UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
2.45 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.45 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dustin Poirier
5.24 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.15 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Submission (brabo choke) R1 4:05 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

"I think he wins here I think he gets it done I think the wrestling will be there I think the Striking is going to be better than armen's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Live bet strategy: if Makhachev wins first round, cash; if loses, get better live price. Also mentions hedging with Tsarukyan if parlay is alive.
"I expect michev to win the longer it goes but if he can win the first round oh we're money if he loses the first round you could get a better live price on it in the betting Market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Odds opened at -336, now -366; Arman opened +278, now +299. Connor thinks the line is too wide but is confident in Makhachev.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Daniel took Moicano at +305 and says he would take him at +300 against any 155-pounder. He mentions the fight being in LA with a large Armenian population as a factor.
"I would take plus 300 on him against anybody I mean right now that's how good of a fighter he is so it's definitely a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

Arman Tsarukyan at +310 is worth a one-unit shot for value
"I ultimately think Islam makev is going to come out with the win I think there's value in Arman surin's price tag at plus 310 he may be worth a one unit shot for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

fight goes to decision
"I think makev will create grappling opportunities that he will be able to come out ahead on it might be grindy it might be slow it might not be the most entertaining but I think makev will squeeze his way …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

Mentions Tsarukyan by knockout at +600 or +700 as a possible shot, but not banking on it.
"I think Islam retains as well minus 3557 at cool but is the best number on Market uh that I can see right now as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

decision
"mlam makev will win I think he'll win a close decision I think it'll be razor close"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:16 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 41 73% 72 of 86 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 11 54% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 51 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:48
2 Islam Makhachev 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Charles Oliveira 1 18 of 23 78% 21 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 19 of 39 48% 7 of 23 12 of 15 0 of 1 10 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 30 of 41 73% 25 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 11 54% 1 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4
Charles Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 3 of 3 4 of 5
2 Islam Makhachev 13 of 28 46% 6 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 18 of 23 78% 16 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.

"I like Islam to get the takedowns keep the control avoid the submissions I think islamankachev wins this fight I'm very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.

third round TKO
"I think Islam finishes some ground and pound TKO in that third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.

under in the fight
"ever so slightly I think I'm gonna go with uh my fellow Horseman Charles Oliveira"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.

"Even if Makhachev does end up in trouble so long as he isn't finished with one shot, we're gonna end up in a grappling sequence where Makhachev is just I think too dominant too technical."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.

Bet 2 units at -162. Notes that Islam is a discount at these odds compared to his usual -300 to -600 lines. Expects the fight to favor Islam as it goes longer.
"I actually bet islamicachev in the spa and I bet I'm at -162."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105; under 2.5 rounds at -160; fight doesn't go to decision as parlay piece
"give me my hot Chef inside the distance minus 105. I love his money line as well where it's at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.

bet at +285 and +175
"it's Charles Oliveira pass as far as I'm concerned I don't really understand jumping um at like 66 percent win percentage islamakachev in this situation whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.

guillotine in round one
"I've got Charles Oliveira winning this one dominantly"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.

"I think that Makhachev is going to find that if he gets in on takedowns against Charles Oliveira, Charles Oliveira is probably gonna give many of them up."
WIN vs King Green
TKO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Two-unit parlay with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at approximately -180
"i think he absolutely dismantles bobby green i think he blows through bobby green islam is absolutely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Makhachev by submission; line is accurate but Brady won't bet at -700
"I got mahachev no hot take um but i think he gets it done and i will not be betting on bobby green like a lot of people seem to be doing but i can tell you i will also …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Green by KO +1100 (DraftKings), hedge suggestion
"i like islam i like him a lot you know he's just like your boy could be nurmagomedov"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

fight goes the distance +250 (does not think it hits)
"i think he does make a statement i think he submits bobby green and i think he gets his title shot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Half-unit bet on Bobby Green at +550
"my pick's gonna be islam i'm not gonna pick bobby green but i'm just saying if there was ever anyone that could beat islam outside that top five it's gonna be bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go islam hachev and uh in terms of a method of victory since you guys are putting a gun to my head i have a hypothetical gun to my head i'm going to go with this lama chevy …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

