vs
-350 +320
UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 38
Height 6' 0"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Carlos Prates
3.77 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
4.53 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.21 TD Avg
100.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Li Jingliang
4.46 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.95 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.19 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Prates
Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +100
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
FanDuel +280
Li Jingliang
Moneyline
Caesars +320
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetWay +600
Carlos Prates - Fight History
TKO R3 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 41 of 76 53% 53 of 90 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:13
Carlos Prates 3 104 of 193 53% 104 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 25 of 39 64% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 1 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Carlos Prates 2 46 of 69 66% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 41 of 76 53% 25 of 52 8 of 15 8 of 9 41 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 104 of 193 53% 79 of 164 11 of 14 14 of 15 89 of 171 1 of 1 14 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 15 of 30 50% 5 of 18 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 25 of 39 64% 19 of 28 3 of 7 3 of 4 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 36 of 79 45% 27 of 69 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 78 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 46 of 69 66% 39 of 61 3 of 4 4 of 4 32 of 48 1 of 1 13 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Round 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight) Confident Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight) Confident Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight) Confident Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena based on a technical advantage. He describes Della Maddalena as always technically sharp, locked into the tactical back-and-forth, with a boxer-like sophistication that Prates lacks. He notes Prates hits hard and is tough, but his game has empty space and he makes mistakes. Connor says Della Maddalena can pressure and exploit Prates' bad footwork habits.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm inclined to agree. I mean, I kind of pick here just for a, the rarest good reason to pick a fight... a technical advantage on the part of Jack Della Maddalena."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert
Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert
May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to what Matalena can do here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight) Confident Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight) Confident Jack Della Maddalena

Zane picks Della Maddalena based on his technical boxing sophistication and ability to pressure. He notes that Della Maddalena is a tremendous problem solver who enjoys difficult exchanges, and that Prates' game relies on opponents making big mistakes. Zane believes Della Maddalena can pressure, clinch, and wrestle his way to a win, though he acknowledges Prates' power and toughness.

Odds mentioned: Della Maddalena opened at +150, dropped to -105, now +105; Prates opened at -175, now -125. Zane says the odds are nearly dead even and that's where they should be.
"I think I'm going to pick Della Maddalena here. And I think he could, if he pressures Prates and he fights a good fight... he can hustle his way to a win."
WIN vs Leon Edwards
KO R2 1:28 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 12 of 17 70% 25 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:00
Carlos Prates 1 21 of 32 65% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:00
Carlos Prates 0 9 of 17 52% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Leon Edwards 0 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Prates 1 12 of 15 80% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 12 of 17 70% 4 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9 11 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 21 of 32 65% 8 of 16 2 of 3 11 of 13 19 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 7 of 10 70% 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 12 of 15 80% 6 of 8 1 of 1 5 of 6 11 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-198), Edwards (+164)

Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. They start in matching southpaw stances and trade low kicks. They both land more leg kicks and then Prates moves foreward with a jab. Prates defends a takedown from Edwards. Prates lands a knee on the inside. Both welterweights continue to land low kicks. Edwards shoots and shoves Prates into the fence. Prates defends and stays upright. Edwards brings a knee. Prates is talking to Edwards as they remain in the clinch. Peterson has seen enough and they separate. Back at range, Prates steps in with a knee. Edwards times a level change nicely and takes Prates down. Edwards looks to take the back and makes Prates carry him like a backpack as the Brazilian stands. Prates fights off the hands to prevent a choke. A few short shots to the side of the head for Edwards. Edwards jumps off the back and takes Prates down. Edwards threatens with a rear-naked choke late in the round but Prates survives.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Edwards

Round 2
Edwards fires off a front kick. Prates with a low kick. Edwards counters a low kick with a left hand. Prates sticks a crisp jab. A leg kick spins Edwards around. The welterweights trade lefts as Prates keeps talking to his foe. The Brazilian pumps his jab while chattering away. A nice counter lands for Edwards following a Prates knee during an exchange. Moments later, Prates lands a long left hand through Edwards’ guard, taking the Englishman clean off his feet. “Rocky” crashes to the canvas and his eyes roll back in his head. Prates dives in and adds one follow-up missile for good measure. “The Nightmare” is the first man to knock out Leon Edwards in his professional MMA career.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Leon Edwards via KO (Punches) R2 1:28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates, noting that Leon Edwards' recent losses were to wrestlers, while Prates is a dangerous striker. He believes Edwards has shown lack of heart recently and Prates' power and accuracy will be too much. He is excited for the fight and confident in Prates.

"I think Carlos is going to win here. I'm very excited for this fight. I'm going to pick Carlos Protest."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, believing he is getting Leon Edwards at the right time. He criticizes Edwards for having boring fights and not facing dangerous knockout artists, noting Edwards has never been knocked out but hasn't fought many power punchers. Brady thinks Prates has the 'death touch' and will knock out Edwards if he lets his hands go, predicting a second-round knockout. He acknowledges the risk of a slow start but expects Prates to show urgency.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Prochess to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight) Hesitant Carlos Prates

Cody also picks Prates but calls it a trap line due to recency bias. He notes that Leon has been taken down frequently but that Prates won't wrestle, which could make Leon more comfortable. However, Cody believes Prates is younger, more aggressive, and will land bigger shots. He is concerned about Leon's past performances but ultimately sides with Prates.

"I still feel like he's just at a point of his career where he's going to be a little more aggressive, a little more active, and that's all it's going to take."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates hesitantly, citing Edwards' recent decline in motivation and tendency to fade in fights. He notes that Prates is a dangerous striker who can capitalize on Edwards' lapses, especially if Edwards backs to the fence. However, he acknowledges Prates' wrestling is unproven and Edwards could out-grapple him.

Odds: Edwards opened -160, now +160; Prates opened +140, now -185. Line has flipped.
"I will take, I will pick the guy I want to see win this fight, Carlos projects, but in three rounds... I have a lot of doubts."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert
Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel believes Prates is catching Edwards at the right time, as Edwards has looked uninspired and has been rocked multiple times. He praises Prates' knockout power and variety of strikes, and notes that Edwards' measured pace plays into Prates' style of downloading data and finding openings. He predicts a knockout win for Prates.

by KO
"I'm going to go with Carlos Bratis to come out here and knock out Leon Edwards."
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO. He highlights Prates' diverse striking arsenal, especially his devastating knee strikes, and believes Edwards will struggle to stay safe on the feet. He notes Edwards has been hurt by lesser strikers and doubts his ability to grapple effectively against Prates. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in round two or three, continuing his streak of walk-off KOs in the UFC.

by KO
"Carlos Prates, in my opinion, is going to go out there and get a KO over Leon Edwards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Carlos Prates

Prates stops Edwards' takedowns and boxes him up on the feet, landing better shots to win on the scorecards. However, the odds are a little wide for my liking, indicating some hesitation.

odds are a little wide for my liking
"I do like some prochess here as I think that he can stop the takedowns that Edwards will inevitably be looking for here and then box him up on the feet landing better shots and then win this fight on the scorecards. Although I will say that the odds are …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Paul picks Prates, citing that Leon Edwards is on the decline and has shown low volume and a tendency to quit. He notes that Prates is on the rise and has power, and that Leon's wrestling won't be a factor since Prates doesn't rely on takedowns. Paul thinks Prates will land bigger shots and either finish or win a decision.

