Career Averages - Casey O'Neill
Career Averages - Luana Santos
Casey O'Neill
Luana Santos
Casey O'Neill - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 54 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8 of 33 | 24% | 3 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.
Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.
Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.
Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.
Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.
The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.
Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.
Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 83 of 193 | 43% | 113 of 227 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 41 of 97 | 42% | 46 of 102 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 28 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 56 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 83 of 193 | 43% | 60 of 163 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 11 | 69 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 41 of 97 | 42% | 26 of 75 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 94 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 62 | 40% | 19 of 51 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 34 of 77 | 44% | 26 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)
Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.
Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.
The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.
Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 145 of 349 | 41% | 151 of 355 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 137 of 264 | 51% | 137 of 264 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 113 | 41% | 48 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 43 of 96 | 44% | 43 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 51 of 119 | 42% | 55 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 47 of 117 | 40% | 48 of 118 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 145 of 349 | 41% | 123 of 321 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 124 of 321 | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 137 of 264 | 51% | 108 of 226 | 24 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 129 of 254 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 113 | 41% | 37 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 108 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 43 of 96 | 44% | 35 of 85 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 51 of 119 | 42% | 44 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 46 of 112 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 36 of 70 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 47 of 117 | 40% | 42 of 111 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 101 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 47 of 84 | 55% | 37 of 71 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 79 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.
Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.
Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.
Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.
Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.
O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.
Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.
Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 120 of 358 | 33% | 148 of 390 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 229 of 393 | 58% | 230 of 395 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 44 of 135 | 32% | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 130 | 55% | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 35 of 118 | 29% | 40 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 86 of 142 | 60% | 86 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 41 of 105 | 39% | 64 of 132 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 72 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 120 of 358 | 33% | 98 of 330 | 20 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 112 of 347 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 229 of 393 | 58% | 187 of 348 | 22 of 25 | 20 of 20 | 225 of 387 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 44 of 135 | 32% | 40 of 129 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 130 | 55% | 55 of 111 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 35 of 118 | 29% | 28 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 86 of 142 | 60% | 73 of 129 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 84 of 140 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 41 of 105 | 39% | 30 of 92 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 95 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 71 of 121 | 58% | 59 of 108 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 69 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.
Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.
Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.
O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.
Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 52 of 110 | 47% | 128 of 209 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 29 of 41 | 70% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 26 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 40 of 63 | 63% | 32 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 52 of 110 | 47% | 46 of 101 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 29 of 41 | 70% | 23 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 43 of 77 | 55% | 41 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 48 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.
Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.
I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.
Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 71 of 129 | 55% | 176 of 246 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 5:42 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 41 of 65 | 63% | 76 of 103 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 63 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 38 of 50 | 76% | 68 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 74 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Lara Procópio | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 71 of 129 | 55% | 41 of 97 | 23 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 94 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 23 |
| Lara Procópio | 41 of 65 | 63% | 17 of 40 | 15 of 16 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 49 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 26 of 67 | 38% | 12 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 32 of 50 | 64% | 13 of 30 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 38 of 50 | 76% | 25 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 |
| Lara Procópio | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lara Procópio | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lara Procópio, emphasizing her technical jiu-jitsu and high fight IQ. He compares Casey O'Neill to Paige VanZant, athletic but not technical. He believes Procópio can submit O'Neill or control her on the ground. He has Procópio in his DraftKings lineup and placed a bet on her to win by stoppage with decision no action.
Big Brady favors Procópio due to her well-rounded skills, better striking volume, superior cardio, and ground game. He notes O'Neill's striking defense is poor and her win over Shannon Dobson is overrated because Dobson had zero takedown defense. He expects Procópio to mix takedowns and win a decision.
Cody picks Procópio, citing her striking volume, grappling, and durability. He notes O'Neill's limited striking and reliance on takedowns, which Procópio can defend. Cody believes Procópio's well-rounded game will be too much for the undefeated but inexperienced O'Neill.
Daniel Levi picks Lara Procópio, expecting her to dominate the majority of the fight. He notes that she is a Nova União black belt with good performances against Carol Rosa and Molly McCann. However, he warns that she must be careful of O'Neill's submission attempts, as Molly McCann had a deep armbar on her. He predicts a decision win for Procópio.
