Career Averages - Roman Kopylov
Career Averages - César Almeida
Roman Kopylov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 3 | 61 of 124 | 49% | 69 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 62 of 160 | 38% | 80 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 22 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 1 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 2 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 61 of 124 | 49% | 46 of 97 | 12 of 17 | 3 of 10 | 46 of 102 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 17 |
| Marco Tulio | 62 of 160 | 38% | 28 of 105 | 18 of 34 | 16 of 21 | 62 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 22 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 7 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marco Tulio | 22 of 61 | 36% | 7 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 10 | 22 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 22 of 44 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Marco Tulio | 26 of 57 | 45% | 11 of 37 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 24 of 41 | 58% | 21 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Marco Tulio | 14 of 42 | 33% | 10 of 31 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-198), Kopylov (+164)
Round 1
It is a battle between two finish-first middleweights to move things along, with the loser dropping to a .500 record with the organization. The victor between Kopylov (14-5, 6-5 UFC) and Tulio (14-2, 2-1 UFC) will earn their first win in over a year. Referee Gasper Oliver will be there every step of the way, including the sporting glove touch he watches to open things up.
Both men flirt with out-of-range strikes to get in on one another, and it is Tulio who lands first with a sweeping low kick. Kopylov walks him down but is not ready to engage yet, so Tulio jams him up with a body shot. Kopylov offers up his own calf kick, answered immediately by the Brazilian. Kopylov parries an overhand right and rips a kick to the ribs. Tulio jabs his way forward, following with one to the stomach and just evading an overhand right. Tulio chews up the front leg with kicks that form a welt on his foe’s front leg. Tulio keeps working the calf, and he keeps his hands up when Kopylov storms him with four punches that largely careen off his gloves and arms.
Tulio snaps the head back with a long right hand, and he reaches another to the body as Kopylov retreats. Kopylov comes up short with a high kick, and he lunges out with a left hand but is met with a stern right to the ribs. Tulio sneaks a head kick behind it, and Kopylov tanks it and plods forward. Kopylov retaliates with a body shot, but it is one-and-done as Tulio parries a high kick after it. Kopylov drives a one-two down the middle, one that might have knocked out small fry he faced in the past but is not nearly enough to get more than Tulio’s attention. Kopylov leaps with a knee, and Tulio pushes him to the side and belts him with a few punches before the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Round 2
They touch gloves to get going again, flashing their jabs in alternating stances. Kopylov drills Tulio with a check hook as Tulio is about to come in, and the Brazilian wears it well and is back to working the front leg before long. Kopylov lashes out with a one-two, seemingly getting the time of the advancing Brazilian and timing his explosions well. Tulio goes to the body and head, and Kopylov is quick to counter. Kopylov drills a kick to the side that lands with an audible thud, and hands are subsequently traded. Tulio kicks out the lead leg as Kopylov is about to throw, and he wings a head kick on the other side. Kopylov starts to leak from a wound on his right cheek, but he pays it no mind as he wants to throw hands. He slips on the way in, and dances away when Tulio spins but does not let anything go after it.
Tulio rifles off a right hand down Broadway, and his left hand opens up the cut on Kopylov’s face much more. There is another gash on Kopylov’s eyebrow, and he transforms to a horror movie as blood streams down his face. Tulio is able to take advantage of the damage and snaps out a hard right hand, but he walks directly into the inferno that is suddenly raging inside of Kopylov. Kopylov unleashes a pair of fiery fists that knock Tulio off his feet. Kopylov chases after the Brazilian, who is able to get back to his feet, and swings his way into a clinch. Rather than doing more damage or ending the fight, Kopylov just holds on until the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 3
The 185ers touch gloves to get going, and Kopylov goes hellbent for leather as soon as Oliver says go. Blasting Tulio in the face with a short but devastating combination, he hurts and knocks the Brazilian down at the end of a vicious left hand early on. As he plans on punishing Tulio further, Kopylov elects to take the fight down. Completing a solid double-leg takedown, Kopylov grounds Tulio, but he just holds him there again. Tulio slowly, methodically works back to his feet without absorbing much more offense, and he starts to stalk Kopylov again.
Tulio jabs at the wound on Kopylov’s face, planting a kick on his ribs and eating a left hand over the top for his effort. Kopylov stands firm when Tulio engages, forcing the Brazilian to backpedal after a trio of punches come flying. Tulio jabs the stomach with the ball of his foot outstretched, and his head kick comes up just short. They trade hands, with Kopylov getting the better of the exchanges. Tulio spins to let go with a back kick, and Kopylov keeps him honest with a body kick and head kick. Tulio swings his fists to turn into a back fist, and he slugs Kopylov in the face with a big overhand right but cannot put him down as the buzzer sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.
Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.
Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.
Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.
Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.
Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.
Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.
The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.
Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.
The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.
Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 52 of 105 | 49% | 54 of 109 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 90 of 173 | 52% | 91 of 174 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 70 | 52% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 33 of 68 | 48% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 52 of 105 | 49% | 35 of 80 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 9 | 51 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 90 of 173 | 52% | 59 of 133 | 28 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 84 of 164 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 9 of 16 | 56% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 20 of 35 | 57% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 36 | 63% | 20 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 70 | 52% | 26 of 55 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 62 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 53 | 37% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 33 of 68 | 48% | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.
Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.
Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.
Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.
Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.
Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.
Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 99 of 159 | 62% | 102 of 162 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 48 of 104 | 46% | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 99 of 159 | 62% | 34 of 89 | 41 of 46 | 24 of 24 | 87 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 48 of 104 | 46% | 29 of 79 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 34 of 54 | 62% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 11 of 27 | 40% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 32 of 57 | 56% | 10 of 31 | 18 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 33 of 48 | 68% | 11 of 25 | 16 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)
Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.
Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.
The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 142 of 261 | 54% | 146 of 265 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 130 of 307 | 42% | 133 of 310 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 48 of 110 | 43% | 48 of 110 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 104 | 55% | 59 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 38 of 96 | 39% | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 74 | 56% | 45 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 44 of 101 | 43% | 47 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 142 of 261 | 54% | 107 of 204 | 30 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 142 of 261 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 130 of 307 | 42% | 91 of 266 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 25 | 124 of 300 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 83 | 50% | 32 of 62 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 48 of 110 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 46 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 58 of 104 | 55% | 42 of 78 | 14 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 38 of 96 | 39% | 25 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 74 | 56% | 33 of 64 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 44 of 101 | 43% | 33 of 90 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.
Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.
Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.
Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.
Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.
Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.
Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.
Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.
The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.
Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 105 | 55% | 114 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 41 of 71 | 57% | 74 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 34 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 58 of 105 | 55% | 18 of 52 | 24 of 30 | 16 of 23 | 51 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| César Almeida | 41 of 71 | 57% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 12 of 17 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| César Almeida | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 36 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 14 of 21 | 66% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)
Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.
Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.
Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.
Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.
The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.
Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 35 of 57 | 61% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 34 of 77 | 44% | 28 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Roman Kopylov | 35 of 57 | 61% | 21 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 14 of 35 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 19 of 28 | 67% | 13 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)
Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.
The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.
Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.
Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.
Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 1 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 54 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 38 of 116 | 32% | 38 of 116 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 1 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 16 of 58 | 27% | 16 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 49 of 84 | 58% | 23 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 17 of 18 | 47 of 80 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 38 of 116 | 32% | 18 of 81 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 22 | 37 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 27 of 41 | 65% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 22 of 58 | 37% | 5 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 22 of 43 | 51% | 15 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 16 of 58 | 27% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 8 | 16 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)
Round 1
Middleweights are next on the docket, as Kopylov (11-2, 3-2 UFC) tries to make it four wins in a row at 185 pounds. A Factory X representative, Fremd (11-4, 2-2 UFC) headlined multiple Legacy Fighting Alliance events prior to his signing with the UFC in 2022. Mark Smith answers the call as the third man in the cage. Fremd pumps out his jab from the start, eats a few leg kicks and scores with some shin to skin contact to the body. Kopylov continues to target the lead leg with kicks and seems content to allow the fight to come to him. A low blow from Fremd results in a brief pause before they resume their dance in the center of the cage. Fremd sneaks in front kick to the body and backs up the Russian with a multi-strike burst of hands and feet. Kopylov connects with a surgical two-punch combination. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Fremd shoots on a single-leg but gets nowhere. Kopylov breaks away with punches, takes the center of the cage and uncorks his educated hands. He follows them with a kick to the body. Momentum is starting to turn here. Fremd shoots on another takedown attempt with 20 seconds left, only to get denied. Kopylov lands with a spinning backfist and an uppercut to close the round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
Kopylov drives a left hand into the body, follows with an uppercut and goes back upstairs with his hands, knocking Fremd off-balance. Fremd paws with his jab and whiffs on a takedown, then eats a head kick. Damage has started to build on his face and his body. Kopylov denies a single-leg takedown, pushes away the American. Fremd’s mouth is wide open, likely due to difficulty breathing through a bloody nose. Kopylov picks his shots but catches another kick low. Smith pauses the action and issues another warning. Kopylov goes to the body and head with a beautiful combination. He backs away and narrowly misses a lunging right uppercut. A savage kick to the body forces Fremd to drop his hands. Kopylov wisely follows with a head kick.
A left hook to the liver drops Fremd to all fours and results in an immediate stoppage
.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Josh Fremd—KO (Punch to the Body) 4:44 R2
Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.
Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.
Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.
Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.
Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.
César Almeida - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pinas (-225), Almeida (+185)
Round 1
Having gotten most of our giggles out of our system with a fighter name, we look to the middleweight division between two men that finish what they start. Pinas (9-1, 1-0 UFC) measures significantly longer than former kickboxer Almeida (7-2, 3-2 UFC) and will be 14 years his junior. Whether the old lion can still roar, or Pinas will pound him, the next 15 minutes or less will show us everything. The Octagon ranger for a bout he may get involved in before too long is referee Chris Tognoni. The fighters opt against touching gloves before letting one another have it.
