	52%	9 of 17	0 of 0	1 of 2	8 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker

"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout

"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105

"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225

"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105

"i think it's going to be the same old thing"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision

"i'm going with israel desanya"

THE MMA GURU

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