Jacob picks Casey O'Neill, citing her pressure and toughness. He worries about O'Neill's grappling defense if she ends up on her back, but thinks she can win a decision. He does not have her in his lineup and would not bet on the fight. He sees it as a wrestling match that could go either way.
The host leans with Casey O'Neill as a slight underdog, citing her aggression, strength, and improving skills at Extreme Couture. He believes O'Neill's forward pressure and top control will be key, as Procópio may struggle to get takedowns. He notes O'Neill's ground-and-pound and active top game, while Procópio is a black belt but less threatening off her back. He predicts a decision win but with low conviction, acknowledging respected analysts are on Procópio.
Paul picks Procópio, noting her solid grappling and game plan against Molly McCann. He is concerned about O'Neill's grappling but believes Procópio's experience and skills will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects Lara Procópio to have success on the feet in the first round, but O'Neill's grappling and size advantage will take over in the later rounds. He notes O'Neill's youth (23) and undefeated record (6-0) as factors. He predicts a takedown at the end of round one, then O'Neill dominating on top in rounds two and three, possibly close to a 10-8 in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 49 of 68 | 72% | 132 of 183 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 32 of 38 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:53 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shana Dobson | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 75 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 49 of 68 | 72% | 44 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 14 of 26 | 53% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Shana Dobson | 32 of 38 | 84% | 28 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shana Dobson | 17 of 30 | 56% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 |
Daniel Levi is skeptical of Casey O'Neill's competition level, calling her opponents 'soccer moms' and noting she was knocked out twice in amateur fights. He believes Shana Dobson, despite her poor record, has faced much better competition and has more experience. Levi thinks Dobson's confidence from her last win could carry her, and he sees O'Neill as overhyped. He picks Dobson for the upset, but admits it wouldn't surprise him if O'Neill wins.
Luana Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Croden | 0 | 22 of 74 | 29% | 56 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 93 of 110 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 9:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melissa Croden | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 33 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Melissa Croden | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:41 | |
| 3 | Melissa Croden | 0 | 5 of 26 | 19% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 46 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Croden | 22 of 74 | 29% | 9 of 53 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 13 | 18 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 12 of 24 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melissa Croden | 7 of 27 | 25% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 10 of 13 | 76% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Melissa Croden | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Melissa Croden | 5 of 26 | 19% | 2 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Santos (-130); Croden (+110)
Round 1
Making a stop off in the women’s bantamweight division, attention shifts to an interesting stylistic clash pitting a striker against a lady who likes to submit opponents by any means necessary. Santos (9-2, 4-1 UFC) at 25 years of age will clock in significantly younger than 34-year-old Canuck Croden (7-2, 1-0 UFC), and perhaps because of this, the odds are slightly in the Brazilian’s favor. Taking charge of this 135-pound affair will be referee Kerry Hatley, who stands back to let the two bump fists.
The ladies stay at kickboxing range to start the fight, taking turns to land strikes on one another. Santos loops her left hook at her opponent several times, marking up Croden’s nose in the first minute of the match. Croden sticks her back with straight lefts and is prepared to stuff a takedown shot, doing so when Santos shoots. Santos bull-rushes her and tackles her to the ground with a partial head-and-arm throw, and she lands in scarf hold position with her left arm wrapped around the Canadian’s neck. With her free right hand, Santos smacks Croden in the forehead repeatedly. Croden tries to muscle her way out of the position, and Hatley warns Santos for grabbing the glove to keep her foe grounded.
Slowly and incredibly smoothly, Croden slips her neck out of danger, sliding around to Santos’ back. Santos walks off the fence to get back to her feet, and she gets out of the tie-up and walks into a body kick. The Brazilian books it towards her adversary, latching onto a clinch with hopes of chaining it into a body lock. Santos stays pressed onto Croden, nullifying her and peppering her with the occasional elbow. Croden turns her about and knees her back much harder, spamming them to the midsection until she considers her own single-leg effort at the 10-second clapper. She does not get it as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
They clap hands to start off the second stanza, and Croden pops forward to get off a quick calf kick. Croden jabs and sways to avoid a counter, but Santos steps forward and tags her with a right hand. When Santos is about to spin for something, Croden pushes out a front kick that disrupts it entirely. Santos settles herself and dodges a high kick, but there is something that Croden likes about that particular strike because she fires it off a few more times to bang into Santos’ raised guard. Santos is sick of dealing with those kicks, so she walks her down and bullies her into a clinch. Croden frames off with elbows to the forehead, and she thwarts the first takedown effort from the Brazilian in the process. Santos manages to hurl Croden arse-over-tea-kettle to plant the Canadian flat on her back, and she climbs into top position.