Pinas starts first with a low kick, and Almeida switches stances and has a body kick brush the top of his cup. This prompts “careful, careful” warnings from Tognoni. Almeida beats Pinas to the kick, firing his leg to three targets low, body and head. Standing firm, the ex-kickboxer kicks away, only to encounter three crushing calf kicks that quickly add up. As Almeida kicks high, Pinas grabs his leg and tosses him to the mat. Almeida climbs back up and forces the clinch to lean on the younger man, pressing Pinas to the wall for a time. Almeida abandons the tie-up to land a low calf kick that makes a thudding sound when connecting. Pinas goes high with a head kick, and his foot skims the top of the dome as the crowd gasps.
Almeida checks a kick and steps in with a right hand, and Pinas stumbles back. “The Baba Yaga” regains his footing and gets back into kickboxing range to trade legs with his foe. Almeida kicks him in the stomach, and both fighters trade fists. Almeida weaves and moves to take the sting out of what comes at him, while chambering and firing kicks off in a hurry. He steps to penetrate Pinas’ guard with a long left hand, feigning a spin after to draw out a reaction.
He does this a few times and pitches a naked low kick, his hands down and wide open for a counter. Pinas sees the hole in Almeida’s defenses and lances the elder statesman with one devastating thrust. Almeida locks up as he collapses to the mat on his back, totally wrecked. Pinas walks off, thinking his work here is done, but Tognoni is not quite ready to intervene for some reason. Pinas looks to Tognoni as if to plead with him that he does not need to keep punishing Almeida, and he sighs and walks forward to smack Almeida with a finalizing right hand while Almeida is turned the other direction all messed up.
Tognoni does wave it off finally, and Pinas gets the walkoff he was seeking. The two embrace and are totally gracious with one another after a fun kicking battle which ended with a fist of fury.
The Official Result
Damian Pinas def. Cesar Almeida R1 4:44 via KO (Punch)
AJ picks Pinas to knock out Almeida, emphasizing Pinas's youth, power, and reach advantage. He compares Pinas to a Deontay Wilder type, believing his one-shot power will be too much for the 38-year-old Almeida. AJ notes that Almeida has been dropped before and that Pinas's explosiveness will be decisive.
AJ is confident in Damian Pinas, calling him a one-shot killer. He expects Pinas to knock out César Almeida in the first round, noting Almeida's vulnerability to straight shots and Pinas's power and speed. He sees Pinas as a blue-chip prospect.
AJ picks Damian Pinas by knockout, citing Pinas's 'touch of death' power and straight right hand. He believes Pinas's speed and reach advantage will allow him to land first on Almeida, who has been dropped before. He expects Pinas to knock out Almeida with a straight shot and ground and pound.
AJ is riding with Damian Pinas to get the knockout, believing in his heavy hands and that he will touch Almeida's chin. He picks Pinas KO round one at +275 (previously +300), noting that Almeida is ripe for the picking and has been caught with straight shots before.
AJ picks Damian Pinas, believing he will knock out Almeida. He cites Pinas's power, heavy hands, and explosiveness, and sees a straight punch landing on Almeida's chin. AJ thinks Almeida is there to be hit.
AJ picks Pinas but notes he is fighting a legit Glory kickboxer in the biggest fight of his career, implying risk. He also mentions he likes Gandra more than Pinas.
Angelo picks César Almeida because he is a much more accomplished striker with high-level kickboxing experience. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's age (38) and that he has been dropped, but believes his striking is so good that he forces opponents to wrestle. He thinks if Pinas comes in trying to knock him out, things could get weird, but Almeida is the better striker and the pick.
Angelo picks Almeida as the better striker, but is hesitant due to age (38) and potential chin issues. He notes Pinas has fight-ending power and speed, but trusts Almeida's high-level kickboxing technique. He expects a striking match and hopes Almeida's chin holds up.
Big Brady passes on this fight despite joking about liking Pinas. He cannot lay -275 on Pinas in a striking fight against a high-level kickboxer, and neither fighter has ever been finished. He considers an under bet but decides against it.
Big Brady is confident Pinas wins, likely by KO. He thinks Pinas hits harder and is 14 years younger. He expects a stand-and-bang fight similar to Alasan vs Almeida, where both swing dicks until someone falls. He notes Almeida has never been KO'd but has been dropped badly. He might look at Pinas KO1 or under 1.5 rounds, as he doesn't like laying -210 if it leaves the first round.
Big Brady picks Damian Pinas to win by first-round knockout. He loves Pinas's power and believes he will be the first to knock out Almeida. He notes Almeida's kickboxing experience and never being knocked out, but points out he has been dropped in the UFC. He expects a striking battle and thinks Pinas's power will prevail.
Cody picks César Almeida, arguing he is the better striker with a diverse attack. He notes Pinas's power but questions his durability and cardio. He believes Almeida's veteran savvy and chin will carry him.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Damian Pinas, citing his youth, athleticism, and rapid improvement. He believes Pinas can strike with Almeida and may even showcase new wrestling wrinkles. Levi predicts Almeida, at 38, is about to fall off a cliff, while Pinas is a serious prospect with a bright future.
