Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
Career Averages - Dustin Poirier
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 61 | 29% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 140 of 188 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 19:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 32 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 61 | 29% | 10 of 45 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 30 of 57 | 52% | 14 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.
Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.
Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.
Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.
The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Renato Moicano | 9 of 27 | 33% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.
Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.
Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.
Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.
The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 88 of 156 | 56% | 147 of 222 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 74 of 183 | 40% | 104 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 46 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 88 of 156 | 56% | 81 of 148 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 71 of 136 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 |
| Dustin Poirier | 74 of 183 | 40% | 53 of 159 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 51 of 157 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dustin Poirier | 24 of 58 | 41% | 18 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 24 | 75% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 15 of 36 | 41% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 23 of 61 | 37% | 12 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 1 | 24 of 29 | 82% | 39 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 24 of 29 | 82% | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.
Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.
James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.
Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 57 of 95 | 60% | 95 of 135 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 7:37 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 70 of 143 | 48% | 164 of 255 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 19 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 49 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 57 of 95 | 60% | 36 of 72 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 82 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 70 of 143 | 48% | 37 of 96 | 21 of 33 | 12 of 14 | 58 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 19 of 32 | 59% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 19 of 34 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.
Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.
Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.
Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.
Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.
Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 30 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| King Green | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 |
| King Green | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.
Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.
Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.
Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.
Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.
Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.
Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.
Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.
Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.
Dustin Poirier - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 1 | 198 of 375 | 52% | 201 of 378 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 109 of 255 | 42% | 109 of 255 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 1 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 47 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 84 | 52% | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 198 of 375 | 52% | 103 of 253 | 64 of 80 | 31 of 42 | 182 of 351 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 109 of 255 | 42% | 94 of 235 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 102 of 243 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 26 of 64 | 40% | 9 of 39 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Dustin Poirier | 16 of 32 | 50% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 44 of 67 | 65% | 31 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 43 | 58% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 61 | 62% | 18 of 36 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 44 of 84 | 52% | 23 of 57 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 22 of 68 | 32% | 21 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 46 of 99 | 46% | 22 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 46 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.
Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.
The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.
Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 88 of 156 | 56% | 147 of 222 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 74 of 183 | 40% | 104 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 46 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 29 of 53 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 88 of 156 | 56% | 81 of 148 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 71 of 136 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 |
| Dustin Poirier | 74 of 183 | 40% | 53 of 159 | 18 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 51 of 157 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dustin Poirier | 24 of 58 | 41% | 18 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 24 | 75% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 15 of 36 | 41% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Islam Makhachev | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 23 of 61 | 37% | 12 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Islam Makhachev | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 11 of 23 | 47% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 28 of 34 | 82% | 30 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 50 of 74 | 67% | 69 of 97 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 4:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 12 of 13 | 92% | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 38 of 49 | 77% | 53 of 68 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 1 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 16 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 28 of 34 | 82% | 24 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 25 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 50 of 74 | 67% | 25 of 46 | 18 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 37 | 31 of 35 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 12 of 13 | 92% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 38 of 49 | 77% | 21 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 22 | 23 of 25 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 16 of 21 | 76% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.
Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.
Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.
Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.
Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.
Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.
The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 41 of 66 | 62% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 27 of 52 | 51% | 21 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 41 of 66 | 62% | 23 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 27 of 51 | 52% | 21 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 33 of 56 | 58% | 18 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.
Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.
Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.
James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.
Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.
Paul leans Gaethje due to plus money and Gaethje's proven ability to break opponents down in later rounds, referencing the Fiziev fight where Gaethje faded Fiziev in the third. He questions Poirier's durability and willingness to take damage at 34, noting Poirier's recent fights have been early finishes or high-damage affairs. He also highlights Gaethje's camp in Colorado producing good results. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and prefers the plus money ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 63 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 43 of 100 | 43% | 65 of 135 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 31 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 23 of 69 | 33% | 24 of 73 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 39 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 | |
| 3 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 38 of 76 | 50% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 |
| Michael Chandler | 43 of 100 | 43% | 32 of 80 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 28 of 57 | 49% | 25 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 23 of 69 | 33% | 16 of 54 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 21 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 18 of 25 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | |
| 3 | Dustin Poirier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Michael Chandler | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)
Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.
The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.
Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.
Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.
The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.
Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 73 of 131 | 55% | 98 of 157 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 3 | 1 | 5:41 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 58 of 94 | 61% | 69 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 48 of 92 | 52% | 51 of 96 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 54 of 87 | 62% | 58 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 45 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 4:27 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 73 of 131 | 55% | 48 of 99 | 22 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 86 | 17 of 19 | 18 of 26 |
| Dustin Poirier | 58 of 94 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 49 of 80 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 48 of 92 | 52% | 28 of 66 | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 76 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Dustin Poirier | 54 of 87 | 62% | 52 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 76 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 23 of 32 | 71% | 19 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 25 |
| Dustin Poirier | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by submission in the second round, but with low confidence. He notes that Oliveira has improved immensely, answering questions about his cardio and chin. He believes Oliveira can get the fight to the mat, where he is a wizard, and submit Poirier. Poirier has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but has been taken down by grapplers like Dan Hooker. Brady is staying away from moneyline bets and is playing props.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the lightweight title. He emphasizes Poirier's finishing instinct, particularly his patented blitz when he hurts opponents, and his ability to throw high volume (350+ strikes in recent fights). Levi notes that Poirier has survived deep submission attempts before, unlike Michael Chandler who made a 'meathead error' against Oliveira. He believes Poirier's composure and experience on big stages will be key, and that he will hurt Oliveira standing and finish him without making a mistake.
This is a volatile fight. Poirier is the slightly better boxer and should weather Oliveira's early aggression. Oliveira's striking has improved, but Poirier's defensive soundness and experience in five-round fights give him an edge. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Poirier's finishing ability in later rounds is key. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' is a strong play.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Oliveira's check hook as a key weapon against Poirier's vulnerability to left hooks. He also notes Poirier's tendency to leave his neck exposed on the ground, as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira's confidence in his jiu-jitsu allows him to strike freely, while Poirier will be hesitant due to takedown threats.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 36 of 66 | 54% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 46 |
| Conor McGregor | 27 of 38 | 71% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 36 of 66 | 54% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 46 |
| Conor McGregor | 27 of 38 | 71% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.
Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.
Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.
Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.
I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.
Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.
The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 48 of 91 | 52% | 53 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 1 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 48 of 91 | 52% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 21 | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Conor McGregor | 29 of 66 | 43% | 23 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 15 of 34 | 44% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 31 of 54 | 57% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Conor McGregor | 14 of 32 | 43% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.
Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.
McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.
The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.
Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.
Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.
Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.
Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.
The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.
Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.
The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.
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