UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age N/A
Height N/A
Reach N/A
Weight N/A
Stance N/A
Career Averages - Jailton Almeida
2.23 SLpM
62.0% Str. Acc.
1.3 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
5.64 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov

No career stats available

Jailton Almeida - Fight History
LOSS vs Rizvan Kuniev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 31 of 67 46% 50 of 92 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:24
Rizvan Kuniev 0 43 of 93 46% 102 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 6:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 12 41% 14 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:11
Rizvan Kuniev 0 12 of 24 50% 33 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Jailton Almeida 0 8 of 21 38% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rizvan Kuniev 0 15 of 35 42% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 21 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:13
Rizvan Kuniev 0 16 of 34 47% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 31 of 67 46% 17 of 50 12 of 15 2 of 2 23 of 57 8 of 10 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 43 of 93 46% 31 of 77 11 of 15 1 of 1 22 of 65 21 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 12 of 24 50% 5 of 15 6 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 12 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Jailton Almeida 8 of 21 38% 4 of 14 4 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 15 of 35 42% 12 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 16 of 34 47% 14 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 25 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, calling him one of the best wrestling heavyweights ever. He notes Almeida's spectacular takedown execution and believes he will dominate Kuniev on the ground. He mentions that Almeida was robbed in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, where he had 7 takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. He advises jumping on the -220 line before it moves.

"Jolton's the pick. Very com minus 220. I would jump on that now before it's minus 400,000."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Big Brady picks Rizvan Kuniev as a dog, noting that Kuniev stuffed takedowns well against Curtis Blades, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. He believes Almeida has poor cardio and doesn't handle adversity well, and if Kuniev can stuff early takedowns, he will break and finish Almeida. He predicts a second-round knockout.

by second round knockout
"I'm going Kunov here... Give me Rizon Kunia by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Cody also picks Kuniev, highlighting Almeida's lack of size and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's control time doesn't score well with judges, and Kuniev's striking and clinch work should earn him rounds. Cody expects a decision win for Kuniev, with the over being a strong play.

over 1.5 rounds
"Kunay meanwhile... he's not going to hold you up against the cage and land shorts the whole time. It's not who he is."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Connor picks Kuniev, citing his solid takedown defense and steady, measured aggression. He believes Kuniev's simple, mistake-free style could be the recipe to handle Almeida, especially if Almeida can't get takedowns. He notes that Almeida's striking is poor and Kuniev could pressure him. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Kuniev's lack of UFC experience.

Same odds discussion.
"I might take Kunev actually."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Lucrative James picks Jailton Almeida to win by submission in round one. He believes Almeida's grappling will be too much for Kuniev, who showed poor takedown defense against Curtis Blades. James notes that Almeida is excellent at taking the back and finishing, while Kuniev is primarily a striker.

win in round 1
"My prediction for this fight is Jolton Almeida to win in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

The host picks Kuniev by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Kuniev can stop Almeida's takedowns and work back to his feet quickly, then outbox Almeida and take over as Almeida gasses. He notes Kuniev's striking and wrestling are underrated, and that Almeida struggles when he can't get takedowns.

round 2 or 3 TKO
"So, I'm going to go Kunv here. I think he gets that round two, round three TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Paul picks Rizvan Kuniev, citing Almeida's struggles with modern judging that favors damage over control time. He notes Kuniev's better boxing and durability, and Almeida's inability to finish or hold down bigger opponents. Paul expects Kuniev to land the more impactful strikes and edge a decision.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm not the biggest Rizon guy... but credit where credit's due, last fight he lost a decision that frankly most people scored for him against Curtis Blades."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

The host picks Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. He thinks Almeida's grappling will be too much, and he will out-scramble Kuniev. He notes Kuniev's conditioning may be an issue later in the fight. He expects Almeida to win, possibly boringly, and hopes he gets cut afterwards.

"I'm going to go with Jailton Almeida, a little bit too athletic."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida but acknowledges Kuniev's solid defensive wrestling and measured aggression. He notes that Kuniev's performance against Curtis Blades was impressive, but Blades has been disconnected from his wrestling. He thinks Almeida's relentless takedown attempts could overwhelm Kuniev, but if Kuniev stuffs them, Almeida could be in trouble.

