vs
-549 +600
UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 38
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jack Jenkins
4.48 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.95 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.98 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Herbert Burns
1.86 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
5.17 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
2.94 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Jack Jenkins
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
FanDuel -185
Submission
BetMGM +850
Decision
BetRivers +650
Herbert Burns
Moneyline
DraftKings +600
KO/TKO
BetWay +2200
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetRivers +1800
Jack Jenkins - Fight History
WIN vs Ramon Taveras
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 0 65 of 109 59% 73 of 123 3 of 6 50% 1 0 3:58
Ramon Taveras 0 43 of 113 38% 68 of 142 0 of 4 0% 0 1 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 32 of 56 57% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ramon Taveras 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jack Jenkins 0 29 of 42 69% 29 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Ramon Taveras 0 20 of 58 34% 30 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Jack Jenkins 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 24 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:54
Ramon Taveras 0 7 of 12 58% 22 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 65 of 109 59% 29 of 68 16 of 21 20 of 20 58 of 95 4 of 5 3 of 9
Ramon Taveras 43 of 113 38% 36 of 98 6 of 14 1 of 1 38 of 106 0 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 32 of 56 57% 14 of 33 11 of 16 7 of 7 29 of 52 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ramon Taveras 16 of 43 37% 11 of 34 4 of 8 1 of 1 16 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 29 of 42 69% 12 of 25 5 of 5 12 of 12 28 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ramon Taveras 20 of 58 34% 18 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0 20 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Jenkins 4 of 11 36% 3 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 9
Ramon Taveras 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins despite thinking he is overrated, because he believes Jenkins can win with forward pressure and volume, similar to how Davy Grant beat Taveras. He notes Taveras chases overhands and power, which Jenkins can counter. He attributes the line collapse to Jenkins' ironic mustache, not his skills.

"I personally do think Jack is overrated. So, for me to pick Jack while thinking he's overrated should tell you something. I think he's just getting too much credit for breaking somebody's leg five years ago or 10, whatever the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by decision. He notes Jenkins has more tools, including leg kicks that will target Taveras's lead leg. He also mentions Jenkins can mix in takedowns. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still expects Jenkins to win at home.

"Give me Jack Jenkins and Jack Jenkins by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his devastating leg kicks that will slow Taveras down over time. He notes Taveras is a better boxer but flat-footed and has no takedown attempts in his UFC career, making him vulnerable to Jenkins' kicks and potential wrestling. He also mentions Taveras missed weight in past fights and is traveling to Perth, which could affect his performance.

"I think Jack Jenkins wins. I think he wins. I I like this guy's leg kicks."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Connor also picks Jenkins, agreeing that Taveras is a good matchup for him. He notes that Taveras is an expert at letting things happen to him and has a big head, making him easy to hit. Connor thinks Jenkins's low kicks and counter punching will be effective, and that Taveras's toughness won't be enough to overcome Jenkins's advantages. He cautions that Jenkins's game is thin, but Taveras is not the kind of fighter to expose it.

"Feels like a very good fight for Jenkins, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)

James has not done tape study on this fight and passes on making a pick. He mentions he likes Jack Jenkins as a fighter but does not provide a prediction.

"I'm going to pass on this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host notes Taveras is moving up to 145 lbs after weight issues at 135. He thinks Taveras will struggle against Jenkins' calf kicking and grappling game, keeping Taveras on the defensive and leading to a decision win for Jenkins.

"Diverus being forced to go up to 145 pounds now after multiple issues at 135 pounds. But I think he's going to struggle here against Jack Jenkins who has a great calf kicking game and a good grappling game. And …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The Guru picks Jack Jenkins, citing his ability to break bones with strikes and his kicking game. He notes Taveras is moving up from bantamweight and has been victimized by kicks before. He expects a sustained beating leading to a TKO in round two or three.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Jack Jenkins over Ramon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Zane picks Jenkins confidently, noting that Taveras has trouble with low kicks and has a big head that is easy to punch. He believes Jenkins's crushing low kicks and top game will be too much for Taveras, who is tough but not skilled enough to deter Jenkins. Zane expects Jenkins to look great in this fight, though he acknowledges Jenkins's game is narrow and he struggles against fighters who can control distance.