"Aprates is a guy who's, you know, obviously exposed by Gary to a degree, but is, you know, still kind of on the rise, whereas I think we've seen the best of uh of Leon Edwards, too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to KO Leon Edwards in round one or two. He cites Edwards' suspect chin, having been wobbled by Nate Diaz and Belal Muhammad, and believes Prates' power and timing will be too much. He notes that Edwards' movement and range management may not be enough to avoid Prates' left hand. The Guru expects a dramatic finish.

KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Carlos Pratess, man. I think Protes is going to chin him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight) Hesitant Carlos Prates

Zane also picks Prates, influenced by Edwards' apparent loss of enjoyment and tendency to become passive. He notes that Prates' pressure and power could catch Edwards, but Edwards' wrestling is a threat. He mentions the closed stance matchup favors Prates' comfort.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm making the same pick. It's definitely informed by Leon, seeming like he will continue to stubbornly continue to do this, but doesn't really enjoy it anymore."
WIN vs Geoff Neal
KO R1 4:59 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.

"Carlos should win here. I think he's the better striker. There should be mostly striking going on here."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.

Prates by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Pches to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm going to pick Prates just cause I'm not going to fall off the bandwagon. And I think this is a winnable fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight) Confident Geoff Neal

The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.

"I think the speed and explosivity of Neil will allow him to land big shots on Proches throughout the 15 minutes here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.

Late first round or second round finish; knees up the middle
"I think we're going to see this get a little bit scrappy. And I actually think we're going to see this end up being a Carlos Pres late first round or second round finish over Jeff Neil."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight) Lean Geoff Neal

Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm tempted to take Geoff Neal. I think there's a bad version of this fight where Jeff Neil still makes it tough and might just take the rounds."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 126 of 242 52% 141 of 259 4 of 19 21% 0 0 3:09
Carlos Prates 0 63 of 129 48% 64 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Carlos Prates 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 34 of 68 50% 36 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Prates 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 26 of 52 50% 33 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:25
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Ian Machado Garry 0 23 of 42 54% 26 of 45 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:58
Carlos Prates 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ian Machado Garry 0 28 of 41 68% 31 of 45 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 38 57% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 126 of 242 52% 86 of 185 17 of 28 23 of 29 120 of 231 2 of 6 4 of 5
Carlos Prates 63 of 129 48% 38 of 97 16 of 21 9 of 11 50 of 114 1 of 2 12 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 15 of 39 38% 8 of 25 3 of 7 4 of 7 11 of 34 0 of 0 4 of 5
Carlos Prates 7 of 16 43% 2 of 8 2 of 3 3 of 5 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 5 of 8 7 of 9 34 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 12 of 22 54% 4 of 14 3 of 3 5 of 5 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 26 of 52 50% 19 of 42 4 of 7 3 of 3 26 of 50 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 6 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Ian Machado Garry 23 of 42 54% 15 of 34 3 of 3 5 of 5 23 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 12 of 33 36% 9 of 26 2 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Ian Machado Garry 28 of 41 68% 22 of 33 2 of 3 4 of 5 26 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 38 57% 17 of 33 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 1 12 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-135), Prates (+114)

Round 1
All eyes are on the main event here, possibly a one-sided title eliminator depending on how the rest of the division shakes out. Garry (15-1, 8-1 UFC) may need to get another one or two before vying for gold, but if Prates (21-6, 4-0 UFC) gets another knockout, the Brazilian might jump the line. All he will have to do is punch out a heavy-handed Irishman who has never before been finished as a pro. With nothing left but the particulars, referee Dan Miragliotta brings them together to issue the final instructions. They are intense but still touch gloves. It’s on with the show. In alternating stances with Prates in southpaw while Garry is on orthodox, the two test one another’s range with hand-fighting early. This proceeds for about 30 seconds, when Prates punctuates the inactivity with a low kick. Garry slowly responds with a high kick that is easily blocked, and Prates chips at the calf a second time. Prates whiffs on another low kick, and Garry nearly makes him pay with a head kick that is blocked in the nick of time. Prates grabs his foe’s glove and slings a left hand around it, brushing past his intended target. Prates lifts his lead leg up anticipatorily to defend against a leg kick, and he leans back to let a right hand soar past him. Garry floats up a high kick that is blocked, and he shoots in for takedown that Prates stuffs aggressively. Garry stands up and grins, and he lets fly a left hand and a kick. He then attacks the lead leg with another kick, while Prates is stuck in the proverbial mud. Prates hammers a kick to the ribs, intercepting two punches upstairs from the Irishman. Garry keeps firing off his head kick at the end of a combination, and he shoots for a takedown that Prates easily tosses aside. The Brazilian marches forward, looping a left hand around the guard but out of reach. Garry lunges forward with three punches that bounce off the raised guard, and he lets Prates clinch him so he can push off and kick up high. Prates blocks it, and Garry kicks him in the side with the same limb. Garry fakes a jump knee, and Prates pushes him away. The two crash together, and Prates falls to his back. Garry unloads with a handful of powerful standing-to-ground punches, and he avoids an upkick as the round ends. The Irishman helps his foe get back to his feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Garry is quick to wrap a left hand up and over the guard to land. He chambers and fires a body kick to follow, and is well out of range when Prates looks to kick him back. Garry probes out with his jab, staying cognizant of his range and footing while not staying in the same spot as when he threw. Garry punches his way into a takedown effort, and the Brazilian squirrels out of it. When he stands back up, Garry high-fives him. “The Future” then gets back to business, kicking the front leg and jabbing a couple times. As Prates kicks low, Garry goes high. Prates surprises his opponent with a step-in elbow, and Garry retaliates with a push kick that bangs into the cup. Prates waves him and Miragliotta off, as he would prefer to keep doing what he’s doing. Garry obliges him by continuing to jab and peck at his foe, all the while looking to find the head kick he has been seeking for a round and a half. Prates uses head movement to avoid a punch and comes back firing, with two punches leading into a clinch. Prates disengages, and his guard is high enough to defend the inevitable head kick. Garry slaps a kick on the inside of his foe’s lead leg, and he works the body after with his shin. Garry tries to check a kick, and he meets Prates with an elbow when Prates crashes towards him. Prates leans back, and when nothing more flies at him, he reaches Garry with a single left hand. Garry bounces and strafes, allowing Prates to throw so he can shoot. Prates stifles it, and Garry again congratulates him for not getting grounded. Prates gets off one single elbow before they tie up again, and Garry splits off and peppers the lead leg with a kick and launches a head kick. After those two kicks, he scores a few punches, differing his normal pattern of the head kick ending the combo. Garry’s spinning wheel kick is a foot away from his intended target, and he drops down and connects with a spin kick to the lead leg by taking a page out of the Andy Hug playbook. The round ends with the two high-fiving after those spinning strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry

Round 3
Highs are fived to start off the third round, and Prates has listened to his corner as he strikes first with a hard body kick. It is one-and-done, however, as Garry backs him away only using a jab and a leg kick. He goes high, and Prates answers with his own leg up top. Garry leaps forward, pulling back before unleashing the knee so he can let Prates’ kick bang into his blocking arms. Garry comes up short with a one-two, but he does push Prates back a step when his head kick slams into the raised guard. Garry does not slow when attacking that kick, and he shoots for a takedown that Prates shucks off. Garry breaks a lull in the action by lashing out at the Brazilian, connecting with heavy punches that knock Prates’ head around. Garry backs off and rushes in to put more punches together, and as soon as Prates fights back, Garry hits a clean double and puts him on his back. Prates calmly works his way to the wall, where he gets to a knee and is upright without taking much in the way of damage. Garry gets in a single knee on the inside when Prates is returning upright, and they split apart. Prates jabs and looks for a left hand, but Garry is more composed and accurate, also more active when it comes to head movement and sleek footwork. Prates cannot get anything going, and he swings too hard with a left hand and ends up on his back when Garry takes him down easily. Prates again crawls to the fencing and fights his way back up, and Garry thinks about lifting him up and slamming him down but does not waste the energy as the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry

Round 4
Fists are bumped as the two reach the championship rounds, and Garry is quick to lead the dance with a pair of punches and a body kick. He changes levels for a takedown, and Prates sees it coming and practically ignores it. Walking Garry down, he scores a loud body kick, but Garry gets in his face with a few punches and his own kick. A naked Garry shot fails, and he gives it up to Prates again for stopping it. Garry hand-fights and uses his rear leg to go up high, and when Prates blocks it, he grapples the Brazilian. When Prates hits the mat, he immediately scrambles to a knee. Garry imposes his weight so thoroughly on his opponent, he actively stands on Prates’ calf until Prates stands back up. Garry hits an easy mat return, and Prates returns upright and tosses Garry aside. Garry dances away to reset, and he slings a head kick that is blocked. A Garry front kick bounces into the cup, and Prates again signals he is ok. He runs forward, landing a single right hand, but there is nothing after it. Garry is the one stringing punches and kicks together, while Prates is looking for one—and they are not of the knockout variety, largely. Prates lands a left hand upstairs, and then goes to the body. His head kick zips past Garry’s face, who sways back to avoid it. Prates left hand bloodies Garry’s nose, and he smells the blood and starts loading up on power punches. Prates cracks his foe with a left hand, whose knees wobble and he grins mischievously. Garry gets a takedown for a second to disrupt the advancing Prates, and when they stand up, the horn sounds a few seconds earlier than the five-minute mark.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prates
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prates
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prates

Round 5
Prates amps the crowd up as they reach the last round, hugging it out before they engage for five more violent minutes. Garry hand-fights immediately to not allow Prates to find his jab, and he kicks the side. Prates kicks him in the same spot, and he gives chase to the Irishman who is circling to the left and right intermittently. Prates just misses with a left hand, launching a knee up high that smashes into Garry’s face. Garry shoots instinctively for a takedown, and Prates shucks it aside. Garry fires off a big right hand, bouncing off the guard. Prates kicks his foe in the ribs, and Garry catches the leg while pursuing a single. The crowd erupts in anger for this strategy, and showers Prates with love when Prates breaks free. Prates winds up with a left hand, and he works his way forward until he can toss up a head kick. Garry’s takedown in response is stopped in its tracks, and he flails his fists when Prates bears down on him. Garry snipes his foe with a check left hook, and the crowd does not love Garry and informs of this with a foul-mouthed chant of “F--- Ian Garry.” Garry takes their cheers and makes them even angrier by pursuing a takedown, dipping beneath a Prates haymaker. Garry goes after the single, and Prates retains his balance but is forced to deal with a salvo of punches. After resetting, Prates heaves and weaves his way in, whiffing with a head kick and chasing after Garry. When Garry shoots, Prates decides he will instead spin him around and wind up on top, where he drops down heavy punches. The hammerfists from Prates make Garry panic, who crawls to the wall to survive. Prates pulls his leg out when Garry dives after a takedown, and he bowls Garry over again and drops down a hard standing-to-ground punch that makes Garry turn over. Garry leans on the fencing, moving his head to not take shots, and Prates lets him up so he can slug it out. Prates walks after his foe with his hands down, way too tired to throw anything. With one final moment to do something, Prates fails miserably, and he will more than likely lose a decision. It may be a moral victory for the Brazilian that he made it five rounds while likely ending the fight as the fresher man—other than the final few seconds—but it firmly snaps his knockout streak and breaks the cherrypicked, ultimately incorrect stat claimed time and again that fighters from the Fighting Nerds are undefeated in the UFC. The triumphant Garry declares that he plans on attending UFC 315 to officially serve as the backup for the championship bout between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. When that event happens, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prates (48-47 Garry)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prates (48-47 Garry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prates (48-47 Garry)

The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Carlos Prates via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates is the better striker, which is key against a primarily striking opponent like Ian Garry. He notes that Garry may try to wrestle, but Prates has better takedown defense than MVP and won't be helpless on the ground. He acknowledges the risk but is confident in Prates' power and range control.

Not betting on this fight; pick only
"I am going to pick Carlos Protesus here. I don't know if I'm going to bet on it."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, citing the Fighting Nerds' undefeated record and Prates' power and accuracy. He criticizes Ian Garry's striking defense, noting he backs up with his chin up. He expects Prates to land a big shot and knock out Garry, predicting a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I think it's a Carlos Proess I'll say second round knockout for for Carlos Proess here in what should be a what should be a phenomenal main event."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight) Confident Ian Machado Garry

Connor picks Garry because he believes Garry can exploit Prates' weaknesses: Prates has a wide stance, struggles moving backwards, and defaults to clinching when pressured. Garry can use his reach to pressure, wrestle with authority, and neutralize Prates' game. Connor thinks Garry's ability to make fights ugly and suffocating will lead to a grinding win, even if uninspired.

"I think he can go after Proches and kick him because Proches loves that really wide stance and keep him moving backwards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight) Lean Ian Machado Garry

The host leans Garry slightly, citing his better discipline and technical game. He notes Prates is dangerous and has finished all UFC fights, but Garry is the most technically sound opponent he's faced. Garry's five-round experience and ability to mix striking with grappling should lead to a decision win.

"I'm going to have to lean Gary ever so slightly here. I think he has the better discipline and better technical game overall."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO in round two. He believes Prates has better finishing potential and composure, while Garry is nervous early and has a tendency to throw low kicks in elbow distance, leaving him open. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and that Prates has good balance and takedown defense. He expects Prates to hurt Garry in round one and finish him in round two.

