UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 242 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jairzinho Rozenstruik
3.48 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa
3.66 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.97 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Moneyline
Caesars -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers -137
Submission
BetWay +2800
Decision
BetMGM +750
Tai Tuivasa
Moneyline
DraftKings +195
KO/TKO
BetRivers +290
Submission
FanDuel +3100
Decision
DraftKings +1100
Jairzinho Rozenstruik - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 25 of 60 41% 145 of 208 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:17
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 17 of 55 30% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 23 47% 32 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 7 of 15 46% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 3 of 19 15% 39 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 17 35% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 11 of 18 61% 74 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 23 17% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 25 of 60 41% 21 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 17 of 55 30% 7 of 43 3 of 3 7 of 9 17 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 7 of 15 46% 0 of 8 2 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 3 of 19 15% 2 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 17 35% 3 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 11 of 18 61% 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 23 17% 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Round 1
Business picks up in the heavyweight division, where Pavlovich (18-3, 6-3 UFC) sets his sights on Rozenstruik (15-5, 9-5 UFC) in a three-round showcase. They have nine sub-minute finishes between them. Smith handles the refereeing duties. The former training partners are ready to go. They meet in the middle without a glove touch. Rozenstruik lands an inside leg kick. Pavlovich answers. The Russian paws with his jab, hoping to exploit his reach advantage. He follows a jab with a thudding overhand right but elects not to follow up. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Neither man looks to eager to throw midway through the round. Pavlovich flicks out his jab and steps forward behind another one-two. Rozenstruik rolls with it. Action somewhat tepid thus far. Low kicks from both men. Smith warns Pavlovich about extending his fingers. The Russian connects with an overhand right. Rozenstruik loses his balance while avoiding an overhand right and winds up on his back, pinned beneath his monstrous counterpart. Pavlovich works his ground-and-pound in half guard. Thirty seconds to go. Body-head shots from the Russian, who looks to have salted away this round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 2
And away we go for the second round. Rozenstruik feints a low kick and thinks better of it. Pavlovich probes with his jab. Rozenstruik down blocks a front kick to the body. Pavlovich resets, keeps his head and feet moving and hunts for potential openings. Again, neither man eager to throw. Inside leg kick from Rozenstruik. Pavlovich steps forward with a left hook, then evades the return fire. Fans growing restless with the inactivity. Pavlovich connects with a counter right hook, drives forward and secures a takedown. He lands in half guard and throws his ground-and-pound into gear. Pavlovich swings his left hand into the Surinamese kickboxer’s head repeatedly, doing more than enough to avoid a restart. Rozenstruik going nowhere with less than a minute on the clock. Looks like he will head to the third round in a significant hole on the scorecards. Pavlovich peppers him with short punches until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pavlovich

Round 3
Rozenstruik likely needs a finish here. The flick jabs at one another. Pavlovich lands with a left hook. Smith asks for more action. They trade powerful left hooks. Neither man goes down. More jabs from both man. Pavlovich steps into a body lock behind an overhand right and secures a takedown. With three minutes to go, Rozenstruik’s situation has grown downright dire. He has shown no ability to get back to his feet thus far. Pavlovich works in half guard, scoring with left hands to the body and forearm strikes to the head. Rozenstruik still flat on his back at the base of his cage. Pavlovich staying busy, even though he has not yet landed anything of consequence. He mixes left hands to the body with rights to the head. Rozenstruik gets to his knees with a minute to go and finally gets back to his feet. They separate with 30 seconds on the clock. Pavlovich buckles his opponent with a counter left hook. Rozenstruik lunges in with a left hook, but the Hail Mary finish he seeks fails to materialize.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Scottie Smith scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 30-27 Pavlovich

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking and counter-striking ability. He notes that Sergei Pavlovich struggles against a jab, as seen in his loss to Volkov. He believes Rozenstruik's Muay Thai and patience will allow him to frustrate Pavlovich and take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Pavlovich's power and speed but thinks Rozenstruik's technique wins.

"I think jarino wins he's the more technical Striker and I think that's what's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady thinks Sergei Pavlovich needs to be aggressive to win. He notes Pavlovich looked terrible against Volkov when he wasn't aggressive, but when he rushes forward he knocks people out. Brady believes if Pavlovich brings aggression, he will sleep Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round. He chalks up the Volkov fight to them being friends/training partners.

first round knockout
"if he brings the aggressiveness in this fight I think he sleeps Rosen stro in round one so I'll say pavich pavlovich to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor picks Pavlovich, believing he can overwhelm Rozenstruik early with his power. He notes that Rozenstruik is a trigger counter puncher who stands with locked knees, making him vulnerable to a bull rush. Connor thinks Pavlovich's loss to Volkov was due to familiarity and that he will revert to his aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Pavlovich hesitates or tries to be technical, he will lose.

"I am actually going to take Pavlovitch here. Split with you once more, just because I think that part of the Volkov thing was he and Volkov being such longtime training partners, that it was actually just one of those …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

James picks Pavlovich to win by knockout in round one, but he is not confident and sees value on Rozenstruik. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to fade if he doesn't get an early KO, and that Rozenstruik has a chance to win by decision or knockout in later rounds. He mentions Rozenstruik's decision prop at +700 as a potential small play. He is undecided on betting Rozenstruik.

Rozenstruik by decision at +700 mentioned as a possible prop; also notes Rozenstruik has value at +275.
"I'm going to pick pavlovich to win via knockout in round one you know that's my official prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik is the technically better striker and will use his mobility, straight jabs, and counters to pick apart Pavlovich's wild combinations. He is expected to win on the scorecards.

"Rozenstruik is the technically better striker here... look for Rozenstruik to pick apart Pavlovich and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round TKO. He believes Pavlovich has a great chin and will remind people he is a top heavyweight. He notes Rozenstruik was finished by Volkov and that Pavlovich took a beating from Volkov but never got finished. He expects a dominant performance.

first round TKO
"Sergey pavlovich I believe will get a first round T TKO this weekend"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Zane picks Rozenstruik, arguing that Pavlovich is a one-dimensional brawler who has not evolved. He notes that Rozenstruik is a durable counter puncher who can settle in and pick apart aggressive fighters. Zane believes Pavlovich's lack of a range game and poor fight IQ will be exposed, and that Rozenstruik's trigger countering will catch him coming in.