"Feels like a very good fight for Jenkins, honestly."
LOSS vs Gabriel Santos
Submission R3 2:06 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 1 34 of 48 70% 39 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Gabriel Santos 0 39 of 61 63% 96 of 123 4 of 7 57% 2 0 6:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 1 28 of 36 77% 33 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Gabriel Santos 0 9 of 20 45% 22 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:50
2 Jack Jenkins 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Gabriel Santos 0 24 of 32 75% 58 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
3 Jack Jenkins 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriel Santos 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 34 of 48 70% 22 of 35 5 of 6 7 of 7 13 of 22 5 of 6 16 of 20
Gabriel Santos 39 of 61 63% 26 of 44 6 of 9 7 of 8 23 of 45 3 of 3 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 28 of 36 77% 19 of 26 3 of 4 6 of 6 7 of 10 5 of 6 16 of 20
Gabriel Santos 9 of 20 45% 3 of 12 2 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 24 of 32 75% 19 of 25 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 17 3 of 3 12 of 12
3 Jack Jenkins 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 6 of 9 66% 4 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Santos

Big Brady is a big fan of Gabriel Santos, believing he is much better than his 1-2 UFC record indicates. He notes Santos's well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Santos has a significant grappling advantage over Jack Jenkins, who was taken down and controlled by Jamal Emmers. Brady predicts Santos will win a decision, possibly with a submission.

"I'm going to say Gabriel Santos wins a decision here and what should be a fun fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Santos

Santos is considered the better fighter, slicker with Muay Thai and more aggressive with BJJ. His Muay Thai will allow him to check Jenkins' kicks and counter with straight shots. The fight is expected to go to decision with Santos winning.

decision
"I believe Santos is the better fighter here in terms of being more dangerous I think he's a little bit Slicker with his Muay Thai a little bit more aggressive with his BJJ"
WIN vs Herbert Burns
TKO (retirement) R3 0:48 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 2 73 of 126 57% 98 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 79 30% 45 of 101 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 39 of 66 59% 53 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 53 28% 28 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
2 Jack Jenkins 1 20 of 38 52% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Herbert Burns 0 6 of 23 26% 14 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:45
3 Jack Jenkins 1 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Herbert Burns 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 73 of 126 57% 44 of 95 15 of 15 14 of 16 59 of 99 0 of 1 14 of 26
Herbert Burns 24 of 79 30% 11 of 61 7 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 73 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 39 of 66 59% 24 of 51 11 of 11 4 of 4 39 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 53 28% 8 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 20 of 38 52% 8 of 24 3 of 3 9 of 11 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 12
Herbert Burns 6 of 23 26% 2 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 2
3 Jack Jenkins 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 14
Herbert Burns 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo is confident Jack Jenkins will win, citing his superior striking, takedown defense, and multiple ways to win. He dismisses Herbert Burns as a submission-or-bust fighter with poor offensive wrestling who seems to hate fighting. Angelo expects Jenkins to light Burns up on the feet and suggests parlaying him before the odds get even shorter.

Suggests parlaying Jenkins before odds get crazy
"Jack Jenkins is going to be safe here he's going to light up Herbert Burns and you should probably parlay him before those odds get crazy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by second-round knockout. He notes Herbert Burns is very dangerous in the first five minutes but has poor cardio, heart, and durability, and has been knocked out in the second round in his last three losses. He believes Jenkins can survive the first round, possibly in bad spots, and then finish Burns in the second. He cautions that Jenkins has been finished in all three of his losses, so Burns has a five-minute window to submit him, but overall he expects Jenkins to get the knockout.

knockout in round 2
"give me Jack Jenkins and give me Jack Jenkins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody is confident Jenkins will win but notes the price is blown out. He expects Jenkins to survive the first round and then take over as Burns gasses. He mentions Jenkins' leg kicks and cardio as advantages, but warns that Burns has a puncher's chance early. Cody suggests live betting Jenkins after the first round.

"I will take jenin"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Jenkins to win by late finish, likely in round two or three. He notes that Jenkins is a systematic leg kicker who will chop Burns down, while Burns gasses and has been finished repeatedly. Vreeland suggests playing Jenkins round two as a hedge against the under 1.5 rounds.

round 2 finish
"I think he's going to get a round two finish Herbert's been finished in round two like 10 times in a row or something crazy like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host picks Jenkins, noting his solid striking and mixing of martial arts. He expects Jenkins to avoid Burns' early power and then put a pace on him, finishing him likely by knockout. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds prop as a potential bet, and notes Jenkins' round 2 prop at +550.