TKO round 2
"I'm going to go for Carlos Prates round two TKO over Ian Garry. I think he's going to chin him. I think Ian Garry will do well. protest will hurt him in round one and it will start changing the the look of the fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

Zane picks Prates despite acknowledging Garry's advantages, because he expects Garry to be passive and fight on the back foot, which gives Prates room to work. Zane notes Prates has a great eye for defensive openings and can pick up on Garry's timing issues. He also mentions Prates' finishing ability and the fact that Garry has been less aggressive recently, but admits Prates has never fought five rounds and could gas.

"I'm going to take Proches just to will it into existence."
CANCEL vs Geoff Neal
WIN vs Neil Magny
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert
Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert
Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert
Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to slow Magny down and from there opening up with this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert
Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
WIN vs Li Jingliang
KO (punches) R2 4:02 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 41 of 111 36% 41 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 3 55 of 84 65% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 1 25 of 36 69% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Carlos Prates 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 2 30 of 48 62% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 41 of 111 36% 12 of 64 4 of 10 25 of 37 41 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 55 of 84 65% 44 of 70 1 of 3 10 of 11 55 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 26 of 66 39% 7 of 38 4 of 9 15 of 19 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 1 of 2 6 of 7 25 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Prates 15 of 45 33% 5 of 26 0 of 1 10 of 18 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 30 of 48 62% 26 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 30 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.

"Carlos prattes is going to be the pick and uh this is just a really tough welcome back after a two-year layoff for Jing Lang Lee."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.

decision
"I'm going to take proess to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Hesitant Li Jingliang

Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.

"I'm actually going to take Jing leang Lee but it'll be the PRP pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert 2 video updates
Latest Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.

"I'm calling him to be the first person to knock out uh the leech first time he ever gets knocked out"
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.

Knockout by body shot (prediction, no line mentioned)
"PES is the pick here download and then probably knock out right yeah I I think although Lee is notoriously not a real easy guy to knock out um but I I wouldn't be surprised listen to this prediction I'm gonna get real specific I'm gonna say knockout with the …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.

"I think pret controls range far better than Daniel Rodriguez who sometimes like gets a little sloppy and mixes it up in a drawing pattern like press is a guy who isn't going to braw he's gonna pick you apart and I think he picks apart Lee jingl really easily …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.

Prates by decision
"I'm still going to lean prz ... I'm going to go proess by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) No clear pick

Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.

"I think it's pretty clearly a pass and watch Lee get absolutely folded"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with Carlos prates over Le Jing leang which hurts but I'm just not going to trust in Le Jing leang to come back"
KO (knee to the body) R1 4:47 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 14 of 27 51% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Charles Radtke 1 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 14 of 27 51% 33 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Charles Radtke 1 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 14 of 27 51% 7 of 19 3 of 4 4 of 4 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Radtke 15 of 36 41% 5 of 19 4 of 10 6 of 7 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 14 of 27 51% 7 of 19 3 of 4 4 of 4 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Radtke 15 of 36 41% 5 of 19 4 of 10 6 of 7 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Prates vs. Charlie Radtke
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-238), Radtke (+195)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, and one of these two unheralded competitors will be forced to suffer their first UFC loss while the other will maintain either a seven- or nine-fight win streak. Victorious in his last six, Radtke (9-3, 2-0 UFC) puts that on the line against Brazilian striker Prates (18-6, 1-0 UFC), who has not lost since a One Championship appearance in 2019. Drawing the charge will be referee Blake Grice, and the intense showdown kicks off without a glove touch. Radtke switches stances several times to work his way forward, while Prates kicks at his foe’s knee to push him back. Radtke whips a low kick as Prates recoils his leg, and a Prates head kick bounces harmlessly off the guard. Radtke punches his way into a single-leg takedown entry, pushing “Carlao” against the fence and holding up a leg. With Prates bent over, Radtke bops Prates many times with short, annoying punches, and he breaks off and lands one heavy right hand. Prates nails his foe’s front calf with a kick, and after Radtke flies by with a kick, he scores his own leg kick. Radtke has another kick land with a thud, and he winds up everything into a right hook that flies by his opponent. Radtke crashes forward in pursuit of a single, and he lets it go and misses with an overhand right. Two punches from Radtke miss the mark, but a leg kick does connect. Prates bobs and weaves his way forward, and he has his head snapped back by a right hand. Prates blasts the front leg with a kick, and Radtke starts limping as swelling forms almost immediately. Prates leans back from the counter and tags “Chuck Buffalo” with a right, and he backs off as Radtke tries to let him have it. A fake takedown from Radtke is stifled when Prates pokes him in the eye, and Grice calls time and lets Radtke take about 20 seconds to blink it out. When they resume, Prates starts to stalk his man down, his hands low and allowing him to eat a right hand so he can throw punches from strange angles. Radtke sneaks in a left hand before his lead leg is kicked hard, and Prates measures him with a straight left hand and lets out a woo.
The Brazilian rips a knee to the liver as clean as can be, and Radtke hits the deck and is completely done. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and Grice waves off the fight.
The victorious “Carlao” goes over to Radtke’s corner, where he yells something at upcoming title challenger Belal Muhammad. With that crushing stoppage on the board, this is the first finish of the night and the first knockout in quite some time.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Charlie Radtke R1 4:47 via KO (Knee to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight) Lean Charles Radtke

Angelo leans Charles Radtke, but with low confidence. He notes that Radtke is a grappler who has shown good hands recently, while Prates is a dangerous striker but low volume. He thinks Radtke's forward pressure and takedowns could be key, but if he rushes in recklessly, he could get knocked out. He sees it as a close fight where Radtke's pressure might be the difference.

"I'm gonna lean Charlie here he is going to be the pick but the running in while I think he needs to do to win the fight I also think that can put him In Harm's Way"
BI
Big Brady Expert
Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight) Lean Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charles Radtke as a big underdog to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Prates is overrated and notes that Prates was losing to Trevin Giles before a comeback KO. He believes Radtke can make it a brawl and potentially knock Prates out, though he acknowledges Prates has advantages in height, reach, and youth.

knockout round 1
"give me the dog here and racky in a fight that you know somebody should absolutely get served in this one but give me raky for the win how does he get it done I'll say I'll say I'll say knockout I'll say knockout and I'll say it comes early …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight) Lean Charles Radtke

Cody picks Radtke as an underdog, noting that Prates has low volume and questionable durability, as seen in his fight against Trevin Giles. Radtke is aggressive, has power, and is a BJJ black belt with multiple win conditions. Cody believes Radtke can pressure Prates, take him down, or knock him out. He sees value in the plus money.

"I gotta go Charlie raty Underdog money dude"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel is confident in Prates, citing his Muay Thai, reach, experience, and finishing ability. He compares Prates to Anderson Silva in terms of length and southpaw stance, and expects a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Radtke is well-rounded but not special anywhere, and that Prates' seasoning and physical advantages should prevail.

knockout
"I think that this is a perfect opponent for Carlos prates to come out here and get another highlight reel knockout"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert
Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight) Confident Charles Radtke

Jacob is very confident in Charles Radtke, calling him the lock of the week. He praises Radtke's toughness, pressure, and grappling. He thinks Radtke will push Prates against the cage, take him down, and likely submit him. He notes that Prates has no plan B and relies on one-punch power, but Radtke has a good chin and will break him. Jacob also mentions that he predicted Prates' last fight correctly.