sprinkle on Bobby Green +600, Green by KO +1100
"i'm kind of tempted cody to wait and see how how wide this line gets and then maybe just sprinkle on bobby green a little bit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission; odds are -800 (implied from 'eight to one favorite'); Makhachev by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go the third round very naked choke for islam makashev over bobby green"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Dustin Poirier - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 1 198 of 375 52% 201 of 378 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Dustin Poirier 1 109 of 255 42% 109 of 255 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 1 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dustin Poirier 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Holloway 0 44 of 67 65% 47 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Dustin Poirier 1 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 61 62% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Max Holloway 0 44 of 84 52% 44 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 22 of 68 32% 22 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 46 of 99 46% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 198 of 375 52% 103 of 253 64 of 80 31 of 42 182 of 351 0 of 1 16 of 23
Dustin Poirier 109 of 255 42% 94 of 235 6 of 10 9 of 10 102 of 243 3 of 6 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 26 of 64 40% 9 of 39 11 of 16 6 of 9 23 of 57 0 of 0 3 of 7
Dustin Poirier 16 of 32 50% 12 of 28 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 44 of 67 65% 31 of 52 11 of 12 2 of 3 31 of 51 0 of 0 13 of 16
Dustin Poirier 25 of 43 58% 21 of 36 3 of 5 1 of 2 19 of 34 2 of 3 4 of 6
3 Max Holloway 38 of 61 62% 18 of 36 9 of 12 11 of 13 38 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 21 of 49 42% 15 of 41 2 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 44 of 84 52% 23 of 57 15 of 18 6 of 9 44 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 22 of 68 32% 21 of 67 0 of 0 1 of 1 22 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 46 of 99 46% 22 of 69 18 of 22 6 of 8 46 of 98 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0 24 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.

Says he's not betting on this fight due to the circumstances.
"I am going to pick Max. I'm not going to bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.

Holloway by close decision; no bet due to close odds and hometown factor
"I'm going to lean the Holloway side, but I don't think I'm touching this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.

"I think Holloway can have that kind of performance again and win it this time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.

"I think his power punching approach will be a little bit more effective than the volume we saw from Holloway. And we saw that in their second matchup where Porier was able to win 4 to1 on the scorecards. And …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.

"I'm going with Max Holloway getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.

"That's kind of my feeling, too. Makes me very nervous."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 28 of 34 82% 30 of 37 0 of 1 0% 4 0 0:31
Benoît Saint Denis 0 50 of 74 67% 69 of 97 3 of 7 42% 1 0 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 12 of 13 92% 14 of 16 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:23
Benoît Saint Denis 0 38 of 49 77% 53 of 68 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
2 Dustin Poirier 1 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Benoît Saint Denis 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 28 of 34 82% 24 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 1 23 of 25 4 of 8 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 50 of 74 67% 25 of 46 18 of 20 7 of 8 17 of 37 31 of 35 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 12 of 13 92% 11 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 38 of 49 77% 21 of 31 10 of 10 7 of 8 13 of 22 23 of 25 2 of 2
2 Dustin Poirier 16 of 21 76% 13 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 15 1 of 5 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.

"I gotta go with Beno St Den here I don't know if I'm going to bet on it though I'm going to be fullon rooting for Dustin poer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.

win by second round submission
"I'm taking benois anony I think he gets this fight down to the mat eventually ... and I think he Subs him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.

"I'm still gonna go with porier you know um he follows me on Twitter I don't want to no it ain't about that you know um it's uh he's just so much more skilled it's just what does he have …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.

Vreeland says he can't get behind the moneyline at -205 but would use BSD in daily fantasy or pick his takedowns on Underdog.
"I can't take a guy in Benoît Saint Denis who went from knocking out Matt Frevola to fighting Dustin Poirier at negative 205 and confidently say yes this is a good line to play."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.

Fox says he won't bet real money on this fight but would use BSD in fantasy or prop bets.
"I'm going BSD haven't ever picked against him won't today."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.