"I don't think he's going to beat Rosen Strike. The thing is, he absolutely can't. And it's not just like, oh, he can because he could go out there and solve the problem."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 37 of 126 29% 37 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 91 of 184 49% 92 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 9 of 38 23% 9 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 69 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 67 53% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 37 of 126 29% 19 of 92 6 of 17 12 of 17 37 of 124 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 91 of 184 49% 58 of 146 12 of 16 21 of 22 86 of 177 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 9 of 38 23% 1 of 22 2 of 5 6 of 11 9 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 48 39% 5 of 32 4 of 6 10 of 10 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 38 34% 8 of 28 1 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 69 52% 27 of 57 4 of 6 5 of 6 33 of 65 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 15 of 50 30% 10 of 42 3 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 67 53% 26 of 57 4 of 4 6 of 6 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
TKO (retirement) R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 127 of 215 59% 140 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 22 of 68 32% 27 of 75 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 18 44% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:46
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 47 of 75 62% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Gaziev 0 5 of 19 26% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 48 of 68 70% 52 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Shamil Gaziev 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 14 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 127 of 215 59% 78 of 158 30 of 37 19 of 20 123 of 209 4 of 6 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 22 of 68 32% 16 of 59 5 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 60 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 31 41% 8 of 25 2 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 1 of 2
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 19 of 41 46% 11 of 32 5 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 4 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 47 of 75 62% 24 of 48 16 of 19 7 of 8 47 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 5 of 19 26% 5 of 17 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 48 of 68 70% 35 of 53 7 of 9 6 of 6 45 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
Shamil Gaziev 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)

Round 1
It’s all down to the heavyweights tonight. The big men sport nearly identical finish rates, with their primary method of victory by knockout, so referee Marc Goddard might not need to put in 25 minutes of work here. Former kickboxer Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to blunt the momentum of the undefeated Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC), and he will have five rounds or less to spring the minor betting upset. They touch gloves respectfully, and prepare to handle their business. Rozenstruik circles to the outside, lands a leg kick, and gets himself ready to stop a takedown. Gaziev shoots, and he bounces off the fence when he misses. Rozenstruik strafes to the side and lands a right hand that makes Gaziev lick his lips. Rozenstruik scores a leg kick, and he comes up short on an overhand right. Rozenstruik paws out a jab, and his foe backs him to the fence. Gaziev crashes the pocket for a takedown, and Rozenstruik stands him up immediately and smacks him with a right hand. Rozenstruik jabs, and he avoids a huge right hand. Another Gaziev crashing takedown effort gets stopped in its tracks, and Rozenstruik busts his foe’s nose open with his fists. Gaziev shows little setup when he tries to take the fight down, and does not even bend over so much as he runs straight ahead. Rozenstruik briefly knocks him back with a one-two, and Gaziev gets right back to his constant forward pressure. Rozenstruik scores a right hand and then jabs his way out to safety. Gaziev swings as hard as he can with a left and a monstrous right, and Rozenstruik dodges by a matter of inches. Gaziev plods ahead and then lumbers into a clinch, swinging slow punches all the while. Gaziev drops down to scoop up a single, and he lifts the kickboxer up and slams him down. Gaziev connects with a few short punches from above, and keeps his weight pressed down heavily. The round ends with Gaziev sitting up measuring a strike.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
The big men reach Round 2, and Rozenstruik reintroduces himself with multiple snappy jabs. Gaziev lumbers forward, and Rozenstruik uses head movement to dodge the majority of the big punches coming from the Bahraini. Rozenstruik reaches out with punches and low kicks, and he smiles when eating a jab as they high-five from an exchange. Rozenstruik looks for two punches, and Gaziev sneaks a counter right around the top to back him away. Gaziev pushes out his own jab, and Rozenstruik goes to the body and then reaches out with a one-two. Gaziev smiles when he eats a jab, and he fails to land when swinging at the kickboxer. Gaziev drives a knee right to the belly, and Rozenstruik responds with a single jab. Gaziev swings with more of a hammerfist than a straight punch, and Rozenstruik chops at his lead leg when Gaziev slowly moves forward. Rozenstruik naps out his jab to decent effect, disrupting the oncoming Gaziev until Gaziev simply decides to rumble forward like a tank and go after a single. Rozenstruik uses the wall behind him to keep himself upright, and he pulls his leg down to stop the effort. The two trade knees to the gut, and Gaziev presses tightly to control “Bigi Boy.” Rozenstruik gets in a few more short knees to the body, and Gaziev fails on another takedown effort. Goddard asks them to work as Gaziev stalls out, and Rozenstruik tries to get away again only to be snagged by his opponent and held in the clinch until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
It is the third round, and these two heavyweights are quite fatigued to this point. They meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Rozenstruik stands firm and jabs the head and body. “Bigi Boy” lands a leg kick, and he paws out with several jabs to keep Gaziev at bay. Gaziev clubs his foe with a right hand, and he sneaks another right around the jab to get Rozenstruik’s attention. Rozenstruik throws back with a single right after multiple jabs, and Gaziev’s nose is bloodied and his mouth wide open. Gaziev charges, landing a left hand, but he gets stunned with a right hand that nearly dislodges his mouthpiece. Gaziev holds his mouthguard like it is about to fly out, as he appears to be struggling to breathe. Rozenstruik snaps out jab after jab, and blood sprays from Gaziev’s nose when he absorbs each and every blow. Rozenstruik rips a right hand to the body, and he hops away from the offense from Gaziev that is slow and labored. Gaziev continues to shuffle his mouthpiece, and Rozenstruik opens up with a fierce combination ending with a chopping low kick. Gaziev reaches out with his arms outstretched, and Rozenstruik snaps his head back with a mean jab. Gaziev sits down on a right hand counter, and Rozenstruik has to shake it out and backpedal. Rozenstruik gathers his thoughts and jabs away, and when he lands a leg kick, he gets knocked back with a right hand. The kick did enough damage to draw out a minimal limp, and both men stand in front of one another and engage in a brief, fierce exchange to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, much to the surprise of most prognosticators. Rozenstruik does not change his approach, with jabs and leg kicks completely flustering the undefeated fighter. Rozenstruik’s power jab stops Gaziev from hitting him cleanly, until Gaziev decides he is sick of getting hit and runs forward. Gaziev unleashes several big punches, knocking “Bigi Boy” against the fencing, and he shoots for a takedown to follow and try to take back some momentum. Rozenstruik staves it off and slides away to not get hit by an elbow on the break, and he returns to striking range while Gaziev is chewing on his mouthpiece. Rozenstruik jabs the face and chest, and Gaziev glares at him but does not have the energy reserves to do anything more but look angry. Gaziev tries to throw a single punch, and he does not have the gas to reach his opponent. Rozenstruik opens up with a left and a huge right, seeing that Gaziev is spent. He releases several more heavy punches, stinging the unbeaten fighter, and starts feeling himself. Rozenstruik jabs and smacks Gaziev in the face, and he lets Gaziev swing futilely back his direction. Rozenstruik lets go with additional jabs and doubles up on a leg kick as Gaziev looks down at his damaged limb but does not keep attacking. The jab dislodges Gaziev’s gumshield, and Rozenstruik walks off to celebrate the cool moment as Goddard recovers it and has Gaziev replace it. Rozenstruik surges into action as seconds are left in the round, and he shoots for his own takedown so Gaziev sells out defending it, and he bails on it to unload with a flurry of strikes to end the round. As Gaziev sits on his stool, he seems to tell his corner he cannot continue. The translation is not clear, whether he is injured or exhausted or something else. Gaziev stands up, and with his corner still in the cage, Goddard goes over to them all and calls time. Goddard demands that the corner translate what Gaziev was saying, and eventually they inform him that Gaziev says he cannot see. Goddard has the doctor check out Gaziev, but before the physician can determine any lack of vision, Gaziev shakes his head and seems to motion that he is all done tonight after getting beaten up for 20 minutes. Therefore, it is a stoppage via retirement at the end of the fourth round. It is a crucial win for the former kickboxer, as he strips the 0 from Gaziev’s record, and turns a rough patch to 2-1 in his last three. In his post-fight interview, Rozenstruik welcomes any challenge, and many minds immediately go to Derrick Lewis, as the two sluggers have never met. Next week, it is a massive night for the sport as UFC 299 goes down in Miami with a blockbuster lineup. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Shamil Gaziev R4 5:00 via TKO (Retirement)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.