Under 1.5 rounds, Jenkins round 2 prop (+550)
"I'm going to go Jenkins I think Jenkins finishes Burns maybe knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul acknowledges Jenkins is not a potent finisher but believes he will outlast Burns, who has terrible cardio. He notes that Burns has been submitted in his last two and that Jenkins has never been knocked out. Paul calls it a cop-out but picks Jenkins, though he is priced out of betting.

"it's Jack Jenkins but at minus 800 I don't I'm not entirely sure what to do with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. He criticizes Burns as a quitter with only one round of cardio, comparing him to Makwan Amirkhani. He praises Jenkins' takedown defense, noting his strong hips and foot positioning. He predicts Burns will have early moments but gas out and get finished in the second or third round, possibly by TKO. He also mentions body kicks on the ground as a potential finish.

Late first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go Jack Jenkins he actually was doing pretty well against the grappling of sheet marisca early in their fight showed some good Australian takedown defense"
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
TKO (arm injury) R2 3:19 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 41 of 68 60% 43 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 38 of 87 43% 87 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 31 of 50 62% 33 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Jenkins 0 23 of 60 38% 38 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 41 of 68 60% 16 of 36 13 of 18 12 of 14 35 of 60 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 38 of 87 43% 14 of 53 11 of 16 13 of 18 23 of 65 14 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 31 of 50 62% 14 of 27 7 of 11 10 of 12 29 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 23 of 60 38% 10 of 41 8 of 11 5 of 8 18 of 52 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 18 55% 2 of 9 6 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 15 of 27 55% 4 of 12 3 of 5 8 of 10 5 of 13 9 of 13 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.

Parlayed with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money
"I think Jack Jenkins leg kicks which are lethal and he has stopped multiple fights with them are going to be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.

"I think Jack Jenkins gets it done and I think Jack Jenkins gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.

Jenkins by decision (+160)
"I think Jenkins pulls away in this fight great fight fun fight I think he gets fight of the night but I think Jack Jenkins is just a little more Superior"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.

Odds mentioned: Jenkins minus 200, Mariscal plus 170.
"I think that Jack Jenkins is just so much more technically sound so much more defensively responsible."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.

small sprinkle on KO prop
"give me Jenkins and Jenkins by decision small sprinkle on a potential KO prop here in case mariscal's chin uh is still as flimsy as I believe it could be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.

"Jenkins will be the pick for I I imagine lean on the wrestling a little bit wear them down make it a little bit uh ugly don't turn it into a slobber knocker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.

"I'm gonna go Jack Jenkins"
WIN vs Jamall Emmers
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 0 57 of 155 36% 76 of 185 1 of 6 16% 0 2 4:17
Jamall Emmers 0 59 of 119 49% 85 of 154 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 21 of 69 30% 21 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jamall Emmers 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Jenkins 0 28 of 71 39% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Jamall Emmers 0 31 of 61 50% 31 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Jack Jenkins 0 8 of 15 53% 26 of 43 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:09
Jamall Emmers 0 8 of 18 44% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 57 of 155 36% 26 of 98 18 of 38 13 of 19 51 of 146 1 of 3 5 of 6
Jamall Emmers 59 of 119 49% 26 of 67 14 of 21 19 of 31 53 of 110 1 of 2 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 21 of 69 30% 6 of 40 10 of 21 5 of 8 20 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamall Emmers 20 of 40 50% 8 of 20 7 of 9 5 of 11 19 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 28 of 71 39% 13 of 44 7 of 16 8 of 11 27 of 70 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jamall Emmers 31 of 61 50% 12 of 32 6 of 11 13 of 18 31 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Jenkins 8 of 15 53% 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 1 4 of 5
Jamall Emmers 8 of 18 44% 6 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Angelo gives a slight lean to Jamall Emmers due to his 100% takedown defense. He acknowledges Jack Jenkins is a real prospect with power and leg kicks, but notes Jenkins has low IQ moments where he grapples when he shouldn't. He expects a decision and suggests the best bet might be Jack Jenkins at +3.5 points (buying a round).

Jack Jenkins +3.5 points (spread)
"I'm gonna do slight lean towards Jamal because of that 100 takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to Emmers' poor fight IQ, citing examples like striking with Giga Chikadze instead of wrestling and getting injured against Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Emmers' talent and well-rounded skills, including a significant reach advantage. He believes Emmers can win if he fights smart, but warns against betting on him at -210. He predicts a decision victory.

