Career Averages - Carlos Prates
Career Averages - Li Jingliang
Carlos Prates
Li Jingliang
Carlos Prates - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 53 of 90 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Carlos Prates | 3 | 104 of 193 | 53% | 104 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 36 of 79 | 45% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Carlos Prates | 2 | 46 of 69 | 66% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 41 of 76 | 53% | 25 of 52 | 8 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 104 of 193 | 53% | 79 of 164 | 11 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 89 of 171 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 15 of 30 | 50% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 25 of 39 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 36 of 79 | 45% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 46 of 69 | 66% | 39 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 20 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.
Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.
Connor picks Della Maddalena based on a technical advantage. He describes Della Maddalena as always technically sharp, locked into the tactical back-and-forth, with a boxer-like sophistication that Prates lacks. He notes Prates hits hard and is tough, but his game has empty space and he makes mistakes. Connor says Della Maddalena can pressure and exploit Prates' bad footwork habits.
Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.
Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.
The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.
Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.
Zane picks Della Maddalena based on his technical boxing sophistication and ability to pressure. He notes that Della Maddalena is a tremendous problem solver who enjoys difficult exchanges, and that Prates' game relies on opponents making big mistakes. Zane believes Della Maddalena can pressure, clinch, and wrestle his way to a win, though he acknowledges Prates' power and toughness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 12 of 17 | 70% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 21 of 32 | 65% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 15 | 80% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-198), Edwards (+164)
Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. They start in matching southpaw stances and trade low kicks. They both land more leg kicks and then Prates moves foreward with a jab. Prates defends a takedown from Edwards. Prates lands a knee on the inside. Both welterweights continue to land low kicks. Edwards shoots and shoves Prates into the fence. Prates defends and stays upright. Edwards brings a knee. Prates is talking to Edwards as they remain in the clinch. Peterson has seen enough and they separate. Back at range, Prates steps in with a knee. Edwards times a level change nicely and takes Prates down. Edwards looks to take the back and makes Prates carry him like a backpack as the Brazilian stands. Prates fights off the hands to prevent a choke. A few short shots to the side of the head for Edwards. Edwards jumps off the back and takes Prates down. Edwards threatens with a rear-naked choke late in the round but Prates survives.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Round 2
Edwards fires off a front kick. Prates with a low kick. Edwards counters a low kick with a left hand. Prates sticks a crisp jab. A leg kick spins Edwards around. The welterweights trade lefts as Prates keeps talking to his foe. The Brazilian pumps his jab while chattering away. A nice counter lands for Edwards following a Prates knee during an exchange. Moments later, Prates lands a long left hand through Edwards’ guard, taking the Englishman clean off his feet. “Rocky” crashes to the canvas and his eyes roll back in his head. Prates dives in and adds one follow-up missile for good measure. “The Nightmare” is the first man to knock out Leon Edwards in his professional MMA career.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Leon Edwards via KO (Punches) R2 1:28
Angelo picks Carlos Prates, noting that Leon Edwards' recent losses were to wrestlers, while Prates is a dangerous striker. He believes Edwards has shown lack of heart recently and Prates' power and accuracy will be too much. He is excited for the fight and confident in Prates.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, believing he is getting Leon Edwards at the right time. He criticizes Edwards for having boring fights and not facing dangerous knockout artists, noting Edwards has never been knocked out but hasn't fought many power punchers. Brady thinks Prates has the 'death touch' and will knock out Edwards if he lets his hands go, predicting a second-round knockout. He acknowledges the risk of a slow start but expects Prates to show urgency.
Cody also picks Prates but calls it a trap line due to recency bias. He notes that Leon has been taken down frequently but that Prates won't wrestle, which could make Leon more comfortable. However, Cody believes Prates is younger, more aggressive, and will land bigger shots. He is concerned about Leon's past performances but ultimately sides with Prates.
Connor picks Prates hesitantly, citing Edwards' recent decline in motivation and tendency to fade in fights. He notes that Prates is a dangerous striker who can capitalize on Edwards' lapses, especially if Edwards backs to the fence. However, he acknowledges Prates' wrestling is unproven and Edwards could out-grapple him.