Croden locks down her foe by hooking her arm around Santos’ preventing her from advancing or getting off any noteworthy offense. Santos methodically climbs through into half guard, but the butterfly hooks from Croden bring her back into the guard. Santos prefers to smother rather than strike, while Croden is looking for any small opportunity to do something, anything, from her back. Croden’s elbows may be the most effective strikes since the fight went horizontal, and Santos presses tightly chest-to-chest until Croden looks for a body triangle and push off to stand. Santos drops back and snatches up a heel hook, but she does not have her legs wrapped above the knee, so there is no tight submission in play. The grueling round ends in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 3
One final high-five from the bantamweights kicks off the last round, with Croden slowly advancing towards her opponent without getting reckless. Croden flashes her jab and pitches a low kick that cannot get grabbed, and suddenly switches stances to let fly a lead-leg high kick. Santos parries it and clinches, and her first effort for an outside trip fails. Croden muscles her way off the fence, and she walks the Brazilian down and lays into her with a line of punches and a few low kicks. The first counter trip from Santos comes up short, but her second, another scarf hold-slash-head-and-arm throw puts Croden feebly on her back. Santos clings to the scarf hold position, ignoring Croden’s legs bucking behind her while she imposes her weight to crush on Croden’s face and neck.
Santos paws a few meaningless punches off the forehead that are more like tapping her on the head than actually intent on causing damage, and Croden’s bucks and kicks with all her might. Santos continues leaning on Croden’s face, doing practically zero damage but racking up control time. It is a miserable round to watch, and likely even worse for the hapless Croden. Before time runs out, Santos sits up and lifts an arm to scream to the crowd about her impending victory. When the 15-minute contest does mercifully conclude, Santos shouts and celebrates as if she just won the Super Bowl.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Melissa Croden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Cody leans Santos, citing her youth and improvements. He thinks her takedown defense and striking are better, but acknowledges Croden's strength. He is not confident and calls it a pass, but picks Santos for the show.
Connor agrees with Santos, citing her youth (25) and potential. He notes that Croden looked robotic but dedicated in her last win, but Santos has more dynamic entries and takedowns. He believes Santos can surprise Croden early.
Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.
Zane picks Santos, noting her dynamic entries and takedowns. He contrasts her quick start against Lisboa with Croden's slow start in the same matchup. He believes Santos can take over early before Croden warms up. He also notes that Croden is 34 and unlikely to improve significantly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 0 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 50 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 7:57 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 6 of 34 | 17% | 7 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Luana Santos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 33 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 0 | 1 of 15 | 6% | 1 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 15 of 19 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 6 of 34 | 17% | 3 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 5 of 19 | 26% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Santos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tainara Lisboa | 1 of 15 | 6% | 0 of 10 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-130), Lisboa (+110)
Round 1
The final match among women comes at the 135-pound division, as Santos (8-2, 3-1 UFC) moves up in weight to challenge “Thai Panther” Lisboa (7-2, 2-0 UFC). The former saw her solid win streak come to a halt last August because of Casey O’Neill, but she can play spoiler to Lisboa and her own five-fight victorious stretch. Referee Herb Dean will be on call for this bantamweight battle, and the countrywomen touch ‘em up before getting down to business. Lisboa measures with her jab right off the bat, pressuring her opponent and throwing a kick at the same time Santos does. They jab at one another; Lisboa catches a kick to counter over the top. Santos sneaks in a left hand, swaying and moving as Lisboa tries to counter. Santos sticks out a front kick too long, but this is intentional as it distracts Lisboa enough and makes her try to throw back. She uses this to set up a takedown, where she bowls Lisboa over and climbs into side control. Santos uses a scarf hold to look to pass to mount, and instead gladly assumes north-south position. Lisboa tries to crawl out the back by throwing her legs up and around the back, but Santos calmly works out of it and puts herself flat in half guard. Lisboa pushes off the cage to try to get to a better position, and Santos is simultaneously looking to step into mount. This results in a stalemate, with little offense coming as Santos would rather take a dominant position. She rolls Lisboa over to try to take her back, but Lisboa calmly works to her knees. When Lisboa reaches her feet, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
