UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen · Aug 07, 2010 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Clay Guida
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
3.0 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
3.48 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Clay Guida - Fight History
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.

"Chase Hooper absolutely smokes here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.

Hooper inside the distance
"Chase Hooper inside the distance... whether it be submission or TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.

"This is just a layup for chase. Hooper. Yeah, it should be right really should be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.

by submission
"I think he's going to come out here and finish Klay Guida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.

submission within first round
"I expect Hooper to submit quido within the first five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.

Hooper by submission (small bet)
"Chase Hooper by submission is somewhat playable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.

Chase Hooper wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm going with Chase Hooper um getting this one done against Klay Guida"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.

"Jay super is gonna beat him using modern technology."
LOSS vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 63 of 252 25% 63 of 252 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 141 of 287 49% 143 of 289 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 23 of 92 25% 23 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 34 of 89 38% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 88 23% 21 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 65 of 110 59% 65 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 19 of 72 26% 19 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 42 of 88 47% 44 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 63 of 252 25% 49 of 227 4 of 12 10 of 13 63 of 252 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 141 of 287 49% 130 of 269 5 of 12 6 of 6 138 of 284 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 23 of 92 25% 16 of 82 2 of 4 5 of 6 23 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 34 of 89 38% 29 of 81 1 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 21 of 88 23% 17 of 80 1 of 4 3 of 4 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 65 of 110 59% 63 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0 62 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 19 of 72 26% 16 of 65 1 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 42 of 88 47% 38 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 2 42 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

"i like claudio playlist to ride out a decision win and he's going to do so with the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Win by submission, first round submission
"I'm actually going to take uh poyus here to win... I'm going to take him to win by submission at some point... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

Live betting opportunity after round 1
"the official pick will ever so slightly be with uh the carpenter clay guido"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Included in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault. Also bet on over 2.5 rounds in the totals parlay.
"i'm going clay guido 1.07 units at -107 so pretty much just to win one unit there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

Clay by decision; live betting
"clay clay by decision could be uh good looks and clay in the live market could even could even be better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

third round finish possible
"i am going to go have clay guida here it is a shock to me it is an absolute shock to me that seventy percent of topology are picking claudio poelas here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 58 of 126 46% 70 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 49 of 89 55% 65 of 107 3 of 7 42% 1 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 31 of 66 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Michael Johnson 0 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Clay Guida 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Michael Johnson 0 13 of 24 54% 21 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Clay Guida 0 13 of 33 39% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Michael Johnson 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 58 of 126 46% 52 of 113 5 of 12 1 of 1 47 of 115 6 of 6 5 of 5
Michael Johnson 49 of 89 55% 31 of 71 12 of 12 6 of 6 32 of 72 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 31 of 66 46% 26 of 55 4 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 62 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 29 of 44 65% 21 of 36 5 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 14 of 27 51% 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Michael Johnson 13 of 24 54% 4 of 15 6 of 6 3 of 3 5 of 16 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Clay Guida 13 of 33 39% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 3
Michael Johnson 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

betting advice: leave off parlays
"You've got to go with Johnson here, I think he's one of the least trustworthy fighters I've ever seen... I'm gonna say Johnson wins by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

"i gotta go with michael johnson to get it done um hopefully he does uh don't don't [ __ ] this one up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

Guida by decision; if Guida hits +200 it might be worth a play
"i'm picking clay gordy here i think he wins by decision i think we just see him over and over again just just grind on michael johnson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

first or second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with michael johnson here getting it done he didn't take any damage in his last bout"
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 72 of 141 51% 138 of 221 8 of 11 72% 0 0 12:01
Rafael dos Anjos 0 66 of 136 48% 94 of 170 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:30
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 41 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:20
2 Vicente Luque 0 11 of 26 42% 32 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 22 45% 14 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
4 Vicente Luque 0 10 of 18 55% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 15 60% 20 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
5 Vicente Luque 0 17 of 26 65% 33 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Rafael dos Anjos 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 72 of 141 51% 48 of 115 17 of 19 7 of 7 60 of 127 8 of 8 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 66 of 136 48% 42 of 108 19 of 23 5 of 5 38 of 105 26 of 27 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 16 of 32 50% 9 of 24 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 28 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 11 of 26 42% 7 of 22 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 22 45% 4 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Vicente Luque 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Vicente Luque 17 of 26 65% 14 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 26 5 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Already bet moneyline at -125
"I have a money line on Rafael dos anos at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

third round knockout
"I'll say Vicente Luce uh touches the chin of RDA at some point I'll say third round knockout for Vicente Luce but again a very very sketchy fight overall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