Daniel believes Prates is catching Edwards at the right time, as Edwards has looked uninspired and has been rocked multiple times. He praises Prates' knockout power and variety of strikes, and notes that Edwards' measured pace plays into Prates' style of downloading data and finding openings. He predicts a knockout win for Prates.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO. He highlights Prates' diverse striking arsenal, especially his devastating knee strikes, and believes Edwards will struggle to stay safe on the feet. He notes Edwards has been hurt by lesser strikers and doubts his ability to grapple effectively against Prates. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in round two or three, continuing his streak of walk-off KOs in the UFC.
Prates stops Edwards' takedowns and boxes him up on the feet, landing better shots to win on the scorecards. However, the odds are a little wide for my liking, indicating some hesitation.
Paul picks Prates, citing that Leon Edwards is on the decline and has shown low volume and a tendency to quit. He notes that Prates is on the rise and has power, and that Leon's wrestling won't be a factor since Prates doesn't rely on takedowns. Paul thinks Prates will land bigger shots and either finish or win a decision.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to KO Leon Edwards in round one or two. He cites Edwards' suspect chin, having been wobbled by Nate Diaz and Belal Muhammad, and believes Prates' power and timing will be too much. He notes that Edwards' movement and range management may not be enough to avoid Prates' left hand. The Guru expects a dramatic finish.
Zane also picks Prates, influenced by Edwards' apparent loss of enjoyment and tendency to become passive. He notes that Prates' pressure and power could catch Edwards, but Edwards' wrestling is a threat. He mentions the closed stance matchup favors Prates' comfort.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)
Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.
Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.
The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.
Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 126 of 242 | 52% | 141 of 259 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 63 of 129 | 48% | 64 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 36 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 33 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 26 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 126 of 242 | 52% | 86 of 185 | 17 of 28 | 23 of 29 | 120 of 231 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 5 |
| Carlos Prates | 63 of 129 | 48% | 38 of 97 | 16 of 21 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 15 of 39 | 38% | 8 of 25 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Carlos Prates | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 26 of 52 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ian Machado Garry | 23 of 42 | 54% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ian Machado Garry | 28 of 41 | 68% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 22 of 38 | 57% | 17 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
Angelo picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates is the better striker, which is key against a primarily striking opponent like Ian Garry. He notes that Garry may try to wrestle, but Prates has better takedown defense than MVP and won't be helpless on the ground. He acknowledges the risk but is confident in Prates' power and range control.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, citing the Fighting Nerds' undefeated record and Prates' power and accuracy. He criticizes Ian Garry's striking defense, noting he backs up with his chin up. He expects Prates to land a big shot and knock out Garry, predicting a second-round knockout.
Connor picks Garry because he believes Garry can exploit Prates' weaknesses: Prates has a wide stance, struggles moving backwards, and defaults to clinching when pressured. Garry can use his reach to pressure, wrestle with authority, and neutralize Prates' game. Connor thinks Garry's ability to make fights ugly and suffocating will lead to a grinding win, even if uninspired.
The host leans Garry slightly, citing his better discipline and technical game. He notes Prates is dangerous and has finished all UFC fights, but Garry is the most technically sound opponent he's faced. Garry's five-round experience and ability to mix striking with grappling should lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO in round two. He believes Prates has better finishing potential and composure, while Garry is nervous early and has a tendency to throw low kicks in elbow distance, leaving him open. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and that Prates has good balance and takedown defense. He expects Prates to hurt Garry in round one and finish him in round two.
Zane picks Prates despite acknowledging Garry's advantages, because he expects Garry to be passive and fight on the back foot, which gives Prates room to work. Zane notes Prates has a great eye for defensive openings and can pick up on Garry's timing issues. He also mentions Prates' finishing ability and the fact that Garry has been less aggressive recently, but admits Prates has never fought five rounds and could gas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)
Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.
Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.
Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.
Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.
Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 41 of 111 | 36% | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 55 of 84 | 65% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 2 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 41 of 111 | 36% | 12 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 25 of 37 | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 55 of 84 | 65% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 26 of 66 | 39% | 7 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 19 | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 15 of 45 | 33% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 18 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.
Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.
Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.
Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.
The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.
Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Charles Radtke | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Charles Radtke | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Radtke | 15 of 36 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Radtke | 15 of 36 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-238), Radtke (+195)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, and one of these two unheralded competitors will be forced to suffer their first UFC loss while the other will maintain either a seven- or nine-fight win streak. Victorious in his last six, Radtke (9-3, 2-0 UFC) puts that on the line against Brazilian striker Prates (18-6, 1-0 UFC), who has not lost since a One Championship appearance in 2019. Drawing the charge will be referee Blake Grice, and the intense showdown kicks off without a glove touch. Radtke switches stances several times to work his way forward, while Prates kicks at his foe’s knee to push him back. Radtke whips a low kick as Prates recoils his leg, and a Prates head kick bounces harmlessly off the guard. Radtke punches his way into a single-leg takedown entry, pushing “Carlao” against the fence and holding up a leg. With Prates bent over, Radtke bops Prates many times with short, annoying punches, and he breaks off and lands one heavy right hand. Prates nails his foe’s front calf with a kick, and after Radtke flies by with a kick, he scores his own leg kick. Radtke has another kick land with a thud, and he winds up everything into a right hook that flies by his opponent. Radtke crashes forward in pursuit of a single, and he lets it go and misses with an overhand right. Two punches from Radtke miss the mark, but a leg kick does connect. Prates bobs and weaves his way forward, and he has his head snapped back by a right hand. Prates blasts the front leg with a kick, and Radtke starts limping as swelling forms almost immediately. Prates leans back from the counter and tags “Chuck Buffalo” with a right, and he backs off as Radtke tries to let him have it. A fake takedown from Radtke is stifled when Prates pokes him in the eye, and Grice calls time and lets Radtke take about 20 seconds to blink it out. When they resume, Prates starts to stalk his man down, his hands low and allowing him to eat a right hand so he can throw punches from strange angles. Radtke sneaks in a left hand before his lead leg is kicked hard, and Prates measures him with a straight left hand and lets out a woo.
The Brazilian rips a knee to the liver as clean as can be, and Radtke hits the deck and is completely done. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and Grice waves off the fight.
The victorious “Carlao” goes over to Radtke’s corner, where he yells something at upcoming title challenger Belal Muhammad. With that crushing stoppage on the board, this is the first finish of the night and the first knockout in quite some time.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Charlie Radtke R1 4:47 via KO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo leans Charles Radtke, but with low confidence. He notes that Radtke is a grappler who has shown good hands recently, while Prates is a dangerous striker but low volume. He thinks Radtke's forward pressure and takedowns could be key, but if he rushes in recklessly, he could get knocked out. He sees it as a close fight where Radtke's pressure might be the difference.
Big Brady picks Charles Radtke as a big underdog to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Prates is overrated and notes that Prates was losing to Trevin Giles before a comeback KO. He believes Radtke can make it a brawl and potentially knock Prates out, though he acknowledges Prates has advantages in height, reach, and youth.
Cody picks Radtke as an underdog, noting that Prates has low volume and questionable durability, as seen in his fight against Trevin Giles. Radtke is aggressive, has power, and is a BJJ black belt with multiple win conditions. Cody believes Radtke can pressure Prates, take him down, or knock him out. He sees value in the plus money.
Daniel is confident in Prates, citing his Muay Thai, reach, experience, and finishing ability. He compares Prates to Anderson Silva in terms of length and southpaw stance, and expects a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Radtke is well-rounded but not special anywhere, and that Prates' seasoning and physical advantages should prevail.
Jacob is very confident in Charles Radtke, calling him the lock of the week. He praises Radtke's toughness, pressure, and grappling. He thinks Radtke will push Prates against the cage, take him down, and likely submit him. He notes that Prates has no plan B and relies on one-punch power, but Radtke has a good chin and will break him. Jacob also mentions that he predicted Prates' last fight correctly.
Prates has extensive kickboxing experience and excellent takedown defense, which should allow him to stuff Radtke's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet. Radtke has power but is less technical. Prates should eventually land a knockout, though the -230 line is a bit wide given Radtke's danger.