Almeida opened at -550, currently -145; Kuniev opened at +420, currently +125. Zane likes the line, saying Almeida should be a slight favorite.
"I think I have to pick Almeida over three rounds, but Kunev is a dark course."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 24 of 27 88% 123 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:57
Jailton Almeida 0 9 of 10 90% 27 of 33 7 of 9 77% 0 0 10:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 15 100% 38 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:14
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:38
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jailton Almeida 0 4 of 5 80% 9 of 11 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:27
3 Alexander Volkov 0 7 of 8 87% 77 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 5 100% 17 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 24 of 27 88% 19 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 17
Jailton Almeida 9 of 10 90% 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 15 100% 15 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 15
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jailton Almeida 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Alexander Volkov 7 of 8 87% 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 5 of 5 100% 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.

"Jailton's wrestling at heavyweight is literally the best we have ever seen. ... I think he gets Volkov to the ground immediately. And I think he has him in trouble. I'm going to pick Jailton."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.

Almeida by first round submission
"I like Jailton here. I think he gets this fight down to the mat. I think he gets to a dominant position. I think he unloads with some ground and pound, and I think he eventually submits Alexander Volkov in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.

"I'm digging a little squeeze here. I'm digging a little squeeze. Can you be super confident? No, no. It's a middling heavyweight fight. But I got a path to victory here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to pick Volkov here. He just doesn't lose that many fights by getting submitted quickly. And I don't trust, uh, Almeida to just be able to easily positionally dominate him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.

wins by submission
"I'm going to pick Jelton Almeida to come out here, take down Alexander Volkov, submit him, and secure himself that UFC title shot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.

"I'm going to pick Alexander Volkov because I'm going to pick the value side, but I'm actually predicting Jolton to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Almeida will be able to chuck that off, get to his dominant positions, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.

"I agree with those the those sentiments. I mean, yeah, Jailton sub early is is definitely always on the table. Very good at getting those takedowns early. The cardio is falling off, especially when he really has to press."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.

Volkov by late rounds TKO; Volkov is an underdog
"I'm going to go with Alexander Volkov late rounds finish against Jailton Almeida."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.

"I'll pick Almeida. I'll pick Almeida. Oh, I'm checking it out. All right. Well, now, now, you know what this means. We're both going to be wrong."
TKO (punches) R1 4:53 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
KO (punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 25 64% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 9 of 11 9 of 13 69% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 8 of 8 9 of 12 75% 0 0 4:39
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 16 of 25 64% 16 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Waiting for plus money on Almeida; if he gets plus money, he will place a bet.
"J is going to take him down and Curtis blades isn't Derrick Lewis with the uppercut J is the pick I'm going to be waiting for that line movement tracker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

win by first round submission
"give me Almeida Almeida to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

"it's blades for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

"I'm gonna lean with gton almea just because I think he's more trustworthy but I'm very aware about what could go wrong in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Blaydes by decision
"blades should have the advantages in this matchup blades should be able to drag this fight to the ground or at least stop the takedowns of Almeida hopefully utilize his footwork land some good strikes from the outside and then …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

"I got blades as well just like it seems like stylistically this is his fight to lose"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.

decision
"I'm going to take Jon Alida getting onto the hips of blades and just being better than him ... I think he will win a decision"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 38 of 56 67% 120 of 153 6 of 15 40% 4 1 21:10
Derrick Lewis 0 20 of 39 51% 28 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:36
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jailton Almeida 0 6 of 8 75% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:19
Derrick Lewis 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jailton Almeida 0 19 of 29 65% 33 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:57
Derrick Lewis 0 5 of 15 33% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
4 Jailton Almeida 0 2 of 2 100% 28 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:23
Derrick Lewis 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 27 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:55
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 38 of 56 67% 32 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 7 3 of 8 30 of 41
Derrick Lewis 20 of 39 51% 17 of 33 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 11 of 15 73% 8 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12
Derrick Lewis 6 of 11 54% 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10
2 Jailton Almeida 6 of 8 75% 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Derrick Lewis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 19 of 29 65% 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 16 of 21
Derrick Lewis 5 of 15 33% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12
4 Jailton Almeida 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
5 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Derrick Lewis 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)

Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)

The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.

line tightening from -475 to -450, would bet more if it continues
"the fact that JT NOA is only a minus 450 favorite the fact that that line is tightening instead of widening confuses the hell out of me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.