Charles Radtke wins by submission
"Chuck Buffalo is the lock of the week and there is a reason for that he is going to come in he is going to press this guy he is going to hug this guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Prates has extensive kickboxing experience and excellent takedown defense, which should allow him to stuff Radtke's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet. Radtke has power but is less technical. Prates should eventually land a knockout, though the -230 line is a bit wide given Radtke's danger.

knockout
"give me proess and proess by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight) No clear pick

Paul is tempted by Radtke at plus money but is nervous about laying the price on Prates. He notes Prates' finishing ability but also his low volume and the fact that he was losing to Giles before the knockout. Paul considers it a dogger pass but might take Radtke.

"it feels like a dogger pass would probably a pass for me I don't know if I'm gonna have the courage to pull the trigger on radkey here Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Prates because he is more effective at range on the feet, with 78 inches of reach in welterweight. He notes Radtke looked bad against Blood Diamond and though he has KO power, Prates is younger and on a good win streak including kickboxing. He predicts a second-round TKO for Prates.

Second-round TKO prediction
"I'm going to side with prattes here... second round TKO for um Carlos prattes"
Li Jingliang - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punches) R2 4:02 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 41 of 111 36% 41 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 3 55 of 84 65% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 1 25 of 36 69% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Carlos Prates 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 2 30 of 48 62% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 41 of 111 36% 12 of 64 4 of 10 25 of 37 41 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 55 of 84 65% 44 of 70 1 of 3 10 of 11 55 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 26 of 66 39% 7 of 38 4 of 9 15 of 19 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 1 of 2 6 of 7 25 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Prates 15 of 45 33% 5 of 26 0 of 1 10 of 18 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 30 of 48 62% 26 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 30 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.

"Carlos prattes is going to be the pick and uh this is just a really tough welcome back after a two-year layoff for Jing Lang Lee."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.

decision
"I'm going to take proess to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Hesitant Li Jingliang

Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.

"I'm actually going to take Jing leang Lee but it'll be the PRP pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert 2 video updates
Latest Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.

"I'm calling him to be the first person to knock out uh the leech first time he ever gets knocked out"
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.

Knockout by body shot (prediction, no line mentioned)
"PES is the pick here download and then probably knock out right yeah I I think although Lee is notoriously not a real easy guy to knock out um but I I wouldn't be surprised listen to this prediction I'm gonna get real specific I'm gonna say knockout with the …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.

"I think pret controls range far better than Daniel Rodriguez who sometimes like gets a little sloppy and mixes it up in a drawing pattern like press is a guy who isn't going to braw he's gonna pick you apart and I think he picks apart Lee jingl really easily …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.

Prates by decision
"I'm still going to lean prz ... I'm going to go proess by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) No clear pick

Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.

"I think it's pretty clearly a pass and watch Lee get absolutely folded"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with Carlos prates over Le Jing leang which hurts but I'm just not going to trust in Le Jing leang to come back"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 78 of 175 44% 78 of 175 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Li Jingliang 0 88 of 185 47% 89 of 186 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Li Jingliang 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 27 of 62 43% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 34 of 79 43% 34 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 78 of 175 44% 25 of 103 23 of 34 30 of 38 78 of 174 0 of 0 0 of 1
Li Jingliang 88 of 185 47% 54 of 140 17 of 23 17 of 22 88 of 185 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 27 of 54 50% 7 of 29 8 of 11 12 of 14 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 20 of 40 50% 10 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 6 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 24 of 59 40% 8 of 33 5 of 10 11 of 16 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 1
Li Jingliang 34 of 66 51% 19 of 45 5 of 8 10 of 13 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 27 of 62 43% 10 of 41 10 of 13 7 of 8 27 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 34 of 79 43% 25 of 68 6 of 8 3 of 3 34 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jingliang Li vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Round 1
On a little over a day’s notice, these next three fights will all feature fighters facing different opponents than they trained for. This mix-and-match round robin begins at 180 pounds, with welterweight Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) battling it out against a man that weighed in 10 pounds heavier than him. Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC) planned on fighting at 180 pounds, so on paper he should have a significant weight advantage. Keeping things on the up-and-up is referee Mark Smith, and the fighters gladly touch gloves to start things off. Rodriguez tries to reach his opponent with a lunging right jab, and Li looks for a check hook on the way in but cannot land it. Rodriguez ducks back when a low kick sweeps at him, and he charges with two punches that knock the Chinese fighter back to the wall. Li targets another body kick, and Rodriguez cracks him with a left hand. They measure one another with their alternating hands, and the pace wanes as they appear to be concerned with one another’s power. Li kicks the body, and he dodges a response of the same variety. Rodriguez peppers the jab and walks into a right hand, but he pays it no mind and resets on the outside. Li kicks with both legs to the inside and outside of the leg, and Rodriguez keeps flicking out his sharp jab. Li throws a punch that bounces off the top of the cup and follows with one to the head, and Rodriguez ignores it and takes a flush body kick. Li works the ribcage with several body, and Rodriguez responds with a head kick that lands about as cleanly as one can, but Li does not even budge. Li instead swarms him with punches, and Rodriguez retreats and attacks the calf with his shin. Li leaps forward with a pair of punches, and Rodriguez shoulder rolls both of them and finds himself evading a secondary burst of blows aimed his way. Two kicks go unanswered from Li, and they clash shins when kicking at the same time. When Li fires off a kick to the side and lazily brings his leg back, Rodriguez times the opportunity to belt him with a pair of stunning hooks. Li shakes out the cobwebs and catches a low kick. As holds one leg up, he kicks the other, sweeping Rodriguez out and chasing him to smack him in the face with a right hand. Li backs off before Rodriguez can unload on him, and he gives ground and starts moving his arms around strangely. One last kick from “The Leech” connects before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li

Round 2
Fists are bumped to begin the second stanza, and Rodriguez skips forward with a chopping calf kick. Li gives him one back, and he bull-rushes forward with punches and backpedals to start showboating. Rodriguez does not make him pay for the posturing, only scoring a few swiping right hands that do not land flush. Rodriguez sticks out a jab, and they trade leg kicks on the inside. When Li charges in recklessly, Rodriguez quickly intercepts him with a short left. The jab for Rodriguez is working effectively, and Li is getting more wild and throwing heavier with wider arcs. Rodriguez sees them coming and sticks the jab in Li’s face repeatedly. Li sits down on an inside leg kick, and he gets backed off from a punch to the chest. Rodriguez connects with a solid kick on the inner thigh, and he aims another to the same spot. Rodriguez checks a kick and sticks his hands out, but Li swats them away. They grade these tit-for-tat strikes one after the other, as if taking turns to compete. Rodriguez turns up the pace briefly with a series of jabs, and he pulls back when Li winds up with a big left hand. Rodriguez dodges several winging punches, and the crowd begins to boo the two fighters for their swings and misses. Both men get off heavy leg kicks, and they come up short with their fists. When Li attempts a Superman punch, Rodriguez catches him with a quick right hook in the way forward, and Li changes his mind about any subsequent shots. Rodriguez scores a left, and Li responds with a booming shot that knocks Rodriguez and appears to hurt him. “The Leech” grins and lets Rodriguez off the hook instead of giving chase, and Rodriguez backs him up to the wall with low kicks and jabs. The American batters the lead leg with kicks, and he goes up high with a kick. Li throws him to the mat, but before he can take advantage, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li