"I gotta go with Vincente Luca and the plus money and again I think that kill Cliff FC will have him ready and he'll be working with Gilbert Burns"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

James mentions Luque's brain surgery as a concern, but no specific prop bets or odds are stated.
"I'm on RDA here... I think that on the feet it's fairly close... RDA has the grappling to lean on when things get tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

dos Anjos by decision
"I like those sanyos throughout this fight I think he does good enough work over 25 minutes to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

"ever so slightly I'm gonna lean to Javier De Los Angeles who I think has the better cardio over the course of five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.

Finish in round three by D'Arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Vicente UK getting a finish maybe drops RDA in round three and dash choke finishes him"
Submission (neck crank) R2 3:20 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 29 48% 61 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 20 of 25 80% 36 of 41 4 of 6 66% 2 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 19 47% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bryan Barberena 0 16 of 20 80% 30 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 5 of 10 50% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 7 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 4 of 6 4 of 5 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 20 of 25 80% 3 of 8 17 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 19 47% 1 of 9 4 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryan Barberena 16 of 20 80% 2 of 6 14 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 12
2 Rafael dos Anjos 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

"RDA is going to be the pick I trust him to Grapple early I trust him to Grapple often and I think he's just gonna grind out another RDA style win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

RDA wins by decision
"this is RDA all day... horrible horrible terrible magic for barbarian... RDA should win this fight really however he wants"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"Rafael dosano's top taken material I agree with you and your assessment of it I think he wins this pretty handily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

RDA by decision; pass on betting due to price
"I'll pick our DIA to come out here and you know land some takedowns and win this decision but you know because of the price I'm out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

dos Anjos by decision; parlay piece
"I think dos Anjos you know I'd call him a lock of the night essentially but you would never want to bet a minus 540 straight up like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

RDA inside the distance at +175; over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"I feel like this is a should be pretty dominant uh on the side of RDA who is still fighting some of the best fights of his career currently and uh Bam Bam gets hit a ton rarely ever finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.

dos Anjos by decision (30-27)
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos anjos here over Brian barbarina"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)