Jacob picks César Almeida but also likes the value on Damian Pinas first round KO. He compares Almeida to a poor man's Alex Pereira, noting his striking defense isn't great but he has power and a good chin. He thinks Pinas has power and could hurt Almeida early, but if the fight extends, Almeida's experience and striking will take over. He placed a bet on Pinas first round KO but picks Almeida.
Lucrative James picks Damian Pinas via KO, citing Pinas's power and Almeida's age (approaching 40) and history of being hurt. He acknowledges Almeida is the better striker but believes Pinas can catch him early. He notes he might also consider betting Almeida if the line moves, as Almeida could win if he survives the early onslaught.
The host favors technically superior fighters, especially when they are big underdogs. He picks Almeida to knock out Pinas with a perfectly timed counter.
The host favors Almeida's technical striking and kickboxing experience over Pinas's raw power, expecting Almeida to counter Pinas's aggression and find a knockout. He notes Pinas's youth and power are threats but believes Almeida's superior technique will prevail at plus money.
Paul picks César Almeida as a dog, citing his superior kickboxing and durability. He questions Pinas's wrestling and believes Almeida can win if it stays standing. He notes Almeida's experience against elite strikers.
The MMA Guru picks Damian Pinas to win by decision, despite being a -210 favorite. He thinks Pinas is explosive and big for the division, but notes that Almeida is a great kickboxer who trained with Alex Pereira. He expects Pinas to drop Almeida but Almeida to survive and the fight to go to a competitive decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 113 of 126 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 11:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 33 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 48 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 12 of 20 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oleksiejczuk (-200); Almeida (+170)
Round 1
It’s a battle of men named after Roman emperor Caesar in this middleweight “featured fight of the night.” Two hard-swinging gents will ply their trade against one another while referee Kerry Hatley keeps things on the up-and-up. Almeida (7-1, 3-1 UFC), former kickboxer, still hopes to one day rematch Alex Pereira in a cage. If he hopes to sniff another fight with the current light heavyweight king, he will have to get past Oleksiejczuk (16-3, 0-0 UFC) and then work his way up the 205-pound ladder. The strikers try to touch ‘em up before they start striking, but somehow they miss their connection a couple times.
When they start fighting, it is all about the feint and fake for Oleksiejczuk, who is in the center of the Octagon looking to pressure forward. The ex-kickboxer is fine staying at distance, as it is a place he would prefer so he can chamber his big right hand and power rear-leg kick. He blasts Oleksiejczuk with a body kick from said back leg, and he overswings a right hand that allows Oleksiejczuk to tackle him to the mat with excellent timing. Oleksiejczuk steps right over to side control, and he wraps up Almeida’s right arm beneath his leg in a partial crucifix. Almeida frees his wing after taking some strikes, and Oleksiejczuk smothers him with the heaviest of chest pressure.
Oleksiejczuk thumps his man with surprisingly effective shoulder strikes, pumping them one after another into the kickfighter’s jaw. Oleksiejczuk sits up to drive down left hands, and he reassumes half guard to keep Almeida from escaping. Almeida recovers to full guard, where he uses a single butterfly hook to push off the hip and get enough space to scoot his way to the wall. Oleksiejczuk leaps back on top of him into the closed guard, and he softens the Brazilian up with body shots. Oleksiejczuk stacks his man up to break the guard, positioning Almeida’s neck in the uncomfortable position between the cage wall and floor. Almeida bucks but is still stuck on the floor, albeit slowly squirming to his knees and then up to his feet. Oleksiejczuk knees his foe in the gut when standing, and he further wears on “Cesinha” with shoulder pressure. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Oleksiejczuk lashes out with an elbow and breaks, retreating until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Round 2
Almeida intercepts a rapidly advancing Oleksiejczuk at the start of the round with a body kick. Oleksiejczuk pays him back with a one-two down the pipe, but another kick to the ribs from the Brazilian doubles him over briefly. Oleksiejczuk dodges a sweeping low kick and blocks one to his shoulder, with Almeida now standing firm in the middle of the Octagon. They both pop one another with the jab, and Oleksiejczuk loads up on a right hand and gets clubbed with a right-hand counter. The land from the former kickboxer shakes Oleksiejczuk up, who immediately shoots for a takedown and puts Almeida on his back with relative ease. Almeida is able to get to his knees much faster this go-round, and he even stands up despite Oleksiejczuk lacing his own leg between Almeida’s. Almeida hangs on with a kimura grip to potentially threaten or at least reposition them, but Oleksiejczuk ends up wrangling his man to the mat with a body lock takedown. He lands flat on top of Almeida, who intends on implementing butterfly hooks again to push off the hips until Oleksiejczuk steps over to half guard.