Full unit bet at -140
"this is Shamil gaze all day long the minus 140 odds on him is a gift from the heavens"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.

won't bet the fight except maybe a prop
"I'll take Rosen stro I'll take him to win by Seal knockout but I mean that this pick can age very badly very fast"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.

"I feel like this is a fight that Rosen struck loses early uh if he gets finished it's over you lose if he doesn't get finished this thing drags on a little bit you're going to get a much better …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.

Gaziev round 1 TKO or submission, fight doesn't go past 4-5 minutes
"I'm going to go godv here minus 145 in my opinion gift of a line we might not be able to get him at this line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.

"he's going to be my pick but yeah honestly at like minus 150 plus 130 it's like I don't know this kind of does feel like a 6040 type of fight to me like I'm not entirely sure it's not …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.

KO win in round 1, underdog bet
"I'm going to go Jairzinho Rozenstruik... I think Rosenstrike can chew him up... getting a KO round one"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
WIN vs Chris Daukaus
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Do not bet on this fight; use both in knockout Kings entries.
"I want to pick dacas here I think he's the better Striker and that sounds stupid because technically speaking I think rosenstruck is but I think Chris has the better footwork he's active he's faster he's busier"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Rozenstruik wins by first round knockout
"I'm gonna go rosenstruck to win by first round knockout but I think somebody's getting knocked out here and in probably in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Rozenstruik by knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean towards Die Trying gets in the face lands a couple shots gets his confidence going and then just walks into a counter right hand from rosen's truck the flat lines them so give me a rose …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"I'll go with Rosen strike I'll just say pump and dump buy him this weekend knocks out Chris Chris talk to someone say Curtis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)
"I'm gonna pick Rosen strike for the purposes of this show but I'm more interested in the under one and a half rounds like daucus doesn't yeah I mean you you summed it up very very nicely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

"I think Rosen strike's gonna put him in a spliff so I think Rosen strike owes him in the first round puts him down"
TKO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 37 56% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 21 of 37 56% 10 of 26 5 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 18 33% 3 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)

Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

"i'm gonna side with volkov here i trust his fight iq i trust his move around long striking style to keep him out of danger"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Rozenstruik by KO +200 (mentioned as alternative)
"volkov volkov for the win volkov by decision for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Volkov by decision, over 3.5 rounds
"i got volkov i got vocal by decision i got the over three and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Rozenstruik by knockout +210; one-unit bet
"i'm going with the underdog here i'm not sitting here saying it's max best season i'm not sitting here saying to make a big bet but you know plus 140 plus 145 odds i might take a one unit shot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

Volkov by decision (if available, likely around -200)
"i really struggle to see how jairzinio wins a a decision against alexander volkov so yeah volkov for me minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

"i think he's going to keep rose and strike at range rose and strikes gonna hesitate against a massive opponent"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 32 of 96 33% 113 of 190 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:19
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 68 26% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 19 of 42 45% 27 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 6 of 28 21% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 8 of 37 21% 43 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:20
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 10 of 31 32% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 5 of 17 29% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 2 of 9 22% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 32 of 96 33% 18 of 76 6 of 8 8 of 12 24 of 86 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 68 26% 17 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 1 16 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 19 of 42 45% 10 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 5 11 of 32 0 of 0 8 of 10
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 6 of 28 21% 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 1 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 8 of 37 21% 5 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 4 8 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Curtis Blaydes 5 of 17 29% 3 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Angelo suggests looking at inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik. He says he won't bet the moneyline at -330.
"Curtis blades is my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say curtis blaze does win by knockout tko in that first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Blaydes by decision (+200), Rozenstruik by KO (+400)
"i think he gets the victory and i think if i'm trying to sweeten up a straight up curtis blaze play i think you go with him by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

"i'll lean with blades here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

Jacob discusses the strike line, leaning more for Blaydes and less for Rozenstruik. He also mentions inside the distance decision no action for Rozenstruik.
"blades wins this fight it's going to be copy and paste"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Blaydes inside the distance at +120; Blaydes by submission at +1000
"i'm going blade second round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

Blaydes by decision (+200)
"i'll be picking curtis blades here if i had to bet uh this fight and i'm kind of nervous about it for blades in general"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.