Saint Denis by submission in rounds 1-2
"give me saon here I think he finds a submission within the first two rounds uh I feel pretty damn good about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.

round two TKO
"I think benoir beats the [ __ ] out of porier in round one beats the [ __ ] out of him in round two and finishes him on the ground in round two"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
KO (head kick) R2 1:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 41 of 66 62% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 27 of 52 51% 21 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 41 of 66 62% 23 of 48 7 of 7 11 of 11 38 of 63 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 27 of 51 52% 21 of 45 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 33 of 56 58% 18 of 41 5 of 5 10 of 10 31 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.

"I think it's gonna be more the same here Justin is tough he's dangerous Poirier is going to be Technical and I think he's going to out point for the win just like he did last time I don't think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.

late third round finish
"I'm gonna take Dustin for you to finish Justin gaichi late third round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.

"I'm gonna side with Dustin Poirier but like this is this fight you know we've already seen it it already kind of plays out like absolute chaos"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.

over 2.5 rounds (implied)
"I'm picking Dustin in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm leaning Dustin Poirier, leaning fight doesn't go to decision like I said as my favorite prediction for this matchup give me Poirier by knockout probably once again and the fourth possibly even fifth round of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul leans Gaethje due to plus money and Gaethje's proven ability to break opponents down in later rounds, referencing the Fiziev fight where Gaethje faded Fiziev in the third. He questions Poirier's durability and willingness to take damage at 34, noting Poirier's recent fights have been early finishes or high-damage affairs. He also highlights Gaethje's camp in Colorado producing good results. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and prefers the plus money ticket.

"I'm gonna end up going with just engaging fair enough"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 38 of 76 50% 63 of 105 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 43 of 100 43% 65 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 28 of 57 49% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 23 of 69 33% 24 of 73 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:05
2 Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 18 of 25 72% 39 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:34
3 Dustin Poirier 0 8 of 16 50% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 38 of 76 50% 34 of 71 2 of 2 2 of 3 32 of 66 3 of 4 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 43 of 100 43% 32 of 80 10 of 17 1 of 3 25 of 76 2 of 2 16 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 28 of 57 49% 25 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 23 of 69 33% 16 of 54 6 of 12 1 of 3 21 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Dustin Poirier 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 18 of 25 72% 16 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 21
3 Dustin Poirier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)

Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier

Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler

Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.

The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.

"Dustin Poirier is the pick but literally because Michael Chandler can't be trusted to try to win a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.

Poirier by KO in round 2; fight of the night candidate
"I think pooria does finish him this time around I think pooria does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.

"I'm drawn to Chandler here strictly because I expect chaos in this fight... I see a plus 190 price tag on a fight that I could really see going both ways."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.

Predicts a knockout win for Poirier; odds mentioned: Poirier -210, Chandler +180 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with poora here to knock out Michael Chandler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.

"I think that the safer and better fighter is Dustin Poirier I think he gets his hand raised here by knockout later in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.

Poirier by TKO at +120
"I'm gonna go the other side and take Dustin Poirier... I feel like Poirier puts him away and if he can put him away we're good... I'm gonna take the Poirier by TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.

TKO at the end of round one
"I'm going dust Emporia man Chandler gets hit too much"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:02 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 73 of 131 55% 98 of 157 0 of 6 0% 3 1 5:41
Dustin Poirier 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 48 of 92 52% 51 of 96 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Dustin Poirier 1 54 of 87 62% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Charles Oliveira 0 23 of 32 71% 45 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:27
Dustin Poirier 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Charles Oliveira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:48
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 73 of 131 55% 48 of 99 22 of 29 3 of 3 38 of 86 17 of 19 18 of 26
Dustin Poirier 58 of 94 61% 56 of 92 2 of 2 0 of 0 49 of 80 5 of 7 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 48 of 92 52% 28 of 66 17 of 23 3 of 3 35 of 76 13 of 15 0 of 1
Dustin Poirier 54 of 87 62% 52 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0 47 of 76 5 of 7 2 of 4
2 Charles Oliveira 23 of 32 71% 19 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 25
Dustin Poirier 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Charles Oliveira 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by submission in the second round, but with low confidence. He notes that Oliveira has improved immensely, answering questions about his cardio and chin. He believes Oliveira can get the fight to the mat, where he is a wizard, and submit Poirier. Poirier has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but has been taken down by grapplers like Dan Hooker. Brady is staying away from moneyline bets and is playing props.