Round 3
The gloves are touched to lead off the final period, and Rodriguez advances but does not throw much. Li counters him with a straight right, and they go punch for punch and kick for kick in a slow but methodical pace. Li charges, swinging hammers, and Rodriguez backs him off with jabs and checks a leg kick. Li throws bombs, and Rodriguez slips them and comes forward. Li attempts to catch a kick, and he lets go before anything comes from it. Li peppers his man with leg kicks, and he scores a left hand on the ear. Li slaps Rodriguez as the crowd voices its disapproval, and this prompts a brief exchange of fists. Rodriguez takes anything on the chin and venomously retaliates, and Li ricochets off the fencing. Li ducks a hook and swings wide, with exciting near-misses from both men. Rodriguez splits the guard repeatedly with jabs, and he uses them to shut down the biggest blows from his opponent. The leg kicks come from both men, but it is only Rodriguez who checks them. Li ducks down and wings a huge right hand, and Rodriguez guards it just in the nick of time. Rodriguez slips and counters, and he keeps his jab in Li’s face one after the next. Li targets the body with a straight right, but it is one-and-done as Rodriguez marks him up with jabs. Rodriguez follows one jab with a left hand, and Li does not react well to it. Li backs off, his volume diminishing, but Rodriguez is unable to find his chin with anything of merit. Li sits down on a right hand, Rodriguez throws back with a vengeance. The slow-paced match comes to a merciful close after 15 minutes, but these two deserve all the props – and Li more than anyone else tonight – for taking this difficult opponent switch in stride.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Jingliang Li via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight) Confident No clear pick

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.

"I am going to go with Kevin here I think he's going to be bigger I think he's going to be more powerful I think he's more accurate I don't think he's the more technical striker but I do think he's more accurate."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight) Confident No clear pick

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.

"It's Kevin Holland for me here I'll say Kevin Holland by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Lean No clear pick

Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.

Li Jingliang under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"i'm leaning towards ferguson so for the purpose of this show at plus 270 ferguson will be my pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Lean No clear pick

Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.

Over 2.5 rounds at -110 mentioned as a possibility
"I lean kevin holland but it would not surprise me one bit to see uh danielle rodriguez come out here and get this dove."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert
Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight) Confident Daniel Rodriguez

Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.

"I see this exactly and I mean to a T like the Nathaniel Wood and Charles Jourdain fight... Daniel Rodriguez is the Nathaniel Wood of this matchup he's going to be the more technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight) Lean Li Jingliang

The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.

Li Jingliang by KO (+110)
"I am picking Lee to win by KO but it's such a close fight... I would rather point you towards this KO line at +110."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident No clear pick

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.

"i think tony ferguson has a solid shot here and i'm actually just surprised like the size of dog that he is"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Sep 10, 2022 (fight day) Confident Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.

TKO at the end of the second round
"Legion Liang sees him coming dips under it lands a big shot lands a left hook and puts down d-rod and finishes him by TKO at the end of the second round"
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:38 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 38 of 87 43% 40 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Muslim Salikhov 0 23 of 56 41% 33 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 11 of 36 30% 12 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Muslim Salikhov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Li Jingliang 1 27 of 51 52% 28 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Muslim Salikhov 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 38 of 87 43% 13 of 49 12 of 18 13 of 20 30 of 75 6 of 8 2 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 23 of 56 41% 18 of 48 3 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 51 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 11 of 36 30% 2 of 19 1 of 4 8 of 13 11 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Muslim Salikhov 11 of 22 50% 8 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Li Jingliang 27 of 51 52% 11 of 30 11 of 14 5 of 7 19 of 40 6 of 7 2 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 12 of 34 35% 10 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jingliang Li vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-175), Li (+150)

Round 1
A place in the top 15 at the ultra-competitive welterweight division will serve as the prize for this “featured” fight of the night. Already the #14 fighter according to the UFC, China’s Li (18-7, 10-5 UFC) will try to keep an iron grip on his ranking spot against the confidently nicknamed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (18-2, 5-1 UFC). While Salikhov has earned two-thirds of his career wins by knockout, “The Leech” has never been stopped by strikes, although Salikhov will put that to the test. Referee Dan Miragliotta keeps things on the up-and-up, even as gloves are touched before his eyes. Both fighters circle one another for a time, until Li sits down on a single leg kick. Salikhov answers him with a spinning wheel kick that hammers into the guard. A lull in the action again ensues, until Li darts forward with two looping punches. When those do not land, a leg kick does. Li jabs to the body, and he lifts his leg up but Salikhov still kicks it and makes him spin around. Salikhov jumps with a knee, and then spins with an untelegraphed spinning back kick that Li jumps back and avoids. The spinning strikes are likely going to be the weapon of choice for the Dagestan native for much of this fight. As Li kicks low, Salikhov rushes forward, lifts up the leg and slams the Chinese fighter down to the mat. Li keeps his guard high and tight, shutting down most of the offense that could come at him, and this draws a warning from Miragliotta. Salikhov stacks Li up to break out of the guard, and Li smacks Salikhov with an illegal but uncalled upkick. Salikhov stands back up, and he spins with a back kick that partially lands on the body. Salikhov checks a kick and is well out of harm’s way when Li throws one high. Salikhov swarms forward, but he backs off as Li is ready to greet him with a short right hand. The spinning back fist from Salikhov misses the mark, as Li anticipates it. A spinning back kick from the Russian connects with the arm of his foe, and Li bounces back and forth until trying to sweep the leg. Li wings a left hook, and Salikhov is slick and avoiding everything that soars at or past him. Salikhov sinks a leg kick home on the inside of the knee, and he stuffs an oncoming takedown as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up to start off the second round, and crowd is ready for action and possibly spoiled due to the madness from the Mudaerji-Schnell fight. These two answer the call with a few big punches, and Salikhov catches a leg and knocks Li off his feet with a big left hand. When Li gets up, he just manages to avoid a spinning wheel kick that would have knocked his block off. Li continues coming forward, avoiding a few punches on the way in and swinging his way to close the distance. Salikhov sneaks away but absorbs a jab on the way out. Salikhov come up short with an uppercut from the “Mortal Kombat” playbook, and Li thanks his lucky stars that he did not absorb that momentous blow. The accuracy rates are likely low in this match, as both men are putting almost everything into one-hitter quitters. Li misses with a winging punch, and Salikhov answers him with a low kick. Salikhov checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a body lock takedown attempt. Li manages to wrestle him down, where he lands in half guard but cannot keep him there for more than a few seconds. Salikhov gets up and does not absorb any damage or find himself in danger from any submission, and he plants a one-two on the chin as Li leans over to avoid it. The spinning kick from Salikhov is slower than before, and Li sees it coming from a distance and keeps that distance to avoid it. Li looks for a short counter as Salikhov blitzes him, and Salikhov still connects with a clean right. The spinning kick for Salikhov grazes off the midsection, with Li bouncing back to evade the brunt of the damage.
Li, irritated by the pace, winds up with a monstrous right hand that slams straight into the face of the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov is in a bad way as he staggers back, and Li gives him chase and nails him with another. When Salikhov is about to gather himself, Li bullies him back to the wall and ducks down with a jab to the body. Li lets go with a left hook and follows it with a destructive right that sends Salikhov collapsing down to the mat. Knowing the finish is in sight, “The Leech” leaps down and sucks the life out of Salikhov with a pair of ferocious elbows.
Seeing that Salikhov is done like dinner, Miragliotta moves in and stops the fight, even as Salikhov sits up and shrugs at the finishing sequence. This is a solid bounceback victory for Li, who leaps to the top of the cage and holds a Chinese flag high.