"I got to go g and Alida to get this done and get it done by by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.

Almeida wins inside distance, Almeida by submission, Almeida by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision, Almeida and fight to start round 3
"I think he dominates his fight... I think he finishes him within two rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.

James places a same-game parlay: Almeida 1+ takedown, Almeida wins in round 1, Almeida wins by submission. He also mentions a degenerate parlay including Almeida by submission.
"I honestly think that jonel made it is going to submit Derrick Lewis in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.

under 1.5 rounds; Almeida round one
"I really like Almeida in this spot, I really think under one and a half is probably the way to go... give me Almeida, Almeida round one, under one and a half probably the safest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

"gotta go jailon Al MAA... I think Jon's going to get him down drag him down stay on him... TKO to ground and pound"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 45 of 57 78% 89 of 110 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 14 of 17 82% 25 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:45
2 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 31 of 40 77% 64 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 45 of 57 78% 44 of 55 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 44 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 14 of 17 82% 14 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 15
2 Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 31 of 40 77% 30 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 37
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.

first round TKO
"you can't pick Shamil here you can't even think about picking Shamil here it would be a massive upset a massive massive upset give me Charlton gelatin I'll say first round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.

considers over 1.5 rounds at +275; mentions Almeida inside the distance props
"I feel like gelatin rolls him up like I don't know that I would say he's minus 900 because again heavyweights heavyweights be heavyweights don't want to go down that road like I get it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.

"Almeida is a great athlete in stupendous condition and a tremendously skilled wrestler and grappler."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.

mentions Almeida inside the distance; says Almeida by submission is -175
"I got all made I'll chase a better price but going on made it inside the distance I'm made of my submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.

submission in first round
"I reckon he's going to win this one via naked choke in the first round again I think this is going to be a walkover for jail tonight made her he's on the source"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.

Fight doesn't go to decision -1200, Almeida inside distance -550, Almeida by submission -165
"You just have to assume that an athlete like Almeida can literally fumble his way through that dangerous range, eat whatever he's got to eat, get his hands on Shamil and ragdoll him."
Alexandr Romanov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 45 of 92 48% 87 of 135 6 of 10 60% 1 0 7:33
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 31 of 91 34% 48 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 36 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:47
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 1 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 28 60% 26 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:46
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 34 29% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 26 of 59 44% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 45 of 92 48% 37 of 82 3 of 5 5 of 5 39 of 79 4 of 8 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 31 of 91 34% 19 of 77 7 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 28 60% 14 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 34 29% 7 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 26 of 59 44% 21 of 54 1 of 1 4 of 4 24 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 56 35% 12 of 47 3 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.

bet on Romanov at +115
"I did bet on him at plus 115 I just saw the underdog money I believe in them I am a simp for wrestlers just a FYI so you know love it hate it tail it fade it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.

submission in round 2
"I got to go naso here just based out the fact that he is a BJJ black belt... I'll take naso second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.

"I think Romanov can just strictly win a striking fight and I think he can mix in a few takedowns along the way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.

"I'm GNA pick uh Nasim Mena"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.

finish late
"I believe Nascimento will be able to stay out of too much danger allowing him to pull away in the second and third rounds and probably getting a finish late."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.

"I'll side with Romanov and the fact that he should be able to dictate range of this fight if he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.