While they do touch gloves, Lisboa is rushing forward to get going and try to make up lost ground. She backs Santos off with her jab, and she fakes a knee and scores a body kick with her other leg. Santos times a one-two down the pipe, and she scoots away. When Lisboa sets her feet down to engage, Santos counters her over the top. As Lisboa commits to strikes, a half-hearted front kick from her leaves her wide open to the takedown. Santos gladly accepts this and puts Lisboa on her back, where she is immediately in high side control as she wraps her arms around her foe’s head with a scarf hold. Lisboa tries again to wrap her legs up and around to get the back, but she does not have the same flexibility and energy as she did the last round to get anywhere. Santos holds her down in the scarf hold position, not using it for submission purposes but instead grinding it and just making Lisboa’s life generally miserable. All of Lisboa’s flailing leg movements do nothing to improve her position, as Santos is so high up on her body flattening her out. Every so often, Santos thumps her foe with short right hands, but no blow has any significant impact. Santos considers isolating Lisboa’s right arm, but this allows Lisboa to turn her body. As Lisboa keeps turning, she inadvertently gives up her back, and Santos wraps her legs around the waist and has both hooks in. Santos climbs to maintain partial back control that she uses to slip into full mount, and she drops down a punch or two before suffocating Lisboa further. Santos uses heavy chest pressure to keep Lisboa pinned, but she is not willing to take the risk of posturing up far.
With seconds left on the clock, Santos does not ride it out and instead latches on to a keylock and/or Americana. Lisboa clings to her left arm, which is starting to torque badly as one can imagine tendons and ligaments screaming out from the unusual tension. Santos cranks with all she has, and Lisboa taps out of the sight of Dean and then speaks out.
Dean confirms with her that it was a surrender and separates the two, with Santos notching the buzzer-beating submission that has become a rarity inside the Octagon and even more infrequent among women—remarkably, the first for a female UFC fighter.
The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Tainara Lisboa R2 4:59 via Submission (Keylock)
Angelo picks Tainara Lisboa, following the public trend as the line moved from Santos being favorite to underdog. He sees it as a 50/50 fight where Lisboa is the better striker and Santos the better grappler. He notes that Santos relies heavily on judo throws and if Lisboa can stay off the cage, she can land the more meaningful strikes. He also suggests parlaying the over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another women's fight.
Big Brady leans with Tainara Lisboa as a dog, noting she is the better striker with solid grappling. He is concerned about Lisboa's injury layoff but thinks if she is healthy, it's a close fight. He picks Lisboa by decision with little confidence.
The host agrees with the line moving towards Santos but with not a lot of confidence. He thinks her BJJ black belt and judo background will allow her to get positions on the ground to avoid Lisboa's Muay Thai striking advantage. However, he notes Santos has been flaky in the striking realm and may have trouble if she can't close the gap. He gives her the benefit of the doubt to grind out a decision win.
The Guru picks Luana Santos but admits he doesn't know why, calling it a guess. He notes Santos is young (25) and lost to Casey O'Neill, while Lisboa barely edged a decision. He predicts a 29-28 decision, possibly with a late submission. He rambles about a dog controversy and seems uncertain.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 83 of 193 | 43% | 113 of 227 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 41 of 97 | 42% | 46 of 102 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 28 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 56 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Luana Santos | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 83 of 193 | 43% | 60 of 163 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 11 | 69 of 177 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 41 of 97 | 42% | 26 of 75 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 94 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 25 of 62 | 40% | 19 of 51 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Santos | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 34 of 77 | 44% | 26 of 68 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Luana Santos | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)
Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.
Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.
The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.
Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Mariya Agapova | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Mariya Agapova | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mariya Agapova | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mariya Agapova | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-395), Agapova (+280)
Round 1
Momentum is the name of the game for this upcoming flyweight tilt, as Santos (7-1, 2-0 UFC) has some behind her as the winner of four straight. Her adversary Agapova (10-4, 2-3 UFC) has struggled as of late, dropping two in a row by submission while not competing since September 2022. This classic matchup of Brazil vs. Kazakhstan will receive oversight from referee Joe Coca, and a clap of hands commences it. Agapova looks for strikes well out of range, and Santos reaches her with a body kick. Agapova stays back, leaping forward with a right hand and missing again. Santos closes in and connects with a pair of strikes, and Agapova dances away. Agapova jabs feet away from the target, and Santos strides forward brimming with confidence and decks Agapova with a right hand. Agapova climbs back to her feet, and Santos slings her right back down to the mat with emphasis. The Brazilian commits to an arm-triangle choke as she gets to half guard, and lets it go so she can facilitate a guard pass to the side. Agapova tries to use her legs to trap Santos in something and pull her back, but when this fails, Santos steps over into full mount and goes after an arm-triangle immediately. Santos gets the grip tight, and Agapova signals a thumbs-up and turns to the side to protect herself, all while coughing out her mouthpiece to breathe better. Santos resets and presses down, bailing on it to land a few body shots and then re-fastening the submission. Agapova keeps her mouthpiece barely in her teeth and turns around to get to her knees.
Santos follows her every step of the way and locks up the rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. Agapova nearly lets her gumshield fall out of her mouth in desperation while fighting the hands, but there is nothing more she can do at this point. Agapova frantically taps
and completely spits her mouthpiece out as she feels consciousness leaving her body, and Coca rushes between them to conclude the fight. Santos jumps away and starts dancing, and the crowd eats it up.
The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Mariya Agapova R1 3:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is extremely confident in Luana Santos due to a clear stylistic advantage: Santos has fantastic takedowns while Agapova has poor takedown defense. He expects Santos to grapple heavily and control the fight, similar to her performance against Stephanie Egger. He advises getting bets in early as Santos will likely be a heavy favorite by fight night.
Cody picks Santos, citing her superior grappling and youth. He notes Agapova's personal issues, inactivity, and poor cardio. He expects Santos to take Agapova down and submit her, possibly in the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos to win via ground control. He questions Agapova's mental state and ground game, noting that she gives up bad positions on the mat. He thinks Santos will take the fight to the ground and finish. He acknowledges Agapova's danger on the feet but expects Santos to avoid that.
Santos is too chalky but still likely wins. The fight is expected to go over 1.5 rounds and hit the scorecards. Santos will control the matchup, land a few takedowns, but Agapova will show enough resistance to reach a decision. The best attack is Santos by decision.
Paul picks Santos, citing her grappling advantage and Agapova's questionable preparation. He notes Agapova's long layoff and altitude, and believes Santos will submit her. He suggests betting Santos by submission at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 0 | 53 of 104 | 50% | 97 of 161 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:44 |
| Stephanie Egger | 0 | 44 of 115 | 38% | 112 of 193 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 42 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Stephanie Egger | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Luana Santos | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Stephanie Egger | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Luana Santos | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Stephanie Egger | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 39 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 53 of 104 | 50% | 20 of 61 | 22 of 29 | 11 of 14 | 50 of 95 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephanie Egger | 44 of 115 | 38% | 31 of 97 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 29 of 96 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 20 of 45 | 44% | 6 of 25 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephanie Egger | 13 of 39 | 33% | 5 of 28 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 29 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Santos | 28 of 45 | 62% | 11 of 24 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephanie Egger | 20 of 49 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Santos | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephanie Egger | 11 of 27 | 40% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-185), Egger (+154)
Round 1