The Official Result
Jingliang Li def. Muslim Salikhov R2 4:38 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight) Confident Muslim Salikhov

Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.

moneyline bet at -170
"i think salakov absolutely gets this done i like the technical striking i like the power i like the takedown threats i think salkov is a clear win i got a money line bet on him at minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert
Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight) Lean Li Jingliang

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.

"i'm gonna take the dog here in the leech to get it done not a ton of confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight) Lean Li Jingliang

Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.

"i think i'm going to take another underdog shot here on the leech but something i don't have a ton of confidence"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight) Lean Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.

decision win likely; counter-heavy approach
"i'm leaning salak off here it's just i know what we're up against"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight) Confident Muslim Salikhov

Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.

Salikhov over 1.5 takedowns
"i think salikov if he can mix in those takedowns steal rounds make it a little bit greasy in that respect i think he covers his price at minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight) Confident Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang over Muslim Salikhov, citing Li's power, chin, and cardio advantage. He notes Salikhov's age (38) and unimpressive recent performances, including a close fight with Francisco Trinaldo. He believes Li's unorthodox striking and durability will lead to a decision win or a late finish.

"i'm gonna go with lee jing liang muslim salakov although very good maybe in his heyday back in the 80s um he is 38 years of age"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert
Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.

Chimaev by submission (round 2)
"Give me comments that you may have and give me comments that you might have to to win i'll say i'll say submission i'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.

"this is just such a stylistical perfect matchup"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i'm gonna stay away from a betting thing i'm gonna just enjoy this one because the line's just too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.

Chimaev inside distance -165, under 1.5 rounds -110, live bet on Li if fight goes to round 2.
"If you're betting chemiev you might as well take the under one and a half because that's more than likely the way that he wins."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.

Inside distance -175 (considered but not chosen)
"hamzat hamzat smash um i would be pretty stunned to see him lose this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight) Confident Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission. He highlights Chimaev's superior grappling and size, noting that Li Jingliang has been outgrappled by lesser grapplers like Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Sean Brady. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will make Li hesitant to throw. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after Chimaev outgrapples Li.

submission in the second round
"she may have outgrapples lee jingliang submits him in the second round with like punches to like a rear naked choke"
KO (punch) R1 4:25 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 11 of 18 61% 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 21 of 50 42% 6 of 30 3 of 6 12 of 14 20 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 11 of 18 61% 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 21 of 50 42% 6 of 30 3 of 6 12 of 14 20 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert
Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight) Hesitant Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as good play but not betting)
"i'm going to take ponzinibb to win by decision here but i'll probably wouldn't lay the minus 275 a little bit steep for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight) Lean Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.

"i got santiago ponzinibbio here but let's pay attention friday see how he looks on the scales"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight) Lean Santiago Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.

Over 1.5 rounds is the preferred play; Ponzinibbio by decision is the prediction.
"the spot that i like most in this fight is the over one and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight) Confident Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.

"i'm going to go with santiago ponzinibio in a decision 30-27 win"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 74 of 139 53% 123 of 188 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:04
Li Jingliang 0 16 of 62 25% 16 of 65 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 12 of 32 37% 21 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
Li Jingliang 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
2 Neil Magny 0 26 of 42 61% 58 of 74 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:17
Li Jingliang 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
3 Neil Magny 0 36 of 65 55% 44 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Li Jingliang 0 7 of 35 20% 7 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 74 of 139 53% 56 of 118 12 of 15 6 of 6 34 of 96 18 of 20 22 of 23
Li Jingliang 16 of 62 25% 11 of 50 1 of 3 4 of 9 13 of 53 3 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 12 of 32 37% 7 of 26 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1
Li Jingliang 8 of 23 34% 5 of 15 1 of 2 2 of 6 6 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 26 of 42 61% 24 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 28 13 of 14 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 36 of 65 55% 25 of 52 6 of 8 5 of 5 13 of 41 2 of 2 21 of 22
Li Jingliang 7 of 35 20% 5 of 31 0 of 1 2 of 3 7 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
170: Neil Magny vs. Jingliang Li

Round 1
Returning from the longest layoff in his career, the traditionally ultra-active Magny (21-7, 14-6 UFC) comes back after over 15 months away to take on China’s Li (17-5, 9-3 UFC) at welterweight. Can Li start the night off in a big way for Chinese MMA, or will the Elevation Fight Team staple spoil his party? Referee Keith Peterson will find out, just like the rest of us, but he will permit approximately zero nonsense. The two touch gloves, and Magny starts out backing Li away but taking a low kick. Li swings heavily and throws another leg kick, so Magny gets him to backpedal with a string of jabs. The American ducks down to throw an overhand right, but he falls short and evades a low kick. Magny keeps the jab going, and whiffs with a step-in elbow as Li is content to target the lead leg with short, quick kicks. Magny decides to emulate the success of Li by firing a low kick, leading Li to charge in and go for a clinch. Magny tries to break free, but gives up his back as Li tries to wrench Magny down to the canvas. He does, but only for a moment, and Magny gets back up. Li cracks Magny with a monster right hand, and Magny is hurt badly. “The Leech” pours it on with more punches while Magny tries to get out, and he shoots in low and scores a takedown to put Li on his back. Li returns standing again, and now Magny takes his back briefly. Li spins himself out of the dangerous position and presses Magny against the fence, before trying to crack him with a short uppercut and then hit a single. Magny stands him up, and the two separate before any more significant strikes land. Magny pops him with a jab, and rushes in to clinch, before throwing a few heavy knees to the body. Li changes levels to go after a double, and Magny thwarts it but is ultimately tripped down. Li is only able to maintain top position momentarily before Magny shoves him away and gets up. Magny stings Li with a few powerful jabs, and then steps in with a knee before landing another. The jab for Magny has had great success, and Magny is not out of this fight quite yet. We hear the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magny