TKO early, maybe first round finish, good odds
"I'm going to go with Alexander Romanov here to get it done over Rodrigo and asento maybe by TKO early or maybe a finish in the first round might be some good odds here"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 85 of 154 55% 104 of 180 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:53
Blagoy Ivanov 0 44 of 108 40% 44 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Blagoy Ivanov 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 22 of 41 53% 38 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Blagoy Ivanov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 46 of 82 56% 49 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 85 of 154 55% 52 of 121 11 of 11 22 of 22 74 of 137 4 of 4 7 of 13
Blagoy Ivanov 44 of 108 40% 38 of 102 5 of 5 1 of 1 44 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 31 54% 5 of 19 5 of 5 7 of 7 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 22 of 41 53% 12 of 31 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 46 of 82 56% 35 of 71 4 of 4 7 of 7 40 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 10
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 51 43% 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.

waiting for weigh-ins; potential bet on Ivanov if Romanov looks out of shape
"right now the pick is going to be Ivanov I the pig is going to be blue Ivanov because Alexander romanov's last two fights he had one round of cardio"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.

third round finish
"I'll say he takes over I'll say third round finish four but goal even off"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.

Live bet Romanov after first round if he looks good
"I am going to pick Romanov but the best way to attack this thing is live"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.

"pre weigh-ins I'ma go blagoy because at least I know like is going to give his best"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.

Ivanov round 3 at 12-1
"I'm gonna take every single time the guy has proven time and time again against Elite level competition that he can fight 15 minutes we haven't seen that from Romanov so yeah it's black boy black boy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.

forearm choke submission
"I'm gonna go with Alexander Romanov here over blogore Ivanov I I have to pick Romanov to win"
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)

Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round you see …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can make it …"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 98 47% 82 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 40 of 88 45% 95 of 160 2 of 6 33% 0 1 5:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 14 of 18 77% 64 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:27
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 36 47% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 11 of 25 44% 16 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:35
3 Marcin Tybura 0 30 of 59 50% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 98 47% 30 of 74 10 of 17 7 of 7 43 of 92 2 of 4 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 40 of 88 45% 24 of 65 7 of 12 9 of 11 21 of 65 9 of 12 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 14 of 18 77% 8 of 10 0 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 1 6 of 8 8 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 36 47% 10 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 11 of 25 44% 9 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Marcin Tybura 30 of 59 50% 20 of 43 6 of 12 4 of 4 29 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 15 of 45 33% 7 of 33 5 of 8 3 of 4 13 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.

Placed moneyline bets on Romanov.
"i am still all in on romanov i think he's too big too fast and too athletic for the lumbering taebora"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.

Romanov by decision
"i'll take uh alexander romanov i think his cardio does hold up and i do think he wins the decision but i think ty burr is going to have some success late if romanov does slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.

"i still think the the big the big roman era sorry the big moldovan fighter gets the job done and once the night's done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.

Says he is not in a rush to play the line because there's no value, but he thinks Romanov wins at least two rounds if not a finish. Mentions that Tybura has been taken down before (by Derrick Lewis, etc.).
"I'm going to remind off to grind this one up and I think taboro will be back for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Mentions Romanov inside the distance as likely, but no bet placed.
"I just can't get to the betting window to bet that marching taiboro side i really can't do it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"romanov over two and a half takedowns on prize picks before we get out of there um i mean that's a good lie romanov three he had three against sherman and finished them in the first round five against vander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.

TKO in round 1
"alexander romanov gets this one done by first round tko"
WIN vs Chase Sherman
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Juan Espino
Technical Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 32 of 53 60% 53 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 5:41
Juan Espino 0 12 of 22 54% 44 of 56 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Juan Espino 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:28
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 27 of 44 61% 38 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Juan Espino 0 6 of 13 46% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Juan Espino 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 4 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 4 of 4 5 of 5 8 of 20 6 of 6 18 of 27
Juan Espino 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 17 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 5 of 9 55% 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Juan Espino 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Alexandr Romanov 27 of 44 61% 23 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 15 2 of 2 18 of 27
Juan Espino 6 of 13 46% 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Juan Espino 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.

Considered over but passed
"i'm gonna take espino to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.

"i'm a romanov guy so i'm going to bank on romanov again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.

finish
"i'm going with ramana to to finish juan espino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.

Romanov by TKO +250; Romanov in round 2 +525; over 1.5 rounds -125
"i got to go with romanov and i'm going to be going with the tko probably round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.

"i think it's espino or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.

second round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going to go with alexander romanov here but it's risky"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"