The final women’s bout on the card comes at a catchweight of 139 pounds, as former flyweight Santos (6-1, 1-0 UFC) tipped the scales three pounds heavy for her bantamweight bout against Egger (8-4, 3-3 UFC). The Swiss woman will come out with a heavier bag of cash than expected, as Santos has surrendered 20% of her fight purse as a result. The cage commander for this clash will be referee Herb Dean. There is an apologetic touch of gloves offered by the heavy woman to get things started, and it is accepted. Santos leads off with rangy, awkward strikes from strange angles. Egger keeps her guard high and parries most of the strikes that come her way, as Santos is overextending and winging strikes from various directions. Santos crowds her way in, throwing a clubbing right hand to get Egger’s attention, and she backs her off with a front kick. Egger shakes it off and plods forward, sticking out a jab and a right hand. Egger reaches out, dings the Brazilian on the cheek, and accidentally hooks her finger into Santos’ top. Dean allows them to reset so there is no wardrobe malfunction, and they return to their tit-for-tat striking exchanges. Egger pushes in and drives a knee to the chest, and Santos stops a throw attempt and turns Egger around. The two trade knees on the inside, and trip attempts fail from both sides. Egger gets a bit of space away from the cage as they continue to knee one another in the belly, and Santos keeps her hands on the Swiss woman to otherwise shut her down. Egger connects with a heel kick to the thigh and knees up the middle hard enough to stun Santos for a second, and she times a knee on the chin when Santos ducks down. The uneventful round ends with the two tied up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
The two clap hands to get the second round started, and Egger paws out a jab shortly thereafter. Santos responds with three leg kicks, and Egger swings so hard that she falls on her hands. Santos cannot capitalize on this mistake, instead backing off to let the Swiss fighter stand back up. Egger slowly plods forward before swinging an overhand right at her foe, and this leads to a clinch to pick up where they left off, only with Egger the one pressing. Santos spins away, but she takes a knee on the break. Santos sticks out a one-two, and a low kick comes after it. Egger catches a front kick and lines up a right hand, and Santos shakes her head and continues throwing. Egger wings reckless punches, and Santos tries and fails to time a trip. The Brazilian settles for pushing Egger against the fence, until she manages to toss Egger to the canvas. Egger stands back up, fighting off hooks that Santos attempts to slide in, but Santos has her gripped from behind. Santos looks to drag Egger down from behind, until she turns to the side and gloms her full body weight on Egger. Egger attempts a Thai plum clinch, but Santos fights off the hands before Egger can knee her on the chin. Santos changes levels, but Egger fights this off and separates. Santos throws several punches and lands one, and Egger awkwardly throws back. Santos gets in two more left hands, and Egger cannot find her way in as Santos pecks at her and jabs her. Egger ignores the blows and chains three strong punches together that get Santos’ attention, leading Santos to force a clinch. Egger hacks with a downward elbow to try for any offense while pinned against the wire, and the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to start the round, and Egger pushes on the accelerator and bullies Santos back. Santos reaches with long jabs, and Egger grabs hold of her to knee her twice. The Brazilian takes advantage of this position by hip tossing Egger to the mat, dropping Egger right on her head. Santos looks for a scarf hold from there, but Egger deftly fights it off and forces her way back to the feet. As soon as Egger pushes Santos to the fence, Dean calls them to work. Santos muscles Egger around to press her back against the wall, and she peppers with light knees and foot stomps until Dean asks them for more activity. Santos continues to impose her weight until Dean steps in, and Santos takes a very deep breath. Egger thanks Dean for this by rushing after Santos, and she blasts Santos in the face with a long combination. When Santos walks away, Egger stands still, until the Swiss woman wades back into combat. Santos times this with a level change, and although she cannot get the fight to the mat, she squeezes the aggressive Egger against the cage. Santos knees the thigh and stomps Egger’s foot, and Dean continues to call for more work. With Santos doing nothing, Dean splits them up at the 45-second mark. Egger pushes forward until Santos attempts a takedown. Egger turns the corner and drags Santos to her knees, landing left hands as time ticks off the clock. A few pitter-patter strikes from Egger conclude the lackluster match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-10 (29-29)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)
The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Stephanie Egger via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos is a much better striker with speed and cardio. He acknowledges Egger's size and grappling advantage but thinks Santos can survive early takedowns and win on the feet. Cody points out that Egger's striking is poor and she gasses. He believes Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Egger, or even finish her late.