second round tko, prop bet on Rozenstruik first round under a minute
"i'll say second round tko for curtis blades"
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
Tai Tuivasa - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Louie Sutherland 0 21 of 25 84% 111 of 130 5 of 11 45% 0 2 11:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 12 75% 32 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:40
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 3 of 4 75% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louie Sutherland 0 7 of 7 100% 42 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:36
3 Tai Tuivasa 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Louie Sutherland 0 5 of 6 83% 37 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 13 of 22 59% 12 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 9 5 of 5 6 of 8
Louie Sutherland 21 of 25 84% 15 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 7 7 of 9 4 of 5 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 9 of 12 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 5 3 of 3
2 Tai Tuivasa 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
3 Tai Tuivasa 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
The main card opener features a couple of big men in desperate need of a win, in the form of Tuivasa (14-9; 8-9 UFC), who is on a four-fight skid, and Sutherland (10-5; 0-2 UFC), who is winless in two tries in the Octagon. The third man in the cage will be Rich Mitchell. The heavyweights touch gloves, then set up in matchin orthodox stances. Sutherland touches with a calf kick, then another. Sutherland drops levels and rushes forward in search of a takedown. Tuivasa allows himself to be backed up to the fence, where he defends with a front headlock. Sutherland gives up on the takedown and they go back to work on the feet. Sutherland changes levels again and puts Tuivasa on his seat with a double-leg. Tuivasa refuses to concede the takedown, however, scooting on his butt all the way to the fence, grabbing another guillotine and returning to his feet. Tuivasa shucks him off and connects with a flurry of punches on the break. Sutherland is hurt, and Tuivasa nails him with an elbow to the head, followed by a knee. Sutherland grabs hold of Tuivasa and hustles him to the ground with what amounts to a shove, then takes top position. At the midpoint of Round 1, it’s Sutherland on top, dropping short punches and elbows. Tuivasa is working to defend his face and get back to his feet, but Sutherland is heavy on top and very methodical, pulling the Aussie’s base out from under him. Under a minute to go and the Perth crowd grows restive, but Sutherland is plenty active on top, throwing constant punches from half guard. The horn sounds. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 2
Sutherland lands first with an inside low kick. Tuivasa responds with a leg kick of his own. Sutherland shoots for a takedown but Tuivasa uses an underhook to stand him back up as they collide with the fence. Sutherland re-shoots and gets the takedown. Tuivasa powers to his feet and Sutherland tosses him back down, then follows, landing in side control. Sutherland is heavy on top, dropping short punches to the body while keeping within striking distance of an arm-triangle choke. Sutherland grinds an elbow into Tuivasa’s head. The partisan crowd is chanting “stand ‘em up” despite Sutherland being in side control, but he slides into full mount. Sutherland continues to deliver a steady stream of short punches and elbows while moving back to side control. Tuivasa stands back up with 90 seconds left, but Sutherland drives him back to the ground a moment later. Tuivasa is turtled at the base of the fence, controlling Sutherland’s left hand with both of his own. Sutherland sinks a single hook, moves to Tuivasa’s back and appears to be hunting for a choke. Tuivasa bucks straight into a guilllotine attempt a few seconds before the horn. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 3
Sutherland is almost certainly up two rounds to none as the heavies come out for Round 3. Both men actually look pretty fresh considering what a grueling fight it’s been, but Sutherland quickly gets another easy takedown. “The Vanilla Gorilla” sets up in side control, and Mitchell is warning him to stay busy. Sutherland is staying busy, as he did in Rounds 1 and 2, throwing a steady stream of strikes while looking to gradually move to an even more dominant position. Tuivasa bucks, scrambles and gets to all fours, where Sutherland moves to back control, but Tuivasa goes to his back and regains half guard. Sutherland is heavy on top, pelting Tuivasa with little right hands, flattening him out and looking to pass his guard. With a minute to go, Mitchell stands them up. Sutherland tries some kind of spin or roll, collides with a Tuivasa knee and falls to his back. Tuivasa pounces and taked top position, hammering Sutherland with a couple of big punches, then nails him with a flagrantly illegal knee to the head while they are grounded. A few seconds later the final horn sounds, while Mitchell instructs the judges to deduct a point from Tuivasa for the foul. 10-8 Sutherland (30-26 Sutherland).

The Official Result
Louie Sutherland def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Connor picks Sutherland, also after flipping a coin. He says Tuivasa is depressed and going through the motions, and he can't pick him. Sutherland wants to stand and throw haymakers, and Tuivasa doesn't seem to want to do that. Connor acknowledges Sutherland's flaws but has no reason to pick Tuivasa.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm picking Louis Sutherland as well. All right, there we go."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert pick date unknown

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. It's basically …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland after flipping a coin, as he cannot pick Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa is diminished, depressed, and going through the motions. Sutherland wants to stand and throw haymakers, and Tuivasa doesn't even seem to want to do that. Zane acknowledges Sutherland has no form and got nuked by Peričić, but he has no reason to pick Tuivasa.

Odds mentioned: Sutherland opened at +130, now +180; Tuivasa opened at -150, now -210. Zane says gamblers are betting on Tuivasa.
"I'm picking Louis Sutherland as well. I mean, truly, like this is going to be a stupid fucking mess."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tallison Teixeira 0 42 of 58 72% 56 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Tai Tuivasa 0 51 of 74 68% 117 of 144 3 of 9 33% 0 0 7:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tallison Teixeira 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 23 82% 51 of 58 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:57
2 Tallison Teixeira 0 13 of 18 72% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 31 67% 43 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
3 Tallison Teixeira 0 27 of 36 75% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:10
Tai Tuivasa 0 11 of 20 55% 23 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tallison Teixeira 42 of 58 72% 21 of 36 10 of 10 11 of 12 27 of 35 11 of 17 4 of 6
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 74 68% 39 of 60 10 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 47 4 of 4 21 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tallison Teixeira 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 23 82% 16 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 15
2 Tallison Teixeira 13 of 18 72% 3 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 14 of 23 0 of 0 7 of 8
3 Tallison Teixeira 27 of 36 75% 17 of 26 7 of 7 3 of 3 15 of 17 9 of 14 3 of 5
Tai Tuivasa 11 of 20 55% 5 of 13 6 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tallison Teixeira vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-298), Tuivasa (+240)

Round 1
On the main card of this numbered event, two heavyweights clash having gone 0-6 in their last six outings. Granted, five of those six recent defeats are on the ledger of “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (14-8, 8-8 UFC), but Teixeira (8-1, 1-1 UFC) was also felled his last time out by a man Tuivasa crushed in Derrick Lewis. A winking referee Marc Goddard knows these big men will likely get things done before the judges get involved, steeling himself while they tap gloves together.
Tuivasa comes right after the taller Brazilian, and although he bullies Teixeira to the wall, he quickly finds that Teixeira has a double-leg takedown waiting for him. “Xicao” takes the Aussie right off his feet, and he starts pounding on Tuivasa with his fists. Teixeira changes to elbows, prompting Tuivasa to hurry himself to his knees with his side against the cage so that he does not take strikes to both sides of his head. Teixeira tries to hold “Bam Bam” down, but he cannot, so he settles to knee Tuivasa in the gut. Teixeira uses a body lock to trip out Tuivasa, and he climbs into full mount and starts lashing down with elbows. Tuivasa turns to his side, and Teixeira drills him with a ground strike or two until Tuivasa gets wrist control to stop the pounding. Tuivasa looks to his corner for advice, as the 6-foot-8 Brazilian holds him down in a three-quarter mount position.
Teixeira hacks down with elbows to the top and side of the head, and Tuivasa calmly hangs out on bottom until Teixeira loads up with a few more punches. Teixeira lands an elbow on the back of the head when beating down Tuivasa, who looks unconcerned but otherwise fairly helpless. Teixeira controls with his left arm while clubbing Tuivasa with his right, and he mixes in an elbow or two for good measure. Tuivasa sits up and slugs Teixeira off of him, and he takes a knee on the jaw and goes right after Teixeira. Tuivasa loads up on a big right hand, and Teixeira grapples him in the clinch to stop him from further strikes. Tuivasa imposes his weight on the taller man and gets in a knee or two, and he headbutts the Brazilian under the chin. To the surprise of many, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira

Round 2
An energized Tuivasa rushes out of his corner, walking through a front kick so he can sling a big right hand. Teixeira uses his long legs to keep the Aussie at bay, and Tuivasa is headhunting while looking for that huge right hand. He partially connects with one, and is met with a Teixeira knee on the way out. Tuivasa ducks a telegraphed spinning back elbow and jabs the body to set up a right upstairs, and elbows Teixeira as well. Teixeira answers with a thudding body kick, so Tuivasa kicks his legs hard. Tuivasa’s kicks are rapidly disrupting the taller man, so Teixeira gives him one or two back to think about. Tuivasa keeps attacking the lead leg, shrugging off a straight right hand to deliver a huge right hand over the top. Teixeira boots Tuivasa upside the head, and he shoots in for a double and bowls “Bam Bam” over. Tuivasa clings to his man while seated up, and he turns the corner as his shorts fall down. Teixeira is able to turn him back around and put him flat on his back, where he delivers a few elbows to Tuivasa before mounting him.
Teixeira uses 12-to-6 elbows when available, and uses heavy chest-to-chest pressure to keep Tuivasa stuck. Tuivasa looks to his corner when controlled and shakes his head in frustration, and he gets flattened out on his stomach. Teixeira pounds on him with his free left hand, and Tuivasa’s slight head movement protects him from a few of the blows but most get through. Tuivasa turns over to get to his back once more, with Teixeira back to mount looking to execute an Ezekiel choke. Tuivasa breaks the choke grip while “Xicao” holds him down and beats on him. Teixeira flirts with a straight armlock but is met with Tuivasa punches from his back until the second round concludes. Fans boo Teixeira heartily.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira

Round 3
Tuivasa hurries forward to offer a glove touch and start engaging, and he loads up quickly on leg kicks. Tuivasa goes to the body with a left and follows it with a knee, and Teixeira backs him away with a front kick. Tuivasa fakes with his right to open up a strike, and Teixeira answered with a labored takedown attempt that fails miserably. Tuivasa shakes his head at him and loads up on a huge right hand, and Teixeira is feeling it but gets some respite when Tuivasa elects to clinch him. Tuivasa knees the thigh when pressing on the Brazilian, with both fighters likely spent after about 12 minutes of fight thus far. Tuivasa bails on it and starts swinging. Teixeira backs away, stumbling as his balance is starting to betray him, and he nails Tuivasa with two punches coming in. Tuivasa goes for broke with two huge punches, and he hurts Teixeira with them and proceeds to clinch him again. The commentary booth is collectively losing it at Tuivasa’s strategy, seemingly not realizing how exhausted both men are.
Tuivasa slashes his foe in the face with an elbow, and he takes a kick to the liver and puts his hands on his hips. Teixeira does the same, and Tuivasa lumbers towards him and pulls his shorts up, before clinching again. Tuivasa drapes his hands over the top of the cage, and is warned for it, so he starts ripping punches to the body. Tuivasa fights in brief spurts before tying his man up, and he stings Teixeira with a pair of punches and stifles a rough takedown attempt. The color commentators of Daniel Cormier and Michael Bisping are screaming advice to Tuivasa as if they were cornering him, and Tuivasa cannot hear them or does not have the energy to do anything about it. He holds on from on top before working the body a few times, and when Teixeira scrambles, a sweaty Tuivasa slides over the back while swinging as hard as he can. The horrid heavyweight slopfest ends after stunningly going 15 minutes, with both big men needing oxygen tanks after what they produced there.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira but is hesitant due to Tai Tuivasa's weight and layoff concerns. He notes Tai's takedown defense is non-existent and he's on a 5-fight losing skid, while Teixeira is massive and athletic. However, he says if Tai looks good at weigh-ins, he would flip the pick. He emphasizes waiting for weigh-ins.

wait for weigh-ins
"I have to pick Talson to Sher. Tai is fun. He's dangerous, but he is falling behind on the scorecards. He's getting finished."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Big Brady picks Tallison Teixeira by first-round knockout, citing Tai Tuivasa's 0-5 skid and lack of activity (1.5 years out). He notes Teixeira is much bigger and longer with power, and Tuivasa may not be taking his career seriously. Brady expects the fight to end in round one with someone getting served brutally.

Teixeira by KO in round 1
"I'm going to say Terara by first round knockout ... I just can't pick Tai to Vasa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Cody is leaning toward Tuivasa as a value play, despite his five-fight losing streak and long layoff. He notes that Teixeira has never been out of the first round and was nearly finished by Derrick Lewis. He believes Tuivasa has the power to knock out anyone and that Teixeira's chin is untested. However, he admits it's a risky pick and not one he's confident in.

"I think I'm just gonna take to Ivasa, but um on Tech Sera, we made picks for the purposes of the show."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Connor picks Tuivasa because he believes Teixeira is raw and not ready for this step up, and that Tuivasa's experience and toughness could carry him. He notes that Tuivasa has fought elite heavyweights and can survive early exchanges, while Teixeira has never been past the first round. However, he acknowledges that Tuivasa has not improved and could still lose.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Connor questions why the odds are widening in favor of Teixeira given his quick loss to Lewis.
"I guess I'm going to take Tuivasa to break this streak. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Teixeira due to Tuivasa's poor form and weight issues, but he is not confident because Teixeira is unproven and has shown defensive flaws. He notes that Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and may be out of shape, but he is still dangerous. Vreeland calls it a 'lean' and says the minus 300 price is not a great value.

"I'm going to lean towards Tara. Minus 300 ain't much of a lean price though, you know?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

James picks Teixeira to win by KO, noting Tuivasa's five-fight losing streak and lack of focus on MMA. He believes Teixeira is a better striker with more weapons, though he has defensive flaws. James thinks Teixeira will finish Tuivasa early, possibly in round one, but acknowledges Tuivasa's puncher's chance.

"I got to go with Teixeira via KO in round one, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7 BJJ black belt with knockout power, but he can also grapple. Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and seems half-invested in fighting. Teixeira should look to take the fight to the ground where Tuivasa is susceptible to submissions. The host likes Teixeira by submission at +700, noting Tuivasa's vulnerability to submissions. Teixeira's size and physicality will be too much for the fading Tuivasa.

Teixeira by submission (+700)
"I think Terara runs through Tuvasa. ... give me Talison Terara. I'm going to say by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Paul is siding with Teixeira despite not loving the -370 price. He questions Tuivasa's commitment and conditioning after a long layoff and weight gain. He notes that Teixeira is a big heavyweight with power and that Tuivasa has been quitting in recent fights. He expects a first-round knockout either way but prefers the favorite.

"I find hard even with the nice plus money that's behind him, I would find it hard to back him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa despite being an underdog, citing his power, calf kicks, and experience. He believes Tuivasa can drop Teixeira and finish him in the first round, comparing it to a Stephan Struve performance. He acknowledges Teixeira's elbows but thinks Tuivasa's low kicks will be key.

first round TKO, calf kicks as weapon
"I'm going to say that Tituasa gets this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Zane also picks Tuivasa, arguing that Teixeira is a prospect who has never won a fight outside the first round and that Tuivasa is tough enough to not get finished early. He notes that Tuivasa will keep doing the same thing for three rounds if needed, while Teixeira may fall apart if he doesn't get an early finish. However, he calls the fight pointless and bad matchmaking.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Zane comments that the odds are spreading in favor of Teixeira despite his quick loss.
"I think I will too. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 37 of 126 29% 37 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 91 of 184 49% 92 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 9 of 38 23% 9 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 69 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 67 53% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 37 of 126 29% 19 of 92 6 of 17 12 of 17 37 of 124 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 91 of 184 49% 58 of 146 12 of 16 21 of 22 86 of 177 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 9 of 38 23% 1 of 22 2 of 5 6 of 11 9 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 48 39% 5 of 32 4 of 6 10 of 10 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 38 34% 8 of 28 1 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 69 52% 27 of 57 4 of 6 5 of 6 33 of 65 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 15 of 50 30% 10 of 42 3 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 67 53% 26 of 57 4 of 4 6 of 6 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds
"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout
"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO
"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke
"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO
"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO
"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R2 4:37 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 28 of 67 41% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 93 of 143 65% 107 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 51 of 83 61% 53 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Alexander Volkov 0 13 of 28 46% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 42 of 60 70% 54 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 28 of 67 41% 4 of 31 7 of 9 17 of 27 26 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 93 of 143 65% 65 of 110 18 of 21 10 of 12 72 of 115 3 of 3 18 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 0 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 16 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 83 61% 29 of 56 13 of 16 9 of 11 50 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 13 of 28 46% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 11 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 42 of 60 70% 36 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 33 2 of 2 18 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)

Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.