Oleksiejczuk uses his shoulder to smack Almeida in the face a couple times, but he gets complacent on top and drops his guard. This allows Almeida to sweep him and flip him to his back, where the Brazilian establishes top position in the guard. Oleksiejczuk is quick to kick off Almeida’s chest, pushing the former kickboxer over to his back so that Oleksiejczuk can reassume top control. Oleksiejczuk gets to the side fairly comfortably, and he drums down a hammerfist or two while Almeida scrambles on his own side. Oleksiejczuk elbows him on the ear and moves to half guard to ride out the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk
Round 3
To the surprise of no one, Oleksiejczuk looks to implement his grappling and keep his 100% takedown rate tonight intact. He succeeds in tossing Almeida to his back, with each attempt coming easier than the last. He lands in side control with little resistance from the Brazilian, and he works the body with strikes. One elbow pounds directly into Almeida’s cup in a very rare foul from that angle, and Hatley takes a second and calls time. It is also observed on the replay that Almeida struck Oleksiejczuk to the head with his knee while they were grounded, which is a foul on his end as well. Penalties offset, repeat first down. The two re-engage after about a minute break, with Hatley resetting the fighters on their feet when they do. Oleksiejczuk takes a few seconds to gather a full head of steam, and he bulldozes Almeida over with his takedown tackle. Oleksiejczuk postures up every so often to drop down a strike, but he is much more content on shutting down the former kickboxer than banging it out with him.
Oleksiejczuk switches to elbows, and he isolates an arm-triangle choke and considers stepping into full mount. The Polish fighter bails on the choke attempt to remain in half guard keeping Almeida pinned flat on the canvas. Almeida slowly drags himself to his seat, then turns over to his knees, but no further before Oleksiejczuk climbs on his back. Oleksiejczuk drops down every pound of weight he has on top of Almeida to prevent him from standing, as Almeida spins about and still manages to wall-walk his way up. With 15 seconds left, Almeida flirts with a guillotine choke, jumping guard for it and losing it on the way down. The horn sounds, and the two middleweights have gone the distance. Oleksiejczuk collapses to his back in pain, while Almeida stands up and limps away.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk (30-27 Oleksiejczuk)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk (30-27 Oleksiejczuk)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oleksiejczuk (30-27 Oleksiejczuk)
The Official Result
Cezary Oleksiejczuk def. Cesar Almeida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Cody picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, experience, and training at Fighting Nerds. He believes Oleksiejczuk's wrestling and power will be too much for Almeida, who is older and has poor takedown defense. He expects a finish, possibly by submission.
Connor also picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, aggression, and more well-rounded game. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is bad and that Oleksiejczuk can take advantage of that. Connor also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow, and that Oleksiejczuk's ability to initiate exchanges will be key. He sees it as a coin flip but leans to Oleksiejczuk.
Lucrative James picks Cesari Oleksiejczuk (Michał's brother) but acknowledges it's a close fight. He notes Oleksiejczuk's youth, power, and improved grappling at Fighting Nerds, but warns about his takedown defense issues. He believes Oleksiejczuk needs to mix in takedowns to avoid Almeida's knockout power. He projects Oleksiejczuk as a -150 favorite.
Paul also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting his amateur grappling background and the improvements at Fighting Nerds. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can mix in wrestling to avoid Almeida's kickboxing and get a submission, liking the sub prop at plus 750.
Zane picks Oleksiejczuk because he is a young, aggressive prospect with a more well-rounded game than Almeida. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is a huge weakness, and Oleksiejczuk can exploit that by initiating exchanges and mixing in takedowns. Zane also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow-paced, and Oleksiejczuk's front-foot pressure should allow him to dictate the fight. He acknowledges that Almeida is hard to hurt but believes Oleksiejczuk's aggression will be enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 20 of 29 | 68% | 3 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 20 of 29 | 68% | 3 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
From one brawl to another we go, as flamethrowing Brazilian Almeida (6-1, 2-1 UFC) looks to build momentum after rebounding from his first career defeat. He meets fellow haymaker aficionado Alhassan (12-6, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) in what could be a wild one for as long as it lasts. Hoping to avoid any errant blows will be referee Mike Beltran, but he has a chin and can take one or two without batting an eye. The 185ers touch ‘em up, and Almeida is the initial aggressor as he stalks the former welterweight down. Almeida strikes first in about 25 seconds, landing a low kick and having a high kick glide off the guard. Alhassan surges forward hurling a right hand, and he springs after it with two more hooks. Alhassan shoots for a double, and he bails on it when the two reach the wall. Almeida gets out of the tie-up and kicks the front leg twice. Alhassan wings a right hand that hooks behind the ear, and he pitches a second as Almeida does not bat an eye and instead counters with kicks. Almeida calmly walks him down behind low kicks, and he splits the guard with a right hand and pounds a knee off his foe’s arms. Alhassan sneaks in a power right hand, and Almeida responds with a body kick. The middleweights boot the body, and when Almeida tries for a second, Alhassan is on him with an overhand right. Alhassan kicks from both legs for shooting for a takedown, and they result in a clinch again. Alhassan lifts Almeida up with a knee to the sternum, and the Brazilian gives him one back to think about. Almeida turns him to the side and hammers the front leg with a kick. Alhassan chambers and looses a bomb of a right hand, dropping Almeida and hurting him badly. Almeida on autopilot looks for a takedown, but Alhassan pushes him over and starts battering him with ground strikes. Still calm as a cucumber, Almeida climbs to a knee, gets bombed with a right hand and muscles his way to his feet. Alhassan wants to get the job done once and for all, and he bombards the Brazilian with huge punches.