Round 1
The battle for Rafael supremacy comes to a head in this main event, in the only fight tonight containing two ranked competitors. Former lightweight king dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) hopes to push towards another run at the title, but he will have to get through “Ataman” Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) to get there. This intriguing clash between veteran and upstart, grappler and striker, and old lion vs. young thundercat will be joined by referee Mark Smith. When the cage door closes, the Rafaels touch gloves ahead of their 25-minute tilt -- if needed – and they are ready to finally get after it. Fiziev strikes first with a sharp body kick, and dos Anjos looks to cut him off and he tosses out a low kick. Fiziev answers with another body kick, and he does a dodge reminiscent of the film “The Matrix” as he leans back from a high kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left hand that catches “Ataman” on the chin, and he ducks a looping left to pop Fiziev with a punch of his own. The Brazilian charges in to press Fiziev against the cage, and he looks for a body lock to slow Fiziev down and starts spamming knees to the thigh. Fiziev keeps his balance when dos Anjos looks for a level change, and dos Anjos comfortable crushes Fiziev against the wire. The full body weight of the former champ is pressed against Fiziev, who finds himself pinned and unable to get any offense off from up close. Fiziev quickly turns to get out, and he steps in with a knee and a right hand as they split. Fiziev delivers two kicks to the body, and dos Anjos replies with one. Fiziev answers with another, and he kicks high and jumps in the air with a knee. Two punches to the body lead to one to the head from the Tiger Muay Thai fighter, and he just misses with a whipping head kick. Dos Anjos thumps a leg kick low and keeps his guard high and tight to block incoming fire until he can shoot for a double. Fiziev’s takedown defense holds up on the attempt, and he absorbs a few knees and an elbow before spinning out. Fiziev steps in with an elbow, and he catches dos Anjos with a pair of right hands. Fiziev sneaks in a left hand that shakes dos Anjos up, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights clap hands to start off the second frame, and they meet in the center of the Octagon. Fiziev looses a head kick that misses the mark, and dos Anjos pounds him in the torso with a kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left, and he takes a body shot on the way in. Fiziev catches a second loud body kick, and he clinches up but separates when nothing comes of it. The Brazilian loads up on a left hand, and Fiziev pushes him off and jams his thumb in dos Anjos’ right eye. Dos Anjos takes 30 seconds to blink it out, and when they resume, Fiziev kicks high quickly. Dos Anjos marches him down and catches him with a left hook, and he dives forward for a single. Fiziev spins around, and dos Anjos grabs hold of his back with his hands clasped. Fiziev turns back around to stop it, and he pushes off to split and get back the center of the cage. Dos Anjos keeps light on his feet and strides forward with a straight left hand, and he steps on Fiziev’s foot to hold him in that position. Fiziev once more uses the elastic that is his spine to bend backwards and dodge a head kick, and he counters with an uppercut and a left hook. Fiziev pushes out a jab and takes one clean one back, and dos Anjos kicks him in the ribs. Dos Anjos hunts for a takedown, and Fiziev deftly reverses him and hip tosses dos Anjos to his knees. Fiziev gets up first, and he pushes dos Anjos back to the wire, but cannot grind him there. “Ataman” wings an uppercut, and dos Anjos steps in to clinch in the middle of the Octagon. With a body lock, dos Anjos attempts to take Fiziev down, but once more, he is stopped in his tracks from doing so. Dos Anjos scores a knee on the break, and he pokes at Fiziev with an uppercut on his way back. Dos Anjos reaches him with a right, and Fiziev responds with a powerful one that stuns dos Anjos momentarily. The ex-champ gathers his thoughts and kicks low, and he reaches out with a short right hook. Fiziev kicks him in the body and gets clipped with a long left hand, and the bell rings to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 3
Between rounds, dos Anjos is concerned about a cut below his right elbow. His corner tells him to forget about it, and there is a split on his forearm from blocking a kick from the previous round. The round opens with a few punches from Fiziev, and dos Anjos darts forward in pursuit of a double-leg takedown. Fiziev posts off his arm to keep himself upright, and dos Anjos doggedly pursues it to ground Fiziev. The Brazilian kicks Fiziev’s foot out to get the takedown he was seeking, and Fiziev climbs right back up without concern. As dos Anjos hangs on in the clinch, Fiziev looks at the video screen to find a way out. He does this as dos Anjos goes after a single, yanking his leg free and gaining some separation to work several body kicks. After absorbing a few more blows, dos Anjos darts in with a double, and he pushes Fiziev back but is nowhere close to taking him down. Smith tells them to work as they just hang on in the clinch, and dos Anjos blasts a knee to the liver as Fiziev splits off. The lightweights trade low kicks, and Fiziev wings a short left hook that gets dos Anjos’ attention. A straight right hand from Fiziev makes dos Anjos blink it out, and Fiziev is the one to initiate a clinch, pushing the former champ up against the chain-link fencing. Dos Anjos turns the corner to break apart, and he connects with a chopping leg kick only to eat a jump knee in the process. Dos Anjos tries to keep his head movement to evade multiple straight punches aimed at his head, and the two men trade one after the other in the middle of the cage. The round ends as Fiziev connects with a right.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 4
Ever the veteran, dos Anjos stays a little longer on his stool between rounds, prompting Smith to hurry his corner out and get him back so that they can fight. Fiziev starts off the round with several quick kicks, and dos Anjos plods forward and the two bang heads together. The Brazilian plows forward to go after a takedown, and as dos Anjos does not get it, Smith tells him to work. Fiziev gets the break he seeks, and he splits the guard with a left hand. “Ataman” chains four punches together in a combination, and dos Anjos level changes to push in for a takedown. Fiziev spins him around and jams the ex-champion into the fence, and the position stalls until Fiziev steps back. Dos Anjos nails Fiziev with a flying knee and a few punches, and he attempts to use this momentum to take the fight down, but Fiziev is quick to stop him. Dos Anjos grabs the gloves to break out of this position, only to get warned for his attempt. They break up, and dos Anjos pops Fiziev with a left. The Brazilian snatches up a leg for a single, and Fiziev hops back and keeps his balance. Dos Anjos meets him in the center of the cage to throw hands, and dos Anjos steps in with a back-elbow. Fiziev fights for a sweep takedown, and dos Anjos keeps his feet beneath him and punches his way into a takedown effort. Tired of struggling to get the takedown, “RDA” opts to lift Fiziev clear off the ground and slam him down to the mat. Dos Anjos gloms on to Fiziev while not doing anything from top position, prompting Smith to clap his hands and tell dos Anjos to work. Dos Anjos stays squeezed with his shoulder to the chest of his opponent, and Fiziev powers up with one second to spare. They both land a single punch as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos

Round 5
Smith tells dos Anjos to stay busy in his positions between rounds, and the final round kicks off with a glove touch. The Brazilian kicks low and Fiziev kicks high, and dos Anjos pushes out with a straight left hand.
Fiziev jumps in with a knee, and when that gets blocked, he releases a left hook that totally demolishes dos Anjos. The former champion falls crashing to the mat, and Fiziev leaps over and hammers him with two consciousness-depriving punches before Smith steps in to call a halt to this contest.
Dos Anjos sits up to protest the stoppage, but there is nothing he can do, as the fight is over. Fiziev runs off to celebrate, earning easily the biggest win of his career and answering several questions that loomed about his talents. “Now we know who is the greatest Rafael in the UFC,” Fiziev shouts in his post-fight interview. He then calls for tennis star Rafael Nadal to determine the ultimate Rafael supremacy. Fiziev doubles down on the callout, boldly claiming that he can beat Nadal in his own sport. It is exceptionally unlikely this will come to fruition, but he did punch his ticket to a huge fight at 155 pounds next. No matter who Fiziev faces next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Rafael dos Anjos R5 0:18 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert pick date unknown

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 1 149 of 286 52% 179 of 318 5 of 15 33% 0 0 13:22
Renato Moicano 0 88 of 172 51% 99 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 34 64% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:12
Renato Moicano 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 27 of 47 57% 32 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:44
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 1 40 of 84 47% 52 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:05
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 42 52% 27 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Renato Moicano 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 38 of 79 48% 38 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Renato Moicano 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 149 of 286 52% 119 of 255 23 of 24 7 of 7 84 of 198 7 of 8 58 of 80
Renato Moicano 88 of 172 51% 77 of 158 8 of 11 3 of 3 81 of 164 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 34 64% 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 17 3 of 3 13 of 14
Renato Moicano 10 of 23 43% 6 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 27 of 47 57% 19 of 39 7 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
Renato Moicano 15 of 29 51% 12 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 40 of 84 47% 34 of 77 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 45 0 of 1 23 of 38
Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 21
Renato Moicano 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Rafael dos Anjos 38 of 79 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 3 of 3 37 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 36 of 73 49% 33 of 67 3 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown

Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.

considering over on rounds, plus 5.5 bet on RDA
"my brain is saying i need to go with fiz i have but my heart is saying my gut is saying that rda is going to win i've got to follow the brain"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.

"i think uh i think rafael de san jose is the side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Renato Moicano

Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.

"i actually will take henato mykano to come out here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.

RDA wins in round 4 (TKO), live betting opportunity on RDA if Moicano has early success
"i'm gonna call a finish for dos anos here i do think that he gets muy kano out of there let's call it round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.

"i think i am going to go with rda in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock pick date unknown
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to go with raphael fizzyev second round ko early on in the second"
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 14 of 36 38% 23 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 51 17% 54 of 107 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Michael Chiesa 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 7 of 34 20% 12 of 39 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:14
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 5 20% 40 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 14 of 36 38% 2 of 23 4 of 4 8 of 9 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 51 17% 6 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 8 of 24 33% 0 of 15 2 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.

by decision
"I'll take RDA by my decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going with michael Chiesa here especially because it's a free round fight I think he's gonna hold Rafael dos Anjos down for two rounds... michael Chiesa gets the job done"