"the pick is Jamal Embers but I will not be betting this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, agreeing with Paul. He notes Emmers's poor decisions and inactivity, and thinks Jenkins can win a striking battle. He expects a decision.

"I'll take Jack Jenkins Jack Jenkins by decide it's only plus 240."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Connor picks Jenkins, impressed by his low-kicking and combination punching. He notes that Jenkins creatively sets up low kicks from various angles and uses them to set up hands and body punches. Connor thinks Emmers will struggle with Jenkins' low kicks because Emmers doesn't have a way to block or protect his leg. He also notes that Emmers' boxing is very Bobby Green-like, relying on sliding away and not sitting down on punches, which could make him hard to track but also leaves his leg exposed. Connor believes Jenkins' intuitive scrambling and ground game are also advantages.

"I kind of feel like he's going to struggle with Jack Jenkins. I don't know that it has been tested very much, but I do look at Jamal Emmers at range. And I think that this dude is ripe for …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Daniel Levi picks Jamall Emmers, citing his experience, length, and well-rounded game. He notes Emmers's wrestling and striking, and his ability to mix them. He acknowledges Jenkins's leg kicks and potential but thinks Emmers is ahead at this stage. He is not betting at -210 but picks Emmers.

"I'm gonna still pick emmers um I think he's paid his dues"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The host picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He believes Emmers has the speed and striking advantage, and if he uses his fight IQ, he can stuff takedowns and pick Jenkins apart. He notes Jenkins is a good prospect but thinks this is a step up too far. He would only take Emmers around -150, but thinks he wins.

"I think he's the side here I think he wins this fight and like I said I think he gets it done by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins, citing Emmers's questionable fight IQ and inactivity. He thinks Jenkins can outbox him and that Emmers may not use his wrestling. He notes the plus money is attractive.

Jenkins by decision at plus 240 mentioned.
"I'll take Jack Jenkins he'll love it but yeah it's another dog pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The Guru picks Jamall Emmers, citing his experience against top competition and reach advantage. He feels Jack Jenkins' win over Don Shainis was unimpressive and that Emmers, after shaking off rust, will perform better. He predicts Emmers will keep the fight at range and win a 2-1 decision, with Jenkins having moments inside but too little too late.

Predicts decision win.
"I'm going with Jamal lemmers... I think he's going to secure himself the first two rounds here and win this fight 2-1"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Jenkins. He notes that Jenkins' low-kicking and combination punching are excellent, and he creatively sets up low kicks from various angles. Zane thinks Emmers will struggle with Jenkins' low kicks because Emmers doesn't have a way to block or protect his leg. He also notes that Emmers' boxing is very Bobby Green-like, relying on sliding away and not sitting down on punches, which could make him hard to track but also leaves his leg exposed. Zane believes Jenkins' intuitive scrambling and ground game are also advantages.

"I kind of feel like he's going to struggle with Jack Jenkins. I don't know that it has been tested very much, but I do look at Jamal Emmers at range. And I think that this dude is ripe for …"
WIN vs Don Shainis
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 0 82 of 123 66% 100 of 150 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:00
Don Shainis 0 50 of 102 49% 128 of 187 1 of 3 33% 2 2 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 34 of 59 57% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don Shainis 0 25 of 55 45% 28 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
2 Jack Jenkins 0 23 of 33 69% 25 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Don Shainis 0 15 of 28 53% 58 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:30
3 Jack Jenkins 0 25 of 31 80% 40 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:01
Don Shainis 0 10 of 19 52% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 82 of 123 66% 45 of 81 23 of 26 14 of 16 53 of 90 21 of 24 8 of 9
Don Shainis 50 of 102 49% 26 of 68 17 of 23 7 of 11 29 of 73 14 of 21 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 34 of 59 57% 13 of 35 12 of 13 9 of 11 24 of 49 10 of 10 0 of 0
Don Shainis 25 of 55 45% 9 of 34 11 of 13 5 of 8 16 of 43 9 of 12 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 23 of 33 69% 11 of 19 8 of 10 4 of 4 14 of 21 9 of 12 0 of 0
Don Shainis 15 of 28 53% 10 of 19 3 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 14 4 of 8 5 of 6
3 Jack Jenkins 25 of 31 80% 21 of 27 3 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 20 2 of 2 8 of 9
Don Shainis 10 of 19 52% 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, describing him as a powerful striker with multiple tools, though he notes Jenkins can be stiff and doesn't flow smoothly between striking and grappling. He believes Jenkins' power and leg kicks will be too much for Don Shainis, who is tough but limited. He considers it a safe bet but wants to see Jenkins mix his skills more.