Oliveira by submission in round 2
"i will take oliveira for the upset give me oliveira to win i'm going to say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the lightweight title. He emphasizes Poirier's finishing instinct, particularly his patented blitz when he hurts opponents, and his ability to throw high volume (350+ strikes in recent fights). Levi notes that Poirier has survived deep submission attempts before, unlike Michael Chandler who made a 'meathead error' against Oliveira. He believes Poirier's composure and experience on big stages will be key, and that he will hurt Oliveira standing and finish him without making a mistake.

"dustin poirier is going to hurt charles oliveira standing and he's not going to make the meathead mistake that a michael chandler made"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Poirier

This is a volatile fight. Poirier is the slightly better boxer and should weather Oliveira's early aggression. Oliveira's striking has improved, but Poirier's defensive soundness and experience in five-round fights give him an edge. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Poirier's finishing ability in later rounds is key. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' is a strong play.

fight doesn't go to decision, fight doesn't start round 5
"i'm going to be going with the pory side of things here i think he weathers that early storm and then eventually gets uh charles oliveira out of there i'm going to go dustin poirier and you round to tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Oliveira's check hook as a key weapon against Poirier's vulnerability to left hooks. He also notes Poirier's tendency to leave his neck exposed on the ground, as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira's confidence in his jiu-jitsu allows him to strike freely, while Poirier will be hesitant due to takedown threats.

first-round rear-naked choke; live bet on Poirier if fight goes to later rounds
"i'm going with my boy charlie olives and this is a switch up as well because originally i was thinking poirier but a while ago i switched to charlie olives"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.

Conor by KO/TKO at plus odds
"I think conor wins the i think he wins this fight i'm flipping my pick from the last go-around"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say conor mcgregor does get a first round knockout here against dustin poirier"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.

264 to 1 odds on first round KO via DraftKings promo; suggests live betting Poirier after round 1
"my pick for the purposes of the show right now is dustin poirier i haven't put any money on i want to see how the press conferences go"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.

Poirier by submission
"i'm going with dustin poury i'm gonna say this time by submission"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.

Conor wins in round 1
"i think conor wins this fight um so i've gone all the way back and i think conor does it i think he does in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.

under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, Poirier inside the distance, Poirier round 3, Poirier round 4, Poirier round 5
"i'm going to ultimately be on the poirier side here... i think poirier has the confidence now... and really start to put on mcgregor himself and then eventually finish him late in this fight probably in the third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.

suggests betting Poirier live after the first round
"i'm not i wouldn't rule mcgregor out but we got to go party that would be the logical pick especially at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dustin Poirier

The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.

Poirier wins by TKO in round 3
"poirier gets it done but i'm praying for mcgregor to win but i think poirier's gonna get this one done it'll be a more impressive performance by mcgregor but the inevitable outcome will be the same"
TKO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 48 of 91 52% 53 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Conor McGregor 0 29 of 66 43% 52 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 17 of 37 45% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Conor McGregor 0 15 of 34 44% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Dustin Poirier 1 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Conor McGregor 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 48 of 91 52% 30 of 69 0 of 1 18 of 21 46 of 89 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 29 of 66 43% 23 of 60 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 0 of 0 9 of 11 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 15 of 34 44% 12 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Poirier 31 of 54 57% 22 of 43 0 of 1 9 of 10 29 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 14 of 32 43% 11 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.

first round knockout
"i think conor mcgregor is going to do the same thing he did in their last fight i don't think it's going to be as early but i do think he's going to knock out dustin poirier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.

McGregor by early finish
"i'm gonna have to go with mcgregor here to get it done early unfortunately"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.

McGregor in round 1 (+175), McGregor in round 2 (+350), under 2.5 rounds (-175)
"I'll go with McGregor to win this fight by first round KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.

KO in first round, around 4-minute mark
"mcgregor's gonna be out landing poirier poirier is gonna get frustrated with losing the round he's gonna come forward with with a big exchange and when he does that he's gonna get ko'd the same way he did against michael …"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"