Paul is tempted by Radtke at plus money but is nervous about laying the price on Prates. He notes Prates' finishing ability but also his low volume and the fact that he was losing to Giles before the knockout. Paul considers it a dogger pass but might take Radtke.
The Guru picks Prates because he is more effective at range on the feet, with 78 inches of reach in welterweight. He notes Radtke looked bad against Blood Diamond and though he has KO power, Prates is younger and on a good win streak including kickboxing. He predicts a second-round TKO for Prates.
Li Jingliang - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 41 of 111 | 36% | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 55 of 84 | 65% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 2 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 41 of 111 | 36% | 12 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 25 of 37 | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 55 of 84 | 65% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 26 of 66 | 39% | 7 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 19 | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 15 of 45 | 33% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 18 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.
Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.
Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.
Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.
The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.
Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 78 of 175 | 44% | 78 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 88 of 185 | 47% | 89 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 78 of 175 | 44% | 25 of 103 | 23 of 34 | 30 of 38 | 78 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 88 of 185 | 47% | 54 of 140 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 22 | 88 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 54 | 50% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 20 of 40 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 24 of 59 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 16 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 62 | 43% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 79 | 43% | 25 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.
Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.
Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.
Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.
The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 40 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 33 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 12 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 28 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 38 of 87 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 12 of 18 | 13 of 20 | 30 of 75 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 23 of 56 | 41% | 18 of 48 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 11 of 36 | 30% | 2 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 27 of 51 | 52% | 11 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 12 of 34 | 35% | 10 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-175), Li (+150)
Round 1
A place in the top 15 at the ultra-competitive welterweight division will serve as the prize for this “featured” fight of the night. Already the #14 fighter according to the UFC, China’s Li (18-7, 10-5 UFC) will try to keep an iron grip on his ranking spot against the confidently nicknamed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (18-2, 5-1 UFC). While Salikhov has earned two-thirds of his career wins by knockout, “The Leech” has never been stopped by strikes, although Salikhov will put that to the test. Referee Dan Miragliotta keeps things on the up-and-up, even as gloves are touched before his eyes. Both fighters circle one another for a time, until Li sits down on a single leg kick. Salikhov answers him with a spinning wheel kick that hammers into the guard. A lull in the action again ensues, until Li darts forward with two looping punches. When those do not land, a leg kick does. Li jabs to the body, and he lifts his leg up but Salikhov still kicks it and makes him spin around. Salikhov jumps with a knee, and then spins with an untelegraphed spinning back kick that Li jumps back and avoids. The spinning strikes are likely going to be the weapon of choice for the Dagestan native for much of this fight. As Li kicks low, Salikhov rushes forward, lifts up the leg and slams the Chinese fighter down to the mat. Li keeps his guard high and tight, shutting down most of the offense that could come at him, and this draws a warning from Miragliotta. Salikhov stacks Li up to break out of the guard, and Li smacks Salikhov with an illegal but uncalled upkick. Salikhov stands back up, and he spins with a back kick that partially lands on the body. Salikhov checks a kick and is well out of harm’s way when Li throws one high. Salikhov swarms forward, but he backs off as Li is ready to greet him with a short right hand. The spinning back fist from Salikhov misses the mark, as Li anticipates it. A spinning back kick from the Russian connects with the arm of his foe, and Li bounces back and forth until trying to sweep the leg. Li wings a left hook, and Salikhov is slick and avoiding everything that soars at or past him. Salikhov sinks a leg kick home on the inside of the knee, and he stuffs an oncoming takedown as the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up to start off the second round, and crowd is ready for action and possibly spoiled due to the madness from the Mudaerji-Schnell fight. These two answer the call with a few big punches, and Salikhov catches a leg and knocks Li off his feet with a big left hand. When Li gets up, he just manages to avoid a spinning wheel kick that would have knocked his block off. Li continues coming forward, avoiding a few punches on the way in and swinging his way to close the distance. Salikhov sneaks away but absorbs a jab on the way out. Salikhov come up short with an uppercut from the “Mortal Kombat” playbook, and Li thanks his lucky stars that he did not absorb that momentous blow. The accuracy rates are likely low in this match, as both men are putting almost everything into one-hitter quitters. Li misses with a winging punch, and Salikhov answers him with a low kick. Salikhov checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a body lock takedown attempt. Li manages to wrestle him down, where he lands in half guard but cannot keep him there for more than a few seconds. Salikhov gets up and does not absorb any damage or find himself in danger from any submission, and he plants a one-two on the chin as Li leans over to avoid it. The spinning kick from Salikhov is slower than before, and Li sees it coming from a distance and keeps that distance to avoid it. Li looks for a short counter as Salikhov blitzes him, and Salikhov still connects with a clean right. The spinning kick for Salikhov grazes off the midsection, with Li bouncing back to evade the brunt of the damage.