"Jack's gonna be the pick it's probably a pretty safe bet as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady thinks Jenkins is a solid fighter with good striking and wrestling. He expects Shainis to come out aggressively but fade, and Jenkins to take over. He predicts a decision win for Jenkins, noting Shainis's low level of competition.

"I'll say Jenkins by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody is confident Jenkins wins, citing his pressure, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Shainis was submitted quickly by Sadiq Yusuff and doesn't have the skills to hang. He thinks Jenkins will wear him down with leg kicks and takedowns, likely winning inside the distance or by decision. He took Jenkins over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Jenkins over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think Jack Jenkins wins likely inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Connor picks Jenkins, agreeing that Shainis is easily swept and has no control in grappling. He notes that Shainis is gritty but everything is on the razor's edge, and that Jenkins' wrestling, though flawed, will be enough to take Shainis down and control him.

"Yeah, I am definitely picking Jack Jenkins."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Jenkins is the more complete fighter with superior striking and grappling. Shainis was finished quickly by Sadiq Yusuf in his UFC debut. Jenkins' top pressure and ground-and-pound will be dominant. Shainis may have some success with calf kicks, but Jenkins will take him down and control the fight. Jenkins' cardio allows him to maintain pressure for 15 minutes. He should win a dominant decision, though a finish is possible.

"I feel very damn good about Jack in the spot you know I think he's more than deserving of the chalky price that he's at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins, noting Shainis's poor UFC debut and lack of a well-rounded game. He thinks Jenkins' leg kicks and wrestling will be too much. He mentions Jenkins is not a finisher but should control the fight.

"Jack Jenkins seems like again I think he's like 29 maybe 30 years old... he's talented he's got skills"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Don Shainis, criticizing Shainis's record and noting his loss to Jay Ellis as a sign of low level. He believes Jenkins is fundamentally sound and patient, and will finish Shainis in the third round by TKO, matching his contender series performance.

third round TKO
"I'm going with Jack Jenkins we move on up the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Zane picks Jenkins, describing him as a ground-and-pound specialist with a sticky scrambling style. He notes that Jenkins has a limited game but that Shainis loves getting out-grappled and has poor control. Zane expects Jenkins to get to his spots and flatten Shainis on the ground, despite Jenkins' terrible shot and lack of striking.

"I am definitely picking Jack Jenkins. Yeah. It's going to be weird and ugly and dysfunctional. But once he gets to his spots, he is going to flatten Don Janis on the ground."
Herbert Burns - Fight History
LOSS vs Jack Jenkins
TKO (retirement) R3 0:48 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 2 73 of 126 57% 98 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 79 30% 45 of 101 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 39 of 66 59% 53 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 53 28% 28 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
2 Jack Jenkins 1 20 of 38 52% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Herbert Burns 0 6 of 23 26% 14 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:45
3 Jack Jenkins 1 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Herbert Burns 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 73 of 126 57% 44 of 95 15 of 15 14 of 16 59 of 99 0 of 1 14 of 26
Herbert Burns 24 of 79 30% 11 of 61 7 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 73 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 39 of 66 59% 24 of 51 11 of 11 4 of 4 39 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 53 28% 8 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 20 of 38 52% 8 of 24 3 of 3 9 of 11 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 12
Herbert Burns 6 of 23 26% 2 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 2
3 Jack Jenkins 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 14
Herbert Burns 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo is confident Jack Jenkins will win, citing his superior striking, takedown defense, and multiple ways to win. He dismisses Herbert Burns as a submission-or-bust fighter with poor offensive wrestling who seems to hate fighting. Angelo expects Jenkins to light Burns up on the feet and suggests parlaying him before the odds get even shorter.

Suggests parlaying Jenkins before odds get crazy
"Jack Jenkins is going to be safe here he's going to light up Herbert Burns and you should probably parlay him before those odds get crazy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by second-round knockout. He notes Herbert Burns is very dangerous in the first five minutes but has poor cardio, heart, and durability, and has been knocked out in the second round in his last three losses. He believes Jenkins can survive the first round, possibly in bad spots, and then finish Burns in the second. He cautions that Jenkins has been finished in all three of his losses, so Burns has a five-minute window to submit him, but overall he expects Jenkins to get the knockout.

knockout in round 2
"give me Jack Jenkins and give me Jack Jenkins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody is confident Jenkins will win but notes the price is blown out. He expects Jenkins to survive the first round and then take over as Burns gasses. He mentions Jenkins' leg kicks and cardio as advantages, but warns that Burns has a puncher's chance early. Cody suggests live betting Jenkins after the first round.