Round 2
Seeing that he was successful last round with them, Magny chains together several stiff jabs to start the round before leaping forward with a knee. Li takes the jabs but avoids the knee, and clinches up to hunt for a trip takedown. Magny reverses the position to turn Li against the fence, and nearly lands a takedown of his own. The American starts pouring on the punches, while Li grabs the fence repeatedly to stop Magny’s aggression. Li drops low for a double before transitioning to a single, and Magny nearly lifts Li up to slam him down face-first -- this would almost certainly be illegal. Li keeps his balance and changes it up to a single, but Magny holds firm and turns him around. Magny tags him with a powerful shoulder strike that we have seen more often lately, and the two turn each other around against the fence. Magny scoops him up and drops him, where Li gives up his back while trying to stand to his feet. Magny lands a few more punches, and it appears that Li is starting to fade while Magny is still firing on all cylinders. Li breaks free with a big right hand, but Magny rolls with it and is the fresher of the two as he scores a few jabs before crashing back into the clinch. Li once more goes low for a double leg takedown, and then goes back to a single, while Magny works the side of his head with elbows. Li tries to punch his way out of the clinch, and Magny times him with some powerful punches as Li keeps his head movement going to avoid the shots. Magny targets him with some long, nasty punches and Li can do nothing but eat them one after the other. The American pulls him down to the cage floor, landing in mount to end the round in style.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Magny
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Magny

Round 3
Magny bounces forward to start the final round, and Li is the one loading up with everything he has in these last shots. Magny sees them coming from a mile away, and avoids them while piecing Li up from the outside. The Chinese fighter wades forward with punches, but misses wildly as Magny flicks out the jab a few more times. The double jab is followed with a solid right, before another jab comes out. The American evades the looping power shots coming his direction, and drops down to aim for a takedown. Li stuffs it and circles around to take Magny’s back, but Magny breaks free and nearly lands a head kick on the way out. The jabs are adding up fast for Magny, as Li is confounded by them while recklessly charging forward and missing by a long way. Li lands a heavy leg kick, but Magny sticks his jab out in Li’s face. Another loud leg kick lands for Li, and he cannot capitalize with any follow-up punches. Magny crashes forward and gets him against the fence, before landing two knees and then separating. Li aims for an uppercut but is unsuccessful, and Magny hits a trip to get Li down on the ground. With Li’s arm trapped, Magny starts to throw a few punches with his left hand. The American steps over into mount for a second, before pursuing the back as Li tries to stand up. Magny drops down several powerful punches, and Li scrambles and takes two strong knees to the posterior. Magny throws punches and elbows to all parts of Li’s body, nearly shouting as he connects with them. Li stands up, and tries to throw everything he has left into one big right hand, but there is nothing doing. Magny backs away, and time expires. This is a statement performance for Magny, who comes back in a major way against a top-flight welterweight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny (30-26 Magny)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Magny (30-27 Magny)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magny (30-26 Magny)

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jingliang Li via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert
Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight) Confident Li Jingliang

Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.

Daniel mentions he would have had a 10-unit play on Luque if Magny had fought him, but now Li gets to feast on the carcass. He picks Li via knockout.
"I'm gonna go with Li Jingliang here via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight) Lean Neil Magny

Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.

Bet 0.75 units at +175 or better.
"I like Neil here and I might bet him at the plus 175 range... Neil Magny by decision definitely a live dog."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight) Confident Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang, citing his recent activity, momentum, and youth advantage over Neil Magny, who hasn't fought since a KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. He notes Li's win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was impressive and expects Li to finish Magny in the second or third round.

finish in the second or third round
"Li Jing Li I'm getting to finish in the second and third round I think he's got it in him"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Aug 31, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 3 59 of 128 46% 59 of 128 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:22
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 54 of 160 33% 55 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 1 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Li Jingliang 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 25 of 64 39% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Li Jingliang 2 23 of 49 46% 23 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 57 31% 19 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 59 of 128 46% 45 of 108 4 of 6 10 of 14 47 of 113 8 of 11 4 of 4
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 54 of 160 33% 23 of 114 21 of 33 10 of 13 51 of 156 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 39 28% 1 of 22 5 of 11 5 of 6 10 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Li Jingliang 24 of 56 42% 20 of 52 1 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 25 of 64 39% 10 of 47 11 of 12 4 of 5 23 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Li Jingliang 23 of 49 46% 19 of 41 1 of 2 3 of 6 16 of 41 3 of 4 4 of 4
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 57 31% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs David Zawada
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 4:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 89 of 222 40% 97 of 234 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:16
David Zawada 1 73 of 184 39% 74 of 185 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 13 of 41 31% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
David Zawada 1 24 of 55 43% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
2 Li Jingliang 0 40 of 97 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Zawada 0 31 of 83 37% 31 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Li Jingliang 1 36 of 84 42% 36 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
David Zawada 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 89 of 222 40% 59 of 183 10 of 11 20 of 28 81 of 204 3 of 12 5 of 6
David Zawada 73 of 184 39% 52 of 159 19 of 23 2 of 2 63 of 162 10 of 20 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 13 of 41 31% 10 of 36 1 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 31 0 of 6 4 of 4
David Zawada 24 of 55 43% 15 of 46 9 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 40 8 of 13 0 of 2
2 Li Jingliang 40 of 97 41% 23 of 77 6 of 6 11 of 14 40 of 95 0 of 2 0 of 0
David Zawada 31 of 83 37% 22 of 72 8 of 10 1 of 1 30 of 80 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Li Jingliang 36 of 84 42% 26 of 70 3 of 3 7 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 4 1 of 2
David Zawada 18 of 46 39% 15 of 41 2 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 42 1 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8 experts, 9 updates)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert
Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.

"Carlos prattes is going to be the pick and uh this is just a really tough welcome back after a two-year layoff for Jing Lang Lee."
BI
Big Brady Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.

decision
"I'm going to take proess to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Hesitant Li Jingliang

Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.

"I'm actually going to take Jing leang Lee but it'll be the PRP pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert 2 video updates
Latest Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.

"I'm calling him to be the first person to knock out uh the leech first time he ever gets knocked out"
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.

Knockout by body shot (prediction, no line mentioned)
"PES is the pick here download and then probably knock out right yeah I I think although Lee is notoriously not a real easy guy to knock out um but I I wouldn't be surprised listen to this prediction I'm gonna get real specific I'm gonna say knockout with the …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert
Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.

"I think pret controls range far better than Daniel Rodriguez who sometimes like gets a little sloppy and mixes it up in a drawing pattern like press is a guy who isn't going to braw he's gonna pick you apart and I think he picks apart Lee jingl really easily …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) Lean Carlos Prates

The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.

Prates by decision
"I'm still going to lean prz ... I'm going to go proess by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert
Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight) No clear pick

Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.

"I think it's pretty clearly a pass and watch Lee get absolutely folded"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert
Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight) Confident Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with Carlos prates over Le Jing leang which hurts but I'm just not going to trust in Le Jing leang to come back"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 1 year ago

Impressive given Li's block head