Half unit parlay with Justin Tafa at plus money
"I've got to go volkov here but I imagine the rest of the community and myself are also going to be rooting for Tai tuivasa to get a one punch knockout walk off I don't see it happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'm gonna pick the dog and tie to evoss and to land a big shot and knock out Alexander volkov here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes (later moved to 31.5) on Prize Picks
"the official pick I think has to be volkov on the basis of superior Striker better volume better grappling better cardio uh man it's heavyweight Paul so I'm gonna take volkov but again as far as parlays go I need …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.

Odds mentioned: Volkov minus 250, Tuivasa plus 210. Levi says he is not putting his money on it.
"As a pure pick I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take volkov uh just like you said more volume more ways to win but it's not a confident pick I'm not putting my money on it and I'm …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.

"I think Alexander volkov is quite safe in this spot I think volkov is levels above title of us"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.

Volkov by KO
"give me volkov uh volkov to win impressively here and I think he does it by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think from a betting perspective it's tired it's it's Stewie vosser past maybe it's just like my heart's in it because I'm a shoe Aficionado as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.

TKO in round 2 via front kick to the body
"I'm gonna go Alexander volkov TKO round two"
KO (punches) R1 0:54 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 2 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 2 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 23 of 44 52% 23 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32 1 of 4 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 23 of 44 52% 23 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32 1 of 4 6 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-210), Tuivasa (+180)

Round 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta will have his work cut out for him in this heavyweight collision, as Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) combine for 26 knockouts in their 30 wins, with no submissions to either’s credit. The triumphant big man here might be the closest of all the 30 competitors this evening to a title shot, and this potential brawl is preceded by a clap of hands and a hug. Pavlovich moves in to the center of the cage, pushing out jabs, and he lifts his leg to avoid a low kick. The Russian walks forward to throw hands, and he stings Tuivasa with a few punches, only for “Bam Bam” to swing right back and hurt Pavlovich. The power of Pavlovich cannot be denied, as he blasts Tuivasa with ferocious punches, tearing Tuivasa’s skin open with the impact of his fists. Tuivasa hit the ground, and springs back up while blood starts pouring out of the left side of his eye, and Pavlovich’s accurate and straight punches find the mark while Tuivasa swings wildly.
Tuivasa wings a left hand, and Pavlovich tags his man twice and drills an uppercut that knocks the Aussie clear off his feet. When Tuivasa hits the mat on his face, Pavlovich drives home a few academic punches to make sure the job is done, and Tuivasa continues to leak crimson fluid all over the mat while Pavlovich beats on him. Miragliotta intervenes when it is clear that Tuivasa is done here and teetering on the edge of consciousness
, and Pavlovich may have just earned the biggest win of his career and placed himself right in top contendership position. This performance unquestionably sends a message to the rest of the heavyweights that this brick-fisted Russian is a force to be reckoned with.

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tai Tuivasa R1 0:54 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa, citing his better leg kicks and chin. He notes both fighters have zero takedowns in the UFC, so it will be a striking match. He thinks Tuivasa's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges heavyweights can end anytime. He won't bet either side but recommends using Monkey Knife Fight's Knockout Kings prop because one of them will get knocked out.

Recommends Knockout Kings prop (both fighters in same pick, one wins by KO/TKO); won't bet moneyline
"I like Ty to do what he does which is come forward throw heavy and then just blast beer out of some dirty ass shoe in the audience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his nine-inch reach advantage, power, and forward pressure. He notes Tuivasa has been knocked out before and Pavlovich has five first-round finishes in the UFC. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Pavlovich lands first.

Pavlovich wins by KO, round 1
"I think pavlovich knocks out to ivassa in the first round... five first round Knockouts in a row and I expect a fifth one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Tuivasa's durability, power, and ability to weather early storms. He notes Pavlovich has never been tested past the first round and questions his cardio. He sees Tuivasa as a live dog with a legitimate shot.

under 5 minutes fight time on PrizePicks
"I think I'm kind of leaning towards tied to ivassa I see his path to losing 100 the counter to that is what do you know against Sergey pavlovich without a super Jack he's got big Power he can bring …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

Daniel Levi leans Pavlovich based on momentum, massive reach advantage (84 inches), and confidence. He acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power and the possibility of an upset, especially if the fight extends past the first round. He is not betting but expects an entertaining stand-up war.

"based on the momentum based on that massive reach and based on the confidence that pavlovich probably has right now I'm going to lean with him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

The host leans towards Pavlovich, believing he has more paths to victory, including potentially using takedowns. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus 170, thinking both fighters will respect each other's power and the fight could go into the second or third round. He is cautious about betting heavy on a heavyweight fight due to volatility.

over 1.5 rounds +170; Pavlovich by decision
"I do believe pavlovich has more paths to Victory here but I just can't get tied up to that minus 195 line considering tuivasa his leg kicks and the power that he possesses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul loves Tuivasa at plus money. He notes Pavlovich's low-level competition and questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and power make him live, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He also mentions the under 5 minutes on PrizePicks.

under 5 minutes fight time on PrizePicks; fight ends in round 1
"give me the dog give me Thai to ivassa at plus 185 all day of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich despite loving Tai Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa took heavy damage against Cyril Gane and is returning too soon, while Pavlovich has devastating power and a huge reach advantage (84 inches vs 75). He predicts Pavlovich will land a big shot and finish Tuivasa in the first round.