"I will take jenin"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Jenkins to win by late finish, likely in round two or three. He notes that Jenkins is a systematic leg kicker who will chop Burns down, while Burns gasses and has been finished repeatedly. Vreeland suggests playing Jenkins round two as a hedge against the under 1.5 rounds.

round 2 finish
"I think he's going to get a round two finish Herbert's been finished in round two like 10 times in a row or something crazy like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host picks Jenkins, noting his solid striking and mixing of martial arts. He expects Jenkins to avoid Burns' early power and then put a pace on him, finishing him likely by knockout. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds prop as a potential bet, and notes Jenkins' round 2 prop at +550.

Under 1.5 rounds, Jenkins round 2 prop (+550)
"I'm going to go Jenkins I think Jenkins finishes Burns maybe knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul acknowledges Jenkins is not a potent finisher but believes he will outlast Burns, who has terrible cardio. He notes that Burns has been submitted in his last two and that Jenkins has never been knocked out. Paul calls it a cop-out but picks Jenkins, though he is priced out of betting.

"it's Jack Jenkins but at minus 800 I don't I'm not entirely sure what to do with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. He criticizes Burns as a quitter with only one round of cardio, comparing him to Makwan Amirkhani. He praises Jenkins' takedown defense, noting his strong hips and foot positioning. He predicts Burns will have early moments but gas out and get finished in the second or third round, possibly by TKO. He also mentions body kicks on the ground as a potential finish.

Late first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go Jack Jenkins he actually was doing pretty well against the grappling of sheet marisca early in their fight showed some good Australian takedown defense"
LOSS vs Julio Arce
TKO (punches) R2 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 2 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 57 26% 20 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Herbert Burns 0 11 of 37 29% 16 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Julio Arce 2 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Herbert Burns 0 4 of 20 20% 4 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 29 of 79 36% 19 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 2 20 of 68 9 of 11 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 57 26% 9 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 10 of 38 26% 5 of 31 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 2 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 19 of 41 46% 14 of 34 4 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 31 8 of 10 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 4 of 20 20% 2 of 16 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

"Julio rce should win this fight if Julio wasn't coming off his own very long layoff I actually would consider him for the safety parlay but at minus 550 with a full year away I'm just going to enjoy whatever …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

"I can never bet Herbert Birds just can't do it but I will admit at minus 400"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

"the pick is Julio but this is a doger pass situation at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Arce round 3
"I'm going to go RSA RSA round three give him a little time to really get into his Groove and then from there get burns out of there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

"I can see why Julio Arch would be the favorite but at minus 400 is there any meat on the bone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

late second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Julio late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
TKO (retirement) R2 1:50 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 0 28 of 36 77% 81 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:26
Herbert Burns 0 10 of 12 83% 18 of 25 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 24 of 30 80% 65 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:01
Herbert Burns 0 10 of 12 83% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:32
2 Bill Algeo 0 4 of 6 66% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Herbert Burns 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 28 of 36 77% 21 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 24 of 30
Herbert Burns 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 24 of 30 80% 19 of 25 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 26
Herbert Burns 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 8
2 Bill Algeo 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Herbert Burns 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Angelo picks Bill Algeo confidently, citing Algeo's pressure, wrestling defense, and BJJ black belt to neutralize Burns' grappling. He notes Burns' two-year layoff and Algeo's impressive win over Joe Anderson Brito. He has a moneyline bet on Algeo at -160.

moneyline bet at -160
"algio's the pick i'm glad the ufc was able to keep these guys on the card and i do have a money line bet on bill algio and i got that at minus 160."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an elite get-up game and a black belt in BJJ, making him hard to hold down. He thinks Burns's cardio will fade after the first round, allowing Algeo to take over on the feet. He mentions a late finish is possible if Burns gasses.

"i'm going to go with bill algier to win by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Cody picks Algeo but dislikes the -205 price. He argues that Burns has a terrible gas tank and will fade after the first round, while Algeo has high output and good submission defense. He expects Algeo to survive early takedowns and then overwhelm Burns in later rounds.