Almeida bounces off the fence, still in the fight and willing to trade, and he connects with a picture-perfect left hand that ices Alhassan. As if he were frozen in rigor mortis, Alhassan collapses lifelessly to his back, arms locked by his side and the back of his head clattering scarily off the canvas. Alhassan is all the way gone, eyes stuck open as they stare into the abyss.
The abyss stares back, with the expression on Alhassan’s face reminiscent of Rashad Evans’ obliteration at the hands of Lyoto Machida. The Ghanaian fighter is out for quite some time, and thankfully, he recovers and is lifted on the stool. Medical officials tend to Alhassan, who manages to come to but is still in a bad, bad way. Meanwhile, “Knockout of the Year” has an early contender one show in thanks to the devastating power of Almeida.
The Official Result
Cesar Almeida def. Abdul Razak Alhassan R1 4:16 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks César Almeida, reasoning that Abdul Razak Alhassan is essentially a striker despite his Judo background, and Almeida is the more accomplished kickboxer. He notes Alhassan's age (39) and that strikers decline faster. He believes Almeida's striking will be the difference, as Alhassan doesn't use his Judo. He has Almeida in a parlay with Uroš Medić.
Big Brady is baffled by the line and not high on Almeida. He notes Almeida's takedown defense is a serious concern, as he was taken down by Potieria and Kopylov. However, he thinks Alhassan's cardio and age (39) are issues, and Alhassan has never won a fight past 6 minutes. He predicts Almeida will win the last two rounds on the feet and win by decision, as Alhassan will slow down.
Cody fades Almeida as a -250 favorite, citing his poor takedown defense exposed by Roman Kopylov and Ihor Potieria. He notes Alhassan's power, improved cardio training at altitude, and veteran experience. He believes Alhassan can win by knockout or by grinding out a decision if he mixes in takedowns.
Connor picks Almeida because he is a more technical striker who does not get flustered, and he has shown ability to handle wrestling and grappling threats. Almeida is comfortable in the clinch and finds strikes on the break. Alhassan, despite his power, is structureless on the back foot and tends to fight off his back foot, which plays into Almeida's hands. Connor notes that Alhassan's only path is to land a big shot early, but Almeida's counter-striking and patience should prevail.
Daniel acknowledges Alhassan's devastating first-round KO power and judo background, but worries about his cardio and age (close to 40). He thinks Almeida's technical kickboxing will pick Alhassan apart if the fight goes past the first round. He leans Almeida but calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Lucrative James picks César Almeida to win, citing his superior kickboxing and cardio. He acknowledges Alhassan's power and wrestling threat, but believes Alhassan will gas if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's poor grappling but thinks Alhassan won't be able to wrestle for three rounds. He also mentions a prop bet on over 1.5 rounds at -170, as he expects Almeida to survive the early storm.
Almeida has technical combinations while Alhassan has power. Almeida can shut down Alhassan's judo attempts, keep the fight on the feet, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.
Paul also picks Alhassan, calling Almeida untrustworthy due to his grappling deficiencies. He notes that Alhassan has a judo base and has taken down good fighters. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at +145, expecting a violent finish.
The Guru picks Almeida but is not fully confident. He was unimpressed by Almeida's performance against Ihor Potieria (despite the eye pokes) but notes Almeida is younger (36 vs 39), trains with Pereira, and has momentum. He acknowledges Alhassan's explosiveness and danger but points out his six losses and age. He predicts a TKO, thinking Almeida might chin Alhassan.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Almeida is a violent but limited kickboxer who has shown resilience and ability to adapt. He points out that Almeida's guillotine threat and comfort in the clinch make him dangerous. Alhassan is nearly 40 with only two wins since 2018, and his fight IQ is poor. Zane also mentions that Alhassan's tendency to fight off his back foot will allow Almeida to be first and land cleaner shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 57 of 113 | 50% | 78 of 137 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 44 of 89 | 49% | 57 of 102 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 57 of 113 | 50% | 32 of 69 | 14 of 28 | 11 of 16 | 41 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 44 of 89 | 49% | 22 of 64 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 42 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 23 of 41 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 16 of 32 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 22 of 36 | 61% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 12 of 36 | 33% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 18 of 40 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-410), Potieria (+320)
Round 1
Fresh off his first career defeat—a decision against Roman Kopylov—Alex Pereira’s teammate Almeida (5-1, 1-1 UFC) will get back in the cage in hopes of reversing his fortunes. He greets struggling Ukrainian Potieria (20-6, 2-4 UFC), who has seen three of his last four go the wrong way. With a finish entirely possible between these two stoppage-friendly middleweights, referee Dave Seljestad is on his A-game for this encounter. The fighters do not bump fists, staying in close range early while trying to measure the other. Quick jabs and kicks come out from both fighters, with Potieria landing a solid left hand at the end of an exchange. Almeida chops down the front leg with a pair of quick strikes, and he backs away to dodge a wheel kick. Potieria lunges with a left hand, and Almeida digs a right to the ribs. Almeida tosses out a body kick and parries a few punches so he can go to the body with a hand and then a foot. Potieria connects with three punches before Almeida get away, and the Brazilian pursues more body shots with kicks and punches. Almeida jabs the body and kicks low, and Potieria jumps at him and swings wildly. While the