Pavlovich by TKO (round 1)
"I'm going Sergey pavlovich and it hurts"
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
KO (punches) R3 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 1 110 of 168 65% 110 of 168 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 1 29 of 89 32% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 41 of 65 63% 41 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ciryl Gane 1 53 of 72 73% 53 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 110 of 168 65% 64 of 110 30 of 40 16 of 18 108 of 166 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 29 of 89 32% 17 of 61 4 of 9 8 of 19 26 of 84 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 16 of 31 51% 5 of 16 3 of 5 8 of 10 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 6 of 26 23% 2 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 11 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 41 of 65 63% 24 of 43 11 of 16 6 of 6 41 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 15 of 40 37% 12 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 35 1 of 3 2 of 2
3 Ciryl Gane 53 of 72 73% 35 of 51 16 of 19 2 of 2 51 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)

Round 1
Depending on how this headliner shakes out, a title shot may loom for one of the victors. While former interim beltholder Gane (10-1, 7-1 UFC) would certainly like another crack at Francis Ngannou, he first has to deal with the surging brawler Tuivasa (14-3, 8-3 UFC), who has won five straight fights by knockout. Gane will need to keep his wits about him, and referee Marc Goddard will too so that he avoids any possible errant blows from the two strikers. The fists are bumped, Gane pats Tuivasa in the face, the cage door is locked, and it’s time for the main event! Tuivasa ignores an early leg kick so that he can try to close the distance and solve the rangy puzzle that is the Frenchman, but he does not throw much. Tuivasa absorbs another low kick, and he fires one back, forcing Gane to awkwardly recoil his own leg. Gane jabs with his foot, and he sits down on a kick to the body with his other leg. Tuivasa stalks Gane down but cannot corner him, although he does get off another leg kick that he turns his hips into. Gane catches “Bam Bam” coming forward with a swatting right hook, disrupting the offense Tuivasa was able to release. Gane comfortably pokes and jabs, and the crowd serenades him with the French National Anthem. Tuivasa starts laughing, and Gane appreciates it and ducks a massive haymaker. A leg kick from the Aussie gets checked, and he swings heavily to close in. Gane blocks most of the strikes, taking one flush, and otherwise keeping his preferred range. The crowd chants loudly for their fighter, and Tuivasa is unable to do much to deflate the crowd. Gane slips a leg kick and releases a body kick. Tuivasa responds, and he just misses an overhand right by a whisker. Gane sticks out a jab and goes after a head kick, and the kick slams into Tuivasa’s guard…he feels it. Tuivasa hand-fights to get in on Gane, and Gane is elusive as he snaps out a front kick. The Aussie lunges with two punches, and Gane skirts out the side and lightly taps his foe’s calf with a kick. The horn sounds to end this sparring match of a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweight headliners touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Tuivasa slaps the thigh with a kick. Gane responds with one to the inner thigh, and he snaps out a jab. As Tuivasa looks to weave forward, Gane splits the guard with another jab, shutting down the offense before it comes. Tuivasa trips his man up as he comes forward, but it is simply that their legs are tangled. “Bam Bam” advances and wings a right hand, and it glances off the dome as Gane moves away from it. Gane front kicks his man and flicks out a jab, with a low but consistent pace that frustrates the brawler. The crowd grows restless as the approach of these two big men, and Tuivasa absorbs their energy by releasing a right hand that slams into Gane’s face. Gane smiles, and the two high-five after the exchange. Gane scores a low kick and a pair of jabs, and Tuivasa follows him along only to walk into a straight left hand. Tuivasa leans back when a high kick is unloaded, and he cuts Gane off with three short left hooks. Gane pushes through the guard with a jab and shoots in for a takedown, but the Aussie is a brick wall and shoves him back. Tuivasa is extremely mad by the exchange, and he winds up with a monster right hand that sends Gane crashing to the mat. Gane crawls to the side, and Tuivasa looks to hop on the side and pound him out. Gane survives and manages to back off, and Tuivasa gives chase and gets clipped with a right hand. Gane targets the body with impunity, kicking the body several times until Tuivasa bends over. Tuivasa is hurt but still dangerous, as swings with all his might, and he manages to crack Gane again. When Gane retreats, he jabs out to the body, and Tuivasa is hurt once more. The crowd is going wild as these two keep hurting one another, and Tuivasa blasts Gane with another overhand right. Gane blinks it out and works the body even more, and Tuivasa signals to the crowd to give it up for them. They do, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
They touch fists to start off the third round, having spent the last minute recovering and retooling their gameplans. Tuivasa actively attacks the lead leg, and Gane strings together a few punches on Tuivasa’s iron chin. Tuivasa chops at the leg, and Gane kicks the body and may have grazed the cup. Tuivasa complains, but Goddard tells them to keep working, and Tuivasa grabs his cup and shakes it. They resume combat, and Gane measures his man with sharp front kicks as Tuivasa takes a deep breath. Gane loads up on a liver kick, and Tuivasa just watches it land. “Bam Bam” ducks in for a punch to the body, and Gane sticks out several jabs. Tuivasa turns to his side as he misses with a kick, and he sprints back to the fence and bounces off it like a professional wrestler. Gane high-fives him, and he then kicks Tuivasa in the face. Tuivasa eats it like Vegemite on toast and immediately absorbs one more, and he wobbles back. He might be playing possum, as he leans back and winds up an enormous right hand that buzzes Gane’s dome. The Frenchman kicks him two more times right in the head, and Tuivasa is stunned but still swinging everything he has in hopes of catching Gane. Gane keeps tagging Tuivasa with his rangy blows, and Tuivasa shakes his head every so often and loads up on what Quinton Jackson would call “bungalows.” Gane largely avoids them, but he still cannot quite evade every one. Tuivasa marches forward, and Gane smacks him in the face with a standing back fist. As Tuivasa slows, Gane feed his man a steady diet of front kicks to the body, and Tuivasa bends over again in pain but is still on his feet. Gane knows that Tuivasa is fading, and he lets loose with a right hook square on the chin that puts Tuivasa on ice skates.
The Aussie is tough but his consciousness is fading, and Gane unloads a bombardment of five vicious punches including an arcing hammerfist that send Tuivasa crashing down to the canvas. Goddard is about to step in, so “Bon Gamin” makes sure he does by hammering Tuivasa with two devastating punches, putting a cap on a sensational performance after a spectacular fight.
The Accor Arena, which might have already set decibel records in the city tonight, shatters those with raucous cheers and applause for its home country fighter. France ends the night at 5-0 against foreign opponents, with each one making a statement, but none more massive than Gane. The French fighter celebrates with his family, who flood the cage in support of the victor. The triumphant Gane only one has target: the title, which currently sits around the waist of former opponent Francis Ngannou. Even though Ngannou is in the building, he does not enter the cage, as he may not want to take away from Gane’s moment. The crowd is in the palm of Gane’s large hand, and the UFC should know once and for all it has a star on its hands. Next week, the UFC is going to try to cash in on a pair of other stars, and we will be here for it with UFC 279. We hope you are too. Vive la France!

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Tai Tuivasa R3 4:23 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.

No prop bets; lines too short (take down -700, significant strike -600)
"cyril gone is absolutely the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.

submission in the fourth round
"i like gone to win i'll say by submission in the fourth round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130); Gane wins in round 4 (+1200) or round 5 (+1700)
"I'm picking gone... I think gone probably finishes them off in either round four or round five."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.

Gane by submission; Tuivasa by KO at +500; fight doesn't go to decision; over 1.5 rounds
"I think he's minus 600 for a reason even if I'm not gonna lay that price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.

