Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.

Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.

Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.

The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.

Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.

Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.

The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.

Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.

Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.

Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.

The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.

Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.

Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.

Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.

The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.

Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.

Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.

Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.

Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.

I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.

Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.

Angelo picks Geoff Neal to win the main event, rounding out his lineup. He expresses high confidence, stating 'I'm very confident and Jeff Neal get the job done.' No specific reasoning is given beyond confidence.

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal over Stephen Thompson, citing Neal's youth (7 years younger), higher volume, and ability to close distance in the smaller cage. He notes Thompson's low volume in past fights and his history of being dropped (four times in UFC). Brady predicts Neal will knock out Thompson in the second round, emphasizing Neal's power and speed advantage.

The host believes Wonderboy's karate stance, in-and-out movement, and counter-striking will give Geoff Neal problems. He notes Neal has never faced a striker of Thompson's caliber and may struggle with the range and five-round pace. The host predicts a late finish (round 4 or 5) as Neal's gas tank fades.