Ukrainian tags Almeida, Almeida counters him back. Potieria pursues a single, and he lifts Almeida up but sets him down when he does not have the right angle to secure the takedown. Almeida gets away and lashes out with a head kick and a follow-up right hand that sends Potieria staggering back. Almeida goes for a few home run punches, and Potieria responds with a failed level change. Almeida continues attacking the body, and he catches a kick and goes after a takedown. When Potieria retaliates with a guillotine choke setup, Almeida bails to get back to kickboxing range, where he potshots Potieria with long punches and accurate kicks. Almeida slams his man in the leg with a kick, and he connects with a right hand to follow. Potieria wants to change levels, and he succeeds in sucking Almeida’s hips out to drag him down. Almeida wall-walks to get back to his feet, and Potieria stays tight against him until Almeida spins out. Potieria scores a right hand, attempts an elbow and gets caught with a right hand in response. Potieria sneaks in a right, blocks a right hand and dives after a takedown right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle to start the second stanza, and Potieria attacks first with a low kick. Almeida comes back at him with a high kick that is blocked, and he keeps jabbing with his feet. Potieria ducks a faked level change and walks into an eye poke, and he turns away even as Seljestad has not called it. Almeida walks him down and slugs him in the gut, but the punch goes low and slams into the cup. Seljestad calls this second foul, and Potieria walks away to lean on the cage and recover. Potieria blows his nose on the cage floor, and after about 75 seconds off, he is good to go. The fight resumes, and when Potieria advances, Almeida pushes off and his finger slides into the Ukrainian’s other eye socket. Potieria walks away again, upset from the numerous fouls, and Seljestad takes a moment before calling time. Potieria is not thrilled, but he takes a minute to get his bearings. The fight clocks back in, and Almeida remarkably pokes Potieria again after a body kick—that makes four in the span of two minutes, without so much as a warning, much less a merited point deduction. Seljestad does not call this one, and Potieria takes it upon himself to grit his teeth and tackle Almeida down to the mat. Almeida muscles his way upright before long, and he swings for the bleachers. Potieria takes a few punches on the chin and pursues a single, driving the kickboxer to the mat. Almeida defends with a guillotine choke, and he rolls over “The Duelist” while squeezing the life out of him. Potieria bucks and twists to get out of the submission, but Almeida is on top of him in full mount. Almeida bashes his man with an elbow, and he measures a few more heavy blows down while Potieria hangs on tight. Almeida unloads four elbows on the forehead, holding Potieria’s head down with his other hand while punching him in the face. Potieria sits up to put his face on Almeida’s chest, and he gives his back up without serious concern of a submission. Almeida tries a few one-armed rear-naked chokes as he has one hook in, and he smacks Potieria in the side of the head and rolls Potieria over to get back to mount. The round ends with some heavy punches and elbows from the Brazilian.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
Seljestad informs Almeida between rounds to not have his fingers outstretched towards his opponent. The last round kicks off with Potieria leading the dance with a high kick and a left hand. Almeida backs him off with a thudding right hand, and a body kick answers him. Almeida pushes off and appears to jab Potieria in the eye again, and Seljestad does not call it and tells him to keep fighting. Potieria is mad, and Almeida shows that his fists were closed. Potieria swats his hand away, clearly frustrated, and Almeida wants to get the job done with haymakers. Almeida busts his man on the chops with several heavy blows, knocking Potieria’s head around, but Potieria is tough as nails and tries to clinch up. Seljestad separates them incredibly quickly—this is not a great showing for the local referee—and Almeida thanks him by cracking Potieria with a few punches. Potieria lowers his hands and attacks from odd angles, only to get driven back with a right hand behind the ear and a body kick. Potieria pushes Almeida into the clinch, and Seljestad calls for action within seconds and splits them up. This is not good. Not good at all. Almeida is glad to have the space to keep kicking, and Potieria is quick to tie him up again. Seljestad asks for activity and once more has an ultra-fast separation—we may not see Seljestad in many future UFC cards at this rate, and this is his only assignment today. Almeida loads up on full power strikes, smashing Potieria in the face and body without fear of reprisal. Potieria stuffs a takedown, bowling the Brazilian over. Without enough energy to pursue a final flurry, the mess of a fight mercifully comes to a conclusion as Potieria just hangs on. Someone in the cage is about to get a stern talking to in the next hour or two, and it will not likely be one of the competitors.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
The Official Result
Cesar Almeida def. Ihor Potieria via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.
Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.
Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.
Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.
The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.
Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.
Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 105 | 55% | 114 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 41 of 71 | 57% | 74 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 34 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 58 of 105 | 55% | 18 of 52 | 24 of 30 | 16 of 23 | 51 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| César Almeida | 41 of 71 | 57% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 12 of 17 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| César Almeida | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 36 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 14 of 21 | 66% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)
Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.
Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.
Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.
Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.
The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.
Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:53 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 87 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 43 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 29 of 38 | 76% | 21 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 28 of 36 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Budka (-148), Almeida (+124)
Round 1
A pair of pickups from Dana White’s Contender Series’ 2023 Season will be making their debuts against one another. In the one corner, “The Mindless Hulk” Budka (7-2, 0-0 UFC) aims to display his above-average fight IQ while Almeida (4-0, 0-0 UFC) comes in with just four bouts on his ledger. The middleweights will receive oversight from referee Mark Smith, and they touch gloves to make things official. Budka immediately takes to the outer edge of the cage, strafing back and forth before loosing a head kick that gets blocked. Almeida slowly works his way forward, eating a body kick as he scores a left hook. Budka races forward, tackling Almeida clean off his feet with a powerful double-leg entry. Almeida hits his seat and scoots his way towards the fence, only for Budka to interlock his legs around his foe’s to trap him. Any time Almeida posts off his right arm, Budka yanks it out and keeps him down. Almeida eventually explodes back to his feet, and Budka drops down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown. Budka lifts his man up but cannot ground him, as Almeida recovers his balance before hitting the deck. Budka sells out for a double, and he scoops the Brazilian up and dumps him to the mat. Once more, Budka traps Almeida’s legs beneath his own. Almeida slowly wall-walks until he wriggles his legs out and forces his way back to his feet, but Budka remains stuck on him like a cheap suit. Smith asks for more action when the two stall out, and Almeida delivers a few short punches to the side of the head as Budka attempts another takedown. Budka switches from double to single, and Almeida’s defense holds up well enough even as he is otherwise nullified. Almeida looks for any punch he can find from a strange angle, but no blow has any particular power behind it. The round ends with the two tied up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Budka
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Budka
Round 2
Budka begins the round again backing off to the outer reach of the fencing, and he takes a few distance strikes before blitzing ahead with a double that puts the Brazilian on his back. Almeida immediately worms his way back and climbs up with the chain links behind him, and in no time, Budka is on him going for a single. Almeida drops down a few elbows to the side of the head when he finds the right leverage, and he works Budka on both sides of the head using short but growingly effective punches. Almeida’s strikes start swelling up Budka’s right cheek, and when he fights his way out of the grip, he sees Budka sucking wind. Almeida aims several strikes to the body to continue to exhaust him, and Budka shoots for a desperate takedown with nothing behind it.
Almeida slams elbows on the side of the head, and Budka’s legs crumble. Budka turns to his knees, in big trouble and trying to shell up, and Almeida lays waste to him with a number of right hands. With Budka nothing more than a punching bag at this point, Smith waves the fight off
, and Almeida has staged the mighty comeback while keeping his record flawless as a pro.
The Official Result
Cesar Almeida def. Dylan Budka R2 2:13 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo leans Dylan Budka (whom he accidentally calls Gillan) because he is a grappler facing a striker. He expects Budka to shoot takedowns instantly and not stand and strike with César Almeida, a high-level kickboxer. He notes that Almeida's takedown defense is unknown and that defending trips on Contender Series is different from defending actual shots. However, he acknowledges the unknowns with UFC debuts.
Big Brady picks César Almeida as the underdog, citing that Almeida is the much better striker with an extensive kickboxing background. He notes that the judges have been emphasizing damage over control, which favors Almeida's big shots. However, he acknowledges that Budka could rack up control time with wrestling, but doubts Budka will do much with it. He sees a close fight with Almeida landing bigger shots and winning a decision.
Cody picks Almeida as a dog, citing his win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing and his striking advantage. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler with poor cardio, and that Almeida's takedown defense, while not great, may be enough to get back to his feet. Cody thinks Almeida's striking will be the difference, especially if Budka tires.
Daniel Vreeland picks César Almeida, expecting him to overcome early grappling scares and take over on the feet in later rounds. He notes Almeida's kickboxing pedigree from fighting Patan three times and his ability to get back up after takedowns. Vreeland believes Almeida's body shots, leg kicks, and jab will slow Budka's takedown attempts, allowing Almeida to finesse him on the feet.
Almeida is technically the better striker with kickboxing experience, including a win over Alex Pereira. He showed improved grappling in his last fight, which should help nullify Budka's clinch and grinding. Budka is physically strong but lacks technique; Almeida can damage him in close with knees and elbows, then win by decision.
Paul picks Budka but with low conviction. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler, while Almeida is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. Paul thinks Budka can grind out a win by takedowns and control, but acknowledges Almeida's striking pedigree and the possibility of a knockout. He calls it a pass fight.
The host emphasizes Budka's elite high school wrestling credentials (87-5 record, national champion, All-American) and contrasts it with Almeida's kickboxing background. He notes that Almeida was taken down by Lucas Fernando, who has no wrestling background, and argues Budka's wrestling will be the decisive factor. He predicts Budka will dominate with takedowns and calls it a lock, threatening to quit covering the sport if Budka doesn't outwrestle Almeida.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.
Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.
Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.
Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.
The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.
Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!