Gane by submission (plus 420), Gane by submission round 2
"Give me Cyril Gane by submission second round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.

"Gone is my pick hate minus 600 in literally any heavyweight fight but durability is on point... should be able to just pick Tuivasa apart at range and avoid the big shots."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.

Gane wins by TKO in round 4
"i think he's just gonna pick a tyre win the range game swollen swell up the eye of tyre with a jab bust up his nose with a jab"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
KO (elbow) R2 1:40 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 43 62% 31 of 47 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:48
Derrick Lewis 1 24 of 36 66% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 16 of 24 66% 20 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Derrick Lewis 0 14 of 21 66% 25 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Derrick Lewis 1 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 43 62% 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 21 8 of 12 8 of 10
Derrick Lewis 24 of 36 66% 12 of 22 9 of 9 3 of 5 8 of 14 16 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 16 of 24 66% 14 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 10
Derrick Lewis 14 of 21 66% 3 of 8 9 of 9 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 16 0 of 0
2 Tai Tuivasa 11 of 19 57% 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 10 of 15 66% 9 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
A knockout is almost certainly on the menu in this heavyweight clash between beloved big men weighing a total of 531 pounds – one shy of the limit for two men in a UFC cage. Proud Houston native Lewis (26-8, 1 NC; 17-6 UFC) will look to thrill his home crowd, and he will do against willing brawler Tuivasa (13-3, 7-3 UFC). The betting line for this fight going to decision is a massive +425, and a prop for either fighter winning by knockout is -390. Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to stay ready for as long as this fight goes on, preparing himself to intervene at a moment’s notice. Tuivasa may be grinning, but Lewis is the face of intensity; they still do touch gloves. Lewis claims the center of the cage first, as Tuivasa walks around the edge trying to feint his way in. “Bam Bam” reaches out with jabs to the head and body that are well short of the mark, but he does get off a heavy leg kick as Lewis reaches for it. Lewis just misses a looping right hand as Tuivasa crashes forward to clinch up, and the Aussie starts kneeing Lewis’ thighs while pressing him into the wall. The fans begin to react negatively as Tuivasa holds on to this clinch position, with little else besides fence-mashing going on until Miragliotta rather quickly steps in to separate them. Lewis lets go with a head kick, but Tuivasa blocks it right in time. A Lewis flying knee makes Tuivasa back off, and Tuivasa chops down his lead leg to make him slip when Lewis lands. Lewis’ forward momentum shoves the two into the wire, and Lewis changes levels for a single-leg takedown entry. Tuivasa stands him up and elbows him in the face a few times, and Lewis surprises him with an inside trip that shakes the very foundation of the cage itself when they smash into the ground. Lewis starts unloading with brutal right hands, and Tuivasa is hurt but full of determination to stand back up. When the Aussie stands, he throws everything he has back at Lewis, in an effort to start a slugfest. Lewis protects himself from most of them, lands his own, and gets pushed up to the wall. “The Black Beast” hits a throw and drops Tuivasa back to the mat in a surprising display of grappling prowess, but Tuivasa is not settling to stay down. Tuivasa powers his way back up and knees Lewis in the body, and he holds on to the top of the fencing as he knees Lewis in the gut. The round ends in this tight clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off Round 2, and Tuivasa comes out with a big smile on his face. Lewis absorbs a leg kick and just misses with a huge right hand, and he hobbles off after taking the kick but could be playing possum. Lewis loads up with a few powerful punches, stinging Tuivasa and knocking him back all the way from one side of the cage to the other after salvo of punches. Lewis tries to take him down, and Tuivasa remains upright and just misses a knee to the face. They begin to start brawling, with no defense and all power strikes. Tuivasa walks through a flurry, chomps down on his gumshield, and blasts Lewis in the face with a salvo of powerful punches. Lewis takes the brunt of the shots on the chin, and suddenly he is hurt! Tuivasa gets off a blistering elbow in close range, swinging with all his might with a few more punches to follow. Right in Lewis’ face, Tuivasa smashes “The Black Beast” with an elbow that wrecks Lewis. The Houstonian crumples, his knees giving way as he falls face-first to the ground. Miragliotta takes a second to realize that Lewis is out cold, and he jumps in to stop the fight. What an unbelievable knockout for an instant title contender, one who has won five in a row by knockout, but none bigger than this one. Leaping on the cage to celebrate his work in what has become a victory tradition, Tuivasa pours a beer into a shoe and chugs it. The UFC has a star on its hands here.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Derrick Lewis R2 1:40 via KO (Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tuivasa, believing he is the better striker with leg kicks that can slow down Lewis. He thinks Tuivasa's chin is good enough to absorb one big shot from Lewis. He acknowledges that Lewis is always live for a knockout but expects Tuivasa to chop down the tree with leg kicks.

"i like tai tuivasa to chop down the tree with those leg kicks but if that dude ends up flatlined like any other derrick lewis fight it would not be surprising but tai tuivasa is the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

Big Brady thinks Lewis will win by knockout, as Tuivasa's brawling style plays into Lewis's power. He notes Lewis has been finished by top heavyweights like Gane and JDS, but Tuivasa is not on that level. He expects a first round knockout but admits he can't be too confident in a heavyweight fight. He mentions Lewis's low volume but effective striking.

Lewis by first round knockout
"i'm going to take derek lewis to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Lewis, citing his proven power and resume against top heavyweights. He notes Tuivasa's wins are over lower-level opponents and that he has been rocked before. He expects Tuivasa to come out aggressive but Lewis to land the cleaner shot and finish him, possibly in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds -175
"i think derek lewis gets back on track in his hometown after a bit of a letdown against cyril gone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win, but acknowledges the appeal of Tai Tuivasa as a dog. He notes that Lewis has a history of coming back in fights and that his athleticism is underrated. Levi also mentions that Tuivasa is a more talented kickboxer at range and could land low kicks, but Lewis's momentum and power are key. He says he won't talk anyone off a shot of Tuivasa.

"I'm gonna go with derrick lewis to win this fight but i'm not gonna talk anyone off a shot of tai to ivasa"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

Both fighters have knockout power, but Lewis has the hometown advantage and has shown durability. Tuivasa has leg kicks but Lewis only needs one punch. The fight likely ends in the first round. Lewis by first-round KO is the pick, but it's not a lock due to Tuivasa's own power.

under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't start round 2; Lewis by KO in round 1
"i'm going derrick lewis and i think he gets it done in front of his hometown via first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

Paul expects a wild brawl but leans Lewis due to his experience against top competition and proven power. He notes Tuivasa is still green and has been rocked in fights, while Lewis has fought and beaten elite heavyweights. He thinks Lewis will catch Tuivasa with a more meaningful shot, likely in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds -175
"i think derek lewis gets back on track in his hometown after a bit of a letdown against cyril gone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis by first-round KO, citing his power advantage and durability. He expects a back-and-forth slugfest but believes Lewis will land the cleaner shot.

first round ko
"i'm going to go with derek lewis here over titu ivasa"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"