Li, irritated by the pace, winds up with a monstrous right hand that slams straight into the face of the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov is in a bad way as he staggers back, and Li gives him chase and nails him with another. When Salikhov is about to gather himself, Li bullies him back to the wall and ducks down with a jab to the body. Li lets go with a left hook and follows it with a destructive right that sends Salikhov collapsing down to the mat. Knowing the finish is in sight, “The Leech” leaps down and sucks the life out of Salikhov with a pair of ferocious elbows.
Seeing that Salikhov is done like dinner, Miragliotta moves in and stops the fight, even as Salikhov sits up and shrugs at the finishing sequence. This is a solid bounceback victory for Li, who leaps to the top of the cage and holds a Chinese flag high.
The Official Result
Jingliang Li def. Muslim Salikhov R2 4:38 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.
Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.
Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.
Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang over Muslim Salikhov, citing Li's power, chin, and cardio advantage. He notes Salikhov's age (38) and unimpressive recent performances, including a close fight with Francisco Trinaldo. He believes Li's unorthodox striking and durability will lead to a decision win or a late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 25 of 25 | 100% | 58 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 25 of 25 | 100% | 58 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 25 | 100% | 25 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 25 | 100% | 25 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.
Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.
Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.
Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.
Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.
The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission. He highlights Chimaev's superior grappling and size, noting that Li Jingliang has been outgrappled by lesser grapplers like Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Sean Brady. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will make Li hesitant to throw. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after Chimaev outgrapples Li.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 11 of 18 | 61% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 14 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 11 of 18 | 61% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 14 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.
Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.
Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 74 of 139 | 53% | 123 of 188 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:04 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 16 of 62 | 25% | 16 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 58 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 44 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 7 of 35 | 20% | 7 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 74 of 139 | 53% | 56 of 118 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 96 | 18 of 20 | 22 of 23 |
| Li Jingliang | 16 of 62 | 25% | 11 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 13 of 53 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 8 of 23 | 34% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 26 of 42 | 61% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 36 of 65 | 55% | 25 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 22 |
| Li Jingliang | 7 of 35 | 20% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.
Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang, citing his recent activity, momentum, and youth advantage over Neil Magny, who hasn't fought since a KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. He notes Li's win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was impressive and expects Li to finish Magny in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 59 of 128 | 46% | 59 of 128 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 54 of 160 | 33% | 55 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 2 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 19 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 59 of 128 | 46% | 45 of 108 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 47 of 113 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 54 of 160 | 33% | 23 of 114 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 51 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 11 of 39 | 28% | 1 of 22 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 24 of 56 | 42% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 25 of 64 | 39% | 10 of 47 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 23 of 49 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 18 of 57 | 31% | 12 of 45 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 89 of 222 | 40% | 97 of 234 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| David Zawada | 1 | 73 of 184 | 39% | 74 of 185 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| David Zawada | 1 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| David Zawada | 0 | 31 of 83 | 37% | 31 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 36 of 84 | 42% | 36 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| David Zawada | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 89 of 222 | 40% | 59 of 183 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 28 | 81 of 204 | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
| David Zawada | 73 of 184 | 39% | 52 of 159 | 19 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 63 of 162 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 13 of 41 | 31% | 10 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| David Zawada | 24 of 55 | 43% | 15 of 46 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 77 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 40 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| David Zawada | 31 of 83 | 37% | 22 of 72 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 80 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 36 of 84 | 42% | 26 of 70 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 32 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| David Zawada | 18 of 46 | 39% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.
Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.
Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.
Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.
The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.
Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.
Comments (1)
Impressive given Li's block head
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