Paul picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos has a significant striking advantage and Egger's only path is takedowns. Paul points out that Egger doesn't do much with top control and judges don't reward it. He thinks Santos can get back to her feet and outland Egger. Paul is avoiding the 'CF dot model' and going with Santos.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 63 of 105 | 60% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 63 of 105 | 60% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 24 of 75 | 32% | 15 of 61 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 63 of 105 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 88 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 24 of 75 | 32% | 15 of 61 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 63 of 105 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 88 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-155), Miller (+130)
Round 1
Fight fans have now passed the midpoint of what will be the longest stretch of consecutive UFC weekends, and there are only seven to go including UFC on ESPN 51. This will be the last event in the Apex until its streak-ending Sept. 23 show, and it is certainly a fight card. As mentioned in a previous article, 15 of the 26 fighters tonight are coming in having lost their last bouts, and eight of those have dropped two in a row or more. It all starts with grappler-on-grappler action in the women’s flyweight division, as “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 30 victor Miller (3-2, 1-1 UFC) looks to lift her promotional record above .500. She takes on promotional newcomer Santos (5-1, 0-0 UFC), who made her way to the UFC not through the Contender Series or any of the other feeder programs, but from the LFA. This opening bout draws the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and it begins without a touch of gloves as Miller charges like a bull. The two ladies immediately start swinging, and Miller snaps the head back with a few heavy blows. Miller’s aggression leads her into a clinch, where she immediately presses onto her opponent while kneeing her in the gut. Santos turns the corner and splits apart, and she resets. Miller walks her down, stutter-stepping her way in and throwing hammers. Santos sits down on a right hand to catch her on the way in, but Miller completely ignores it and keeps on storming forward. Miller puts her hands on Santos’ face, not landing with any individually damaging blow, but getting Santos’ attention. The Brazilian woman steels herself and launches a bomb of a right hand that bangs right into Miller’s temple, rocking “Killer.” Santos does not let her foe off the hook, as she slugs away and even mixes in a head kick as Miller leans her back to the wall to stay upright. Miller leans forward to try to slow things down, and Santos snatches up a guillotine choke that ends up with the two ladies landing on the mat. Santos releases her grip to allow them back to their feet, and she stays right in Miller’s grill throwing hands. Santos belts her foe in the jaw a few times, and Miller wobbles back to the wall and tries to counter but is only flailing. Santos smashes Miller in the face, and Miller reels and is in big trouble. Santos pours it on with fists flying, and she connects repeatedly and does not care about anything Miller gives back to her. Herzog is taking a close eye on the action, and Santos tries to force a stoppage by laying into Miller with everything she has.
The punches keep coming, and Miller drops to a knee and fights her way back up. Miller may be out on her feet, and Santos continues busting her in the chops until Herzog has seen enough.
This is a statement performance for the debuting Santos, who earns her first career knockout in her biggest fight to date. Meanwhile, she also becomes the first fighter to finish the TUF victor as a professional.
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The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Juliana Miller R1 3:41 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santos confidently, citing her judo background and slick grappling versus Miller's lack of skill and poor takedown defense. He notes Miller was a terrible -450 favorite who couldn't defend takedowns. He already placed a quarter unit at -140 and expects the line to move further.
Big Brady picks Juliana Miller to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Miller's terrible striking defense but good grappling. He thinks Santos's head-and-arm throws could be reversed by Miller, leading to back takes. He calls the line a 'massive over correction' and sees Miller as a live dog. However, he admits he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody picks Santos, citing her judo black belt and solid takedown entries. He criticizes Miller's wrestling and striking, noting she was taken down four times by Veronica Hardy. He thinks Santos can get the fight to the mat and control it. He also notes Santos' only losses are to a high-level grappler (Jenna Bishop). He believes Santos would have won The Ultimate Fighter season if she were on it.
James leans toward Miller as a potential underdog, noting Santos didn't look great in her last fight and Miller is gritty. However, he hasn't done full tape and is not confident. He sees possible value on Miller but needs to study more.
Miller is a BJJ black belt who does her best work on the ground, but her striking is lacking. Santos is a newcomer with a BJJ and Judo black belt, but she is not the type of striker that Hardy was, who used lateral movement to avoid takedowns. Miller should be able to drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. The recency bias has made Miller a plus 140 dog after being a minus 400 favorite in her last fight, which is a value spot.
Paul picks Santos, agreeing that Miller is overrated. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and striking, and that Santos is the better striker and grappler. He thinks Santos' judo will neutralize Miller's wrestling and that Santos can win by decision or submission. He also mentions that the line opened with the wrong fighter favored.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Santos based on Juliana Miller's poor performance in her last fight, where she showed no skill, bad stand-up, and poor submission attempts. He notes that women's MMA is unpredictable but trusts Santos's age (23) and regional wins. He emphasizes that after watching Miller's last fight, he cannot logically pick her again.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.
Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.
The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.
Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.
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