Herbert Burns over 1.5 takedowns
"bill jo's a minus 205 price tag we're going to pick them but we don't like it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Levi does not make a clear pick, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Algeo's takedown defense issues and Burns's submission threat, but also Burns's cardio and weight cut concerns. He sees Algeo winning the later rounds if he survives, but the -200 price on Algeo is too high for his liking.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i definitely think algio wins the third round i definitely think herbert wins the first round possibly gets a finish who's going to win that second round so i see this as a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Paul also picks Algeo but is not confident, noting that Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Burns is physically strong. He believes Burns will take Algeo down early, but Algeo's BJJ black belt and cardio should allow him to survive and win later rounds. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round.

Herbert Burns over 1.5 takedowns
"i'll lean towards bill ljo but yeah i'm not touching the minus 205"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns, noting Burns' tendency to fade after the second round and Algeo's durability. He mentions Algeo's solid chin and ability to take big shots, as seen in fights against Joe Anderson Brito and Spike Carlyle. He predicts Algeo will survive early rounds and dominate later, winning by decision (29-28 or 29-27).

predicts decision win
"i'm going to call her bill aljo decision win 29-28 winning the end of the second round hard and winning the round because of it and then dominating the third round"
LOSS vs Daniel Pineda
TKO (elbows) R2 4:37 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 0 10 of 22 45% 35 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Herbert Burns 0 57 of 75 76% 173 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 1 6:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 0 4 of 13 30% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 40 60% 87 of 111 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
2 Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 9 66% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:27
Herbert Burns 0 33 of 35 94% 86 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 10 of 22 45% 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 5
Herbert Burns 57 of 75 76% 50 of 65 4 of 7 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 4 of 13 30% 1 of 7 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1
Herbert Burns 24 of 40 60% 19 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 29
2 Daniel Pineda 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Herbert Burns 33 of 35 94% 31 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 32
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Big Brady is impressed with Herbert Burns' improvements and superior grappling. He expects Burns to submit Pineda in the first round, noting Pineda has been submitted five times. He thinks the fight won't go to decision.

first round submission, under on total rounds
"give me herbert burns first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel Levi picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pineda has never been to a decision (0-6 in decisions) and has been submitted six times. He believes Pineda's scrambling style is a bad matchup against Burns' elite jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Pineda's recent wins were overturned due to PEDs, and he may be deflated under USADA testing. He cites Burns' performance against Dunham as evidence of his submission prowess.

Burns by first-round submission; fight doesn't go the distance (-390); Pineda's PED history is a concern
"i'm going herbert burns here via first round submission again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda is a live dog with strong wrestling and top pressure; he has not been submitted since 2010 and has the experience to survive Burns' early submission threats. Burns' recent finishes are against over-the-hill competition, while Pineda is still in his prime. The line is too wide; Pineda should be closer to +120. He will play it safe, rack up rounds, and win a decision.

Pineda wins by decision (+680)
"Pineda should not be a plus 240 or plus 250 underdog... I think he's a definitely a live dog here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns by submission in the first round, calling it the surest win on the card. He highlights Burns' knockout of Nate Landwehr with a knee up the middle as evidence of his finishing ability, and dismisses Pineda as a past-prime cheater.

submission in the first round
"i'm going with herbert burns i think he gets it done by submission in the first round"
WIN vs Evan Dunham
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:20 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Herbert Burns 0 3 of 6 50% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Evan Dunham 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Herbert Burns 0 3 of 6 50% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Evan Dunham 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Herbert Burns 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
Evan Dunham 5 of 10 50% 4 of 6 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Herbert Burns 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
Evan Dunham 5 of 10 50% 4 of 6 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Big Brady picks Herbert Burns but is hesitant due to Evan Dunham's layoff and age. He notes Dunham has good striking and BJJ, but the two-year layoff and recent losses make it hard to pick him. He expects a close fight with Burns winning by decision, possibly hurting Dunham to the body.

Burns by decision; Dunham at +190 has value but hard to trust
"there's no way I can pick haven't done him you know if this was an Evan Dunn was prime probably takes Dunham all day here but just with you know coming off of a tear lay off just getting 30 …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel believes Burns has caught up to where he can beat a veteran like Dunham. He highlights Burns' wrestling entries, ten-year black belt in jiu-jitsu, and developing power in his striking. He notes Dunham retired for a reason and has shown vulnerability to body shots. He predicts Burns will finish Dunham, possibly by submission or body shots.

finish
"I think Saturday night he's gonna finish Evan Dunham"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham is a high-level jiu-jitsu player with great takedown defense and refined striking. He should be able to keep the fight on the feet and pick apart Herbert Burns, who is wild and chaotic. Dunham's hands have looked good, and he can put together combinations ending with kicks. Even if the fight goes to the ground, Dunham is safe due to his own jiu-jitsu. The only concern is the layoff, but at plus money he is a steal.

