Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
Career Averages - Israel Adesanya
Dricus du Plessis
Israel Adesanya
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 45 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 37 of 47 | 78% | 529 of 567 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 21:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 131 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 79 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 156 of 164 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 76 of 85 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 19 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 87 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 37 of 47 | 78% | 28 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 19 of 22 | 86% | 19 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)
Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.
Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.
The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.
The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.
Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 147 of 314 | 46% | 149 of 316 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 128 of 263 | 48% | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 39 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 23 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 147 of 314 | 46% | 50 of 193 | 45 of 59 | 52 of 62 | 147 of 314 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 128 of 263 | 48% | 90 of 212 | 29 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 128 of 263 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 16 of 49 | 32% | 10 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 60 | 51% | 7 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 79 | 49% | 11 of 46 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 39 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 24 of 47 | 51% | 18 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 21 of 66 | 31% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 28 of 51 | 54% | 23 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 36 of 64 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 31 of 62 | 50% | 24 of 54 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.
Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.
Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.
Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 90 of 197 | 45% | 99 of 206 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 105 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 90 of 197 | 45% | 61 of 155 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 29 | 80 of 184 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 97 of 203 | 47% | 63 of 165 | 26 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 92 of 198 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 37 | 43% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 25 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 30 | 56% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 75 | 41% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 40 of 83 | 48% | 25 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 24 of 45 | 53% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 173 of 408 | 42% | 183 of 419 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 137 of 354 | 38% | 140 of 358 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 29 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 34 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 29 of 73 | 39% | 31 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 53 of 99 | 53% | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 35 of 86 | 40% | 35 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 173 of 408 | 42% | 157 of 387 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 173 of 408 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 137 of 354 | 38% | 81 of 283 | 32 of 37 | 24 of 34 | 134 of 348 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 34 of 75 | 45% | 28 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 18 of 51 | 35% | 8 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 62 | 35% | 20 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 26 of 60 | 43% | 11 of 42 | 9 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 87 | 35% | 29 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 84 | 34% | 13 of 64 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 85 | 38% | 32 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 29 of 73 | 39% | 22 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Dricus du Plessis | 53 of 99 | 53% | 48 of 93 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Strickland | 35 of 86 | 40% | 27 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)
Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)
The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.
Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.
Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.
Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.
Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.
Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.
I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 43 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:30 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 71 of 115 | 61% | 84 of 132 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:28 |
| Derek Brunson | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Derek Brunson | 1 | 62 of 101 | 61% | 68 of 108 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 37 of 84 | 44% | 27 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 71 of 115 | 61% | 55 of 97 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 53 of 95 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Derek Brunson | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Derek Brunson | 62 of 101 | 61% | 49 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 50 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.
Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.
Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.
Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.
Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.
Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 58 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 86 of 147 | 58% | 117 of 197 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 5:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 60 of 85 | 70% | 82 of 126 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 38 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darren Till | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 35 of 70 | 50% | 26 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 86 of 147 | 58% | 69 of 123 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 17 | 28 of 59 | 25 of 40 | 33 of 48 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Darren Till | 60 of 85 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 38 | 31 of 41 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 18 of 33 | 54% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Till | 16 of 34 | 47% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.
Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.
Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.
Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.
Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.
Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.
Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 82 of 150 | 54% | 98 of 167 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 113 of 212 | 53% | 123 of 222 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 25 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 39 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 40 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 60 of 111 | 54% | 61 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 82 of 150 | 54% | 55 of 113 | 21 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 69 of 132 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Tavares | 113 of 212 | 53% | 79 of 169 | 17 of 21 | 17 of 22 | 97 of 192 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 10 of 13 | 76% | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Tavares | 14 of 26 | 53% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 33 of 59 | 55% | 19 of 41 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 39 of 75 | 52% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 66 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 39 of 78 | 50% | 28 of 62 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 60 of 111 | 54% | 41 of 89 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 106 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.
Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.
Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.
Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.
The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.
Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.
Israel Adesanya - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 58 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 36 of 70 | 51% | 52 of 90 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 37 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 21 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 42 of 75 | 56% | 22 of 54 | 8 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 36 of 70 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 42 | 57% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 33 | 54% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 27 of 47 | 57% | 26 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 19 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.
Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.
Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.
Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.
The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.
Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.
The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.
Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 1 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 15 of 31 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 20 of 44 | 45% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 6 of 6 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.
Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.
Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.
James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.
Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.
Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 90 of 197 | 45% | 99 of 206 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 105 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 90 of 197 | 45% | 61 of 155 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 29 | 80 of 184 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 97 of 203 | 47% | 63 of 165 | 26 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 92 of 198 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 37 | 43% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 25 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 30 | 56% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 75 | 41% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 40 of 83 | 48% | 25 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 24 of 45 | 53% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 94 of 271 | 34% | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 137 of 259 | 52% | 137 of 259 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 94 of 271 | 34% | 22 of 154 | 38 of 60 | 34 of 57 | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 137 of 259 | 52% | 85 of 186 | 45 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 121 of 235 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 12 of 39 | 30% | 1 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 12 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 27 of 52 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 28 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 64 | 31% | 3 of 35 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 17 | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 57 | 36% | 4 of 27 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 13 | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 20 of 41 | 48% | 12 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 38 of 63 | 60% | 22 of 46 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 60 | 35% | 4 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 36 of 71 | 50% | 18 of 44 | 16 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)
Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.
Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.
Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.
Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.
Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 49 of 85 | 57% | 49 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 41 of 96 | 42% | 41 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 49 of 85 | 57% | 8 of 28 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 36 | 48 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 41 of 96 | 42% | 18 of 61 | 14 of 24 | 9 of 11 | 40 of 93 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 20 of 31 | 64% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 21 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 15 of 38 | 39% | 3 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 29 of 54 | 53% | 7 of 24 | 12 of 15 | 10 of 15 | 28 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 26 of 58 | 44% | 15 of 39 | 9 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.
Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.
Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.
Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.
Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.
Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.
Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.
Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 86 of 162 | 53% | 119 of 209 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 91 of 157 | 57% | 140 of 214 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 33 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 26 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 86 of 162 | 53% | 41 of 103 | 21 of 29 | 24 of 30 | 77 of 148 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 10 |
| Israel Adesanya | 91 of 157 | 57% | 42 of 89 | 27 of 33 | 22 of 35 | 76 of 139 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 6 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 23 of 41 | 56% | 1 of 12 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 44 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 36 | 47% | 12 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 25 | 56% | 7 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Israel Adesanya | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 15 of 29 | 51% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 9 of 15 | 60% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 28 of 37 | 75% | 18 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-130), Pereira (+110)
Round 1
At long last, the main event is here. The middleweight championship will be on the line for two men that know one another intimately. This will be their second meeting in the cage, but fourth across combat sports, and Pereira (7-1, 4-0 UFC) is 3-0 thus far. The once-dominant champion Adesanya (23-2, 12-2 UFC) met his match last November, falling to a salvo of strikes in the fifth round in a fight he was winning. Needing no further introduction or hype, the two stand directly in front of one another as referee Dan Miragliotta gives the final instructions as the two do not break eye contact. The match begins with no glove touch, and Pereira lashes out first with a low kick. Adesanya responds with a few body kicks, and he kicks the calf as well. Pereira strikes the low leg again, and they trade kicks to this target and this target alone. The pace is slow and deliberate, with the middleweights well out of punching range. Pereira gets off a low kick, and Adesanya slaps him in the face with his foot. Pereira scores a few more leg kicks, and he does not flinch any time Adesanya manages to land on him. Pereira slides his foot up Adesanya’s shoulder with a head kick, but Adesanya dodges it well enough to not let it strike him in the face. Pereira jabs the body and kicks at the lead leg, and he dips back from a looping one-two. The former champ gets off a pair of body kicks, and Pereira continues his assault on the former champ’s calf. Adesanya whips another kick to the ribcage, and he slams a few kicks to the Brazilian’s inside leg. “The Last Stylebender” strikes the body with his shin, and Pereira kicks low and high – the second misses, and the crowd gasps. Adesanya looks to split the guard, but Pereira protects himself and scores a heavy calf kick. The action-free round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Round 2
When the second round begins, Adesanya fires off several high kicks that Pereira blocks or dodges. Adesanya sits down on a calf kick, and Pereira nods at him. Pereira absorbs a head kick and nods, and he walks Adesanya down and starts slugging it out with him. The Brazilian wings huge punches, and Adesanya eats a few of them and backs off to bounce off the wall. Pereira corners him, but he lets him off the hook when Adesanya gets off a good shot. Adesanya begins to lead the dance again, with several kicks from his rear leg to the midsection and raised guard. Pereira attacks both calves with kicks as Adesanya switches stances, and “The Last Stylebender” reaches him with a few punches. One jab in response from Pereira knocks Adesanya back with much more emphasis behind it. Adesanya winds up with a right hook, and Pereira frowns and resets to keep pounding on Adesanya’s calf. They fire jabs at one another from a wide distance, and Adesanya slams his shin on Pereira’s inner thigh. Adesanya clips Pereira with a clean left hook, and Pereira walks through it and two follow-up punches to aim a right hand down Broadway. Adesanya strings a few punches to the body and one to the head, and he skirts back as a low kick comes at him. Pereira lands another low, and Adesanya counters him with an overhand right. They come together and throw hands, with Adesanya the one to break and escape as Pereira walks him down. The champion stuns Adesanya with a calf kick, and Adesanya is compromised. Adesanya falls back to the cage, barely able to stand up, and Pereira lays into him with a brutal series of body shots and a knee. Adesanya desperately fires off a right hand to back Pereira off, and Pereira reels but stands back up. Adesanya connects with one second right hand flush on the temple, and “Poatan” collapses to the ground like a ton of bricks. Before Miragliotta can reach them, Adesanya lands one more shot for good measure out of the playbook of Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping, and Pereira is completely unconscious, dreaming of his ancestors. Adesanya stands up and mocks Pereira’s bow-and-arrow move from before and motions to fire three arrows at the fallen Brazilian. Incredible! Adesanya has done it, exacting some modicum of revenge on the man to beat him three times before. The building erupts as Adesanya celebrates his triumph, and Pereira is out for a while and eventually comes to. “The Last Stylebender” claims the microphone and gives a motivational speech about the thrill of victory, imploring everyone to have this feeling at least once in their life. Whether Adesanya moves on to challenge new opponents vying for his throne or if they set up the rubber match for all the marbles, we will be certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Israel Adesanya def. Alex Pereira R2 4:21 via KO (Punches)
Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.
Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.
The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 116 of 230 | 50% | 163 of 277 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 90 of 157 | 57% | 141 of 217 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 35 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 116 of 230 | 50% | 60 of 165 | 26 of 31 | 30 of 34 | 114 of 226 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 90 of 157 | 57% | 36 of 89 | 32 of 40 | 22 of 28 | 78 of 143 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 48 | 45% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 18 of 28 | 64% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 28 of 48 | 58% | 12 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 17 of 36 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 26 | 76% | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.
Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.
Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.
Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Who knows!!