Evan Dunham by decision; bet 1-1.5 units
"plus 190 plus 200 for evan dunham is is a steal in my opinion if i get that plus 200 um on one of my sites i'm definitely going to pull the trigger probably one to 1.5 units"
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
KO (knee) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Herbert Burns 1 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Nate Landwehr 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Herbert Burns 1 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Nate Landwehr 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Herbert Burns 7 of 17 41% 2 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 2
Nate Landwehr 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Herbert Burns 7 of 17 41% 2 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 2
Nate Landwehr 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission, citing his significant advantage on the mat as a BJJ black belt. He notes that Landwehr has been taken down and dropped multiple times in his fights and may not survive Burns' submission attempts. He believes Burns will take him down and finish quickly.

first round submission
"I'm gonna go with herbart burns via first round submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns based on his denser record of better names and wins, including a notable win over Timothy in ONE FC. He views Burns as a big featherweight to look out for in his debut, while noting Nate Landwehr's record lacks recognizable names.

"I'm gonna go with the Herbert burns I think he has a bit more of a dense record of better names and wins"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo is confident Jack Jenkins will win, citing his superior striking, takedown defense, and multiple ways to win. He dismisses Herbert Burns as a submission-or-bust fighter with poor offensive wrestling who seems to hate fighting. Angelo expects Jenkins to light Burns up on the feet and suggests parlaying him before the odds get even shorter.

Suggests parlaying Jenkins before odds get crazy
"Jack Jenkins is going to be safe here he's going to light up Herbert Burns and you should probably parlay him before those odds get crazy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by second-round knockout. He notes Herbert Burns is very dangerous in the first five minutes but has poor cardio, heart, and durability, and has been knocked out in the second round in his last three losses. He believes Jenkins can survive the first round, possibly in bad spots, and then finish Burns in the second. He cautions that Jenkins has been finished in all three of his losses, so Burns has a five-minute window to submit him, but overall he expects Jenkins to get the knockout.

knockout in round 2
"give me Jack Jenkins and give me Jack Jenkins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody is confident Jenkins will win but notes the price is blown out. He expects Jenkins to survive the first round and then take over as Burns gasses. He mentions Jenkins' leg kicks and cardio as advantages, but warns that Burns has a puncher's chance early. Cody suggests live betting Jenkins after the first round.

"I will take jenin"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Jenkins to win by late finish, likely in round two or three. He notes that Jenkins is a systematic leg kicker who will chop Burns down, while Burns gasses and has been finished repeatedly. Vreeland suggests playing Jenkins round two as a hedge against the under 1.5 rounds.

round 2 finish
"I think he's going to get a round two finish Herbert's been finished in round two like 10 times in a row or something crazy like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host picks Jenkins, noting his solid striking and mixing of martial arts. He expects Jenkins to avoid Burns' early power and then put a pace on him, finishing him likely by knockout. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds prop as a potential bet, and notes Jenkins' round 2 prop at +550.

Under 1.5 rounds, Jenkins round 2 prop (+550)
"I'm going to go Jenkins I think Jenkins finishes Burns maybe knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul acknowledges Jenkins is not a potent finisher but believes he will outlast Burns, who has terrible cardio. He notes that Burns has been submitted in his last two and that Jenkins has never been knocked out. Paul calls it a cop-out but picks Jenkins, though he is priced out of betting.

"it's Jack Jenkins but at minus 800 I don't I'm not entirely sure what to do with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. He criticizes Burns as a quitter with only one round of cardio, comparing him to Makwan Amirkhani. He praises Jenkins' takedown defense, noting his strong hips and foot positioning. He predicts Burns will have early moments but gas out and get finished in the second or third round, possibly by TKO. He also mentions body kicks on the ground as a potential finish.

Late first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go Jack Jenkins he actually was doing pretty well against the grappling of sheet marisca early in their fight showed some good Australian takedown defense"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 11 months, 1 week ago

Poor Burns +600, Jenkins nice leg kicks. Kicks set up the hands. Burns gets the take down end of rd1